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19th June 2019, 12:51 AM | #2761 |
Chief Punkah Wallah
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To put Conservative membership numbers into perspective, the SNP have around 124,000 members. In a country of 5m people.
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When the men elected to make laws are but a small part of a foreign parliament, that is when all healthy national feeling dies. James Keir Hardie (1856 - 1915): Politician, Founder of Scottish Labour Party |
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19th June 2019, 01:44 AM | #2762 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2009
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Aha. Well, the numbers allow us to speculate, so take this with a shovelfull of salt:
UKIP member shrinkage went to Brexit party (larger share) and the Conservatives (small portion). The Conservatives lost 25,000 members net, some also joined in the meantime. Those who joined were predominantly no-deal Brexitards. Those who left were either those who made the world better by passing away, but there was a non-zero number of those who quit, because they oppose party Brexit policy. It stands to reason ~10% of the party skewes towards no-deal Brexit as a result of the said shifts. The number could be greater, theoretically up to 20% of the entire party but that's unlikely. It could be smaller, but I reckon it's not smaller than 5% of the party. I speculate the number is about 10% of the votes, if it wasn't for the membership changes due to Brexit, the party might not be 60-30 for no-deal Brexit with 10% not sure, but rather 50-40 with 10% not sure. That's a rough, indeed a ballpark estimate, the best I can do with the info given. It's a pity they don't report membership data, I'd be interested to see how many people quit, how many died and how many joined in the 2016-2019 period and compare that to 2013-2016 period. That would give us deep insight, especially if it was compiled by month. McHrozni |
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لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
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19th June 2019, 01:46 AM | #2763 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Yeah, that's a ratio more along the lines of what I was expecting. I expected 2-3 million members, certainly no less than a million and 5 million wouldn't surprise me in the least.
Less than 150 thousand members, indeed just 124 thousand members in a country of well over 60 million for the largest party the national parliament is tiny. McHrozni |
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لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
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19th June 2019, 01:55 AM | #2764 |
Penultimate Amazing
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19th June 2019, 02:40 AM | #2765 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Hm, right - it's the 2018 dynamic.
That probably means the largest shares of the drop in UKIP membership were to Conservatives and people no longer being associated with any political party (in no particular order). This slightly strengthens my speculation about why are the positions of Conservative party members as insane as they are. McHrozni |
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لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
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19th June 2019, 03:17 AM | #2766 |
Orthogonal Vector
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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19th June 2019, 06:48 AM | #2767 |
Philosopher
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An anonymous Tory MP summing up the whole farce:
Quote:
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19th June 2019, 10:04 AM | #2768 |
should be banned
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Latest votes
Collosal twat – 143 Rhyming slang twat– 54 Scottish twat– 51 Comprehensive school twat– 38 Tries to hide he is a twat– 27 - KNOCKED OUT |
19th June 2019, 10:29 AM | #2769 |
NWO Cyborg 5960x (subversion VPUNPCKHQDQ)
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ModBorg Engine: Ibalgin 400 |
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19th June 2019, 10:31 AM | #2770 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Boris in a landslide, snap election in which the Tories get a healthy majority, leave with no deal on 31 October. Economic crisis and end of the NHS as we know it.
Seems like I chose the wrong year to give up sniffing glue... |
19th June 2019, 11:35 AM | #2771 |
Orthogonal Vector
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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19th June 2019, 11:39 AM | #2772 |
Merchant of Doom
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History does not always repeat itself. Sometimes it just yells "Can't you remember anything I told you?" and lets fly with a club. - John w. Campbell |
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19th June 2019, 11:47 AM | #2773 |
should be banned
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19th June 2019, 12:21 PM | #2774 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
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I know you became Pete Townshend after our last avatar bet (and I became a plate of liver+bacon+onions in gravy, just for fun ... mmmmm) but here's another:
If Johnson wins and calls a snap election I reckon the Cons won't get a healthy majority ( an absolute majority of, say, 15). If you're up for it and lose then you become Keith Moon for a month. If I lose I'll serve whatever sentence you decree, for a month. |
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"There ain't half been some clever bastards" - Ian Dury |
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19th June 2019, 12:45 PM | #2775 |
Penultimate Amazing
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19th June 2019, 01:07 PM | #2776 |
Penultimate Amazing
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"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills |
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19th June 2019, 01:19 PM | #2777 |
The Grammar Tyrant
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The one thing I've always admired about Poms is their ability to make dry humour in the midst of a crisis.
