ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
View Poll Results: General Election: What do you predict the outcome will be?
Conservative Majority <10 4 10.81%
Conservative Majority between 11 to 20 10 27.03%
Conservative Majority between 21 - 30 2 5.41%
Conservative Majority between 31 - 40 2 5.41%
Conservative Majority between 41 - 50 2 5.41%
Conservative Majority between 51 - 60 0 0%
Conservative Majority >61 1 2.70%
Labour close majority 1 2.70%
Labour majority > 10 0 0%
Hung Parliament 14 37.84%
Liberal Democrat majority 0 0%
Green Majority 0 0%
Other Majority - Brexit Party/Independents/Others 0 0%
Election? What Election? 1 2.70%
Voters: 37. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
Old 8th December 2019, 11:28 PM   #1
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 17,899
General Election Poll (UK)

So, a Conservative majority is expected. What is your prediction?
__________________
Blott en dag, ett ogonblick i sander,
vilken trost vad an som kommer pa! ~ L Sandell
Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 8th December 2019, 11:58 PM   #2
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,749
This is the movement of the prediction of the past week:

Mid-range last monday:
Tory: 342
Labour: 226
SNP: 44
LibDem: 15
DUP: 8
SF: 7
Plaid: 4
Alliance: 3
Green: 1

Mid-range on friday:
Tory: 340
Labour: 228
(others unchanged)

Mid-range on monday:
Tory: 348
Labour: 225
SNP: 41
LibDem: 13
(others unchanged)

In other words, Tories picked up net three seats from Labour, three from SNP and two from LibDem, the rest was unchanged. The last-minute move towards Tories, who are already ahead, suggest a Tory majority, unless there is a significant amount of voters who were not touched by the polling.

I picked a Tory majority of 11-20 seats based on this.

The prediction could be wrong if there are significant secret Labour voters. This was the case in the 2017 election when polls underestimated Labour voters by about 3-5 percentage points in the week prior to election. However Tory votes this time around are exactly where they were in 2017 and the poll prediction for their performance was accurate for their overall vote percentage. Labour performs several percentage points worse this time around (33% vs 38% in 2017). This suggest a Tory majority, perhaps even a comfortable one.

It is also a condemnation of all things Corbyn.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

Last edited by McHrozni; 9th December 2019 at 12:25 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 02:05 AM   #3
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 27,678
I know I'm a bit of a Cassandra, but then again that doesn't mean I'm always wrong.

I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent (depending on your point of view), botched attempts at tactical voting, a very low turnout among young voters, a complete collapse of the Brexit Party, high turnout among shy Conservatives which could result in a Tory landslide. I voted for 60+ majority but I think it could easily be 100+.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 02:09 AM   #4
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 17,899
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I know I'm a bit of a Cassandra, but then again that doesn't mean I'm always wrong.

I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent (depending on your point of view), botched attempts at tactical voting, a very low turnout among young voters, a complete collapse of the Brexit Party, high turnout among shy Conservatives which could result in a Tory landslide. I voted for 60+ majority but I think it could easily be 100+.
__________________
Blott en dag, ett ogonblick i sander,
vilken trost vad an som kommer pa! ~ L Sandell
Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 02:10 AM   #5
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 17,899
Should have included one extra category: turkeys voting for Christmas.
__________________
Blott en dag, ett ogonblick i sander,
vilken trost vad an som kommer pa! ~ L Sandell
Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 02:35 AM   #6
Professor Yaffle
Butterbeans and Breadcrumbs
 
Professor Yaffle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Emily's shop
Posts: 17,612
I predict I'll be hiding under the duvet for the forseeable
Professor Yaffle is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 03:04 AM   #7
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,749
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent
I think this is a false dichtomy. Corbyn seems both to me - hopelessly incompetent and then smeared to appear even worse.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 03:17 AM   #8
P.J. Denyer
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 6,208
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I think this is a false dichtomy. Corbyn seems both to me - hopelessly incompetent and then smeared to appear even worse.

