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Tags abortion laws , political predictions , prediction threads , Roe v. Wade

View Poll Results: When will Roe v Wade be overturned
Before 31 December 2020 17 32.08%
Before 31 December 2022 2 3.77%
Before 31 December 2024 1 1.89%
SCOTUS will not pick a case up 8 15.09%
SCOTUS will pick it up and decline to overturn 25 47.17%
Voters: 53. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 16th May 2019, 06:52 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
We are sorry for all the misery women will have to endure, from not killing their babies.

I'm just wowed by the media's ability to change thinking on this topic.

40 years ago, not killing babies would be the mainstream logic. And abortions on demand would be the crazy kook logic.


Today: It seems as though those who are for not killing babies, are the kooks.

How did that happen?
Assuming you meant to convey "abortions" when you said "killing babies" and "at the mother's request during the first trimester" when you said "on demand" could you provide evidence for the highlighted?
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Old 16th May 2019, 06:58 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
We are sorry for all the misery women will have to endure, from not killing their babies.
What babies?
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Old 16th May 2019, 07:16 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by smartcooky View Post
A couple of questions

Is there any law preventing a pregnant woman from travelling out of state or to Canada to get an abortion?

What is there to prevent a private hospital or abortion clinic in a state where abortion is legal from advertising for clients from states where abortion is illegal? They could do so via the internet.

NOTE: the domain http://pregnancytermination.com/ is available for purchase
No. And in the US, such a law would probably be unconditional.
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Old 16th May 2019, 07:23 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
Not the UK then, see Northern Ireland.
Exactly. Those parts of the UK which aren't in part run by a party which would like to see a protestant theocracy installed, the DUP, have access to abortion. The part that is in part run by the protestant Taliban, does.
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Old 16th May 2019, 07:28 AM   #85
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I voted 2022.

However, I'm wondering...what are the chances the SCOTUS will do something entirely unexpected?

Could they rule something like: "Life begins with the first unaided breath" and completely nullify almost all the restrictions states have put in place?
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Old 16th May 2019, 07:50 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by DragonLady View Post
I voted 2022.

However, I'm wondering...what are the chances the SCOTUS will do something entirely unexpected?

Could they rule something like: "Life begins with the first unaided breath" and completely nullify almost all the restrictions states have put in place?
In the case of the Georgia law, if the US Supreme Court deferred to Georgia's interpretation or accepted that Georgia can interpret the issue in its own way (even if other states do not), you already would have a situation similar to what you suggest given that the Georgia law declares the embryo to be a legal person (although starting at 6 weeks, rather than at conception). I have no idea if the SCOTUS can do either of those things.

I would think that if you posit a second person to be in existence during most of a pregnancy, the Roe v. Wade argument becomes considerably weakened. If you are affording the embryo/fetus personhood it will have rights which I would think would supersede the mother's right to privacy upon which Roe v. Wade is based. However, IANAL so I don't know if what I am writing is nonsense.
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Old 16th May 2019, 07:56 AM   #87
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Quote:
I would think that if you posit a second person to be in existence during most of a pregnancy, the Roe v. Wade argument becomes considerably weakened.
Well...a fetus doesn't breathe. The first breath is usually taken at birth, unless something has gone horribly wrong.

Mind you, I'm not suggesting SCOTUS should do such a thing, just wondering if they can.
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Old 16th May 2019, 08:31 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by DragonLady View Post
Well...a fetus doesn't breathe. The first breath is usually taken at birth, unless something has gone horribly wrong.

Mind you, I'm not suggesting SCOTUS should do such a thing, just wondering if they can.
Brain malfunctioned and I did not read that correctly and instead replied to my concern.
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Old 16th May 2019, 09:55 AM   #89
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Considering the number of miscarriages, I would say that God is the Grand Abortioner
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Old 16th May 2019, 09:57 AM   #90
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No worries global warming is going to kill everybody in the next 12 Years anyway
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Old 16th May 2019, 10:15 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
Not immediately, that will be hours later when they pass federal anti abortion laws, like how texas redistricted immediately after they removed the voting rights act.
Immediately in Alabama, Missouri, and any place else with anti-abortion laws on the books and DAs ready to enforce them.
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Old 16th May 2019, 12:10 PM   #92
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Can any of you be specific about which bit? Cos I just can't see it at all.
The entire OP is the usual histrionics+ hyperbole, self-righteousness and conspiracy theories pertaining to the US by a non-American.
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Old 16th May 2019, 01:21 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by sadhatter View Post
Now not products of the United states, because that would mean not enjoying most media and a hell of a lot of products and that would require actual sacrifice.
Utter nonsense.

NZ trade with USA is a whopping 2% of our GDP, and aside from weapons I don't use, and cars I wouldn't touch with a barge-pole, I'd be hard pressed to think of anything sourced from USA sold in NZ.

