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26th May 2019, 01:00 PM | #2241 |
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But he may not need to do much. it's entirely possible that Boris being Boris there is some scandal lurking in the wings. Johnson is popular in a 'oh what's he done now?' sort of way with the public, when it comes down to actually thinking he's a competent politician not so much.
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26th May 2019, 01:28 PM | #2242 |
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Boris is the most popular politician in the UK. Of course he would win against Corbyn.
People seem to project their own thoughts and opinions onto the population. The fact you can see his flaws means nothing. He is a star. He is Farage squared. People don't care about competence or policy or details like not causing a national crisis. They care about how often you are on TV. |
26th May 2019, 02:19 PM | #2243 |
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Northeast result is 2 Brexit 1 Lab 1 Lib Dem I think.
Tories were 6th |
26th May 2019, 02:31 PM | #2244 |
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Renfrewshire... SNP 42%
So far SNP is at 39% in Scotland. Labour in 5th |
26th May 2019, 02:44 PM | #2245 |
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Yes, SNP thus far wiping the floor with the Brexit Party.
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26th May 2019, 02:46 PM | #2246 |
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East of England as 3 BRX 2 LD 1 Green and 1 Tory
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26th May 2019, 02:56 PM | #2247 |
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Tories 5th in London
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26th May 2019, 03:41 PM | #2248 |
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Anne Widdecombe got elected. Bye region.
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27th May 2019, 12:11 AM | #2249 |
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Yup. Furthermore, Theresa May will quit in two weeks, then the new PM will have to be chosen, then Parliament will enter recess period and UK will only be able to run things further in September. BJ or whomever wins will have two months to attempt to get a proper deal with EU, fail, decide between begging for another extension or implementing the promised no-deal Brexit crisis.
With the recent relative win of the idiotic Brexit party, EU will be less inclined to offer another extension. What would be the point? Obnoxious brats whose manifesto is obstructionism and sabotage of the EU would be out of European parliament and UK still hasn't gone through the Brexit unicorns. How to interpret the British European elections, my view: UKIP was wiped out and went from 24 seats to 0. Brexit party went from 0 (or 24) to 29 seats -> net gain of five (5) seats for hard Brexit Labour went from 20 seats to 10 -> "creative ambiguity" has been hammered, seats lost to Brexit and Bremain Tories went from 19 seats to 4 -> promised unicorns failed in all aspects, seats lost to Brexit and Bremain Liberal democrats went from 1 seat to 16 -> net gain of fifteen (15) seats for Bremain Greens went from 3 seats to 7 -> net gain of four (4) seats for Bremain SNP went from 2 seats to 3 -> net gain of one (1) seat for Bremain Excluding Labour and Tories you have 27 seats for Bremain versus 29 for No-Deal Brexit, with 14 seats whose majority wants Brexit, but not a No-Deal Brexit, or else remain loyal with the party. Many Labour voters are Bremainers too, they view Labour as the vessel of choice still for some odd reason. The country is still split down the middle on whether or not to embark on unprecendented constitutional change. A large minority wants it, come hell or high water, but it's clear there is no majority and no democratic mandate for a No-Deal Brexit. But Tories got wiped out by Brexit party, meaning they might pursue the strategy all the same. The only sensible thing that could be done now is to grant Corbyn his dying wish and force a new General Election. I say a dying wish because if UK is to be pulled from the brink, it needs to be one. McHrozni |
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27th May 2019, 12:21 AM | #2250 |
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27th May 2019, 12:44 AM | #2251 |
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27th May 2019, 01:02 AM | #2252 |
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There are some people who will vote for a particular party come hell or high water, regardless of their policies. I cannot imagine my late mother voting for any party other than Labour and I cannot imagine her not voting. The two major parties rely quite a lot on that kind of blind party loyalty IMO.
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27th May 2019, 01:08 AM | #2253 |
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IMO it was a coalition of Momentum (who want a return to the Labour Party of the 1970's) and millennials (who saw him on stage at Glastonbury and thought/think he is cool) that got him across the line.
