|
Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today. |
23rd August 2017, 09:51 AM | #1 |
Misanthrope of the Mountains
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 24,133
|
threat of shutdown over the wall
Okay, so we have threats that there will be a government shutdown if The Wall® is not built. The last few times there was a government shutdown it did not turn out well for Republicans.
If they do go down this road what will the implications be? Will the base stand by? Will it finally be too much for moderate Republicans? |
__________________
"Because WE ARE IGNORANT OF 911 FACTS, WE DEMAND PROOF" -- Douglas Herman on Rense.com
|
|
23rd August 2017, 10:30 AM | #2 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 37,582
|
No ?
They have the Presidency, Senate, House and SCOTUS - doesn't look too bad from here. Nothing, they will blame the Democrats for obstructionism and enough of the great American electorate will believe them that they will get away with it. HELLS YES !!!!! Indeed it will build support among the base seeing him tackling The Swamp head on like this. Of course not. They will either be spineless wienies who will just accept whatever The President does or rationalise it that Hillary would have done far, far worse. Even if government is completely shut down, it will be a "victory" for lower government spending At this stage I cannot think of a set of circumstances that would have so called "moderate Republicans" (IMO now an oxymoron, even Democrats are right wing by UK standards so Republicans are far-right or completely hatstand) do anything other than slavishly vote for GOP legislation despite their "brave" words |
23rd August 2017, 12:01 PM | #3 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Blackstone River Valley, MA
Posts: 2,298
|
Although the repercussions did not last long, after the last two shutdowns the Republicans did sink in the opinion polls for a while.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...%931996#Result
Quote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...down_had_begun
Quote:
My feeling is that we are too far away from the mid-term elections for a shutdown to have a meaningful impact on the Republicans. |
23rd August 2017, 12:45 PM | #4 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Arizona
Posts: 1,744
|
I do think that Trump is getting on their nerves, though. And if the Republicans in Congress don't want to do a shutdown and don't really care about the wall (which I think is the case) and Trump pushes it he's going to push it in a way that pisses them off. I'm not saying they'll revolt or anything, but it will be one more thing that makes them wish he wasn't around.
|
23rd August 2017, 01:18 PM | #5 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12,454
|
I think the challenge is that there is a significant caucus within Congress that considers a government shutdown a victory in and of itself.
Previous shutdowns didn't include 'vital services' - very aligned with Libertarian values. Shut down the parks, shut down welfare, shut down arts programs, shut down the EPA and science grants. Keep the army and police running. There's probably dozens of Representatives who would consider this Mission Accomplished that they can take to the electorate to defend their Districts. |
__________________
"Sometimes it's better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness." - Terry Pratchett |
|
23rd August 2017, 01:38 PM | #6 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 6,140
|
You know people really need to stop worrying about the Republican base, they're a lost cause. The focus should be on the people who maybe didn't vote because they didn't think much of Hilary and hey everyone said Trump was going to lose, they're the ones that need to be reached if there's a shutdown.
|
__________________
So I've started a blog about my writing. Check it out at: http://fourth-planet-problem.blogspot.com/ And my first book is on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077W322FX |
|
23rd August 2017, 01:44 PM | #7 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,718
|
I don't think they'll revolt either. The best we could expect would be silence and inaction.
I agree I think a good many Republicans these days think that these sorts of shutdowns should be permanent. They believe that services that are not done during the shutdowns should not be done by the government anyway; the employees who are laid off should also not work for the government. I don't know how much they care about election consequences. The Supreme Court has ruled against some of the gerrymandering, but did not require much of any speed to revise them - the gerrrymandered boundaries will still be in place for the next election. Increased voter registration restrictions will be in place for the next election. Republicans may be useless at governing, but they are much better than Democrats when it comes to winning elections. |
23rd August 2017, 03:18 PM | #8 |
Poisoned Waffles
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Monkey
Posts: 68,744
|
There's little point in the Wall now that the Night King has a pet dragon.
|
__________________
You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara. |
|
23rd August 2017, 03:29 PM | #9 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 12,454
|
|
__________________
"Sometimes it's better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness." - Terry Pratchett |
|
23rd August 2017, 10:52 PM | #10 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 37,582
|
|
23rd August 2017, 11:04 PM | #11 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 96,386
|
Trump's out of tax money to fill his resort coffers and protect his kids on their ski trips. He's bluffing about a budget veto.
|
23rd August 2017, 11:06 PM | #12 |
Nasty Woman
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 96,386
|
|
23rd August 2017, 11:30 PM | #13 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 37,582
|
I'm not sure that you're right that only a minority of racists are still in his court.
