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Tags Coronavirus , diseases

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Old 16th July 2020, 07:00 PM   #441
The Atheist
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Australia reports 423 new cases today - they are firmly in the grip of a serious outbreak. Many more and it will be past the point of control.
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Old 16th July 2020, 07:09 PM   #442
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
It absolutes is; that's how maths works.

We're still well off being able to say that it is second infections, though - as you say, more research is needed.
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Meanwhile, on the subject of immune system response, here's a clear English piece that may be of value:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipelin...he-coronavirus

Or, it could be dogs!

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7215164/

Whether correct or not, it does show the breadth of work being undertaken to find answers.
Math is useless unless properly applied.

Get back to me when your anecdotal evidence is backed up by actual scientific evidence like documentation of an infection with a clearly different strain.
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Old 16th July 2020, 09:41 PM   #443
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Australia reports 423 new cases today - they are firmly in the grip of a serious outbreak. Many more and it will be past the point of control.

Australia in this case = mostly Victoria with a small handful in New South Wales (from a Victorian) and I think two elsewhere. And this is all the Melbourne spike, and they are in Stage 3 lock down after a couple of major mistakes were made (lots of big gatherings by extended families in the Northern Suburbs, and a Security Guard in one of the Quarantined Hotels bonking an overseas returnee and spreading the result). Outside of Melbourne, there are almost no new cases.

It's bad, but I live only 30 miles from there and we are still about as open as anywhere else in Australia is, and we are effectively Covid free (as long as Melbourne keeps checking the roads out). I even took the kids out to lunch on Sunday (lovely meal, nice local red).

The only (minor) upside is that many thousands of tests are being performed daily to virtually everybody in the affected areas, and their contacts, and anybody testing positive goes into full quarantine for 14 days.

With good luck and better management, this work should see some positive results and reductions next week, the lock down having been in place for 10 days now.

Norm
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Old 16th July 2020, 10:00 PM   #444
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
We're still well off being able to say that it is second infections, though - as you say, more research is needed.
There's some discussion of the limited evidence in this paper but it was published in early May.

Kirkcaldy, R.D., King, B.A., and Brooks, J.T. (2020). COVID-19 and Postinfection Immunity: Limited Evidence, Many Remaining Questions. JAMA.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2766097


Another interesting paper, recently published, proposing that prior exposure to betacoronaviruses (cold) might convey a more robust T cell response to SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, T cell responses are more long lasting. Specifically they detected T response to SARS-CoV-2 from people that recovered from SARS-CoV-1 which was over a decade ago.

Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...888v1.full.pdf
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Old 16th July 2020, 11:19 PM   #445
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Fauci is on the latest TWIV https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_Vy6fgaBPE
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Old 16th July 2020, 11:39 PM   #446
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Australia reports 423 new cases today - they are firmly in the grip of a serious outbreak. Many more and it will be past the point of control.
Victoria went into lockdown on 8 July. They will see increases in numbers for about 10 days after that, which is 18 July. Then it would take another 10 days while the numbers go down. That is what happened when Australia went into lockdown. In short I predict they are close to the peak.

I say Victoria should have gone into lockdown a few days earlier. Then the numbers would be a lot lower. But that is the trouble with exponential growth. The numbers do not look serious until it is too late.
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Old 17th July 2020, 01:38 AM   #447
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Here's a research paper on T-cell immunity:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...888v1.full.pdf

I may be wrong about this, but it looks to me like they are saying that people who have had previous exposure to older corona-viruses retain a long-lasting resistance to new infections from corona-viruses generally. This is because they can recognize features that are common to all the corona-viruses and mount a response against that. I'm not sufficiently scientific literate to tell for sure, though, so please comment if you can, folks.

This might explain why children normally get a very mild infection. They get infected with the common cold corona viruses all the time, like the litte pests they are! This is a hypothesis that has been mentioned before, but now it looks like it has a better scientific foundation, I think.
Well, adults were kids once, so they would have been exposed and will have an "educated" immune system through that exposure. It works for flu to some degree.
But the paper doesn't appeasr to show the effect of exposure to older coronavriuses on SARS-COV-2 infection.

Last edited by Capsid; 17th July 2020 at 01:47 AM.
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Old 17th July 2020, 02:49 AM   #448
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Originally Posted by fromdownunder View Post
With good luck and better management, this work should see some positive results and reductions next week, the lock down having been in place for 10 days now.