The latter have now got bored and moved on to other interests leaving the Labour Party in the hands of the former. Dissenters will be driven out of the party as quickly as possible and will be rendered "unpeople" by the remaining members (look at the outpouring of vitriol towards poor old Baldrick). I'm also intrigued at how blinded to fact some Labour Party members are. On another board there are a group who are Pro-Corbyn and Pro-Remain who somehow insist that Jeremy Corbyn is not pro-Brexit and the real problem isn't that we're going to crash out of the EU, but rather the neo-liberal policies promoted by the EU. |
27th May 2019, 01:09 AM | #2254 |
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So forgetting seats and looking at votes, votes for clear remain parties 40 odd percent, votes for clear Brexit around 34 percent. Overall turnout about 37%.
But apparently that means we must hurtle towards a no deal brexit |
27th May 2019, 01:12 AM | #2255 |
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Unfortunately a Boris-led Conservative Party would likely sweep to victory* and have a remit to implement their no-deal Brexit.
* - they'll get 30% or thereabouts of the votes but because a lot of Labour votes will leak to pro-Remain parties it'll split the anti no-deal vote (a "feature" of the first-past-the-post system) and they'll get 60% of the seats. |
27th May 2019, 01:14 AM | #2256 |
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Yes, because the two major parties in Westminster are still committed to delivering Brexit and they know that this is a one time only opportunity. Jeremy Corbyn wants the workers' Utopia that will inevitably follow Brexit and the Tories want to be able to buy pounds of apples again
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27th May 2019, 01:14 AM | #2257 |
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At least Corbyn is now saying we need a second referendum (or a general election) albeit a bit bloody late.
Can't see Europe granting another extension with all those UKIP MEPs. I wouldn't in their shoes - I'd be thoroughly sick of us, jumped up, arrogant, obnoxious ***** as we are. And Ann Widdicombe got elected FFS - what the **** is wrong with people!? |
27th May 2019, 01:20 AM | #2258 |
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As noted previously, 75% of those intending to vote Labour at this election were polling as pro-Remain, having already been shorn of defections to other parties as per their positions. The Labour rump is clearly pro-Remain, not a "majority [that] wants Brexit..." It is also the case that some Labour candidates who are now MEPs openly campaigned as Remain.
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27th May 2019, 01:20 AM | #2259 |
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The trouble is, that it's too obvious when he's lying - that's why his support for Remain was so unconvincing. It's clear that Jeremy Corbyn wants to be PM and that he wants Brexit. I think people can tell that calls for a general election are a transparent attempt to become PM and that calls for a second referendum are reluctant.
I agree, extensions are only useful if they might conceivably lead to a resolution - can't see that happening any time soon. Name recognition, they liked her on Strictly Same reason Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader (thanks Glastonbury ) and Boris Johnson is very likely to be our next PM. |
27th May 2019, 01:27 AM | #2260 |
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That is indeed a danger to the UK, particularily the "U" part.
Still, suppose the election was announced and Corbyn died. A new leader is chosen two months before the election and adopts an unabigious "Bremain" platform. That could change things. With Labour under Corbyn, yes, you are indeed correct. Someone hire a faceless man already. McHrozni |
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27th May 2019, 01:30 AM | #2261 |
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He's been yapping about a new general election for over a year now, and a referendum if, and only IF, a new GE can't be achieved. His stance is moronic and I don't sue that word lightly. Even if got his election and Labour won (which is not at all assured), he'd be in the exact same position as Theresa May - having promised unicorns and able to deliver donkeys made of feces.
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27th May 2019, 01:31 AM | #2262 |
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Put the various parties together depending on their policy regarding leave and remain and there is still a pretty even split across the whole of the UK, with Scotland very much in favour of remain.
