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Tags 2020 elections , Democratic primaries , iowa caucus , political predictions , political speculation , presidential candidates

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Old 4th February 2020, 09:51 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Yes? The coin flips only affect delegates to the State convention, though.


Percentile dice would be so much cooler.
- "In the event of a tie, roll 4D6+5" ... wait, what?
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Old 4th February 2020, 09:56 AM   #82
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This is probably going to blow back on the impeachment trial, as well. In a vacuum, the trial and tomorrow's expected acquittal could be presented as a moral victory that highlights the perfidy of the GOP.

In the context of the Iowa caucus, it's probably going to end up feeling more like yet another Dem clown show. Most of the people who would be celebrating the moral win in the Senate are going to be at each other's throats over the perceived backstabbing in Iowa.

Vladimir Putin couldn't have engineered a better news cycle for Donald "Will Always Be Impeached" Trump if he'd tried (and some Democrats are already suggesting he did exactly that).
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Old 4th February 2020, 10:02 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Electronic Voting

The worst option possible.
Gods, I'm so glad Canada still uses paper ballots.
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Old 4th February 2020, 10:08 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Even assuming the caucus app has catastrophically failed, enough time has passed to have done this the old fashioned way, either by hand delivering the completed forms or by calling them in.
The old-fashioned methods never reported anything other than a final tally of State Delegate Equivalents (SDEs). This year Iowa Dems have promised to report three sets of totals, without any noticeable ****-ups.



Nate Silver writes:

Quote:
Maybe there will eventually be a decent-sized Iowa bounce despite all of this. But there’s a good chance that the candidates who did well in Iowa get screwed, and the candidates who did poorly there get a mulligan. To repeat: There’s very little importance in a mathematical sense to who wins 41 delegates. Iowa is all about the media narrative it produces and all about momentum, and that momentum, whoever wins, is likely to have been blunted.
The big winner here is Biden (who gets the mulligan) and the Bernie Bro conspiracy theorists, who get to freak out about Biden being handed a mulligan at the hands of establishment Dems. Also, NH.
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Old 4th February 2020, 11:23 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
From Jared Holt, journalist at Right Wing Watch



https://twitter.com/jaredlholt/statu...71006591193088
I think that is one thing we can all agree on:Some Iown Democratic Party officials need to be fired
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Old 4th February 2020, 11:26 AM   #86
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This says it all:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...to-use-an-app/
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Old 4th February 2020, 11:29 AM   #87
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'Oh, there's nothing halfway about the Iowa way to treat you,
if they treat you, which they may not do at all"
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Old 4th February 2020, 11:36 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Gods, I'm so glad Canada still uses paper ballots.
Maryland used touch screens years ago, but went back to paper, machine-read on site and collected for backup purposes. This sort of thing is *way* too important to rely completely on tech - screen calibration issues and the like present a real problem, never mind possible hacking.

Fun fact - a company I used to work for was contracted to replace various Air Traffic Control systems. Pulled out all the bells and whistles - touch screens for everything, total redesign.

The air traffic controllers *hated* it. It was way too much retraining, and mistakes could prove disastrous. They ended up more or less scrapping the design, and going back to the older control setups. This is what happens when you don't check the UI with actual end users, and it sounds like the Iowa caucus ran into the same damn problem.

Not hard, folks, it's one of the most basic rules of HW/SW design. And for pity's sake, not everything needs to connect to the damn internet.
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Old 4th February 2020, 11:42 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
Maryland used touch screens years ago, but went back to paper, machine-read on site and collected for backup purposes. This sort of thing is *way* too important to rely completely on tech - screen calibration issues and the like present a real problem, never mind possible hacking.

Fun fact - a company I used to work for was contracted to replace various Air Traffic Control systems. Pulled out all the bells and whistles - touch screens for everything, total redesign.

The air traffic controllers *hated* it. It was way too much retraining, and mistakes could prove disastrous. They ended up more or less scrapping the design, and going back to the older control setups. This is what happens when you don't check the UI with actual end users, and it sounds like the Iowa caucus ran into the same damn problem.

Not hard, folks, it's one of the most basic rules of HW/SW design. And for pity's sake, not everything needs to connect to the damn internet.
Don't know why it's so hard for people to accept that fairly old technology is probably the best.

Massachussetts uses a paper ballot that requires fill in the bubble. Someone very careless or not too bright could spoil their ballot by filling in too many bubbles, but the process is quite simple and low risk. The ballots can be scanned and tallied rapidly, or counted by hand if needed. It doesn't require the voter to use any complicated machines. It doesn't require the volunteers running the poll site to do much besides hand out and collect the ballots.