Losing 12-tonne SUVs with V8 engines would be a tragedy for some, but I'd welcome it. As to media, all mine comes from independent sources rather than US, which I tend to avoid like the plague.

Sacrifice level = 0

Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
And abortions on demand would be the crazy kook logic...

How did that happen?
I think we gave chicks the vote or something.

Originally Posted by DragonLady View Post
I voted 2022.

However, I'm wondering...what are the chances the SCOTUS will do something entirely unexpected?

Could they rule something like: "Life begins with the first unaided breath" and completely nullify almost all the restrictions states have put in place?
No.

Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
No worries global warming is going to kill everybody in the next 12 Years anyway
My word, she really has got under your skin, hasn't she? What a superb effort from someone so young to be hated by so many people on the right. She's going to go far.

Seriously, making stupid allegations of what someone meant when they said what they actually meant very clearly, in a completely unrelated topic shows how much she's getting to you.

I'll certainly put her on my Xmas card list. Top woman.
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Old 16th May 2019, 03:20 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Alternative argument...

Regardless of your position on abortion, Roe is a bad decision and should be overturned
That is a statement rather than an argument.

Would you like to expand and give your reasoning?
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Old 16th May 2019, 03:30 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
The entire OP is the usual histrionics+ hyperbole, self-righteousness and conspiracy theories pertaining to the US by a non-American.
Can you elucidate? Which thing that people are saying is wrong?

Did Alabama not just pass the most restrictive abortion law in the country? Is it not the case that part of the intent of this law was the challenge the Roe vs Wade decision?

If this law is allowed to stand and is found to be enforceable will that not effectively be an overturning of Roe vs Wade?

Does the United States not have a Supreme Court where the majority opinion is against the free access to abortion?
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Old 16th May 2019, 05:40 PM   #96
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Pretty even split on the votes so far.

I wonder if Paddy Power's offering odds on it?
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Old 16th May 2019, 05:51 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by sadhatter View Post
Because it's hip to hate the United States.
Or it could be that at this point in time the U.S. is the laughing stock of the Western World for good reason.
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Old 16th May 2019, 06:45 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by Robin View Post
That is a statement rather than an argument.

Would you like to expand and give your reasoning?
One of the reasons: The trimester framework implemented by the court has no basis in the Constitution. In the same decision that they say they have no place to determine when a fetus becomes a person, they then do that by outlining both a right to privacy based on hardship (nonsense) and a compelling state interest to a fetus but only for three months.

Development is a continuous process. What basis do they have to tie their decision to the trimester system?
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Old 16th May 2019, 07:13 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by Robin View Post
Can you elucidate? Which thing that people are saying is wrong?
Sure. OP mentioned the Trump abortion conspiracy theory. He also mentioned the "white men" canard (OP definitely isn't racist though) when the only sure vote to overturn Roe v Wade is a black man, and the Latina is the wild card.

Originally Posted by Robin View Post
Did Alabama not just pass the most restrictive abortion law in the country? Is it not the case that part of the intent of this law was the challenge the Roe vs Wade decision?
Yes, but even if it does go into effect, it's not likely to be enforced. And Roe v Wade is not likely to be overturned. This comes from my American knowledge of the Supreme Court Justices, not bugman digital media outlets.

Originally Posted by Robin View Post
If this law is allowed to stand and is found to be enforceable will that not effectively be an overturning of Roe vs Wade?
This legislation appears to be a flex on Federal Supremacy, not "an attack on women's rights." This is how many non-bugman Americans interpret this legislation. So we find the histrionics of OP and that Canadian guy to be pathetic.
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Old 16th May 2019, 07:16 PM   #100
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Originally Posted by qayak View Post
Or it could be that at this point in time the U.S. is the laughing stock of the Western World for good reason.
Been hearing this for decades. Meanwhile Justin Trudeau is prancing around mosques in rainbow socks.
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Old 16th May 2019, 08:20 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by isissxn View Post
Well come to think of it, TA always has a sort of boisterous style, so I'll acknowledge I may have misunderstood the OP's tone. I'm very sour where this topic is concerned. I can't stand my ******* country right now.
A lot of up think it is full of crap now and needs a big squirt of water for a flushing out of our current systemnal parts.
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Old 16th May 2019, 10:36 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
Many "international" members do. And it's all based on ignorance, bigotry, and gullibility.
No. It's based on looking at the available facts, and reaching the objectively correct conclusion that the USA is a backwards ******** country.
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Old 16th May 2019, 11:14 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by Lambchops View Post
No. It's based on looking at the available facts, and reaching the objectively correct conclusion that the USA is a backwards ******** country.
Bugman logic
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Old 17th May 2019, 06:54 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
I'm just wowed by the media's ability to change thinking on this topic.

