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View Poll Results: General Election: What do you predict the outcome will be? | ![]() |
Conservative Majority <10 |
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4 | 10.81% |
Conservative Majority between 11 to 20 |
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10 | 27.03% |
Conservative Majority between 21 - 30 |
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2 | 5.41% |
Conservative Majority between 31 - 40 |
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2 | 5.41% |
Conservative Majority between 41 - 50 |
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2 | 5.41% |
Conservative Majority between 51 - 60 |
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0 | 0% |
Conservative Majority >61 |
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1 | 2.70% |
Labour close majority |
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1 | 2.70% |
Labour majority > 10 |
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0 | 0% |
Hung Parliament |
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14 | 37.84% |
Liberal Democrat majority |
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0 | 0% |
Green Majority |
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0 | 0% |
Other Majority - Brexit Party/Independents/Others |
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0 | 0% |
Election? What Election? |
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1 | 2.70% |
Voters: 37. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 20,268
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General Election Poll (UK)
So, a Conservative majority is expected. What is your prediction?
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#2 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
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This is the movement of the prediction of the past week:
Mid-range last monday: Tory: 342 Labour: 226 SNP: 44 LibDem: 15 DUP: 8 SF: 7 Plaid: 4 Alliance: 3 Green: 1 Mid-range on friday: Tory: 340 Labour: 228 (others unchanged) Mid-range on monday: Tory: 348 Labour: 225 SNP: 41 LibDem: 13 (others unchanged) In other words, Tories picked up net three seats from Labour, three from SNP and two from LibDem, the rest was unchanged. The last-minute move towards Tories, who are already ahead, suggest a Tory majority, unless there is a significant amount of voters who were not touched by the polling. I picked a Tory majority of 11-20 seats based on this. The prediction could be wrong if there are significant secret Labour voters. This was the case in the 2017 election when polls underestimated Labour voters by about 3-5 percentage points in the week prior to election. However Tory votes this time around are exactly where they were in 2017 and the poll prediction for their performance was accurate for their overall vote percentage. Labour performs several percentage points worse this time around (33% vs 38% in 2017). This suggest a Tory majority, perhaps even a comfortable one. It is also a condemnation of all things Corbyn. McHrozni |
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#3 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,058
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I know I'm a bit of a Cassandra, but then again that doesn't mean I'm always wrong.
![]() I fear that there may be a "perfect storm" of Corbyn being smeared or incompetent (depending on your point of view), botched attempts at tactical voting, a very low turnout among young voters, a complete collapse of the Brexit Party, high turnout among shy Conservatives which could result in a Tory landslide. I voted for 60+ majority but I think it could easily be 100+. |
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#4 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 20,268
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#5 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 20,268
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Should have included one extra category: turkeys voting for Christmas.
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#6 |
Butterbeans and Breadcrumbs
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Emily's shop
Posts: 17,613
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I predict I'll be hiding under the duvet for the forseeable
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#7 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
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#8 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 7,725
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"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills |
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#9 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
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#10 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 7,725
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"I know my brain cannot tell me what to think." - Scorpion "Nebulous means Nebulous" - Adam Hills |
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#11 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
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لا إله إلا رجل والعلوم والتكنولوجيا وأنبيائه |
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#12 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,058
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#13 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
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Maybe, but you need to consider not just Corbyn as PM, but also BJ as leader of the opposition and the fact there is another election coming by late 2024. It's not just the Corbyn premiership, but what comes after - probably a BJ premiership, with all sorts of terrible propaganda baggage and unfulfillable promises.
In the light of that it could be BJ is the lesser evil - Brits will have no one but BJ and Tories to blame for the wreckage that is Brexit, perhaps Labour might get its act together too. If this was a single, point issue I'd agree BJ is worse - but it's not. McHrozni |
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#14 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,058
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If Boris Johnson loses this election, he'll be kicked out as Tory leader, he'll never be PM again IMO. Conservatives cannot abide a loser.
If Labour are in power, there'll be a referendum which will very likely result in Brexit being cancelled (not least because the ERG would oppose a Labour Brexit). |
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#15 |
puzzler
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 6,460
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If there's a working Tory majority, I'd expect Labour to try and replace Corbyn early next year. Corbyn may even decide to stand down, so forcing a leadership election.
The parliamentary Labour faction (MPs) have always wanted rid of Corbyn and have tried twice already. Their preferred candidate would be a Tony Blair Mk 2. Nearest they might get to that would probably be Keir Starmer - even though he's not a Blairite. The Labour leader is chosen by a "one member one vote" system. The activists and members of the party other than MPs would either want Corbyn again, or another left winger. They're also conscious of not having had a woman leader (other than a temporary stand-in) while the Tories have already had two female Prime Ministers. That makes Rebecca Long-Bailey the likely favourite. |
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#16 |
Muse
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 734
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Actually, I think I would prefer a small Conservative majority. Then, maybe,just maybe, they couldn't blame anyone else for failing to deliver the magical promised land of Brexit. Which of course is undeliverable. Who needs Fox News when you have the glorious British press...