Norm
Yeah, I hope you get it under control, because as lots of other countries are showing right now, if you don't stamp it out hard, it gets away from you.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
There's some discussion of the limited evidence in this paper but it was published in early May.
It's kinda funny, really - in normal times, a 2-month old paper would be highly relevant; right now, it's old news and we're looking for more recent data.

Given the learning curve on Covid, I think another three months should start to clarify a few things.
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Old 17th July 2020, 03:25 AM   #449
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Originally Posted by Capsid View Post
Well, adults were kids once, so they would have been exposed and will have an "educated" immune system through that exposure. It works for flu to some degree.
But the paper doesn't appeasr to show the effect of exposure to older coronavriuses on SARS-COV-2 infection.
Gah! I linked the wrong article!

Here's the one I meant to link:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s415..._reference.pdf

They begin right off the bat with: Memory T cells induced by previous pathogens can shape the susceptibility to, and clinical severity of, subsequent infections

And then lots more. I won't pretend that I understand everything it says, though.
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Old 17th July 2020, 07:00 AM   #450
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Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides View Post
This compound is an inhibitor of serine proteases; acting as a very slow alternate substrate in a model system. The acyl enzyme is very slow to hydrolyze. The target is the serine protease TMPRSS2.
It is also used as an anticoagulant, so it perhaps might reduce clotting.
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Old 17th July 2020, 08:12 AM   #451
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Not to mention, none of the studies on schools have taken into account the immense harm done by having kids not at school.
Riight.

I grew up in a rural area and had no contact with strangers except at school. I was often off sick for weeks at a time, probably more than a month per year on average. Wonder where I picked up those viruses? Sick time didn't affect my academic performance much, but being at school seriously affected my health!

Quote:
NZ's had so few cases I can't find a single report of influenza up to the end of May.
Your doctors must be furious. The lockdown has seriously affected their revenue stream!

When the total cost of your Covid-19 response is tallied up, will the savings in down time and medical costs be taken into account? Will people now realize that they don't have to put up with these other viruses? Or will they just slip back into 'business as usual'?
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Old 17th July 2020, 09:24 AM   #452
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Riight.

I grew up in a rural area and had no contact with strangers except at school. I was often off sick for weeks at a time, probably more than a month per year on average. Wonder where I picked up those viruses? Sick time didn't affect my academic performance much, but being at school seriously affected my health!
That's purely anecdotal.
Edit, sorry misread that at first glance.

I am not for sending kids to school, no matter what.
But school is really important. And I suspect that this pandemic will do harm to kids not attending school as before.

Last edited by carlosy; 17th July 2020 at 09:27 AM.
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Old 17th July 2020, 09:55 AM   #453
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Looking to inputs from people far more knowledgeable than me.

Re long-term harm to kids, from disrupted schooling.

Gene-wise, aren’t we the same as our hunter-gatherer forbears? At some high level, didn’t most kids fare OK irrespective of which of the diverse hunter-gatherer groups they were born into?
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Old 17th July 2020, 11:01 AM   #454
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Getting kids out of these useless schools for a bit is one of the greatest silver linings. Here's our chance to reform schools. Since there has been an internet, the absolute academic domination of in school kids by online kids has been more than obvious.

Keep it going
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Old 17th July 2020, 12:42 PM   #455
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Riight.
According to some bloke on the internet, no.

According to UNESCO, yes. https://en.unesco.org/covid19/educat...e/consequences

Note that UNESCO's position is supported by science & evidence gained from general school closures. https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...72775718302693

If you want personal anecdotes, having my young boy at home instead of at school was a hugely rewarding and enriching experience for him academically and physically - his fitness went up by an entire order of magnitude - and he really enjoyed it as well. He also learnt more science in the four weeks his school was closed than he has in the previous 4 years.

However, for the vast majority of kids, school is an imperative part of life.

Given the minor negatives of schools being open, I don't think there's any question about it. Take USA as an example - in an average year, 4000 kids die in traffic crashes and 3000 die from gunshot wounds.

The best information I can find on Covid deaths by age is a bit old, but should be close enough. In NYC, a whopping 0.06% of deaths were under age 18.

Let's err on the high side and say that the mortality rate of Covid is 1%. That means a child's likelihood of dying on Covid is about 0.0006% as a worst-case.

