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12th July 2017, 08:31 AM | #481 |
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12th July 2017, 08:34 AM | #482 |
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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12th July 2017, 08:40 AM | #483 |
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Quote:
I hope Trump keeps on tweeting. Every tweet is an indictment against America and its people. He's writing down your mistakes and documenting your downfall. History will not be kind to Trumps enablers. |
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We would be a lot safer if the Government would take its money out of science and put it into astrology and the reading of palms. Only in superstition is there hope. - Kurt Vonnegut Jr And no, Cuba is not a brutal and corrupt dictatorship, and it's definitely less so than Sweden. - dann |
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12th July 2017, 08:50 AM | #484 |
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Yet still getting 40% in the polls
The trouble is that 40% of people in the U.S. don't seem to mind or care about any of that. They are pro-Trump because:
...and a significant chunk of the 60% don't care enough to do anything about it - like go out and vote - because they have other things to worry about. Wait until 2020 and it'll be another wartime election.... ...either because the U.S. will be once again in a brand spanking new war or because a "War on Something-or-other" will have been declared You may think he is becoming toxic but I see little evidence of it from the actions of the GOP. |
12th July 2017, 08:57 AM | #485 |
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12th July 2017, 09:00 AM | #486 |
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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12th July 2017, 09:03 AM | #487 |
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12th July 2017, 09:05 AM | #488 |
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12th July 2017, 09:08 AM | #489 |
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12th July 2017, 09:13 AM | #490 |
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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12th July 2017, 09:25 AM | #491 |
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I simply won't be as despondent as you. I think the Trump supporters, while there, are nowhere near as many as you think, because I still have some faith in the American people. I believe a number of variables are going to come into effect by the next election. For example, the latest Russia scandal. That's going to really bite, even if it doesn't lead to immediate impeachment (which it damn well should). Another aspect is the age of the average Trump voter. This is a dying generation. Young people are overwhelmingly liberal. Their death will be sped up by the disastrous policies of the GOP.
That said, 2018 is still the fork in the road. If the Democrats can't take back congress - at least the Senate - it's all over, and armed revolution is the only choice. By 2020 the GOP will have been able to cheat the process enough to secure their power. |
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12th July 2017, 10:29 AM | #492 |
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12th July 2017, 11:38 AM | #493 |
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12th July 2017, 11:47 AM | #494 |
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12th July 2017, 11:48 AM | #495 |
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I'm not despondent at all. Instead I see the United States getting the exactly the government that a large minority want, that more are happy to tolerate and that 45% of the electorate couldn't be bothered to vote against.
Indeed I think I'm less despondent than many because this kind of government isn't unprecedented in the U.S. The U.S. has a long and proud history of coming up with "know nothing" movements (the catalyst for which is typically an economic crisis) which grip the public and look very bad from a distance but which do little long-term damage. IMO the vast majority of people in the US couldn't give a flying **** about most things from one day to the next. For sure they can be stirred from their indifference by something particularly juicy (like pussy-gate) but quickly lose focus or are distracted by life, sports or celebrity. In this way they are like most people in most developed countries. They may even be persuaded to be bothered about this but in a week or so it will be largely forgotten or at least the heat will have gone out of it. Most people are simply not that bothered - and in truth on a day-to-day basis not that affected. Young people will be largely unaffected by the GOP's policies or more particularly those who are politically engaged are largely unaffected. Young people have less demand for medical services so they won't be as badly affected by the replacement for the ACA. The impact of withdrawing from the Paris accord will take decades to be felt. Young people are more mobile and have greater opportunities. The irony is that it is the GOP core who will be hardest hit. Working class or lower middle class older people will really feel the effects of GOP policy. You may unclench your pearls, none of this is the end of the world. The Democratic Party are very unlikely to claim back the Senate. It's not to do with electoral fraud, it's to do with simple electoral mathematics. The Democratic Party is defending the vast majority of seats and there simply aren't that many viable target seats for them. Armed revolution in the United States is doomed to failure. The GOP has the overwhelming support of the armed forces, FBI and police. Any armed resistance will be crushed like a bug - like back in 1968. In due course the pendulum will likely swing back. |
12th July 2017, 11:49 AM | #496 |
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12th July 2017, 01:13 PM | #497 |
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My one concern is that, absent more teeth, Europe on its own would fold immediately after a single tactical nuke to a major city by the Russians (rumored to be their opinion as well). I admire the ideals, but the world is not there yet, so the EU has some big thinking to do about how to become strategically independent. I hope it is soonest.
