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Tags 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

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Old 6th January 2020, 11:58 PM   #161
The Great Zaganza
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My hunch is that the Assassination of Suleimani will help Biden because of his experience and Sanders because of his anti-war credentials.
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Old 7th January 2020, 12:06 AM   #162
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My current thoughts:

Bloomberg vs Steyer.

I could give a rip that they are both rich. It's just as stupid to use that as a filter as it is to say I'm not going to vote for any white male.

Bloomberg is putting out incredibly effective ads. There's no way he would lose to Trump, I don't care what Biden is polling.

I watched a campaign event with Steyer tonight. I agree with everything he stands for and in no way is he disingenuous. This is the candidate we need. But he's the candidate for the liberal intellectual. He's got to step up his game.
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Old 7th January 2020, 01:27 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
My current thoughts:

Bloomberg vs Steyer.

I could give a rip that they are both rich. It's just as stupid to use that as a filter as it is to say I'm not going to vote for any white male.

Bloomberg is putting out incredibly effective ads. There's no way he would lose to Trump, I don't care what Biden is polling.

I watched a campaign event with Steyer tonight. I agree with everything he stands for and in no way is he disingenuous. This is the candidate we need. But he's the candidate for the liberal intellectual. He's got to step up his game.
May I ask what makes you think the ads are effective? Which ones? Where are they being broadcast? And how you come to the conclusion that he could not lose to Trump? Is there polling on this? Or do you know people who voted Trump who are swayed by Bloomberg?
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Old 7th January 2020, 02:07 AM   #164
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
I would guess that the experienced, high quality people would have been hired by the early contenders. I wonder if his money is buying the staff he would really like to have.
There are probably quality staffers to be picked up from the Harris, Castro (and soon) Booker campaigns. But the bigger point is that Bloomberg isn't even focused on the early states like everybody else. He's buying up the best staff in the later states.

It's an interesting strategy. On the one hand, he loses out on the earned media that whoever wins Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will receive. But suppose for a moment that those states go Buttigieg, Sanders and Biden, a not unlikely scenario. As they shift resources to the later states, they will find that Bloomberg has been already been bombarding the airwaves with his ads.

The problem for Bloomberg (as I see it) is that he doesn't really fit any traditional lane among the Democrats. He's obviously not progressive, not minority (well he is Jewish, but that doesn't seem to come up much, for which we can be thankful), not an environmentalist and not a woman. He seems to be trying to run in Biden and Buttigieg's lane as Mr Electable.

Which might ironically work in Sanders' or Warren's favor. Sanders seems to be the flavor of the month, but I would not send Warren's campaign to the happy hunting grounds yet.
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Old 7th January 2020, 03:15 AM   #165
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Do we know if quality of staffers even matter?
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Old 7th January 2020, 06:30 AM   #166
The Great Zaganza
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Do we know if quality of staffers even matter?
the example of Kamala Harris suggests that they do.
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Old 7th January 2020, 06:37 AM   #167
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
the example of Kamala Harris suggests that they do.
How so? How do you isolate it to staffers and not any other issue with the candidate herself or other variables outside of their control?
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Old 7th January 2020, 06:52 AM   #168
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Also politics are emotional. Some of the best campaign strategists are dispassionate mercenaries. But most people working on the campaign believe in the candidate they're working for.

Bloomberg is a little late to hire any of the top mercenaries. So his campaign is being worked by bench warmer mercs, clock watching wage slaves, and whatever "Bloomberg for president" true believers that are actually out there. And close personal friends.
He does own a media company. He may have had a few in his pocket on retainer waiting for the right time.
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Old 7th January 2020, 06:53 AM   #169
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
the example of Kamala Harris suggests that they do.
Obama in 2008 and O'Rourke's early senate run as well. Get some smart and passionate people on your side and you''l blow up expectations.
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Old 7th January 2020, 08:22 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
Obama in 2008 and O'Rourke's early senate run as well. Get some smart and passionate people on your side and you''l blow up expectations.
You are not demonstrating that you are controlling for other variables in your assessment.
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Old 7th January 2020, 08:40 AM   #171
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
My current thoughts:

Bloomberg vs Steyer.

I could give a rip that they are both rich. It's just as stupid to use that as a filter as it is to say I'm not going to vote for any white male.

Bloomberg is putting out incredibly effective ads. There's no way he would lose to Trump, I don't care what Biden is polling.

