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Old 7th February 2020, 12:30 PM   #41
Segnosaur
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
He's got the highest approval ratings he's ever had
Keep in mind that that 'highest approval rating' seems to be based on one poll. Yes, it was from Gallup (who are usually pretty accurate), but at this point we don't know if it was some sort of long-term trend or some outlier.

Other recent polls show his approval rating ~6 points below his disapproval rating.
Quote:
roughly on par with every other first term president that got re-elected.
According to Aggregate polling information, Trump's approval is trailing Obama by ~4% at this point in his first term. He is also trailing Bush Jr. by 7%, Bill clinton by ~4.5% and Regan by ~9%. He is even trailing Bush Sr, Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford. (Admittedly those last 2 had a few unexpected political issues.)

More importantly... even though those other president's approval ratings occasionally dipped, they also showed the ability to grow. Trump's approval rating seems to be stuck in a narrow band around 40-45%.
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Old 7th February 2020, 12:33 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Keep in mind that that 'highest approval rating' seems to be based on one poll. Yes, it was from Gallup (who are usually pretty accurate), but at this point we don't know if it was some sort of long-term trend or some outlier.

Other recent polls show his approval rating ~6 points below his disapproval rating.

According to Aggregate polling information, Trump's approval is trailing Obama by ~4% at this point in his first term. He is also trailing Bush Jr. by 7%, Bill clinton by ~4.5% and Regan by ~9%. He is even trailing Bush Sr, Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford. (Admittedly those last 2 had a few unexpected political issues.)

More importantly... even though those other president's approval ratings occasionally dipped, they also showed the ability to grow. Trump's approval rating seems to be stuck in a narrow band around 40-45%.
agreed, its sort of hard to believe he doesnt make a practice to padding the record.
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Old 7th February 2020, 12:38 PM   #43
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Old 7th February 2020, 12:43 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
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If Bernie is the nominee, he won't win because folks aren't going to take a chance on an 80 year old scold who spent his honey moon in the Soviet Union.
Hasn't Trump been to the Soviet Union a bunch of times, including having a hotel, businesses, and loans from there?
There are certainly a number of Trump/Russia connections.

I can see 2 problems though:

- The republicans can always claim "Sanders went when it was still communist" (unlike Trump, who has been dealing with a capitalist economy). Not sure how well it would fly, but I can see them doing something like that.

- It gives the republicans an easy "whataboutism" that they can capitalize. If one of the other democrats gets the nomination, they can hammer trump in the election as "Putin's lapdog". The fact that Sanders went to Moscow means that the democrats can't harp on Trump's russia connections too much without sounding a bit hypocritical.
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Donald Trump and Bernie are only 5 years apart. It's not like Trump is some young buck.
True, but you're talking about 5 years apart when both candidates are in their 70s. At that age, just a few years difference could make a big change.

Plus, Sanders had his little heart problem early on. Trump has manage to avoid any sort of similar problem being exposed to the public. (I'm not saying Trump is healthy; he's overweight and in poor shape. And he did have is little "surprise" physical. But the details have been kept under wraps.)

Remember, Hillary Clinton was younger than Trump, but remember all of the media hype when she had her little 'fainting spell'/fall. I'm sure the republicans will capitalize on Sanders earlier heart problems in the same way.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:15 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Whoever the Dems end up nominating, I think they'll probably win.

There's a lot of voters who are going to vote "R" because they always vote "R". There's a lot of voters who are going to vote Trump because they believe in him even though he's not very believable, and even though he's not done a good job of delivering on some of his more appealing campaign promises.

But very few of those people are in the middle, and none of them are on the left. So I think it comes down to the mood of the people in the middle - swing voters in swing states specifically - and whether it's changed much since 2016.

Swing voters aren't looking at Hillary this time around, which has got to affect their mood one way or another. And Trump has been an unremitting jackass throughout his first term. Tabula rasa, nominee Trump vs nominee Hillary, Trump barely wins in 2016. In 2020, those same voters are looking at a Trump who now has a track record as president, versus one of a handful of Democrats.

