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Tags 2020 elections , Bernie Sanders , presidential candidates

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Old 11th February 2020, 11:23 AM   #121
SuburbanTurkey
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Bernie Sanders volunteers knock on nearly 1/4 of all doors in NH in a single day. Canvassed 150,000 homes on the Saturday before the NH primary.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/bernie...ill?ref=scroll
Quote:
Consider just the data. There are more than 150 Sanders campaign staffers in New Hampshire along with 17 state offices. On Saturday alone, the campaign had about 1,000 out-of-state volunteers helping with get-out-the-vote operations on top of the 14,000 regular, active volunteers in the state. The number of households that the campaign visited just that day was 150,000. The state only has about 640,000 household units, according to Census data.

This is a winning strategy.
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Old 11th February 2020, 11:27 AM   #122
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Does knocking on doors actually help? I don't accept uninvited persons on my doorstep unless they're delivering something I want, and political pitches is never it. I don't even like being approached by staff for the candidate I'm voting for, much less other candidates.
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Old 11th February 2020, 12:06 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Does knocking on doors actually help? I don't accept uninvited persons on my doorstep unless they're delivering something I want, and political pitches is never it. I don't even like being approached by staff for the candidate I'm voting for, much less other candidates.
According to wikipedia, door to door canvassing is the most effective form of direct contact.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canvassing#Effectiveness
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Old 11th February 2020, 12:28 PM   #124
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A real ground game is incredibly effective. One of the criticisms I have heard about Clinton's run was that she relied too much on a top down strategy, working with high priced consultants strategizing on a national level. Rumor is, Obama, Biden, and even Bill warned her against this.

Candidates this time around are doing a lot more leg work, especially Sanders and Warren. You can pummel folks with all the facts you want, but we're social creatures in the end. Human contact triggers things in our brains.
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Old 11th February 2020, 04:29 PM   #125
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Originally Posted by Donal View Post
A real ground game is incredibly effective. One of the criticisms I have heard about Clinton's run was that she relied too much on a top down strategy, working with high priced consultants strategizing on a national level. Rumor is, Obama, Biden, and even Bill warned her against this.

Candidates this time around are doing a lot more leg work, especially Sanders and Warren. You can pummel folks with all the facts you want, but we're social creatures in the end. Human contact triggers things in our brains.
And it helps hammer in that name recognition, a simple but often overlooked factor.
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Old 11th February 2020, 09:42 PM   #126
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Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire primary -

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/11/211330...9ys1QJDgWXEfTY
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Old 12th February 2020, 12:19 AM   #127
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Oooh. The "all-important" New Hampshire primary.

ETA:
Quote:
“Let me take the opportunity to thank the people of New Hampshire for a great victory tonight. Let me say tonight this victory here is the beginning of the end for Donald Trump,” Sanders said at his victory speech at Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester, walking on to “Power to the People” by John Lennon.
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Old 12th February 2020, 05:03 AM   #128
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It's official, Bernie Sanders, the frontrunner.
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Old 12th February 2020, 06:57 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
It's official, Bernie Sanders, the frontrunner.
Whether he win's or loses this represents a paradigm shift that shouldn't be underplayed. The fact a democratic socialist candidate is leading in a pivotal election may represent a real and permanent shift in the orientation of the Democratic party further to the left even without an election victory. It's about time the Dem's ACTUALLY separate themselves from the Republican party instead of giving us the Republican lite product they've been shoveling into everybody's mouth for endless cycles.

Bernie's usefulness may transcend far beyond this election (my hope).
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Old 12th February 2020, 11:39 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Bernie Sanders volunteers knock on nearly 1/4 of all doors in NH in a single day. Canvassed 150,000 homes on the Saturday before the NH primary.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/bernie...ill?ref=scroll



This is a winning strategy.
For NH and other States around that size, perhaps. Is that going to work in a state like Florida where there are around 8million households?

All I can say is that my kids are very excited about Bernie being the front-runner right now. However, I think the field needs to thin by about half before we get a really good picture. I think Super Tuesday will have Biden surging a bit and we'll be down to 2 or 3 candidates. Biden, Sanders and Warren/Bloomberg. In that scenario, I don't see how Warren/Bloomberg has a shot and Biden has enough support in the big states that I think he'll eke out the nom.

Book it!
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Old 12th February 2020, 02:19 PM   #131
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
For NH and other States around that size, perhaps. Is that going to work in a state like Florida where there are around 8million households?