I watched a campaign event with Steyer tonight. I agree with everything he stands for and in no way is he disingenuous. This is the candidate we need. But he's the candidate for the liberal intellectual. He's got to step up his game.
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
May I ask what makes you think the ads are effective? Which ones? Where are they being broadcast? And how you come to the conclusion that he could not lose to Trump? Is there polling on this? Or do you know people who voted Trump who are swayed by Bloomberg?
As I said just upthread, I'm finding Steyer's ads more effective, though I couldn't actually say why. I don't recall seeing ads for anyone but those two. We'll probably have to get by Iowa and NH to start seeing others.
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Old 7th January 2020, 08:43 AM   #172
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
As I said just upthread, I'm finding Steyer's ads more effective, though I couldn't actually say why. I don't recall seeing ads for anyone but those two. We'll probably have to get by Iowa and NH to start seeing others.
What is your history of being affected by ads? Do product ads work on you?
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Old 7th January 2020, 09:05 AM   #173
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Bloomberg is putting out incredibly effective ads.
What does this mean?

Is he putting out ads that say stuff you agree with?

Is he putting out ads that change your mind on stuff you feel strongly about?

Is he putting out ads that have good results according to reputable opinion polls?

What kind of good results? Good results versus Trump? Or good results versus the other candidates he's actually competing with at the moment?
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Old 7th January 2020, 10:48 AM   #174
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Bernie Sanders is the most effective candidate so far.

Democratic insiders who for years have been brushing him off have recognized that he could win the nomination. And they're no doubt worried.
He does the most with less. The least big money funding. The least mainstream media coverage given his favorability among registered Democrats.

It's only a matter of time before Joe Biden's name recognition sugar high wears off.
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Old 7th January 2020, 10:59 AM   #175
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Most effective? Or most efficient?
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Old 7th January 2020, 11:08 AM   #176
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Most effective? Or most efficient?
I'd say both.

And for somebody often regarded as not having much of a chance to win he sure scares the bejeezus out of established heavies of both parties.
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Old 7th January 2020, 11:22 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post

It's only a matter of time before Joe Biden's name recognition sugar high wears off.
I can't imagine the effect getting any better for him, at least. Name recognition is most useful when people aren't really paying close attention. As we get closer to real voting, name recognition alone will become less valuable.

I'm hoping that anything but a strong win in the early states will pretty much tank Biden's support.

A win for Bernie in these early states would be huge. Seems that many of the pundits are determined to cover him as a fringe candidate, despite his consistently strong performance.
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Old 7th January 2020, 11:39 AM   #178
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
What is your history of being affected by ads? Do product ads work on you?
Much as we like to deny it, they work on everyone to some degree. Even if it's just getting you aware the product exists.
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Old 7th January 2020, 11:41 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
...I'm hoping that anything but a strong win in the early states will pretty much tank Biden's support.

A win for Bernie in these early states would be huge. Seems that many of the pundits are determined to cover him as a fringe candidate, despite his consistently strong performance.
So far it looks like Sanders is pretty much tied with Biden (and Buttigieg) in Iowa. He's first place in New Hampshire by a small margin. Second in Nevada.

Sanders has a significantly more enthusiastic level of support compared to Biden or Buttigieg in these early states, according to YouGov.

A good chunk of Biden's support is because he's regarded as the safe choice, thinking Sanders is "too far left", again, the self-fulfilling prophecy, but there's no indication that they wouldn't vote for Sanders in the general.
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Old 7th January 2020, 09:08 PM   #180
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Do we know if quality of staffers even matter?
Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
How so? How do you isolate it to staffers and not any other issue with the candidate herself or other variables outside of their control?
Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
You are not demonstrating that you are controlling for other variables in your assessment.
Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
What is your history of being affected by ads? Do product ads work on you?
This is politics, Bob. In particular, this thread centers on a very, very messy political process that won't end for months and months and one in which we all express our OPINIONS. If you want precision, accuracy and hard facts, go somewhere else.
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Old 7th January 2020, 11:08 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
So far it looks like Sanders is pretty much tied with Biden (and Buttigieg) in Iowa. He's first place in New Hampshire by a small margin. Second in Nevada.

Sanders has a significantly more enthusiastic level of support compared to Biden or Buttigieg in these early states, according to YouGov.

A good chunk of Biden's support is because he's regarded as the safe choice, thinking Sanders is "too far left", again, the self-fulfilling prophecy, but there's no indication that they wouldn't vote for Sanders in the general.
Last I saw, I think it was about 1/3 of the people for Biden were pretty much there because he was polling the highest/was being claimed to be most electable. As for indications about Bernie... depends what you count as an indication. Last I saw, Bernie and Biden's favorability ratings were roughly tied, with both having quite a significant number of people who would be disappointed if they were nominated.
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Old 8th January 2020, 05:50 AM   #182
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
This is politics, Bob. In particular, this thread centers on a very, very messy political process that won't end for months and months and one in which we all express our OPINIONS. If you want precision, accuracy and hard facts, go somewhere else.
This is a skepticism forum. This is the place where claims of fact (that isn't just an opinion) should not be uttered if it doesn't survive skeptical inquiry.