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12th July 2017, 01:29 PM | #498 |
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It very literally might be, well, at least the world as we know it. We have a looming cloud hanging over us all, and Trump and his cronies are dead set to ignore it, and will probably make it even worse.
The same was true about the GOP in 2016. I'd like to see evidence of this. And by then it'll be too late. |
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Before you say something stupid about climate change, check this list. "If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. " Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies Vol. 1 |
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12th July 2017, 06:05 PM | #499 |
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http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/12/politi...are/index.html
This is excellent. The Senate will be forced to shore up the ACA when their version of the House Bill fails. When The Hair Fails the nation succeeds. The only true patriotism right now is subverting the Trump presidency. |
12th July 2017, 06:23 PM | #500 |
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What "vast majority"?
How about putting into your calculations the fact that "The president's party always gets shellacked in midterms. It's only twice, 1934 and 2002, that the president's party actually gained in both the House and the Senate?" |
12th July 2017, 06:24 PM | #501 |
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12th July 2017, 08:07 PM | #502 |
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Why bother? |
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12th July 2017, 09:23 PM | #503 |
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fearless prediction:
Trump is out before Tony Stark and logger return.... |
12th July 2017, 10:00 PM | #504 |
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..and that's why, despite a deeply unpopular and divisive (both incorrectly so IMO) candidate fielded by the other side, they lost a net 2 seats. They gained 9 the previous time around when they weren't defending the majority of seats.
That the GOP is the favoured party of the military and law enforcement ? Military: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ary-vote-have/ Law enforcement: https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/...2nO/story.html I think you need to calm down and get a sense of perspective. Even if the GOP is successful in implementing wide-scale voter suppression, it'll still be a drop in the ocean compared to the days of Jim Crow in the South. Even if the GOP manage to repeal whole swathes of environmental legislation we'll still be far better off than in the 70's (not least because the size of the polluting industries in the US is smaller these days). If civil rights are significantly eroded, it will have been from an historically high water mark. Even if Trump is as divisive as we think, the US survived a Civil War, it'll take 8 years of rank incompetency in its stride and compared to Harding, Trump is as straight as a die |
12th July 2017, 10:10 PM | #505 |
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The vast majority of the US population who are not politically engaged (though the US is not unusual in this).
45% couldn't even be bothered to turn out to vote in the Presidential elections. Of the rest, many voted based on pure party allegiance rather than specific policies. On a day to day basis, most people are interested about making their rent payment, the wellbeing of their kids, how well their sports team is doing, what their upcoming holiday will be like, whether Celebrity A is shagging Celebrity B. A vague interest in politics comes along at election time or when something noteworthy happens (like now or "Pussy-Gate") but it soon passes. It seems odd to people like you and me who are politically engaged but most people simply do not care. Trump's success is evidence of that. The Democrats are defending the vast majority of Senate seats and are fighting gerrymandering in the House. The GOP doesn't have to make gains, it just needs to keep its losses to a moderate extent. The Democratic Party were "sure" they'd take the House and Senate in 2016 - look how that turned out. |
12th July 2017, 11:43 PM | #506 |
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Also from your own link:
Quote:
....The Democratic Party is IMO mistaken if they think that they can make significant electoral inroads in 2018 simply by being "not Trump". In the Senate electoral maths is against them - there are few seats that are potentially available and most of them would require a huge swing - and in the House gerrymandering has given the GOP a healthy inbuilt majority. In order to seize control of House and/or Senate IMO the Democratic Party will need to come up with some exciting and enticing policies and/or some exciting and enticing candidates. |
13th July 2017, 01:49 AM | #507 |
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Don't you see my point? In 2016, the GOP were defending seats, and they gained.
That article says a an opt-in poll was taken and described as unscientific. Hardly good evidence. Does not contain any polling of police officers, but notes that Trump was endorsed by a police union and a border patrol union. Does not relate to whether the police in general trends Republican. Climate change is considerably worse now than in the 70's. If you assert that it's ok if the US reverts environmental legislation towards that of the 70's, you do not understand the massive problem we are facing with regards to climate change. |
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Before you say something stupid about climate change, check this list. "If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. " Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies Vol. 1 |
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13th July 2017, 02:09 AM | #508 |
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No, they were down 2
Before they were 54/44, now they're 52/48 A poll of military and veterans: http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/dat...voters-n643501 Polling of police officers: http://www.policemag.com/channel/pat...tial-poll.aspx
Quote:
I'm not saying it's OK but you're asserting that it's the end of the world. Even if the U.S. rolls back a lot of environmental legislation, it (and the world) still be better off than if it had stuck with what was in place at the start of the 1970s. Heck taking leaded petrol and CFCs out of the mix alone has saved millions of lives. |
13th July 2017, 02:44 AM | #509 |
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Ok, fail on my part. Point taken.
