Continuation The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 2

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by rjh01

Covid is going to be around for many years, especially if the vaccine proves less than ideal. So I would love to see the results you are referring to.

Depends what you want to know. The main database is here: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/...rent-situation

Originally Posted by marting

That's assuming that this trend towards fewer older people getting it continues. Winter is a big unknown and Fla just opened up all it's bars and few are wearing masks. Lucky for Fla. that it's easy to ventilate with outside air and their falls and winters are quite moderate. Midwest and upstate NY could be in for it though.

Europe's having a resurgence of it all over, and USA followed Europe to start with, and I'll be surprised if it doesn't surge again in the next two months.

I keep having to stress to people that we're not even quarter of the way through this pandemic yet. I actually pick we're about 10% right now.

[Orphia Nay]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I've been saying that for weeks - our stats are proving to be 100% reliable and every country in the world should be participating in research on the data we're providing. Who gives the disease to whom, how it is transmitted, how close does contact need to be for transmission, the most effective means of tracing, and a dozen other factors can be viewed in real time and with confidence in the methodology, transparency and practice of the work being done. And while the case numbers are small, the effort behind it isn't, with a million tests completed.

It's too late for other countries to do much about Covid, but it's going to be extremely helpful for the next pandemic. And the one after that...

I don't know how to categorise how much Oz and NZ might be sharing, but the data and modelling and remodelling will certainly be useful.

Victoria, where we're almost over our second wave (don't speak too soon, Orph!) could help the UK who are starting their second wave.

Our "Roadmap to Covid Normal" was a huge modelling project, and gets remodelled all the time as new data comes in.

[ohms]

Originally Posted by Darat

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000mzms

There is a programme on Radio 4 on Thursday looking into why some people recover quickly and some people much slower. It's by Adam Rutherford who got Covid several months ago but suffered from symptoms for months. He's the host of Inside Science and co-host of The Curious Cases of Rutherford & Fry, two of the best science programmes so probably be well worth a listen.

Just a small correction, this is on today at 11:00am UK time.

[wasapi]

I have read that Vitamin D helps prevent covid. Does anyone know, how much extra D does help prevent the virus?

My doctor prescribed extra vitamin D a couple of years ago for other reasons, and I am curious how much it may help.

Thanks.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by wasapi

I have read that Vitamin D helps prevent covid. Does anyone know, how much extra D does help prevent the virus?

My doctor prescribed extra vitamin D a couple of years ago for other reasons, and I am curious how much it may help.

Thanks.

There's a lot of evidence to suggest vitamin D deficiency causes negative outcomes, but the key is to not take too much, because that will damage your kidneys and higher levels don't help any more than having sufficient levels.

If you stick to 1 supplement tablet a day (1000 IU) you'll be fine.

How much it helps is still unknown, but there are several studies that show deficiency is a key indicator of serious cases. The best and most impartial information to date is this meta-analysis by a super-computer: https://elemental.medium.com/a-super...d-31cb8eba9d63

I have an extensive list of the evidence already posted, so if you want more just fire me a PM.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by wasapi

I have read that Vitamin D helps prevent covid. Does anyone know, how much extra D does help prevent the virus?

My doctor prescribed extra vitamin D a couple of years ago for other reasons, and I am curious how much it may help.

Thanks.

well a lot of the data isn't very good:

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...l.pone.0239799

5-tweet thread on this:https://twitter.com/sTeamTraen/statu...305451010?s=20

TLDR:

Apparently 16.3% of the 206 patients over 40 died.

Which is 33.6 people. so either 33 or 34 people

but 206/33= 16% and 206/34= 16.5%

So it's unclear even how many people over 40 died (the key number in the paper)

[Pixel42]

Originally Posted by wasapi

I have read that Vitamin D helps prevent covid. Does anyone know, how much extra D does help prevent the virus?

My understanding is that avoiding vitamin D deficiency does not prevent Covid-19, but there's some evidence it reduces the severity if you do get it.

