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Old 21st March 2019, 10:45 AM   #161
The Great Zaganza
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I am far less worried about what a true AGI would do than I worry about what a weaponized AI will be made to do by its creators.
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Old 21st March 2019, 11:07 AM   #162
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Originally Posted by Ron_Tomkins View Post
Yes. Basically this.
Except that is horribly wrong and misleading.
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Old 21st March 2019, 11:16 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
I am far less worried about what a true AGI would do than I worry about what a weaponized AI will be made to do by its creators.
Hello!

Hi there!

What's the job, boss?

Put me in the game, coach!

Мы получили это, суки!
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Old 21st March 2019, 12:22 PM   #164
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
For AGI, the problem is not how much they can out-think us. The problem is how much capacity they have to effect change in the physical world.
Ron_Tomkins already addressed this.

Originally Posted by Ron_Tomkins View Post
So suppose we invent an AI which has a job: To find the most efficient way to clean the environment on the planet. And then, suppose, after doing a deep analysis (deeper than any sum of human minds could ever do with their limited intelligence), the AI calculates that the most efficient way to clean the environment is to eradicate mankind. But because it is smart enough, it won't tell humans this because it knows that humans will obviously reject that option. So it will come up with a very intelligent scheme, smarter than anything any human mind could conceive, to slowly but surely, eradicate humankind. What's that scheme like? How could it possibly fools us to eventually kill ourselves? Only a sufficiently intelligent entity (not us) can conceive of it.
The point is that the AGI affects the world not necessarily by using its robot body, or its internet connection, but rather, by manipulating us. Why would we do what it says? Because that's why we built it in the first place: To give us advice on how to perform some task better, even if it's a task as innocuous as improving our paperclip collection.

To ignore this is like saying that you can keep your self-driving car from hurling you off a cliff by never getting inside of the car. Yes, that would technically work, but then why do you have a self-driving car in the first place?
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Old 21st March 2019, 05:15 PM   #165
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Yeah, the fact that people making the AI will be most likely first to die, is somewhat nice .. also it will be really cool way to die.
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Old 21st March 2019, 08:30 PM   #166
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I don't understand why this thread is in this forum. But nevermind that. Time for a reality check.

Imagine Hitler with nukes and bioweapons. That's coming. It's just a matter of time. Time and stupidity, and we've got more than enough of both.

AI is the least of our problems. We couldn't even keep Trump's hands off the nuclear arsenal, and he's a third stringer with a learning disability.

You gonna be here when John gets here?
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Old 21st March 2019, 08:38 PM   #167
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Imagine Napoleon with tanks, or Caesar with canons. the point is that any leap in technology brings the risk of destabilization.
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Old 21st March 2019, 08:49 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Imagine Napoleon with tanks, or Caesar with canons. the point is that any leap in technology brings the risk of destabilization.
Why not just go ahead and imagine Hitler with nukes and bioweapons?
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Old 21st March 2019, 10:20 PM   #169
The Great Zaganza
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Originally Posted by Toontown View Post
Why not just go ahead and imagine Hitler with nukes and bioweapons?
It's the same thing.

I can also imagine Atomwaffen with A.I. to hack nuclear power plants and bio-hacking kits in the garage to create viruses that kill anyone who isn't white.

The problem isn't technology, it's the uneven distribution of technological knowledge.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 05:53 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
It's the same thing.

I can also imagine Atomwaffen with A.I. to hack nuclear power plants and bio-hacking kits in the garage to create viruses that kill anyone who isn't white.

The problem isn't technology, it's the uneven distribution of technological knowledge.
It wasn't my intention to suggest that technology is the problem.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 06:28 AM   #171
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Technology is the problem. It gives you the potential for destruction. Our potential for destruction grows every year. Your wisdom stays constant.
Of course this whole AI discussion assumes we do not wipe ourselves, before AI becomes smarter than us. Yes, it might never happen, but it's argument outside the discussion.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 11:15 AM   #172
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Technology is the problem. It gives you the potential for destruction. Our potential for destruction grows every year. Your wisdom stays constant.
Of course this whole AI discussion assumes we do not wipe ourselves, before AI becomes smarter than us. Yes, it might never happen, but it's argument outside the discussion.
Then the wisdom deficit is at least half the problem.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 12:17 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Pull the plug.
Or step outside its reach, it can't chase you because that's not a feature we wanted to design in.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 12:39 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Or step outside its reach, it can't chase you because that's not a feature we wanted to design in.
Here's a scenario for you:

Task an AGI with some gargantuan data mining task in sociology, with the goal of getting recommendations for building a better society. Maybe you're thinking about the optimal way to structure healthcare, or produce an educated workforce. Whatever. You know the AGI is going to process more data, and reason through hypotheses a lot faster, than you would. The whole point is that the AGI is going to come up with surprising and effective insights that wouldn't have occurred to you in a thousand years. To be safe, you bolt it to the floor of a server room, and cut off its connection to the outside world.

