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27th May 2019, 04:56 AM | #2281 |
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What the ruling classes really think of the Brexit Party.
Whilst the tabloids are crowing in the most vulgar terms 'deliver Brexit now', it is always useful to turn to the FINANCIAL TIMES for what the British establishment/capitalists think. We see that they are not impressed with the Brexit Party at all. Their main headline is 'EU turnout is up' and a large piece on remainer Philip Hammond warning against a no-deal Brexit. No sign of our Nigel anywhere. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-48417214 |
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27th May 2019, 04:57 AM | #2282 |
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27th May 2019, 05:00 AM | #2283 |
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who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
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27th May 2019, 05:03 AM | #2284 |
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27th May 2019, 05:09 AM | #2285 |
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Voters in the People's Republic of Islington - and indeed, Camden - are protesting against the Labour leadership's failure to offer a second referendum.
There is little doubt North London labour voters are strong remainers. Not typical of Labour voters as a whole. (Unionised workers who want to keep out cheaper East European labour and thus anti-remain.) |
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27th May 2019, 05:12 AM | #2286 |
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27th May 2019, 05:13 AM | #2287 |
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27th May 2019, 05:18 AM | #2288 |
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27th May 2019, 06:34 AM | #2289 |
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Actually two Labour and two Brexit
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27th May 2019, 06:38 AM | #2290 |
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27th May 2019, 06:56 AM | #2291 |
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Jeremy Corbyn has been anti-EU his entire career which is why his toeing the party line over supporting the Remain campaign came across as being so false. His pro-Brexit stance is not motivated by keeping the workers or unions on side - not least because many of the major unions are por-Remain
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27th May 2019, 07:47 AM | #2292 |
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Therein lies the paradox. Corbyn is anti-capitalist. Most labour voters are not.
ETA to expand on this most socialists see the EU as a union of capitalists determined to (a) bring down the price of labour and raw materials (b) thereby maximise profits for the capitalist employers and corporations. Corbyn is anti-EU as he sees British workers' wages undermined by the appearance of cheap labour from East Europe. Hence his insistence in drawing up protection for workers rights after Brexit, which Theresa May had somehow omitted to include. |
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27th May 2019, 07:53 AM | #2293 |
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27th May 2019, 10:41 AM | #2294 |
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Yes. Every step of the way he's given grudging lip service to Labour's official policy while doing everything in his power to undermine it. His invisibility during the referendum, his refusal to endorse a second referendum or indeed to leap on the many flaws in the conduct of the original referendum is all of a piece with someone willing to let Brexit go ahead while trying to let the Tories take the blame. He must know that the Labour MPs and members are weighted in favour of Remain or he would have tried to change party policy by now.
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27th May 2019, 11:01 AM | #2295 |
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27th May 2019, 11:08 AM | #2296 |
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There are various splits, this one has 40.4% remain, 34.9% hard brexit and then 23.2% Con/Lab.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...esults-tell-us The soft brexit vote is primarily within the 23.2% Con/Lab vote. There will also be some who are either leave or remain, but who chose to vote for their preferred party. I think there may be enough leavers who voted Con/Lab to make a second referendum too close to call. You need to add the hard and soft brexit vote to see what the leave vote is. |
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27th May 2019, 11:45 AM | #2297 |
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The problem there is the assumption that people currently apparently backing a Deal/Soft Brexit would still choose Leave in another in/out referendum, even assuming they did that last time around. The whole point about them wanting a deal is that they recognise - just as much as Remainers - that a No Deal Brexit will be detrimental to the country. Given a choice between No Deal and Remain, many will chose the latter.
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27th May 2019, 12:04 PM | #2298 |
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I was hoping that with all the vastly improved knowledge of the EU and what is likely to happen if we leave (under various scenarios), that support for leave parties would collapse and there would be a clear majority voting for remain parties.
That has not happened. If there was another referendum there would not be a clear majority. I think that means we should accept the original referendum and just get on with leaving. My preference would be a deal, but that has proved impossible to achieve. I think that means we should just leave with no deal and then try to negotiate a new relationship with the EU. I feel very sorry for those who will suffer most, particularly those who will likely lose their jobs. But, since that suffering has not been enough to cause a shift to a clear majority for remaining, I think democracy has to prevail so as to be preserved. |
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27th May 2019, 12:47 PM | #2299 |
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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27th May 2019, 12:52 PM | #2300 |
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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27th May 2019, 12:53 PM | #2301 |
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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27th May 2019, 03:05 PM | #2302 |
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we had 44 Brexit supporting MEPs last week and only 9 Remain. We now have 32 Brexit and 28 Remain. Stop spreading their victory propaganda.
They lost 12 Seats. We gained 21. |
27th May 2019, 04:33 PM | #2303 |
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"Faith without doubt leads to moral arrogance, the eternal pratfall of the religiously convinced" - Joe Klein, Time magazine "The fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." - Carl Sagan |
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27th May 2019, 10:48 PM | #2304 |
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This is not something that should decided in a debate full of speculation. If the will of the electorate is unclear on a major constitutional question such as this one the proper way is to run a referendum.