I figure, any one of those handful of Democrats will do better than Trump in the general campaign. Trump will have to rely on his strategy of populist rallies and rhetoric. This was good at capturing the core of the GOP in 2016. I doubt it's going to capture anyone in the middle in 2020. He didn't drain the swamp. He got impeached. He's obviously a jackass. Any one of the Democrats should be able to put together a more coherent, more plausible-sounding stump speech for the people in the middle.

Etc. I think the voters in the middle are going to be inclined to take a chance, even on Bernie if it comes to that, rather than put up with Trump for another four years.

Really, after Trump, what's the worst that could happen? Why not try something else?
I wouldn't put any money on it. Trump is favored at -150. Biden is at +800, Bernie at +450.


https://www.thelines.com/odds/election/
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:16 PM   #46
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Presidents who actually lost their reelection campaigns in the last 100 years:

Herbert Hoover
Jimmy Carter
George HW Bush

All of whom had significant economic downturns during their presidency. I omitted Gerald Ford because he was not elected in the first place, but he also had a soft economy dragging him down.

That said, Trump seems to be the guy who breaks all the molds. I certainly did not predict his rise to the presidency or even his nomination as the GOP standard-bearer.

I will also say that the vitriol directed at Trump from the Democrats is nothing new; in my lifetime almost every Republican president running for re-election has been vilified: Nixon yes, Reagan yes, GW Bush yes. About the only one who wasn't considered evil incarnate was Poppy Bush.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:24 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
I will also say that the vitriol directed at Trump from the Democrats is nothing new; in my lifetime almost every Republican president running for re-election has been vilified: Nixon yes, Reagan yes, GW Bush yes. About the only one who wasn't considered evil incarnate was Poppy Bush.
Must be convenient that you can use that as an excuse to remain blind to Trump's many very obvious faults that go way beyond any of the mentioned previous presidents.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:30 PM   #48
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I call 2020 for no one, because Trump will contest the results well into 2021.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:31 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Presidents who actually lost their reelection campaigns in the last 100 years:

Herbert Hoover
Jimmy Carter
George HW Bush

All of whom had significant economic downturns during their presidency. I omitted Gerald Ford because he was not elected in the first place, but he also had a soft economy dragging him down.

That said, Trump seems to be the guy who breaks all the molds. I certainly did not predict his rise to the presidency or even his nomination as the GOP standard-bearer.

I will also say that the vitriol directed at Trump from the Democrats is nothing new; in my lifetime almost every Republican president running for re-election has been vilified: Nixon yes, Reagan yes, GW Bush yes. About the only one who wasn't considered evil incarnate was Poppy Bush.
GOd, take the partisan blinders off.
Trump had done a LOT more to deserve to be vilified then the other GOP presidents.
And this is from somebody, who,although he did not vote for Romney, in 2012 was very outspoken in codeming some of the attacks made on him here.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:34 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Must be convenient that you can use that as an excuse to remain blind to Trump's many very obvious faults that go way beyond any of the mentioned previous presidents.
Right, right. Bush may have been Literally Hitler, but Trump is Hitler 3000, or Double Hitler, or Super Turbo Hitler Extreme, or something.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:38 PM   #51
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I don't need Trump to be head and shoulders worse than other Republican POTUS's. His policies I just straight up don't agree with his policies and he amplifies that by making every announcement like a boastful little bitch. His policies are bad, in my opinion, from immigration to now allowing our natural resources to be destroyed again. I don't care if he's better or worse than POTUS's in the past. He sucks, for several reasons.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:45 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Right, right. Bush may have been Literally Hitler, but Trump is Hitler 3000, or Double Hitler, or Super Turbo Hitler Extreme, or something.
Are you really surprised that Democrats would have never believed that there could be someone worse than Bush, at least domestically?
Bush only created failed states abroad, Trump keeps his focus on the US.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:45 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Right, right. Bush may have been Literally Hitler, but Trump is Hitler 3000, or Double Hitler, or Super Turbo Hitler Extreme, or something.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:48 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Are you really surprised that Democrats would have never believed that there could be someone worse than Bush, at least domestically?
Bush only created failed states abroad, Trump keeps his focus on the US.
I'm not at all surprised.

