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Tags telepathy , telepathy test

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Old 24th September 2012, 08:36 PM   #241
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Originally Posted by Sledge View Post
What is the point of this?
A poorly constructed test which failed horribly. The op cherry picked the data and viola something something psychic abilities.
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Old 24th September 2012, 09:42 PM   #242
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
A poorly constructed test which failed horribly. The op cherry picked the data and viola something something psychic abilities.

Give that man a million dollars!
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Old 25th September 2012, 05:19 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by AdMan View Post
Give that man a million dollars!
No, no... let's wait till the inevitable rant from the OP. I have popcorn waiting.
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Old 25th September 2012, 07:48 AM   #244
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I'm quite happy to participate in a reasonably credible experiment, blinded along the lines Hokulele suggested, although I'd like to know what the point of analysing statements might be: how could suitable criteria be defined and applied? - why not simply require an unadorned number or letter or word guess, without any accompanying statement?

To take it seriously, I'd expect to see the full protocol and details of the analysis to be done before the experiment starts.
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Old 25th September 2012, 08:18 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Your proposal is interesting, Hokulele, this sounds like an interesting protocol. (Thank you also to Femke; it is possible that I request your assistance at some point, Femke.)
However, I find it a little complicated and I am afraid that answerers (to the telepathy test) who would have to send a private message to the assistant, instead of posting directly on the forum, would be less spontaneous and relaxed, and that their answers would be too "calculated", and that a test with your procedure would end in failure because of that. It is possible that some people don't mind participating once or twice in a telepathy test which looks a little bit like a game

I disagree. When posting their answers publicly, people are apt to be less spontaneous and natural, as they know their answers will be scrutinized and possibly criticized. This is one reason that scientific psychological studies are done in the strictest anonymity and privacy. In addition, as was mentioned earlier in this thread, people may be influenced by others' reactions, rather than having "pure" reactions of their own.

Quote:
<snipped the irrelevant hyperbole>

but it is also possible that, once they feel the test's goal would be to rigorously prove that I am "telepathic" (if I really am so), that would "scare" them and their worst instincts would have the upper hand.
Keep also in mind that I am still fairly new here (I have more experience on Yahoo! Answers), it is still not clear what kinds of results I might get here in the long run, with more number-guessing (for example) threads.

If you are unhappy with the people who respond on this forum, we can combine the more stringent requirements with your preferred venue. Details at the end of this post.

Quote:
If a more rigorous procedure is needed (more rigorous than what I am currently doing or trying to do), I could ask people on this forum to evaluate credibilities of answers (not credibilities of their own answers, credibilities of other answers), without giving them any information (by sensory means) regarding the numerical correctness (or not) of answers beforehand. If this could produce the right number, telepathy would be proved. I could also ask people to evaluate credibilities themselves after I have provided them with all the information I have (which numbers are correct, and my own "credibility analysis"), this would be much less rigorous, but could nevertheless be interesting (in my opinion).

Again, I disagree. All this does is add a layer of subjective opinion to a flawed data set. Here is my second proposal:

Have Femke set up a brand new e-mail account, to be used solely for this experiment. She may use any of the free services such as Hotmail or Google, or another service of her choice if this is unacceptable to you or her. You nor any other person will have any access to this account. Only Femke will be able to read the e-mails sent to this address.

On Google Answers, post your request for people to guess your number, and indicate they must send their responses to Femke's e-mail address. Any reponse posted to Google Answers will be discarded. Only answers sent to the address provided will be accepted. Put a deadline for responses so this doesn't drag on too long. Restrict people to only one response.

Femke will then replace the guessed number with the letter X, and post all answers here. You will then publicly perform your analysis and post your results. Femke will then post the numbers guessed by the participants.
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Old 25th September 2012, 09:55 AM   #246
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Why not simply post a poll with the number choices? Just a thought, but then you do away with the evaluation of responses and all the other extraneous stuff.
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Old 25th September 2012, 11:31 AM   #247
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Originally Posted by Hellbound View Post
Why not simply post a poll with the number choices? Just a thought, but then you do away with the evaluation of responses and all the other extraneous stuff.
Quite.
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Old 25th September 2012, 01:10 PM   #248
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Originally Posted by Hokulele View Post
Here is my second proposal:

Have Femke set up a brand new e-mail account, to be used solely for this experiment. She may use any of the free services such as Hotmail or Google, or another service of her choice if this is unacceptable to you or her. You nor any other person will have any access to this account. Only Femke will be able to read the e-mails sent to this address.