40 years ago, not killing babies would be the mainstream logic. And abortions on demand would be the crazy kook logic.

Today: It seems as though those who are for not killing babies, are the kooks.

How did that happen?
Because your memory is selective, I guess. In the US, before Roe v Wade it was mostly only a core issue among Catholics. It wasn’t until maybe the 80s that Republicans picked it up as a handy political saw to lure Catholic voters to the party (and IMO to have a clear cut plank to distract people from having the impression that they were pretty racist).

Historically, the population in general has always been split on the issue when they sit down to really think about it. For everyone but the Catholics, it was a pretty common attitude to feel that anything that happened before ‘quickening’ was nobody’s business.
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Old 17th May 2019, 07:40 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
Yes, but even if it does go into effect, it's not likely to be enforced.
What are you basing that on?
Quote:
And Roe v Wade is not likely to be overturned.
As I said, if it turns out to be enforceable then Roe v Wade is effectively overturned, which brings us back to the question of whether it can be enforced
Quote:
This comes from my American knowledge of the Supreme Court Justices, not bugman digital media outlets.
I have no idea who "bugman digital media outlets" refers to.
Quote:
This legislation appears to be a flex on Federal Supremacy, not "an attack on women's rights."
It is not a dichotomy, it can be both. But I am puzzled as how it can be interpreted as anything else than an attack on women's rights.
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Old 17th May 2019, 11:52 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by Robin View Post
What are you basing that on?

As I said, if it turns out to be enforceable then Roe v Wade is effectively overturned, which brings us back to the question of whether it can be enforced

I have no idea who "bugman digital media outlets" refers to.

It is not a dichotomy, it can be both. But I am puzzled as how it can be interpreted as anything else than an attack on women's rights.
It is and it's suppoorters are slime (and really far worse).
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Old 17th May 2019, 11:54 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by Lambchops View Post
No. It's based on looking at the available facts, and reaching the objectively correct conclusion that the USA is a backwards ******** country.
More the religious nut places: South and Flyover
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Old 17th May 2019, 11:55 AM   #108
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Originally Posted by fuelair View Post
A lot of up think it is full of crap now and needs a big squirt of water for a flushing out of our current systemnal parts.
US, not up.
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Old 17th May 2019, 03:36 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by Robin View Post
What are you basing that on?
The words of the Governor of Alabama
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Old 17th May 2019, 04:23 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
Originally Posted by Robin View Post
What are you basing that on?
The words of the Governor of Alabama
I'm skeptical of your comment. Do you have a quote?

Wouldn't the decision to prosecute a law that is considered to be in effect fall to a district attorney, in any case?

The closest I've found is her saying that “no matter one’s personal view on abortion, we can all recognise that, at least for the short term, this bill may similarly be unenforceable”. This is a far cry from “... even if it does go into effect, it's not likely to be enforced.”.
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Old 17th May 2019, 04:37 PM   #111
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I am going for a goodly portion of Alabamans are waiting with bated breath for the rise of KKKNazis. I'll know if I am wrong if instead most/big majority cause the ******** who are trying this idiocy out to get thrown out - of windows. For the word fans still around, get defenestrated...….
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Old 17th May 2019, 05:10 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by cosmicaug View Post
I'm skeptical of your comment. Do you have a quote?

Wouldn't the decision to prosecute a law that is considered to be in effect fall to a district attorney, in any case?

The closest I've found is her saying that “no matter one’s personal view on abortion, we can all recognise that, at least for the short term, this bill may similarly be unenforceable”. This is a far cry from “... even if it does go into effect, it's not likely to be enforced.”.
I disagree with your characterization of "a far cry from..." The bill punishes doctors for performing abortions, not women from getting abortions. I can't take this legislation seriously. When doctors get thrown in jail for performing abortions in Alabama, skeptics can start kvetching without me calling them out on their histrionics.

Last edited by Baylor; 17th May 2019 at 05:22 PM. Reason: grammar
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Old 17th May 2019, 05:44 PM   #113
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
Originally Posted by cosmicaug View Post
I'm skeptical of your comment. Do you have a quote?

Wouldn't the decision to prosecute a law that is considered to be in effect fall to a district attorney, in any case?

The closest I've found is her saying that “no matter one’s personal view on abortion, we can all recognise that, at least for the short term, this bill may similarly be unenforceable”. This is a far cry from “... even if it does go into effect, it's not likely to be enforced.”.
I disagree with your characterization of "a far cry from..." The bill punishes doctors for performing abortions, not women from getting abortions. I can't take this legislation seriously. Until doctors get thrown in jail for performing abortions in Alabama, skeptics can start kvetching without me calling them out on their histrionics.
I don't know how else one would characterize it: the governor appears not to have said what you suggested that she said.

