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Old 14th April 2020, 09:00 PM   #961
lomiller
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Some interesting statistics being reported by the BBC:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825

If I understand that correctly, stripping out the Coronavirus fatalities, deaths in the UK were 25% higher than expected. I wonder if:
  • It's just a statistical fluctuation - nothing to worry about
  • It's an indication that there are a lot of Coronavirus deaths not being recorded as such
  • It's an indication that there are people dying because they cannot or choose not to seek treatment - for example, I understand that some cancer patients are having their chemotherapy postponed
  • Coronavirus is having knock-on healthcare effects - for example I've read reports that heart attack deaths are through the roof in New York for no easily understandable reason

Or maybe it's a combination of things.

IMO it does fly in the face of the idea that it's not worth worrying about Coronavirus because the people who have died were about to pop their clogs anyway.
There were some reports of this in Italy as well.

I've no real evidence to support it but my suspicion is that COVID-19 really is is attacking organs besides the lungs. The enzyme it binds to is present in the heat and arteries, so it is possible for COVID-19 to cause strokes and cardiac issues. The research on this hasn't come down one way or there other, but it could explain many of the excess deaths.
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Old 14th April 2020, 11:33 PM   #962
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Is flattening the curve not just a way to get herd immunity without overwhelming the health service?
Yes.
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Old 15th April 2020, 12:00 AM   #963
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Originally Posted by Mader Levap View Post
As far I am concerned, donations to party are bribery. Being it legal does not change it is immoral to prioritize donor over others. But you are being disingenuous, of course.


I will now repeat what I said and what you even cited:



THIS is my reason. I don't know where you got "you disagree with the political views of the owner of the company" (maybe projection?). I got to know he is Conservative party member only after you said you have no idea and I thought it is worth looking into.


Dyson happens to be "longtime Conservative party member" and gave away millions to that party. I am sure preferential treatment of that company by your government and politicians that you support is completely accidental.

Source (just one from many, there is a lot on net about it):
https://www.thecanary.co/discovery/a...l-ventilators/



No corruption here, no sireee.
So many errors in the article from the canary you quote and your understanding of the situation.

1) The government has not ordered any ventilators from Dyson.
2) There was an open tendering to manufacture ventilators to a set standard which I previously linked to. Dyson tendered as did several other engineering organisations.
3) Dyson is partnered with medical engineering companies who have been designing the ventilator with Dyson working on the production.
https://www.ttp.com/news/cambridge-c...ator-challenge
4) The MEC company quoted is not a ventilator manufacturer. They make oxygen pipes and taps. They do not have the resources or expertise to mass manufacture ventilators unlike the TTP / Dyson partnership.
5) The other company quoted is just a middleman who offered to sell thousands of ventilators and millions of self test kits for covid-19 to the government. Dubious?
6) The donation quoted was
Quote:
Name of donor: James Dyson Foundation
Address of donor: Tetbury Hill, Malmesbury SN16 0RP
Amount of donation, or nature and value if donation in kind: £6,450 towards my Wiltshire Festival of Engineering and Manufacturing
So from the charity, not the person, nor the company, so subject to charity rules and to support a festival of engineering not the conservative party or an individual politician.

Your case again seems to be that Dyson is a member of the conservative party. Is your policy that no one who is a member of a party you disagree with should be entitled to bid for government contracts?

Could you reference the millions that James Dyson has given to the conservative party?

You appear to be strong on opinion and lacking in facts to support the opinion. Some of your beliefs are clearly false e.g. that a contract has already been given and that there is not an open tendering process. The source you quoted is full of errors, and only references a donation not from Dyson not to the conservative party.

You are entitled to your opinion but on this site you are expected to provide factual support for opinions.

One fact that you could address is the 'millions donated to the conservative party by James Dyson'. This is your claim and your responsibility to evidence. If this is not true would this change your mind, or would Dyson's party membership still make him an unsuitable person to manufacture ventilators?
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Old 15th April 2020, 01:08 AM   #964
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The stay at home message, repeatedly chanted by the government and police, is too simplistic;

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...tals-bm73s2tw3

"England and Wales have experienced a record number of deaths in a single week, with 6,000 more than average for this time of year.

Only half of those extra numbers were attributed to the coronavirus. Experts said they were shocked by the rise, particularly in non-Covid-19 deaths, and expressed concern that the lockdown might be having unintended consequences for people’s health.