On Google Answers, post your request for people to guess your number, and indicate they must send their responses to Femke's e-mail address. Any reponse posted to Google Answers will be discarded. Only answers sent to the address provided will be accepted. Put a deadline for responses so this doesn't drag on too long. Restrict people to only one response.

Femke will then replace the guessed number with the letter X, and post all answers here. You will then publicly perform your analysis and post your results. Femke will then post the numbers guessed by the participants.
Hokulele, your second proposal seems rather similar to the fist one to me. I think that the method you propose is probably more rigorous than mine, it is possible that I shall use it later. However, keep in mind that, in ESP research, rigor is not the only thing you should worry about. People might be inhibited by a too complicated and serious procedure.

I call the method I'm using here semi-rigorous only, because I may have been a little influenced by my knowledge of the numerical correctness (or not) of the 13 valid answers when I chose the various credibility ratings. The problem of a possible correlation between the various answers during the test is only a minor difficulty because this cannot raise the correct answer rate. I insist, however, that I tried to evaluate all 13 answers credibility-wise (which is different from "quality-wise", those who answered incorrectly may also have made a useful contribution) in a fair way as I usually do. I don't think it would have been possible to obtain a 100% correct answer rate among credible answers if the data had not be of (fairly) good quality, thanks to the 13 answerers. When I look at all answers in post post #177, it seems fairly obvious to me that the (numerically) correct answers are more credible and friendlier than the incorrect ones. I suppose that the people who do not see this do not see it either because they didn't bother to read my analysis carefully, or because they don't want to see it (bad faith). There are of course also some people who just don't have the sense of scientific research (they may, however, have other qualities).
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Old 25th September 2012, 01:12 PM   #249
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
There are of course also some people who just don't have the sense of scientific research

Oh, the irony!
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Old 25th September 2012, 01:21 PM   #250
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
I tried to evaluate all 13 answers credibility-wise
That is why you failed.
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Old 25th September 2012, 01:57 PM   #251
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Hokulele, your second proposal seems rather similar to the fist one to me. I think that the method you propose is probably more rigorous than mine, it is possible that I shall use it later. However, keep in mind that, in ESP research, rigor is not the only thing you should worry about.
Think about the implications of that for a minute.

Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
When I look at all answers in post post #177, it seems fairly obvious to me that the (numerically) correct answers are more credible and friendlier than the incorrect ones. I suppose that the people who do not see this do not see it either because they didn't bother to read my analysis carefully, or because they don't want to see it (bad faith).
How we evaluate their credibility isn't really relevant. The relevant point is that having the person who already knows the "correct" number evaluate the responses makes your study worthless. Even if there is no impropriety on your part there is the opportunity for impropriety, making your results unreliable.
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Old 25th September 2012, 04:47 PM   #252
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Hokulele, your second proposal seems rather similar to the fist one to me. I think that the method you propose is probably more rigorous than mine, it is possible that I shall use it later. However, keep in mind that, in ESP research, rigor is not the only thing you should worry about. People might be inhibited by a too complicated and serious procedure.

Responding via e-mail is no more complicated that responding via an Internet forum. And I have to ask, why is rigor less important in ESP research than in proper scientific research?

Quote:
I call the method I'm using here semi-rigorous only, because I may have been a little influenced by my knowledge of the numerical correctness (or not) of the 13 valid answers when I chose the various credibility ratings.

I would say it is likely to be more than just a little. You could easily prove me wrong by taking a more rigorous test. Are you willing?

Quote:
The problem of a possible correlation between the various answers during the test is only a minor difficulty because this cannot raise the correct answer rate.

Sure it can. Even if it is by accident, people are more likely to change their answers based on others. There tends to be two ways this can happen, either everyone chooses the most popular answer, or, in a test like this, people deliberately try to choose an answer different from everyone else. This results in the almost equal distribution we saw here. The whole, "I can't pick that because it was already taken" phenomenon. You can easily avoid many different types of bias by having the responses be private.

Quote:
I insist, however, that I tried to evaluate all 13 answers credibility-wise (which is different from "quality-wise", those who answered incorrectly may also have made a useful contribution) in a fair way as I usually do.

Again, I disagree. Calling improper punctuation (Im) worse than improper capitalization (wrong) is purely an opinion, one that is likely to be biased based on the outcome you desired. If the answer with "Im" had been correct, would you have been more likely to look kindly on the mistake?

Quote:
I don't think it would have been possible to obtain a 100% correct answer rate among credible answers if the data had not be of (fairly) good quality, thanks to the 13 answerers.

