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28th May 2019, 03:17 AM | #2321 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I'm not sure that giving the EU the excuse to say that the UK is walking away from its current financial obligations is the best way to start negotiating a new trade deal with them.
Also, I think that £40bn will be a drop in the bucket compared to the full cost of mitigating the effects of a no-deal Brexit for the government, let alone for the economy as a whole. |
28th May 2019, 03:23 AM | #2322 |
Penultimate Amazing
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To be honest, although manufacturing grabs a lot of the headlines, it's not a huge sector for the economy as a whole. A significant proportion of what is classified as manufacturing will remain in the UK post-Brexit in any case and a lot of the cheap imports aren't manufactured here in any case.
IMO it's the service sector, and in particular financial services, which will take a battering and as it accounts for 80% of GDP the damage will be greater. It also has a positive balance of payments. |
28th May 2019, 03:43 AM | #2323 |
Muse
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I agree the manufacturing industry is a relatively small percentage of our GDP, but we have already seen the scaling down of car manufacturing, partly due to the EU's trade deal with Japan, cutting of diesel production and the global slowing of the car industry. If we lose access to our biggest market, I can see many more firms pulling their manufacturing plants from the UK.
If we plunge into a no deal scenario and if this leads to FTA's with countries such as China and the USA, I can't see these countries looking to import more than they export to us. |
28th May 2019, 03:53 AM | #2324 |
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28th May 2019, 04:17 AM | #2325 |
Penultimate Amazing
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True, but it's not just UK, it's USA too. The year 2020 will be hot, there will be Democrat primaries and time and energy of the administration and other high-ranking officials will be consumed to attacking candidates they percieve as a threat. There may well be a contested Republican primary, using up more time and energy attacking that. There will be an election in November, much is riding on that - probably no less than freedom of POTUS, perhaps even the country. House of Representatives will be in no mood to support the president in his endavours either.
Striking a major trade deal in record time under those circumstances would require quantum tunneling.
Quote:
If not the Tories risk that greatest of all evils: a Labour government. If a no deal Brexit crisis occurs, UK has to deal with EU first, while in a crisis and has no cards left to play.
Quote:
What you get is stifled consumption in UK, an increase of spending on British products (because others aren't as readily available), while your exports don't suffer nearly as much. It's still dumb to think this would last more than a few weeks, EU has all sorts of tools to remedy the situation. But Brexiteers have been assuming EU will do what they wish it did this entire time, it's not a stretch to think their opinion is unchanged and simply went from "they'll beg us for a deal" to "they'll be like a deer in the headlights". There is logic behind the reasoning, if the premise of ineffective EU was correct there would be grounds to believe that could be true to a sufficient extent to make no deal Brexit an interesting exercise in mercantilism. The only premise I make is that Brexiteers still believe their own anti-EU propaganda. That's hardly a stretch. Thoughts? McHrozni |
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28th May 2019, 04:30 AM | #2326 |
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28th May 2019, 04:51 AM | #2327 |
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Yep.
"£40 billion for the NHS!" Except, of course, if we crashed out at the end of October then that 40 billion will have all been used up before Christmas fighting the aforementioned fires. People really don't realise how little 40 billion actually is. |
28th May 2019, 05:51 AM | #2328 |
puzzler
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Really? You're claiming that ALL Labour and Conservative MEPs elected in 2014 were Pro-Brexit? If that's the case why did both those parties campaign in favour of Remain two years later in the 2016 referendum? If you were honest, you'd move most of those 39 seats over to your Pro-Remain table - but that would destroy your argument, so I don't expect you'll do that. |
28th May 2019, 06:04 AM | #2329 |
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Given we are told that anyone voting Lab or Tory at the last G.E. was voting for a pro brexit party and was supporting brexit it is far less of a leap to suggest that MEPs of those parties followed their party line.
Out of interest did to get your acknowledgement and apology or was promising not to post again another brexiteer lie? |
28th May 2019, 08:41 AM | #2330 |
Orthogonal Vector
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28th May 2019, 09:35 AM | #2331 |
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I understand that "no-dealers" in the UK would call the EU's bluff on the Irish border issue, as in "We ain't gonna put one up, do what you like".
That bit of leverage is the thing most likely to cause the EU to grant additional concessions to avoid no deal (perhaps the threat of repudiating the financial settlement is likely to as well). Not that either of them will. |
28th May 2019, 11:05 AM | #2332 |
Orthogonal Vector
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Yep so free open borders to trade with the EU, you just need to tranship everything through the Republic of Ireland.
Seriously does anyone who wants to take back the borders actually understand the first thing about them? And are they getting enough ferries from somewhere to instead of going just across the channel go to ireland first then into the UK? |
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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28th May 2019, 11:15 AM | #2333 |
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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28th May 2019, 11:19 AM | #2334 |
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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28th May 2019, 11:55 AM | #2335 |
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who claims the soulless Who speaks for the forgotten dead ~ Danzig |
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28th May 2019, 10:30 PM | #2336 |
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Not bloody likely (as you would say ). Trade deals in the USA have a political visibility they've never enjoyed before due to Dump's ineptitude on trade deals around the world. Even if he is no longer president, such deals will take a couple of years. As an example, the "new" NAFTA, which is just a minor tweak to the existing Agreement, has stalled in its movement to passage and it was proposed a year ago. A whole new agreement with the UK is no small kettle of fish any more.