Better poll. Wonder how they feel now. Opt-in poll. Yes, but self reporting. But we didn't stick with what we had at the start of the 1970s. We adapted to changing circumstances, and were in the process to start adapting to the largest crisis of pretty much any generation in history. You might as well say "we're better off with Trump than with the Spanish Inquisition". While true, it doesn't really measure up. As for it being the end of the world, I qualified it as possibly being the end of the world as we know it. That's what it's going to be unless action is taken. Trump is retarding that process, possibly irreparably. |
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Before you say something stupid about climate change, check this list. "If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. " Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies Vol. 1 |
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13th July 2017, 03:02 AM | #510 |
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So do you accept the evidence that the military leans GOP ?
Well if they're anything like the wider GOP, 85% still feel he's doing a fine job Still, with the other evidence (including the endorsement of Trump by police bodies) IMO it's strongly suggestive that police lean GOP too You're asserted that if the Democratic Party fails to make electoral advances in 2018 and/or doesn't get the Presidency in 2020 then the only recourse will be to an armed insurrection (which I think will fail, and fail badly). I think you're being hyperbolic. What the U.S. is facing now is nothing that they haven't weathered in the past and come through scarred but unbeaten. Yes, Trump is repealing all kinds of environmental legislation, but it'll still put us no worse off than we were 40 years ago and the federal nature of the U.S. means that large parts (like California) can continue to press on despite him. IMO Trump is a terrible, terrible President but whatever damage he and his cronies do can be reversed by his successors - so long as that is the will of the American people. IMO the problem isn't so much Trump and the current GOP (they are IMO a symptom, not a cause). IMO the issue is that there are tens of millions of people in the US who think the world is 6,000 years old, who want to live in a country governed by the 10 commandments, who view any kind of learning with suspicion, who have no consideration than their immediate self interest, who don't really understand what is in their immediate self interest - or a combination of two or many of these things. An attempted armed insurrection isn't going to make that situation better, it will just entrench the victim mentality. |
13th July 2017, 03:08 AM | #511 |
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Yep, you've sold me. I do think they will change their minds, if they haven't already. They were duped, just like the coal miners.
And you're still missing the point that we don't have 40 years to wait. The damage Trump is doing to environmental protection is irreversible in the time frame we're talking about. Armed insurgence might fail, but it would still be the moral thing to do. |
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Before you say something stupid about climate change, check this list. "If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. " Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies Vol. 1 |
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13th July 2017, 03:23 AM | #512 |
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Those in the military and law enforcement "industries" are likely looking forward to increased budgets and greater latitude for action under the GOP in general and President Trump in particular.
Trump is their wet dream, "blue lives matter" will be overjoyed and the military and law enforcement will continue to get the uncritical support and praise they want. I also think that very few Trump supporters will end up with buyers' remorse. Some already have everything they want (Gorsuch on SCOTUS and Planned Parenthood defunded), others can see what they want on the way and any failures to deliver will be blamed on the other lot. Who says we have to wait 40 years ? I'm saying that we will be briefly returned to a situation no worse than we were 40 years ago from a legislative point of view (in fact far better not least because many big states can continue on the "right" path). If the US chose to reverse the changes then they can do that. My concern is they won't want to, but then we'd be talking about imposing environmental legislation against the will of the (admittedly badly informed) people which doesn't sound very democratic to me. Think ahead, but IMO it would be devastatingly counterproductive not least because it would allow a state of emergency to be declared which would give the President and his cronies greater power |
13th July 2017, 03:34 AM | #513 |
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But it's all bull, and I think the cops and the military will learn that soon, if they haven't already. I think you are seriously selling short the intelligence of these people.
69 percent of US voters wanted the US to remain in the Paris agreement. And you are thinking far too much in a vacuum. The world isn't the US, but what the US does affects the world, including the thinking of the rest of the world. As the US gears up to increase emissions, ignoring science and reversing environmental protections, this affects the politics of the rest of the world. It becomes a "why should we make efforts when the US just blazes on?" You are also discounting the possibility of a legislative deadlock in the future, meaning that the regulations Trump can do away with now might not be easily replaced in the future. That means that the "briefly" part of your post might not be so brief. US politics is often a tug-of-war. Right now, there's nobody on the opposing side from Trump. Yes. But by then, they won't need it. |
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Before you say something stupid about climate change, check this list. "If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. " Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies Vol. 1 |
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13th July 2017, 03:55 AM | #514 |
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I don't think it's bull, I fully expect to see significant increases in military and law enforcement spending and it there's one thing that's certain is that the GOP will be visibly supporting "our troops" and the brave boys in blue.
