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Old 10th May 2017, 11:53 PM   #1721
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Will someone please tell me when I can start to expect Brexit-related good news ?
After 2031 after the crisis after effect are over.
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Old 10th May 2017, 11:55 PM   #1722
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Maybe, unless of course one of the lawmakers decides to make it difficult, as is the case here.

If Euro-denominated business leaves London that's up to 100,000 London City jobs that will move to the continent. That's quite strong incentive for EU to pursue legislative action that will see those jobs move. UK is lobbying hard against it, but the arguments it puts forward are, well, pathetic to put it mildly: "It will cause disruption to the market and cause it to fragment!!1".

This is true, sure. But if ECJ doesn't have sovereignty over the Euro clearing the potential for disruption is much greater and fragmentation of the market will cause, at worst, some inefficiency.

Should clearing move to Paris EU kills several more birds with one stone - strengthening France at a crucial time when it needs reforms and reinforcing the hand of one of the most pro-EU leaders at again a critical time for the union and the Euro and it wouldn't even fragment the market. Can one of our brave Brexiteers (if we still have any) say what will UK offer in return for not pursuing this goal?

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Old 10th May 2017, 11:55 PM   #1723
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Will someone please tell me when I can start to expect Brexit-related good news ?
Immediately after you move to the Eurozone, I suspect.

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Old 10th May 2017, 11:58 PM   #1724
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Will someone please tell me when I can start to expect Brexit-related good news ?
Have you not read the leaked Labour manifesto.

Quote:
We will scrap the Conservatives' Brexit White Paper and replace it with fresh negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union - which are essential for maintaining industries, jobs and businesses in Britain
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Old 11th May 2017, 12:01 AM   #1725
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
If Euro-denominated business leaves London that's up to 100,000 London City jobs that will move to the continent. That's quite strong incentive for EU to pursue legislative action that will see those jobs move.
It's is also very hard to write legislation to make the international financial markets do what you want without imposing capital controls. Hence the original Eurodollar market developing in London.
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Old 11th May 2017, 12:06 AM   #1726
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
It's is also very hard to write legislation to make the international financial markets do what you want without imposing capital controls. Hence the original Eurodollar market developing in London.
It's a one-off case and highly specific issue. EU could, for example, demand at least 80% of Euro-denominated clearing by any major bank (and define what a major bank is) is done in countries under ECJ jurisdiction and Euro as the national currency. Banks would then be forced to do their clearing in Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, Dublin and elsewhere rather than in London and the market would be forced to move.

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Old 11th May 2017, 12:27 AM   #1727
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
It's is also very hard to write legislation to make the international financial markets do what you want without imposing capital controls. Hence the original Eurodollar market developing in London.
I'm not sure about that. Obviously complex issue but part of the strength of the EU bloc is that they have ways and means of enforcing such things through the need to have access to their market.

They can legislate that any bank operating in the eu must do x and while they can't stop banks doing x most will comply or risk fines or exclusion from the Eu.
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Old 11th May 2017, 12:34 AM   #1728
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It's a one-off case and highly specific issue. EU could, for example, demand at least 80% of Euro-denominated clearing by any major bank (and define what a major bank is) is done in countries under ECJ jurisdiction and Euro as the national currency. Banks would then be forced to do their clearing in Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, Dublin and elsewhere rather than in London and the market would be forced to move.
As I said, you just change the instruments being traded to be denominated (and have an FX contract on the side to balance it up) and you escape the rules.

It's also difficult to make such rules so that they only affect London, and not also New York and Tokyo/Singapore.
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Old 11th May 2017, 12:42 AM   #1729
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
As I said, you just change the instruments being traded to be denominated (and have an FX contract on the side to balance it up) and you escape the rules.
Yes, or just use a small bank or ...

The thing is, the market will follow the path of least resistance. If the path of least resistance is to relocate London business to the continent, this is precisely what is going to happen. It might take a few years, perhaps up to a decade, but it's going to happen. EU is in no rush to grab all the London City business over the next year or two, it doesn't have the infrastructure to do so. It will be happy with crumbs for now while it prepares the groundwork for the steaks.