And here again, I disagree. I believe the data was of very poor quality, given that people could, and respond to, each other's answers. Try this little test sometime: Give a group of people a public poll where they have to choose a number from 1-4. Most likely, there will be an even distribution amongst all four numbers, much as we saw here. Give a similar group of people another poll, but one where they cannot see how anyone else answered until they have made their choice. Typically, people will choose either 2 or 3, and ignore 1 and 4. Don't just trust me, actually try this experiment for yourself.

This is fairly typical testing for a psychological claim.

Quote:
When I look at all answers in post post #177, it seems fairly obvious to me that the (numerically) correct answers are more credible and friendlier than the incorrect ones. I suppose that the people who do not see this do not see it either because they didn't bother to read my analysis carefully, or because they don't want to see it (bad faith). There are of course also some people who just don't have the sense of scientific research (they may, however, have other qualities).

Then it should be even more obvious when the answers are masked prior to the evaluation, no? We would know for sure your analysis was based on the inherent credibility of the response. Why would you think such a clear difference would be masked if you didn't know the answers? Isn't telepathy based on knowing without seeing?
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Old 25th September 2012, 06:00 PM   #253
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
My second guess is that Michel won't return.
Second guessing? Sorry, your answer is not serious. This is disqualified. Oh, you were wrong? Well, then it's qualified because uh, let's see... uh... you had no spelling or grammatical errors. So your answer is accepted and is clear proof that skepticism is a failure.
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Old 25th September 2012, 09:49 PM   #254
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I guess at the end of the day Michel is free to run his experiments any way he wishes, as long as he doesnt expect anyone to take him seriously.
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Old 25th September 2012, 10:19 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by devnull View Post
I guess at the end of the day Michel is free to run his experiments any way he wishes, as long as he doesnt expect anyone to take him seriously.

With the protocols he's proposing, no one will.
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Old 26th September 2012, 05:04 AM   #256
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Small Ads.

Psychic wanted. You know where to apply.
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Old 26th September 2012, 02:35 PM   #257
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Originally Posted by dafydd View Post
Small Ads.

Psychic wanted. You know where to apply.
Why do they need to adveritise? They should know who to ring.

Norm
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Old 26th September 2012, 05:08 PM   #258
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Originally Posted by fromdownunder View Post
Why do they need to adveritise? They should know who to ring.
They shouldn't have to ring. Psychics should just show up.
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Old 26th September 2012, 05:45 PM   #259
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Originally Posted by dlorde View Post
They shouldn't have to ring. Psychics should just show up.

They shouldn't have to show up. They can just inform the potential employer via telepathy.
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Old 22nd August 2013, 01:49 PM   #260
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New telepathy test: which number did I write?

Hi, I would like to invite you to participate in a (new) simple telepathy test.

It is not the first time I propose a telepathy test on this forum, the previous one is here: http://www.internationalskeptics.com...d.php?t=241593 .

At about 22:47 on this Thursday August 22 (Brussels, Belgium time), I wrote carefully one of the four numbers: "1", "2", "3", "4" on my sheet of paper, and I surrounded it with a circle. Then, I wrote it again twice.

I shall repeat this number from time to time during this test.

It was selected using this random number generator: http://www.random.org/integers/ .

I ask you to write it here (if you think you know it, even with a doubt). You may also answer "I don't know".

So, your answer should be one of the four numbers: "1", "2", "3", "4", or "I don't know".

A comment might be useful, but is not indispensable.

Please note that the number I wrote has no meaning, it was just produced by the generator.

A MD5 hash code for a complicated sentence containing the number I ask you to telepathically guess (like, for example: "the number to guess is 5 f4315d 3b1fcd81") is:
e5ca98da86a6e4c582700847e587c3ac

It was obtained on this website:
http://www.md5hashgenerator.com/ .

I shall reveal the actual sentence I used to produce this MD5 hash at the end of the test, after I have revealed the number I ask you to guess. This way, you'll be able to verify my number.

Thank you for participating.

Note: I do these tests because I believe I have a particular tendency to (telepathically) communicate my thoughts to others, and I am seeking to prove this through online telepathy experiments.
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Old 22nd August 2013, 02:03 PM   #261
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I'm predicting a hit rate of +/- 20%.

Eta: And am waiting for a JREF wise gal/guy to teach me about probabilities
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Old 22nd August 2013, 02:06 PM   #262
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Old 22nd August 2013, 02:16 PM   #263
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Well this is certainly one of the most robustly controlled experiments I have encountered.
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Old 22nd August 2013, 02:20 PM   #264
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Haven't we been through this nonsense with this same poster before?
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Old 22nd August 2013, 02:22 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by Bell View Post
I'm predicting a hit rate of +/- 20%.