With 50M school kids in USA, that could mean a maximum of 300 children dying, one tenth of the number killed by guns, and 2/3 the number killed annually by their parents.

The other side is, in an uncontrolled epidemic, which is where USA & Brazil are, everyone is going to get Covid sooner or later, so you're not actually protecting anyone. America had the chance to halt the virus and failed. Why make kids pay for the idiocy of their parents & grandparents?

Even better, we have real-world examples of what happens when schools open: nothing! Germany, Denmark, Australia... take your pick. No spike in cases despite schools being open.
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Old 17th July 2020, 12:59 PM   #456
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
<snip>
Given the minor negatives of schools being open, I don't think there's any question about it. Take USA as an example - in an average year, 4000 kids die in traffic crashes and 3000 die from gunshot wounds.

The best information I can find on Covid deaths by age is a bit old, but should be close enough. In NYC, a whopping 0.06% of deaths were under age 18.

Let's err on the high side and say that the mortality rate of Covid is 1%. That means a child's likelihood of dying on Covid is about 0.0006% as a worst-case.

With 50M school kids in USA, that could mean a maximum of 300 children dying, one tenth of the number killed by guns, and 2/3 the number killed annually by their parents.

The other side is, in an uncontrolled epidemic, which is where USA & Brazil are, everyone is going to get Covid sooner or later, so you're not actually protecting anyone. America had the chance to halt the virus and failed. Why make kids pay for the idiocy of their parents & grandparents?

Even better, we have real-world examples of what happens when schools open: nothing! Germany, Denmark, Australia... take your pick. No spike in cases despite schools being open.
My hilite.

As written, this is nonsense (the quoted part).

Some is just sloppy (“whopping 0.06% of deaths were under age 18”; “Covid” is missing).

On a personal level, I don’t respond well to being told, using nonsense instead of reason, and with such insouciance, that several of those very near and dear to me will die from COVID-19 in the next six months or so.

Last edited by JeanTate; 17th July 2020 at 01:01 PM.
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Old 17th July 2020, 03:44 PM   #457
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Have you heard about the COVAX Facility?

It's preparing the world for vaccine distribution when one of the 100-200 vaccine tests in progress should be ready in a year.

"The goal of COVAX is by the end of 2021 to deliver two billion doses of safe, effective vaccines that have passed regulatory approval and/or WHO prequalification. These vaccines will be delivered equally to all participating countries, proportional to their populations, initially prioritising healthcare workers then expanding to cover 20% of the population of participating countries. Further doses will then be made available based on country need, vulnerability and COVID-19 threat. The COVAX Facility will also maintain a buffer of doses for emergency and humanitarian use, including dealing with severe outbreaks before they spiral out of control."

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail...ccess-facility [WHO]

165 countries have signed up.


COVAX will be preparing for an eventual successful candidate by "encouraging manufacturers to scale up in advance through “push” and “pull” financial mechanisms. “Push” financing comes in the form of direct catalytic investment in research and development, and in production, while “pull” mechanisms will provide manufacturers additional incentives to scale up, through advance commitments to purchase substantial volumes of a successful vaccine.

"Given that the majority of the vaccine candidates in development won’t succeed, there are obvious risks here. But by pooling resources and sharing the risks, we increase our collective chances of succeeding, and stand to share the rewards if we do. When governments pay into the COVAX Facility, with Gavi and CEPI at the helm, they not only get access to the largest portfolio of COVID-19 vaccines that exists, but they also get to be part of the global solution to this pandemic."


https://fortune.com/2020/07/08/covid...irus-vaccines/ [FORTUNE]
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Old 17th July 2020, 05:39 PM   #458
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
According to some bloke on the internet, no.

According to UNESCO, yes. https://en.unesco.org/covid19/educat...e/consequences

Note that UNESCO's position is supported by science & evidence gained from general school closures. https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...72775718302693

If you want personal anecdotes, having my young boy at home instead of at school was a hugely rewarding and enriching experience for him academically and physically - his fitness went up by an entire order of magnitude - and he really enjoyed it as well. He also learnt more science in the four weeks his school was closed than he has in the previous 4 years.

However, for the vast majority of kids, school is an imperative part of life.

Given the minor negatives of schools being open, I don't think there's any question about it. Take USA as an example - in an average year, 4000 kids die in traffic crashes and 3000 die from gunshot wounds.