Political allegiance is very persistent and IMO has less to do with intelligence than it does with loyalty - and one thing that the military are known for it's loyalty. I keep hoping to see Trump's approval numbers tumbling among GOP supporters but they seem to be stubbornly high. I don't anticipate any significant long term change. His GOP approvals may take a small dip but, like a persistent unflushable turd, I expect to see them bobbing back up. I'd be shocked to find that 69% of Americans (or people from any electorate in the world) had anything other than a very cursory understanding of the Paris Accord and what it would mean for them. That 69% is likely to be subject to change IMO. As for "why should we make efforts when the US just blazes on?", with US replaced by China and India that was the US' reason to withdraw. Well no-one apart from the Democratic Party - who can largely paralyse things - and the judiciary - who have done a good job so far. I think you overestimate what Trump and his cronies can/will do and the sweeping additional powers they would be granted in a state of emergency. For example, without a state of emergency, large scale internment is absolutely off the cards. Under a state of emergency martial law could be imposed where required. |
13th July 2017, 04:01 AM | #515 |
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I disagree. I think shifting demographics within these branches will have an effect on political allegiance.
It's likely to go up when the signs of climate change become clearer. The difference being that when the US said it, it was wrong. China is doing a lot to combat climate change. The GOP holds two of the three branches of government, and they are in a position to stack the third with yes-men. We're talking a civil war type scenario. I don't think any of that matters in such a scenario. In fact, it might even make resistance ranks swell. |
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Before you say something stupid about climate change, check this list. "If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. " Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies Vol. 1 |
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13th July 2017, 04:15 AM | #516 |
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That will take generations. Unless elections go the way you want, you're suggesting an uprising in a little over 3 years time.
In 3 years time there will only be marginal changes to political allegiance due to demographics. Then that's a good indication that any damage done to environmental legislation by Trump and his cronies can be quickly reversed without having to resort to civil war. ....and they won't suddenly reverse that just because the US under Trump has pulled out of the Paris Accord. So ? You asserted that there's no opposition - I stated that there was. IMO even if the judiciary is stacked it's still no justification to start a civil war that would tear the U.S. apart and kill millions I still think you're mistaken that civil war is justified in the event that Donald Trump is re-elected. It sounds like catastrophe porn to me. YMCV (your mileage clearly varies). |
13th July 2017, 04:18 AM | #517 |
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True.
No, it's not. There's a difference between what the public wants and what the GOP wants. Maybe not China, considering they are ruled by one party. Other parts of the world - the democratic parts - are a different story. No meaningful opposition. If you don't care if democracy dies, I guess not. Yep. |
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Before you say something stupid about climate change, check this list. "If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. " Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies Vol. 1 |
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13th July 2017, 04:30 AM | #518 |
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The Don,
One of the things you aren't looking at is the shift of the attitude of Trump's supporters. Rasmussen, noted for leaning conservative, publishes their daily approve/disapprove numbers. But the breakdown in the numbers is interesting. Their more professional version - which they link to but no one ever checks, has trends that show serious erosion in that support. His current "strongly approve" is down to 26%, which is about where I'd peg the "cut-em-and-they-bleed-Republican-red" vote. The margin between STRONGLY disapprove (46%) and STRONGLY approve (26%) is -20. There's a lot of soft support out there. These are from highs of 31% and 44%, respectively, about ten days into his administration - that was a +13 margin in Trump's favor. His Strong to Strong comparison has dropped 33 points! http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._index_history |
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Ha! Foolmewunz has just been added to the list of people who aren't complete idiots. Hokulele It's not that liberals have become less tolerant. It's that conservatives have become more intolerable. |
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13th July 2017, 04:30 AM | #519 |
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Then I'm at a loss what point you're making. If the people want it then that's what they get when the other lot get in power in 6 years time or so.
And yet the US seems to be a catalyst to countries re-affirming their commitment. No True Scotsman ? I think you're over-reacting if you think that Trump being re-elected is the death of democracy. For sure if it's as a result of large-scale voter suppression then it's an attack on democracy but then again any conceivable voter suppression activities would be overwhelmed if the Democratic Party actually proposed popular policies and/or fielded popular candidates. The US was a democracy back in the 1950s, by today's standards a flawed one but still a democracy. Even if the GOP succeeds in its voter suppression measures the US will still be streets ahead of where it was back then. |
13th July 2017, 04:36 AM | #520 |
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