There's no reason to use a complicated voter machine that outweighs the various drawbacks of using such a system.

Caucuses is like the exact opposite of what you want in an election process. It requires tremendous effort from the voter. It requires lots of volunteers that understand the silly rules and how to properly "score" the precinct worksheets. Then it requires these many volunteers to transmit the data back to headquarters to be compiled. So many points for failure.
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Old 4th February 2020, 11:45 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
Fun fact - a company I used to work for was contracted to replace various Air Traffic Control systems. Pulled out all the bells and whistles - touch screens for everything, total redesign.

The air traffic controllers *hated* it. It was way too much retraining, and mistakes could prove disastrous. They ended up more or less scrapping the design, and going back to the older control setups. This is what happens when you don't check the UI with actual end users, and it sounds like the Iowa caucus ran into the same damn problem.
I can believe it. My car's a brand new Civic, and instead of the buttons I had on my previous vehicle for climate control, I have to operate the touchscreen, which as you may suspect is quite a bit more dangerous when you're on the road, as with the buttons I didn't even have to look.
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Old 4th February 2020, 11:53 AM   #91
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If you're a political party that would steamroll every election without trying if you could get the below 30 crowd to consistently vote in meaningful numbers technology is your friend not your enemy.

Yes all the complaints, concerns, downsides are still valid but the Republicans have the "Oh I'm scared of my cell phone and don't own a computer" demographic already locked down.

There's no hipster "I'm only going to vote on vinyl" counter demographic on the Left to court here.

At the end of the day you're (metaphorically) making it easier to vote via an 1995 Lincoln Continental with Curb Feelers and a radio tuned to Paul Harvey being driven 35 miles an hour in the fast lane on I-95 then you are via an Uber. And the voting demographic you need the most is a lot more comfortable with the Uber.
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:00 PM   #92
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Just for laughs. Job listing posted Feb 4th.

Quote:
Job Opportunity!

Shadow, a Democratic Digital Firm seeks a Client Success Representative to respond to incoming requests for help, manage the client-facing help center, and any client training.
https://www.daybook.com/jobs/zJLyBGKbGb2WFvZvF
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:01 PM   #93
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What in the blue hell is a "client success representative"?
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:03 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Gods, I'm so glad Canada still uses paper ballots.
Its easy for us Canadians to use paper ballots because our choices are so simple: One question: who do you want as an MP. (We don't even technically vote for our prime minister... he just happens to be the one who's party gets the most MPs.)

In the U.S. they have multiple questions: Who to be president? Who to be congress critter(s)? Plus, any referendums? Other offices (like judges)?

All that can in theory give the voter more control, but it also makes the ballot a bit more complex. Having electronic ballots, etc. might streamline the process (assuming it can be done in a secure manor, which is questionable).
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:04 PM   #95
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:09 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
What in the blue hell is a "client success representative"?
In this case? A customer support manager.
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:12 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
What in the blue hell is a "client success representative"?
Someone who utilizes synergy in order to realign the paradigm to best refocus our core mission values.
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:16 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
- "In the event of a tie, roll 4D6+5" ... wait, what?
So,here's what I read on the internet, and if you can't trust the internet, who can you trust?

They count the votes, come up with a fraction of total votes for each candidate, multiply by number of delegates, and that's how many each candidate gets. Except, what about fractions? If Joe gets 4.6 delegates and Amy gets 3.4 delegates, what then? Some of you might see an obvious answer, but that's not how they do things in Iowa. Instead, all fractional delegates are settled by coin flip, regardless of the size of the fractions.

Percentile dice would be cooler.


And if you roll 00, you get +5 debating skill.

Or, these are delegates to a state convention, not actual candidates. Maybe they should get +5 alcohol resistance.
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:18 PM   #99
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Someone in media finally made the joke I had been waiting for;That so far the Iowa caucauses are like the Caucus race in "Alice In Wonderland":They are all running to stay in the same place, and they all will want a prize.
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:19 PM   #100
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Someone in media finally made the joke I had been waiting for;That so far the Iowa caucauses are like the Caucus race in "Alice In Wonderland":They are all running to stay in the same place, and they all will want a prize.
I need a gif of that scene from the Simpsons where the teachers are all just dancing in a line singing "Caucus Caucus Caucus" over and over.
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:22 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I need a gif of that scene from the Simpsons where the teachers are all just dancing in a line singing "Caucus Caucus Caucus" over and over.
BTW, the Caucus race in "Alice In Wonderland" was intended as a satire on the cuscusus in British Politics when Lewis Caroll wrote the book.
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Old 4th February 2020, 01:04 PM   #102
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Another fun moment from the caucus.

