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Tags 2020 elections , Democratic primaries , iowa caucus , political predictions , political speculation , presidential candidates

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Old 10th February 2020, 08:59 PM   #321
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
Not really, because in order to do so, you have to come up with a clear definition of "democratic," and that just isn't possible.

Martin Gardner used to write a lot about this. In a multi-person run off, there is no inherently "correct" way to select the winner
Once I read about "the election theorem", I spent a lot less time thinking about how to run the perfect election.

I still think there are better ways, but I know there's no perfect way.

I think in modern America, though, our primary system is particularly bad because of the tendency to push people toward the extremes.
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Old 10th February 2020, 10:45 PM   #322
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I think Sanders is likely to keep chugging along picking up delegates fairly consistently while three moderates - Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar split the moderate vote. Of course, if the moderates and progressives pick a winner now and the others in their camp drop out then they should clean up, right?
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Old 11th February 2020, 01:07 AM   #323
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the number of people who turned out for the Sanders and Trump rallies is amazing.
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Old 11th February 2020, 05:14 AM   #324
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I think Sanders is likely to keep chugging along picking up delegates fairly consistently while three moderates - Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar split the moderate vote. Of course, if the moderates and progressives pick a winner now and the others in their camp drop out then they should clean up, right?
It's unclear if any other moderate would have the same level of support with Southern black voters that Biden enjoys.

It's also unclear if all these moderate supporters are actually driven primarily by ideological moderation. I'm sure a lot, if not a majority, are, but many may vote for other reasons. I'd be interested to see some polling among the candidates on who they say as their #2 preferred candidate.
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Old 11th February 2020, 07:07 AM   #325
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
I think Sanders is likely to keep chugging along picking up delegates fairly consistently while three moderates - Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar split the moderate vote. Of course, if the moderates and progressives pick a winner now and the others in their camp drop out then they should clean up, right?
Sanders might wind up convincing the moderates that a candidate more to the left can win in the General.
Then the moderates will switch their votes to Warren
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Old 11th February 2020, 07:48 AM   #326
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Sanders might wind up convincing the moderates that a candidate more to the left can win in the General.
Then the moderates will switch their votes to Warren
Yeah, that wouldn't be such a bad outcome.
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:06 AM   #327
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I wish it was more likely then not that we would have a feel for likely VP candidates before we basically had to choose who the candidate was going to be.

I think most people on the Left would be at least fairly okay with ticket split between a moderate/centrist and an idealist/progressive and would even out and sand down some of the internal squabbling.

Sanders and Warren ran on a ticket before.
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:09 AM   #328
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I wish it was more likely then not that we would have a feel for likely VP candidates before we basically had to choose who the candidate was going to be.

I think most people on the Left would be at least fairly okay with ticket split between a moderate/centrist and an idealist/progressive and would even out and sand down some of the internal squabbling.

Sanders and Warren ran on a ticket before.
VP isn't really a meaningful role unless the President dies or something like that. I get that selecting a VP can have a strategic value, like trying to drum up support from a certain state or certain segment of the electorate, but the VP doesn't meaningfully shape the agenda of the white house unless the President allows it.
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:21 AM   #329
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
VP isn't really a meaningful role unless the President dies or something like that. I get that selecting a VP can have a strategic value, like trying to drum up support from a certain state or certain segment of the electorate, but the VP doesn't meaningfully shape the agenda of the white house unless the President allows it.
Oh I agree it's purely symbolic, but sometimes symbolism is useful.

But, to be fair, I've been wrong on this in the past. I would have put good money on us having a black VP to... ease people into it before having a black president, and before Obama would have said the same thing about a female or gay President but now I'm far less sure.

Again we're like at 99.99% for Presidents/VPs all being old white dudes and it's really hard to get any kind of data from a random sampling of "One exception that we've only had one data point after so we have zero way of knowing if it was an anomoly, a trend, a red herring, or a sign of things to come" so... *shrugs* who knows?

So I could be talking out of my ass. I still lean toward thinking that the VP candidates would be a nice piece of information for people to have before the decision is firmly made though.

The one thing we generally don't talk about when picking candidates and is, in my opinion, one of the biggest factors in how well they are going to pick people for key positions, because it's just one of those things that is very hard to judge from this point of view and point in time.

Who's gonna be Candidate X's VP? Their Secretary of State? Who would be their hypothetical SCOTUS pick? Their thises and thats? Can you see this person being approved by the Senate? These are questions I think there is valid, useful information in that don't get asked of them a lot.

