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29th May 2019, 01:29 PM | #2361 |
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29th May 2019, 01:34 PM | #2362 |
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48445430
The misconduct being the claim that the UK gives the EU £350m a week, which could be spent on the NHS. I think that this could just get Boris more support, as those for Brexit position themselves as victims of a dirty tricks campaign to try and stop Brexit. The unicorns they promised with Brexit could have happened, but for the evil remainers and EU.... |
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29th May 2019, 01:37 PM | #2363 |
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29th May 2019, 04:46 PM | #2364 |
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29th May 2019, 04:49 PM | #2365 |
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I see that they will have new elections in Israel after Bibi was unable to put a coalition together.
Maybe he and May can cry on each other;s shoulder as members of a "Had to quit as PM because I could not make a deal" club. |
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Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. |
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29th May 2019, 11:39 PM | #2366 |
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IMO the news from the SMMT (Society of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Traders) is an indication of what to expect post-Brexit.
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30th May 2019, 12:23 AM | #2367 |
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To be fair this is a statistical anomaly. Factories usually shut down for a few weeks in the summer, they did so in early April this year due to Brexit fears. The employees get shafted for summer holidays and the stockpiling and rerouting was costly and all of this will result in divesment, but the statistics paint a far bleaker picture than reality.
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30th May 2019, 12:31 AM | #2368 |
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30th May 2019, 01:25 AM | #2369 |
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Yes, definitely, no doubt there.
The picture is not as bleak as "20% drop in output in one year" though. Not an impressive bar to set or anything, but I' try to be as objective as possible at all times. Sunny uplands are a Brexit fantasy, they always were. Britain is such a mess right now and the worst thing is, it's not getting better yet. McHrozni |
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30th May 2019, 01:39 AM | #2370 |
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The Honda plant in Swindon is closing, production at Jaguar Landrover is being reduced and/or switched to plants in the EU, Nissan aren't building the X-Trail in Sunderland and BMW have already floated the idea that Mini production could be moved inside the EU in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
A 20% drop in production could represent a best possible outcome . |
30th May 2019, 01:43 AM | #2371 |
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Ah, British manufacturing will be wiped out by Brexit. That's all but certain now. If it takes much longer it will no longer matter whether there's a Brexit, not just hard Brexit. If the new PM asks for an extension in late October, offers a referendum and gets the necessary extension (>6 months), much of the manufacturing will likely be gone irrespective of the end result - doubly so, if the polling is close. Triply so if Farage promises to fight a result he dislikes, as he did in 2016 and we all know he will do so again. Democracy can only work when losers accept the results, after all.
But the article doesn't just say a "20% drop", it says "20% drop in one year". Things aren't Venezuela-level bad. Yet. McHrozni |
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30th May 2019, 02:07 AM | #2372 |
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I guess we'll see over the next 12 months. If production bounces back up from 1.4 million back up to 1.55 or 1.6 million then we'll know that it was in fact a really a "true" 10% drop with another 10% drop added by the early shutdown. Indeed we should see production figures significantly higher than previous years for the summer months reflecting the earlier shutdown. I'm not so sure that we will. Apart from a handful of specific models (prestige and/or electric) inventory is high so increasing production doesn't make sense. |
30th May 2019, 02:44 AM | #2373 |
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That's what the experts estimate.
The SMMT estimated production for the whole of 2019 would be about 10% down on last year. It said the market might pick up by the end of the year if there was a favourable deal between the UK and the EU and a substantial transition period to adapt to trading outside the single market. Quote is from the same article. Of course, with the whole Brexit thing one may never know. It would seem the car manufacturers will indeed put their pressure on politicians - British ones. If they take no deal Brexit off the table and offer a referendum between the WA and revoking A50 that would be just peachy. McHrozni |
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30th May 2019, 03:18 AM | #2374 |
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With a "no-dealer" likely to be installed as PM, that's a long shot IMO. They could offer a cash bribe from the £40bn divorce deal payment that they day they aren't going to make but that would just work in the very short term and in any case the alleged £40bn wouldn't last long.
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30th May 2019, 03:48 AM | #2375 |
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Nah.
Offer him £40 million in donations to Tory party if he obtains the referendum, but if doesn't get one the money goes to Labour instead. Stick and carrot approach, if you throw us under the bus with a no deal Brexit you get thrown under a train yourself. There is no love lost between British industries and Corbyn, but it's not like they have a legal obligation to uphold the threat if a no deal Brexit still happens. Plus they may give it to someone else to replace Corbyn. McHrozni |
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30th May 2019, 10:46 PM | #2376 |
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The CBI (Confederation of British Industry) wants the Tories to rule out a no deal.
Boris Johnson tells them to **** off. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/48465791 |
30th May 2019, 10:54 PM | #2377 |
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30th May 2019, 11:40 PM | #2378 |
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Well yes and no.