If there was another referendum, I think it would be a close result and suspect it would still be leave. I think we have to leave, the issue is hard or soft Brexit. If you call The Brexit Party and UKIP hard and say 50% of the Tories and 25% of Labour are also hard leave, then there is a clear majority for a hard Brexit. |
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27th May 2019, 01:43 AM | #2263 |
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I think he probably is rather unappealing. But the party he leads is probably still more appealing than the Conservative party (whether it has Boris as it's leaders or anyone else as it's new leader) ... that's exactly what happened in the last General election, and as we have now seen with Mrs May having to resign as PM and with the results of last nights EU votes the Conservative party has suffered a massive loss of public/voter confidence. |
27th May 2019, 01:53 AM | #2264 |
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Yeah; that was not the question or the point though. The question was whether or not Boris would be able to force a No Deal exit through parliament. And what I said about that was - I think Boris has too many enemies even within the Conservative party (let alone across all opposition MP's in the HoC) to be able to persuade more than 50% of the HoC to back him in a No Deal exit. Remember; by law this has to be voted through by a majority of MP's in the HoC. |
27th May 2019, 01:55 AM | #2265 |
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That's an argument for Bremain.
Quote:
Brexit party 31.6% of total Tory 9.1% of total, 4.6% for hard Brexit Labour 14.1% of total vote, 3.5% for hard Brexit (31.6+4.6+3.5)% = 39.7% for hard Brexit. For Bremain: LibDem 20.3% Green 12.1% SNP 3.6% Plus half of Labours' 14.1% vote, I'll put that 7% for Bremain (20.3+12.1+3.6+7)%=43% for Bremain Nope. The elections indicate there is more support for No Brexit than for No-Deal Brexit. Even without Labour, Bremainers and hard Brexitards are neck and neck with 39.7% to 36%, with just under 25% of the electorate wanting a Brexit, but not No Deal Brexit. No Deal Brexit has no popular mandate, no democratic mandate and no support in Parliament. It is a complete non-starter from a democratic viewpoint. The fact a change this huge, this damaging and this unpopular is on the table at all demonstrates the painful democratic deficit in the UK. Of course there is an easy remedy. Put No Deal Brexit vs No Brexit on a referendum, informing the electorate what either means and roll the dice. Make the referendum legally binding too, and prohibit from question being reopened again for another 10 years. That way whatever happens has a democratic mandate (of sorts) behind it. McHrozni |
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27th May 2019, 02:09 AM | #2266 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Sorry, but you're absolutely wrong.
You could give Hard Leave all the Tory votes, and Remain would still be ahead. |
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27th May 2019, 02:11 AM | #2267 |
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I meant the majority for hard Brexit is within those who support Brexit. Of Brexit supporters, the majority is for hard.
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27th May 2019, 02:12 AM | #2268 |
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I think what we saw as the result of the EU votes last night (ie in the UK), was that people voted almost entirely just to show their views on Brexit. I don't suppose any of the people who voted for Nigel Farage's Brexit party did that because they are actually interested in what MP's actually do in the European parliament – it was just entirely a show of angry strength in favour of Brexit.
And similarly, the Lib Dem's and some other parties got many more votes than they normally would have done in any normal election, because they had a clear policy against Brexit and people voted tactically for them as a way of showing opposition to Fargae and Brexit. Farage is now saying that if he has enough time to organise it, then his Brexit Party would contest a General Election. And on the basis of last nights results, that would look worrying like Farage and his party could even win a General Election in the UK … which was something totally unthinkable in Britain even a few months ago. Of course voting might be very different in a General Election. But it's hard to escape the likely fact that a huge number of people in the UK will now vote for Brexit in any sort of election … all other issues will be irrelevant for them, and they will just vote for Farage or whoever it is that's promising a hard-line Brexit. |
27th May 2019, 02:17 AM | #2269 |
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The vote shows that there is still a very even split between Leave and Remain. Then, within the Leave vote, the majority want to go now with no deal, rather than continue to try and negotiate a soft Brexit.
I am frankly saddened and amazed at the size of vote for a hard brexit, despite all we know about the consequences of such. It is many turkeys voting for Christmas. Maybe those people, who dislike the EU parliament with a passion and hate being subject to its rules, can now understand the feeling many Scots have about Westminster. |
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27th May 2019, 02:19 AM | #2270 |
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27th May 2019, 02:23 AM | #2271 |
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27th May 2019, 03:00 AM | #2272 |
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27th May 2019, 03:23 AM | #2273 |
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He's saying that Brexit has a majority of the electorate (which is disputable, they might or might not have a plurality) and that a majority of the electorate that supports Brexit, supports a No-Deal Brexit.