A Candidate who (all other base factors being met obviously) who went "Even though I am in competition with these people for the nomination, I recognize that they offer a lot as evidence by their strong support from other people, so even nominate I will discuss potential roles in my future administration with them if they are open to the possibility" would impress me a great deal.

Sanders, Biden, Warren, etc... they don't necessarily have to be President to do good and be useful.
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:44 AM   #330
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Oh I agree it's purely symbolic, but sometimes symbolism is useful.

But, to be fair, I've been wrong on this in the past. I would have put good money on us having a black VP to... ease people into it before having a black president, and before Obama would have said the same thing about a female or gay President but now I'm far less sure.

Again we're like at 99.99% for Presidents/VPs all being old white dudes and it's really hard to get any kind of data from a random sampling of "One exception that we've only had one data point after so we have zero way of knowing if it was an anomoly, a trend, a red herring, or a sign of things to come" so... *shrugs* who knows?

So I could be talking out of my ass. I still lean toward thinking that the VP candidates would be a nice piece of information for people to have before the decision is firmly made though.

The one thing we generally don't talk about when picking candidates and is, in my opinion, one of the biggest factors in how well they are going to pick people for key positions, because it's just one of those things that is very hard to judge from this point of view and point in time.

Who's gonna be Candidate X's VP? Their Secretary of State? Who would be their hypothetical SCOTUS pick? Their thises and thats? Can you see this person being approved by the Senate? These are questions I think there is valid, useful information in that don't get asked of them a lot.

A Candidate who (all other base factors being met obviously) who went "Even though I am in competition with these people for the nomination, I recognize that they offer a lot as evidence by their strong support from other people, so even nominate I will discuss potential roles in my future administration with them if they are open to the possibility" would impress me a great deal.

Sanders, Biden, Warren, etc... they don't necessarily have to be President to do good and be useful.
Biden is only useful inasmuch as he might be the most likely to defeat Trump.(although that might be changing)
Even if he were elected, I suspect his VP would be doing most of the heavy lifting in his administration.

Outside that limited role, he should definitely be in his rocking chair boring his grandchildren with tales of the old days.
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Old 11th February 2020, 09:16 AM   #331
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
VP isn't really a meaningful role unless the President dies or something like that. I get that selecting a VP can have a strategic value, like trying to drum up support from a certain state or certain segment of the electorate, but the VP doesn't meaningfully shape the agenda of the white house unless the President allows it.
Two Words: Dick Cheney. It took GWB about seven years to get out from under his thumb.
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Old 11th February 2020, 09:40 AM   #332
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Two Words: Dick Cheney. It took GWB about seven years to get out from under his thumb.
I mean, GWB had the power. He enabled Dick Cheney to run things from the VP desk, but that was W's choice.
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Old 11th February 2020, 09:57 AM   #333
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We're in the middle of a massive KlobuCHARGE in NH



https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1227103902241296384

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...e-primary.html
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Old 11th February 2020, 11:06 AM   #334
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Oh I agree it's purely symbolic, but sometimes symbolism is useful.

But, to be fair, I've been wrong on this in the past. I would have put good money on us having a black VP to... ease people into it before having a black president, and before Obama would have said the same thing about a female or gay President but now I'm far less sure.

Again we're like at 99.99% for Presidents/VPs all being old white dudes
I no longer think of all former presidents as old.
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Old 11th February 2020, 11:23 AM   #335
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Bernie Sanders has this one, finished.

There are two local candidates, Bernie, and Elizabeth Warren. And if you know anything about New Hampshire, you know this:

They
Hate
Us
Massholes!
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Old 11th February 2020, 11:33 AM   #336
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
VP isn't really a meaningful role unless the President dies or something like that. I get that selecting a VP can have a strategic value, like trying to drum up support from a certain state or certain segment of the electorate, but the VP doesn't meaningfully shape the agenda of the white house unless the President allows it.

In 2008, my parents commented that their votes were largely based on the Vice Presidents. They assumed that Obama would be assassinated if he won and McCain was too old and sickly to survive the stress of the job.
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Old 11th February 2020, 01:36 PM   #337
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Biden is skipping New Hampshire, heading to South Carolina to get a headstart there.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-ne...tes/index.html
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Old 11th February 2020, 01:39 PM   #338
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Biden is skipping New Hampshire, heading to South Carolina to get a headstart there.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-ne...tes/index.html
If polling is to believed, he may not even hit the 15% minimum for delegates in NH. He very well may entering SC with his campaign on life support. He's going to need a spectacular turnaround or I suspect he's done.
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Old 11th February 2020, 01:53 PM   #339
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It occurs to me that there are only two candidates that, for me, don't have really big negatives. The negatives:.

