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Old 7th February 2020, 09:42 AM   #1
theprestige
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I'm Calling 2020 for Not-Trump

Whoever the Dems end up nominating, I think they'll probably win.

There's a lot of voters who are going to vote "R" because they always vote "R". There's a lot of voters who are going to vote Trump because they believe in him even though he's not very believable, and even though he's not done a good job of delivering on some of his more appealing campaign promises.

But very few of those people are in the middle, and none of them are on the left. So I think it comes down to the mood of the people in the middle - swing voters in swing states specifically - and whether it's changed much since 2016.

Swing voters aren't looking at Hillary this time around, which has got to affect their mood one way or another. And Trump has been an unremitting jackass throughout his first term. Tabula rasa, nominee Trump vs nominee Hillary, Trump barely wins in 2016. In 2020, those same voters are looking at a Trump who now has a track record as president, versus one of a handful of Democrats.

I figure, any one of those handful of Democrats will do better than Trump in the general campaign. Trump will have to rely on his strategy of populist rallies and rhetoric. This was good at capturing the core of the GOP in 2016. I doubt it's going to capture anyone in the middle in 2020. He didn't drain the swamp. He got impeached. He's obviously a jackass. Any one of the Democrats should be able to put together a more coherent, more plausible-sounding stump speech for the people in the middle.

Etc. I think the voters in the middle are going to be inclined to take a chance, even on Bernie if it comes to that, rather than put up with Trump for another four years.

Really, after Trump, what's the worst that could happen? Why not try something else?

Last edited by theprestige; 7th February 2020 at 09:43 AM.
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Old 7th February 2020, 09:55 AM   #2
Joe Random
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Whoever the Dems end up nominating, I think they'll probably win.

There's a lot of voters who are going to vote "R" because they always vote "R". There's a lot of voters who are going to vote Trump because they believe in him even though he's not very believable, and even though he's not done a good job of delivering on some of his more appealing campaign promises.

But very few of those people are in the middle, and none of them are on the left. So I think it comes down to the mood of the people in the middle - swing voters in swing states specifically - and whether it's changed much since 2016.

Swing voters aren't looking at Hillary this time around, which has got to affect their mood one way or another. And Trump has been an unremitting jackass throughout his first term. Tabula rasa, nominee Trump vs nominee Hillary, Trump barely wins in 2016. In 2020, those same voters are looking at a Trump who now has a track record as president, versus one of a handful of Democrats.

I figure, any one of those handful of Democrats will do better than Trump in the general campaign. Trump will have to rely on his strategy of populist rallies and rhetoric. This was good at capturing the core of the GOP in 2016. I doubt it's going to capture anyone in the middle in 2020. He didn't drain the swamp. He got impeached. He's obviously a jackass. Any one of the Democrats should be able to put together a more coherent, more plausible-sounding stump speech for the people in the middle.

Etc. I think the voters in the middle are going to be inclined to take a chance, even on Bernie if it comes to that, rather than put up with Trump for another four years.

Really, after Trump, what's the worst that could happen? Why not try something else?

Serious question : do you think that will outweigh the whole incumbent/economy/employment angle? I've given up trying to speculate after 2016 so I don't have any idea myself. Curious if you think the negatives Trump has will have more pull with middle voters than the 'don't change horses mid-race' bit. I mean I sure as hell hope you're right, but I'm not making any bets beyond 'the sun will rise tomorrow' these days.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:09 AM   #3
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I disagree with the OP. I think that unless the Democratic Party manage to find a charismatic and popular candidate, President Trump has a very high probability of being re-elected.

He can absolutely count on 40-45% support from his base and GOP party faithful. Enough of the rest are content enough economically to vote for him, won't bother to vote, or will vote for a third party candidate to see him home comfortably.

The only people who care about President Trump's behaviour are already implacably opposed to him. For many people it's either not a big deal or even a reason to support him.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:12 AM   #4
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I agree that Trump will probably lose in 2020.

His victory in 2016 was razor thin, and came down to only a few thousand votes in a few states. He has done nothing to grow his base of supporters, and his actions have probably turned off at least a few of his former supporters who thought he could be better than he actually ended up being. Furthermore, there were at least a few potential democrats who sat out the 2016 election, thinking either "my vote won't matter", or "how bad could it get if I don't vote", who are now going to be more motivated than ever to vote.