There are fears that patients are not seeking help for life-threatening conditions, including heart attacks, because they are worried about catching coronavirus in hospital."
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Old 15th April 2020, 04:22 AM   #965
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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1250354070487007232

Quote:
+UPDATE+

1. Coroners told now not to record ANY deaths in care homes as Coronavirus unless “proved”
2. Many counties now accepting only tests as proof of COVID
3. Only few tests taking place in care homes

Result:

Some counties are now reporting ZERO Covid care home fatalities.
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Old 15th April 2020, 04:26 AM   #966
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The government has given formal approval for construction work on the HS2 rail project to begin despite lockdown measures.

Quote:
HS2 minister Andrew Stephenson said: "We cannot delay work on our long-term plan to level up the country."

Quote:
Matthew Kilcoyne, deputy director of the free-market Adam Smith Institute, called the government's announcement "tone-deaf" in the light of the coronavirus pandemic.
"We've got an economic crisis that's going to cost taxpayers billions. We can't afford vanity projects like HS2.
Quote:
Construction workers on-site will need to observe Public Health England's advice on social distancing during the Covid-19 outbreak.

The GMB union, which represents HS2 construction workers, said that the safety of the workforce "must be the overriding priority".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 15th April 2020 at 04:28 AM.
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Old 15th April 2020, 04:29 AM   #967
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Making a 150 mile journey a few minutes faster is not going to "level up the country"
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Old 15th April 2020, 04:30 AM   #968
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Oh dear

Quote:
The commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has unveiled a handheld device that he said could identify people infected with the coronavirus within 100m (330ft), Tasnim news agency reports.

"The basis of this device is to create a magnetic field based on a bipolar virus inside the device, so its antenna can focus on any place within a 100m diameter that is infected by the virus, and identify the infected place in five seconds," Maj-Gen Hossein Salami was quoted as saying.

He added that its accuracy was "80%”, but provided no evidence.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share
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Old 15th April 2020, 04:32 AM   #969
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post

Quote:
+UPDATE+

1. Coroners told now not to record ANY deaths in care homes as Coronavirus unless “proved”
2. Many counties now accepting only tests as proof of COVID
3. Only few tests taking place in care homes

Result:

Some counties are now reporting ZERO Covid care home fatalities.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1250354070487007232
Have to keep the number of fatalities under the government's own 20,000 forecast otherwise it'll be clear that the response has been bungled.

Deliberately failing to count a significant proportion of cases would certainly be one way to achieve that
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Old 15th April 2020, 04:49 AM   #970
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
The government has given formal approval for construction work on the HS2 rail project to begin despite lockdown measures.








https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055
I'm 100% sure that all construction workers will ensure they're 6ft away from each other at all times, and there will be nothing that requires them to be any closer at any point.

I'm also convinced that after the years that HS2 has been a thing for a delay of 6 months would be far too long.
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Old 15th April 2020, 05:10 AM   #971
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I'm 100% sure that all construction workers will ensure they're 6ft away from each other at all times, and there will be nothing that requires them to be any closer at any point.

I'm also convinced that after the years that HS2 has been a thing for a delay of 6 months would be far too long.
Must get HS2 past the point of no return before anyone gets a chance to kill it off.
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Old 15th April 2020, 06:01 AM   #972
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
The stay at home message, repeatedly chanted by the government and police, is too simplistic;

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...tals-bm73s2tw3

"England and Wales have experienced a record number of deaths in a single week, with 6,000 more than average for this time of year.

Only half of those extra numbers were attributed to the coronavirus. Experts said they were shocked by the rise, particularly in non-Covid-19 deaths, and expressed concern that the lockdown might be having unintended consequences for people’s health.