Latest Gallup figures are that 79% of Republicans still support him. The Christian fundamentalists are still firmly behind him because of his newly-found anti-abortion stance, his recent attack on transgender individuals in the military and, most of all, his appointment of a conservative SCOTUS member to replace Scalia. If one or more other spots open up on the Supreme Court then he can lock down that support. His own hard-core "Trumpistas" are still behind him 100% and will likely stay that way forever. I've seen various figures but 20-25% of the US population, so close to 50% of the GOP, fall into that category. IMO the majority of racists, white supremacists and Nazis fall into this category. The Tea Party is also behind him because of the chaotic way he is trying to run the government plays into their "government does not work" narrative. These three groups, although they have some overlap, account for the majority of Republicans. OTOH "moderate Republicans" are a small and shrinking rump. Those that haven't either capitulated to one of the Republicans groups listed above or have left the party in disgust are fighting a rearguard action. If you're expecting that there is a large number (perhaps a majority) of "moderate Republicans" quietly waiting in the wings to take their party back - I think you're very much mistaken. edited to add..... I can see that there may be some change in these numbers if the Democratic Party had won one or more of the special elections. I know they narrowed the margins in some staunchly GOP constituencies but they still didn't actually win any of the elections. |
24th August 2017, 12:25 AM | #14 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
|
|
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
|
24th August 2017, 12:34 AM | #15 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
|
That's a bit of an understatement.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...st-everywhere/ Only one swing could count as making a differene (NH House District Carroll 6), but swings of up to 30 and more percentage points is not so much narrowing the margins as is redrawing the electoral map. Republicans have relied on gerrymandering for years. With Trump this could backfire - as a result of Republican gerrymandering many Democrat seats are as safe as safe can be (Louisiana Senate District 2), but many Republican seats are just winnable. A ten point swing towards Democrats - average is over 14 percentage points - makes them gerrymandered Democrat. Unless things change, the 2018 and 2020 elections could look a bit like the 1984 election, but in reverse. McHrozni |
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
|
24th August 2017, 04:16 AM | #16 |
Misanthrope of the Mountains
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 24,133
|
I would say that adding a shutdown to the growing list of incompetencies definitely could sway quite a few minds in the next election.
|
__________________
"Because WE ARE IGNORANT OF 911 FACTS, WE DEMAND PROOF" -- Douglas Herman on Rense.com
|
|
24th August 2017, 04:28 AM | #17 |
Featherless biped
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Aporia
Posts: 26,431
|
No wall. No shutdown. Just your president pissing in the wind. Again.
|
24th August 2017, 05:07 AM | #18 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Sorth Dakonsin
Posts: 29,368
|
What? The PDJT wants to close down national parks and monuments and not allow US citizens access to "our culture"? Sad.
|
__________________
Science is self-correcting. Woo is self-contradicting. |
|
24th August 2017, 05:19 AM | #19 |
Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In a post-fact world
Posts: 96,875
|
|
24th August 2017, 05:34 AM | #20 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 9,800
|
I expect Trump is stupid enough to get into a pissing match with his own party leading to the shutdown of the government.
I also expect the Democrats are incompetent enough to squander the opportunity to make any gains. |
24th August 2017, 05:45 AM | #21 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: The Connecticut School for Rumpology.
Posts: 6,036
|
Don't worry. I have every confidence the Mexicans will come through with the money for the wall at the eleventh hour.
|
24th August 2017, 06:08 AM | #22 |
Time Person of the Year, 2006
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Right here!
Posts: 19,246
|
|
__________________
I've always believed that cluelessness evolved as an adaptation to allow the truly appalling to live with themselves. - G. B. Trudeau A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. - Kay, Men in Black. Enjoy every sandwich. - Warren Zevon |
|
24th August 2017, 07:17 AM | #23 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Colorado
Posts: 5,718
|
The primaries rarely reward moderates. At any rate, the Republicans are moving more and more towards closed primaries or caucuses, which are even less likely to support moderates.
