General Election Poll (UK)

Vixen · 8th December 2019, 11:28 PM

So, a Conservative majority is expected. What is your prediction?

McHrozni · 8th December 2019, 11:58 PM

This is the movement of the prediction of the past week:

Mid-range last monday:
Tory: 342
Labour: 226
SNP: 44
LibDem: 15
DUP: 8
SF: 7
Plaid: 4
Alliance: 3
Green: 1

Mid-range on friday:
Tory: 340
Labour: 228
(others unchanged)

Mid-range on monday:
Tory: 348
Labour: 225
SNP: 41
LibDem: 13
(others unchanged)

In other words, Tories picked up net three seats from Labour, three from SNP and two from LibDem, the rest was unchanged. The last-minute move towards Tories, who are already ahead, suggest a Tory majority, unless there is a significant amount of voters who were not touched by the polling.

I picked a Tory majority of 11-20 seats based on this.

The prediction could be wrong if there are significant secret Labour voters. This was the case in the 2017 election when polls underestimated Labour voters by about 3-5 percentage points in the week prior to election. However Tory votes this time around are exactly where they were in 2017 and the poll prediction for their performance was accurate for their overall vote percentage. Labour performs several percentage points worse this time around (33% vs 38% in 2017). This suggest a Tory majority, perhaps even a comfortable one.

It is also a condemnation of all things Corbyn.

McHrozni

The Don · 9th December 2019, 02:05 AM

I know I'm a bit of a Cassandra, but then again that doesn't mean I'm always wrong.

I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent (depending on your point of view), botched attempts at tactical voting, a very low turnout among young voters, a complete collapse of the Brexit Party, high turnout among shy Conservatives which could result in a Tory landslide. I voted for 60+ majority but I think it could easily be 100+.

Vixen · 9th December 2019, 02:09 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

I know I'm a bit of a Cassandra, but then again that doesn't mean I'm always wrong.

I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent (depending on your point of view), botched attempts at tactical voting, a very low turnout among young voters, a complete collapse of the Brexit Party, high turnout among shy Conservatives which could result in a Tory landslide. I voted for 60+ majority but I think it could easily be 100+.

Vixen · 9th December 2019, 02:10 AM

Should have included one extra category: turkeys voting for Christmas.

Professor Yaffle · 9th December 2019, 02:35 AM

I predict I'll be hiding under the duvet for the forseeable

McHrozni · 9th December 2019, 03:04 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent

I think this is a false dichtomy. Corbyn seems both to me - hopelessly incompetent and then smeared to appear even worse.

McHrozni

P.J. Denyer · 9th December 2019, 03:17 AM

Originally Posted by McHrozni

I think this is a false dichtomy. Corbyn seems both to me - hopelessly incompetent and then smeared to appear even worse.

McHrozni

And opposed by someone deceitful, self serving and incompetent but built up to appear better. It's a perfect **** storm.

McHrozni · 9th December 2019, 03:34 AM

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer

And opposed by someone deceitful, self serving and incompetent but built up to appear better. It's a perfect **** storm.

Ah no question. If I had to choose between Corbyn and BJ I'd pick ... waterboarding. Or something.
But BJ has a competent propaganda machine at his back and a voter base of deplorables for whom lack of competence is seen as a vital asset. Corbyn does not.

McHrozni

P.J. Denyer · 9th December 2019, 03:39 AM

Originally Posted by McHrozni

I think this is a false dichtomy. Corbyn seems both to me - hopelessly incompetent and then smeared to appear even worse.

McHrozni

Originally Posted by McHrozni

Ah no question. If I had to choose between Corbyn and BJ I'd pick ... waterboarding. Or something.
But BJ has a competent propaganda machine at his back and a voter base of deplorables for whom lack of competence is seen as a vital asset. Corbyn does not.

McHrozni

For me this is one of those situations where even in the absence of someone I'd choose to support the lesser of the two evils is absolutely clear in my opinion.

McHrozni · 9th December 2019, 03:56 AM

Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer

For me this is one of those situations where even in the absence of someone I'd choose to support the lesser of the two evils is absolutely clear in my opinion.

Is it?

Corbyn is probably the lesser evil, but not by much.

McHrozni

The Don · 9th December 2019, 04:59 AM

Originally Posted by McHrozni

Is it?

Corbyn is probably the lesser evil, but not by much.

