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Tags donald trump , Trump administration , Trump controversies

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Old 13th July 2017, 05:15 AM   #521
The Great Zaganza
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
The Don,
One of the things you aren't looking at is the shift of the attitude of Trump's supporters. Rasmussen, noted for leaning conservative, publishes their daily approve/disapprove numbers. But the breakdown in the numbers is interesting. Their more professional version - which they link to but no one ever checks, has trends that show serious erosion in that support.

His current "strongly approve" is down to 26%, which is about where I'd peg the "cut-em-and-they-bleed-Republican-red" vote. The margin between STRONGLY disapprove (46%) and STRONGLY approve (26%) is -20. There's a lot of soft support out there. These are from highs of 31% and 44%, respectively, about ten days into his administration - that was a +13 margin in Trump's favor. His Strong to Strong comparison has dropped 33 points!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._index_history

The problem with these numbers is that they probably won't affect the 2018 elections, only the nomination for 2020 IF there is any credible challenger for Trump.
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Old 13th July 2017, 06:00 AM   #522
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The problem with these numbers is that they probably won't affect the 2018 elections, only the nomination for 2020 IF there is any credible challenger for Trump.
There is some rumblings from Kasich. If he positions himself correctly and builds a stronger base, I think he could challenge Trump if Trump's numbers continue to be low.
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Old 13th July 2017, 06:07 AM   #523
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Originally Posted by seayakin View Post
There is some rumblings from Kasich. If he positions himself correctly and builds a stronger base, I think he could challenge Trump if Trump's numbers continue to be low.
A successful challenging of a sitting president for the nomination of his party would be interesting
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Old 13th July 2017, 06:58 AM   #524
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So Gary D. Cohn and H. R. McMaster just had their oped

Quote:
President Trump just concluded a second overseas trip to further advance America’s interests and values, and to strengthen our alliances around the world. Both this and his first trip demonstrated the resurgence of American leadership to bolster common interests, affirm shared values, confront mutual threats and achieve renewed prosperity.

Discussions with world leaders highlighted extraordinary potential: vast supplies of affordable energy, untapped markets that can be opened to new commerce, a growing number of young people seeking the chance to build better futures in their homelands and new partnerships among nations that can form the basis for lasting peace. At every opportunity abroad, President Trump articulated his vision for securing the American homeland, enhancing American prosperity and advancing American influence.

...

America First is rooted in confidence that our values are worth defending and promoting. This is a time of great challenge for our friends and allies around the globe — but it is also a moment of extraordinary opportunity. The American delegation returned from the trip with tremendous optimism about the future and what the United States, our allies and our partners can achieve together.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/13/o...ca-abroad.html

They don't bother to respond to the pointed criticisms of Trump's foreign policy. Instead it's just a bland and overly lengthy description of how Trump's foreign policy wonks wished his foreign policy is or at least how it was perceived.

The highlighted bit is a part of the problem: other countries rightfully see America's foreign policy under Trump as exhibiting egotism and being self-centered even to the point of harming its own interests. Trump is completely indifferent to how his trade partners fare as long as he's convinced that the US somehow comes out the "winner". They don't bother to counter the perception that most observers had of G-20 meeting as yet another example of how America has ceased to have any kind of grand strategic vision and plan for the future.

They end their piece with acknowledging that other countries are going to have a hard time swallowing Americas new foreign policy yet don't bother to mention what kind of "extraordinary opportunity" other countries are offered. Presumably its the "extraordinary opportunity" of working to make America great again, as if they would have any other use for other countries.

America first will end up making America alone.
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Old 13th July 2017, 09:08 AM   #525
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Much has now been said on the midterms, so could we perhaps leave it till next year and award points? Just a thought.

Touching on foreign policy (French foreign policy, that is)

With UK sidelined, Macron forges unlikely alliance with Trump
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ance-uk-brexit

Quote:
Emmanuel Macron, the dynamic French president, is emerging to be a great opportunist.

After setting himself up initially as the Gaullist statesman prepared to speak truth unto American power over climate change and protectionism, he has spied an opening to forge an unlikely alliance with US president Donald Trump – a chance created by the Brexit and domestic political preoccupations of Theresa May, and the American president’s frosty relationship with Angela Merkel.
Trump has backed-off a trip to the famously reticent UK in the expectation of demonstrations, while risking a visit to the notoriously riotous France. This may be explained by :
Quote:
But the British modus operandi through successive administrations has been to wield influence by offering a credible military partnership and airing any differences with Washington in private. May’s spokespeople say, for instance, she was dismayed at Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris climate change treaty, but such criticism rarely comes from the prime minister’s own mouth. It may even be one reason that street protests in France are predicted to be limited during Trump’s visit. The French trust their president to relay their concerns direct to Trump.
A trust the Brits do not have in May. Not even Conservatives.