How much you need to avoid deficiency depends on where you live and the season. In the northerly latitude of the UK, for example, a supplement is recommended in the winter months:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitami...als/vitamin-d/

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by jimbob

well a lot of the data isn't very good:

I could just about put that in the what pisses me off thread - why, with a pandemic killing thousands of people a day, so much sloppy research is being promoted.

Scientists involved are doing all of science a terrible disservice, and at a time when trust in science is needed.

I call false-flag right-wing conspiracy!

I understand people want answers quickly, but accuracy and verification should be insisted on in all cases. Lancet et al have plenty to answer for in all this.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

My understanding is that avoiding vitamin D deficiency does not prevent Covid-19, but there's some evidence it reduces the severity if you do get it.

How much you need to avoid deficiency depends on where you live and the season. In the northerly latitude of the UK, for example, a supplement is recommended in the winter months:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitami...als/vitamin-d/

It's effects seem to more a matter of its role in keeping the immune system and related things healthy, in other words.

Going further, I'm going to poke at the supercomputer article just to put the blurb involving Vitamin D on the table.

Quote:

Interestingly, Jacobson’s team also suggests vitamin D as a potentially useful Covid-19 drug. The vitamin is involved in the RAS system and could prove helpful by reducing levels of another compound, known as REN. Again, this could stop potentially deadly bradykinin storms from forming. The researchers note that vitamin D has already been shown to help those with Covid-19. The vitamin is readily available over the counter, and around 20% of the population is deficient. If indeed the vitamin proves effective at reducing the severity of bradykinin storms, it could be an easy, relatively safe way to reduce the severity of the virus.

If true when it comes to the way that it helps, it's well worth remembering that the effect is distinctly indirect and, regardless, that Vitamin D is fairly certainly no miracle cure or silver bullet.

To follow one of the links from that article, though, here's another article that deals more directly with black people and Vitamin D. To poke at a couple bits from that -

Quote:

According to a study conducted by the Cooper Institute, nearly 76% of African American adults are vitamin D deficient. And while it’s true that Black people commonly have lower levels of vitamin D, some studies suggest that commonly used tests might overdiagnose vitamin D deficiency in Black people.

<snip>

Both doctors I interviewed for this article stated that most people can take 1,000 IU of vitamin D supplementation per day without any issues. But know that you can overdo it. Doctors urge Black people to be cautious about supplementing with high doses of vitamin D (generally, the recommended upper limit is 4,000 IU per day — so don’t go over that amount).

<snip>

“You can take a daily vitamin D supplement or multivitamins. But also look at your stress levels and diet. […] If you can reduce stress via yoga or meditation or other things, it can have a huge impact on your immune system,” suggests Norris. Stress levels and diet are important factors for many kinds of illness, including conditions that can put you at a higher risk for vitamin D deficiency.

It must be said: While vitamin D may help with immune health and could reduce the severity of some infectious diseases, taking vitamin D supplements is not a cure and will not prevent Covid-19 in Black people.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Aridas

It's effects seem to more a matter of its role in keeping the immune system and related things healthy, in other words.

More importantly, vitamin D's assistance in respiratory illness had long been known, so the fact that it helps with Covid isn't a surprise.

Also, the idea that black people's vitamin D minimum levels might be overstated appears to be incorrect.

Some light reading on the subject - pre-Covid:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2759054/

https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583

[The Atheist]

Some interesting facts about Covid from NZ:

We still have exactly zero cases of transmission from pre-symptomatic people.

Despite symptomatic cases visiting 20+ fast food joints, taking a 4-hour lake cruise with 20 others, taking a tandem skydive (plus 10 people in the plane), visiting numerous tourist attractions, taking a 4-hour bus ride, driving a bus for three shifts, attending three gym classes, and even visiting a rest home, not one case was passed on. During the period of those events, approximately 200,000 tests (4% of the population) were carried out, including all known contacts of the cases.

On the other hand, the cases in the two clusters have managed to pass the infection on at church, at a funeral gathering, and in home, along with at least two cases of fomite transmission.