McHrozni

I think Boris Johnson is orders of magnitude worse. He and the Tories will damage the UK far worse and in their case it will be irrevocable

McHrozni · 9th December 2019, 05:53 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

I think Boris Johnson is orders of magnitude worse. He and the Tories will damage the UK far worse and in their case it will be irrevocable

Maybe, but you need to consider not just Corbyn as PM, but also BJ as leader of the opposition and the fact there is another election coming by late 2024. It's not just the Corbyn premiership, but what comes after - probably a BJ premiership, with all sorts of terrible propaganda baggage and unfulfillable promises.

In the light of that it could be BJ is the lesser evil - Brits will have no one but BJ and Tories to blame for the wreckage that is Brexit, perhaps Labour might get its act together too.

If this was a single, point issue I'd agree BJ is worse - but it's not.

McHrozni

The Don · 9th December 2019, 06:40 AM

Originally Posted by McHrozni

Maybe, but you need to consider not just Corbyn as PM, but also BJ as leader of the opposition and the fact there is another election coming by late 2024. It's not just the Corbyn premiership, but what comes after - probably a BJ premiership, with all sorts of terrible propaganda baggage and unfulfillable promises.

In the light of that it could be BJ is the lesser evil - Brits will have no one but BJ and Tories to blame for the wreckage that is Brexit, perhaps Labour might get its act together too.

If this was a single, point issue I'd agree BJ is worse - but it's not.

McHrozni

If Boris Johnson loses this election, he'll be kicked out as Tory leader, he'll never be PM again IMO. Conservatives cannot abide a loser.

If Labour are in power, there'll be a referendum which will very likely result in Brexit being cancelled (not least because the ERG would oppose a Labour Brexit).

ceptimus · 9th December 2019, 07:03 AM

If there's a working Tory majority, I'd expect Labour to try and replace Corbyn early next year. Corbyn may even decide to stand down, so forcing a leadership election.

The parliamentary Labour faction (MPs) have always wanted rid of Corbyn and have tried twice already. Their preferred candidate would be a Tony Blair Mk 2. Nearest they might get to that would probably be Keir Starmer - even though he's not a Blairite.

The Labour leader is chosen by a "one member one vote" system. The activists and members of the party other than MPs would either want Corbyn again, or another left winger. They're also conscious of not having had a woman leader (other than a temporary stand-in) while the Tories have already had two female Prime Ministers. That makes Rebecca Long-Bailey the likely favourite.

llwyd · 9th December 2019, 07:42 AM

Actually, I think I would prefer a small Conservative majority. Then, maybe,just maybe, they couldn't blame anyone else for failing to deliver the magical promised land of Brexit. Which of course is undeliverable. Who needs Fox News when you have the glorious British press...

The Don · 9th December 2019, 08:07 AM

Originally Posted by llwyd

Actually, I think I would prefer a small Conservative majority. Then, maybe,just maybe, they couldn't blame anyone else for failing to deliver the magical promised land of Brexit. Which of course is undeliverable. Who needs Fox News when you have the glorious British press...

There'll always be someone else to blame.

They'll blame "Remoaners" for stalling the process for three years, losing the momentum they would otherwise have had to secure a fabulous Brexit deal.

They'll blame retired and ex- Conservative MPs for failing to negotiate a fabulous Brexit deal.

They'll blame the EU for not giving the UK a fabulous Brexit deal.

ceptimus · 9th December 2019, 08:11 AM

Politicians always try to blame anyone but themselves. The Tories are still blaming Labour for the state of the UK economy, even though Labour hasn't been in power for over nine years now.

Labour were just as bad when they were in power, and they will be again next time they form a government.

Darat · 9th December 2019, 09:12 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

I know I'm a bit of a Cassandra, but then again that doesn't mean I'm always wrong.

I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent (depending on your point of view), botched attempts at tactical voting, a very low turnout among young voters, a complete collapse of the Brexit Party, high turnout among shy Conservatives which could result in a Tory landslide. I voted for 60+ majority but I think it could easily be 100+.

I was thinking something similar but I've been actually shocked at what I've seen today around here. In a short stretch of a lane of the rather more expensive houses around here (which does mean expensive) there are 6 placards out for Dominic Grieves in their drives or on fences. They are the first placards I've seen up in many a year, perhaps the tories will lose this very safe seat.

It would be astonishing as my gran would say about her local MP, they could stick a blue rosette on a pig and it would get in.