Trump:. If you have to ask...
Bernie: socialist.
Biden: old.
Warren:. Not as socialist as bernie. Not as old as Joe. But enough of each to be bad.
Bloomberg: old guy buying his way in.

That leaves

Buttigieg:. Gay, and only office is mayor of South Bend. Makes me nervous for general election.
Klobuchar:. Practically unknown before election.


So what I'm hoping for is Biden's SC firewall doesn't hold so that Amy and Pete can fight for the middle lane before I have to make up my mind in Michigan.


And in the silver lining department, a lot of Bloomberg's negatives might be positives to some Trump voters. Rich, accused racist, old, New Yorker? What's not to like?
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Old 11th February 2020, 02:37 PM   #340
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
And in the silver lining department, a lot of Bloomberg's negatives might be positives to some Trump voters. Rich, accused racist, old, New Yorker? What's not to like?
Jealous that he can't buy Trump.
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Old 11th February 2020, 03:20 PM   #341
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
It occurs to me that there are only two candidates that, for me, don't have really big negatives. The negatives:.

Trump:. If you have to ask...
Bernie: Really oldsocialist, and doesn't seem like he changed his mind in 50 years, oddly similar to Trump in many ways.
Biden: Really really old seems even older than he really is.
Warren:. Not as socialist as bernie. and kind of seems like she's probably lying about half of it. Not as old as Joe. But enough of each to be bad.
Bloomberg: old guy buying his way in.

That leaves

Buttigieg:. Gay, and only office is mayor of South Bend. Makes me nervous for general election.
Klobuchar:. Practically unknown before election.


So what I'm hoping for is Biden's SC firewall doesn't hold so that Amy and Pete can fight for the middle lane before I have to make up my mind in Michigan.


And in the silver lining department, a lot of Bloomberg's negatives might be positives to some Trump voters. Rich, accused racist, old, New Yorker? What's not to like?
Other than a few corrections, I generally agree.
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Old 11th February 2020, 03:52 PM   #342
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
It occurs to me that there are only two candidates that, for me, don't have really big negatives. The negatives:.

Trump:. If you have to ask...
Bernie: socialist.
Biden: old.
Warren:. Not as socialist as bernie. Not as old as Joe. But enough of each to be bad.
Bloomberg: old guy buying his way in.

That leaves

Buttigieg:. Gay, and only office is mayor of South Bend. Makes me nervous for general election.
Klobuchar:. Practically unknown before election.


So what I'm hoping for is Biden's SC firewall doesn't hold so that Amy and Pete can fight for the middle lane before I have to make up my mind in Michigan.


And in the silver lining department, a lot of Bloomberg's negatives might be positives to some Trump voters. Rich, accused racist, old, New Yorker? What's not to like?
Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were practically unknown before the election as well. Both knocked out sitting Republicans.
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Old 11th February 2020, 07:02 PM   #343
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Steyer dropping out. Apparently not.

He has decent numbers in upcoming states and, along with others dropping out, expect polls to change alignment quite a bit heading towards Nevada/South Carolina.

But really, if you have to put out a clarification that you're not dropping out, it might be time to drop out.

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Old 11th February 2020, 07:51 PM   #344
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I'm following here because New York Times won't let me see any more articles this month:

https://www.politico.com/2020-electi...new-hampshire/

Bernie winning of course, Pete not far behind in 2nd.
Stronger than expected 3rd place finish for Klobuchar.

Bad night for Liz and Joe.
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:05 PM   #345
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Bad night for Liz and Joe.
I think both are toast. They won't drop out, but they should.

No way is Liz going to wrest control of the left wing from Bernie, at least not barring another heart attack. As for Biden, he missed his chance in 2016. Time to put out the torch and leave the island.


Of course, Warren might be running for Vice President.....
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:11 PM   #346
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I think both are toast. They won't drop out, but they should.

No way is Liz going to wrest control of the left wing from Bernie, at least not barring another heart attack. As for Biden, he missed his chance in 2016. Time to put out the torch and leave the island.


Of course, Warren might be running for Vice President.....
Yeah, a few can play for keeps right now, but several will play as long as they have money to have chips to cash in at convention time.

