ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags 2020 elections , Democratic primaries , iowa caucus , political predictions , political speculation , presidential candidates

Reply
Old 11th February 2020, 10:29 PM   #361
d4m10n
Illuminator
 
d4m10n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Mounts Farm
Posts: 4,604
Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
He can still claim it as a win.
Hillary Clinton can claim that winning the popular vote was a moral victory, if she likes, but it's not *really* a win, and we all know it.

Sent from my SM-T560NU using Tapatalk
__________________
I'm a happy SINner on the Skeptic Ink Network!
Background Probability: Against Irrationality, Innumeracy, and Ignobility
http://skepticink.com/backgroundprobability/
d4m10n is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th February 2020, 10:30 PM   #362
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 24,631
Ooh, btw, if you just google nh primary results it shows the delegate breakdown as well as the raw vote count.

Currently 9 each for Sanders and Buttigieg, 6 for Klobuchar.
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th February 2020, 10:37 PM   #363
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 24,631
Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Hillary Clinton can claim that winning the popular vote was a moral victory, if she likes, but it's not *really* a win, and we all know it.
Yeah, but in this case, it's perceptions and "momentum" that matter more than the actual number of delegates, because the process has barely begun. There's still a long road ahead and 24 delegates is only a drop in the bucket.
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th February 2020, 10:39 PM   #364
d4m10n
Illuminator
 
d4m10n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Mounts Farm
Posts: 4,604
Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Ooh, btw, if you just google nh primary results it shows the delegate breakdown as well as the raw vote count.



Currently 9 each for Sanders and Buttigieg, 6 for Klobuchar.
That's all 24 of them. Will check again in the a.m.

Sent from my SM-T560NU using Tapatalk
__________________
I'm a happy SINner on the Skeptic Ink Network!
Background Probability: Against Irrationality, Innumeracy, and Ignobility
http://skepticink.com/backgroundprobability/
d4m10n is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th February 2020, 10:52 PM   #365
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 26,426
Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Hillary Clinton can claim that winning the popular vote was a moral victory, if she likes, but it's not *really* a win, and we all know it.

Sent from my SM-T560NU using Tapatalk
From a strategic perspective, it makes no sense to do anything other than claim a victory. The New Hampshire primary is not the end.

Claiming victory and truthfully being able to point to higher numbers of voters mean you set yourself up as the leader for Nevada where Sanders is already the front-runner.

This is different from the Hillary Clinton example where she simply lost, and where her loss was the end of the road. Claiming victory would have been delusional, and nothing more.
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th February 2020, 11:36 PM   #366
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 24,631
There's also this handy little delegate tracker page from NPR:

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/10/79997...andidates-have

Or there's this one:

https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 05:22 AM   #367
Meadmaker
Penultimate Amazing
 
Meadmaker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 20,236
Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
I'm seeing a lot of headlines reporting NH as a win for Sanders, even though he seems unlikely to net more delegates than the next guy.

Seems weird to call that a victory, rather than a tie, given the stated rules of the overall contest.

Sent from my SM-T560NU using Tapatalk
There's reality, and there's headlines.


You don't get eyeballs on your news channel with headlines that say, "It's a Tie in a Small State That Barely Matters"

Media coverage of primaries is more like sports than anything else, and in sports, people want to be able to declare a winner.
Meadmaker is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 05:50 AM   #368
applecorped
Rotten to the Core
 
applecorped's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 19,874
5th for Biden ......(taps)
__________________
All You Need Is Love.
applecorped is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 05:53 AM   #369
SuburbanTurkey
Master Poster
 
SuburbanTurkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Boston, USA
Posts: 2,844
These states matter for defining the later races. Numerically significant or not, they are first and perceptions matter.