Don't get me wrong, I love to speculate myself. But this is not a question that should be decided based on speculation. McHrozni |
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28th May 2019, 12:01 AM | #2305 |
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Pretty much all the analysis says the same: the country is split down the middle, just over 40% want Brexit, come hell or high water while another 40% or so want to remain in the EU, the rest think there are other questions too that merit attention.
Any serious country would decide against a major constitutional change that has the support of just barely half the electorate that bothers to consider the question. Sadly Britain has been a joke for quite a while now. The only sensible ways out that I see are: 1. Norway+ style Brexit; if Farage et.al. want to leave Single market and Customs union they'll need to campaign for it and win a referendum to leave those - fairly, with no overspending and against a competent campaign calling out their lies. 2. Another referendum, legally binding and with a requirement that losers accept the result and bury the question for at least 20 years. Neither is likely to happen any time soon, but any other solution will be temporary in nature. Heck, option 1 may not be stable either and I really don't see mr.Democracy-only-works-when-losers-accept-the-result accepting a result he dislikes. He said so before the referendum, but changed the tune since. There is a nuclear option - No deal Brexit, following the catastrophic crisis for 6-12 months a new deal with EU is signed. It is similar to Norway+, but is more expensive for UK and came at a price of wiping out British manufaturing and services exports. That would be stable, probably, but the price may not be worth paying. McHrozni |
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28th May 2019, 12:16 AM | #2306 |
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Sadly, what I think will happen is that, because the Conservatives will still be in charge and they will have elected a no-deal supporting leader, the UK will crash out of the EU with no-deal. Furthermore, the so called "divorce deal" will be repudiated and the Conservatives will claim a £40bn victory for Brexit.
Unfortunately this will mean that post-Brexit negotiations with the EU will start with a great deal of ill-feeling on both sides. The UK will continue to pursue a "unicorns and rainbows" trade deal in which we want all the benefits of EU membership but none of the responsibilities. The EU on the other hand will continue to insist that without the four freedoms being recognised, EEA membership is impossible and that if the UK insists on striking separate trade deals with EU partners, Customs Union membership is also off the cards. The negotiations start to drag on for years. Meanwhile, the UK economy has taken a major hit and the £40bn "Brexit bonus" is long spent. The UK is desperate for a trade deal and goes cap in hand to the US. A trade deal is relatively quickly agreed and is hailed a triumph and a boon for the UK economy. It quickly becomes clear that this is not the case, and although it makes it much easier for US companies to export to the UK, and for US companies to sell into the NHS, exporting to the US if anything becomes more difficult. |
28th May 2019, 12:31 AM | #2307 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Before the 2019 elections:
Pro-Brexit:
Pro-Remain:
After... Pro-Brexit:
Pro-Remain:
Depends on how you view the Labour Party... |
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28th May 2019, 12:51 AM | #2308 |
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Possible, but given the circumstance ... not so much. It will be September before any of this becomes relevant, by that time the election season in USA will be running hot. Trump lacks skilled people pretty much by default and what remains at the bottom of the barrell will be organizing the campaign. Brexit UK has the same issue, but they'll be dealing with the no deal Brexit fallout too.
This fallout is not mere "queues at the border", but goes by the names of "divestment", "fall of orders" and "relocating business to mainland Europe". A trade deal with USA solves exactly zero of those. Reorientating towards the US is theoretically possible, but in practice it would take a generation at least and make UK far poorer. Plus Pelosi already stated the Congress will demand a solution to the Irish question before ratifying anything, so you need a deal with EU first anyway. McHrozni |
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28th May 2019, 12:58 AM | #2309 |
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Regarding timing, I'm thinking 2022 or afterwards for the panic deal with the US.
As you point out, 2019 is pretty much used up. IMO 2020 will be spent putting out major economic fires, there'll be no capacity for trade negotiations. 2021/2022 will be spent trying to strike some kind of deal with the EU - the biggest problem being that the UK doesn't know what it wants but then again it lacks the skilled negotiators to go about getting it. There may be talks in parallel with the US but the firesale won't come about until it becomes clear that the EU are not going to roll over. edited to add.... You're right that a deal with the US will do little or nothing to improve the UK's position. The EU will continue to be the UK's largest trading partner, regardless of the terms, just because of physical proximity. Of course the Breixiteers don't care about any of this because the post-Brexit economic crisis will be a feature, not a bug and/or they really are deluded enough to think that the UK will not only emerge unscathed from a no-deal Brexit, it will actually be in better economic shape. |
28th May 2019, 01:05 AM | #2310 |
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28th May 2019, 01:10 AM | #2311 |
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28th May 2019, 01:22 AM | #2312 |
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The lust for power in Farage is palpable and genuinely frightening.
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28th May 2019, 01:30 AM | #2313 |
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28th May 2019, 01:32 AM | #2314 |
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Or is it money?
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28th May 2019, 01:47 AM | #2316 |
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Farage is tipping his party as the Govt and himself as PM after the next General Election.
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28th May 2019, 01:57 AM | #2317 |
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28th May 2019, 02:19 AM | #2318 |
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28th May 2019, 02:37 AM | #2319 |
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28th May 2019, 03:11 AM | #2320 |
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