Darat · 9th December 2019, 09:13 AM

Originally Posted by Professor Yaffle

I predict I'll be hiding under the duvet for the forseeable

Hang on isn't a duvet a posh name for those "continental quilts"? Traitor!

Vixen · 9th December 2019, 10:20 AM

Yougov puts Labour ahead of Conservatives in Wales, despite Wales being strongly 'leave'.

40% to 37%

Good graphic here:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/sta...102074368?s=20

GlennB · 9th December 2019, 10:26 AM

And the latest ICM poll has the gap down slightly and into hung parliament territory.

In other news - if the Con majority is exactly 10 then nobody will be right in the thread poll

Ian Osborne · 9th December 2019, 10:40 AM

I voted hung parliament, more in hope than expectation. I predict a Tory majority of 10-20.

Vixen · 9th December 2019, 10:54 AM

Originally Posted by GlennB

And the latest ICM poll has the gap down slightly and into hung parliament territory.

In other news - if the Con majority is exactly 10 then nobody will be right in the thread poll

You'll then win the award of Mr Clever Glenn.

When the DAILY ~~HORROR~~ MAIL admit to Labour catching up, then you know it must be real.

Quote:

The poll, conducted between December 6-9, puts the Tories on 42 per cent - the same rating as the company's last survey published at the start of the month.

But Labour has gained one point and is now on 36 per cent overall, boosting the party's hopes of depriving Mr Johnson of a majority.

A six point lead for the Tories if replicated at the ballot box on Thursday would likely put the UK on the brink of another hung parliament.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...IX-points.html

That poor little four-year-old boy having to be treated on a hospital floor will soon cost Boris some more votes. Heartless rake put the reporter's phone in his pocket when asked about it. All he could come out with was empty soundbites.

GlennB · 9th December 2019, 11:15 AM

Originally Posted by Vixen

That poor little four-year-old boy having to be treated on a hospital floor will soon cost Boris some more votes. Heartless rake put the reporter's phone in his pocket when asked about it. All he could come out with was empty soundbites.

MrsB is itching for a late scandal to cost Johnson dearly. This is relatively minor, but its effect depends on how widely it's reported in the rightist tabloids.

P.J. Denyer · 9th December 2019, 01:15 PM

Originally Posted by The Don

If Boris Johnson loses this election, he'll be kicked out as Tory leader, he'll never be PM again IMO. Conservatives cannot abide a loser.

If Labour are in power, there'll be a referendum which will very likely result in Brexit being cancelled (not least because the ERG would oppose a Labour Brexit).

This, Johnson is backers will only support him so long as they think he can still make good on the promises he's making. Separate him from power and they'll turn on him faster than.... Well, you know that scene in Jaws (book not movie) when Quint disembowels a live blue shark and throws it back in with it's fellows?

Originally Posted by The Don

There'll always be someone else to blame.

They'll blame "Remoaners" for stalling the process for three years, losing the momentum they would otherwise have had to secure a fabulous Brexit deal.

They'll blame retired and ex- Conservative MPs for failing to negotiate a fabulous Brexit deal.

They'll blame the EU for not giving the UK a fabulous Brexit deal.

And with so much of the media on their side they'll get away with it again.

P.J. Denyer · 9th December 2019, 01:19 PM

Originally Posted by GlennB

MrsB is itching for a late scandal to cost Johnson dearly. This is relatively minor, but its effect depends on how widely it's reported in the rightist tabloids.

In print it's minor, the actual footage of him refusing to look at the picture and instantly changing the subject to preprepared soundbites was pretty stomach churning. The lack of basic human empathy shone through.

Lothian · 9th December 2019, 01:20 PM

Not enough options as I would only like the Tories hung.

McHrozni · 9th December 2019, 11:22 PM

Originally Posted by The Don

If Boris Johnson loses this election, he'll be kicked out as Tory leader, he'll never be PM again IMO. Conservatives cannot abide a loser.

If Labour are in power, there'll be a referendum which will very likely result in Brexit being cancelled (not least because the ERG would oppose a Labour Brexit).

If that's true then Corbyn is the lesser evil.

I have some doubts about both though. We'll see, I would hope.

McHrozni

Vixen · 10th December 2019, 10:29 AM

Latest poll news:

Quote:

The Savanta ComRes survey, conducted between December 6-8, puts the Tories on 43 per cent and Labour on 36 per cent.