You claimed that even if it became the law of the land (in Alabama), it would not be likely to be enforced. Someone challenged you on it and asked what you would base this on and your reply was that the governor said so.

I asked you for the exact quote and you replied with a personal appeal to incredulity: you appear not to believe that the government of Alabama would dare to toss doctors in jail.

Would this be because doctors tend to be wealthy & considered pillars of the community? Or do you think that it's something that the Republican party really does not want to do "for real"? While you could be right about that, in the event that this law went into effect (again, I don't know that it is likely that this will happen —then again, in 2015 I don't think I thought that Trump's election was likely either and yet here we are), it would become a trap for Republicans since the other thing they would not want to do is have it on the books and risk angering their base by not using it (besides, even if such a strategic decision were made, there's always going to be some D.A. out there that will choose to prosecute).

Either way, that is, indeed, a fine opinion. However, that's all it is, an opinion; and it seems that it might merit a little bit less certitude than what came across with your comment.
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Old 17th May 2019, 09:03 PM   #114
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When the law goes into effect, doctors might get sued or even arrested. Even if not convicted, it will cost them money and time.
"Unenforceable" doesn't mean without consequence.
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Old 17th May 2019, 09:17 PM   #115
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IF this law proves enforceable, I predict Alabama is in for a rough road over the next decades.

First, the welfare system will be inundated with single women who are pregnant -many of them teenagers who will drop out of school.

Illegal abortion attempts will proliferate -everything from the proverbial coat hangers to poisons to scalding bathwater will be employed; much of it completely unsuccessful or causing horrific injuries or both.

Then in five years or so the educational system will be inundated with new enrollees, many of them uncared for and unwanted. I realize this is already a problem, but I believe this law will only make it worse as the uptick in the birth rate is mostly going to be among those who are least equipped for it.

Once the kids are of working age and welfare stops the crime rates will start to skyrocket, as those dropouts who are unable to find work will turn to theft and selling drugs to survive.

In fifteen years or so the first round of babies will be having babies. They will continue the cycle of poverty by dropping out of school and burdening the social services just as the earlier generation before them.

Those who have always known they were unloved and unwanted will be suffering the aftermath; mental health services, the courts and the jails will be seeing a huge upsurge in the numbers of cases involving mental and emotional damage.
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Old 18th May 2019, 06:02 PM   #116
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by DragonLady View Post
Illegal abortion attempts will proliferate -everything from the proverbial coat hangers to poisons to scalding bathwater will be employed; much of it completely unsuccessful or causing horrific injuries or both.
Great business opportunity for your local drug dealer, though.
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Old 18th May 2019, 06:54 PM   #117
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And all this is with a doubly illegitimate Supreme Court. (Not only is there no excuse for the Kavenaugh thing, but the opening only still existed because of flagrant dereliction of duty by the Senate Republicans over Obama's last appointment.)
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Old 18th May 2019, 07:12 PM   #118
ChrisBFRPKY
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Originally Posted by DragonLady View Post
IF this law proves enforceable, I predict Alabama is in for a rough road over the next decades.

First, the welfare system will be inundated with single women who are pregnant -many of them teenagers who will drop out of school.

Illegal abortion attempts will proliferate -everything from the proverbial coat hangers to poisons to scalding bathwater will be employed; much of it completely unsuccessful or causing horrific injuries or both.

Then in five years or so the educational system will be inundated with new enrollees, many of them uncared for and unwanted. I realize this is already a problem, but I believe this law will only make it worse as the uptick in the birth rate is mostly going to be among those who are least equipped for it.

Once the kids are of working age and welfare stops the crime rates will start to skyrocket, as those dropouts who are unable to find work will turn to theft and selling drugs to survive.

In fifteen years or so the first round of babies will be having babies. They will continue the cycle of poverty by dropping out of school and burdening the social services just as the earlier generation before them.

Those who have always known they were unloved and unwanted will be suffering the aftermath; mental health services, the courts and the jails will be seeing a huge upsurge in the numbers of cases involving mental and emotional damage.
Or, they could simply stop using abortion as a method of birth control.

Chris B.
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Old 18th May 2019, 08:48 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by ChrisBFRPKY View Post
Or, they could simply stop using abortion as a method of birth control.

Chris B.
If you think abortion is commonly used as a "method of birth control" you are severely deluded.
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Old 18th May 2019, 09:52 PM   #120
ChrisBFRPKY
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
If you think abortion is commonly used as a "method of birth control" you are severely deluded.
Well then Bob, how's about telling everyone exactly how abortion is not the ultimate birth control then.......without resorting to the name calling if you can. (I realize it is difficult to argue in favor of an immorality without resorting to such things but please do try.)

Chris B.
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