All this next 5 months is about is building up chips. Who backs who come vote time (with the party able to assert its will on the 2nd vote as a point of leverage, as well) is anybody's guess.

Between now and July 13th, a long slow trickle of data.
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:21 PM   #347
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Looking ahead on the calendar, I see the moderates splitting the vote, leading to a huge win for Bernie on Super Tuesday, just three weeks from now. It's not my preferred outcome, but I don't see any other way forward.

Trump versus McGovern Sanders.

At least, that's my fear.

A lot can happen between now and then, but.....
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:25 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
It occurs to me that there are only two candidates that, for me, don't have really big negatives. The negatives:.

Trump:. If you have to ask...
Bernie: socialist.
Biden: old.
Warren:. Not as socialist as bernie. Not as old as Joe. But enough of each to be bad.
Bloomberg: old guy buying his way in.

That leaves

Buttigieg:. Gay, and only office is mayor of South Bend. Makes me nervous for general election.
Klobuchar:. Practically unknown before election.


So what I'm hoping for is Biden's SC firewall doesn't hold so that Amy and Pete can fight for the middle lane before I have to make up my mind in Michigan.


And in the silver lining department, a lot of Bloomberg's negatives might be positives to some Trump voters. Rich, accused racist, old, New Yorker? What's not to like?
It is funny how nearly everyone thinks Biden is older than Sanders. I mean, on stage in the last debate, he looked like an embalmed mummy. His cultural references are older than mummies.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:27 PM   #349
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Yangís dropped out. I can see his supporters going to Sanders.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:46 PM   #350
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
It is funny how nearly everyone thinks Biden is older than Sanders. I mean, on stage in the last debate, he looked like an embalmed mummy. His cultural references are older than mummies.
Nah, I knew Sanders was older, but I was just picking their most prominent negative characteristic.
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:47 PM   #351
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Nah, I knew Sanders was older, but I was just picking their most prominent negative characteristic.
Okay. But it is interesting that Bidenís age is a bigger factor than Sandersí age.
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:50 PM   #352
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Okay. But it is interesting that Bidenís age is a bigger factor than Sandersí age.
It's the energy factor. Biden doesn't seem to have it.


Of course, Bernie has had a heart attack. That can't help. Another heart attack or some other health scare would turn his age into a big negative.
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Old 11th February 2020, 08:55 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
It's the energy factor. Biden doesn't seem to have it.


Of course, Bernie has had a heart attack. That can't help. Another heart attack or some other health scare would turn his age into a big negative.
Mocha Joe is going down to Latte Larry.
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Old 11th February 2020, 09:01 PM   #354
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Got this off of CBS News.

Quote:
More than 9 in 10 New Hampshire Democratic primary voters are unhappy with the Trump administration, including 81% who are angry. By a factor of almost two to one (62%-34%), voters say they prefer a nominee who can beat President Trump to one they agree with on major issues.

Interesting. Seems more people around the country just want Trump gone.
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Old 11th February 2020, 09:12 PM   #355
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Tulsi Gabbard ready to move on to South Carolina

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Old 11th February 2020, 09:28 PM   #356
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Politico now shows Bernie as the projected winner with about 80% of precincts reported. The margin still looks pretty narrow though.

https://www.politico.com/2020-electi...new-hampshire/
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Old 11th February 2020, 09:50 PM   #357
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Bernie's victory doesn't surprise me in NH.

What was surprising to me is how strong Buttigieg has been these last two states. Perhaps I shouldn't be.
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Old 11th February 2020, 10:07 PM   #358
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Sanders campaign adviser: We've 'got some tricks' to win in Nevada

Interpreted by conservative trolls in the comments to mean they're registering illegal aliens to vote.
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Old 11th February 2020, 10:15 PM   #359
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I'm seeing a lot of headlines reporting NH as a win for Sanders, even though he seems unlikely to net more delegates than the next guy.

Quote:
Sanders and Buttigieg are expected to be awarded the same share of New Hampshire's 24 delegates: nine each, according to NBC News. Klobuchar is projected to win six.
Seems weird to call that a victory, rather than a tie, given the stated rules of the overall contest.

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Old 11th February 2020, 10:25 PM   #360
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
I'm seeing a lot of headlines reporting NH as a win for Sanders, even though he seems unlikely to net more delegates than the next guy.

Seems weird to call that a victory, rather than a tie, given the stated rules of the overall contest.

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He can still claim it as a win. And Buttigieg can point out that he ended up with just as many delegates, if indeed that's the final result. There's still more precincts left to report though.
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