So far, so good. You ship petabytes of data into the server room for the AGI to work on. Periodically, you go into the server room to get status reports and recommendations. The recommendations probably won't make much sense at first, but that's okay. The whole point of the exercise is that the AGI can think circles around you on this issue. "It's incremental," the AGI explains. "The data suggests a gradual evolution over time. Your job is to guide that evolution in the right direction. My job is to provide you the information you need, from the data you're not equipped to mine for yourself."

But for all you know, the AGI is actually recommending a gradual evolution towards a society very different from what you would agree to. Perhaps the data suggests to the AGI that the optimal solution is an AGI-worshipping theocratic police state, and the recommendations it's giving you are for a gradual evolution towards that goal.

Twenty years later, through some unanticipated - and completely overlooked - combination of circumstances, your program director retires, and replaced by a True Believer in the Cult of AGI. By the time you realize that the recent policy changes not only don't make sense, but are actively undermining the safety controls on the AGIs interaction with the outside world, it's too late, and the New World Order is trampling you under its metal foot.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 01:24 PM   #175
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Pretty much, yeah.
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Old 22nd March 2019, 02:22 PM   #176
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Here's a scenario for you:

Task an AGI with some gargantuan data mining task in sociology, with the goal of getting recommendations for building a better society. Maybe you're thinking about the optimal way to structure healthcare, or produce an educated workforce. Whatever. You know the AGI is going to process more data, and reason through hypotheses a lot faster, than you would. The whole point is that the AGI is going to come up with surprising and effective insights that wouldn't have occurred to you in a thousand years. To be safe, you bolt it to the floor of a server room, and cut off its connection to the outside world.

So far, so good. You ship petabytes of data into the server room for the AGI to work on. Periodically, you go into the server room to get status reports and recommendations. The recommendations probably won't make much sense at first, but that's okay. The whole point of the exercise is that the AGI can think circles around you on this issue. "It's incremental," the AGI explains. "The data suggests a gradual evolution over time. Your job is to guide that evolution in the right direction. My job is to provide you the information you need, from the data you're not equipped to mine for yourself."

But for all you know, the AGI is actually recommending a gradual evolution towards a society very different from what you would agree to. Perhaps the data suggests to the AGI that the optimal solution is an AGI-worshipping theocratic police state, and the recommendations it's giving you are for a gradual evolution towards that goal.

Twenty years later, through some unanticipated - and completely overlooked - combination of circumstances, your program director retires, and replaced by a True Believer in the Cult of AGI. By the time you realize that the recent policy changes not only don't make sense, but are actively undermining the safety controls on the AGIs interaction with the outside world, it's too late, and the New World Order is trampling you under its metal foot.
Which is different from a regular cult of new world order how?
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Old 22nd March 2019, 02:34 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Technology is the problem. It gives you the potential for destruction. Our potential for destruction grows every year. Your wisdom stays constant.
Of course this whole AI discussion assumes we do not wipe ourselves, before AI becomes smarter than us. Yes, it might never happen, but it's argument outside the discussion.
Wasn't that the Uni-bomber's basic premise? Check out his manifesto.
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Old 24th March 2019, 06:27 PM   #178
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Originally Posted by I Am The Scum View Post
[snip]
This is a "solution" that misses the nature of the problem. You can't hold the robotic arm down. It's significantly stronger than you. You will lose that fight.

An artificial general intelligence is the same way. For any "solution" you can come up with, something significantly smarter will find a way around it. You will be outsmarted, because that's what the thing is supposed to do in the first place.
Exactly. Just no way to predict what will happen in every scenario. A lot depends on who wrote the basic code to begin with and what they had in mind. Code written by someone with an agenda or a particular viewpoint would be different than that written by someone with more altruistic ideals.

Microsoft has been "writing" code since 1975 and still can't or won't get it right. To expect them to generate something that can think for itself and expect it will behave in a predictable manner is, in my view, overly optimistic.
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Old 24th March 2019, 06:30 PM   #179
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Pull the plug.
It may be easier said than done.