I'm a little surprised that after several cycles of vilifying every Republican candidate in the strongest terms, Democrats still expect their vilification to carry any weight, even among themselves.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:52 PM   #55
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I am surprised that Republicans are engaged in a race to the bottom when it comes to the integrity of their candidates.
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Old 7th February 2020, 01:52 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Right, right. Bush may have been Literally Hitler, but Trump is Hitler 3000, or Double Hitler, or Super Turbo Hitler Extreme, or something.
And Republicans were claiming Obama was literally the antichrist. Where were you then.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:00 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Only if you don't call them Kentians, and can explain what "courpt" means.
Corrupt sorry and it means the accused an American of not being an American because they were too enept to do a 5 second Google search even when provided with the link. That or as I said before they can't wrap their heads around the concept of Holes.
Partnering with a Racist, starting a Racist movement, then Ignoring the evidence to do it isn't going to look very well.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:01 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I'm not at all surprised.

I'm a little surprised that after several cycles of vilifying every Republican candidate in the strongest terms, Democrats still expect their vilification to carry any weight, even among themselves.
Can you understand the concept of a paper punch card with holes though it?
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:02 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I am surprised that Republicans are engaged in a race to the bottom when it comes to the integrity of their candidates.
A race to stupidity you mean many of their claims are easily demonstrated false!
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:12 PM   #60
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Bush was a truly terrible president. His policies where awful and he enabled dangerous developments in US political and social life. He was - however - not as bad as Trump. Trump is to Bush what Bush was to Obama.

I don't think it's that difficult to understand that liberals were outraged with Bush. That outrage, however, does not mean that today's outrage over Trump is worth less or means anything different than what is obvious: Trump is a truly horrible president. Easily the worst in modern times. He's so bad that he has single handedly made the US a joke around the world. Seriously. We are laughing at you.

I think people took all the wrong lessons from the old fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf". Here's a hint: The point wasn't that there was no wolf.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:16 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by Crazy Chainsaw View Post
Can you understand the concept of a paper punch card with holes though it?
I still have no idea what point you're trying to make with this.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:20 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
This is one giant bait thread from the OP
You think?
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:26 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I still have no idea what point you're trying to make with this.
Then that is exactly the point I stated a fact simple fact, they lied so apparently that I can demonstrate it on stage and five year olds Understand it.
A few free rock concerts demonstrate it live on stage and Trump will look like a moron.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:29 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post

I will also say that the vitriol directed at Trump from the Democrats is nothing new; in my lifetime almost every Republican president running for re-election has been vilified: Nixon yes, Reagan yes, GW Bush yes. About the only one who wasn't considered evil incarnate was Poppy Bush.
WRONG. Trump is an awful despicable human being. The hate for this man obliterates any distaste people felt toward previous Republican presidents. If you don't see that, you are blind.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:31 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I still have no idea what point you're trying to make with this.
Ok how about electric current though a hole in an insulator working a light bulb?
Or better yet using a hole in a punched card to set off a fireworks display.
It's all about making fun of Trump without making the mistake of making the voters think they are deplorable. Show them what your saying and let them Judge.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:32 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
He's got the highest approval ratings he's ever had, roughly on par with every other first term president that got re-elected.

The economy is some how doing great despite him.

If Bernie is the nominee, he won't win because folks aren't going to take a chance on an 80 year old scold who spent his honey moon in the Soviet Union.

If its Bernie I bet on Trump. If its Pete, Warren, or Biden, I won't bet.
I offer you a friendly bet.

If Bernie is the nominee and loses to Trump, I will stop posting at ISF for a year, 360 days to the date.

If Bernie wins you do the same.