Superb example - cheers. (You're going to need plenty of it in the next few years.) Boris! Boris! Boris! Turn back to Thatcher, Churchill, Disraeli or Pitt the Elder and I can't find a time a supreme BS artist and all-round over-entitled twat like Johnson would have been considered PM material. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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19th June 2019, 01:38 PM | #2778 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
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"There ain't half been some clever bastards" - Ian Dury |
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19th June 2019, 02:22 PM | #2779 |
Uncritical "thinker"
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I'm pretty sure Hellbound is doing the converse of me with the Trump threads. Morbidly wondering which will do more damage to our respective countries. I was saying to a Kiwi on Sunday, that I think New Zealand is the largest anglophone country to not be going politically insane (Canada seems to have a rather messy corruption issue at the moment).
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OECD healthcare spending Public/Compulsory Expenditure on healthcare https://data.oecd.org/chart/60Tt Every year since 1990 the US Public healthcare spending has been greater than the UK as a proportion of GDP. More US Tax goes to healthcare than the UK |
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19th June 2019, 03:29 PM | #2780 |
The Grammar Tyrant
Join Date: Jul 2006
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*Groan*
I wouldn't get your hopes up - the current situation only came about because Jacinda's the most-attractive MP we've ever had and Winston Peters had a chip the size of a giant redwood on his shoulders at the ruling - and largest - party. He is always one to carry a grudge, so our supposed lack of insanity is down to coincidence that is unlikely to be repeated. Not to mention, our government has shown itself to have enormous feet of clay and are just maintaining the status quo, while vastly increasing the military budget to appease said Winston. Why yes, he was named after Churchill. The insanity is there, just better hidden. |
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The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable. |
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19th June 2019, 09:18 PM | #2781 |
Penultimate Amazing
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New Zealand is politically insane.
We declare we are going carbon neutral while increasing population at the fastest rate in the world, while also having the most absolutely secure borders in the world, and zero ability for refugees to arrive. Jacinda Ardern is a disaster and a bare faced liar. Good luck with BJ. |
19th June 2019, 10:46 PM | #2782 |
Penultimate Amazing
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That's arguable. While it's true Rory Stewart was the only of the bunch speaking the truth on Brexit, I'm not sure that's what UK needs right now. The very best turn of events would be for BJ to win the Poisoned chalice of PM and drink deep. Have him try to bluff the EU one last time and then be faced with a prospect of no deal, amidst stark reminder it will be the end of UK, Tory party and, most importantly, his career. If the result of his premiership is BJ begging for an extension, promising everything to Brussels to obtain one the very idea of Brexit has been defeated. This is what UK needs right now, undeniable evidence Brexit has always been a lie, shown to all in a manner impossible to ignore. BJ begging for another extension is that evidence.
Of course there is risk of what the Don described: a snap election, a healthy Tory majority and a no deal Brexit. But this is easier said than done. The postal vote results for the new Tory leader are supposed to be announced on July 22nd. That's two days after the start of the summer recess of Parliament, which only returns on September 5th, when BJ can officialy take his mantle. That's less two months from the deadline. It's also the amount of time the snap election needs if he calls one as his first act as PM and doesn't even try to bluff the EU first. The 2017 snap election took two months and three days from announcement to Parliament being seated again (there was a two-day delay from the plan). BJ has eight days fewer and only if he calls a snap election on his first day as PM - and the first act of the new seating of Parliament would have to deal with no-deal Brexit crisis somehow. BJ plans to reopen negotiations with EU first, but he can't do that if he's the head of a caretaker government while elections are due. If he tries to bluff the EU and then call snap elections no-deal Brexit may hit in the midtst of an election campaign. That's ... not ideal, to put it mildly. I'll argue right here, right now, that BJ is the best option of the bunch. BJ bending the knee in Brussels, begging for mercy is what kills Brexit. I may be wrong - but I may also be right. McHrozni |
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لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
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19th June 2019, 11:34 PM | #2783 |
Penultimate Amazing
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It's not clear to me why a no-deal Brexit would necessarily damage Boris politically.