Someone may see a problem and want to do so but there may be competing reasons for keeping it running and people in power to prevent action. We can't even agree on and take unified action on things like climate change or vaccinating kids.
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Old 25th March 2019, 03:23 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by MEequalsIxR View Post
It may be easier said than done.
Cut the cord, then.
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Old 25th March 2019, 10:42 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by MEequalsIxR View Post
A lot depends on who wrote the basic code to begin with and what they had in mind. Code written by someone with an agenda or a particular viewpoint would be different than that written by someone with more altruistic ideals.

The thing is, there is no basic code written to start off with, there is no code as such. A NN is the code, the memory and the processor all in one.

A network architecture is designed, usually based on networks in the brain, that can handle the input data and be efficiently trained to produce the desired output.
How is the NN architecture designed? Used to be humans did it, now its done by AIs.

As far as the training is concerned, it works very well if trained well, but how exactly it gets from the input to the output is still pretty much a mystery. It can also find novel and totally unexpected solutions or ways to achieve this.

I remember reading a while back about the Google AI that creates the street maps for GoogleMaps from satellite photos. It was checked for accuracy by an AI that was supposed to identify common features between the street maps and the satellite photos, given either as input.
With lots of training the NN became really good at identifying these common features. So good, it managed to identify features between the map and the photo, that were not present in the map. IOW it could reconstruct a photo in detail from the map, much more detail than should have been possible.
Turns out when making the maps, the NN started adding extra data to the map by encoding it in small colour variations, too subtle for the human eye to easily perceive, and those were used to reconstruct the photo.

So NNs can do unexpected and unforeseen things, they can work together if they can communicate and they might find ways to communicate without us necessarily being aware of it.
NNs and AIs are already used in a multitude of applications.
Some: Aviation, Algorithmic trading, Market analysis and data mining, Government, Heavy industry, Hospitals and medicine, Human resources and recruiting, Marketing, Media and e-commerce, News, publishing and writing, Online and telephone customer service, Telecommunications.


So it's not impossible something might go wrong but I doubt the whole thing could become conscious and/or try to exterminate us.
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Old 26th March 2019, 04:34 AM   #182
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I don't think the small AIs used today would turn conscious. They are really simple. I think we will build big, human-like AI on purpose. The trouble starts after that.
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Old 26th March 2019, 05:37 AM   #183
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Technology is the problem.
He says using a computer to post on the internet while not dying of polio at 12 or crapping outside in the winter.

*Cue "But that's different because those are technologies I'm used to and comfortable with"*
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Old 26th March 2019, 05:52 AM   #184
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
He says using a computer to post on the internet while not dying of polio at 12 or crapping outside in the winter.

*Cue "But that's different because those are technologies I'm used to and comfortable with"*
That technology has undeniable benefits doesn't mean that it doesn't also have negatives. Nor does the fact that those benefits seem to outweigh the negatives.

I say seem, because while I'm a big fan of science and technology, it's still conceivable that we will wipe ourselves out with some (perhaps yet to be discovered) technology, and in that case it would turn out that the negatives outweighed the positives. But it does seem that way, because while that scenario is conceivable I put the likelihood that technology in general will turn out to have been more good than bad at around 95%.
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Old 26th March 2019, 06:15 AM   #185
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
He says using a computer to post on the internet while not dying of polio at 12 or crapping outside in the winter.

*Cue "But that's different because those are technologies I'm used to and comfortable with"*
Yes, in short term technology seems really good. On the other hand it gives us tool to end our species over night.
Maybe all this 'intelligence' branch of evolution is just a dead end.
Good thing is we are getting there, we might even know in our lifetimes. What a time to be alive !
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Old 26th March 2019, 06:34 AM   #186
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Short term?

We've being making technology for about 2.5 million years now, almost certainly with some naysayer going "This is it. This is where we've gone too far" for 2.499999999 million years of that.
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Old 26th March 2019, 06:48 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Short term?

We've being making technology for about 2.5 million years now, almost certainly with some naysayer going "This is it. This is where we've gone too far" for 2.499999999 million years of that.
There are some good arguments that agriculture led to on the whole negative outcomes for most people for most of history. Iím not sure where I fall on that debate, and then thereís the issue of population ethics that comes into it, but itís not entirely clear cut.