Quote:
Macron, from the outset, has shown his independence from the president, upbraiding him in public and in his own words insisting on a tense handshake with Trump at their first meeting in Brussels, saying it was “a moment of truth” – a symbol, even at the smallest level, that France was not going to be pushed around.
Contrast with May scuttling across the Pond to pay homage, and her abject showing hand-wise.



Quote:
He promises again at these meetings to tell Trump to his face that he is making an error of historic proportions about climate change. Indeed he relishes these confrontations, exclaiming out loud at one G20 plenary meeting that he kept wishing to put the president right on something, but he was rarely in the room.
I rathr think Macron is so going to own Trump by the end of this. Putin and the Saudis should be very concerned.
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Old 13th July 2017, 09:17 AM   #526
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Confronting Trump on climate change might make Macron look good, but I can't imagine it changing anything with regard to Trump's policies. If anything, I could see it making him dig in his heels to avoid looking weak.
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Old 13th July 2017, 09:18 AM   #527
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
The highlighted bit is a part of the problem: other countries rightfully see America's foreign policy under Trump as exhibiting egotism and being self-centered even to the point of harming its own interests. Trump is completely indifferent to how his trade partners fare as long as he's convinced that the US somehow comes out the "winner". They don't bother to counter the perception that most observers had of G-20 meeting as yet another example of how America has ceased to have any kind of grand strategic vision and plan for the future.
I think it's been a wake-up call. The post-US world is no longer a medium-term prospect, it's at best imminent.

An ironic effect is that Europeans are increasing their defence spending : Macron's promising 2% right away.
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Old 13th July 2017, 09:31 AM   #528
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
Confronting Trump on climate change might make Macron look good, but I can't imagine it changing anything with regard to Trump's policies. If anything, I could see it making him dig in his heels to avoid looking weak.
It can't make the situation worse, and it works for Macron. He hasn't got Trump there for Trump's benefit, after all.

I think what Macron will want Trump to take away is an image of mutually-respecting strong leaders devoted to their national interests, able to work together where those interests don't conflict.
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Old 13th July 2017, 09:46 AM   #529
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Then I'm at a loss what point you're making. If the people want it then that's what they get when the other lot get in power in 6 years time or so.
Not necessarily, no.


Originally Posted by The Don View Post
And yet the US seems to be a catalyst to countries re-affirming their commitment.
Because the US is one of the largest polluters by capita, and the second largest over all.


Originally Posted by The Don View Post
No True Scotsman ?
When there's three branches of government and one party has effective control over all three, there's no effective opposition. You can call that a "no true Scotsman" fallacy, but it would be ridiculous.


Originally Posted by The Don View Post


I think you're over-reacting if you think that Trump being re-elected is the death of democracy.
Not the election. What he and the rest of the GOP does with the power given to them.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
For sure if it's as a result of large-scale voter suppression then it's an attack on democracy but then again any conceivable voter suppression activities would be overwhelmed if the Democratic Party actually proposed popular policies and/or fielded popular candidates.
No, not any conceivable voter suppression activities, especially combined with foreign meddling.

In short, no, it's still not Clinton's fault that Trump was elected.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The US was a democracy back in the 1950s, by today's standards a flawed one but still a democracy. Even if the GOP succeeds in its voter suppression measures the US will still be streets ahead of where it was back then.
Why stop at the 1950s? Do you believe the people who have no actual need for the concept of democracy will stop there?
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Old 13th July 2017, 09:46 AM   #530
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Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
I think what Macron will want Trump to take away is an image of mutually-respecting strong leaders devoted to their national interests, able to work together where those interests don't conflict.
That could work. I don't think Trump is the sort of person who can generally be reasoned with, but he can be emotionally manipulated and Macron seems to know how to work people. Perhaps some sort of shiny medallion can be arranged.
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Old 13th July 2017, 10:10 AM   #531
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
I don't think Trump is the sort of person who can generally be reasoned with, but he can be emotionally manipulated and Macron seems to know how to work people.
Can't argue with any of that.