The Conservative Party does rely on large donations from business leaders but the CBI covers all of UK business (including millions of small businesses). The large (largely pro-no-deal Brexit) donors are still willing to donate to see their project through to completion.
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31st May 2019, 12:15 AM | #2379 |
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Big business as a check on government power? My, things have about-turned a bit.
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31st May 2019, 12:24 AM | #2380 |
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31st May 2019, 12:30 AM | #2381 |
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Maybe. But not all big business are on board - banks in particular aren't keen on a hard Brexit, though they may move operations elsewhere whatever happens.
That said, history does not end with a no-deal Brexit. Millions of small businesses means millions of jobs that will be at risk with a hard Brexit. Any PM advocating for and executing a no-deal Brexit will do so with the full knowledge it will hurt millions of people very severely, very quickly. There's a new election campaign to be fought just 2.5 years after the current departure date - plenty of time for the full effects to be felt and far too little time to have anything positive to show. BJ may not be able to, but I'm sure Tory party still has plentiful members who look that far. The polls are already showing LibDem to be in the lead, followed by Brexit party. Labour and Conservatives come tied at third place. Something has to be done by Tories before the next election, the sooner the better. McHrozni |
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31st May 2019, 12:39 AM | #2382 |
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I don't think that the big banks have been major net contributors to the Conservative party for some time. Sure there are donations but they tend to go to all major parties.
The major Conservative Party donors have tended to be individual business owners like Dyson or Bamford or hedge fund owners - in other words those who are free to make such donations without significant shareholder oversight. |
31st May 2019, 12:43 AM | #2383 |
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At this stage I wouldn't read too much into those polls - but if those numbers stay solid then perhaps the two main parties may have something to worry about.
Then again the LibDems and the Liberals before them, have often polled in the low 20's percent without gaining too many seats due to the foibles of the first-past-the-post system and the other two parties having concentrated geographic support. |
31st May 2019, 01:38 AM | #2384 |
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They can just withhold donations to Conservatives and call it a day. It doesn't matter if they're net contributors so long as they have the power to tip the balance of finance.
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31st May 2019, 01:46 AM | #2385 |
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The sums involved are small (thousands or tens of thousands of pounds) compared to the major donors so they may choose to withhold support but it likely won't make a difference.
edited to add..... from a BBC article about Conservative Party donors:
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These days it seems to be individuals rather than corporations who are the main donors. IIRC from Private Eye, Siemens donates around £10k annually to both Labour and Conservatives. ....end edit It might - unless the Conservative Party adopts a no-deal Brexit approach in which case the Brexit Party becomes pointless. The Brexit Party is riding high in the polls following the European elections, but so were UKIP following the last European elections and that translated into much lower support, and zero seats, in the general elections. Conservative defectors to UKIP swung back to the Tories for the general election. |
31st May 2019, 01:59 AM | #2386 |
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That's one danger, true. But again, the history does not end there, a no deal Brexit could well mean another election in half a year (with Corbyin coming on top) and a dissolution of the UK (Scotland and possibly NI could secede). Conservatives aren't keen on either and I'm sure fear being held responsible for it.
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Suffice to say the situation materially changed to the point where comparison is weak. No, I don't think the next parliament will be a four-way affar with LibDem and Brexit vying for the top spots, I think Labour and Tory MPs will push for a solution that preserves their jobs. As always, they have three options: 1. No-deal Brexit, that makes Brexit party irrelevant, but leeches many Labour votes to LibDem and possibly brings about a LibDem-led government with the next election. 2. No-Brexit, this one makes LibDem irrelevant, but propells Brexit party to untold heights while the two main parties suffer. 3. Another referendum, which possibly preserves the two main parties. I think they'll opt for point 3. They may need some convincing and prodding, perhaps a lobotomy or two, but I think this will be the result. I've been wrong before, but that's the solution that has the highest chance of preserving the most MPs in their seats - which is ultimately what they care about most. McHrozni |
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31st May 2019, 02:23 AM | #2387 |
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It could mean another election - but only if there is a successful vote of no confidence brought against the government OR the Conservatives are so confident of victory that they press ahead (for example if Boris becomes PM and adopts a no-deal Brexit approach I can see Brexit Party support immediately switching back to the Conservatives whereas Labour will still be hurt by Corbyn's lack of support for Remain or a second referendum).