Won't that depend on the number of local volunteers? The young people in Florida can't all be spring breakers ...
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Old 12th February 2020, 02:22 PM   #132
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Won't that depend on the number of local volunteers? The young people in Florida can't all be spring breakers ...
Indeed.

The vast majority of NH door knockers were local NH Bernie supporters.

Bernie enjoys an enthusiastic base in every state. There is no reason to suspect that he cannot maintain this level of face-to-face canvassing.
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Old 12th February 2020, 03:30 PM   #133
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This article examines the "electable" issue from a historical perspective:

Quote:
To say that insiders from both the Democratic and Republican parties have not exactly been clairvoyant about electability in my lifetime would be a massive understatement. Indeed, for every Goldwater or McGovern, there have been multiple consensus-oriented, party-supported moderates who have gone on to bitter defeat. For Democrats, that roster includes Michael Dukakis (1988), Al Gore (2000), John Kerry (2004), and Hillary Clinton (2016). For Republicans, it is general election losers like Bob Dole (1996), John McCain (2008), and Mitt Romney (2012). We'll never know, of course, whether their outsider primary opponents would have done better, but in most cases they could hardly have done worse.

Democrats might actually be roughly where the GOP was at this point in 1980. Most party insiders expected conservative insurgent Ronald Reagan to win the nomination after nearly winning the 1976 primary fight against sitting President Gerald Ford. But a U.S. News and World Report survey of Republican national and state committee members found overwhelming support for his moderate rival, George H.W. Bush. Elites were convinced that a "philosophical moderate" would be the best bet against incumbent President Jimmy Carter, and GOP officials shared the widespread sense that Reagan, once a prominent Hollywood actor, was a joke. One state GOP chairman yearned for a candidate "who is in the mainstream so we can pick up the ticket-splitting voters."

The insiders were completely, almost diametrically wrong. Reagan went on to win 44 states in a 9.7-point drubbing of Carter. Not only did Reagan not cost the party those "ticket-splitters," his long coattails brought in a Republican Senate majority for the first time in 26 years and inaugurated a generation of GOP dominance of national politics. Those insiders were wrong about something else too — almost to a person, they thought that Carter would be the tougher re-election opponent rather than his primary rival, Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts. That's because, as difficult as this is to remember from today's vantage point, Carter was considered a moderate in 1980 and Kennedy was the unreconstructed New Deal liberal.

That's not to say that fears about extreme candidates are always unwarranted. In April 2012, for example, President Obama led Republican Rick Santorum in head-to-head matchups by an average of 7.8 points, almost twice the lead he had at the time over the eventual nominee, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Santorum's combination of rigid right-wing economic stances and retrograde religious and moral stances were a terrible fit for the national electorate that year. The same seems to have been true in 2008, when the squirrel-eating evangelical darling and Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee was doing substantially worse against Obama than establishment favorite John McCain, although it's worth noting that McCain lost the general election by about the same margin that Huckabee would have been expected to when he dropped out.

The "unelectable" charge was also lobbed at Obama during that race, by both pundits and Hillary Clinton's campaign. And rank-and-file Democrats agreed, right up until it became clear that he was going to edge Clinton out for the nomination. A December 2007 poll found that Democrats thought Clinton was more electable than Obama by a 63-14 margin. The Clinton campaign, especially strategist Mark Penn, kept hammering this point through the end of the contests, hoping to flip superdelegates at the Democratic National Convention. But polling, nearly from the outset of that campaign, correctly pegged Obama as the more competitive candidate, based in part on his appeal to independent voters. He went on to demolish McCain and brought a Democratic supermajority with him in the Senate.
Linky.
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Old 12th February 2020, 04:59 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Won't that depend on the number of local volunteers? The young people in Florida can't all be spring breakers ...
I suppose it would. In order to match the ratio of volunteers he had in NH 15,000 to 640,000 households (=.0234375), Bernie would need about 193k volunteers to show up in FL (8,271,058 households).

Genuinely asking: Does he have that many?

ETA: Considering that he got 568,839 people to vote for him in Florida, I suppose it's in the realm of possibility. However, polls show him splitting 2nd place with Warren and Bloomberg right now. He may not want to dedicate much effort there.
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Old 12th February 2020, 05:14 PM   #135
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
I suppose it would. In order to match the ratio of volunteers he had in NH 15,000 to 640,000 households (=.0234375), Bernie would need about 193k volunteers to show up in FL (8,271,058 households).