However, that said, I am not so sure of the Democratic victory that I would place money on it. Trump has a very stable approval rating. (Its under water and he is unable to make it increase, but it isn't dropping significantly either.) Plus, he will still benefit from things like the Electoral college, Russian interference, and voter suppression.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:14 AM   #5
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I think it’s very hard to guess due to the media and peer group bubbles that both sides live in.

Also, the rise in partisan vitriol has led to an increase in the “shy voter”.



I have no idea who will win.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:16 AM   #6
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For those who think Trump will lose: how do you think he'll take it? Graceful acceptance? Grumbling but compliant? Or fighting all out to overturn the results and retain the office, coming at you in a whirlwind of fists and elbows, you're screaming 'stop, stop' but all he hears is 'who wants cake?'
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:23 AM   #7
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I hope you are right, but I am coming to the opposite conclusion.

The Trumpist base doesn't care about his jackassery or the impeachment. All they care is that he's proven that he'll keep "owning the libs" as long as he's in office. And right leaning moderates are going to overlook all his absurdity and focus on 1) decent economy, 2) lower taxes, 3) conservative judges, and 4) demonstration of some disinclination for war. I'm thinking the right is going to have better turnout in '20 than '16.

And with Iowa's turnout returning to '16 levels, and how the nomination race is almost certainly going to result in either an unenthused wing of the party or scaring off plausible non-party moderates... it doesn't look good for "Not-Trump".
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:26 AM   #8
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I'll be very interested to see how Trump handles a loss.

I don't think he'll have to be dragged out like some believe. How does a man almost completely lacking empathy and grace leave office?
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:28 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
For those who think Trump will lose: how do you think he'll take it? Graceful acceptance? Grumbling but compliant? Or fighting all out to overturn the results and retain the office, coming at you in a whirlwind of fists and elbows, you're screaming 'stop, stop' but all he hears is 'who wants cake?'
I would describe his behavior at losing would be a combination of Hoof in Mouth,and Rabies, with some Mad hatter's Syndrome.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:31 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Whoever the Dems end up nominating, I think they'll probably win.
You're not alone:

Bitecofer, a 42-year-old professor at Christopher Newport University in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, was little known in the extremely online, extremely male-dominated world of political forecasting until November 2018. That’s when she nailed almost to the number the nature and size of the Democrats’ win in the House, even as other forecasters went wobbly in the race’s final days. Not only that, but she put out her forecast back in July, and then stuck by it while polling shifted throughout the summer and fall.

And today her model tells her the Democrats are a near lock for the presidency in 2020, and are likely to gain House seats and have a decent shot at retaking the Senate.


https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...heory-108944?f
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:34 AM   #11
Segnosaur
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
I'll be very interested to see how Trump handles a loss.

I don't think he'll have to be dragged out like some believe. How does a man almost completely lacking empathy and grace leave office?
I'm more interested in the transition process in various departments...

Whenever a change of government happens, the new administration has to 'learn' from the old one (where all the bodies are buried, the best place to get a coffee in the neighborhood, etc.) When the Trump administration came in, they paid little attention to the transition process.

Now that Trump has done his best to wreck government, has appointed all sorts of incompetent people, and the republicans as a whole have become completely corrupt, will they give ANY cooperation to an incoming Democratic administration? Or will they lock the doors the day after the election and torch the building on the way out of town?
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:38 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I agree that Trump will probably lose in 2020.

His victory in 2016 was razor thin, and came down to only a few thousand votes in a few states.
.....
I am not the only person who thinks that Trump's biggest asset in 2016 was the tone of Clinton's campaign: "I'm entitled to win, I deserve to win and I'm sure to win." That had two effects: 1/ Some voters in the "blue" states who supported her didn't go to the polls in the rain and cold and snow because they thought their votes weren't needed; 2/ Some voters (and we'll never know how many) voted for Trump not because they wanted him to be President, but because they wanted to cast a protest vote against "the system," and they felt safe that it wouldn't have real consequences. This time everybody knows what's at stake. The only people voting for Trump will be people who really want him to be President, and everybody who doesn't will be strongly inclined to go out and vote for any Democrat.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:39 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I doubt it's going to capture anyone in the middle in 2020. He didn't drain the swamp. He got impeached. He's obviously a jackass.
That's your summary of his first term. Is that how independents would summarise it? Something like 45% of the "approve" of him at the moment, I think for what ever that means.