It appears from the NZ experience, that it's not actually that easy to catch and that even reasonably close casual contact won't pass it on. Hugging would appear to be the best way to get it, with the possibility that hongi may have been involved at the funeral site.

[marting]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Some interesting facts about Covid from NZ:

We still have exactly zero cases of transmission from pre-symptomatic people.

Despite symptomatic cases visiting 20+ fast food joints, taking a 4-hour lake cruise with 20 others, taking a tandem skydive (plus 10 people in the plane), visiting numerous tourist attractions, taking a 4-hour bus ride, driving a bus for three shifts, attending three gym classes, and even visiting a rest home, not one case was passed on. During the period of those events, approximately 200,000 tests (4% of the population) were carried out, including all known contacts of the cases.

On the other hand, the cases in the two clusters have managed to pass the infection on at church, at a funeral gathering, and in home, along with at least two cases of fomite transmission.

It appears from the NZ experience, that it's not actually that easy to catch and that even reasonably close casual contact won't pass it on. Hugging would appear to be the best way to get it, with the possibility that hongi may have been involved at the funeral site.

This is something I've mentioned from time to time too. There are numerous reports that only 11% of infected people pass it to other members of their household. What appears to be the case is that a relatively few people expel lots of virus with bad results if they are also around a lot of other folks. Very asymmetrical. Also explains how it can kick around on the west coast for months at a low level From Jan through Feb while it took off in New York from a European import. Luck of the draw? OTOH, the EU strain is supposedly more infectious and is now the dominant strain across the USA but came in a bit later.

Strange critter.

I've also heard that a study of hundreds of thousands of positive cases shows a consistently lower level of Vit. D. than the general population. Haven't located it though. It was mentioned by one of the authors of the recent peer reviewed D study in an attached video.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...l.pone.0239799

[Ulf Nereng]

Originally Posted by Pixel42

My understanding is that avoiding vitamin D deficiency does not prevent Covid-19, but there's some evidence it reduces the severity if you do get it.

How much you need to avoid deficiency depends on where you live and the season. In the northerly latitude of the UK, for example, a supplement is recommended in the winter months:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitami...als/vitamin-d/

My take on it is that vitamin D deficiency should be seen as a dangerous co-morbidity, and one that can be easily avoided.

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Some interesting facts about Covid from NZ:

We still have exactly zero cases of transmission from pre-symptomatic people.

Despite symptomatic cases visiting 20+ fast food joints, taking a 4-hour lake cruise with 20 others, taking a tandem skydive (plus 10 people in the plane), visiting numerous tourist attractions, taking a 4-hour bus ride, driving a bus for three shifts, attending three gym classes, and even visiting a rest home, not one case was passed on. During the period of those events, approximately 200,000 tests (4% of the population) were carried out, including all known contacts of the cases.

On the other hand, the cases in the two clusters have managed to pass the infection on at church, at a funeral gathering, and in home, along with at least two cases of fomite transmission.

It appears from the NZ experience, that it's not actually that easy to catch and that even reasonably close casual contact won't pass it on. Hugging would appear to be the best way to get it, with the possibility that hongi may have been involved at the funeral site.

Do you have a source for this? I am interested in your comment about 'fomite transmission', how they proved this and why it could not have been transmission from an asymptomatic unidentified contact. Given false negative rates on testing and the limited period in which someone with an infection may be tested positive it is hard to exclude an unrecognised contact as opposed to claiming fomite transmission.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I could just about put that in the what pisses me off thread - why, with a pandemic killing thousands of people a day, so much sloppy research is being promoted.

Scientists involved are doing all of science a terrible disservice, and at a time when trust in science is needed.

I call false-flag right-wing conspiracy!

I understand people want answers quickly, but accuracy and verification should be insisted on in all cases. Lancet et al have plenty to answer for in all this.

Yup. It's utterly worthless at best, and possibly promotes harm at worst (HCQ)

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by marting

This is something I've mentioned from time to time too. There are numerous reports that only 11% of infected people pass it to other members of their household.