Sanders, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar (to a lesser extent) have emerged as front runners, everyone else is looking like a loser. Primary voters may treat voting for Biden, Warren, or the others as throwing their votes away. I expect the vote totals to start coalescing around the 3 viable candidates unless some major turnaround happens.
__________________
Gobble gobble
SuburbanTurkey is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 05:58 AM   #370
Belz...
Fiend God
 
Belz...'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 88,325
Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Sanders campaign adviser: We've 'got some tricks' to win in Nevada

Interpreted by conservative trolls in the comments to mean they're registering illegal aliens to vote.
Gods, that's all they think about, isn't it?
__________________
Master of the Shining Darkness

"My views are nonsense. So what?" - BobTheCoward


Belz... is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 06:03 AM   #371
SuburbanTurkey
Master Poster
 
SuburbanTurkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Boston, USA
Posts: 2,844
Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Gods, that's all they think about, isn't it?
I have no doubt that Trump will challenge the validity of the general election should he lose. The question will be how far will he go?
__________________
Gobble gobble
SuburbanTurkey is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 06:15 AM   #372
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 26,426
Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
These states matter for defining the later races. Numerically significant or not, they are first and perceptions matter.

Sanders, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar (to a lesser extent) have emerged as front runners, everyone else is looking like a loser. Primary voters may treat voting for Biden, Warren, or the others as throwing their votes away. I expect the vote totals to start coalescing around the 3 viable candidates unless some major turnaround happens.
At this rate, it will probably be worse for Sanders if Biden drops out.
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 06:20 AM   #373
SuburbanTurkey
Master Poster
 
SuburbanTurkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Boston, USA
Posts: 2,844
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
At this rate, it will probably be worse for Sanders if Biden drops out.
Have to agree. Sanders has benefited on the inability of the centrist wing to select a candidate and stop splitting their votes. It doesn't help that neither of the viable candidates for this lane seem particularly strong.

As a Bernie supporter, I hope the moderate wing jockeying continues on for some time. Unless Pete or Klobuchar really work some magic, SC will not solidify either of them as the moderate candidate and a strong-ish finish for Biden will just throw their camp back into disarray.
__________________
Gobble gobble
SuburbanTurkey is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 06:25 AM   #374
Belz...
Fiend God
 
Belz...'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 88,325
Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
I have no doubt that Trump will challenge the validity of the general election should he lose. The question will be how far will he go?
Oh, I don't doubt it, either. And the thought is rather scary.
__________________
Master of the Shining Darkness

"My views are nonsense. So what?" - BobTheCoward


Belz... is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 06:42 AM   #375
JoeMorgue
Self Employed
Remittance Man
 
JoeMorgue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 22,855
Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
I have no doubt that Trump will challenge the validity of the general election should he lose. The question will be how far will he go?
As noted he's still challenging the validity of the election he won.

He still pretends he won the popular vote and that his win was actually a lot bigger then it was because of dirty illegal forced busing immigrant voting.
__________________
- "Ernest Hemingway once wrote that the world is a fine place and worth fighting for. I agree with the second part." - Detective Sommerset
- "Stupidity does not cancel out stupidity to yield genius. It breeds like a bucket-full of coked out hamsters." - The Oatmeal
- "To the best of my knowledge the only thing philosophy has ever proven is that Descartes could think." - SMBC
JoeMorgue is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 07:01 AM   #376
ahhell
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 3,064
Dem primaries are turning out much more interesting than I expected.
ahhell is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 07:31 AM   #377
d4m10n
Illuminator
 
d4m10n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Mounts Farm
Posts: 4,604
Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
There's reality, and there's headlines.

You don't get eyeballs on your news channel with headlines that say, "It's a Tie in a Small State That Barely Matters"

Media coverage of primaries is more like sports than anything else, and in sports, people want to be able to declare a winner.
In other words, there are systemic rewards in place which incentivize sensational first-past-the-post style coverage even when those doing the reporting know full well the result is a tie on the points which actually matter, that is, pledged delegates. My point was (and remains) that as skeptics we should be promoting a more factual and grounded approach.

Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
Dem primaries are turning out much more interesting than I expected.
Indeed. Here are my takeaways so far:
  1. Moderate and centrist Dems are around twice as numerous as Democratic Socialists and their fellow travelers, but the latter group have mostly coalesced around a single candidate
  2. The odds of a contested convention have been creeping up steadily, which is horrifying fascinating
  3. With essentially two ties in a row, Nevada has become more important than ever before
__________________
I'm a happy SINner on the Skeptic Ink Network!
Background Probability: Against Irrationality, Innumeracy, and Ignobility
http://skepticink.com/backgroundprobability/

Last edited by d4m10n; 12th February 2020 at 07:43 AM.
d4m10n is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 07:33 AM   #378
SuburbanTurkey
Master Poster
 
SuburbanTurkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Boston, USA
Posts: 2,844
Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
In other words, there are systemic rewards in place which incentivize sensational first-past-the-post style coverage even when those doing the reporting know full well the result is a tie on the points that actually matter, that is, pledged delegates. My point was (and remains) that as skeptics we should be promoting a more factual and grounded approach.
It is factual and grounded to acknowledge that the staggered timetable of the elections means that early victories and losses change perceptions and influence voting decisions.
__________________
Gobble gobble
SuburbanTurkey is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 07:37 AM   #379
JoeMorgue
Self Employed
Remittance Man
 
JoeMorgue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 22,855
As soon as a candidate and/or their supporters who won Iowa/New Hampshire / Super Tuesday goes "Shrug LOL doesn't matter" I'll listen.

It's just a sub-genre of the "Polls don't matter when your guy is losing, they do when he is winning" tactic.
__________________
- "Ernest Hemingway once wrote that the world is a fine place and worth fighting for. I agree with the second part." - Detective Sommerset
- "Stupidity does not cancel out stupidity to yield genius. It breeds like a bucket-full of coked out hamsters." - The Oatmeal
- "To the best of my knowledge the only thing philosophy has ever proven is that Descartes could think." - SMBC
JoeMorgue is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 07:44 AM   #380
d4m10n
Illuminator
 
d4m10n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Mounts Farm
Posts: 4,604
Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
It is factual and grounded to acknowledge that the staggered timetable of the elections means that early victories and losses change perceptions and influence voting decisions.
Because of the breathless horse race coverage (the sort which treats ties as wins) or because of solid and rational reasons?

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
As a Bernie supporter, I hope the moderate wing jockeying continues on for some time. Unless Pete or Klobuchar really work some magic, SC will not solidify either of them as the moderate candidate and a strong-ish finish for Biden will just throw their camp back into disarray.
You'd prefer an anti-majoritarian outcome?
__________________
I'm a happy SINner on the Skeptic Ink Network!
Background Probability: Against Irrationality, Innumeracy, and Ignobility
http://skepticink.com/backgroundprobability/

Last edited by d4m10n; 12th February 2020 at 07:50 AM.
d4m10n is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 08:00 AM   #381
ahhell
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 3,064
Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
In other words, there are systemic rewards in place which incentivize sensational first-past-the-post style coverage even when those doing the reporting know full well the result is a tie on the points which actually matter, that is, pledged delegates. My point was (and remains) that as skeptics we should be promoting a more factual and grounded approach.



Indeed. Here are my takeaways so far:
  1. Moderate and centrist Dems are around twice as numerous as Democratic Socialists and their fellow travelers, but the latter group have mostly coalesced around a single candidate
  2. The odds of a contested convention have been creeping up steadily, which is horrifying fascinating
  3. With essentially two ties in a row, Nevada has become more important than ever before
Had I bet on who would be leading at this point, I would have lost, along with almost everyone else. I'm encouraged mostly because I think either Amy or Pete are better than crazy uncle Joe and Sanders is at least more authentic than Warren. If this trend continues, my choices in the primary will not suck.
ahhell is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 08:04 AM   #382
Belz...
Fiend God
 
Belz...'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details
Posts: 88,325
Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
Sanders is at least more authentic than Warren.
I never had the impression that Warren was anything but authentic. What do you mean?
__________________
Master of the Shining Darkness

"My views are nonsense. So what?" - BobTheCoward


Belz... is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 08:08 AM   #383
SuburbanTurkey
Master Poster
 
SuburbanTurkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Boston, USA
Posts: 2,844
Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Because of the breathless horse race coverage (the sort which treats ties as wins) or because of solid and rational reasons?
For reality based reasons. Voting does not take place in a hyper rational world. It's fine to base your personal opinions on that, but extrapolating that to the larger population is divorced from reality.

The nature of FPTP is that many voters engage let some game theory to inform their votes. Voters may opt to vote for a lower preference candidate if their top tier is not viable. The staggered voting schedule means that voter preference is an iterative process as front-runners emerge and weaker candidates fall off.