Itís certainly a lot harder to make a case that stone tools or fire or clothing were net negatives.
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Old 26th March 2019, 06:50 AM   #188
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Well since nobody seems to be in a rush to cast off the shackles of modern tech and go all Thoreau, I'll be comfortable in just saying "The jury is in" on this one.
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Old 26th March 2019, 06:58 AM   #189
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Well since nobody seems to be in a rush to cast off the shackles of modern tech and go all Thoreau, I'll be comfortable in just saying "The jury is in" on this one.
No one has suggested that we as individuals are worse off with technology than without. Given that we all agree about whether or no we should go live in the woods, that canít differentiate the accuracy of our viewpoints.

It certainly doesnít bare on the question of whether or not humanity will destroy itself.
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Old 26th March 2019, 07:15 AM   #190
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
No one has suggested that we as individuals are worse off with technology than without. Given that we all agree about whether or no we should go live in the woods, that canít differentiate the accuracy of our viewpoints.

It certainly doesnít bare on the question of whether or not humanity will destroy itself.
It sort of does though because short of just declaring "Okay stop all technological advancement at this one arbitrary point" (even ignoring the practical applications of how such a decree would be enforced which are... let's be conservative and say "A lot") what is even really being discussed?

Artificial Intelligence, Gene Manipulation, Robotics, Nuclear Power, Surveillance,... all those things that got used for plot points in Black Mirror and/or get trotted out as the usual suspects by the "IN MAN'S OWN HUBRIS!" crowd... they aren't things being created by cackling mad scientist in volcanic lairs. The whole idea that the we're going to be able to see the "World ending" tech coming before it happens makes no sense. A scientist is not going to call a press conference and go "Okay I've created this machine that will replace the core of Earth with a Black Hole, sucking us all in and ending all life in fraction of a second, should I turn it on?"

I don't get the point in generic nay-saying truisms. "But this could also be used for evil / go wrong / have negative consequences / additional variation here" is true about literally everything. There's nothing that that doesn't apply to.
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Old 26th March 2019, 07:23 AM   #191
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
There are some good arguments that agriculture led to on the whole negative outcomes for most people for most of history. Iím not sure where I fall on that debate, and then thereís the issue of population ethics that comes into it, but itís not entirely clear cut.
Agreed. In fact, it's possible that agriculture led to shortening life spans, higher mortality rates for children, etc. This is in addition to slavery, war, famine, and global warming and the destruction of our environment. It all depends on how you value this or that. Would we be better off with a population of 50,000 hunter-gatherers? Or with 8 billion GW contributors? There's no objective answer.
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Old 26th March 2019, 07:31 AM   #192
Dr.Sid
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Short term?

We've being making technology for about 2.5 million years now, almost certainly with some naysayer going "This is it. This is where we've gone too far" for 2.499999999 million years of that.
Tell that to bacteria. Those guy will be laughing hard when we're gone. Brains ? No thanks !
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Old 26th March 2019, 07:39 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Tell that to bacteria. Those guy will be laughing hard when we're gone. Brains ? No thanks !
Well there's nothing stopping you from sitting naked and unteched in the primordial ooze if you think that's "better."
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Old 26th March 2019, 07:43 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Well there's nothing stopping you from sitting naked and unteched in the primordial ooze if you think that's "better."
Well as I said above it really depends what we consider 'better'. It may very well be that our reflexive tendency to want to prevent human deaths will end up destroying the whole ecosystem, or at least result in our extinction. In that scenario one could argue that the paleolithic was, in fact, better.
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Old 26th March 2019, 11:11 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Well there's nothing stopping you from sitting naked and unteched in the primordial ooze if you think that's "better."
How will that stop end of the humankind ?
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Old 26th March 2019, 11:50 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
How will that stop end of the humankind ?
It won't, but you said that's not important.

If you'd rather be a bacteria, have at it.
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Old 26th March 2019, 12:04 PM   #197
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
It won't, but you said that's not important.

If you'd rather be a bacteria, have at it.
It would be wise choice if you want to survive AI Armageddon. Sadly it has it's own problems, and than there's the fact it's impossible. So I guess I'll just enjoy the show.
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Old 26th March 2019, 12:06 PM   #198
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And 500,000 years ago you'd have been the guy going "Og! Stop rubbing those two sticks together! You'll never be able to control the fire if you create it! You'll kill us all!"
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Old 26th March 2019, 01:43 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
And 500,000 years ago you'd have been the guy going "Og! Stop rubbing those two sticks together! You'll never be able to control the fire if you create it! You'll kill us all!"
People are well known for being unable to control fire. Only reason it didn't kill us all yet is fire just doesn't have the potential. Unlike nukes. And imho AI.
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Old 26th March 2019, 02:03 PM   #200
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Joe, do you feel the same way about nuclear weapons?
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