Quote:
Perhaps some sort of shiny medallion can be arranged.
Or just dangled ...
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Old 13th July 2017, 10:17 AM   #532
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Donald Trump greeted with military fanfare in Paris
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nfare-in-paris

Quote:
The US president, Donald Trump, has begun a visit to Paris, greeted with military fanfare as the French leader, Emmanuel Macron, showed him Napoleon’s tomb before they began talks on Syria and counter-terrorism.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French...nd_Syria#Syria for Napoleon's experience of Syria. Just saying.
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Old 13th July 2017, 10:26 AM   #533
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
Confronting Trump on climate change might make Macron look good, but I can't imagine it changing anything with regard to Trump's policies. If anything, I could see it making him dig in his heels to avoid looking weak.

Something which doesn't seem to bother him in the least where Putin is concerned.

Maybe because Macron has less money to slip under the table?
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Old 13th July 2017, 11:16 AM   #534
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Teh Donald to Macron at presser: "You better do a good job [at making Paris peaceful] or you'll make me look bad"
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Old 13th July 2017, 11:42 AM   #535
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Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
fearless prediction:

Trump is out before Tony Stark and logger return....
Which is tomorrow, as far as I can tell. Depending on the meaning of "one month" for Logger. Tony got 30 days, which was the same as the number of days in June.

I wish I could even bring myself to hope you are right!
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Old 13th July 2017, 11:47 AM   #536
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
...
The Democrats are defending the vast majority of Senate seats and are fighting gerrymandering in the House. The GOP doesn't have to make gains, it just needs to keep its losses to a moderate extent.

The Democratic Party were "sure" they'd take the House and Senate in 2016 - look how that turned out.
IOW you base your pessimism on cherry picked evidence rather than looking at the total picture.
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Old 13th July 2017, 12:35 PM   #537
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Democrats are defending the vast majority of Senate seats and are fighting gerrymandering in the House. The GOP doesn't have to make gains, it just needs to keep its losses to a moderate extent.

The Democratic Party were "sure" they'd take the House and Senate in 2016 - look how that turned out.
That's not at all how I remember it. As I recall, aside from the Bernie Bros, they were pretty sure Clinton would win right up until Comey stepped in - but the House was out of the question, and the Senate would be tough to gain a majority in.

I have no actual confidence in the people of the US in general - in fact, I'm not at all surprised that, thanks to white racism, we followed up a hyper-competent black president with an incompetent and outright malignant white guy. But the truth is, the dems did reasonably well at the federal level. It's at the state and local level that they keep dropping the ball.
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Old 13th July 2017, 12:37 PM   #538
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
That's not at all how I remember it. As I recall, aside from the Bernie Bros, they were pretty sure Clinton would win right up until Comey stepped in - but the House was out of the question, and the Senate would be tough to gain a majority in.

I have no actual confidence in the people of the US in general - in fact, I'm not at all surprised that, thanks to white racism, we followed up a hyper-competent black president with an incompetent and outright malignant white guy. But the truth is, the dems did reasonably well at the federal level. It's at the state and local level that they keep dropping the ball.
At least between W and Trump we can show how much more competent a black man needs to be to get the same job as a white man.
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Old 13th July 2017, 01:55 PM   #539
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POTUS to Mrs. Macron (who is 24 years his older and fell in love with him when he was 15 and she his teacher): "You're in such good shape. She's in such good physical shape. Beautiful."

This guy is unbelievable.
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Old 13th July 2017, 02:35 PM   #540
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Now they've sorted it out age-wise...

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Old 13th July 2017, 03:41 PM   #541
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Now they've sorted it out age-wise...

http://i.imgur.com/YHqWKdE.jpg
Did he order the Happy Meal?
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Old 13th July 2017, 04:27 PM   #542
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You just know Macron's going to send a personal thank-you to whoever did the flowers.
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Old 13th July 2017, 06:02 PM   #543
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Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
Much has now been said on the midterms, so could we perhaps leave it till next year and award points? Just a thought.

Touching on foreign policy (French foreign policy, that is)

With UK sidelined, Macron forges unlikely alliance with Trump
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ance-uk-brexit



Trump has backed-off a trip to the famously reticent UK in the expectation of demonstrations, while risking a visit to the notoriously riotous France. This may be explained by :

A trust the Brits do not have in May. Not even Conservatives.




Contrast with May scuttling across the Pond to pay homage, and her abject showing hand-wise.