People often change their mind about how they will vote if it becomes clear their preferred candidate cannot win. You can categorize this as irrational horse-racing, but this is the context in which the race will be decided.

I also suspect that having more centrist candidates with no clear front-runner hinders the ability of party elites to effectively express their anti-Sanders bias.


Quote:
You'd prefer an anti-majoritarian outcome?
I suspect that prolonging the race between the moderates will improve the chances of Sanders becoming the majoritarian candidate. The jockeying among the centrist wing highlights the differences between them and Sanders.
__________________
Gobble gobble

Last edited by SuburbanTurkey; 12th February 2020 at 08:12 AM.
SuburbanTurkey is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 08:09 AM   #384
JoeMorgue
Self Employed
Remittance Man
 
JoeMorgue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 22,855
It's "The Spoiler Effect" and it's what turns two party first past the post systems into.... *gestures at everything* this.
__________________
- "Ernest Hemingway once wrote that the world is a fine place and worth fighting for. I agree with the second part." - Detective Sommerset
- "Stupidity does not cancel out stupidity to yield genius. It breeds like a bucket-full of coked out hamsters." - The Oatmeal
- "To the best of my knowledge the only thing philosophy has ever proven is that Descartes could think." - SMBC
JoeMorgue is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 09:03 AM   #385
d4m10n
Illuminator
 
d4m10n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Mounts Farm
Posts: 4,604
Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
The nature of FPTP is that many voters engage let some game theory to inform their votes.
Democratic nominating contest is not FPTP, and therefore the press should stop covering it as such.

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Voters may opt to vote for a lower preference candidate if their top tier is not viable.
With a rather small fraction of the primary votes in so far, can we make a rational assessment of general election viability?

Seems to me that would be "extrapolating...to the larger population" in a "divorced from reality" way, unless the first two states happen to be representative of the general voting population.

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
People often change their mind about how they will vote if it becomes clear their preferred candidate cannot win.
People often engage in the fallacy of hasty inductionWP as well.

As of now, we've seen 64 delegates pledged in a race to 1,991.
__________________
I'm a happy SINner on the Skeptic Ink Network!
Background Probability: Against Irrationality, Innumeracy, and Ignobility
http://skepticink.com/backgroundprobability/

Last edited by d4m10n; 12th February 2020 at 09:05 AM.
d4m10n is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 11:22 AM   #386
Trebuchet
Penultimate Amazing
 
Trebuchet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: The Great Northwet
Posts: 25,018
Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
I have no doubt that Trump will challenge the validity of the general election should he lose. The question will be how far will he go?
He'll challenge the validity of it well before that. Just as he did in 2016. If he loses, he'll take it to the Supreme Court, 4/9 of which would happily declare him President for Life.
__________________
Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.
Trebuchet is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 01:30 PM   #387
d4m10n
Illuminator
 
d4m10n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Mounts Farm
Posts: 4,604
Post-NH the 538 primary model has Bernie tied with a contested convention.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/
__________________
I'm a happy SINner on the Skeptic Ink Network!
Background Probability: Against Irrationality, Innumeracy, and Ignobility
http://skepticink.com/backgroundprobability/
d4m10n is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 03:36 PM   #388
Tsukasa Buddha
Other (please write in)
 
Tsukasa Buddha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 15,223
Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Post-NH the 538 primary model has Bernie tied with a contested convention.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/
Quote:
First, consider the rather precise phrasing that our model uses. It forecasts the chance that a candidate wins “more than half of pledged delegates.” To be more exact, it forecasts the chance a candidate wins a majority of pledged delegates as of the end of the day on June 6, when the last state or territory (the Virgin Islands) votes.

Winning a majority of pledged delegates is not quite the same thing as winning the nomination. Nor does the failure of any candidate to win the majority of delegates by June 6 necessarily imply a contested or brokered convention.
Linky.
__________________
As cultural anthropologists have always said "human culture" = "human nature". You might as well put a fish on the moon to test how it "swims naturally" without the "influence of water". -Earthborn
Tsukasa Buddha is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 05:02 PM   #389
d4m10n
Illuminator
 
d4m10n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Mounts Farm
Posts: 4,604
This is a fair correction, Tsukasa, and I appreciate the linky.