Pete supporter wants to retract their support after they learn Pete is gay. Totally unaware that Pete is gay and is married to another man. Have to respect the Buttigieg volunteer that was very gracefully putting up with this high IQ individual of good moral character.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTQl...5nMHIWHpbXVWbM
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Old 4th February 2020, 01:07 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Another fun moment from the caucus.

Pete supporter wants to retract their support after they learn Pete is gay. Totally unaware that Pete is gay and is married to another man.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTQl...5nMHIWHpbXVWbM
Because Pete has kept it such a carefully guarded secret?

*Picks up a magazine, flipping through it while taking a sip of my drink. Suddenly spits my drink out* Holy crap Obama is black?
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Old 4th February 2020, 01:16 PM   #104
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"The Gang Runs an Election"

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Old 4th February 2020, 01:17 PM   #105
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It's always sunny in Iowa.
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Old 4th February 2020, 01:26 PM   #106
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One volunteer's account of unsuccessfully trying to use the election app:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...n-iowa-caucus/

Quote:
After 9 p.m., disorder really descended. The app for reporting results wasn’t working. When I’d downloaded it on Jan. 31, the installation instructions had been convoluted: You had to fill out a survey, which then got you a link, and then you had to download a different app, and enter in a code from your email, and then you would get the real app. This was meant to keep everything secure. But we have caucus chairs who need their grandkids to program their DVRs, and the training for the caucus chairs hadn’t included any guidance. The party didn’t really roll out the app so much as drop it on the doorstep. On Monday, I fielded calls all day from chairs trying to download the app and getting blocked. When I tried to sign in myself, I was told that my PIN wasn’t valid. In our county, only two of the 22 caucus leaders were able to use the app successfully.
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Old 4th February 2020, 01:31 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
What in the blue hell is a "client success representative"?
I don't know by but my wife is currently applying for a job as a one. Seems to be what software companies call client managers.

Last edited by ahhell; 4th February 2020 at 02:34 PM.
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Old 4th February 2020, 01:35 PM   #108
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There seems to be a bit of confusion over the App. The voters weren't voting with an app, they were doing the whole usual go stand in the right corner thing. The Reporting of the vote was done by the App. It was the communications between the officials on the ground and the Party Officials who were totaling the incoming votes what fell over due to a poorly tested app that a lot of the Caucus Chair s had no idea how to use, a phone system that overloaded, and for some reason, they turned away those that took over the results physically.

As much as I think that Caucuses are silly for a number of reasons, what happened here is not something that is the result of the Caucus itself.
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Old 4th February 2020, 01:52 PM   #109
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While I have no CT to advance on this, a major loss for everyone is this bodes ill for general attitudes about integrity of electorsl process.

That's a worry people have lately, they will express it through weaving every story imaginable. That will really get the intra-party boiling.
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Old 4th February 2020, 02:13 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
While I have no CT to advance on this, a major loss for everyone is this bodes ill for general attitudes about integrity of [electoral] process.
2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucusesWP were always going to be a clusterfuffle.

tl;dr - The process is as follows...

3 Feb: "11,402 county convention delegates are awarded proportionally on the basis of the results of the 1678 precinct caucuses and 99 satellite caucuses."

21 Mar: County convention delegates select 2,107 District and State Delegates (SDE) for district conventions

25 Apr: District conventions select the 27 pledged congressional district delegates

13 Jun: State Democratic convention selects the remaining 9 pledged at-large delegates and 5 pledged PLEO delegates

When it's all said and done more than 152k Iowans have been gradually compressed down to 41 pledged delegates to the DNC through an iterative process with multiple stages, at each of which various candidates' shares have been rounded up, down, or zeroed out.

tl;tl;dr - If you were confident in this process, you didn't understand it.

ETA: It looks like Pete might have a decent shot of getting the most SDEs, but he's in a virtual tie with Bernie.
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Old 4th February 2020, 02:28 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
While I have no CT to advance on this, a major loss for everyone is this bodes ill for general attitudes about integrity of electorsl process.

That's a worry people have lately, they will express it through weaving every story imaginable. That will really get the intra-party boiling.
And it's giving the comedians a field day.
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Old 4th February 2020, 02:29 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
I don't know by my wife is currently applying for a job as a one. Seems to be what software companies call client managers.
What in tarnation is a client manager?
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"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

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Old 4th February 2020, 02:36 PM   #113
Childlike Empress
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
While I have no CT to advance on this [...]

