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Old 20th June 2019, 07:03 AM   #2801
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
You forgot giving the Daily Mail another reason to complain about the BBC.
They were complaining that the audience for the debate had some people in it that weren't 'pro Tory'

Apparently it was despicable and shows the BBC are biassed against Boris and should be shutdown immediately.
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Old 20th June 2019, 07:04 AM   #2802
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Boris waljed back on his new agreement and out by October position.
Now it is just 'feasible'
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Old 20th June 2019, 07:36 AM   #2803
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Originally Posted by Greebo View Post
And then there were three. Still looking like Boris is going to lead the charge back to the times were sooo much better (mid 1700's)
And then there will be none.

Love reference to Agatha Christie's Ten Little Indians.
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Old 20th June 2019, 08:00 AM   #2804
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Sounds like some tories are concerned about a potential Johnson v Gove matchup, owing to the bad blood between them and how it would reflect on the party in the forthcoming leadership contest. Good riddance, I say.
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Old 20th June 2019, 09:58 AM   #2805
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So Hunt and Johnson are the final two.
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Old 20th June 2019, 10:00 AM   #2806
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Johnson, Gove or Hunt.

What a choice to have make. I almost felt sorry for the Conservative members but then I remembered their views on, and enthusiasm for, a no-deal Brexit.
Two Tory MPs spoiled their ballots this time round
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Old 20th June 2019, 10:32 AM   #2807
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
The daily mail never complains when you get right wing extremists spouting off on TV. They will be loving the debates.
On the contrary, they have gotten very vexed over several of the people allowed to ask questions, which is clearly far more important than the candidates performance.
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Old 20th June 2019, 10:35 AM   #2808
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Now its Johnson or Hunt, a choice on a par with asking would you rather be shot or hung?
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Old 20th June 2019, 10:40 AM   #2809
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
Sounds like some tories are concerned about a potential Johnson v Gove matchup, owing to the bad blood between them and how it would reflect on the party in the forthcoming leadership contest. Good riddance, I say.
Looks like Johnston had arranged tactical voting on behalf of his supporters to oust Gove.

Javid had 34 votes. 3 of his supporters came out publicly supporting Johnston meaning none of the other 31 or the one of the two spoiled papers who managed to tick a box voted for Johnston.

That seems unlikely. Therefore some of Johnston's previous supporters switched. Probably for Hunt.
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Old 20th June 2019, 01:28 PM   #2810
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
New Zealand is politically insane.
We declare we are going carbon neutral while increasing population at the fastest rate in the world, while also having the most absolutely secure borders in the world, and zero ability for refugees to arrive.
Jacinda Ardern is a disaster and a bare faced liar. Good luck with BJ.
Wow, so much crap in two sentences.
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Old 20th June 2019, 01:30 PM   #2811
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Jacinda Ardern is a disaster and a bare faced liar. Good luck with BJ.
Yeah, but she's a pretty little thing, breast-fed at the UN (after all the delegates had gone home), cried a lot over the Chch massacre and wore a scarf for a week.

Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
So Hunt and Johnson are the final two.
If it's Hunt, at least tabloid-ready nicknames spring to mind more easily.
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Old 20th June 2019, 10:15 PM   #2812
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BBC is reporting 160 thousand Tory party members. From links provided by The Don earlier in the thread we can summarize they had no more 125 thousand members a few months ago, I think that info may be faulty. Given the information we have I think their numbers started to rise after the Brexit referendum in 2016, they mostly gobbled up former UKIP members.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48711077

If true this fully explains their idiotic enthusiasm for a no deal Brexit and creates a significant question mark about how accurate is the gauge of party members for their electoral support. It is at least partially true, such large shifts in membership is by definition self-selective.

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Old 20th June 2019, 10:37 PM   #2813
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Looks like Johnston had arranged tactical voting on behalf of his supporters to oust Gove.

Javid had 34 votes. 3 of his supporters came out publicly supporting Johnston meaning none of the other 31 or the one of the two spoiled papers who managed to tick a box voted for Johnston.