That is to say, I have never heard of a right-wing Republican getting "caucused" by a moderate, but there are plenty of examples of moderates who got caucused by, and replaced by much more conservative Republicans. The Republicans who are motivated enough to take part in caucuses, who are registered to vote in closed primaries are still very strongly supportive of Trump, at most they might be upset that he has not yet jailed Hillary Clinton. And they can be that way, because they are really good at winning elections. |
24th August 2017, 07:22 AM | #24 |
Banned
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 58,581
|
|
24th August 2017, 07:33 AM | #25 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 6,595
|
He has failed to force Mexico to pay for the wall. His fallback position is to force US taxpayers to pay for it.
Or else. He wants that goddamn wall. Even if it means default, insolvency, and another worldwide economic crisis. Even if the Social Security checks become worthless IOU's. Yes, even if he has to starve Granny, he wants that goddamn wall. Plus, he senses the weakness of both the congressional politikers and the compromised US electorate who put them in congress. He's willing to gamble they won't be able to override his veto, or impeach him, or anything. Trump believes he can run this bozo bus off the road. |
__________________
"I did not say that!" - Donald Trump |
|
24th August 2017, 07:56 AM | #26 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,400
|
Yes, I don't understand why he needs to shutdown the government over the wall if the Mexicans were going to pay for it.
Congress should just say, we will fund it when you get the money from Mexico. |
__________________
"I kayak, therefore I am" |
|
24th August 2017, 08:25 AM | #27 |
Scholar
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 77
|
I think the best outcome would be for him to go on stage and tell everybody that he himself already built the wall, with his own bare hands, that Mexico paid for every penny of it and that the immigration rate, the crime rate and the unemployment rate has gone down to zero ever since.
And that the lying media is failing to report on any of that or, even worse, lying by claiming otherwise. That way his core supporters would be very happy and very much in support of him, he would be in the news for that and therefore not for the Russia investigation for at least three days, and everybody else would be happy that there is no wall (in factland, which his supporters wouldn't care about at all). |
24th August 2017, 08:37 AM | #28 | |||
NWO Kitty Wrangler
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 29,690
|
|
|||
__________________
Obviously, that means cats are indeed evil and that ownership or display of a feline is an overt declaration of one's affiliation with dark forces. - Cl1mh4224rd |
||||
24th August 2017, 08:56 AM | #29 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Sydney Nova Scotia
Posts: 13,833
|
|
__________________
Caption from and old New Yorker cartoon - Why am I shouting? Because I'm wrong!" |
|
24th August 2017, 08:04 PM | #30 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Dharug & Gundungurra
Posts: 16,809
|
I suspect Trump is becoming an irrelevancy to government. A noisy, undisciplined, insanity-ridden irrelevancy, but pointless nonetheless.
|
__________________
...our governments are just trying to protect us from terror. In the same way that someone banging a hornets’ nest with a stick is trying to protect us from hornets. Frankie Boyle, Guardian, July 2015 |
|
24th August 2017, 08:41 PM | #31 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 69,914
|
|
24th August 2017, 10:38 PM | #32 |
Grammar Resistance Leader
TLA Dictator Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 41,468
|
As can be seen by lists of indictments that FOLLOW various tenures in the White House. But that's so often after-the-fact, isn't it?
The fact is that the theoretical checks and balances have been eroded, bit by bit, since George Washington took his seat after taking the oath. I haven't delved much further back, but at least from Hoover to present, you can find one or another opinion piece referring to the current regime as "The Imperial Presidency of ____________". Fill in Hoover, Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon (skip Ford and skip Carter), Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, and naturally - Obama. The fact is that the President, through EOs can essentially govern by fiat. Oh, he'll have to get to the vault (Congress) sooner or later but there are so many things that a POTUS can get done by EO, that it boggles the mind what some of the founding fathers would think (well, other than Hamilton - he'd love it). |
__________________
Ha! Foolmewunz has just been added to the list of people who aren't complete idiots. Hokulele It's not that liberals have become less tolerant. It's that conservatives have become more intolerable. |
|
Thread Tools | |
|
|