If such numbers were replicated on polling day it could lead to a hung parliament, with the Electoral Calculus prediction website suggesting it would leave the Conservatives a handful of seats short of a majority.

Tory strategists are concerned Labour may not need to gain a single seat to oust Mr Johnson, with the party's private polling showing that losing just 12 constituencies to the SNP and Lib Dems could put Mr Corbyn in Number

Boris Johnson appears to be getting more and more desperate by the day. I thought it was a spoof when I saw what looked like a photoshopped BoJo come crashing through a wall in a digger with 'Get Brexit Done' and a union flag. To my astonishment, it turns out it is the latest Tory PR.

Jack by the hedge · 10th December 2019, 11:18 AM

Originally Posted by Vixen

When the DAILY ~~HORROR~~ MAIL admit to Labour catching up, then you know it must be real.

Or perhaps more likely the Mail want to scare Tory voters into turning out.

If they're too confident of winning they might get complacent, not bother to vote and lose some seats (if the youth vote bothers to get out of bed this time around).

ceptimus · 10th December 2019, 12:10 PM

Looks like voting day will have poor weather - strong wind and heavy rain. No doubt that will make some voters less likely to venture out to the polling stations to vote. It will be interesting to see which way the psephologists think that will swing the vote.

Vixen · 10th December 2019, 01:59 PM

Originally Posted by ceptimus

Looks like voting day will have poor weather - strong wind and heavy rain. No doubt that will make some voters less likely to venture out to the polling stations to vote. It will be interesting to see which way the psephologists think that will swing the vote.

IMV it'll be the most determined that go out and vote, which as to be in favour of Labour and LibDem/marginals. I wouldn't underestimate the older Brexiteer generation though.

Seismosaurus · 10th December 2019, 02:25 PM

Conservative majority, in the 15-25 range. Not really based on anything but guesswork and a few glances at the polls.

McHrozni · 10th December 2019, 11:48 PM

This is the final prediction from Electoral Calculus:

Tory: 349
Labour: 226
SNP: 41
LibDem: 13
DUP: 10
SF: 6
Plaid: 2
Alliance: 2
Green: 1

Tories picked up another seat, DUP picked up two, to deteriment of SF (2 seats) and LibDem (1 seat).

Well. UK was a nice country, while it lasted.

McHrozni

The Don · 11th December 2019, 02:08 AM

Originally Posted by McHrozni

This is the final prediction from Electoral Calculus:

Tory: 349
Labour: 226
SNP: 41
LibDem: 13
DUP: 10
SF: 6
Plaid: 2
Alliance: 2
Green: 1

Tories picked up another seat, DUP picked up two, to deteriment of SF (2 seats) and LibDem (1 seat).

Well. UK was a nice country, while it lasted.

McHrozni

....and of course that doesn't take into account "shy Conservatives" and the possible effects of tomorrow's weather.

If it wasn't for the fact that I'll likely also take a financial kicking, I'd be looking on with amused horror at the effects of a Conservative government over the next 5 years as the economy feels the full effects of Brexit and as the UK reinvents itself as a sweatshop to compete with the developing world

Vixen · 11th December 2019, 02:31 AM

"What do we want...?"

"CHRISTMAS!"

The Don · 11th December 2019, 02:37 AM

Originally Posted by Vixen

"What do we want...?"

"CHRISTMAS!"

The same is true for anyone other than the top n% (where n is a small single digit number).

Even if the Conservatives do lower taxes for the middle classes, this will be more than offset by the long-term costs of borrowing and the additional costs that a woefully underfunded and understaffed NHS, education system and local services will inflict on the population at large.

A less nice person that I would be looking forward to the "gammons'" reaction when the reality of what they voted for hits home.

Dave Rogers · 11th December 2019, 02:42 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

A less nice person that I would be looking forward to the "gammons'" reaction when the reality of what they voted for hits home.

The reality will never hit home. It'll turn out to be Labour's fault. It'd turn out to be Labour's fault if they hadn't been in government since Ramsey MacDonald.

Dave

The Don · 11th December 2019, 02:56 AM

Originally Posted by Dave Rogers

The reality will never hit home. It'll turn out to be Labour's fault. It'd turn out to be Labour's fault if they hadn't been in government since Ramsey MacDonald.