That seems unlikely. Therefore some of Johnston's previous supporters switched. Probably for Hunt.
Apparently 5 MPs, Chris Philp, Chris Skidmore, Mims Davies, Kevin Foster and Mike Wood, said they would vote for Johnston when Javid went out. That means at least 2 of Johnston's supporters switched. Hunt beat Gove by 2..... Interesting to see if Gove becomes a Hunt attack dog.
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Old 20th June 2019, 11:06 PM   #2814
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
BBC is reporting 160 thousand Tory party members. From links provided by The Don earlier in the thread we can summarize they had no more 125 thousand members a few months ago, I think that info may be faulty. Given the information we have I think their numbers started to rise after the Brexit referendum in 2016, they mostly gobbled up former UKIP members.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48711077

If true this fully explains their idiotic enthusiasm for a no deal Brexit and creates a significant question mark about how accurate is the gauge of party members for their electoral support. It is at least partially true, such large shifts in membership is by definition self-selective.

McHrozni
I'd be interested to know where the BBC got its "up to 160,000" figure from as the latest semi-authoritative figure is 124,000 from April 2018.

Ah, it seems that it came from the Conservatives themselves who have claimed this figure.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ry-membership/
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Old 20th June 2019, 11:33 PM   #2815
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'd be interested to know where the BBC got its "up to 160,000" figure from as the latest semi-authoritative figure is 124,000 from April 2018.

Ah, it seems that it came from the Conservatives themselves who have claimed this figure.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ry-membership/
Hm. 36,000 seems awfully close to the numbers of UKIP party prior to their disintegration.

It looks like my specunalysis to the main cause for Conservative support for no-deal Brexit was alarmingly close to reality.

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Old 21st June 2019, 12:18 AM   #2816
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Hm. 36,000 seems awfully close to the numbers of UKIP party prior to their disintegration.
Then again, many or most of them will have joined the Brexit Party, though whether there's anything to stop someone joining more than one party is a good question.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It looks like my specunalysis to the main cause for Conservative support for no-deal Brexit was alarmingly close to reality.

McHrozni
IMO looks like you have a hammer and you're on a nail hunt.

There has been a strong Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party for decades and the membership being predominantly old, white and male are right in the sweet spot for no-deal Brexit support. Conservative supporters broke 60/40 for Leave and IMO it's reasonable to expect that members, who are more Conservative (and conservative) than just supporters will have been even more enthusiastic about Brexit.

I don't think that there has to be any extraordinary explanation for the current opinions of the Conservative Party members involving large numbers joining from UKIP whilst large numbers of "moderate" Conservatives are leaving. Instead IMO it just represents a distillation of the views of the party membership at the time of the referendum.
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Old 21st June 2019, 01:52 AM   #2817
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As I said before, over that poll of what tory members would be willing to sacrifice for a No Deal. It's a surprise that as many as 30% would balk at sacrificing everything.

That the party consists of nutters is no great surprise.
These are the people that thought IDS would make a good leader.
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Old 21st June 2019, 01:54 AM   #2818
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Then again, many or most of them will have joined the Brexit Party, though whether there's anything to stop someone joining more than one party is a good question.
Nothing to stop you but I suspect most parties will forbid it in their rules.
Labour banned people in momentum I mean militant, (easy mistake!). Voting for another party apart from labour also gets you expelled so joining one will certainly be a no-no.
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Old 21st June 2019, 01:57 AM   #2819
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Nothing to stop you but I suspect most parties will forbid it in their rules.
Labour banned people in momentum I mean militant, (easy mistake!). Voting for another party apart from labour also gets you expelled so joining one will certainly be a no-no.
Unless you're Kate Hoey, her support for the Brexit Party seems to have had no negative consequences
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Old 21st June 2019, 02:03 AM   #2820
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Then again, many or most of them will have joined the Brexit Party, though whether there's anything to stop someone joining more than one party is a good question.
There was a two-year gap between UKIP becoming irrelevant and Brexit party being formed.

Quote:
IMO looks like you have a hammer and you're on a nail hunt.
While acknowledging the board is being held together by long, thin bits of metal that look similar to nails.

They could be screws of course, but they're covered and we can't tell with a sufficient degree of certainty.

Quote:
There has been a strong Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party for decades and the membership being predominantly old, white and male are right in the sweet spot for no-deal Brexit support. Conservative supporters broke 60/40 for Leave and IMO it's reasonable to expect that members, who are more Conservative (and conservative) than just supporters will have been even more enthusiastic about Brexit.