I can help you with some dot-connecting:

Originally Posted by Max Blumenthal
At the time of publication, twelve hours after voting in the Democratic Party’s Iowa caucuses ended, the results have not been announced. The delay in reporting is the result of a failed app developed by a company appropriately named Shadow Inc.

This firm was staffed by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama campaign veterans and created by a Democratic dark money nonprofit backed by hedge fund billionaires including Seth Klarman. A prolific funder of pro-settler Israel lobby organizations, Klarman has also contributed directly to Pete Buttigieg’s campaign.

The delay in the vote reporting denied a victory speech to Sen. Bernie Sanders, the presumptive winner of the opening contest in the Democratic presidential primary. Though not one exit poll indicated that Buttigieg would have won, the South Bend, Indiana mayor took to Twitter to confidently proclaim himself the victor. [...]

Hours later, journalist Lee Fang reported that a previously unknown tech outfit called Shadow Inc. had contracted with the Iowa Democratic Party to create the failed technology. The firm was comprised of former staffers for Obama, Clinton and the tech industry, and had been paid for services by the Buttigieg campaign. [...]

As Democratic elites like the Sussmans braced for a Bernie Sanders triumph in Iowa, a mysterious piece of technology spun out by a group they supported delayed the vote results, preventing Sanders from delivering a victory speech. And the politician many of them supported, Pete Buttigieg, exploited the moment to declare himself the winner. In such a strange scenario, the conspiracy theories write themselves.

#MayorCheat is trending, and while I can't see a practical scheme behind this with any ... next step ... profit! intention, the facts are bizarre enough. Shadow, Inc, really?
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Old 4th February 2020, 02:38 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
What in tarnation is a client manager?
Its what we call a client success representative in the civil infrastructure business.
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Old 4th February 2020, 02:41 PM   #115
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I don't see anything unusual about Democratic insiders using their money to develop technology for their primary election.

But that fact it was a caucus and having to operate an untested app at a particular time at a particular place probably wasn't a good idea.
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Old 4th February 2020, 02:46 PM   #116
Trebuchet
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucusesWP were always going to be a clusterfuffle.

tl;dr - The process is as follows...

3 Feb: "11,402 county convention delegates are awarded proportionally on the basis of the results of the 1678 precinct caucuses and 99 satellite caucuses."

21 Mar: County convention delegates select 2,107 District and State Delegates (SDE) for district conventions

25 Apr: District conventions select the 27 pledged congressional district delegates

13 Jun: State Democratic convention selects the remaining 9 pledged at-large delegates and 5 pledged PLEO delegates

When it's all said and done more than 152k Iowans have been gradually compressed down to 41 pledged delegates to the DNC through an iterative process with multiple stages, at each of which various candidates' shares have been rounded up, down, or zeroed out.

tl;tl;dr - If you were confident in this process, you didn't understand it.

ETA: It looks like Pete might have a decent shot of getting the most SDEs, but he's in a virtual tie with Bernie.
That process, of course, is pretty much how delegates were chosen by both parties all over the country until the past 30 or 40 years.
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Old 4th February 2020, 03:08 PM   #117
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The CTs won't be about how quirky a caucus is. There will be low-hanging fruit like the coin toss (which I'm almost certain has happened before).

The ones that worry me grow from whatever moron made a statement about "quality control" of the numbers they were getting and then most of a day delay. Get ready for 500 different theories about "massaging the numbers."
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Old 4th February 2020, 03:11 PM   #118
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The company that wrote the software says it "regrets the glitches".
No S*** Sherlock.
You might as well start filling out the bankruptcy forms now....
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Old 4th February 2020, 03:16 PM   #119
BrooklynBaby
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Democrats face-plant on impeachment, then immediately pivot to a face-plant on counting their own caucus votes due to "coding problems". LOL. I would say when Biden told the coal miners to "learn to code" he was addressing the wrong audience...
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Old 4th February 2020, 03:21 PM   #120
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Originally Posted by BrooklynBaby View Post
Democrats face-plant on impeachment,
I wouldn't say they face-planted on impeachment. Putting a positive spin on their doomed effort to remove the president requires some nuance and finesse, though. They were doing alright, but this caucus business kind of blows all that nuance and finesse out of the water.

Quote:
then immediately pivot to a face-plant on counting their own caucus votes due to "coding problems". LOL. I would say when Biden told the coal miners to "learn to code" he was addressing the wrong audience...
This, on the other hand, is great. I can't get enough of "learn to code" jokes at the expense of progressives.
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