Dave

True

Conservative Majority <10	4	10.81%
Conservative Majority between 11 to 20	10	27.03%
Conservative Majority between 21 - 30	2	5.41%
Conservative Majority between 31 - 40	2	5.41%
Conservative Majority between 41 - 50	2	5.41%
Conservative Majority between 51 - 60	0	0%
Conservative Majority >61	1	2.70%
Labour close majority	1	2.70%
Labour majority > 10	0	0%
Hung Parliament	14	37.84%
Liberal Democrat majority	0	0%
Green Majority	0	0%
Other Majority - Brexit Party/Independents/Others	0	0%
Election? What Election?	1	2.70%
Voters: 37. You may not vote on this poll

8th December 2019, 11:28 PM	#1
Vixen Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Suomi Posts: 20,268	General Election Poll (UK) So, a Conservative majority is expected. What is your prediction?
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8th December 2019, 11:58 PM	#2
McHrozni Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 11,919	This is the movement of the prediction of the past week: Mid-range last monday: Tory: 342 Labour: 226 SNP: 44 LibDem: 15 DUP: 8 SF: 7 Plaid: 4 Alliance: 3 Green: 1 Mid-range on friday: Tory: 340 Labour: 228 (others unchanged) Mid-range on monday: Tory: 348 Labour: 225 SNP: 41 LibDem: 13 (others unchanged) In other words, Tories picked up net three seats from Labour, three from SNP and two from LibDem, the rest was unchanged. The last-minute move towards Tories, who are already ahead, suggest a Tory majority, unless there is a significant amount of voters who were not touched by the polling. I picked a Tory majority of 11-20 seats based on this. The prediction could be wrong if there are significant secret Labour voters. This was the case in the 2017 election when polls underestimated Labour voters by about 3-5 percentage points in the week prior to election. However Tory votes this time around are exactly where they were in 2017 and the poll prediction for their performance was accurate for their overall vote percentage. Labour performs several percentage points worse this time around (33% vs 38% in 2017). This suggest a Tory majority, perhaps even a comfortable one. It is also a condemnation of all things Corbyn. McHrozni
	__________________ لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه Last edited by McHrozni; 9th December 2019 at 12:25 AM.

9th December 2019, 02:09 AM	#4
Vixen Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Suomi Posts: 20,268	Originally Posted by The Don I know I'm a bit of a Cassandra, but then again that doesn't mean I'm always wrong. I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent (depending on your point of view), botched attempts at tactical voting, a very low turnout among young voters, a complete collapse of the Brexit Party, high turnout among shy Conservatives which could result in a Tory landslide. I voted for 60+ majority but I think it could easily be 100+.
	__________________ Blott en dag, ett ögonblick i sänder, vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på!

9th December 2019, 02:10 AM	#5
Vixen Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Suomi Posts: 20,268	Should have included one extra category: turkeys voting for Christmas.
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9th December 2019, 02:05 AM	#3
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 31,058	I know I'm a bit of a Cassandra, but then again that doesn't mean I'm always wrong. I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent (depending on your point of view), botched attempts at tactical voting, a very low turnout among young voters, a complete collapse of the Brexit Party, high turnout among shy Conservatives which could result in a Tory landslide. I voted for 60+ majority but I think it could easily be 100+.

9th December 2019, 02:35 AM	#6
Professor Yaffle Butterbeans and Breadcrumbs Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Emily's shop Posts: 17,613	I predict I'll be hiding under the duvet for the forseeable
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9th December 2019, 03:04 AM	#7
McHrozni Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 11,919	Originally Posted by The Don I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent I think this is a false dichtomy. Corbyn seems both to me - hopelessly incompetent and then smeared to appear even worse. McHrozni
	__________________ لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

9th December 2019, 03:17 AM	#8
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,725	Originally Posted by McHrozni I think this is a false dichtomy. Corbyn seems both to me - hopelessly incompetent and then smeared to appear even worse. McHrozni And opposed by someone deceitful, self serving and incompetent but built up to appear better. It's a perfect **** storm.
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,725	__________________ "I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills

9th December 2019, 03:34 AM	#9
McHrozni Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 11,919	Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer And opposed by someone deceitful, self serving and incompetent but built up to appear better. It's a perfect **** storm. Ah no question. If I had to choose between Corbyn and BJ I'd pick ... waterboarding. Or something. But BJ has a competent propaganda machine at his back and a voter base of deplorables for whom lack of competence is seen as a vital asset. Corbyn does not. McHrozni
	__________________ لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه Last edited by McHrozni; 9th December 2019 at 03:35 AM.

