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25th May 2019, 03:00 AM | #2201 |
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Why do you think a No Deal Brexit is likely? In all of the scores of different votes that we saw in the HoC a couple of months back, the option that was most soundly ruled out by members across all parties, was a No Deal exit from the EU. Also ruled out of course was Mr's May's deal that she tried 3 times in various forms. But if a far more right wing pro-Brexit individual such as Boris Johnson is elected as the new PM, then any exit deal from him is certain to be cutting even more EU ties than we saw in Mr's May's deal ... so on all known previous voting in the HoC, any such more pro-Brexit deal from Boris (or any successor to Mr's May) is even more likely to fail than Mr's May's deal. The bottom line here is that the vast majority of MP's in the HoC simply do want a No Deal exit at any price. And most of them are almost as strongly united in rejecting any deal that does not keep the UK with fairly close ties to the EU (eg some form of Customs Union, and retaining various existing EU trade agreements etc.). But on another current point - the result of the EU elections are not likely to make one iota of change to that above position either. What would change it is a second public referendum, or a new government formed after a new General election. |
25th May 2019, 03:07 AM | #2202 |
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The thing about BoJo is despite being incompetent, racist, ignorant, a boor, and generally a joke amongst many people he is incredibly well known and incredibly popular.
He would walk any contest between him and Corbyn. |
25th May 2019, 03:10 AM | #2203 |
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I would go as far to say that most MP's, despite what they say in public, realise that leaving the EU is not in the best interests of the country.
That is why a lot of them keep finding excuses not to vote for May's deal. They are too scared for their seats to actually back leave in public, but will do what they can to try and keep us in the EU. Of course this is only my opinion and probably wishful thinking. I would like to think that most MP's are not as stupid as they come across to the masses. Obviously this doesn't include the tory leadership candidates. |
25th May 2019, 03:11 AM | #2204 |
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25th May 2019, 03:16 AM | #2205 |
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25th May 2019, 03:20 AM | #2206 | |||
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The story of the New Routemaster reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Homer gets to design a car.
It's kind of emblematic of brexit. I've said it before. Brexit isn't the real problem. As much as it will hurt, the UK will still be a rich country by global standards. The real problem is a dysfuncational political systems that produces crazy decisions like that. If that doesn't stop the UK will just keep spiralling down. |
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25th May 2019, 03:37 AM | #2207 |
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25th May 2019, 03:54 AM | #2208 |
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More to the point. At the moment, no deal exit is the default on Halloween. I keep wondering whether someone like BoJo will decide that it would be a ********* that he'd be stuck with, and decide on a confirmatory referendum "to unite the country". He has the brass neck to try something like that. But I doubt his self-awareness. |
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25th May 2019, 03:58 AM | #2209 |
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You are kinder to her than me.
Remember when she was the senior Tory claiming to prevent it being "the Nasty Party"? I also have no sympathy for someone who puts themselves into a corner for political gain by promising something that is almost logically as well as practically impossible. |
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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25th May 2019, 04:09 AM | #2210 |
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Coincidentally, here is some news from the BBC this morning about the MP's who have so far put themselves forward as Mr's May's successor, and where they are immediately clashing over ideas of No Deal Brexit -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48403705 Incidentally in case some people did not notice (eg people outside the UK) – on Thursday 23rd Andrea Leadsom (a member of Mr's May's cabinet) added to Mr's May's troubles by handing her a resignation letter, and then just 24 hours latter Mrs' May announced her resignation, and almost instantly Mrs Leadsom announced that she now wanted to be PM instead of Mr's May. That may not be entirely surprising in UK politics. But that does look rather opportunist and like calculated plotting to me, and I just wonder what most of these Conservative MP's would actually be like as your next door neighbours if you happened to live next to them … would they be normal helpful decent people, or would they be a complete nightmare of opportunism & self interest. |
25th May 2019, 06:05 AM | #2211 |
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True, he took on all the wide-ranging benefits inherited from Ken Livingstone who love him or hate him and his Sarf Lunnon twang, was indeed a transport expert and genius. However, BoJo was innovative and broadly imaginative in his own way. All night tube lines for example.
What has Saddiq Khan done about knife crime? Eh? |
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25th May 2019, 06:10 AM | #2212 |
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25th May 2019, 06:19 AM | #2213 |
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MPs do have a responsiblity to run the country and make the laws. Whilst Joe Bloggs in the BBC Question Time audience can spout off red-faced jabbing a finger about, '17.4 million voted to leave, do it now, just get out, there's the WTO', the government does have a responsibility to act in the country's best interest. If you are an MP and you know from expert opinion that a no-deal would trigger a recession worse than in 2008 and have been informed by intelligence services there will be likely riots and looting over food queues, crime and lawlessness, you, too, would be cautious unless you are a raging psychopath, which unfortunately, some politicians seem to be. And sorry, I do think Theresa May had this trait.