I don't think that there has to be any extraordinary explanation for the current opinions of the Conservative Party members involving large numbers joining from UKIP whilst large numbers of "moderate" Conservatives are leaving. Instead IMO it just represents a distillation of the views of the party membership at the time of the referendum.
It's a bit of both, their relative importances are the crux of the debate. Both happened, the question is to what degree. If the 2016 number of 124 thousand members is accurate and if the 2019 number of 160 thousand members is also accurate, then a significant number of people joined recently and they skewed numbers towards the insane options and my hypothesis is the main factor. This depends on a recent and major shift in Conservative party membership, if it happened in 2016-19 it certainly happened due to Brexit and since we know what the result was the only rational conclusion is there was a causal relationship between the two.

If one or both of those numbers are inaccorate and no significant shifts of membership happened, then the shift was mostly or overwhelmingly the distillation you mention and your hypothesis is the main factor. New members joining and old ones leaving had a minor effect in this case.

Both happened to some extent though, it's just a question of scale.

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Old 21st June 2019, 02:04 AM   #2821
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Unless you're Kate Hoey, her support for the Brexit Party seems to have had no negative consequences
I suspect the Tories need to be more forgiving if the party is to remain viable. Then again for Alistair Campbell I am not sure if it was voting for the lib dem or serving under Blair that comrade Corbin finds most offensive.
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Old 21st June 2019, 02:19 AM   #2822
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
As I said before, over that poll of what tory members would be willing to sacrifice for a No Deal. It's a surprise that as many as 30% would balk at sacrificing everything.

That the party consists of nutters is no great surprise.
These are the people that thought IDS would make a good leader.
Its worse than that:

"3. After Churchill and Thatcher, the post-war party leaders most respected by the membership are Hague and Duncan Smith"
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...ve-member-surv

Tory members actually respect IDS more than almost any Tory leader since the war!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...lems_as_leader
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Old 21st June 2019, 02:22 AM   #2823
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Originally Posted by Lothian View Post
Labour banned people in momentum I mean militant, (easy mistake!). Voting for another party apart from labour also gets you expelled so joining one will certainly be a no-no.
Militant, though, was not a party.
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Old 21st June 2019, 02:22 AM   #2824
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
There was a two-year gap between UKIP becoming irrelevant and Brexit party being formed.
True, but you're not obliged to be a member of a political party.

I'd be shocked if there wasn't a significant overlap between UKIP members in 2016 and Brexit Party members in 2019. In-between they could have joined a different party or simply not bothered to join any party.
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Old 21st June 2019, 11:49 PM   #2825
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Militant, though, was not a party.
Bit of a meaningless distinction, it was a political "grouping" that for all extent and purposes acted like a political party. Most people would say "I'm a member of Militant" at the time. I should know being back in the 80s in one of these other "parties" that got you kicked out of the Labour party!
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Old 22nd June 2019, 02:16 AM   #2826
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Jeremy Hunt has said plans for a televised Conservative leadership debate three days after voting begins is making a "mockery" of the contest.

Mr Hunt said Boris Johnson had challenged him to a debate on ITV, scheduled to take place on 9 July.

He accepted, but then "realised" it would take place the day after party members received their postal ballots.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48728265
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Old 22nd June 2019, 02:42 AM   #2827
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Jeremy Hunt has said plans for a televised Conservative leadership debate three days after voting begins is making a "mockery" of the contest.

Mr Hunt said Boris Johnson had challenged him to a debate on ITV, scheduled to take place on 9 July.

He accepted, but then "realised" it would take place the day after party members received their postal ballots.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48728265
The levels of incompetence on display is staggering - even after accounting for their performance in Cabinet.
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Old 22nd June 2019, 03:09 AM   #2828
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Johnson showing his tougher side last night, sure it will go down well with his party.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1TM2ML
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Old 22nd June 2019, 03:46 AM   #2829
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Various Boris supporters are calling for the neighbours that called the police to be 'named and shamed' as it is all obviously a plan to foil his leadership bid and not concern for his girlfriends safety. They seem to be the same people who justified Field's manhandling of a woman because she could have posed a threat to his safety.
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Old 22nd June 2019, 06:14 AM   #2830
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Various Boris supporters are calling for the neighbours that called the police to be 'named and shamed' as it is all obviously a plan to foil his leadership bid and not concern for his girlfriends safety. They seem to be the same people who justified Field's manhandling of a woman because she could have posed a threat to his safety.