9th December 2019, 03:39 AM	#10
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,725	Originally Posted by McHrozni I think this is a false dichtomy. Corbyn seems both to me - hopelessly incompetent and then smeared to appear even worse. McHrozni Originally Posted by McHrozni Ah no question. If I had to choose between Corbyn and BJ I'd pick ... waterboarding. Or something. But BJ has a competent propaganda machine at his back and a voter base of deplorables for whom lack of competence is seen as a vital asset. Corbyn does not. McHrozni For me this is one of those situations where even in the absence of someone I'd choose to support the lesser of the two evils is absolutely clear in my opinion.
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,725	__________________ "I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills

9th December 2019, 03:56 AM	#11
McHrozni Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 11,919	Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer For me this is one of those situations where even in the absence of someone I'd choose to support the lesser of the two evils is absolutely clear in my opinion. Is it? Corbyn is probably the lesser evil, but not by much. McHrozni
	__________________ لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

9th December 2019, 04:59 AM	#12
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 31,058	Originally Posted by McHrozni Is it? Corbyn is probably the lesser evil, but not by much. McHrozni I think Boris Johnson is orders of magnitude worse. He and the Tories will damage the UK far worse and in their case it will be irrevocable

9th December 2019, 05:53 AM	#13
McHrozni Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 11,919	Originally Posted by The Don I think Boris Johnson is orders of magnitude worse. He and the Tories will damage the UK far worse and in their case it will be irrevocable Maybe, but you need to consider not just Corbyn as PM, but also BJ as leader of the opposition and the fact there is another election coming by late 2024. It's not just the Corbyn premiership, but what comes after - probably a BJ premiership, with all sorts of terrible propaganda baggage and unfulfillable promises. In the light of that it could be BJ is the lesser evil - Brits will have no one but BJ and Tories to blame for the wreckage that is Brexit, perhaps Labour might get its act together too. If this was a single, point issue I'd agree BJ is worse - but it's not. McHrozni
	__________________ لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه

9th December 2019, 06:40 AM	#14
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 31,058	Originally Posted by McHrozni Maybe, but you need to consider not just Corbyn as PM, but also BJ as leader of the opposition and the fact there is another election coming by late 2024. It's not just the Corbyn premiership, but what comes after - probably a BJ premiership, with all sorts of terrible propaganda baggage and unfulfillable promises. In the light of that it could be BJ is the lesser evil - Brits will have no one but BJ and Tories to blame for the wreckage that is Brexit, perhaps Labour might get its act together too. If this was a single, point issue I'd agree BJ is worse - but it's not. McHrozni If Boris Johnson loses this election, he'll be kicked out as Tory leader, he'll never be PM again IMO. Conservatives cannot abide a loser. If Labour are in power, there'll be a referendum which will very likely result in Brexit being cancelled (not least because the ERG would oppose a Labour Brexit).

9th December 2019, 07:03 AM	#15
ceptimus puzzler Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 6,460	If there's a working Tory majority, I'd expect Labour to try and replace Corbyn early next year. Corbyn may even decide to stand down, so forcing a leadership election. The parliamentary Labour faction (MPs) have always wanted rid of Corbyn and have tried twice already. Their preferred candidate would be a Tony Blair Mk 2. Nearest they might get to that would probably be Keir Starmer - even though he's not a Blairite. The Labour leader is chosen by a "one member one vote" system. The activists and members of the party other than MPs would either want Corbyn again, or another left winger. They're also conscious of not having had a woman leader (other than a temporary stand-in) while the Tories have already had two female Prime Ministers. That makes Rebecca Long-Bailey the likely favourite.
ceptimus puzzler Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 6,460	Last edited by ceptimus; 9th December 2019 at 07:07 AM.

9th December 2019, 07:42 AM	#16
llwyd Muse Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 734	Actually, I think I would prefer a small Conservative majority. Then, maybe,just maybe, they couldn't blame anyone else for failing to deliver the magical promised land of Brexit. Which of course is undeliverable. Who needs Fox News when you have the glorious British press...
llwyd Muse Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 734

9th December 2019, 08:07 AM	#17
The Don Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Sir Fynwy Posts: 31,058	Originally Posted by llwyd Actually, I think I would prefer a small Conservative majority. Then, maybe,just maybe, they couldn't blame anyone else for failing to deliver the magical promised land of Brexit. Which of course is undeliverable. Who needs Fox News when you have the glorious British press... There'll always be someone else to blame. They'll blame "Remoaners" for stalling the process for three years, losing the momentum they would otherwise have had to secure a fabulous Brexit deal. They'll blame retired and ex- Conservative MPs for failing to negotiate a fabulous Brexit deal. They'll blame the EU for not giving the UK a fabulous Brexit deal.