McHrozni

And opposed by someone deceitful, self serving and incompetent but built up to appear better. It's a perfect **** storm.
__________________
"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion

"Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills
P.J. Denyer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 03:34 AM   #9
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,749
Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
And opposed by someone deceitful, self serving and incompetent but built up to appear better. It's a perfect **** storm.
Ah no question. If I had to choose between Corbyn and BJ I'd pick ... waterboarding. Or something.
But BJ has a competent propaganda machine at his back and a voter base of deplorables for whom lack of competence is seen as a vital asset. Corbyn does not.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

Last edited by McHrozni; 9th December 2019 at 03:35 AM.
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 03:39 AM   #10
P.J. Denyer
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 6,208
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I think this is a false dichtomy. Corbyn seems both to me - hopelessly incompetent and then smeared to appear even worse.

McHrozni
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Ah no question. If I had to choose between Corbyn and BJ I'd pick ... waterboarding. Or something.
But BJ has a competent propaganda machine at his back and a voter base of deplorables for whom lack of competence is seen as a vital asset. Corbyn does not.

McHrozni
For me this is one of those situations where even in the absence of someone I'd choose to support the lesser of the two evils is absolutely clear in my opinion.
__________________
"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion

"Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills
P.J. Denyer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 03:56 AM   #11
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,749
Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
For me this is one of those situations where even in the absence of someone I'd choose to support the lesser of the two evils is absolutely clear in my opinion.
Is it?

Corbyn is probably the lesser evil, but not by much.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 04:59 AM   #12
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 27,678
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Is it?

Corbyn is probably the lesser evil, but not by much.

McHrozni
I think Boris Johnson is orders of magnitude worse. He and the Tories will damage the UK far worse and in their case it will be irrevocable
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 05:53 AM   #13
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,749
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think Boris Johnson is orders of magnitude worse. He and the Tories will damage the UK far worse and in their case it will be irrevocable
Maybe, but you need to consider not just Corbyn as PM, but also BJ as leader of the opposition and the fact there is another election coming by late 2024. It's not just the Corbyn premiership, but what comes after - probably a BJ premiership, with all sorts of terrible propaganda baggage and unfulfillable promises.

In the light of that it could be BJ is the lesser evil - Brits will have no one but BJ and Tories to blame for the wreckage that is Brexit, perhaps Labour might get its act together too.

If this was a single, point issue I'd agree BJ is worse - but it's not.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 06:40 AM   #14
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 27,678
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Maybe, but you need to consider not just Corbyn as PM, but also BJ as leader of the opposition and the fact there is another election coming by late 2024. It's not just the Corbyn premiership, but what comes after - probably a BJ premiership, with all sorts of terrible propaganda baggage and unfulfillable promises.

In the light of that it could be BJ is the lesser evil - Brits will have no one but BJ and Tories to blame for the wreckage that is Brexit, perhaps Labour might get its act together too.

If this was a single, point issue I'd agree BJ is worse - but it's not.

McHrozni
If Boris Johnson loses this election, he'll be kicked out as Tory leader, he'll never be PM again IMO. Conservatives cannot abide a loser.

If Labour are in power, there'll be a referendum which will very likely result in Brexit being cancelled (not least because the ERG would oppose a Labour Brexit).
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 07:03 AM   #15
ceptimus
puzzler
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 6,156
If there's a working Tory majority, I'd expect Labour to try and replace Corbyn early next year. Corbyn may even decide to stand down, so forcing a leadership election.

The parliamentary Labour faction (MPs) have always wanted rid of Corbyn and have tried twice already. Their preferred candidate would be a Tony Blair Mk 2. Nearest they might get to that would probably be Keir Starmer - even though he's not a Blairite.

The Labour leader is chosen by a "one member one vote" system. The activists and members of the party other than MPs would either want Corbyn again, or another left winger. They're also conscious of not having had a woman leader (other than a temporary stand-in) while the Tories have already had two female Prime Ministers. That makes Rebecca Long-Bailey the likely favourite.