Also noticeable how a number of Trump supporters have come out with a thoroughly 1950's attitude to potential domestic violence, basically an argument that what goes on behind closed doors is no one else's business.
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Old 22nd June 2019, 09:11 AM   #2831
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Various Boris supporters are calling for the neighbours that called the police to be 'named and shamed' as it is all obviously a plan to foil his leadership bid and not concern for his girlfriends safety. They seem to be the same people who justified Field's manhandling of a woman because she could have posed a threat to his safety.
Hearing thuds and the woman screaming 'Get off me!' and 'Get out of my flat!' (several times), together with the sound of smashing crockery and an almighty building-shaking crash after he shouted, 'Get off my ******* laptop!) followed by silence could indeed cause a passerby/neighbour to feel alarmed. I don't know anyone who smashes plates or causes crashing vibrations.

OK so it was likely a late-night drunken row caused by a build up of stress from the balloting, the intense media focus on BoJo's split with his wife, etc., but fair enough, some people would have been sufficiently and genuinely alarmed enough to fetch the police. Recording a potential crime scene is almost de rigeur these days.

Calling the GRAUNIAD was rather lefty, though, given its readership is a fraction of the more obvious tabloids.
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Old 22nd June 2019, 10:19 AM   #2832
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Calling the GRAUNIAD was rather lefty, though, given its readership is a fraction of the more obvious tabloids.
Who would you call that wouldn't be likely to squelch the report?
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Old 22nd June 2019, 11:00 AM   #2833
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Allison Person of the Daily telegraph says

Quote:
We really need to name and shame the Boris neighbours. Maybe record their blameless, unshouty lives and give the tape to a national newspaper. Anyone know who they are?
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Old 22nd June 2019, 12:09 PM   #2834
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Well, at least he wasn't caught wearing a Chelsea football shirt.
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Old 22nd June 2019, 12:42 PM   #2835
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Allison Person of the Daily telegraph says
I wonder if

- she is just critical because the story went to another paper?
- is she wanting to name and shame because the tape has been made public?
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Old 22nd June 2019, 12:43 PM   #2836
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Hearing thuds and the woman screaming 'Get off me!' and 'Get out of my flat!' (several times)..
You would think that Boris would understand that when someone says leave, they mean it.
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Old 22nd June 2019, 12:51 PM   #2837
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
I wonder if

- she is just critical because the story went to another paper?
- is she wanting to name and shame because the tape has been made public?
Daily Telegraph? Enough said?
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Old 22nd June 2019, 01:18 PM   #2838
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"Consider as well this small vignette: Johnson’s Toyota Previa people carrier had been parked outside Symonds’s flat overnight but was reportedly driven away Friday afternoon. It had three parking tickets and a mocking flyer on the windscreen that had also been posted on a fence nearby reading : “We’d rather endure him as a neighbour than our prime minister.” Another neighbour was reported as saying: “It’s got loads of parking tickets on it. He just leaves it here. He doesn’t care.” That’s the attitude: parking tickets are for little people. That cavalier posh-boy spoiled behaviour should truly upset law abiding Tory party members."

Heaven help us all.
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Old 22nd June 2019, 01:31 PM   #2839
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That should have been Pearson, not Person of course.

She has written a number of 'glowing' columns about Boris over the years. I think she has the hots for him.
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Old 22nd June 2019, 02:23 PM   #2840
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The neighbour didn't just 'hear' the row. (s)he held a microphone against the wall and taped the conversation before calling the anti-tory Grauniad. We don't know yet how much the neighbour was paid by the Guardian for the recordings.

Also wasted police time by calling them out - although to be charitable, we didn't know that their time had been wasted until after they'd attended and said that there was no need for them to have been there.

Would you want a neighbour that taped your conversations and passed them on to a national newspaper whenever you're having a domestic row? I wouldn't.

Last edited by ceptimus; 22nd June 2019 at 02:27 PM.
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