Sounds like you are in the wrong place. Everywhere else spouts off claims of fact that are devoid of analysis. This is the one place that would be different.
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Old 8th January 2020, 07:59 AM   #183
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
This is politics, Bob. In particular, this thread centers on a very, very messy political process that won't end for months and months and one in which we all express our OPINIONS. If you want precision, accuracy and hard facts, go somewhere else.
Spoilsport! I was looking forward to a scientific study concerning the impact of ads on Trebuchet.
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Old 8th January 2020, 09:25 AM   #184
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Spoilsport! I was looking forward to a scientific study concerning the impact of ads on Trebuchet.
I have no opinion on that.
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Old 8th January 2020, 12:02 PM   #185
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I have no opinion on that.
But if you watched my ad you would.
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Old 8th January 2020, 12:43 PM   #186
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This article on The Root, backed up by evidence, paints an even uglier picture of mayor Pete than was previously known nationally with regards to racism in his police force. Among other issues, the black police who left the force all described rampant racism as their reason for reason, with several filing EEOC complaint. Emails, meeting requests, complaints, and public statements, were apparently *all* unheard by one Mayor Pete. More disturbingly, the black fire chief and mayor's assistant had also been removed soon after he came into office. I can see him replacing his own assistant with a trusted ally, possibly, but police *and* fire chiefs as well?

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Old 8th January 2020, 01:21 PM   #187
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
May I ask what makes you think the ads are effective? Which ones? Where are they being broadcast? And how you come to the conclusion that he could not lose to Trump? Is there polling on this? Or do you know people who voted Trump who are swayed by Bloomberg?
I don't know if Bloomberg's ads are playing in your area but the ones playing here other Democrats should be paying attention to.

Bloomberg is in the ads with 'the people' saying all the popular things he plans to do because he did them in NY.

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Old 8th January 2020, 01:29 PM   #188
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
As I said just upthread, I'm finding Steyer's ads more effective, though I couldn't actually say why. I don't recall seeing ads for anyone but those two. We'll probably have to get by Iowa and NH to start seeing others.
Just the fact Steyer is entering the TV ad market makes him more effective than the candidates that aren't. They're both investing significant money.

Steyer says the right things in his ads: climate change and taking Trump out. He looks mild mannered which is fine for me.

Bloomberg is much more forceful, names a slew of things: healthcare, jobs, gun control, and touts having done specific things addressing those same issues in NY as experience.

For the average voter, Bloomberg looks better.
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Old 8th January 2020, 01:33 PM   #189
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
What does this mean?

Is he putting out ads that say stuff you agree with?

Is he putting out ads that change your mind on stuff you feel strongly about?

Is he putting out ads that have good results according to reputable opinion polls?

What kind of good results? Good results versus Trump? Or good results versus the other candidates he's actually competing with at the moment?
It means, I know a good ad when I see one. I don't care if you believe that.

As for stuff I agree with, you don't need to be insulting.

The polls don't yet reflect these ads.
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Old 8th January 2020, 01:41 PM   #190
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Bernie Sanders is the most effective candidate so far.

Democratic insiders who for years have been brushing him off have recognized that he could win the nomination. And they're no doubt worried.
He does the most with less. The least big money funding. The least mainstream media coverage given his favorability among registered Democrats.

It's only a matter of time before Joe Biden's name recognition sugar high wears off.
All those things were said last time and he lost the primary.

You need some evidence supporting the claim Party insiders are working against either Sanders or Warren. All he had last time was the debate schedule that was rectified.

Then there were Party leaders individually supporting Clinton, like a lot of us. You can't expect the DNC leaders to work to elect the candidate they aren't going to vote for. IMO Sanders overplayed this card to his detriment.


OTOH, I'm quite annoyed the MSM isn't noting that Biden's lead is only because Sanders and Warren split the vote. They could at least stop treating Biden as if he is already the candidate. So I agree with you there.
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Old 8th January 2020, 01:45 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
This article on The Root, backed up by evidence, paints an even uglier picture of mayor Pete than was previously known nationally with regards to racism in his police force. Among other issues, the black police who left the force all described rampant racism as their reason for reason, with several filing EEOC complaint. Emails, meeting requests, complaints, and public statements, were apparently *all* unheard by one Mayor Pete. More disturbingly, the black fire chief and mayor's assistant had also been removed soon after he came into office. I can see him replacing his own assistant with a trusted ally, possibly, but police *and* fire chiefs as well?
More IMO: Buttigieg was the media's darling. That's wearing off.