Genuinely asking: Does he have that many?

ETA: Considering that he got 568,839 people to vote for him in Florida, I suppose it's in the realm of possibility. However, polls show him splitting 2nd place with Warren and Bloomberg right now. He may not want to dedicate much effort there.
I would imagine it would get stretched a bit thinner, especially for the big multi-state primary days. Probably a bit optimistic to hope But the point remains, Bernie has a ground game that no other candidate can match.
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Old 12th February 2020, 10:03 PM   #136
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“Bernie or Bust” Voters Have a Point

Quote:
“Bernie or Bust”—the stance that the senator’s supporters will vote for Sanders or no one at all—has been widely regarded as aggressive, counterproductive, and tonally at odds with the senator’s actual message. . . .
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Old 12th February 2020, 10:45 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Holding the Democratic Party hostage.
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Old 13th February 2020, 04:41 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
Holding the Democratic Party hostage.
This is, at least in theory, a democracy. If a group of people have acquired sway over things it means everyone else is either okay with it or too few in number to change it.

The era of caring for the wishes of a hypothetical majority too lazy to act is over. If they can't be bothered to act they don't deserve to get what they purportedly want.
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Old 13th February 2020, 05:35 AM   #139
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
This is, at least in theory, a democracy. If a group of people have acquired sway over things it means everyone else is either okay with it or too few in number to change it.

The era of caring for the wishes of a hypothetical majority too lazy to act is over. If they can't be bothered to act they don't deserve to get what they purportedly want.
In this case, the active majority so far has acted and has not voted for him. They have bothered and most of them do not support Sanders.
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Old 13th February 2020, 05:44 AM   #140
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
In this case, the active majority so far has acted and has not voted for him. They have bothered and most of them do not support Sanders.
Primaries are won by pluralities, not majorities.
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Old 13th February 2020, 05:44 AM   #141
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
The parallel between Sanders supporters and swing voters is interesting..
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Old 13th February 2020, 05:53 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Primaries are won by pluralities, not majorities.
Which is why if tragic monkey made an argument about plurality, I wouldn't have responded.
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Old 13th February 2020, 06:45 AM   #143
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
This is, at least in theory, a democracy. If a group of people have acquired sway over things it means everyone else is either okay with it or too few in number to change it.

The era of caring for the wishes of a hypothetical majority too lazy to act is over. If they can't be bothered to act they don't deserve to get what they purportedly want.
That sounds very historically "Bolshevik", when do they plan on seizing the railroads?
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Old 13th February 2020, 06:52 AM   #144
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Originally Posted by rockysmith76 View Post
That sounds very historically "Bolshevik", when do they plan on seizing the railroads?
Pointing out that participation is required in a democracy is "Bolshevik" now? Like those notorious commies Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin?
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Old 13th February 2020, 06:59 AM   #145
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The progressive wing of the party is large enough and powerful enough to demand a seat at the table in the greater Democratic party.

For decades, the establishment has been content in the knowledge that the progressives had no where else to go. They could capitulate to the establishment or piss their votes away on some third party. The slate article is right to point out that they have been electoral hostages for many years.

That time is over. The progressives aren't powerful enough to take over the party, but they are correct to point out that they have earned the right to exercise some level of influence. This means that some concessions will have to be made. A true compromise with progressive policy, not just tokenism.

Party unity has been wielded by the establishment as a cudgel to batter progressives into compliance. That cudgel is becoming increasingly less effective as the progressive wing grows. For the party to remain viable and united, progressives will have to be treated as a serious component of the overall party.

If there is going to be a fracture in the party, the blame will lie at the feet of the establishment types who refused to recognize legitimacy of the progressive wing.
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Old 13th February 2020, 07:26 AM   #146
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
The progressive wing of the party is large enough and powerful enough to demand a seat at the table in the greater Democratic party.

For decades, the establishment has been content in the knowledge that the progressives had no where else to go. They could capitulate to the establishment or piss their votes away on some third party. The slate article is right to point out that they have been electoral hostages for many years.

That time is over. The progressives aren't powerful enough to take over the party, but they are correct to point out that they have earned the right to exercise some level of influence. This means that some concessions will have to be made. A true compromise with progressive policy, not just tokenism.

Party unity has been wielded by the establishment as a cudgel to batter progressives into compliance. That cudgel is becoming increasingly less effective as the progressive wing grows. For the party to remain viable and united, progressives will have to be treated as a serious component of the overall party.

