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Old 12th June 2019, 08:49 PM   #761
Reality Check
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Thumbs down A delusion that how committees work (ACIP) need scientific studies

Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
I'm using Plotkin mostly to verify certain details that there are no studies for.
13 June 2019 Itchy Boy: A delusion that how committees work (ACIP) need scientific studies.
The rules for committees have been formalized for centuries. They may differ between countries and institutions but they include that working groups tend not to be public for practical reasons. There may be groups working on subjects that need public input and they are public. A subgroup of the ACIP committee evaluating scientific research is not in need of public input.

Plotkin stated his own knowledge of the commonsense fact that ACIP working groups are not public. That does not need a scientific study.

Last edited by Reality Check; 12th June 2019 at 08:52 PM.
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Old 12th June 2019, 08:54 PM   #762
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Yeah, obviously


Let’s play “numbers”, shall we?

The population - general and well educated - is growing. So, cet. par., more and more will fall for it.

Let’s play history, shall we?

It’s only an apparent trend; we have more reliable data today than in the past.

And so on ...
Let’s talk about IB’s fave, YourBackTube, owned by Poopgle.

Many good primary sources show that top$ spent on the best AI is very effective at bubbling you, creating echo chambers, serving up fake news, and radicalizing you. Even better, the best AI algorithms are particularly effective with mostly white, well educated parents. Fakebook and We-are-Twits are also good at this (as is TikTok in India, look no further than the uptick in lynchings).

And it works! Just ask the IRA (well, you can ask, but they will deny everything).
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Old 12th June 2019, 08:59 PM   #763
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
If, as the FDA ...
Obsessing with the FDA and unsupported, irrelevant allegations does not mean that any scientific studies or findings or conclusions are being suppressed in the real world. That happens in the paranoiac and abysmally ignorant antivaxer world.

The FDA is not the be all and end all of vaccine approval or safety .
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Old 12th June 2019, 09:13 PM   #764
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
The people in this thread are obviously 'better educated', if not affluent as well. The people here have not 'fallen victim to misinformation'.

So I wonder what the difference is? Why are more and more well educated people out there falling for vaccine 'misinformation'?
The people in this thread don't "tend to use complementary and alternative medicine like chiropractors and naturopaths" either. This is a sceptics forum populated mostly by people who have been taught, or have taught themselves, basic critical thinking skills.

The question of why educated people fall for obvious ******** like homeopathy, astrology and anti-vax propaganda is one that is often debated here, you'll find plenty of threads on the subject if you're really interested.
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Old 12th June 2019, 09:30 PM   #765
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The people in this thread don't "tend to use complementary and alternative medicine like chiropractors and naturopaths" either. This is a sceptics forum populated mostly by people who have been taught, or have taught themselves, basic critical thinking skills.

The question of why educated people fall for obvious ******** like homeopathy, astrology and anti-vax propaganda is one that is often debated here, you'll find plenty of threads on the subject if you're really interested.
What kind of 'critical thinking skills' were involved when, in the other thread, you presented me with a graph which you claimed showed a comparison between the vaccinated and unvaccinated?

You posted a graph which was about life expectancy, not about vaccines, and which extended to the year 2050. Is that the kind of critical thinking we should all be taught?
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Old 12th June 2019, 09:35 PM   #766
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
The people in this thread are obviously 'better educated', if not affluent as well.
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Old 12th June 2019, 10:03 PM   #767
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
What kind of 'critical thinking skills' were involved when, in the other thread, you presented me with a graph which you claimed showed a comparison between the vaccinated and unvaccinated?

You posted a graph which was about life expectancy, not about vaccines, and which extended to the year 2050. Is that the kind of critical thinking we should all be taught?
Do you really still not understand the relevance of that graph? Or are you just pretending not to understand?
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Old 12th June 2019, 10:23 PM   #768
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Do you really still not understand the relevance of that graph? Or are you just pretending not to understand?
Maybe I'd understand if you pointed out which line represented the unvaccinated and which line represented the vaccinated. And what the other lines represented.