Yeah, I've been surprised at the low numbers of people catching it in the same house as positive cases.

I'm sure we're still missing important pieces of the puzzle.

Originally Posted by Planigale

Do you have a source for this? I am interested in your comment about 'fomite transmission', how they proved this and why it could not have been transmission from an asymptomatic unidentified contact.

There were definitely no asymptomatic contacts, because the testing has been wide enough to catch any, and after 100 days with zero cases, there's no way the disease was undetected in the community.

The case from quarantine checked CCTV footage and it's the only way it could have been transmitted, along with the cluster outbreak that can only have come into the country on chilled/frozen food.

[Samson]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Yeah, I've been surprised at the low numbers of people catching it in the same house as positive cases.

I'm sure we're still missing important pieces of the puzzle.



There were definitely no asymptomatic contacts, because the testing has been wide enough to catch any, and after 100 days with zero cases, there's no way the disease was undetected in the community.

The case from quarantine checked CCTV footage and it's the only way it could have been transmitted, along with the cluster outbreak that can only have come into the country on chilled/frozen food.

Problem in the latter is in proposing a singular event.
It should be rife given the virulent nature of the outbreak.

There should be many similar yet nil. What is going on?

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Samson

Problem in the latter is in proposing a singular event.
It should be rife given the virulent nature of the outbreak.

There should be many similar yet nil. What is going on?

It may be worth pointing out in response to this that the frozen food route is a very low probability route for multiple reasons, even if one starts with the assumption that the virus is present (which should probably only be the case at a fairly low probability itself). The amount of virus tends to be rather small, for example, and is not particularly mobile, so it's much less likely to actually manage to infect. Add to that that frozen foods tend to need cooking - which itself should significantly reduce or remove viable virus - and yeah, it's low probability. On a different front, even if such happens, it's only in a case like NZ's, when all other reasonably viable options are ruled out, that it's treated as the most likely scenario. That the virus can stay viable for greatly extended periods of time when it comes to frozen food is the only main factor that increases the likelihood of transmission.

[casebro]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Some interesting facts about Covid from NZ:

We still have exactly zero cases of transmission from pre-symptomatic people.

Despite symptomatic cases visiting 20+ fast food joints, taking a 4-hour lake cruise with 20 others, taking a tandem skydive (plus 10 people in the plane), visiting numerous tourist attractions, taking a 4-hour bus ride, driving a bus for three shifts, attending three gym classes, and even visiting a rest home, not one case was passed on. During the period of those events, approximately 200,000 tests (4% of the population) were carried out, including all known contacts of the cases.

On the other hand, the cases in the two clusters have managed to pass the infection on at church, at a funeral gathering, and in home, along with at least two cases of fomite transmission.

It appears from the NZ experience, that it's not actually that easy to catch and that even reasonably close casual contact won't pass it on. Hugging would appear to be the best way to get it, with the possibility that hongi may have been involved at the funeral site.

re: fomite transmssion, Cite?

All I found is "Speaking to The Atlantic in July, Goldman stated his position more emphatically: “Surface transmission of COVID-19 is not justified at all by the science.”"

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Samson

Problem in the latter is in proposing a singular event.
It should be rife given the virulent nature of the outbreak.

There should be many similar yet nil. What is going on?

How do you know there aren't?

As Aridas points out, everywhere else, the method of transmission can only be guessed at - they're surrounded by people with the disease and there are dozens, if not hundreds, of potential vectors. NZ is the sole exception where every case can be investigated and genomic analysis of origin completed. If you're sharing a house or office with an infected person, how on earth would you know what the vector actually is?

Given that zero cases happened outside the August Auckland cluster, that outbreak can only have started from chilled foods.

Unless you subscribe the "came from outer space" theory.

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

How do you know there aren't?

As Aridas points out, everywhere else, the method of transmission can only be guessed at - they're surrounded by people with the disease and there are dozens, if not hundreds, of potential vectors. NZ is the sole exception where every case can be investigated and genomic analysis of origin completed. If you're sharing a house or office with an infected person, how on earth would you know what the vector actually is?