If there is going to be a fracture in the party, the blame will lie at the feet of the establishment types who refused to recognize legitimacy of the progressive wing.
Thanks for saving me the time I'd have spent typing out a far less coherent version of this riddled with absurd jokes that like six people would get.
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Old 13th February 2020, 07:30 AM   #147
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Pointing out that participation is required in a democracy is "Bolshevik" now? Like those notorious commies Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin?
You created an image of the minority taking over the party, which is similar to what happened back into proto USSR when the Boleshviks split from another Communist faction though I forget the name of them.

Bolsehviks then went on the grab the trains and everything else. If the shoe fits your analogy otherwise prove otherwise.

Bernieism wants to storm the Dems and be in a position to shove the Socialist states of America on the rest of us. Most of us don't want that.
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Old 13th February 2020, 07:31 AM   #148
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
The progressive wing of the party is large enough and powerful enough to demand a seat at the table in the greater Democratic party.

For decades, the establishment has been content in the knowledge that the progressives had no where else to go. They could capitulate to the establishment or piss their votes away on some third party. The slate article is right to point out that they have been electoral hostages for many years.

That time is over. The progressives aren't powerful enough to take over the party, but they are correct to point out that they have earned the right to exercise some level of influence. This means that some concessions will have to be made. A true compromise with progressive policy, not just tokenism.

Party unity has been wielded by the establishment as a cudgel to batter progressives into compliance. That cudgel is becoming increasingly less effective as the progressive wing grows. For the party to remain viable and united, progressives will have to be treated as a serious component of the overall party.

If there is going to be a fracture in the party, the blame will lie at the feet of the establishment types who refused to recognize legitimacy of the progressive wing.
Or go their own way and get out of the way.
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Old 13th February 2020, 07:55 AM   #149
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
The progressive wing of the party is large enough and powerful enough to demand a seat at the table in the greater Democratic party.

For decades, the establishment has been content in the knowledge that the progressives had no where else to go. They could capitulate to the establishment or piss their votes away on some third party. The slate article is right to point out that they have been electoral hostages for many years.

That time is over. The progressives aren't powerful enough to take over the party, but they are correct to point out that they have earned the right to exercise some level of influence. This means that some concessions will have to be made. A true compromise with progressive policy, not just tokenism.

Party unity has been wielded by the establishment as a cudgel to batter progressives into compliance. That cudgel is becoming increasingly less effective as the progressive wing grows. For the party to remain viable and united, progressives will have to be treated as a serious component of the overall party.

If there is going to be a fracture in the party, the blame will lie at the feet of the establishment types who refused to recognize legitimacy of the progressive wing.
The establishment in this case is black people, women, and the elderly. That is the base of the party and who give the establishment power.
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:13 AM   #150
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
The establishment in this case is black people, women, and the elderly. That is the base of the party and who give the establishment power.
Only if they vote. If they don't vote, they don't count. If they do vote, they'll overwhelm any opposition if their numbers truly are as you suggest.
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:19 AM   #151
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
A true compromise with progressive policy, not just tokenism.
Can you think of an example of a "true compromise" on the table right now?

Can you think of an example of mere tokenism in roughly the same policy arena?
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:21 AM   #152
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Only if they vote. If they don't vote, they don't count. If they do vote, they'll overwhelm any opposition if their numbers truly are as you suggest.
...those groups do have good turnout.
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:32 AM   #153
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
...those groups do have good turnout.
Then no doubt they will defeat the evul Bernie Bros and install Obama 2.0 as the party champion.
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:35 AM   #154
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Then no doubt they will defeat the evul Bernie Bros and install Obama 2.0 as the party champion.
Please respond to my post that was actually a reply to you discussing your use of the word "majority". There is an active majority that has demonstrated they don't support him by voting against him this year.
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:53 AM   #155
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Please respond to my post that was actually a reply to you discussing your use of the word "majority". There is an active majority that has demonstrated they don't support him by voting against him this year.
Then what's your complaint? If the majority of voters vote against him, he loses and is no longer a problem.
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:55 AM   #156
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Here is one union that Sanders may be having some problems with:

From: https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...cted-president
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders would “end Culinary Healthcare” if elected president, according to a new one-pager the politically powerful Culinary Union is posting back of house on the Las Vegas Strip...The Culinary Union, which provides health insurance to 130,000 workers and their family members through a special trust fund, strongly opposes Medicare for all on the basis that it would eliminate the health insurance they have negotiated for over several decades....(Another handout) obliquely accuses Sanders and Warren of wanting to take away union members’ hard-fought health plans and warns that electing a candidate who supports Medicare for all would lead to four more years of a Donald Trump presidency.