I rathr think Macron is so going to own Trump by the end of this. Putin and the Saudis should be very concerned.
Trump doesn't do loyalty. Macron will end up being one in a long line of toys the petulant toddler tires of. I don't understand why anyone thinks they'll be the one plaything with staying power.
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Old 13th July 2017, 07:35 PM   #544
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
That said, 2018 is still the fork in the road. If the Democrats can't take back congress - at least the Senate - it's all over, and armed revolution is the only choice. By 2020 the GOP will have been able to cheat the process enough to secure their power.
I hope you realize that the Senate races, taken collectively, are waaaay in favor of the Republicans. I actually give the Dems a better chance of recapturing the House than the Senate.
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Old 13th July 2017, 07:40 PM   #545
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
O.M.F.G. Look at Uncle Pat in the video. He's an animated cadaver.
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Old 13th July 2017, 07:47 PM   #546
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
I hope you realize that the Senate races, taken collectively, are waaaay in favor of the Republicans. I actually give the Dems a better chance of recapturing the House than the Senate.
Here's a little good news:

http://okdemocrats.org/release-democ...cial-election/
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Old 13th July 2017, 07:50 PM   #547
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Yes, Trump is repealing all kinds of environmental legislation, but it'll still put us no worse off than we were 40 years ago and the federal nature of the U.S. means that large parts (like California) can continue to press on despite him.

IMO Trump is a terrible, terrible President but whatever damage he and his cronies do can be reversed by his successors - so long as that is the will of the American people.
In general I agree with you in your discussion with uke2se except for this. Global warming cannot be "reversed" by subsequent administrations. The chances of a 2C rise in temperatures by the end of the century is very dicey now. If we have 8 years of delay by Trump/GOP and then a couple (or more?) years to turn the situation around, then parts of the planet become uninhabitable in 30+ years. Given a population of maybe 9+ billion by then, war, which will be inevitable will make WWII look like a prom dance.

In that, uke2se is too optimistic.
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Old 13th July 2017, 07:59 PM   #548
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
It's at the state and local level that they keep dropping the ball.
.... which, in turn, leads to a weak bench. A problem the Dems already have.
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Old 13th July 2017, 08:26 PM   #549
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
Did he order the Happy Meal?
No, he ordered the The The McGangBang off the secret menu.
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Old 13th July 2017, 11:26 PM   #550
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Trump's into transparency regarding his Mexican wall. NO! Damn it, the wall. Not the bidding or location or funding or anything else. He wants to wall to be transparent:

Quote:
"One of the things with the wall is, you need transparency," Trump said. "You have to be able to see through it. In other words, if you can't see through the wall—so it could be a steel wall with openings, but you have to have openings because you have to see what's on the other side of the wall."

"And I’ll give you an example. As horrible as it sounds, when they throw the large sacks of drugs over, and if you have people on the other side of the wall, you don't see them—they hit you in the head with 60 pounds of stuff? It's over," Trump said. "As crazy as that sounds, you need transparency through that wall."
He's certifiable.
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Old 13th July 2017, 11:41 PM   #551
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See-through solar panels, man.

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Old 13th July 2017, 11:49 PM   #552
The Don
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
IOW you base your pessimism on cherry picked evidence rather than looking at the total picture.
I'm exactly looking at the total picture.

The article you linked to earlier which pointed out that a sitting president has only increased their House and Senate seats on two occasions since the 1930's also pointed out that on a number of other occasions increased one but not suffered a significant reverse in the other.

OTOH the Republican Party needs a significant reverse in both and counting against that are the fact that the Democratic Party are defending the majority of Senate seats this time around and the Republican Party have done a lot of gerrymandering in the House. Yes, it is possible that the Democratic Party could gain control of one or both houses but it would require a much bigger swing than the raw number of seats required would imply.

If the Democratic Party are relying on "not Trump" and/or "the President always gets a shellacking in the mid-terms then I think they are going to be disappointed.

Here's an article from fivethirtyeight which explains some of the electoral mathematics:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-both-parties/

Quote:
The 2018 midterms are a story of two chambers. Democrats are in the best position they’ve been in since 2010 to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives. The Senate map, on the other hand, is so tilted toward the GOP that most political analysts have all but dismissed Democrats’ chances of winning the chamber before 2020. It has even been suggested that Republicans could gain enough Senate seats (eight) in 2018 to amass a filibuster-proof majority (60 seats)
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Old 13th July 2017, 11:53 PM   #553
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
In general I agree with you in your discussion with uke2se except for this. Global warming cannot be "reversed" by subsequent administrations. The chances of a 2C rise in temperatures by the end of the century is very dicey now. If we have 8 years of delay by Trump/GOP and then a couple (or more?) years to turn the situation around, then parts of the planet become uninhabitable in 30+ years. Given a population of maybe 9+ billion by then, war, which will be inevitable will make WWII look like a prom dance.