That said, I don't have a adjective for "the sort of convention that requires pledged delegates to break their (surprisingly non-binding) pledges in order to make things work," which may or may not be technically brokered or contested.
__________________
I'm a happy SINner on the Skeptic Ink Network!
Background Probability: Against Irrationality, Innumeracy, and Ignobility
http://skepticink.com/backgroundprobability/
d4m10n is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 05:59 PM   #390
Brainster
Penultimate Amazing
 
Brainster's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 17,439
Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Post-NH the 538 primary model has Bernie tied with a contested convention.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/
I have tons of respect for Silver and his stats, but I do wonder if we aren't quite a bit off the beaten path in this primary, with Steyer and Bloomberg looming ahead. If you look at his projections for the upcoming primaries and caucuses, he has Bernie winning every state (scroll down).

Well, of course if that happens it's Sanders easily, even if he doesn't end up with a majority of delegates. But Steyer has been registering significant support in South Carolina, and Bloomberg has the money to face Sanders, who seems to be the exact candidate he entered the race to beat.
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads.
1960s Comic Book Nostalgia
Visit the Screw Loose Change blog.

Last edited by Brainster; 12th February 2020 at 06:09 PM.
Brainster is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 06:13 PM   #391
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 26,426
Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
I have tons of respect for Silver and his stats, but I do wonder if we aren't quite a bit off the beaten path in this primary, with Steyer and Bloomberg looming ahead. If you look at his projections for the upcoming primaries and caucuses, he has Bernie winning every state (scroll down).

Well, of course if that happens it's Sanders easily, even if he doesn't end up with a majority of delegates. But Steyer has been registering significant support in South Carolina, and Bloomberg has the money to face Sanders, who seems to be the exact candidate he entered the race to beat.
It's pretty amazing that Sanders has pulled ahead in Nevada and South Carolina especially given that the latter was seen as a Biden stronghold.

If Sanders wins, Biden might limp on to Super Tuesday, but he will be finished.

As for the billionaires and their big spending ways, isn't it the case that after a certain level of money, you get massively diminishing returns?

For example, if you have seen Bloomberg's ads 500 times, how much more likely are you to vote for him if you see his adverts another 100 or 200 times?
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 07:07 PM   #392
Delphic Oracle
Illuminator
 
Delphic Oracle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 4,105
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
It's pretty amazing that Sanders has pulled ahead in Nevada and South Carolina especially given that the latter was seen as a Biden stronghold.

If Sanders wins, Biden might limp on to Super Tuesday, but he will be finished.

As for the billionaires and their big spending ways, isn't it the case that after a certain level of money, you get massively diminishing returns?

For example, if you have seen Bloomberg's ads 500 times, how much more likely are you to vote for him if you see his adverts another 100 or 200 times?
Also worth digging deeper into the high pay rates Bloomberg is often cited as having. Yes, he's hiring lots of people connected to state-level parties and giving them generous sums for consulting/strategic work. This is wonk-speak for "opening doors and doing certain favors for me."

I will admit this is not a new or particularly insidious thing, but neither is it an admirable or respectable thing.

Last edited by Delphic Oracle; 12th February 2020 at 07:09 PM.
Delphic Oracle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 07:16 PM   #393
Tsukasa Buddha
Other (please write in)
 
Tsukasa Buddha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 15,223
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
It's pretty amazing that Sanders has pulled ahead in Nevada and South Carolina especially given that the latter was seen as a Biden stronghold.
He hasn't, maybe. If you are looking at the 538 projections, they are based on a lot of other things like national polls. NV hasn't had a poll since January, and SC polls were before IA, and Biden was still leading. NV is particularly hard to poll, as well. We don't have any actual updates based on recent events.
__________________
As cultural anthropologists have always said "human culture" = "human nature". You might as well put a fish on the moon to test how it "swims naturally" without the "influence of water". -Earthborn
Tsukasa Buddha is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 08:05 PM   #394
d4m10n
Illuminator
 
d4m10n's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Mounts Farm
Posts: 4,604
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
If Sanders wins, Biden might limp on to Super Tuesday, but he will be finished.
It's too early for Super Tuesday predictions, but I'm predicting a 3 or 4-way split between the non-DSA candidates on that day.
__________________
I'm a happy SINner on the Skeptic Ink Network!
Background Probability: Against Irrationality, Innumeracy, and Ignobility
http://skepticink.com/backgroundprobability/