Or is it too high stakes.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:35 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Presidents who actually lost their reelection campaigns in the last 100 years:

Herbert Hoover
Jimmy Carter
George HW Bush

All of whom had significant economic downturns during their presidency. I omitted Gerald Ford because he was not elected in the first place, but he also had a soft economy dragging him down.

That said, Trump seems to be the guy who breaks all the molds. I certainly did not predict his rise to the presidency or even his nomination as the GOP standard-bearer.

I will also say that the vitriol directed at Trump from the Democrats is nothing new; in my lifetime almost every Republican president running for re-election has been vilified: Nixon yes, Reagan yes, GW Bush yes. About the only one who wasn't considered evil incarnate was Poppy Bush.
The hate for Trump is well deserved and you should know that just as well as I, he is the Idiot Infowarior Birtherdent not a president at all he Scammed his way into the job.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:40 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
I offer you a friendly bet.

If Bernie is the nominee and loses to Trump, I will stop posting at ISF for a year, 360 days to the date.

If Bernie wins you do the same.

Or is it too high stakes.
Ok. I'll forget about it though, so you'll have to remind me.

I also just want to be clear, I don't want Trump to president for 4 more years, I just think he has a really good chance of doing so.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:42 PM   #69
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I sure hope the prestige is right this time but I'm not betting my life on it. Plenty of time for screwups, frauds, deaths, lies and skeletons in closets. I trust the Democrats to come up with a better candidate (could hardly be worse) but I don't trust them to do it right or effectively.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:44 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
For those who think Trump will lose: how do you think he'll take it? Graceful acceptance? Grumbling but compliant? Or fighting all out to overturn the results and retain the office, coming at you in a whirlwind of fists and elbows, you're screaming 'stop, stop' but all he hears is 'who wants cake?'
I'll mirror Bill Maher on this.

Close your eyes, and imagine Trump conceding defeat. Seriously just try.

Imagine him standing on a stage or in front of a TV Camera and actually going "It's been an honor to serve you, but the people have made their decision and it's time to move into a new age. I've called President Elect Buttisandebidawarren and congratulated him or her." The dude isn't over the election he won. He's a sore winner how is he going to handle losing?

Because I can't do it. And I don't mean even in a Trumpian way I can't imagine him doing it. Sure I can't imagine him actually doing it graciously or with humanity but beyond that I can't even imagine him going "Yeah? Yeah? Well I changed all the bathroom locks in the Whitehouse, replaced all the coffee with Decaf, and cancelled the cable package except for the Hallmark Channel, ESPN's 4-8, and that one shop at home network that is still somehow broadcasting in 4:3 Standard Definition even though it's 2020 and sells nothing but cheap jewelry and gas station pocket knives. Peace out losers!"

Now does this mean like full on Coup or that joke I made a few months back about this ending with a disheveled Trump standing on the top of burning White House in the glow of a police chopper spotlight, with a dozen SWAT team laser sights pointed at his head, with a pistol held to Greta Thurnburg's head screaming about a suitcase full of unmarked bills and a chopper with enough fuel to get him to a non-extradition treaty country? No. But without some kind of drama? No I can't imagine that.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:46 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by Crazy Chainsaw View Post
Ok how about electric current though a hole in an insulator working a light bulb?
Or better yet using a hole in a punched card to set off a fireworks display.
It's all about making fun of Trump without making the mistake of making the voters think they are deplorable. Show them what your saying and let them Judge.
That point doesn't seem relevant to this thread. Can you bring it home somehow?
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:47 PM   #72
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Presumably Bill Maher's writers can make an appeal to incredulity sound funny. At least to Bill Maher's audience.

Joe, what conclusions can we reasonably draw from your (and Bill's) inability to imagine things? It's not like either of you guys are legendary imagineers, known for having your fingers on the pulse of what will be and what will not be. So what's the significance?

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Old 7th February 2020, 02:48 PM   #73
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I am still calling it for Trump in 2020, he will increase his margin.

He won in 2016 despite being on the nose with many traditional Republicans, who swung in behind Trump very quickly after he won. And he still has his MAGA base.