There are fears that patients are not seeking help for life-threatening conditions, including heart attacks, because they are worried about catching coronavirus in hospital."
I have previously talked about 'excess attributable deaths' with flu. The largest proportion of which are the increased number of strokes and heart attacks occurring shortly after an episode of flu particularly in the elderly. This is not unique to flu but occurs more generally following pneumonia of many causes. It is not unexpected that we would see a rise in deaths from other causes following within a few weeks of a covid infection. We may see a continued excess of deaths even as actual infections fall due to a lag effect. My guess when more details emerge is there will be a rise in deaths certified as due to heart disease, strokes and other thrombotic disorders.
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Old 15th April 2020, 06:24 AM   #973
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
We had something similar here. A university published that it had an app which could detect whether you had coronavirus from a selfie. Er, it didn't.

https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech...hrough-selfies
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Old 15th April 2020, 06:56 AM   #974
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Is flattening the curve not just a way to get herd immunity without overwhelming the health service?
Yes.
a) Some common corona viruses induce less than a year of immunity. If COVID-19 behaves this way then it's effectively impossible to achieve herd immunity via infection

b)With it's observed rate of mortality and critical cases it's likely impossible to achieve high rates of immunity without overloading health services.
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Old 15th April 2020, 07:42 AM   #975
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
I'm 100% sure that all construction workers will ensure they're 6ft away from each other at all times, and there will be nothing that requires them to be any closer at any point.

I'm also convinced that after the years that HS2 has been a thing for a delay of 6 months would be far too long.
Well now HS2 and Crossrail can complete at the same time! .......
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Old 15th April 2020, 07:44 AM   #976
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Your case again seems to be that Dyson is a member of the conservative party.
You are really hang up on "Dyson is a member of the conservative party and this is why you criticize Dyson making ventilators" narrative. Newsflash: your lack of reading comprehension is not my problem.

Political allegiances of Dyson is side show. I didn't even knew about them when I started criticizing your government making business with Dyson at expense of actual medical companies.

I will say it for the THIRD (and last) time: I criticize idea of Dyson making ventilators on grounds that government should contact existing medical companies first, and producers of vacuum cleaners last.

If you are going to still insist nonsense about my motivations, there is nothing more to discuss. Have fun cleaning up 16 hour a day mess made by your incompetent politicians. You like them, so it shouldn't be problem, right?
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Old 15th April 2020, 09:10 AM   #977
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Oh dear, it seems the ventilators in question are not going to be much use other than for a few hours use per patient:
Quote:
Dr Pittard, who was among a group of medical experts who advised on minimum specifications for ventilators in early March, said the professionals had asked for devices that would work for the duration of a Covid-19 patient’s stay in intensive care.

“If we had been told that that was the case, that the ventilators were only to treat a patient for a few hours. we’d have said: ‘Don’t bother, you’re wasting your time. That’s of no use whatsoever’,” she said.
https://www.ft.com/content/365529f8-...8yZbTqlH0IYWwE
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Old 15th April 2020, 09:41 AM   #978
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Originally Posted by wobs View Post
Oh dear, it seems the ventilators in question are not going to be much use other than for a few hours use per patient:

https://www.ft.com/content/365529f8-...8yZbTqlH0IYWwE
I don't understand this comment the government specification is

Quote:
Must be reliable. RMVS must be capable of continuous operation (100% duty cycle) for 14 days.
2. Should be capable of operation continuously for more than 14 days. The expected durability must be specified.
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Old 15th April 2020, 09:55 AM   #979
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Originally Posted by Mader Levap View Post
You are really hang up on "Dyson is a member of the conservative party and this is why you criticize Dyson making ventilators" narrative. Newsflash: your lack of reading comprehension is not my problem.

Political allegiances of Dyson is side show. I didn't even knew about them when I started criticizing your government making business with Dyson at expense of actual medical companies.

I will say it for the THIRD (and last) time: I criticize idea of Dyson making ventilators on grounds that government should contact existing medical companies first, and producers of vacuum cleaners last.

If you are going to still insist nonsense about my motivations, there is nothing more to discuss. Have fun cleaning up 16 hour a day mess made by your incompetent politicians. You like them, so it shouldn't be problem, right?
You made comments about bribery and corruption and Dyson giving £ millions to the conservative party. A claim that you seem unwilling to back up.

The government had already sought to purchase as many ventilators as possible both from UK and other manufacturers. They were unable to commit to delivering sufficient ventilators within the timescale needed. You seem unable to accept that you are wrong when you say that the UK government had not sought to purchase from pre-existing manufacturers prior to putting out a bid for new manufacturing options. The government did not contact Dyson, when the bid went out Dyson responded.