Eta: And am waiting for a JREF wise gal/guy to teach me about probabilities
Bell, if you are skeptical with respect to telepathy, perhaps you should expect a hit rate of +/- 25%, rather than +/- 20% .
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Old 22nd August 2013, 02:23 PM   #266
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Old 22nd August 2013, 02:24 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by Ashles View Post
Well this is certainly one of the most robustly controlled experiments I have encountered.
Thank you, Ashles.
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Old 22nd August 2013, 02:27 PM   #268
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Nope. I am just seeing umbrellas.

Is it raining where you are?
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Old 22nd August 2013, 02:33 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by jond View Post
Haven't we been through this nonsense with this same poster before?
Deja woo.
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Old 22nd August 2013, 02:49 PM   #270
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3. How much of the million dollars do I get for proving that telepathy exists?

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Old 22nd August 2013, 03:00 PM   #271
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Um, I don't know.

But in case it's a bit like blind-sight, I'll guess 1.
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Old 22nd August 2013, 03:06 PM   #272
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Originally Posted by Navigator View Post
Nope. I am just seeing umbrellas.

Is it raining where you are?
Well, strictly speaking, no (I just went outside to check). However, perhaps you meant "raining" in an abstract and general sense, like in this song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hziG9Nr6KHU .
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Old 22nd August 2013, 03:16 PM   #273
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
A MD5 hash code for a complicated sentence containing the number I ask you to telepathically guess
I have a problem already - although it might be a language translation issue. If you are asking us to use telepathy, then we are not guessing; and if you are asking us to guess, then we are not using telepathy.

Also, if we are to use telepathy, then means we are not allowed to use remote viewing or precognition - have you created controls to eliminate those psychic powers from being used during this silly and useless attention-seeking stunt. Ooops, I apologize. I meant to say test. It just came out as silly and useless attention-seeking stunt. I always get those two things confused.


I can see the number....it is near water....

it is 3 ... or very, very near 3.
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Old 22nd August 2013, 03:20 PM   #274
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no....2 definitely 2

wait wait... I see a 3

or maybe a 4?

was I close?
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Old 22nd August 2013, 03:22 PM   #275
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It's......it's.....I'm getting
1,2,3,4 2,1,3,4 3,2,1,4 4,2,3,1
1,2,4,3 2,1,4,3 3,2,4,1 4,2,1,3
1,3,2,4 2,3,1,4 3,1,2,4 4,3,2,1
1,3,4,2 2,3,4,1 3,1,4,2 4,3,1,2
1,4,2,3 2,4,1,3 3,4,2,1 4,1,2,3
1,4,3,2 2,4,3,1 3,4,1,2 4,1,3,2
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Old 22nd August 2013, 03:36 PM   #276
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Originally Posted by Ashles View Post
Well this is certainly one of the most robustly controlled experiments I have encountered.
Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Thank you, Ashles.
I didn't get to it through telepathy, but I'd say Ashles was being sarcastic.

I'm running an experiment too. I suggest the participants pick numbers so that they're as evenly selected as possible.

So far we have two 3s and one 1.

I'll go with 2 then.

This is serious stuff (sending telepathic waves of irony).
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Old 22nd August 2013, 03:41 PM   #277
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Old 22nd August 2013, 03:50 PM   #278
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Well, strictly speaking, no (I just went outside to check). However, perhaps you meant "raining" in an abstract and general sense, like in this song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hziG9Nr6KHU .
Nope I wasn;t being abstract.

I guess I meant "I see Parasols" - can you go outside and check again please.
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Old 22nd August 2013, 03:51 PM   #279
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I know this question assumes there is actually some logic going on somewhere, but here goes anyway:

"Why only 4 numbers to choose from? Even if there were psychic powers at work, the result would be obscured by the quasi-random distribution of responses across a very limited range of choices.

* Why not an undisclosed numeric or alphanumeric string?
* Why not a number range 126-310, or some other reasonable range?"
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Old 22nd August 2013, 04:09 PM   #280
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Originally Posted by Kid Eager View Post
I know this question assumes there is actually some logic going on somewhere, but here goes anyway:

"Why only 4 numbers to choose from? Even if there were psychic powers at work, the result would be obscured by the quasi-random distribution of responses across a very limited range of choices.

* Why not an undisclosed numeric or alphanumeric string?
* Why not a number range 126-310, or some other reasonable range?"
I am thinking of a 12 letter word right now...it starts with 'A' and ends with 'C' and coincidentally doesn't have a 'B' in it at all.

Can you tell me what the word is?

OMG! How could you possibly have known that!?
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