For starters it would make him absolutely secure in the party - 70% of members want no deal and if that YouGov poll is anything like accurate they consider the break up of the UK a price well worth paying. Leaving with a no-deal would absolutely spike the Brexit Party and UKIPs guns and so the Leave voters who have been supporting those parties as a means of prompting the Conservatives to implement Brexit will return to the fold. Meanwhile the Labour Party is in disarray with a leader who still seems to be pro-Brexit and very reluctant to change his mind. Nothing new there, he's been advocating the same policies on everything since the 1970s despite the world changing significantly in the meantime and recent reports on the BBC had him listening carefully to 25 MPs who were warning him not to consider Remain as a referendum option and ignore the 100+ who are asking for a second referendum. I couldn't vote for Labour in an upcoming General Election unless they change both their leader and their Brexit policy. Even if Labour changes leader, they need someone with a similar level of "brand awareness" as Boris and not some capable but boring nonentity. The Remain alternatives, LibDem or Green, don't have the kind of regional support to deliver large number of seats even if they get a significant proportion of the vote. Whenever the next election happens, I can see the Conservatives getting 30% to 35% of the vote due to a combination of party loyalists and people who have heard of Boris. Even with Corbyn at the helm, Labour will get 20% to 25% which leaves around 40% - 45% being split between the nationalist parties (who should expect to triumph), LibDems and Greens. With a split like that, and the vagaries of the first past the post system, if the Conservatives managed 35%, they could easily get a majority of 100+. If the election takes place amid post no-deal Brexit turmoil, I could see the Conservative share of the vote being significantly higher because people will be frightened to hand over control of the country to Corbyn. |
19th June 2019, 11:55 PM | #2784 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Supporting it in a poll and supporting it after you had to sell you kids for medical experiments because your plant closed down are you're destitute are two quite different things. Sure, Blitz spirit and all that will ensure there is no revolution in the UK. But promising unicorns and delivering untamed nightmares* isn't the recepie for a long, healthy political career either.
Furthermore the poll we all know and love asked Tory party members. There are only about 130 thousand of those, out of 46 million eligeble voters in the UK. The fact a clear majority of 130 thousand is of the opinion breaking up the UK and their prosperity is a price worth paying for Brexit does not mean a majority of voters is of the same opinion (and not "thinks") the same. I made a point about self-selection earlier, it is probable a statistically significant number of members left the Tories in disgust due to Brexit, skewing the numbers towards "Brexit, come what may". I see no justification to assume Tory party members hold the exact same opinions in the same proportions as their one hundred times larger voter base.
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Plus of course - the next election isn't the end of history either. Even if BJ wins he'll be presiding over a mother of all recessions, an evisceration of the remaining British manufacturing, probably losing a few bits of country in the process all the while being rightfully blamed for it all. Diehard party loyalists would still vote for him, sure. All 15% of the electorate. The rest would either stay at home or vote for someone else. I'm not sure he sees that far or indeed that he cares, but his place in history would be more along the lines of John I than anyone else. McHrozni *a dragon-horse with an attitude and a taste for human flesh |
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20th June 2019, 12:52 AM | #2785 |
Philosopher
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If Boris calls a GE, even with his supposed support for No Deal (as with everything else Boris, it is only a cloak of convenience), unless he manages to buy Farage off I don't see him managing to draw more than a few percent back to the Tories.