In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the damage is already done. It'll be years or perhaps decades until a deal is made with the EU. UKIP support was 25% after the 2014 European elections and halved for the 2017 general election. IMO the Brexit Party support will likely decline in a similar way for a general election. I think you are completely wrong about the makeup of the parliament because both Labour and Conservative support will increase substantially as European election defectors and non-voters return to the party and both teh Brexit Party and the LibDems are punished by the first past the post system. Labour and the Conservatives will still get plenty of seats in their heartlands whereas the LibDems in particular will be runners up in a large number of seats. Even if the LibDems were to get far more seats than in living memory, they'd still require coalition partners to form a government. The SNP and Plaid would be good fits but Labour, Conservatives and the Brexit Party are all pro-Brexit and I think you underestimate how difficult it is for the LibDems to get seats. In 2010, their high water mark for almost a century, they got 23% of the votes and 57 seats. Labour got 29% of the votes and 258 seats. |
31st May 2019, 02:40 AM | #2388 |
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If there is a no-deal Brexit under BJ, I suspect a vote of no confidence within six months will be a mere formality. Britain would cease to be a deer in the headlights and become a fly on the windshield.
BJ may not know it, but many in the party do. Enough perhaps to stop his rise in dead in the tracks.
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Furthermore, UKIP polled just over half of Conservatives or Labour. Now it's ahead of both.
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The mere threat of that happening could well be enough. McHrozni |
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31st May 2019, 02:53 AM | #2389 |
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31st May 2019, 03:10 AM | #2390 |
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I don't think so. I think that the country would be in such turmoil following a no-deal Brexit that anyone proposing a vote of no confidence would be viewed as a political opportunist (particularly if, like Jeremy Corbyn, they were pro-Brexit). It would be like proposing a vote of no confidence in the middle of the second world war.
For most Conservative MPs in safe seats, there are two threats to their continued employment:
Both of these are ameliorated by being seen to strongly advocate a no-deal Brexit. If not Boris then likely another of the no-candidates. UKIP always outperformed in European elections due to a combination of a smaller turnout, an opportunity to cast a protest vote, proportional representation and a lack of prominent candidates for the major parties. The Brexit Party has no policies. Time will tell but I don't see them keeping their support - particularly if the Conservatives adopt a no-deal Brexit policy. Yes, I agree. Let's see what the opinion polls say in the autumn and beyond. IMO Donald Trump will be president until 2024 (as long as his health permits) and I realise any deals need to go through Congress but as long as he is making encouraging noises about trade deals, the Conservatives can dangle that carrot. As I've said, the LibDem's problem is that they have too uniform a geographic distribution and so in a FPTP election system their tipping point to acquiring lots of seats is far higher than for Conservatives and Labour - Maybe 30% of the poll or higher. |
31st May 2019, 03:24 AM | #2391 |
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Interesting meme doing the rounds on Facebook: "Brexit is like watching your library being burned down by people who can't read."
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31st May 2019, 04:07 AM | #2392 |
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Yes, in the immediate aftermath of a no-deal Brexit, sure, it would be a political opportunism at it's finest.
But what about after six months of basically flailling around, failling at everything and accomplishing nothing? Like Neville Chamberlain, except also directly caused by him? There would be a new PM or if none could get adequate support, a GE.
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However, keep something in mind: the strength of UKIP was above and beyond their dismal electoral results. It wasn't their MPs that brought about the Brexit referendum, it was the threat of voters deserting the Tories and going over to UKIP in sufficient numbers for Labour to win the election. That threat is now alive and well, thanks to unmanaged expectations of the electorate.
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Heck, Trump is neck and neck against an unnamed Democrat in Texas. I don't except him to lose there, but if he has to spend resources to win Texas he's in deep, deep trouble. Is a reelection possible? Sure it is, but I wouldn't count on it. He's currently down at least three questions on the 13-point list, Democrats need just three more - and the Republican primary may well get them one of those.
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Remember, UKIP was the key behind all this Brexit cresspool and they had exactly zero MPs. McHrozni |
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31st May 2019, 05:38 AM | #2393 |
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It'll be good when we actually get some news or progress to discuss rather than these insipid bouts of navel gazing and tea-leaf reading that are being forced upon us by our friends in Parliament.
Of course, we are now stuck in limbo again while the Tories decide which cretin should be the cretin-in-chief for the next few months until they get sick of them too. |
31st May 2019, 05:49 AM | #2394 |
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It does feel like 2017 all over again.
Two years ago it was "yay, we've gone for article 50...so let's piss about having a general election". In this case it's "yay, we got an extension...so let's piss about with a leadership election". |
31st May 2019, 07:05 AM | #2395 |
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31st May 2019, 11:55 AM | #2396 |
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31st May 2019, 12:21 PM | #2397 |
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31st May 2019, 12:23 PM | #2398 |
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31st May 2019, 02:58 PM | #2399 |
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31st May 2019, 06:11 PM | #2400 |
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Donald Trump has said Boris Johnson would be an "excellent" choice for the Conservative Party leadership.
In an interview with the Sun ahead of his visit to the UK, Mr Trump said: "I think Boris would do a very good job." The US president said other candidates had sought his endorsement, adding: "I could help anybody." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48478706 |
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