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25th May 2019, 06:47 AM | #2214 |
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25th May 2019, 07:08 AM | #2215 |
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So I've started a blog about my writing. Check it out at: http://fourth-planet-problem.blogspot.com/ And my first book is on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077W322FX |
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25th May 2019, 09:19 AM | #2216 |
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25th May 2019, 10:04 AM | #2217 |
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25th May 2019, 11:34 AM | #2218 |
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So I've started a blog about my writing. Check it out at: http://fourth-planet-problem.blogspot.com/ And my first book is on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077W322FX |
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25th May 2019, 11:43 AM | #2219 |
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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25th May 2019, 11:44 AM | #2220 |
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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25th May 2019, 12:57 PM | #2221 |
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https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics.../Boris_Johnson
He is the most popular politician in the UK overall and in every sub category except millenials. |
25th May 2019, 01:20 PM | #2222 |
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So the Trump wannabe is the favorite.
Damn, I was hopine it would be Rees Mogg. The guy is a living stereotype of the obnoxious upper class Brit, who wants to go back to the days when the inferior classes doffed their caps to their master. To us Yanks, he is a living reminder of why we declared our independence in the first place. |
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26th May 2019, 02:19 AM | #2223 |
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Not sure I picked it up properly, but I thought I just heard Dominic Raab say on the BBC that if Parliament legislated for a further extension he would ignore it.
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26th May 2019, 02:27 AM | #2224 |
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26th May 2019, 02:57 AM | #2225 |
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Following an election the leader of the party with most MPs becomes Prime Minister. If that party changes leader mid term the new leader automatically becomes PM. Sometimes that new leader will call an election, but they are under no obligation to do so.
ETA: I'm simplifying, it's more complicated if no party has a majority, but the point is that's it's whoever ends up in a particular position, not a specifically named person, who becomes PM, and the person in that position may change without an election. |
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26th May 2019, 05:20 AM | #2226 |
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26th May 2019, 05:41 AM | #2227 |
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26th May 2019, 05:51 AM | #2228 |
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26th May 2019, 06:13 AM | #2229 |
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I would like a General Election anyway.
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26th May 2019, 06:23 AM | #2230 |
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If the new PM is a no-deal hardline Brexit extremist as seems likely then morally they really should go back to the people and hold a GE. But they won't.
So the future of the country is going to be decided by 100,000 Tory members with an average age of 72 and that is probably 99% white. |
26th May 2019, 06:47 AM | #2231 |
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Whichever candidates the Tory party members eventually get to choose between, whichever is the most hardline Leaver will win. I mean, when you put the decision into the hands of just about the most reactionary, narrow minded people imaginable, at a time when they are about as calm and contemplative as a jar of wasps you've been shaking for 3 years, the outcome should not be hard to predict.
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26th May 2019, 08:02 AM | #2232 |
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Not exactly an innovation, given that there were aspirations to run an over-night service since before the office of Mayor of London even existed, and they didn't start until five months after he left it, anyway. General opinion in Underground circles is that it happen despite Johnson, not thanks to him.
Quote:
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26th May 2019, 09:30 AM | #2233 |
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It's kinda of an irrational thought. The Brexit means that there is no possibility for the European Union to survive. Other countries will leave as well. There is no chance that there will be a European Army. There is no chance that all these countries stay united as one.
The European Union will destroy itself. |
26th May 2019, 09:51 AM | #2234 |
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Not really. In that case there is a very clear, established succession: President, vice (it's even in the name) president, speaker of the house etc etc. The president is specifically elected.
I'm baffled because in so many other countries the government's life is tied to the prime minister. If the prime minister falls, the government falls and a general election is needed. |
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26th May 2019, 09:56 AM | #2235 |
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I know this is a late response but I've gotten behind on my Brexit reading.
Consider this from a USA perspective. The period when any UK/USA negotiations would take place would smack dab in the middle of the USA presidential election campaign. This would color all political reactions to trade talks. Trump, in particular, thinking (ok, ok, I know. Just accept the idea for the sake of the discussion) he's the world's greatest deal-maker will be pushing for some spectacular break through in order to have something to show what a great president he is. Conversely, the Democrats will assert that any deal he negotiates will be bad for America and shoot it down during campaigns and in the halls of Congress. Then, assuming Dump loses, a new Administration will have to be sworn in and get its own house in order before sinking its teeth in foreign affairs. In this scenario, it would take at least two years for negotiations to begin, much less come to a conclusion that is acceptable on both sides of the pond. In my relative ignorance of UK politics I think such a delay would make a no-deal Brexit even worse than it might otherwise be. |
26th May 2019, 09:57 AM | #2236 |
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26th May 2019, 11:30 AM | #2237 |
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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26th May 2019, 11:30 AM | #2238 |
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26th May 2019, 12:44 PM | #2239 |
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If Boris does become PM then I think he will have even less success than Mrs May when threatening parliament with a No Deal exit ... I think he has far more enemies inside the Conservative party than Mrs May had (and he probably has far fewer friends amongst MP's from any of the other parties). And just on the point of Boris being a favourite to win a General Election against Jeremy Corbyn – I think Boris can only win that by attracting all the electorate who are apparently ready almost to die in order to get the UK out of the EU … so he may win by gaining all those votes, but otherwise I'm mindful of how Theresa May called a General election when the Conservatives had a huge lead in the polls and when almost all political correspondents and experts were saying Corbyn was highly unattractive to UK voters … and that turned out the complete opposite, with Conservatives losing a big majority and Corbyn doing massively better than predicted. |
26th May 2019, 12:50 PM | #2240 |
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