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28th May 2019, 11:04 PM | #2337 |
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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28th May 2019, 11:41 PM | #2338 |
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Business Insider has their own analysis, in line with pretty much everything said here.
https://www.businessinsider.com/euro...edium=referral If the totals were presented as a binary choice in a second referendum, the result would have been: Remain: 55.3% Leave: 44.7% That's a 10-point majority favoring Remain. In total, the Remain bloc won 9.3 million votes while the Leave contingent brought in 7 million. Not much to add but "someone shoot Corbyn already". McHrozni |
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29th May 2019, 12:01 AM | #2339 |
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Fewer people voted for the Brexit party than signed the 'Revoke article 50 now' online petition.
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29th May 2019, 12:49 AM | #2340 |
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29th May 2019, 01:12 AM | #2341 |
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29th May 2019, 01:18 AM | #2342 |
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I'll have to go look it up, but I'm fairly certain that the EU has made it quite clear, that if the UK leaves without a deal and then turns up in Brussels asking for a trade agreement, they will first be handed a slip of paper with the contents of the Withdrawal Agreement and asked to honour that, before any talks on a trade agreement will commence.
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29th May 2019, 01:38 AM | #2343 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Yup.
They will also notify any potential countries UK will approach for a trade deal that business with EU will be "reviewed" (or something of that nature) if they enter into a trade deal with a country that just tore apart a peace treaty between itself and an EU member state. China, Russia and USA can afford to ignore the warning. They'd suffer, but they can take the blow and sail on. The rest of the world doesn't have the power to do so. Of the three, two are irrelevant when it comes to saving the British economy and the third is more likely to side with the EU with the descision and add their weight to that of the EU than ally with UK. Most likely scenario until January 2021 is they do nothing, after that we'll see. McHrozni |
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29th May 2019, 01:42 AM | #2344 |
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29th May 2019, 02:12 AM | #2345 |
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I regard Farage, Johnson etc as fantasists who are not greatly bothered by evidence. Just look at what they claim and how when challenged they fail to provide evidence.
I think in the future there will be an accepted link between the rise of fake news and the success of the Brexit fantasists in selling their claims. The problem is that they have managed to sell the fantasy it will alright leaving the EU and when that goes wrong, as it will, they will blame others for supposedly sabotaging the fantasy. They will never be properly held to account. |
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29th May 2019, 02:57 AM | #2346 |
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Boris getting a court summons for alleged misconduct in public office.
Did Brian Rix write all this? |
29th May 2019, 03:38 AM | #2347 |
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29th May 2019, 04:16 AM | #2348 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Predictable response:
Quote:
...as opposed to the £350m a week claim... |
29th May 2019, 07:29 AM | #2349 |
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
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Only in brexiter's dreams.
Brexit: EU breaks up team that negotiated May's deal in clear sign it will never re-open talks And reminder: Majority of countries will have to approve any deal, EP has to too. Do you believe they will just sign crappy deal? Not to mention: What concessions? Brits never had any idea what they want in the first place. |
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29th May 2019, 08:18 AM | #2350 |
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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29th May 2019, 08:20 AM | #2351 |
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"There ain't half been some clever bastards" - Ian Dury |
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29th May 2019, 08:29 AM | #2352 |
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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29th May 2019, 11:42 AM | #2353 |
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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29th May 2019, 12:10 PM | #2354 |
Penultimate Amazing
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It depends on what you mean by "good".
I can foresee a time when the "difficulties" resulting from Brexit are so significant and occupying the news to such an extent that a trade deal on any terms will be seen by many as being good because at least it's
No matter how wretched it is, the Daily Mail, Daily Express and Daily Telegraph will simply insist that it's the best deal ever and a clear indicator of the "sunny uplands" which are the inevitable result of Brexit. |
29th May 2019, 12:19 PM | #2355 |
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29th May 2019, 12:32 PM | #2356 |
Penultimate Amazing
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I repeat my observation in both the US and the UK, a lot of the most capable people don't want to run for office..and I can't really blame them given what an ordeal it has become in both countries.
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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29th May 2019, 12:33 PM | #2357 |
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As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves. |
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29th May 2019, 12:41 PM | #2358 |
Penultimate Amazing
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It's fruitless unless I consider blood rather than adoptive parents.
I thought I had a shout at Italian citizenship given that both of my paternal grandparents were born in Italy but apparently as they both emigrated as children and took US citizenship then that's a non-starter On the maternal side it's all British though if Scotland becomes independent, joins the EU and recognises great grandparents then I'm in with a shout. If only I'd been any good at a prominent sport |
29th May 2019, 01:17 PM | #2359 |
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29th May 2019, 01:24 PM | #2360 |
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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