I believe this latter claim. Only a small number of Brexiteers support any form of soft Brexit. This is understandable, since any and all forms of a soft Brexit will be inherently worse than Bremain. That said, a larger portion of the electorate supports Bremain than no deal Brexit. Brexiteer logic only works if you apply it in two stages: Brexit yes/no, plurality rules; if Brexit yes then the plurality of the sort of Brexit rules, using only the electorate that supports Brexit in the first place. It's a deeply flawed, antidemocratic idea, but that's what he's saying. McHrozni |
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27th May 2019, 03:49 AM | #2274 |
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It's a false distinction, though. We clearly have the parties that campaigned on an anti-Brexit ticket, i.e. Lib-Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru, and Change UK (plus Sinn Fein). Then there are the openly Hard Brexit UKIP and Brexit Ltd. (plus DUP). In the middle are the Conservative and Labour, who are "officially" pro-Brexit, but whose supporters are split. Nessie even acknowledged that by suggesting a 50/50 and 25/75 split for Hard Brexit/Remain. Saying "most of those who support Leave want No Deal" is meaningless because is that's predicated on the fiction of all Labour and Conservative voters supporting Leave because that's the official party line, even when they clearly don't.
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27th May 2019, 04:14 AM | #2275 |
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27th May 2019, 04:19 AM | #2276 |
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Slight flaw in assumption: that Labour party voters are mostly remainers. OK, so although some may be against - or even most - a 'hard Brexit', fact is, most working class people (labour voters) are anti-EU. Can't just assume '75% are remainers', although that might be true in London and the North West, which has a large Irish population (as opposed to the North East, which is very strongly hard Brexit). |
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27th May 2019, 04:20 AM | #2277 |
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27th May 2019, 04:24 AM | #2278 |
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I'm not surprised. The Brexit Party is largely a media invention. Without the breath of publicity from BBC, DAILY EXPRESS, DAILY MAIL etc, it wouldn't have stood a chance. It was then social media led. Rather like the worst cringeworthy act on the X-Factor (think Wagner) or Strictly Come Dancing (think two-left-feet John Sargeant) the public climbed on the bandwagon to vote them in week after week. The same thing happened here with the Brexit Party. Nothing but a protest vote. A typically British backlash.
DAILY MAIL until recently were hard Brexit and anti-Theresa May backstop. New owner comes in: suddenly it's pro-May Withdrawal Ageement Bill, urging MPs to back it. It now headlines Farage and the Brexit Party as the new saviour. It is just rubbing our faces in how much influence it has in the elections in which way the vote goes. |
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27th May 2019, 04:46 AM | #2279 |
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What makes you think this ?
In the referendum, Labour split 64/36 in favour of Remain and subsequent polls have shown that the support for Remain within the Labour Party has grown. I suppose that you could argue that it's just the middle-class "champagne Socialists" who are in favour of Remain and that the 25% or so of Labour supporters who are in favour of Brexit are a majority of the working class members and supporters but you's need to show your workings. Even in the North East, a majority of Labour voters were in favour of Remain. |
27th May 2019, 04:55 AM | #2280 |
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On the contrary, the YouGov/Times poll of 12-16 May showed that of those intending to vote Labour on Thursday, 75% backed Remain, and in fact the same percentage had previously voted that way at the Referendum. Labour voters who backed a Hard Leave were already intending to vote Brexit Ltd or UKIP, but they were only around 6% of those who intended to vote Labour at the next General Election; in contrast around 25% intended to vote for the Lib-Dems, Greens, Change UK, SNP, or Plaid Cymru on Thursday.
The bottom line is that the fear of Labour losing support in majority Leave areas appears to be totally false, because most of the people in those constituencies who voted Leave had never voted for Labour previously, anyway. The idea that Labour party voters are mostly Leavers is a complete myth. |
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