Given that zero cases happened outside the August Auckland cluster, that outbreak can only have started from chilled foods.

Unless you subscribe the "came from outer space" theory.

I certainly accept that genomic analysis would be a strong pointer, with full genome sequencing one can be fairly sure of direction of transmission. I have not seen any sequencing studies from NZ and would be interested if you could point me to them.

[Planigale]

Some may be interested;

The UK is running low on Remdesivir (< 2 weeks at current usage), Trump has put an embargo on export from the US, expect to see some signs of Boris being smarmy with Trump in the next week and a possible release of essential medical supplies.

ETA perhaps this is more political than scientific but the big boys on the political thread bully me so I posted it here.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Planigale

I have not seen any sequencing studies from NZ and would be interested if you could point me to them.

Unfortunately not. I can't find a single repository for it.

The information comes out in the daily briefing then it's gone, so I think you'd have to go through all the daily media releases to find them.

[Lplus]

Originally Posted by Planigale

Some may be interested;

The UK is running low on Remdesivir (< 2 weeks at current usage), Trump has put an embargo on export from the US, expect to see some signs of Boris being smarmy with Trump in the next week and a possible release of essential medical supplies.

ETA perhaps this is more political than scientific but the big boys on the political thread bully me so I posted it here.

Would you rather he didn't?

Lets hope there's plenty of the Dexamethasone left then.

[eerok]

More covid snake oil.

Web Of 'Wellness' Doctors Promote Injections Of Unproven Coronavirus Treatment [npr.org]

Quote:

Dr. Fradin-Read is a prominent figure in the wellness community. She owns the medical practice VitaLifeMD in Los Angeles, and helped formulate the "Madame Ovary" supplement for actor Gwyneth Paltrow's brand Goop.

This time, on Instagram, Fradin-Read was promoting more than just "wellness." In the face of a deadly pandemic, she claimed to have an "FDA approved" medicine that worked like "magic." Fradin-Read made similar claims on her practice's Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram accounts. If patients followed her advice, including regular injections of this drug, she said, "maybe the virus will not be that hard to fight."

[Planigale]

Originally Posted by eerok

More covid snake oil.

Quote:

Dr. Fradin-Read is a prominent figure in the wellness community. She owns the medical practice VitaLifeMD in Los Angeles, and helped formulate the "Madame Ovary" supplement for actor Gwyneth Paltrow's brand Goop.

This time, on Instagram, Fradin-Read was promoting more than just "wellness." In the face of a deadly pandemic, she claimed to have an "FDA approved" medicine that worked like "magic." Fradin-Read made similar claims on her practice's Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram accounts. If patients followed her advice, including regular injections of this drug, she said, "maybe the virus will not be that hard to fight."

Web Of 'Wellness' Doctors Promote Injections Of Unproven Coronavirus Treatment [npr.org]

I am willing to believe that her 'treatment' works exactly as well as magic.

[Samson]

Transmission by rubbish bin lid:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12369825

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by Samson

Transmission by rubbish bin lid:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12369825

I was just coming to post that.

Hard to believe a facility where you're guaranteed to have positive cases doesn't have bins with a pedal to avoid exactly that outcome.

[zooterkin]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Interesting fact regarding pre-symptomatic transmission.

Our health department sees it as very low likelihood of transmission, and they appear to be correct, with every case in the new outbreak infected by someone who was showing symptoms at the time.

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I was just coming to post that.

Hard to believe a facility where you're guaranteed to have positive cases doesn't have bins with a pedal to avoid exactly that outcome.

And that case seems to show two examples of pre-symptomatic spread.

[zooterkin]

I just heard an interesting way of expressing the risks from catching Covid-19; having it basically doubles your chance of dying in the next year.

[casebro]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

I just heard an interesting way of expressing the risks from catching Covid-19; having it basically doubles your chance of dying in the next year.