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Any one of the Democrats should be able to put together a more coherent, more plausible-sounding stump speech for the people in the middle.
Even Biden?

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Etc. I think the voters in the middle are going to be inclined to take a chance, even on Bernie if it comes to that, rather than put up with Trump for another four years.
Maybe last time some of them didn't vote for him because they were afraid he didn't have the experience and would tank the economy, or start a war. Maybe they won't see him as the risk they saw him as in 2016?

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Really, after Trump, what's the worst that could happen? Why not try something else?
An economic crash? Another neo-lib/neo-con war? Higher taxes? Job losses? Maybe all that and worse will still happen with Trump, but at the moment far worse things have happened under previous Presidents.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:45 AM   #14
theprestige
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
For those who think Trump will lose: how do you think he'll take it? Graceful acceptance? Grumbling but compliant? Or fighting all out to overturn the results and retain the office, coming at you in a whirlwind of fists and elbows, you're screaming 'stop, stop' but all he hears is 'who wants cake?'
A lot of bluster, a lot of rhetoric, but not much action other than to step down, and then call it a win the way he's done with every other failure and setback in his life.

Maybe some half-assed attempt at using the power of his office to do something about it. But since he doesn't really understand the power of his office, and the number of people in the executive branch who want to get into those kinds of shenanigans is apparently pretty small, it won't go anywhere. It'll be the outrage of a news cycle, and then promptly fade away.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:46 AM   #15
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Good afternoon. How could Trump possibly lose? He has been given the green light to use any and all powers of his office to do whatever he wants to get re-elected. He can and has, and will, continue to use foreign help to influence the election. He has and will, continue to use his power to investigate and or at least slander any and all of his opponents in this election. Barr has issued an order that no one can open an investigation into any candidate without his approval. The only way he could lose the next election is if he doesn't want to be President anymore.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:48 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Really, after Trump, what's the worst that could happen? Why not try something else?
I think this is why Trump will win. We were told all sorts of terrible things would happen if Trump was elected. But then... they didn't. Oh sure, the press keeps saying terrible things keep happening. But really, how did any of this stuff affect the average American? The economy is doing fairly well and we haven't started any new wars. If you voted for Trump last time, has anything happened that would make you change your mind? No, not really. But for some of the people who voted against Trump, something did happen that might change their minds: nothing. He wasn't the disaster that was predicted. People who voted against him out of fear that these predictions might come true may now vote for him.

You said, "He didn't drain the swamp. He got impeached. He's obviously a jackass." Nobody drains the swamp. Impeachment was just a political spectacle without any real impact. And everyone knew Trump was a jackass back in 2016. So despite the hand wringing, a lot of voters are still going to be fairly satisfied.

And none of the top contenders for the Dem nomination are good candidates. I've seen before where a Republican candidate loses in polls to a generic "Democrat" opponent, only to win against the actual opponent the Dems put up. If the Dems could runs someone faceless, they'd probably do better than they will with this crowd.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:50 AM   #17
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The consequences of the Trumpsters' time in office will begin to be realized as soon as we put someone into the office who takes the job seriously.

What can be "achieved" post Trump will be severely hamstrung by the necessity to do damage control on the budget, and the apparatus of government itself.

Trump could conceivably roll the damage over for a while longer (as a person might continually roll over their debt until their credit is exhausted- living a life of apparent plenty in the meantime) but I think the Republican establishment has a whiff that the party is almost over and don't wish to be the Party in charge when the bill comes due. Their M/O has been that way for the past several decades. They are going to be happy to let this one go, even if the Trumpsters don't give in so easily.
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Old 7th February 2020, 10:50 AM   #18
theprestige
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
That's your summary of his first term. Is that how independents would summarise it? Something like 45% of the "approve" of him at the moment, I think for what ever that means.
It's my guessitimate of how the indpendents will summarize it.

On the other hand, if independents are still majority pro-Trump after four years of the guy, that probably changes a lot of the conventional wisdom about what makes Trump attractive to many Americans.