UK has to prevent this in some way, but EU was opposed to London clearing so much Euros when UK was a member of the EU. With UK out of EU financial regulation and out of ECJ jurisdiction, it's going to happen one way or another. In their pathetic quest to boost 13% of British economy, the brave Brexiteers may well wreck the 82% of the economy the country relies on.

Quote:
It's also difficult to make such rules so that they only affect London, and not also New York and Tokyo/Singapore.
No, the 80% (or whatever other) limit is there for exactly this issue. EU is fine with comparatively minor offshore financial centers dealing in Euro, so New York, Tokyo and Singapore won't be affected.

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Old 11th May 2017, 12:49 AM   #1730
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
UK has to prevent this in some way, but EU was opposed to London clearing so much Euros when UK was a member of the EU. With UK out of EU financial regulation and out of ECJ jurisdiction, it's going to happen one way or another. In their pathetic quest to boost 13% of British economy, the brave Brexiteers may well wreck the 82% of the economy the country relies on.
My understanding is that they are talking about business done through clearing houses. These tend to be natural monopolies, so it becomes a lot more binary, either the main clearing house is in London or it is not.
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Old 11th May 2017, 01:31 AM   #1731
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
My understanding is that they are talking about business done through clearing houses. These tend to be natural monopolies, so it becomes a lot more binary, either the main clearing house is in London or it is not.
Yes, if it is better for the clearing house to move from London, it will move.

I presume you're fine with pound business being cleared through Paris, right?

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Old 11th May 2017, 03:33 AM   #1732
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This article is probably rather relevant:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7729631.html

Separate data from the ONS showed Britain's goods trade deficit with the rest of the world widened to 13.441bn, bigger than the median forecast of 11.8bn in the Reuters poll of economists.

That took the total trade deficit - including Britain's surplus in services - for the first quarter to 10.540bn, more than double the shortfall in the fourth quarter.


This suggest another possible motive for early elections. Theresa May needs a large majority in order to maintain a stable government.

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Old 11th May 2017, 04:32 AM   #1733
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Yes, if it is better for the clearing house to move from London, it will move.

I presume you're fine with pound business being cleared through Paris, right?
Both are unlikely. I have no problem with business being done in France being cleared there; it's just unlikely that the market will move.

As I said its complicated:

Quote:
The boss of the US derivatives regulator has warned*European officials hoping to control euro-clearing *post-Brexit that they face*a "decision that needs to be made with care" as the battle for*the $1 trillion*market*heats up.*
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...ply&p=11833810
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Old 11th May 2017, 04:35 AM   #1734
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
This suggest another possible motive for early elections. Theresa May needs a large majority in order to maintain a stable government.
On the other hand, latest BoE forecasts:

Quote:
Bank policymakers trimmed their forecast for UK growth this year to 1.9pc due to slower household spending growth. While this is down from 2pc in its February projection, growth is still expected to be higher than 2016, when the economy grew by 1.8pc.
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Old 12th May 2017, 12:48 AM   #1735
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The other issue for the banks is actually whether if they move can they take their people with them, if they do this pre finalisation of the talks then free movement rules apply, if they do it post then they could find themselves in a nightmare of residency and work permit rules. The latest report from Deloites suggest that this is also a key driver for the decisions being taken.
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Old 12th May 2017, 01:00 AM   #1736
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Germany already profits from Brexit, an expert claims.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...housing-market

It's telling this subdued article appeared in Express, which is more known for articles such as this one:

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/exp...erve-lose-jobs

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Old 12th May 2017, 06:18 AM   #1737
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More good news, this time from BMW
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Old 12th May 2017, 06:21 AM   #1738
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
More good news, this time from BMW
Yeah, but who could possibly have predicted that a hard Brexit might lead to manufacturing, where the EU is a key export market, relocating to the EU
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Old 12th May 2017, 07:27 AM   #1739
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Germany already profits from Brexit, an expert claims.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...housing-market

It's telling this subdued article appeared in Express, which is more known for articles such as this one:

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/exp...erve-lose-jobs

McHrozni
Aren't UK real estate prices, particularly in London, already overpriced because they are so popular as investments?
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Old 12th May 2017, 12:59 PM   #1740
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Originally Posted by Newtons Bit View Post
Aren't UK real estate prices, particularly in London, already overpriced because they are so popular as investments?
House prices in London have actually been falling for a little while but they continue to rise in the suburbs and Home Counties.
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Old 14th May 2017, 02:10 AM   #1741
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possible evidence of illegal collusion between the two main leave campaigns

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...exit-campaigns
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Old 14th May 2017, 06:36 AM   #1742
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
possible evidence of illegal collusion between the two main leave campaigns

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...exit-campaigns
Can't remember blame them. The system seems pretty toothless to punish them for it and they got the result they wanted regardless.
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Old 14th May 2017, 09:41 AM   #1743
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
More good news, this time from BMW
The below sentence in the article sounds weird:

Quote:
It is not just the UK that would suffer from a failure to agree a Brexit deal. European car makers sell more of their products in the UK than British manufacturers sell in Europe.
If the production of some lower segment cars, like mini and maybe others, is relocated to the continent, the Brits will have to imports cars, unless they all become rich enough to buy Rolls Royce, Bentley, Aston Martin or Jaguar cars, which doesn't seem realistic.

In others words at medium term the lack of British production could force the the British consummers to buy on the continent despite the customs duties on imported cars.
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Old 14th May 2017, 10:42 AM   #1744
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What? Lotus and Morgan can't supply the UK market?

We'll just do what New Zealand and Australia do and use secondhand Japanese cars.
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Old 15th May 2017, 12:47 AM   #1745
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This story provides an interesting insight into the mindset of the British Brexit negotiators and IMO gives a clear "tell" that no doubt the wily EU negotiators will use:

Quote:
The Brexit Secretary David Davis has said he does not accept that Irish border issues can be resolved in the first stage of the UK negotiation with the EU.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39915364

It seems that David Davis wants to make a trade deal the number one priority of the Brexit discussions and is willing to put matters of border security into a second round of negotiations.

IMO this smacks of desperation on the part of the British team. They need a trade deal to wave in front of the British public to reassure everyone that it's all going to be fine. My concern is that in their haste to get such a deal, they'll leave important points unresolved and, more importantly, antagonise the EU unnecessarily.
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Old 15th May 2017, 01:00 AM   #1746
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
This story provides an interesting insight into the mindset of the British Brexit negotiators and IMO gives a clear "tell" that no doubt the wily EU negotiators will use:



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39915364

It seems that David Davis wants to make a trade deal the number one priority of the Brexit discussions and is willing to put matters of border security into a second round of negotiations.

IMO this smacks of desperation on the part of the British team. They need a trade deal to wave in front of the British public to reassure everyone that it's all going to be fine. My concern is that in their haste to get such a deal, they'll leave important points unresolved and, more importantly, antagonise the EU unnecessarily.
This doesn't seem right to me. What good is a trade deal as a reassurance to the public if it will be in effect for a good two years before the election? This tactic would make a certain amount of sense if the parliament didn't trigger an early election, but this way is more likely to backfire than do any good.

I think it's a desperation of a different kind, the negotiating team knows UK has nothing to bring to the table but using expats as pawns and be prepared to risk security of the continent to improve the deal. It's despicable and harmful to all sides, but beggars can't be choosers. It's as if they're hoping for a stack overflow of bad feelings towards the UK, which will lead to a complete reversing the stances.

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Old Today, 09:31 AM   #1747
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I'M fairly certain that the link below won't make a shred of difference, but it does make an interesting read.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7749811.html
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Old Today, 09:49 AM   #1748
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Hmm

https://twitter.com/conservatives/st...96053641379840

Irony.jpg

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Old Today, 01:11 PM   #1749
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Originally Posted by Greebo View Post
I'M fairly certain that the link below won't make a shred of difference, but it does make an interesting read.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7749811.html
Eh, it's grasping at straws, a technicality at best.

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Old Today, 01:35 PM   #1750
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
I mean... it's not wrong...

just a weeeee bit hypocritical...
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Old Today, 02:04 PM   #1751
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Originally Posted by Newtons Bit View Post
I mean... it's not wrong...

just a weeeee bit hypocritical...
Just a bit
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