Not even close. In America, 2.8 million people die per year. Increase is 10% TOPS, because a bunch of Covids being old, would have died this year any how. We won't know that for at least a year when we can see "excess deaths in 2020".

So overall.nope. But hmm, some age groups maybe? Few people die when young. It may even be possible to exxagerate your claim to "Covid is the #1 cause of death among people age (45-50?) " Lets make is sound maximum scarey.

[Puppycow]

Use of Ivermectin Is Associated with Lower Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19

Ivermectin treatment may improve the prognosis of patients with COVID-19

[Rolfe]

Um, that's a wormer. And an insecticide. That's a bit off the wall.

[Armitage72]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Um, that's a wormer. And an insecticide. That's a bit off the wall.

According to Wikipedia, it would likely require dosages that would be directly harmful to the patient.

Quote:

Ivermectin has antiviral effects against several distinct positive-sense single-strand RNA viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Ivermectin inhibits replication of SARS-CoV-2 in monkey kidney cell culture with an IC₅₀ of 2.2 - 2.8 µM, making it a possible candidate for COVID-19 drug repurposing research. The doses used in cell culture would require 10⁴ larger doses in humans based on this data, which does not look promising as an effective treatment for COVID-19. Such high doses of ivermectin are not covered by the current human-use approvals of the drug and could be dangerous, as the likely antiviral mechanism of action is the suppression of a host cellular process, specifically the inhibition of nuclear transport by importin α/β1
...
As of July, ivermectin was being studied in 19 ongoing and 18 planned clinical trials.

A preprint published on 10 June 2020 reported on an observational retrospective study of COVID-19 patients at four Florida hospitals and found a significantly lower mortality in those who had received ivermectin.

This is the referenced preprint from June.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by casebro

Not even close.

As usual, you completely fail to understand mathematics.

Most people <70 have a very low chance of dying in the next 12 months. Doubling the chances of dying would have minimal impact on the overall death rate.

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

And that case seems to show two examples of pre-symptomatic spread.

Doesn't appear so. The timing says that person had been confirmed and removed to the infected case quarantine before the guy touched it.

It looks like it could have been avoided if someone cleaned the lids every day.

[marting]

Sure seems to be sensitive to climate.

Northern states, including some very hard hit ones and many not impacted much at all, seeing case increases.

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-ca...8a8e09df3.html

[zooterkin]

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Doesn't appear so. The timing says that person had been confirmed and removed to the infected case quarantine before the guy touched it.

I meant this:

Quote:

The person then sat behind a man on the charter flight whose positive test was reported on September 19.

Previously the man was thought to have had an unusually long incubation period, having tested positive three weeks after flying into New Zealand.

Now he is thought to have caught Covid-19 on the flight from the person behind him, who didn't have any symptoms but tested positive on September 23, following the testing of all close contacts on the charter flight.

I thought the earlier transmission, on the flight on September 11, may have been the same, but it's not clear if the person (who apparently caught the disease from the bin lid) was symptomatic at that time.

[Orphia Nay]

Not to derail into politics, but this is what they're giving Trump:


"Mr Trump's physician Sean Conley said in a statement earlier on Friday that the president had "as a precautionary measure received an 8g dose of Regeneron's polyclonal antibody cocktail", which is administered to help reduce virus levels and speed recovery.
He was also taking zinc, vitamin D, famotidine, melatonin and aspirin, Dr Conley said.
"As of this afternoon he remains fatigued but in good spirits," he added. The first lady was "well with only a mild cough and headache"."


Trump taken to hospital after testing positive for Covid-19 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54396670

[The Atheist]

Originally Posted by zooterkin

I meant this:


I thought the earlier transmission, on the flight on September 11, may have been the same, but it's not clear if the person (who apparently caught the disease from the bin lid) was symptomatic at that time.

I think that whole idea is bollocks - if he caught it on the plane, he became symptomatic in a matter of hours, rather than days, which seems a lot more unlikely than the alternative.

The story's tainted politically, mostly because they're desperately trying to avoid the million times more likely scenario that he got it in managed isolation on day 12, 13 or 14.