Unless it turns out most independents are also crypto-Nazis that regularly vote Democrat for some reason.

Quote:
Even Biden?
Even Biden should be able to pull it off.

Quote:
Maybe last time some of them didn't vote for him because they were afraid he didn't have the experience and would tank the economy, or start a war. Maybe they won't see him as the risk they saw him as in 2016?
Good point. I hadn't factored in that possibility.

Quote:
An economic crash? Another neo-lib/neo-con war? Higher taxes? Job losses? Maybe all that and worse will still happen with Trump, but at the moment far worse things have happened under previous Presidents.
Also a good point. If we reject the premise that Trump is obviously the worst President ever, then his chances with independents start to look a lot better.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:01 AM   #19
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My predictions, which are not worth the paper you could print them on, let alone the overpriced ink:
1. Not-Trump will win the popular vote by a substantial margin.
2. Not-Trump will win the electoral vote by a much less substantial margin. Especially in a few key states, much like 2016.
3. Trump will be screaming about fraud even before election day.
4. Trump will file suits to overturn results the day after the election. If not actually before the vote.
5. It will wind up in SCOTUS and we'll see just what kind of American CJ Roberts actually is, because it'll be 4-4 otherwise.
6. Unless RBG has died and been replaced, in which case we're screwed.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:08 AM   #20
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The sad thing is, Ziggy may be correct. Many people in Russia don't understand that they live under a dictator either.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:09 AM   #21
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I'd join in, but I have no idea.

On one hand, the economy hasn't collapsed which is usually good for the incumbent. If Trump operated like most politicians and tried to be the President of the entire nation as opposed to just the crazies in his own party, I think his reelection would be a given.

But on the other hand Trump won the last time by a thread. And while he has solidified his base, Trump has alienated almost everyone else. Even if they don't know it yet. By that, I mean he has openly threatened popular programs and has not as Prestige said, not delivered on many campaign promises.

Wait till his opposition is running hard against Trump and not each other. When ad after ad will be about Trump's lies and broken promises. But after 2016, I'm done prognosticating.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:14 AM   #22
Segnosaur
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Quote:
Really, after Trump, what's the worst that could happen? Why not try something else?
An economic crash?
Well given the fact that the economy is cyclical, another recession will come eventually. the problem with Trump is that his actions (increased deficits, removing regulations, etc.) will make the matters worse when problems actually come.

Now, unfortunately the average voter probably doesn't really care too much about the future when faced with immediate issues.
Quote:
Another neo-lib/neo-con war?
Well, given the fact that none of the Democratic contenders seem particularly 'hawkish', there doesn't really seem to be too much risk of that.
Quote:
Higher taxes?
Actually, under the Republican Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, many of the individual tax cuts are actually set to expire within the next few years. End result: many lower/middle-class taxpayers will actually end up paying MORE than they would have before.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...market-economy

And lets face it... the government needs money to run. They can either use taxes or increase debt. The republicans have opted to increase debt, but that can only go so far, and eventually the money has to be paid back.

Sadly, issues of government finance are not necessarily major issues to most voters.
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Job losses?
Job growth actually slowed under Trump. Post-recession, Obama had higher job growth, and he managed to do that while decreasing the deficit. Under Trump, job growth has slowed and the deficit increased.

Again, its unfortunate that voters aren't necessarily paying attention to historical economic trends; otherwise, they would give Trump far less credit for his handling of the economy.
Quote:
Maybe all that and worse will still happen with Trump, but at the moment far worse things have happened under previous Presidents.
The key phrase there is "at the moment". Trump is doing everything he can to stave off an immediate collapse until after the election, when things will really start to go downhill.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:19 AM   #23
theprestige
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
The sad thing is, Ziggy may be correct. Many people in Russia don't understand that they live under a dictator either.
That's another thing I haven't factored in yet:

Whether the voters in the middle are aware of just how much the voters on the left hate them - just how much the voters on the left call them stupid, and racist, and nazis. And just how much the voters in the middle care.

I suppose it could be argued that if you tell them often enough that voting for a Nazi makes them a Nazi, they'll come around to your point of view. They'll vote the way you tell them to, so that you stop calling them Nazis. 2020 may be end up being a referendum on that argument.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:24 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I agree that Trump will probably lose in 2020.