You seem to think that the government should have just sat back and said 'Oh dear! We did our best but there are no more ventilators available, you will just have to make do with the limited number that the current manufacturers can provide'. The reality is since everyone else is seeking the same thing, new manufacturing capability has to be brought on line. To get the predicted number of ventilators needed a new rapidly manufactured ventilator design was sought. Most modern ventilators can monitor a large number of physiological variables, have a large range of modes and are compatible with e.g. NO therapy. A simpler design is possible that delivers the type of ventilatory support needed for most patients, for the minority of patients who you might want to run on NO or try HFOV you can swap to a more sophisticated vent.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/r...on-ventilators

Last edited by Planigale; 15th April 2020 at 09:57 AM.
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Old 15th April 2020, 09:56 AM   #980
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Oh dear

Quote:
The commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has unveiled a handheld device that he said could identify people infected with the coronavirus within 100m (330ft), Tasnim news agency reports.

"The basis of this device is to create a magnetic field based on a bipolar virus inside the device, so its antenna can focus on any place within a 100m diameter that is infected by the virus, and identify the infected place in five seconds," Maj-Gen Hossein Salami was quoted as saying.

He added that its accuracy was "80%”, but provided no evidence.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Sounds like baloney to me.
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Old 15th April 2020, 11:00 AM   #981
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What Do Countries With The Best Coronavirus Responses Have In Common?

Not surprised.
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Old 15th April 2020, 12:27 PM   #982
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Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
Has Cyril had a sex-change yet?

I've seen that meme a few places and I think there's some merit in it, because I'm sure women have more and deeper empathy than men.

Just thank christ that evil Thatcher bitch is still rotting in her grave.
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Old 15th April 2020, 12:30 PM   #983
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Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
Plus Greece (with a male PM), whose response was exemplary.
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Old 15th April 2020, 12:47 PM   #984
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Have to keep the number of fatalities under the government's own 20,000 forecast otherwise it'll be clear that the response has been bungled.

Deliberately failing to count a significant proportion of cases would certainly be one way to achieve that
Not sure what a coroner has to do with anything since deaths due to covid-19 do not have to be reported to coroner. Not sure what counties have to do with it.
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/...arch_2020-.pdf
No evidence in current instructions that there should be any difficulty in signing a death certificate with covid-19 as a cause of death.

I suspect your source is fake news.
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Old 15th April 2020, 01:01 PM   #985
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On this site, it is interesting how many people will jump to report a twitter feed or other dubious source as fact because it addresses their preconceived notions.

A good example is the fake Dyson narrative;

Fake narrative.
Quote:
Dyson gave £millions to conservative party.
SARS-CoV-2 pandemic occurs modelling suggests there will be a requirement for thousands of ITU beds and ventilators.
Dyson phones pals at government and says "don't bother ordering ventilators from those Germans I'll build thousands of British ventilators, just send me the cheque."
Government says OK we won't order any ventilators from any other companies.
Dyson banks money.
True Narrative
Quote:
SARS-CoV-2 pandemic occurs modelling suggests there will be a requirement for thousands of ITU beds and ventilators.
Government orders hundreds of ventilators from ventilator companies, tens are delivered and companies say they cannot deliver the number wanted in the time scale needed.
Government goes to ITU doctors and says can you give us the minimum requirements for a ventilator needed for Covid-19.
Government puts out specification and requests bids for rapid manufacture of ventilators.
Dyson pairs up with Cambridge based medical engineering company to combine their expertise in medical engineering and Dyson expertise in mass manufacturing and partnership submit bid. several other companies submit bids.
No money or contract will be exchanged until ventilator design meets specifications and passes regulatory approval.
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Old 15th April 2020, 02:15 PM   #986
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Originally Posted by Cheetah View Post
What a stupid article. Here are the deaths per million numbers for the nations she listed:

Denmark
53
 
Iceland
23
 
Finland
13
 
Germany
43
 
New Zealand
2
 
Norway
28
 
Taiwan
0.3
 

Looks impressive ... but! Here's a partial list of other countries with death rates less than 53 per million:
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Austria
  • Bahamas
  • Barbados
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Canada
  • Cayman Islands
  • Cyprus
  • Czechia
  • Dominican Republic
  • Ecuador
  • Estonia
  • Greece
  • Guadeloupe
  • Hungary
  • Isle of Man
  • Israel
  • Liechtenstein
  • Lithuania
  • Martinique
  • Mayotte
  • Moldova
  • North Macedonia
  • Panama
  • Romania
  • Saint Martin
  • Serbia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Turks and Caicos

And last I checked, Justin was Prime Minister of Canada, not Sophie.