If the Faragists are a thing in the election then they will bite into the Tory votes. |
20th June 2019, 12:56 AM | #2786 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Sorry, I should have been clearer, the part about support from within the party for no-deal was to demonstrate that there is no credible internal threat to him in the foreseeable future, the Conservative Party members will continue to back him to the hilt and because they also get to select candidates, MPs will back him too.
That said, a straw poll down the pub (rural, well to do, Wales) of Conservative voters who aren't party members indicates strong support for a no-deal Brexit (for all the usual spurious reasons) and a willingness to blame the EU for any and all negative consequences. The thing is that, due to the vagaries of the first past the post system, the LibDems could easily poll 30% nationally and end up with 50 or so seats. For sure it's possible to form that coalition but it would be a very fragile one because there isn't enough overlap on domestic policy. They may be able to reach some kind of agreement on Brexit (if Labour is willing to change policy) but on a whole raft of other policies there would be little or no agreement. You're right that it wouldn't be the end of history but it would put us 4, 5 or 6 years down the line and with Boris having been Prime Minister and I think you're underestimating the right wing media's ability to deflect blame. In the event of a disastrous no-deal Brexit. 40% of the UK population will put the blame solidly on the EU (for being beastly and foreign) Remainers (for being anti-Brexit Quislings) and companies that pull out of the UK (for being traitors). |
20th June 2019, 01:00 AM | #2787 |
Penultimate Amazing
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IMO Tory support for a no-deal Brexit will completely spike the guns of the Brexit Party. Why vote for the Party when their only policy is to secure a no-deal Brexit when the Conservatives are offering the exact same thing ?
I expect the Brexit Party to disappear in the event of a no-deal Brexit in the same way that UKIP disappeared once the Leave vote happened. |
20th June 2019, 01:39 AM | #2788 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Maybe. I can find no polls that would indicate one way or another, possibly due to inadvertent googlebombing of the Conservative party members poll. The assertion Tory voters would vote for the party in the event of a Tory-headed disasterous no-deal Brexit is unsupported as far as I'm concerned. It's a risk, not the most likely turn of events.
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They will not admit they were fooled. They will instead remember how they always were against no-deal Brexit, because it was a foolish plan nobody voted for in the first place.
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A significant portion of the British electorate is emotionally invested in Brexit and wishes it done, come what may. I mentioned before how far those numbers go once reality starts to bite - ~20% or so, maybe 25%, maybe 15%, but neither lower nor higher than those borders. In the event of a no deal Brexit I expect polls to show 60% of the population to have voted against Brexit in 2016 within two years. Denial is a coping mechanism. McHrozni |
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20th June 2019, 02:32 AM | #2789 |
Philosopher
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20th June 2019, 05:27 AM | #2791 |
should be banned
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20th June 2019, 05:57 AM | #2792 |
Banned
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20th June 2019, 05:59 AM | #2793 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Johnson, Gove or Hunt.
What a choice to have make. I almost felt sorry for the Conservative members but then I remembered their views on, and enthusiasm for, a no-deal Brexit. |
20th June 2019, 06:02 AM | #2795 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Actually, the question should be "Why were there two televised debates ?"
The answers are:
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20th June 2019, 06:05 AM | #2796 |
Lackey
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“If only it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?” Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago |
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20th June 2019, 06:09 AM | #2797 |
Philosopher
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So I've started a blog about my writing. Check it out at: http://fourth-planet-problem.blogspot.com/ And my first book is on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077W322FX |
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20th June 2019, 06:10 AM | #2798 |
Penultimate Amazing
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Ah, but that's before Boris was able to convince the EU that the UK is perfectly prepared to shoot ourselves in the head unless our demands are met
Now that they're convinced of our mettle and will have to face a Boris who has complete freedom across a negotiating table, they're sure to give us everything we could possibly want |
20th June 2019, 06:40 AM | #2799 |
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20th June 2019, 06:49 AM | #2800 |
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