Last edited by d4m10n; 12th February 2020 at 08:07 PM.
d4m10n is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 08:22 PM   #395
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 26,426
Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
It's too early for Super Tuesday predictions, but I'm predicting a 3 or 4-way split between the non-DSA candidates on that day.
There’s bound to be pressure on them to choose a single candidate. Splitting the vote is how Sanders will win the nomination. If they leave it to late, the mass of voters might just get behind the leader.
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 11:22 PM   #396
Brainster
Penultimate Amazing
 
Brainster's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 17,439
Originally Posted by Tsukasa Buddha View Post
He hasn't, maybe. If you are looking at the 538 projections, they are based on a lot of other things like national polls. NV hasn't had a poll since January, and SC polls were before IA, and Biden was still leading. NV is particularly hard to poll, as well. We don't have any actual updates based on recent events.
This. Part of the problem (or maybe not) is that it assumes a bounce (slight or big, depending on certain factors) for the winner of each primary or caucus, but it does not make some rather obvious assumptions about who will drop out (or more complicated ones about who will pick up votes from the drop-outs' supporters).

I think he's way underestimating both Steyer and Bloomberg. He doesn't even have Klobuchar broken out separately (she's still in the 100-1 field) although it seems obvious that she will outlast Warren.
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads.
1960s Comic Book Nostalgia
Visit the Screw Loose Change blog.

Last edited by Brainster; 12th February 2020 at 11:49 PM.
Brainster is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th February 2020, 11:47 PM   #397
Brainster
Penultimate Amazing
 
Brainster's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 17,439
BTW, the turnout in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire broke the 2008 record by about 3% (296,222-287,527). Not sure how to interpret that especially since 2008 had very competitive races on both sides unlike Tuesday.

One thing I am hearing from pundits but have not seen polling on is that Buttigieg is doing well among younger voters that he is blunting some of Bernie's advantage in that demo. And that younger voters did not come out en masse in New Hampshire. Again a big part of Bernie's message is that he can get the youth vote out.
__________________
My new blog: Recent Reads.
1960s Comic Book Nostalgia
Visit the Screw Loose Change blog.
Brainster is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th February 2020, 08:33 AM   #398
JoeMorgue
Self Employed
Remittance Man
 
JoeMorgue's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Florida
Posts: 22,855
The fact that 5 territories have primaries when they can't vote for the President is weird to me.

71 delegates out of 3,979 isn't like enough to skew any numbers or anything so it doesn't matter, it's just weird.
__________________
- "Ernest Hemingway once wrote that the world is a fine place and worth fighting for. I agree with the second part." - Detective Sommerset
- "Stupidity does not cancel out stupidity to yield genius. It breeds like a bucket-full of coked out hamsters." - The Oatmeal
- "To the best of my knowledge the only thing philosophy has ever proven is that Descartes could think." - SMBC
JoeMorgue is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th February 2020, 08:58 AM   #399
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 14,807
Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
The fact that 5 territories have primaries when they can't vote for the President is weird to me.

71 delegates out of 3,979 isn't like enough to skew any numbers or anything so it doesn't matter, it's just weird.
Its also weird that territories can elect people to congress, but those people are unable to vote, only engage in 'debate'.
__________________
Trust me, I know what I'm doing. - Sledgehammer

I'm Mary Poppin's Y'all! - Yondu

We are Groot - Groot
Segnosaur is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th February 2020, 09:13 AM   #400
Ziggurat
Penultimate Amazing
 
Ziggurat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 45,662
Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
BTW, the turnout in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire broke the 2008 record by about 3% (296,222-287,527). Not sure how to interpret that especially since 2008 had very competitive races on both sides unlike Tuesday.
The population grew around 3% in those intervening years, so per capita turnout is pretty close to the same.
__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law
Ziggurat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 05:15 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.