It would also help to know how the vaccinated were compared to the unvaccinated in 2045.
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Old 12th June 2019, 10:28 PM   #769
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The graph shows the correlation between increasing availability/takeup of vaccines and increasing life expectancy. Yes, correlation is not causation, but its relevance is obvious to anyone who is not being wilfully obtuse.
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Old 12th June 2019, 11:20 PM   #770
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The graph shows the correlation between increasing availability/takeup of vaccines and increasing life expectancy. Yes, correlation is not causation, but its relevance is obvious to anyone who is not being wilfully obtuse.
The graph doesn't say a word about vaccines or any correlation. It's just a graph of life expectancy. It doesn't say why it's increasing, and it can only guess what life expectancy might be in 2050.

There have been reports that children today will have shorter lives than their parents. Others say they will live longer, but their later years will be marred by poor health.

But it brings up an interesting question.

The CDC now recommends over 70 vaccine doses in 40 injections by age 18. As more vaccines get added to the schedule, what's your threshold?

At what number would you begin to question the schedule or say, "that's enough"? 80 doses? 100? 150 doses by age 18? What's your threshold?
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Last edited by Itchy Boy; 12th June 2019 at 11:30 PM. Reason: clarity
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Old 12th June 2019, 11:44 PM   #771
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There is no evidence that the current vaccine schedule is in any way harmful to children.
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Old 12th June 2019, 11:55 PM   #772
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
There is no evidence that the current vaccine schedule is in any way harmful to children.
I'm not saying that. The question is not about harm.

The question is, as more vaccines are added to the schedule, is there a point where you would begin to question the number of vaccines/doses?

Is there a point when you'd say "that's enough - no more"?
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Old 12th June 2019, 11:58 PM   #773
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
I'm not saying that. The question is not about harm.

The question is, as more vaccines are added to the schedule, is there a point where you would begin to question the number of vaccines/doses?

Is there a point when you'd say "that's enough - no more"?
Probably, but if there is, we haven't reached it. Also, it's a really big assumption that vaccines are going to be continually added and added and added to numbers that are quite frankly a severe exaggeration. How many vaccines do you think exist, anyway?
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Old 13th June 2019, 12:37 AM   #774
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Probably, but if there is, we haven't reached it. Also, it's a really big assumption that vaccines are going to be continually added and added and added to numbers that are quite frankly a severe exaggeration. How many vaccines do you think exist, anyway?
In the 1960's, children only received 3 or 4 vaccines.
CDC current schedule recommends 15 vaccines, administered in 40 injections and totalling over 70 doses. How many vaccines and doses will be added over the next 50 years? Who knows? Maybe about the same number as were added over the last 50 years?

I'm just asking what people's threshold would be, or if they'd just go along with whatever the CDC recommends.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedul....html#birth-15

Hep B - 3
Rotavirus- 2
DTaP - (< 7yrs) 5 shots x 3 vaccines =15 doses
Hib - 4
PCV13 - 4
IPV - 4
IIV - annual 1 or 2 - 18 - 36
MMR - 2 shots x 3 vaccines = 6 doses
VAR - 2
HepA - 2
MenA - 2
Tdap > 7yrs - 1 x 3 = 3 doses
HPV - 2 - 3
MenB - 2 - 3
PPSV23 - 4

73 doses in 40 shots
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Old 13th June 2019, 12:45 AM   #775
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As more infectious diseases are eradicated by the use of vaccines the number of shots needed should surely start to go down. No-one needs smallpox shots any more, for example. In the meantime I will happily accept every vaccine going. I'm enjoying my retirement, and I'd like as many healthy years of it as possible.
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Old 13th June 2019, 12:56 AM   #776
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
In the 1960's, children only received 3 or 4 vaccines.
CDC current schedule recommends 15 vaccines, administered in 40 injections and totalling over 70 doses. How many vaccines and doses will be added over the next 50 years? Who knows? Maybe about the same number as were added over the last 50 years?
Extrapolating a linear increase is WAY unjustified. And you complain about predicting life expectancy in 2050. How can you predict vaccine numbers over the same period? It's hypocritical.
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Old 13th June 2019, 04:55 AM   #777
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
As more infectious diseases are eradicated by the use of vaccines the number of shots needed should surely start to go down. No-one needs smallpox shots any more, for example. In the meantime I will happily accept every vaccine going. I'm enjoying my retirement, and I'd like as many healthy years of it as possible.

Can you imagine the reaction we’d see from people like Itchy Boy if ‘Big Pharma’ was spreading hostile propaganda against a simple and cheap way of preventing diseases?
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Old 13th June 2019, 06:00 AM   #778
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Thanks for this, most informative.

Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
In the 1960's, children only received 3 or 4 vaccines.
Source?

What vaccines? How many shots?

Quote:
CDC current schedule recommends 15 vaccines, administered in 40 injections and totalling over 70 doses.
Indeed.

But did you read all the indications and contraindications?

The list includes polio; to Pixel42’s point, that will - hopefully soon - go the way of smallpox vaccinations.

And unless I somehow missed them, neither rabies nor Ebola are there. Nor is BCG. Nor shingles, another that is likely on Pixel42’s list (but more for the next gen, I guess).

Quote:
How many vaccines and doses will be added over the next 50 years? Who knows? Maybe about the same number as were added over the last 50 years?
Good question!

Surely we hope there is no need to ever add BCG or a better TB vaccine, but if it is ever recommended, I’ll certainly take it (unless contraindicated for me).

OTOH, a really good future malaria vaccine will very likely be recommended; AGW and all that.

If you count at least some of the recently developed cancer immunotherapy treatments as vaccines, then I for one fervently hope they get recommended. You may think the size of the population for which such could perhaps never be large ... but as ~1 in 2 or 3 people alive today in the US will be diagnosed with cancer, some time in their lives, if they already haven’t been, who knows, in 50 years time ... ?

Quote:
I'm just asking what people's threshold would be, or if they'd just go along with whatever the CDC recommends.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedul....html#birth-15

Hep B - 3
Rotavirus- 2
DTaP - (< 7yrs) 5 shots x 3 vaccines =15 doses
Hib - 4
PCV13 - 4
IPV - 4
IIV - annual 1 or 2 - 18 - 36
MMR - 2 shots x 3 vaccines = 6 doses
VAR - 2
HepA - 2
MenA - 2
Tdap > 7yrs - 1 x 3 = 3 doses
HPV - 2 - 3
MenB - 2 - 3
PPSV23 - 4

73 doses in 40 shots
Well, based on what I now know, I really, really wish some of those had been available when I was in the recommended age ranges!

And I’ve already commented on HPV ... is there anyone close to you, IB, who has, or has had, cervical cancer? Someone whose cervical cancer became metastatic? Sure, not all such cancers are caused by HPV (and there are other, rarer, cancers for which HPV is a cause); would you rail against HPV vaccinations?
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Old 13th June 2019, 06:38 AM   #779
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
I'm just asking what people's threshold would be, or if they'd just go along with whatever the CDC recommends.

Why should there be a predetermined numeric threshold? And what's wrong with the CDC recommendation? They are certainly more trustworthy than you are.
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Old 13th June 2019, 06:38 AM   #780
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In IB’s list, “flu” is interesting.

It is, of course, not a single virus, the way smallpox is (or rather, was; praise the CDC et al.).

Historically flu was, in some strains/years ferociously deadly. And today it still causes a great many deaths every year. Despite the vaccine(s).

Over the next 50 years, we can reasonably expect that flu vaccines will get better, in any ways; the most welcome way would surely be to provide greater immunity. However, that may come at the cost of needing more shots.

Might flu become the next measles, the vaccine anti-vaxxers wail and gnash their teeth over?
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Old 13th June 2019, 06:48 AM   #781
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We currently eat about three meals a day. How many meals a day are too many? If you can't answer that question precisely, you must admit that eating is potentially hazardous, and question whether we should do it at all.
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Old 13th June 2019, 06:52 AM   #782
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Originally Posted by bruto View Post
We currently eat about three meals a day. How many meals a day are too many? If you can't answer that question precisely, you must admit that eating is potentially hazardous, and question whether we should do it at all.
And don't get me started about paychecks.
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Old 13th June 2019, 08:24 AM   #783
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
The people in this thread are obviously 'better educated', if not affluent as well.
Not all of us!


Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
The people here have not 'fallen victim to misinformation'.
Physician, heal thyself.
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Old 13th June 2019, 08:41 AM   #784
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
The people in this thread are obviously 'better educated', if not affluent as well. The people here have not 'fallen victim to misinformation'.

So I wonder what the difference is? Why are more and more well educated people out there falling for vaccine 'misinformation'?
Sample size error, sample error over generalization of your part
Lacking a coherent argument you now are desperately trying anything
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Old 13th June 2019, 08:44 AM   #785
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
In the 1960's, children only received 3 or 4 vaccines.
CDC current schedule recommends 15 vaccines, administered in 40 injections and totalling over 70 doses. How many vaccines and doses will be added over the next 50 years? Who knows? Maybe about the same number as were added over the last 50 years?