This is a textbook case of cherry-picking data.
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Old 15th April 2020, 02:18 PM   #987
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I don't understand this comment the government specification is
From another article on this, we have:
Quote:
The MHRA criteria for ventilators states: "Ventilators would be for short-term stabilization for a few hours, but this may be extended up to one-day use for a patient in extremis as the bare minimum function.

"Ideally it would also be able to function as a broader function ventilator which could support a patient through a number of days, when more advanced ventilatory support becomes necessary."
https://www.newsweek.com/ventilator-...expert-1497950

I'm no expert in this, but it looks like the spec was for a ventilator for short term use. It might be that these companies (Dyson, Mclaren Rolls Royce etc) would struggle to make ventilators to be sufficient for a patient beyond a few hours, as the spec to see a patient through for longer maybe harder to achieve.
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Old 15th April 2020, 02:53 PM   #988
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Hancock praised 99-year-old Captain Tom Moore for raising £7m for the NHS by walking round his garden. That £7m is roughly what the Conservative government has taken out of the NHS daily for10 years.
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Old 15th April 2020, 03:04 PM   #989
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Hancock praised 99-year-old Captain Tom Moore for raising £7m for the NHS by walking round his garden. That £7m is roughly what the Conservative government has taken out of the NHS daily for10 years.
Nice match.
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Old 15th April 2020, 03:08 PM   #990
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Originally Posted by Blue Mountain View Post
What a stupid article. Here are the deaths per million numbers for the nations she listed:

Denmark
53
 
Iceland
23
 
Finland
13
 
Germany
43
 
New Zealand
2
 
Norway
28
 
Taiwan
0.3
 

Looks impressive ... but! Here's a partial list of other countries with death rates less than 53 per million:
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Austria
  • Bahamas
  • Barbados
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Canada
  • Cayman Islands
  • Cyprus
  • Czechia
  • Dominican Republic
  • Ecuador
  • Estonia
  • Greece
  • Guadeloupe
  • Hungary
  • Isle of Man
  • Israel
  • Liechtenstein
  • Lithuania
  • Martinique
  • Mayotte
  • Moldova
  • North Macedonia
  • Panama
  • Romania
  • Saint Martin
  • Serbia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Turks and Caicos

And last I checked, Justin was Prime Minister of Canada, not Sophie.

This is a textbook case of cherry-picking data.
The high lite is correct, but totally irrelevant to the article, which does not name Justin, Sophie, or Canada.
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Old 15th April 2020, 03:11 PM   #991
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
a) Some common corona viruses induce less than a year of immunity. If COVID-19 behaves this way then it's effectively impossible to achieve herd immunity via infection

b)With it's observed rate of mortality and critical cases it's likely impossible to achieve high rates of immunity without overloading health services.
Agreed.

Purpose of flattening the curve has very little to do with achieving immunity, it is mostly about not overwhelming the health care system. An overwhelmed system results in many more deaths - both from COVID-19 and from other illnesses that can't attain treatment.

Flattening the curve with social distancing actually slows down herd immunity by reducing transmission over a much longer time-line. And as lomiller mentioned, that's all contingent on whether or not immunity to COVID-19 is conferred for any reasonable period of time, or whether it behaves more like our normal coronaviruses for which we don't retain immunity.
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Old 15th April 2020, 05:10 PM   #992
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
The high lite is correct, but totally irrelevant to the article, which does not name Justin, Sophie, or Canada.
The article's headline was "What Do Countries With The Best Coronavirus Responses Have In Common?" and the answer was clearly "They have a female as head of government." Except that's definitely not the case. I quickly found 30 other countries that have a death rate less than that of Denmark (which the author points out as having the "best" coronavirus response,) and I'm certain not all of them have a woman leader. I know Canada doesn't.

Now some of those countries may be early on the infection curve and eventually end up with more than 53 deaths per million, but not all of them. The article started with the conclusion and cherry picked data to support it.
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Old 15th April 2020, 05:24 PM   #993
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
No need - the numbers speak for themselves.

Compare Sweden - 10m pop, 961 deaths, 465 new cases yesterday, with:

Australia - 25m pop, 61 deaths, 46 new cases yesterday, or,

NZ - 5m pop, 5 deaths, 19 new cases yesterday.