9th December 2019, 08:11 AM	#18
ceptimus puzzler Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 6,460	Politicians always try to blame anyone but themselves. The Tories are still blaming Labour for the state of the UK economy, even though Labour hasn't been in power for over nine years now. Labour were just as bad when they were in power, and they will be again next time they form a government.
ceptimus puzzler Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 6,460

9th December 2019, 09:12 AM	#19
Darat Lackey Administrator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 96,138	Originally Posted by The Don I know I'm a bit of a Cassandra, but then again that doesn't mean I'm always wrong. I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent (depending on your point of view), botched attempts at tactical voting, a very low turnout among young voters, a complete collapse of the Brexit Party, high turnout among shy Conservatives which could result in a Tory landslide. I voted for 60+ majority but I think it could easily be 100+. I was thinking something similar but I've been actually shocked at what I've seen today around here. In a short stretch of a lane of the rather more expensive houses around here (which does mean expensive) there are 6 placards out for Dominic Grieves in their drives or on fences. They are the first placards I've seen up in many a year, perhaps the tories will lose this very safe seat. It would be astonishing as my gran would say about her local MP, they could stick a blue rosette on a pig and it would get in.
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9th December 2019, 09:13 AM	#20
Darat Lackey Administrator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 96,138	Originally Posted by Professor Yaffle I predict I'll be hiding under the duvet for the forseeable Hang on isn't a duvet a posh name for those "continental quilts"? Traitor!
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9th December 2019, 10:20 AM	#21
Vixen Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Suomi Posts: 20,268	Yougov puts Labour ahead of Conservatives in Wales, despite Wales being strongly 'leave'. 40% to 37% Good graphic here: https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/sta...102074368?s=20
	__________________ Blott en dag, ett ögonblick i sänder, vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på!

9th December 2019, 10:26 AM	#22
GlennB Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Usk, Wales Posts: 26,256	And the latest ICM poll has the gap down slightly and into hung parliament territory. In other news - if the Con majority is exactly 10 then nobody will be right in the thread poll
	__________________ "Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut

9th December 2019, 10:40 AM	#23
Ian Osborne JREF Kid Tagger Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 8,223	I voted hung parliament, more in hope than expectation. I predict a Tory majority of 10-20.
	__________________ "Faith without doubt leads to moral arrogance, the eternal pratfall of the religiously convinced" - Joe Klein, Time magazine "The fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." - Carl Sagan

9th December 2019, 10:54 AM	#24
Vixen Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Suomi Posts: 20,268	Originally Posted by GlennB And the latest ICM poll has the gap down slightly and into hung parliament territory. In other news - if the Con majority is exactly 10 then nobody will be right in the thread poll You'll then win the award of Mr Clever Glenn. When the DAILY ~~HORROR~~ MAIL admit to Labour catching up, then you know it must be real. Quote: The poll, conducted between December 6-9, puts the Tories on 42 per cent - the same rating as the company's last survey published at the start of the month. But Labour has gained one point and is now on 36 per cent overall, boosting the party's hopes of depriving Mr Johnson of a majority. A six point lead for the Tories if replicated at the ballot box on Thursday would likely put the UK on the brink of another hung parliament. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...IX-points.html That poor little four-year-old boy having to be treated on a hospital floor will soon cost Boris some more votes. Heartless rake put the reporter's phone in his pocket when asked about it. All he could come out with was empty soundbites.
	__________________ Blott en dag, ett ögonblick i sänder, vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på!