I'm just asking what people's threshold would be, or if they'd just go along with whatever the CDC recommends.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedul....html#birth-15

Hep B - 3
Rotavirus- 2
DTaP - (< 7yrs) 5 shots x 3 vaccines =15 doses
Hib - 4
PCV13 - 4
IPV - 4
IIV - annual 1 or 2 - 18 - 36
MMR - 2 shots x 3 vaccines = 6 doses
VAR - 2
HepA - 2
MenA - 2
Tdap > 7yrs - 1 x 3 = 3 doses
HPV - 2 - 3
MenB - 2 - 3
PPSV23 - 4

73 doses in 40 shots
Speculation about the future is no substitute for a rational coherent argument
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Old 13th June 2019, 09:22 AM   #786
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
Another allegation with no supporting evidence. I've lost count of how many such posts have been made.
Stop projecting.
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Old 13th June 2019, 09:52 AM   #787
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Extrapolating a linear increase is WAY unjustified. And you complain about predicting life expectancy in 2050. How can you predict vaccine numbers over the same period? It's hypocritical.
Clearly, it was a guess, not a prediction. The only prediction I would make is that the number will rise. So, what's your threshold?
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Old 13th June 2019, 10:14 AM   #788
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
Clearly, it was a guess, not a prediction. The only prediction I would make is that the number will rise. So, what's your threshold?
None.
The ability of the immune system to create antibody variation is far larger than the number of infectious diseases that would actually need a vaccine and the carrier/preservation chemicals leave the body within hours and are harmless in the quantities used.
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Old 13th June 2019, 10:28 AM   #789
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
Clearly, it was a guess, not a prediction. The only prediction I would make is that the number will rise. So, what's your threshold?
But is that the only reasonable prediction forever?

If universal vaccination were practiced, perhaps some diseases could be considered extinct, and routine vaccination for them would cease.

It seems to be the fashion in this thread to use examples of processes working as evidence that they don't work, and to speculate on that basis (but of course perish the very thought that conspiracy is alleged). Maybe we should reverse the trend by remembering that our kids no longer need smallpox vaccinations.
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Old 13th June 2019, 10:56 AM   #790
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
In the 1960's, children only received 3 or 4 vaccines.
CDC current schedule recommends 15 vaccines, administered in 40 injections and totalling over 70 doses. How many vaccines and doses will be added over the next 50 years? Who knows? Maybe about the same number as were added over the last 50 years?

I'm just asking what people's threshold would be, or if they'd just go along with whatever the CDC recommends.
...

On what basis? Just present a peer reviewed article by a qualified medical researcher that the present American/Canadian pediatric schedulse can cause anything other than children not experiencing many nasty infections. Again, no videos, no news reports nor any idle speculation.


Since I have had to deal with rotavirus and its rivers of poo, plus later take care of three kids with chicken pox where the youngest was six months old --- I would have preferred that those had been added to the schedule years earlier.
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Old 13th June 2019, 10:57 AM   #791
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
None.
The ability of the immune system to create antibody variation is far larger than the number of infectious diseases that would actually need a vaccine and the carrier/preservation chemicals leave the body within hours and are harmless in the quantities used.
None? So you'd accept any number of vaccines?

Regarding the rest of your post, do you have a source? I'd like to learn more.
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Old 13th June 2019, 11:01 AM   #792
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
The people in this thread are obviously 'better educated', if not affluent as well. The people here have not 'fallen victim to misinformation'.

So I wonder what the difference is? Why are more and more well educated people out there falling for vaccine 'misinformation'?
Originally Posted by Dancing David View Post
Sample size error, sample error over generalization of your part

And also partly the Dunning-Kruger effect, or something like it: the vast majority of people who are ‘well educated’ will not be well-educated in disciplines, such as epidemiology, medicine or statistics, that would qualify them to assess the case properly and identify misinformation, but will still think that, because they are ‘well-educated’, they won’t be taken in by misinformation.
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Old 13th June 2019, 11:05 AM   #793
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
None? So you'd accept any number of vaccines?

.

Why not?

You are the one complaining, so tell us, what should the limit of vaccines be, and, more importantly, how did you arrive at the answer?