The best information I can find on Covid deaths by age is a bit old, but should be close enough. In NYC, a whopping 0.06% of deaths were under age 18.

Let's err on the high side and say that the mortality rate of Covid is 1%. That means a child's likelihood of dying on Covid is about 0.0006% as a worst-case.

With 50M school kids in USA, that could mean a maximum of 300 children dying, one tenth of the number killed by guns, and 2/3 the number killed annually by their parents.

The other side is, in an uncontrolled epidemic, which is where USA & Brazil are, everyone is going to get Covid sooner or later, so you're not actually protecting anyone. America had the chance to halt the virus and failed. Why make kids pay for the idiocy of their parents & grandparents?

Even better, we have real-world examples of what happens when schools open: nothing! Germany, Denmark, Australia... take your pick. No spike in cases despite schools being open.
3000??? WTF!?!
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Old 17th July 2020, 05:47 PM   #459
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
My hilite.

As written, this is nonsense (the quoted part).
Go on then, do please explain how the overwhelming majority of people in USA and Brazil won't be infected. You've got 1.9M currently infected people in USA that have tested positive, and we know that at least ten times as many others haven't been tested, so with 6% of Americans currently infecting others, the chances of not getting it are pretty slim.

Have you not seen where America's numbers are headed? Right now, it's doing significantly worse than India, which is a pretty feeble effort.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Some is just sloppy (“whopping 0.06% of deaths were under age 18”; “Covid” is missing).
Just a tip to help with your abysmal comprehension of written English: context. When the preceding sentence in the same paragraph is specifically discussing Covid deaths: (The best information I can find on Covid deaths by age is a bit old, but should be close enough.) there isn't any need to repeat the word "Covid" in the next sentence - even very poor readers will understand that.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
On a personal level, I don’t respond well to being told, using nonsense instead of reason, and with such insouciance, that several of those very near and dear to me will die from COVID-19 in the next six months or so.
You know a lot of kids likely to die from Covid?

It's ok - I know that's not what you mean, see what I say about context?

What you're really saying is that some parts of reality upset you. That would seem to be your problem rather than mine.
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Old 17th July 2020, 06:45 PM   #460
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
3000??? WTF!?!
That would be a bit of a derail, I guess, so to bring it back on track; I now better understand why so many Americans are so callous about their death toll. 150k deaths -pfft, that's nothing!
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Old 17th July 2020, 07:41 PM   #461
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Old 17th July 2020, 08:09 PM   #462
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Let's see where we stand two weeks after I said this:

Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
I don't think [100k new cases/day in the US is] going to happen. Every time the virus has reached a point where it seemed nothing short of saturation was going to slow it down in some region, it's slowed down. I have no idea why. Not knowing why has been driving me crazy. But it's been a very consistent pattern.

At the time, the new records set by the U.S. were around 50k/day so we've closed the gap halfway. I'm standing by my prediction, but it's going to be close. The rates of increase in Texas and California (possibly also Florida) are slowing down. At the same time, the Carolinas and Tennessee (among others) have been following a steadily rising trajectory since April, with no sudden surges but no periods of decline either. Their slow-burn curves have reached >2000 cases/day territory, where there are no past examples of steady increases turning into plateaus or steady decreases without a big surge in between. But by the time those states are surging, some of the more populous ones will be declining.

If the curve does level off below 100,000 (I'm guessing in the high 80k's two weekly cycles from now) it will stay high for a long time. It will still be above 50,000/day by the start of September.

My other prediction from back then was that India would gradually catch up and pass everyone. That prediction is still on track. Today, India passed (by a whisker) the U.S.'s new case count of 35,930 on April 24th. That figure stood as a record for weeks, until it was exceeded by Brazil (where new cases have now leveled off around 40k/day) and then the resurgent U.S. three weeks ago. Unfortunately, slow and steady is going to "win" this race.

(This is all based on reported figures. It's quite possible that the actual numbers of cases is dramatically different, and even different by different factors in different places. But the reported figures are the only basis we have for making predictions and comparisons.)
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Old 17th July 2020, 08:23 PM   #463
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
That would be a bit of a derail, I guess, so to bring it back on track; I now better understand why so many Americans are so callous about their death toll. 150k deaths -pfft, that's nothing!
Yeah, it's a hideous statistic.

Kids dying of gunshot wounds, whether accidental or not, in NZ are probably one a year and make big news when it happens. USA, it's just another day with a Y in it.

