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Old 10th February 2020, 07:51 AM   #41
Thermal
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Good one.
So, write off the ones who wish to get pizza, tacos, or roast beef, and try to pick up the three who at least want to go to a burger place.
Fun part is, there are those who prefer to get a healthy meal, but they will end up stuck with the garbage preferred by the mob.
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Old 10th February 2020, 07:59 AM   #42
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I suppose I qualify as a swing voter, in a swing state. This is due to the fact that I don't have "lifetime" passions that sway my votes (like abortion, for instance.) So I'll have different issues that interest me in different elections. Also, the type of election makes a big difference-I vote locally much different than nationally.

Plus, there's that whole pesky "fiscally conservative, socially liberal" thing. I guess that sort of goes hand-in-hand with the previous paragraph, though. And so my vote may be based on which one is more important to me at the time.

And finally, we're all skeptics here. It would be crazy to presume that my politics wouldn't be dynamic over time as I learn new things.
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Old 10th February 2020, 08:38 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
Thanks. I came here to see if anyone had posted that yet. She correctly predicted the House swing in the mid-terms within one vote (42 seats) in 2016, and now she's saying that in 2020 the Dems will keep the house, take the presidency and maybe take the Senate. I like her characterization of the idea of 15% swing voters who flit back and forth between parties - "The Chuck Todd Theory of American Politics."

I find the idea intriguing, as someone who protest-voted for the Libertarians last time, and honestly might not even bother to vote for President again this time except for another protest vote. I feel like several voting blocs might self-suppress their votes this time.
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Old 12th February 2020, 11:10 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
Disagree somewhat - I think young voters could be tapped into and they would *probably* lean to the left.
The Millenials lean left on average, but Gen Z is said to be uber-conservative. Which worries me greatly.
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Old 12th February 2020, 11:11 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by carlitos View Post
Thanks. I came here to see if anyone had posted that yet. She correctly predicted the House swing in the mid-terms within one vote (42 seats) in 2016, and now she's saying that in 2020 the Dems will keep the house, take the presidency and maybe take the Senate. I like her characterization of the idea of 15% swing voters who flit back and forth between parties - "The Chuck Todd Theory of American Politics."

I find the idea intriguing, as someone who protest-voted for the Libertarians last time, and honestly might not even bother to vote for President again this time except for another protest vote. I feel like several voting blocs might self-suppress their votes this time.
Of course her theory assumes honest elections.
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Old 12th February 2020, 11:18 PM   #46
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I think I probably qualify as a swing voter. I voted for Reagan twice, against Bush 41, for Bill Clinton twice, for Bush 43 once, for Obama twice, and against Trump. I wouldn't have been horribly upset if Kasich v Hillary had gone Republican, but I would have preferred Hillary.
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Old 13th February 2020, 07:41 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by ChristianProgressive View Post
The Millenials lean left on average, but Gen Z is said to be uber-conservative. Which worries me greatly.
Who says that?
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Old 13th February 2020, 09:05 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
Who says that?
Christian Progressives
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Old 13th February 2020, 06:26 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
And at the end of the day that's that's being said or indeed really can be said.

Yes there is some viable, probably fairly large, percentage of people who aren't going to reliably either vote or vote for one of the two major parties.

There's just not a practical way to reach out to them as a voting block because they don't have a central philosophy to sell anything to.

They all want someone who isn't either a mainstream Democrat or Republican, but beyond that what they do want is all over the map.

You have 30 people who you have to plan a dinner for. 10 want to go McDonalds, 10 want to go to Burger King, and in the last 10 you get 1 person each who wants to go to Wendys, Papa Johns, White Castle, Whataburger, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, Subway, Chick-Fil-A, Arbys, and Panda Express.

Those 10 people just don't have the power the other two groups of 10 do.
someone already posted this link: An Unsettling New Theory: There Is No Swing Voter

No idea if its correct, but it seems to make some sense in so much how pollsters and politicians have been getting it wrong lately (apart from Trump - though I think he was surprised as much as anyone else).

Quote:
Bitecofer’s theory, when you boil it down, is that modern American elections are rarely shaped by voters changing their minds, but rather by shifts in who decides to vote in the first place. To her critics, she’s an extreme apostle of the old saw that “turnout explains everything,” taking a long victory lap after getting lucky one time. She sees things slightly differently: That the last few elections show that American politics really has changed, and other experts have been slow to process what it means.
The classic view is that the pool of American voters is basically fixed: About 55 percent of eligible voters are likely to go to the polls, and the winner is determined by the 15 percent or so of “swing voters” who flit between the parties. So a general election campaign amounts to a long effort to pull those voters in to your side.

I'd tend to go along with this below too:

Quote:
Bitecofer has a nickname for this view. She calls it, with disdain, the “Chuck Todd theory of American politics”: “The idea that there is this informed, engaged American population that is watching these political events and watching their elected leaders and assessing their behavior and making a judgment. And it is just not true.”
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Old 13th February 2020, 09:23 PM   #50
ChristianProgressive
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
Who says that?
Here's just one article. Plenty of others. Do your Google.

Quote:
A recent Zogby poll found that nearly half of Gen Z voters ages 18-24 approve of President Trump, while a separate Morning Consult survey found that their support for Bernie Sanders dropped sharply from 45% to 33% in the past three months. These findings are consistent with a number of other studies that have found young people are swinging conservative, and the reasons go far beyond the typical allure to youth of countering the prevailing culture.

Having spent their formative years coping with the tumultuous financial times of the Great Recession and the volatile safety climate of the war on terrorism, Gen Z is notably pragmatic and discerning. Unlike Millennials, who were shaped by opportunity and prosperity, nudged along by their “helicopter” Baby Boomer parents, Gen Z was shaped by national turmoil, devastating housing foreclosures, dwindling safety nets, and preoccupied parents. Their first-hand experience of the failing prospects of the American Dream instilled in them a sense of instability and skepticism that remains today.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...z__141066.html
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