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#17 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,058
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There'll always be someone else to blame.
![]() They'll blame "Remoaners" for stalling the process for three years, losing the momentum they would otherwise have had to secure a fabulous Brexit deal. They'll blame retired and ex- Conservative MPs for failing to negotiate a fabulous Brexit deal. They'll blame the EU for not giving the UK a fabulous Brexit deal. |
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#18 |
puzzler
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 6,460
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Politicians always try to blame anyone but themselves. The Tories are still blaming Labour for the state of the UK economy, even though Labour hasn't been in power for over nine years now.
Labour were just as bad when they were in power, and they will be again next time they form a government. |
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#19 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 96,138
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I was thinking something similar but I've been actually shocked at what I've seen today around here. In a short stretch of a lane of the rather more expensive houses around here (which does mean expensive) there are 6 placards out for Dominic Grieves in their drives or on fences. They are the first placards I've seen up in many a year, perhaps the tories will lose this very safe seat.
It would be astonishing as my gran would say about her local MP, they could stick a blue rosette on a pig and it would get in. |
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#20 |
Lackey
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 96,138
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#21 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 20,268
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Yougov puts Labour ahead of Conservatives in Wales, despite Wales being strongly 'leave'.
40% to 37% Good graphic here: https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/sta...102074368?s=20 |
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#22 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Usk, Wales
Posts: 26,256
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And the latest ICM poll has the gap down slightly and into hung parliament territory.
In other news - if the Con majority is exactly 10 then nobody will be right in the thread poll ![]() |
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#23 |
JREF Kid
Tagger
Join Date: Aug 2001
Posts: 8,223
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I voted hung parliament, more in hope than expectation. I predict a Tory majority of 10-20.
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#24 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 20,268
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You'll then win the award of Mr Clever Glenn.
When the DAILY
Quote:
That poor little four-year-old boy having to be treated on a hospital floor will soon cost Boris some more votes. Heartless rake put the reporter's phone in his pocket when asked about it. All he could come out with was empty soundbites. |
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#25 |
Loggerheaded, earth-vexing fustilarian
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Usk, Wales
Posts: 26,256
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#26 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 7,725
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This, Johnson is backers will only support him so long as they think he can still make good on the promises he's making. Separate him from power and they'll turn on him faster than.... Well, you know that scene in Jaws (book not movie) when Quint disembowels a live blue shark and throws it back in with it's fellows?
And with so much of the media on their side they'll get away with it again. |
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#27 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 7,725
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#28 |
should be banned
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Earth, specifically the crusty bit on the outside
Posts: 15,945
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Not enough options as I would only like the Tories hung.
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#29 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
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#30 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 20,268
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Latest poll news:
Quote:
Boris Johnson appears to be getting more and more desperate by the day. I thought it was a spoof when I saw what looked like a photoshopped BoJo come crashing through a wall in a digger with 'Get Brexit Done' and a union flag. To my astonishment, it turns out it is the latest Tory PR. |
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#31 |
Safely Ignored
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 10,788
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#32 |
puzzler
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 6,460
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Looks like voting day will have poor weather - strong wind and heavy rain. No doubt that will make some voters less likely to venture out to the polling stations to vote. It will be interesting to see which way the psephologists think that will swing the vote.
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#33 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 20,268
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#34 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 6,092
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Conservative majority, in the 15-25 range. Not really based on anything but guesswork and a few glances at the polls.
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#35 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 11,919
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This is the final prediction from Electoral Calculus:
Tory: 349 Labour: 226 SNP: 41 LibDem: 13 DUP: 10 SF: 6 Plaid: 2 Alliance: 2 Green: 1 Tories picked up another seat, DUP picked up two, to deteriment of SF (2 seats) and LibDem (1 seat). Well. UK was a nice country, while it lasted. McHrozni |
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#36 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,058
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....and of course that doesn't take into account "shy Conservatives" and the possible effects of tomorrow's weather.
If it wasn't for the fact that I'll likely also take a financial kicking, I'd be looking on with amused horror at the effects of a Conservative government over the next 5 years as the economy feels the full effects of Brexit and as the UK reinvents itself as a sweatshop to compete with the developing world ![]() |
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#37 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Suomi
Posts: 20,268
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"What do we want...?"
"CHRISTMAS!" |
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#38 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,058
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The same is true for anyone other than the top n% (where n is a small single digit number).
Even if the Conservatives do lower taxes for the middle classes, this will be more than offset by the long-term costs of borrowing and the additional costs that a woefully underfunded and understaffed NHS, education system and local services will inflict on the population at large. A less nice person that I would be looking forward to the "gammons'" reaction when the reality of what they voted for hits home. ![]() |
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#39 |
Bandaged ice that stampedes inexpensively through a scribbled morning waving necessary ankles
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Cair Paravel, according to XKCD
Posts: 32,252
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#40 |
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Sir Fynwy
Posts: 31,058
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