Last edited by ceptimus; 9th December 2019 at 07:07 AM.
ceptimus is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 07:42 AM   #16
llwyd
Muse
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 541
Actually, I think I would prefer a small Conservative majority. Then, maybe,just maybe, they couldn't blame anyone else for failing to deliver the magical promised land of Brexit. Which of course is undeliverable. Who needs Fox News when you have the glorious British press...
llwyd is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 08:07 AM   #17
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 27,678
Originally Posted by llwyd View Post
Actually, I think I would prefer a small Conservative majority. Then, maybe,just maybe, they couldn't blame anyone else for failing to deliver the magical promised land of Brexit. Which of course is undeliverable. Who needs Fox News when you have the glorious British press...
There'll always be someone else to blame.

They'll blame "Remoaners" for stalling the process for three years, losing the momentum they would otherwise have had to secure a fabulous Brexit deal.

They'll blame retired and ex- Conservative MPs for failing to negotiate a fabulous Brexit deal.

They'll blame the EU for not giving the UK a fabulous Brexit deal.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 08:11 AM   #18
ceptimus
puzzler
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 6,156
Politicians always try to blame anyone but themselves. The Tories are still blaming Labour for the state of the UK economy, even though Labour hasn't been in power for over nine years now.

Labour were just as bad when they were in power, and they will be again next time they form a government.
ceptimus is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 09:12 AM   #19
Darat
Lackey
Administrator
 
Darat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 89,201
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I know I'm a bit of a Cassandra, but then again that doesn't mean I'm always wrong.

I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent (depending on your point of view), botched attempts at tactical voting, a very low turnout among young voters, a complete collapse of the Brexit Party, high turnout among shy Conservatives which could result in a Tory landslide. I voted for 60+ majority but I think it could easily be 100+.
I was thinking something similar but I've been actually shocked at what I've seen today around here. In a short stretch of a lane of the rather more expensive houses around here (which does mean expensive) there are 6 placards out for Dominic Grieves in their drives or on fences. They are the first placards I've seen up in many a year, perhaps the tories will lose this very safe seat.

It would be astonishing as my gran would say about her local MP, they could stick a blue rosette on a pig and it would get in.
__________________
I wish I knew how to quit you
Darat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 09:13 AM   #20
Darat
Lackey
Administrator
 
Darat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 89,201
Originally Posted by Professor Yaffle View Post
I predict I'll be hiding under the duvet for the forseeable
Hang on isn't a duvet a posh name for those "continental quilts"? Traitor!
__________________
I wish I knew how to quit you
Darat is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 10:20 AM   #21
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 17,899
Yougov puts Labour ahead of Conservatives in Wales, despite Wales being strongly 'leave'.

40% to 37%

Good graphic here:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/sta...102074368?s=20
__________________
Blott en dag, ett ogonblick i sander,
vilken trost vad an som kommer pa! ~ L Sandell
Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 10:26 AM   #22
GlennB
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
 
GlennB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Arcadia, Greece
Posts: 25,711
And the latest ICM poll has the gap down slightly and into hung parliament territory.

In other news - if the Con majority is exactly 10 then nobody will be right in the thread poll
__________________
"Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut
GlennB is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 10:40 AM   #23
Ian Osborne
JREF Kid
Tagger
 
Ian Osborne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 8,111
I voted hung parliament, more in hope than expectation. I predict a Tory majority of 10-20.
__________________
"Faith without doubt leads to moral arrogance, the eternal pratfall of the religiously convinced" - Joe Klein, Time magazine

"The fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." - Carl Sagan
Ian Osborne is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 10:54 AM   #24
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 17,899
Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
And the latest ICM poll has the gap down slightly and into hung parliament territory.

In other news - if the Con majority is exactly 10 then nobody will be right in the thread poll
You'll then win the award of Mr Clever Glenn.

When the DAILY HORROR MAIL admit to Labour catching up, then you know it must be real.

Quote:
The poll, conducted between December 6-9, puts the Tories on 42 per cent - the same rating as the company's last survey published at the start of the month.

But Labour has gained one point and is now on 36 per cent overall, boosting the party's hopes of depriving Mr Johnson of a majority.