I measure that against our team of 5 million in NZ, where there was almost unanimous support for putting lives over money. So far, we've lost 22 people to Covid, which is fewer than died on non-influenza respiratory infections in the same time period.

Speaking of deaths from Covid, I see the world chart shows that for the past 10 weeks the world has set a new record for new positives every week, and the rate appears to be increasing. Deaths are following that line up, and I reckon we look to be three weeks from setting new daily death records. I can see 10,000 deaths a day around the world by the start of the northern winter.

The disease has been really good at showing what would happen with a truly deadly disease. Imagine what the world would like now if Covid were as virulent as ebola.

Sheesh, I'm going to have to go the vent thread now...
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Old 17th July 2020, 08:58 PM   #464
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Coincidentally on the subject of children being better off at school, this popped up in my inbox from The Economist just now: https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...h-the-benefits
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Old 17th July 2020, 09:04 PM   #465
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
3000??? WTF!?!
I've seen "kids" defined as up to 24 years old. But take this sub-thread to one of the many gun control threads please.
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Old 17th July 2020, 09:27 PM   #466
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Note that UNESCO's position is supported by science & evidence gained from general school closures. https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...72775718302693
This study throws kids who are in school to learn with kids who's parents view the schools as babysitters. Here in Hawaii that means throwing innocent kids who want to learn in with the unwanted thugs from clown car vajayjays to get beaten up all day instead of learn. I don't imagine that's much different anywhere else.

This is quite a conflation
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Old 17th July 2020, 10:00 PM   #467
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
Let's see where we stand two weeks after I said this:




At the time, the new records set by the U.S. were around 50k/day so we've closed the gap halfway. I'm standing by my prediction, but it's going to be close. The rates of increase in Texas and California (possibly also Florida) are slowing down. At the same time, the Carolinas and Tennessee (among others) have been following a steadily rising trajectory since April, with no sudden surges but no periods of decline either. Their slow-burn curves have reached >2000 cases/day territory, where there are no past examples of steady increases turning into plateaus or steady decreases without a big surge in between. But by the time those states are surging, some of the more populous ones will be declining.

If the curve does level off below 100,000 (I'm guessing in the high 80k's two weekly cycles from now) it will stay high for a long time. It will still be above 50,000/day by the start of September.

My other prediction from back then was that India would gradually catch up and pass everyone. That prediction is still on track. Today, India passed (by a whisker) the U.S.'s new case count of 35,930 on April 24th. That figure stood as a record for weeks, until it was exceeded by Brazil (where new cases have now leveled off around 40k/day) and then the resurgent U.S. three weeks ago. Unfortunately, slow and steady is going to "win" this race.

(This is all based on reported figures. It's quite possible that the actual numbers of cases is dramatically different, and even different by different factors in different places. But the reported figures are the only basis we have for making predictions and comparisons.)
I think you are way to opermistic. USA had 74,987 new cases on 17 July. This is doubling every 24 days. In other words there will be 100,000 new cases per day in the USA.


Ref: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

How will this impact on the US economy?

Edit. If nothing is done then by mid November half of the population at the USA would have caught the virus. Maybe this is the best strategy now? Only hope most people can only get it once.
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Old 17th July 2020, 10:07 PM   #468
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Coincidentally on the subject of children being better off at school, this popped up in my inbox from The Economist just now: https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...h-the-benefits
Oh bull ******

Look at that school, which schools look like that?

It's unrealistic and oversimplified poppycock created by people who don't give a **** about the masses as long as their kids in private schools and their stock portfolios look good.
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Old 17th July 2020, 10:20 PM   #469
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
3000??? WTF!?!
Without going too far into this... here's a link that delves a little more into the numbers and surrounding facts.


The Facts on Children and Teens Killed by Guns
Firearm injuries are a leading cause of death for American kids. Black youth face the worst violence.
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Old 18th July 2020, 03:00 AM   #470
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
This study throws kids who are in school to learn with kids who's parents view the schools as babysitters. Here in Hawaii that means throwing innocent kids who want to learn in with the unwanted thugs from clown car vajayjays to get beaten up all day instead of learn. I don't imagine that's much different anywhere else.

This is quite a conflation
I think your experience is a lot different from other countries, actually.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
It's unrealistic and oversimplified poppycock created by people who don't give a **** about the masses as long as their kids in private schools and their stock portfolios look good.
Nice little rant & non sequitur combined with some poisoning the well - pretty cool sentence.