And the longer the campaign goes on and Biden's honeymoon is over, all his awful gaffes will get more air time.
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Old 8th January 2020, 03:23 PM   #192
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
All those things were said last time and he lost the primary.
He was the new guy last time and fairly slow to get his name out there, partly because of the pitiful coverage he received compared to the loudmouth on the other side.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
You need some evidence supporting the claim Party insiders are working against either Sanders or Warren. All he had last time was the debate schedule that was rectified.
I'm not saying they're actively working against them, but they're worried.
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Old 8th January 2020, 03:30 PM   #193
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
It means, I know a good ad when I see one. I don't care if you believe that.
Of course you care. If you didn't care what people thought about your ad opinions, you wouldn't have posted them.

You claimed Bloomberg is putting out incredibly effective ads. Your explanation of how you know this is that you just know it. Is that really the extent of your qualifications?
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Old 8th January 2020, 04:23 PM   #194
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Of course you care. If you didn't care what people thought about your ad opinions, you wouldn't have posted them.

You claimed Bloomberg is putting out incredibly effective ads. Your explanation of how you know this is that you just know it. Is that really the extent of your qualifications?
You missed this, apparently:
Originally Posted by SG
I don't care if you believe that.
This is a tad different than my professional education and experience. I don't expect people to remember what different forum members' skills are. But there are some people here I've seen enough of their posts to know what professional and lay skills they might have.

I have been posting about messaging, marketing and propaganda since I joined the JREF in 2005. I presented (was chosen) a Sunday Paper (talk) at TAM 5 (2007) on the subject titled "Deciphering the Language Code". I spoke about George Lakoff, framing and narratives as far back as that. And I have posted about Frank Luntz's focus groups and his book, Words that Work ad nauseum when GW was in office.

My posts speak for themselves. If you don't believe a particular claim or opinion I've posed on the subject of narratives, framing, propaganda or marketing you are welcome to do your own research. This is not a subject I feel particularly obligated to post a thesis bibliography on.
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TRUMP CHEATS What color hat should I order with that logo? Red on black maybe? Or black on pink?

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Because feeding poor people is socialism.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 8th January 2020 at 04:28 PM.
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Old 8th January 2020, 04:34 PM   #195
theprestige
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
You missed this, apparently:
I saw that, but assumed (wrongly, I guess) that you weren't making this personal about me.

Quote:
My posts speak for themselves. If you don't believe a particular claim or opinion I've posed on the subject of narratives, framing, propaganda or marketing you are welcome to do your own research. This is not a subject I feel particularly obligated to post a thesis bibliography on.
That which can be claimed without evidence can be rejected without evidence.
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Old 8th January 2020, 04:35 PM   #196
Delphic Oracle
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
You missed this, apparently:

This is a tad different than my professional education and experience. I don't expect people to remember what different forum members' skills are. But there are some people here I've seen enough of their posts to know what professional and lay skills they might have.

I have been posting about messaging, marketing and propaganda since I joined the JREF in 2005. I presented (was chosen) a Sunday Paper (talk) at TAM 5 (2007) on the subject titled "Deciphering the Language Code". I spoke about George Lakoff, framing and narratives as far back as that. And I have posted about Frank Luntz's focus groups and his book, Words that Work ad nauseum when GW was in office.

My posts speak for themselves. If you don't believe a particular claim or opinion I've posed on the subject of narratives, framing, propaganda or marketing you are welcome to do your own research. This is not a subject I feel particularly obligated to post a thesis bibliography on.
Always love it when just an example or two would suffice, several paragraphs are written explaining why that won't happen, and then finished off with lament over the effort it would take.

Really, it takes very little effort to post "I will not defend my premise" and leave it at that.

Last edited by Delphic Oracle; 8th January 2020 at 04:36 PM.
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Old 8th January 2020, 07:48 PM   #197
Skeptic Ginger
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I saw that, but assumed (wrongly, I guess) that you weren't making this personal about me.
Oh grow up. It wasn't personal about you. It was a specific reply to your personal post.
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TRUMP CHEATS What color hat should I order with that logo? Red on black maybe? Or black on pink?

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Old 8th January 2020, 07:50 PM   #198
Skeptic Ginger
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Always love it when just an example or two would suffice, several paragraphs are written explaining why that won't happen, and then finished off with lament over the effort it would take.

Really, it takes very little effort to post "I will not defend my premise" and leave it at that.
I did defend my premise, I cited my years of expertise demonstrated on this forum.

And more importantly, there is no simple answer. Some things are like that.
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TRUMP CHEATS What color hat should I order with that logo? Red on black maybe? Or black on pink?

Space Force.
Because feeding poor people is socialism.
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Old 8th January 2020, 07:51 PM   #199
theprestige
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Oh grow up. It wasn't personal about you. It was a specific reply to your personal post.
You're the one who claimed personal expertise.
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Old 8th January 2020, 07:53 PM   #200
Skeptic Ginger
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
You're the one who claimed personal expertise.
Just to review, you said this:
Quote:
Of course you care. If you didn't care what people thought about your ad opinions, you wouldn't have posted them.
I replied, I don't care if you share my opinion or not.
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