Just be aware, "It sounds like a lot" is not an actual reason.
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Old 13th June 2019, 11:11 AM   #794
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
None? So you'd accept any number of vaccines?

Regarding the rest of your post, do you have a source? I'd like to learn more.
Yes.

And sure, start with reading up on these three.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Biochemistr.../dp/B010WF332E

https://www.amazon.com/Molecular-Bio.../dp/0815341059

https://www.elsevier.com/books/cellu...-0-323-47978-3

Read them in order, then let us know how far you've gotten.
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Old 13th June 2019, 11:11 AM   #795
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
I'm not saying that. The question is not about harm.
The answer is: Which is worse, the vaccine or the disease it helps prevent?


Quote:
The question is, as more vaccines are added to the schedule, is there a point where you would begin to question the number of vaccines/doses?
No. There are new vaccines that prevent a host of awful illnesses that can cripple or kill. Why wouldn't I want my children's futures to be safe as possible?

I'm getting 4 vaccines this year for this very reason.

Quote:
Is there a point when you'd say "that's enough - no more"?
No, not when the health of my children is in the balance. Never.
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Old 13th June 2019, 11:28 AM   #796
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Do you really still not understand the relevance of that graph? Or are you just pretending not to understand?
Is this the post with the graph in question?

Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Here's a comparison of the vaccinated with the completely unvaccinated:
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...8&d=1558764551
It's on p9 of the Measles outbreak WA/OR thread.
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Old 13th June 2019, 11:32 AM   #797
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
Yes.

And sure, start with reading up on these three.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Biochemistr.../dp/B010WF332E

https://www.amazon.com/Molecular-Bio.../dp/0815341059

https://www.elsevier.com/books/cellu...-0-323-47978-3

Read them in order, then let us know how far you've gotten.
Funny! Do you have an easily accessible source? I'm guessing not, but thanks anyway.
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Old 13th June 2019, 11:46 AM   #798
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
The graph doesn't say a word about vaccines or any correlation. It's just a graph of life expectancy. It doesn't say why it's increasing, and it can only guess what life expectancy might be in 2050.

There have been reports that children today will have shorter lives than their parents. Others say they will live longer, but their later years will be marred by poor health.
Quote:

Source?
But it brings up an interesting question.

The CDC now recommends over 70 vaccine doses in 40 injections by age 18. As more vaccines get added to the schedule, what's your threshold?

At what number would you begin to question the schedule or say, "that's enough"? 80 doses? 100? 150 doses by age 18? What's your threshold?
Dude, there is just one line relevant to this (you know which one, right?)

China is the world's largest country, by population. What agency/agencies approve, regulate, etc vaccines in China? What is the equivalent of a CDC list of recommended vaccines, for kids under ~five? 5 to 15 years of age?

India is the world's second largest country, by population. What agency/agencies approve, regulate, etc vaccines in India? What is the equivalent of a CDC list of recommended vaccines, for kids under ~five? 5 to 15 years of age?

Nigeria will, likely, be the world's third largest country, by population some time in the next 50 years. What agency/agencies approve, regulate, etc vaccines in Nigeria? What is the equivalent of a CDC list of recommended vaccines, for kids under ~five? 5 to 15 years of age?

What are the leading causes of death in each of these three countries? Of childhood deaths? What trends are there in such, over the past 50 years, say?

What do the answers to these questions tell you, about vaccinations? About future recommended vaccinations in those three countries? In the world?
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Old 13th June 2019, 11:48 AM   #799
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Originally Posted by Itchy Boy View Post
Funny! Do you have an easily accessible source? I'm guessing not, but thanks anyway.
No. As understanding how the immune system works requires actual work.

Shocking I know.
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Old 13th June 2019, 11:48 AM   #800
Itchy Boy
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
Why not?

You are the one complaining, so tell us, what should the limit of vaccines be, and, more importantly, how did you arrive at the answer?

Just be aware, "It sounds like a lot" is not an actual reason.
I'm not suggesting any limit and don't have an 'answer'.

I'm asking whether people think there's such a thing as 'too many vaccines', assuming, hypothetically, that the number of recommended vaccines keeps growing.

ETA: Several have already replied they would accept any number of recommended vaccines without question.
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Last edited by Itchy Boy; 13th June 2019 at 11:52 AM.
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