His victory in 2016 was razor thin, and came down to only a few thousand votes in a few states. He has done nothing to grow his base of supporters, and his actions have probably turned off at least a few of his former supporters who thought he could be better than he actually ended up being. Furthermore, there were at least a few potential democrats who sat out the 2016 election, thinking either "my vote won't matter", or "how bad could it get if I don't vote", who are now going to be more motivated than ever to vote.

However, that said, I am not so sure of the Democratic victory that I would place money on it. Trump has a very stable approval rating. (Its under water and he is unable to make it increase, but it isn't dropping significantly either.) Plus, he will still benefit from things like the Electoral college, Russian interference, and voter suppression.
I also think that a lot of people who didn't like Trump didn't bother to vote because they weren't all that excited by Clinton, and had been convinced by polling predictions that she was pretty much the guaranteed winner.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:29 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by Foster Zygote View Post
I also think that a lot of people who didn't like Trump didn't bother to vote because they weren't all that excited by Clinton, and had been convinced by polling predictions that she was pretty much the guaranteed winner.
Another reason why Trump could very well lose this time around. The polls are unlikely to encourage that kind of casual attitude in 2020. I think voters who didn't want Trump but were confident their vote wouldn't matter in 2016 are going to be especially motivated in 2020.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:35 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Foster Zygote View Post
I also think that a lot of people who didn't like Trump didn't bother to vote because they weren't all that excited by Clinton, and had been convinced by polling predictions that she was pretty much the guaranteed winner.
I also think that people didn't bother to vote because they thought she would win easily.

Frankly, I think Hillary would look great against Trump today.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:37 AM   #27
Crazy Chainsaw
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I'd join in, but I have no idea.

On one hand, the economy hasn't collapsed which is usually good for the incumbent. If Trump operated like most politicians and tried to be the President of the entire nation as opposed to just the crazies in his own party, I think his reelection would be a given.

But on the other hand Trump won the last time by a thread. And while he has solidified his base, Trump has alienated almost everyone else. Even if they don't know it yet. By that, I mean he has openly threatened popular programs and has not as Prestige said, not delivered on many campaign promises.

Wait till his opposition is running hard against Trump and not each other. When ad after ad will be about Trump's lies and broken promises. But after 2016, I'm done prognosticating.
Give it time TVA just shut down Paradise number 3 plant in Kentucky and the mines that supplied the coal fired powerplant.
You can't keep a dinosaur alive forever, just cheaper to go natural gas!
Miners and Employees out of work, and their could have been transition programs fir them if it wasn't for the tax cuts.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:47 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
My predictions, which are not worth the paper you could print them on, let alone the overpriced ink:
1. Not-Trump will win the popular vote by a substantial margin.
2. Not-Trump will win the electoral vote by a much less substantial margin. Especially in a few key states, much like 2016.
3. Trump will be screaming about fraud even before election day.
4. Trump will file suits to overturn results the day after the election. If not actually before the vote.
5. It will wind up in SCOTUS and we'll see just what kind of American CJ Roberts actually is, because it'll be 4-4 otherwise.
6. Unless RBG has died and been replaced, in which case we're screwed.
I think it will go something like this. I'm not sure if he'll file suit or simply declare he's the real winner because of frauds and refuse to give up power. I'm also not sure if Republicans in the house and Senate will support him or use it as an opportunity to be rid of him.

I occasionally see mention that behind closed doors Republicans have expressed they don't like Trump and just support him out of fear of retaliation or being primaried.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:53 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by Crazy Chainsaw View Post
Give it time TVA just shut down Paradise number 3 plant in Kentucky and the mines that supplied the coal fired powerplant.
You can't keep a dinosaur alive forever, just cheaper to go natural gas!
Miners and Employees out of work, and their could have been transition programs fir them if it wasn't for the tax cuts.
I'm sure there will be quite a few miners and power-plant workers who will now vote against Trump. However, Trump got over 62% of the popular vote in Kentucky. I don't think the loss of those voters will be enough to turn the state Democratic.