A six point lead for the Tories if replicated at the ballot box on Thursday would likely put the UK on the brink of another hung parliament.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...IX-points.html


That poor little four-year-old boy having to be treated on a hospital floor will soon cost Boris some more votes. Heartless rake put the reporter's phone in his pocket when asked about it. All he could come out with was empty soundbites.
__________________
Blott en dag, ett ogonblick i sander,
vilken trost vad an som kommer pa! ~ L Sandell
Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 11:15 AM   #25
GlennB
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
 
GlennB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Arcadia, Greece
Posts: 25,711
Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
That poor little four-year-old boy having to be treated on a hospital floor will soon cost Boris some more votes. Heartless rake put the reporter's phone in his pocket when asked about it. All he could come out with was empty soundbites.
MrsB is itching for a late scandal to cost Johnson dearly. This is relatively minor, but its effect depends on how widely it's reported in the rightist tabloids.
__________________
"Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut
GlennB is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 01:15 PM   #26
P.J. Denyer
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 6,208
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If Boris Johnson loses this election, he'll be kicked out as Tory leader, he'll never be PM again IMO. Conservatives cannot abide a loser.

If Labour are in power, there'll be a referendum which will very likely result in Brexit being cancelled (not least because the ERG would oppose a Labour Brexit).
This, Johnson is backers will only support him so long as they think he can still make good on the promises he's making. Separate him from power and they'll turn on him faster than.... Well, you know that scene in Jaws (book not movie) when Quint disembowels a live blue shark and throws it back in with it's fellows?

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
There'll always be someone else to blame.

They'll blame "Remoaners" for stalling the process for three years, losing the momentum they would otherwise have had to secure a fabulous Brexit deal.

They'll blame retired and ex- Conservative MPs for failing to negotiate a fabulous Brexit deal.

They'll blame the EU for not giving the UK a fabulous Brexit deal.
And with so much of the media on their side they'll get away with it again.
__________________
"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion

"Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills
P.J. Denyer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 01:19 PM   #27
P.J. Denyer
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 6,208
Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
MrsB is itching for a late scandal to cost Johnson dearly. This is relatively minor, but its effect depends on how widely it's reported in the rightist tabloids.
In print it's minor, the actual footage of him refusing to look at the picture and instantly changing the subject to preprepared soundbites was pretty stomach churning. The lack of basic human empathy shone through.
__________________
"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion

"Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills
P.J. Denyer is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 01:20 PM   #28
Lothian
should be banned
 
Lothian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: I try to be a moving target
Posts: 15,202
Not enough options as I would only like the Tories hung.
Lothian is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 9th December 2019, 11:22 PM   #29
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,749
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If Boris Johnson loses this election, he'll be kicked out as Tory leader, he'll never be PM again IMO. Conservatives cannot abide a loser.

If Labour are in power, there'll be a referendum which will very likely result in Brexit being cancelled (not least because the ERG would oppose a Labour Brexit).
If that's true then Corbyn is the lesser evil.

I have some doubts about both though. We'll see, I would hope.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th December 2019, 10:29 AM   #30
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 17,899
Latest poll news:

Quote:
The Savanta ComRes survey, conducted between December 6-8, puts the Tories on 43 per cent and Labour on 36 per cent.

If such numbers were replicated on polling day it could lead to a hung parliament, with the Electoral Calculus prediction website suggesting it would leave the Conservatives a handful of seats short of a majority.

Tory strategists are concerned Labour may not need to gain a single seat to oust Mr Johnson, with the party's private polling showing that losing just 12 constituencies to the SNP and Lib Dems could put Mr Corbyn in Number

Boris Johnson appears to be getting more and more desperate by the day. I thought it was a spoof when I saw what looked like a photoshopped BoJo come crashing through a wall in a digger with 'Get Brexit Done' and a union flag. To my astonishment, it turns out it is the latest Tory PR.
__________________
Blott en dag, ett ogonblick i sander,
vilken trost vad an som kommer pa! ~ L Sandell
Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th December 2019, 11:18 AM   #31
Jack by the hedge
Safely Ignored
 
Jack by the hedge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 9,910
Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
When the DAILY HORROR MAIL admit to Labour catching up, then you know it must be real.
Or perhaps more likely the Mail want to scare Tory voters into turning out.