And there was me thinking you respected evidence, which is why I posted UNESCO's findings on schools. There are clear negatives to kids not going to school, some of which can be lifelong. It also affects girls far more than boys, but what do facts matter when faced with evidence we don't like?
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Old 18th July 2020, 10:32 AM   #471
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
My hilite.

As written, this is nonsense (the quoted part).

Some is just sloppy (“whopping 0.06% of deaths were under age 18”; “Covid” is missing).

On a personal level, I don’t respond well to being told, using nonsense instead of reason, and with such insouciance, that several of those very near and dear to me will die from COVID-19 in the next six months or so.
It's not nonsense. We're all doomed to get it because anybody in power who can do anything to stop the spread of the virus is now doing worse than literally nothing, they are actively promoting the spread (along with a large (and growing) chunk of the populace). When the only response from the government is "well, you're on your own, good luck with that", what other possible outcome is there?

The literal only hope for any type of normalcy is to wait it out for a vaccine or at least reliable treatment. And hope that it won't bankrupt you.
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Old 18th July 2020, 10:39 AM   #472
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I think you are way to opermistic. USA had 74,987 new cases on 17 July. This is doubling every 24 days. In other words there will be 100,000 new cases per day in the USA.

Yes, it is optimistic. Although in a way, it doesn't really matter how high the peak new cases per day goes in the whole US. That's largely a measure of synchrony. If a lot of different states all peak at the same time, the US peak will be higher. If they peak at different times, it won't be as high. What matters is total cases, and whether (and where) local surges overwhelm health care resources. Total cases are going to be high no matter what, and we're seeing full ICUs in some cities.

The US new case counts hit their high for the week on Fridays, and then it takes until the following Wednesday to reach or exceed the previous Friday. So we won't really know more until this coming Friday (24th). My prediction is that will be in the mid 80k's, the following Friday's (31st) will be in the high 80k's, and the Friday after that will be somewhere between a little higher (still in the high 80k's) and a little lower. In other words, the U.S. new cases will peak in early August. Some individual states won't peak until mid to late August, so any decline after the peak will be very slow for weeks. That doesn't mean any one city or region will end up having half their population infected; it means states and counties and cities and towns that haven't yet had many cases will have their turn.

I'll point out that a high positivity rate is not evidence that the peak is far off in that state. Historically, states that have peaked have have had high positivity rates during their peaks.

I'm not making any bets on being correct, though. Just trying to make my best guess as how the next few months will play out.

Quote:
Edit. If nothing is done then by mid November half of the population at the USA would have caught the virus. Maybe this is the best strategy now? Only hope most people can only get it once.

If I extrapolate the rise in ocean water level since the tide started coming in this morning, my house will be underwater by noon tomorrow. Yet I'm not worried. Extrapolating indefinitely from recent trends doesn't always make sense.

(But, for various reasons that have been much discussed in this thread, it is not the best strategy, in any case.)
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Old 18th July 2020, 11:06 AM   #473
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The Hill has an article about how much of the increase in the US is due to an accelerating rate of infection amongst "young" people. E.g., in Maryland the test positivity rate is 84% higher for people under 35 than for people over 35. In New Mexico, 44% of new cases are under 30 while in Rhode Island the percentage of new cases that are 20-somethings increased from 10% to 20% during June. In Arizona, Tennessee, and Washington, more than 10% of new case are under 20.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...vid-19s-spread
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Old 18th July 2020, 12:16 PM   #474
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Tackling some of the nonsense.

This post doesn't belong here, in SMM&T; maybe discuss it further in the relevant thread in the USA Politics board?
Originally Posted by jnelso99 View Post
It's not nonsense. We're all doomed to get it because anybody in power who can do anything to stop the spread of the virus is now doing worse than literally nothing, they are actively promoting the spread (along with a large (and growing) chunk of the populace). When the only response from the government is "well, you're on your own, good luck with that", what other possible outcome is there?

The literal only hope for any type of normalcy is to wait it out for a vaccine or at least reliable treatment. And hope that it won't bankrupt you.
Next: in this post, "context".