In that, uke2se is too optimistic.
I'm not suggesting that global warming will be reversed by subsequent administrations but the policies can be reversed. We've also had individual states come along and say that they will continue to adhere to the terms of the Paris Accord (or even pick up the slack from other states) and countries like China are outperforming their Paris Accord commitments.

I'm not saying that 8 years of Trump is anything other than a bad thing for the environment but I don't think it so catastrophic that it's worth starting an armed uprising (which will fail miserably and allow the Trump administration to take all kinds of emergency powers) if elections don't go the way of the Democratic Party.
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Old 13th July 2017, 11:55 PM   #554
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
POTUS to Mrs. Macron (who is 24 years his older and fell in love with him when he was 15 and she his teacher): "You're in such good shape. She's in such good physical shape. Beautiful."

This guy is unbelievable.
Yes he is. He genuinely thinks that this is a compliment - probably because if someone said the same to him about Melania, he'd be pleased as Punch.
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Old 14th July 2017, 12:10 AM   #555
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
When there's three branches of government and one party has effective control over all three, there's no effective opposition. You can call that a "no true Scotsman" fallacy, but it would be ridiculous.
....and yet despite there being "no effective opposition" many of his headline policies are stalled in the House or Senate or by the judiciary.

The things he has got done are the things he can do by decree (like pulling out of treaties and accords).

Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Not the election. What he and the rest of the GOP does with the power given to them.
They've been able to do comparatively little - so far.

What they have done (and plan to do) is unfortunate and regrettable but nothing that the US hasn't taken in its stride in the last century or so.

OTOH you are suggesting that if elections don't turn out the way you think they ought* to then there should be a civil war which would usher in a period of the death of democracy.

* - also don't underestimate the proportion of Americans who will be happy with the GOP because they'll stop abortion or the teaching of evolution or make sure that people can have as many guns as they want or whatever other bull people seem to believe.

Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
No, not any conceivable voter suppression activities, especially combined with foreign meddling.
You seem to be working yourself up into a lather about political catastrophe porn. The numbers involved in voter suppression are comparatively small. That's not to say that it's a good thing but the US has dealt with far worse in the past.

Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
In short, no, it's still not Clinton's fault that Trump was elected.
Never said it was

Then again, if the next Democratic Party presidential candidate can get voters to turn out in the proportions that Obama managed then GOP attempts at voter suppression will be irrelevant.

Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Why stop at the 1950s? Do you believe the people who have no actual need for the concept of democracy will stop there?
What do you think they will do ?

I think they'll try to do some tactical voter suppression (nothing new there) and some "off the books" policies (again nothing new there). It's not good but neither is it a reason to panic.
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Old 14th July 2017, 12:12 AM   #556
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Trump's into transparency regarding his Mexican wall. NO! Damn it, the wall. Not the bidding or location or funding or anything else. He wants to wall to be transparent:



He's certifiable.
Does he not realise that CCTV has been invented

What a maroon !
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Old 14th July 2017, 01:14 AM   #557
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Does he not realise that CCTV has been invented
But Mission Impossible...
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Old 14th July 2017, 02:41 AM   #558
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
POTUS to Mrs. Macron (who is 24 years his older and fell in love with him when he was 15 and she his teacher): "You're in such good shape. She's in such good physical shape. Beautiful."

This guy is unbelievable.
Trump. smh. oafish. shallow. shameful. I don't even.
The 'funny' thing is, the more he displays his vacuousness, the more inured the country becomes to it.
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Old 14th July 2017, 03:24 AM   #559
Aepervius
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
POTUS to Mrs. Macron (who is 24 years his older and fell in love with him when he was 15 and she his teacher): "You're in such good shape. She's in such good physical shape. Beautiful."

This guy is unbelievable.
Yes, I mentionend that in the "trap" thread too.

there is n o need for a trap, trump provide the shovel, and dig the hole, before throwing himself into it on his own.
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Old 14th July 2017, 03:53 AM   #560
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
Yes, I mentionend that in the "trap" thread too.

there is n o need for a trap, trump provide the shovel, and dig the hole, before throwing himself into it on his own.
The trouble is that, as TofuFighter points out, people in the US have become inured to it and it's the new normal. This should be a damaging embarrassment but instead it's just the way that Presidents act these days - nothing to see

Trump has learned that as long as he keeps a ****-storm of gaffes coming then no-one can get to focused on any one of them and there are no negative consequences
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