9th December 2019, 11:15 AM	#25
GlennB Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: Usk, Wales Posts: 26,256	Originally Posted by Vixen That poor little four-year-old boy having to be treated on a hospital floor will soon cost Boris some more votes. Heartless rake put the reporter's phone in his pocket when asked about it. All he could come out with was empty soundbites. MrsB is itching for a late scandal to cost Johnson dearly. This is relatively minor, but its effect depends on how widely it's reported in the rightist tabloids.
	__________________ "Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 9/11 truth is a clock with no hands." - Beachnut

9th December 2019, 01:15 PM	#26
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,725	Originally Posted by The Don If Boris Johnson loses this election, he'll be kicked out as Tory leader, he'll never be PM again IMO. Conservatives cannot abide a loser. If Labour are in power, there'll be a referendum which will very likely result in Brexit being cancelled (not least because the ERG would oppose a Labour Brexit). This, Johnson is backers will only support him so long as they think he can still make good on the promises he's making. Separate him from power and they'll turn on him faster than.... Well, you know that scene in Jaws (book not movie) when Quint disembowels a live blue shark and throws it back in with it's fellows? Originally Posted by The Don There'll always be someone else to blame. They'll blame "Remoaners" for stalling the process for three years, losing the momentum they would otherwise have had to secure a fabulous Brexit deal. They'll blame retired and ex- Conservative MPs for failing to negotiate a fabulous Brexit deal. They'll blame the EU for not giving the UK a fabulous Brexit deal. And with so much of the media on their side they'll get away with it again.
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,725	__________________ "I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills

9th December 2019, 01:19 PM	#27
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,725	Originally Posted by GlennB MrsB is itching for a late scandal to cost Johnson dearly. This is relatively minor, but its effect depends on how widely it's reported in the rightist tabloids. In print it's minor, the actual footage of him refusing to look at the picture and instantly changing the subject to preprepared soundbites was pretty stomach churning. The lack of basic human empathy shone through.
P.J. Denyer Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,725	__________________ "I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills

9th December 2019, 01:20 PM	#28
Lothian should be banned Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Earth, specifically the crusty bit on the outside Posts: 15,945	Not enough options as I would only like the Tories hung.

9th December 2019, 11:22 PM	#29
McHrozni Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 11,919	Originally Posted by The Don If Boris Johnson loses this election, he'll be kicked out as Tory leader, he'll never be PM again IMO. Conservatives cannot abide a loser. If Labour are in power, there'll be a referendum which will very likely result in Brexit being cancelled (not least because the ERG would oppose a Labour Brexit). If that's true then Corbyn is the lesser evil. I have some doubts about both though. We'll see, I would hope. McHrozni
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10th December 2019, 10:29 AM	#30
Vixen Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Suomi Posts: 20,268	Latest poll news: Quote: The Savanta ComRes survey, conducted between December 6-8, puts the Tories on 43 per cent and Labour on 36 per cent. If such numbers were replicated on polling day it could lead to a hung parliament, with the Electoral Calculus prediction website suggesting it would leave the Conservatives a handful of seats short of a majority. Tory strategists are concerned Labour may not need to gain a single seat to oust Mr Johnson, with the party's private polling showing that losing just 12 constituencies to the SNP and Lib Dems could put Mr Corbyn in Number Boris Johnson appears to be getting more and more desperate by the day. I thought it was a spoof when I saw what looked like a photoshopped BoJo come crashing through a wall in a digger with 'Get Brexit Done' and a union flag. To my astonishment, it turns out it is the latest Tory PR.
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10th December 2019, 11:18 AM	#31
Jack by the hedge Safely Ignored Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 10,788	Originally Posted by Vixen When the DAILY ~~HORROR~~ MAIL admit to Labour catching up, then you know it must be real. Or perhaps more likely the Mail want to scare Tory voters into turning out. If they're too confident of winning they might get complacent, not bother to vote and lose some seats (if the youth vote bothers to get out of bed this time around).

10th December 2019, 12:10 PM	#32
ceptimus puzzler Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 6,460	Looks like voting day will have poor weather - strong wind and heavy rain. No doubt that will make some voters less likely to venture out to the polling stations to vote. It will be interesting to see which way the psephologists think that will swing the vote.
ceptimus puzzler Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 6,460

10th December 2019, 01:59 PM	#33
Vixen Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Suomi Posts: 20,268	Originally Posted by ceptimus Looks like voting day will have poor weather - strong wind and heavy rain. No doubt that will make some voters less likely to venture out to the polling stations to vote. It will be interesting to see which way the psephologists think that will swing the vote. IMV it'll be the most determined that go out and vote, which as to be in favour of Labour and LibDem/marginals. I wouldn't underestimate the older Brexiteer generation though.
	__________________ Blott en dag, ett ögonblick i sänder, vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på!

10th December 2019, 02:25 PM	#34
Seismosaurus Philosopher Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 6,092	Conservative majority, in the 15-25 range. Not really based on anything but guesswork and a few glances at the polls.
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