However, there are probably similar jobs in other states that are more competitive, where Trump's promises didn't materialize, and workers may be less enthused about supporting him.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:54 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Whoever the Dems end up nominating, I think they'll probably win.
You should put your money where your mouth is - you can lay Trump at $1-30 at Betfair right now.

https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/...et/1.128151441
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:56 AM   #31
Segnosaur
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
I think it will go something like this. I'm not sure if he'll file suit or simply declare he's the real winner because of frauds and refuse to give up power. I'm also not sure if Republicans in the house and Senate will support him or use it as an opportunity to be rid of him.

I occasionally see mention that behind closed doors Republicans have expressed they don't like Trump and just support him out of fear of retaliation or being primaried.
They may also realize that demographics in the U.S. are shifting, and eventually the Republicans will have to appeal to more than just the angry white evangelicals/bigots. (There are limits about how much voter suppression and gerrymandering will work.)

The longer Trump is around, the longer it will take to start making inroads with those minority groups.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:57 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
You should put your money where your mouth is - you can lay Trump at $1-30 at Betfair right now.

https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/...et/1.128151441
What a weird thing to say. Why should I do that?
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Old 7th February 2020, 12:01 PM   #33
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He's got the highest approval ratings he's ever had, roughly on par with every other first term president that got re-elected.

The economy is some how doing great despite him.

If Bernie is the nominee, he won't win because folks aren't going to take a chance on an 80 year old scold who spent his honey moon in the Soviet Union.

If its Bernie I bet on Trump. If its Pete, Warren, or Biden, I won't bet.
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Old 7th February 2020, 12:07 PM   #34
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This is one giant bait thread from the OP
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Old 7th February 2020, 12:09 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
That's another thing I haven't factored in yet:

Whether the voters in the middle are aware of just how much the voters on the left hate them - just how much the voters on the left call them stupid, and racist, and nazis. And just how much the voters in the middle care.

I suppose it could be argued that if you tell them often enough that voting for a Nazi makes them a Nazi, they'll come around to your point of view. They'll vote the way you tell them to, so that you stop calling them Nazis. 2020 may be end up being a referendum on that argument.


Yeah, I really wonder if the libtards know.

It's funny to see just how much you ignore the other side of the same coin.
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Old 7th February 2020, 12:13 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
This is one giant bait thread from the OP
I mean, if you think you're biting down on giant bait, I'm not going to try to convince you otherwise. But for the rest of the audience: applecorped is wrong.
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Old 7th February 2020, 12:17 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
I'll be very interested to see how Trump handles a loss.

I don't think he'll have to be dragged out like some believe. How does a man almost completely lacking empathy and grace leave office?
Resigns before an inauguration that he will not attend. The inauguration crowd will be one of the "worst in history."
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Old 7th February 2020, 12:24 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
He's got the highest approval ratings he's ever had, roughly on par with every other first term president that got re-elected.

The economy is some how doing great despite him.

If Bernie is the nominee, he won't win because folks aren't going to take a chance on an 80 year old scold who spent his honey moon in the Soviet Union.

If its Bernie I bet on Trump. If its Pete, Warren, or Biden, I won't bet.
Hasn't Trump been to the Soviet Union a bunch of times, including having a hotel, businesses, and loans from there? One of his kids said a large amount of their money comes from Russia. Seems odd Bernie would get hassled for it. If he does, pretty easy to retort to.

Donald Trump and Bernie are only 5 years apart. It's not like Trump is some young buck. As far as the approval ratings, we'll see.

I don't see this as a very convincing argument though.
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Old 7th February 2020, 12:27 PM   #39
Crazy Chainsaw
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
I'm sure there will be quite a few miners and power-plant workers who will now vote against Trump. However, Trump got over 62% of the popular vote in Kentucky. I don't think the loss of those voters will be enough to turn the state Democratic.

However, there are probably similar jobs in other states that are more competitive, where Trump's promises didn't materialize, and workers may be less enthused about supporting him.
Do you think that someone from Kentucky showing Kentuckians how Courpt Trump and Mitch McConnell are with make a difference?

Last edited by Crazy Chainsaw; 7th February 2020 at 12:29 PM.
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Old 7th February 2020, 12:29 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Crazy Chainsaw View Post
Do you think that someone from Kentucky showing Kentians how Courpt Trump and Mitch McConnell are with make a difference?
Only if you don't call them Kentians, and can explain what "courpt" means.
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