Thanks for that. I now appreciate that you were writing about a fantasy world, some alternative universe; sorry I didn't grasp that at first. ETA: This older post of yours should have alerted me: "Given that 98% of Americans are obese"

From the post I called full of nonsense: "The other side is, in an uncontrolled epidemic, which is where USA & Brazil are, everyone is going to get Covid sooner or later, so you're not actually protecting anyone." (bold added).

Back in the real world:
- there is herd immunityWP
- and a mate of yours TA, who you spoke highly of here
- the state of Connecticut, where Rt has remained below 1.0 for quite some time (check out rt.live)1

But I do have a question: in the TA alternative universe, is 1% of 330 million 3.3 million?

And in the follow-up post: "You've got 1.9M currently infected people in USA that have tested positive, and we know that at least ten times as many others haven't been tested" From The COVID Tracking Project just now:
- 3,626,881 cases
- 40,576,852 negative tests
- 3,002 pending tests
- 57,705 currently hospitalized
- 1,107,204 recovered
- 131,523 deaths
- 44,203,733 total test results (positive+negative)

Just one more for now: perhaps only a few children with Covid-19 will die (as a % of those infected). How many will suffer long-lasting neurological effects? Also, of those who live in multi-generational homes, what % of the older siblings, parents, and grandparents who they infect will die?2

1 Just one example
2 Actually, in the TA alternative universe, I think the answer is something like "a large fraction of 3.3 million".

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Old 18th July 2020, 12:42 PM   #475
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Meanwhile in Scotland we're hairshirting about 21 new cases reported today, because we had been down into low single figures some days. Our 7-day average of new cases was as low as 7.1 cases per day, but now stands at 11.7. (The goal of under one new case per day per million population would for us be 5.4 cases per day, so we haven't been far off it.)

We had a horrendous death toll over April and May. Expressed per million population we're on 457 confirmed deaths and 768 if you count the suspected deaths as well. So we were hit extremely hard indeed. Nevertheless we're quite close to eliminating community transmission. It is not an impossible task.
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Old 18th July 2020, 01:20 PM   #476
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Meanwhile in Scotland we're hairshirting about 21 new cases reported today, because we had been down into low single figures some days. Our 7-day average of new cases was as low as 7.1 cases per day, but now stands at 11.7. (The goal of under one new case per day per million population would for us be 5.4 cases per day, so we haven't been far off it.)

That is absolutely the right thing to do. Assess what's working, and investigate what went wrong for every case that slips through. In Massachusetts we can still only do that on a more community scale, such as bombarding hot spot towns with tests. There's still too many cases to expect to prevent every one, especially since most of the state is fully open -- not fully open as in 2019, but in Phase 4 restrictions, which is the last phase that's been defined, aka the "new normal."

There's a lot of mopping up after a massive (as in, over 2000 cases/day in one state) surge. New York, the big success story, still gets an average of around 700 new cases a day.

Quote:
We had a horrendous death toll over April and May. Expressed per million population we're on 457 confirmed deaths and 768 if you count the suspected deaths as well. So we were hit extremely hard indeed. Nevertheless we're quite close to eliminating community transmission. It is not an impossible task.

People in places that have been hit hard are motivated to act appropriately. One problem with the U.S. "sun belt" states that are now out of control is that they had few cases early on. Almost no one knew anyone who knew anyone who caught it. They could have "peaked" at the same time as New York (that is, with hardly any cases at all) if they had hammered down on it as hard as New York did. But they had little visible reason to.[/quote]
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Old 18th July 2020, 01:47 PM   #477
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Tackling some of the Writing more nonsense.
FTFY

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
"Given that 98% of Americans are obese"
More total reading comprehension fail.

That is so obviously hyperbolic you're the only person to have mentioned it. Every other participant sees it for what it obviously is.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Back in the real world:
- there is herd immunityWP
Classic example of wishful thinking not supported by evidence.

We certainly hope there's herd immunity, but in the actual real world, it definitely has not been proven.

I understand why you're so scared, but as already noted, wishful thinking won't change the course of the disease in USA one bit, and if you think some states will be able to keep Covid out when the epidemic is raging uncontrollably in a majority of states, you're deluding yourself.

Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Nevertheless we're quite close to eliminating community transmission. It is not an impossible task.
If you let the disease-ridden Sassenachs in, it will be.
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Old 18th July 2020, 02:08 PM   #478
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Thanks.

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
FTFY



More total reading comprehension fail.

That is so obviously hyperbolic you're the only person to have mentioned it. Every other participant sees it for what it obviously is.
So, in future, I should call the nonsense in your posts “hyperbole”?