But what will seal the deal is that the evangelicals, even though they are cooling on Trump, are still perched in the trees waiting for Ginsburg and they won't let that vacancy go to a Democrat.

Crunch the figures over his margins in the swing state and look at how many evangelicals there are in those states (add the conservative Catholics and Episcopalians) and the fact that Trumps voter database probably has most of their names, addresses and phone numbers.

He only has to convince about 0.01% more of people who wouldn't normally vote to get out and vote and he will win those states easily.

Now look at the low voter turnout in Iowa. Democrat voters are not enthused by any of the candidates and they will likely stay home in November.

Unless the Dem candidate can get some momentum and run a killer "get-out-and-vote" campaign I can't see any way for them to win.
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Old 7th February 2020, 02:58 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
You think? ; )
The good news is, you and applecorped are agreeing on something.

The bad news is, you're both wrong.
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Old 7th February 2020, 03:00 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by bruto View Post
I sure hope the prestige is right this time but I'm not betting my life on it. Plenty of time for screwups, frauds, deaths, lies and skeletons in closets. I trust the Democrats to come up with a better candidate (could hardly be worse) but I don't trust them to do it right or effectively.
Or do none of those things, but the conservative media echo chamber will simple tell people that the Democratic candidate has done all those things.
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Old 7th February 2020, 03:00 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by Robin View Post
I am still calling it for Trump in 2020, he will increase his margin.

He won in 2016 despite being on the nose with many traditional Republicans, who swung in behind Trump very quickly after he won. And he still has his MAGA base.

But what will seal the deal is that the evangelicals..
Not really sure why you think evangelicals will play more of a factor in 2020 than in 2016.

I'm sure in 2016 they were more than motivated enough to vote. I doubt there were any that were sitting out 2016 that are now willing to jump into the fray.

And, it should be noted that evangelicals are making up ever smaller portion of the electorate. Some are getting old/dying, others are leaving the church after finding many of their positions morally wrong. (The percentage of white evangelicals dropped from 17% to 15.3% between 2016 and 2016.) Even if Trump manages maintain (or even slightly increase) his evangelical vote share, the total number of votes from that demographic are likely to drop.

https://www.vox.com/2018/11/7/180706...rms-trump-2020
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Old 7th February 2020, 03:03 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by Crazy Chainsaw View Post
It's all about making fun of Trump without making the mistake of making the voters think they are deplorable. Show them what your saying and let them Judge.
When Clinton made the 'deplorable' mark is when I first started thinking that Trump will probably win. That remark shows her complete lack of political judgement.

She seemed to run the whole campaign as a sort of "isn't it great that we are going to have a woman President and every little girl will wake up the next day and know that she can do anything" rather than focus on the issues that were hurting middle America.

And I don't think many people understood how on the nose she was with Republican voters meaning that this was an extra incentive in the "get-out-and-vote" factor.

The one thing the Dems have in their favour this year is that they don't have Hillary.
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Old 7th February 2020, 03:11 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Not really sure why you think evangelicals will play more of a factor in 2020 than in 2016.
He doesn't need more, he just needs about as many.

In 2016 he was on the nose with many traditional Republicans who quickly swung behind him after he won, so he has them now.

And there is the low voter turnout at Iowa. This may change later, but it is an early indicator of a lack of enthusiasm among Democrat voters.

He probably has a bigger war chest this time and the incumbency advantage.

He has the perception of economic improvement in the USA.

He only has to convince a tiny percentage of the voters in the swing states and he will romp home.

What narrative do the Democrat candidates have in those states?
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Old 7th February 2020, 03:13 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by Robin View Post
When Clinton made the 'deplorable' mark is when I first started thinking that Trump will probably win. That remark shows her complete lack of political judgement.
As opposed to all of Trump's verbal blunders during the campaign, which were ....what? Astute political judgement?
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Old 7th February 2020, 03:19 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
As opposed to all of Trump's verbal blunders during the campaign, which were ....what? Astute political judgement?
Yes because Trump was running on a campaign of being an ass who's job it was to punish "the others" Hillary wasn't.
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