Granted, just because the union as a whole may take a certain position, that doesn't necessarily mean all members will follow it. But, union heads are supposed to be a bit better informed about things.

Think about that... we are talking about a union. Supposedly one of the bedrocks of the Democratic party, and a group that Sanders should have locked in. Yet they are rejecting one of the signature elements of Sanders' campaign platform. How do you think your average white-collar worker (who gets health insurance through work) is going to view it?
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:56 AM   #157
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Then what's your complaint? If the majority of voters vote against him, he loses and is no longer a problem.
Because he wins with a plurality.
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:57 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
Can you think of an example of a "true compromise" on the table right now?

Can you think of an example of mere tokenism in roughly the same policy arena?
I see no examples where compromises are being considered because the establishment refuses to recognize the legitimacy of the left wing.

The bad faith arguments and hyperbolic wailing needs to stop before any real coordination can begin.

That's going to mean progressives being admitted into party leadership and support roles. It means ending the coordinated anti-left bias in the party.

We have people like Chris Matthews on TV about to start crying because Bernie is going to guillotine him in Central Park. This is absurd.
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Old 13th February 2020, 10:01 AM   #159
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Here is one union that Sanders may be having some problems with:

From: https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...cted-president
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders would “end Culinary Healthcare” if elected president, according to a new one-pager the politically powerful Culinary Union is posting back of house on the Las Vegas Strip...The Culinary Union, which provides health insurance to 130,000 workers and their family members through a special trust fund, strongly opposes Medicare for all on the basis that it would eliminate the health insurance they have negotiated for over several decades....(Another handout) obliquely accuses Sanders and Warren of wanting to take away union members’ hard-fought health plans and warns that electing a candidate who supports Medicare for all would lead to four more years of a Donald Trump presidency.

Granted, just because the union as a whole may take a certain position, that doesn't necessarily mean all members will follow it. But, union heads are supposed to be a bit better informed about things.

Think about that... we are talking about a union. Supposedly one of the bedrocks of the Democratic party, and a group that Sanders should have locked in. Yet they are rejecting one of the signature elements of Sanders' campaign platform. How do you think your average white-collar worker (who gets health insurance through work) is going to view it?
In a less petty light? They are right up there with the people that oppose free college or student loan forgiveness because they had to pay back their loans. I'm sure someone who survived smallpox felt the same way when the vaccine was introduced.

If the union didn't have to use its resources to fight for and obtain health care they could use it to get other concessions or provide other resources for members. Union leadership has every right to be as short-sighted and moronic as anyone else.

As to white collar workers, most present insurance is garbage and getting worse by the year. People who like their insurance most likely never had to use it. I thought mine was dandy until I had to file for medical bankruptcy.

Last edited by Suddenly; 13th February 2020 at 10:02 AM.
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Old 13th February 2020, 10:06 AM   #160
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Here is one union that Sanders may be having some problems with:

From: https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...cted-president
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders would “end Culinary Healthcare” if elected president, according to a new one-pager the politically powerful Culinary Union is posting back of house on the Las Vegas Strip...The Culinary Union, which provides health insurance to 130,000 workers and their family members through a special trust fund, strongly opposes Medicare for all on the basis that it would eliminate the health insurance they have negotiated for over several decades....(Another handout) obliquely accuses Sanders and Warren of wanting to take away union members’ hard-fought health plans and warns that electing a candidate who supports Medicare for all would lead to four more years of a Donald Trump presidency.

Granted, just because the union as a whole may take a certain position, that doesn't necessarily mean all members will follow it. But, union heads are supposed to be a bit better informed about things.

Think about that... we are talking about a union. Supposedly one of the bedrocks of the Democratic party, and a group that Sanders should have locked in. Yet they are rejecting one of the signature elements of Sanders' campaign platform. How do you think your average white-collar worker (who gets health insurance through work) is going to view it?
Bernie has more union endorsements than any other candidate by a long shot. His opponents are getting a lot of mileage out of this criticism, but Bernie remains the union candidate.

Unions would be much, much better off at the negotiating table if they weren't having rehash the same old arguments about health care costs every time their contracts expired. Union members would be better of if getting fired didn't mean losing their health benefits.
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