If they're too confident of winning they might get complacent, not bother to vote and lose some seats (if the youth vote bothers to get out of bed this time around).
Jack by the hedge is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th December 2019, 12:10 PM   #32
ceptimus
puzzler
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 6,156
Looks like voting day will have poor weather - strong wind and heavy rain. No doubt that will make some voters less likely to venture out to the polling stations to vote. It will be interesting to see which way the psephologists think that will swing the vote.
ceptimus is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th December 2019, 01:59 PM   #33
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 17,899
Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Looks like voting day will have poor weather - strong wind and heavy rain. No doubt that will make some voters less likely to venture out to the polling stations to vote. It will be interesting to see which way the psephologists think that will swing the vote.
IMV it'll be the most determined that go out and vote, which as to be in favour of Labour and LibDem/marginals. I wouldn't underestimate the older Brexiteer generation though.
__________________
Blott en dag, ett ogonblick i sander,
vilken trost vad an som kommer pa! ~ L Sandell
Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th December 2019, 02:25 PM   #34
Seismosaurus
Philosopher
 
Seismosaurus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 6,041
Conservative majority, in the 15-25 range. Not really based on anything but guesswork and a few glances at the polls.
__________________
Promise of diamonds in eyes of coal
She carries beauty in her soul
Seismosaurus is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 10th December 2019, 11:48 PM   #35
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,749
This is the final prediction from Electoral Calculus:

Tory: 349
Labour: 226
SNP: 41
LibDem: 13
DUP: 10
SF: 6
Plaid: 2
Alliance: 2
Green: 1

Tories picked up another seat, DUP picked up two, to deteriment of SF (2 seats) and LibDem (1 seat).

Well. UK was a nice country, while it lasted.

McHrozni
__________________
لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th December 2019, 02:08 AM   #36
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 27,678
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
This is the final prediction from Electoral Calculus:

Tory: 349
Labour: 226
SNP: 41
LibDem: 13
DUP: 10
SF: 6
Plaid: 2
Alliance: 2
Green: 1

Tories picked up another seat, DUP picked up two, to deteriment of SF (2 seats) and LibDem (1 seat).

Well. UK was a nice country, while it lasted.

McHrozni
....and of course that doesn't take into account "shy Conservatives" and the possible effects of tomorrow's weather.

If it wasn't for the fact that I'll likely also take a financial kicking, I'd be looking on with amused horror at the effects of a Conservative government over the next 5 years as the economy feels the full effects of Brexit and as the UK reinvents itself as a sweatshop to compete with the developing world
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th December 2019, 02:31 AM   #37
Vixen
Penultimate Amazing
 
Vixen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 17,899
"What do we want...?"

"CHRISTMAS!"
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Turkeys for Christmas.jpg (105.6 KB, 7 views)
__________________
Blott en dag, ett ogonblick i sander,
vilken trost vad an som kommer pa! ~ L Sandell
Vixen is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th December 2019, 02:37 AM   #38
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 27,678
Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
"What do we want...?"

"CHRISTMAS!"
The same is true for anyone other than the top n% (where n is a small single digit number).

Even if the Conservatives do lower taxes for the middle classes, this will be more than offset by the long-term costs of borrowing and the additional costs that a woefully underfunded and understaffed NHS, education system and local services will inflict on the population at large.

A less nice person that I would be looking forward to the "gammons'" reaction when the reality of what they voted for hits home.
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th December 2019, 02:42 AM   #39
Dave Rogers
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
 
Dave Rogers's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 30,108
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
A less nice person that I would be looking forward to the "gammons'" reaction when the reality of what they voted for hits home.
The reality will never hit home. It'll turn out to be Labour's fault. It'd turn out to be Labour's fault if they hadn't been in government since Ramsey MacDonald.

Dave
__________________
Inspiring discussion of Sharknado is not a good sign for the audience expectations of your new high-concept SF movie sequel.

- Myriad
Dave Rogers is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 11th December 2019, 02:56 AM   #40
The Don
Penultimate Amazing
 
The Don's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 27,678
Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
The reality will never hit home. It'll turn out to be Labour's fault. It'd turn out to be Labour's fault if they hadn't been in government since Ramsey MacDonald.

Dave
True
The Don is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 06:23 PM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.