Quote:
Classic example of wishful thinking not supported by evidence.

We certainly hope there's herd immunity, but in the actual real world, it definitely has not been proven.
What makes SARS-CoV-2 unique among viruses?

Quote:
I understand why you're so scared, but as already noted, wishful thinking won't change the course of the disease in USA one bit, and if you think some states will be able to keep Covid out when the epidemic is raging uncontrollably in a majority of states, you're deluding yourself.

<snip>
(my hilite)

Strange, I thought you were a Fauci fan. What makes you so (hyperbolically?) certain an effective vaccine is impossible (before ~3.3 million people die)?

Also, nonsense hyperbole and science tend to be rather incompatible, wouldn’t you say?

“Under control” != “out” Just ask the Aussies. Or Danes. Or ...

“raging uncontrollably”? In which US states is COVID doing that?
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Old 18th July 2020, 02:31 PM   #479
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
...
Nice little rant & non sequitur combined with some poisoning the well - pretty cool sentence.

And there was me thinking you respected evidence, which is why I posted UNESCO's findings on schools. There are clear negatives to kids not going to school, some of which can be lifelong. It also affects girls far more than boys, but what do facts matter when faced with evidence we don't like?
And here's me ignoring this kind of crap because there is respected evidence out there that I do look at.


Your link isn't open access unless I register and I'm not going to. You will notice the political magazine this was published in coincidentally makes **** up that is conducive to the politics of wanting to open schools for economic not scientific reasons. Since when is the Economist a medical journal? A sociology journal? A psychology journal? Bloomberg and the WSJ also have such articles in them conveniently claiming how harmful it is for kids to miss several months of school. And the image in the article says it all, which is what I commented on.

Look at the opening paragraph:
Quote:
All around the world, children’s minds are going to waste.
Oh puhleese! Look at the image, kids in uniform, sitting 6 feet apart in neat little rows with their masks on. How many kids in whichever country the image is from are denied an education altogether because the poor and disadvantaged simply can't go to a school such as the one in the pic?

It continues:
Quote:
As covid-19 surged in early April, more than 90% of pupils were shut out of school. Since then the number has fallen by one-third, as many classrooms in Europe and East Asia have reopened. But elsewhere progress is slow. Some American school districts, including Los Angeles and San Diego, plan to offer only remote learning when their new school year begins.
What kind of comparison is this? Because schools in some countries have reopened, all schools should be able to reopen?

Children's minds are going to waste, so much worse than killing a number of kids and their teachers off. Do we know which kids are not at risk?

Why no, no we do not. Are there replacement teachers for those who are high risk? No. Funds to expand the physical size of classrooms so kids can sit 6 feet apart? Nope.

But let's get back to the science because we know what the political message is, convince people kids are being harmed and must go back to school to save them all from suicides and miserable lives (or whatever risk it is that is supposed to outweigh the COVID 19 risk).


FL SunSentinal: Nearly one-third of children tested for COVID in Florida are positive. Palm Beach County’s health director warns of risk of long-term damage
Quote:
Nearly one-in-three children tested for the new coronavirus in Florida has been positive, and a South Florida health official is concerned the disease could cause lifelong damage even for children with mild illness.

Dr. Alina Alonso, Palm Beach County’s health department director, warned county commissioners Tuesday that much is unknown about the long-term health consequences for children who catch COVID-19.

X-rays have revealed the virus can cause lung damage even in people without severe symptoms, she said.

“They are seeing there is damage to the lungs in these asymptomatic children. ... We don’t know how that is going to manifest a year from now or two years from now,” Alonso said. “Is that child going to have chronic pulmonary problems or not?
And as for using only the percentage of deaths to falsely conclude children aren't getting infected:
Quote:
State statistics also show the percentage of children testing positive is much higher than the population as a whole. Statewide, about 31% of 54,022 children tested have been positive. The state’s positivity rate for the entire population is about 11%.
There are a lot of people drawing unsupported conclusions, not just Trumpers.

And why is it Trump would do this if the science supports reopening schools? The Hill: White House blocks CDC director from testifying before House panel on reopening schools

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Old 18th July 2020, 03:00 PM   #480
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I was going to point out that in common with every other virus known to mankind, herd immunity will only happen with a vaccine. But I see this has turned into a snark-fest so as you were.
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