Which of those countries look like they're well on the way to eradicating Covid-19?
Remarkable that Sweden had all the time to analyse the Wuhan solution and proceeded with "herd immunity" and permanent organ damage for hapless citizens. Netherlands ditto.
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Old 15th April 2020, 06:04 PM   #994
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Yep, it's pretty noticeable how much worse countries that didn't act immediately look against countries that did.

UK - 12,800 dead from 80,000 infections.
Germany - 3,800 dead from 130,000 infections.

You'd almost think there's a strong case to make for early action. I tell ya, Jacinda will be able to apply for president of the planet if she manages to keep a lid on it here.
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Old 15th April 2020, 06:17 PM   #995
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I must say, Jacinda's signal today is a masterclass of common sense and helping the economy.

Workers will return to most employers, but only contactless business can be done, so expect an explosion of Uber eats immediately.

Most important of all, sentinel testing has begun, so pretty well all the bases are covered.

If this all works - and there's no reason it shouldn't - NZ's response will form the blueprint of how to handle a pandemic in the future.

Full details here: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...kdown-will-end
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Old 15th April 2020, 06:35 PM   #996
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Originally Posted by Blue Mountain View Post
The article's headline was "What Do Countries With The Best Coronavirus Responses Have In Common?" and the answer was clearly "They have a female as head of government." Except that's definitely not the case. I quickly found 30 other countries that have a death rate less than that of Denmark (which the author points out as having the "best" coronavirus response,) and I'm certain not all of them have a woman leader. I know Canada doesn't.

Now some of those countries may be early on the infection curve and eventually end up with more than 53 deaths per million, but not all of them. The article started with the conclusion and cherry picked data to support it.
Got it. I was not following your though process too well. My bad.

Maybe it counts for something in Canada that our top medical officer, who is Trudeau’s primary source of COVID-19 info, is a woman, as are 4 provincial MO’s.
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Old 15th April 2020, 06:44 PM   #997
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Hancock praised 99-year-old Captain Tom Moore for raising £7m for the NHS by walking round his garden. That £7m is roughly what the Conservative government has taken out of the NHS daily for10 years.
Since there has been a year on year increase in NHS funding, your statement as put is untrue. I suspect you may mean something more nuanced such as over the past 10 years accounting for inflation the NHS budget is £25 billion less than it would have been if it had increased inline with inflation (you may wish to specify which measure of inflation you used).
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/project...ell/nhs-budget

Although the Kings fund says that there was real growth of 1.4% taking into account inflation.

Without more information on your assumptions this would seem to be false.

ETA also looked here for the basis of your figures
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publi...%20summary.pdf

I have tried quite hard to verify this as it would be a nice thing to quote, but in good faith I cannot.

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Old 15th April 2020, 07:00 PM   #998
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I must say, Jacinda's signal today is a masterclass of common sense and helping the economy.

Workers will return to most employers, but only contactless business can be done, so expect an explosion of Uber eats immediately.

Most important of all, sentinel testing has begun, so pretty well all the bases are covered.

If this all works - and there's no reason it shouldn't - NZ's response will form the blueprint of how to handle a pandemic in the future.

Full details here: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...kdown-will-end
I can see this approach with careful restrictions on travel could work for islands with a co-operative population (e.g. it might be problematic in Papua). I am not certain that it would work for the UK as I am not sure disenfranchised populations will buy in, and the UK population may be high enough to support prolonged background circulation. I am also not certain how this fits with EU free movement legislation, thinking about Ireland, Malta, Cyprus etc. I think it may be very difficult for continental countries with extensive and porous land borders. I can see that this is a good plan for NZ / Australia and many other islands.
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Old 15th April 2020, 08:53 PM   #999
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As of today, the US has reported more deaths from COVID-19 (28,529) than Canada has reported infections (28,379.) Some of this is due to the high population density in New York City. Some of it is due to different responses by the government in each country and, possibly, differences in how much the population trusts its leadership. It will take a fair amount of study after the pandemic dies down, perhaps even after the expected second and third waves, to determine all the factors that played a role in these numbers.
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Old 15th April 2020, 09:16 PM   #1000
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I can see this approach with careful restrictions on travel could work for islands with a co-operative population (e.g. it might be problematic in Papua). I am not certain that it would work for the UK as I am not sure disenfranchised populations will buy in, and the UK population may be high enough to support prolonged background circulation. I am also not certain how this fits with EU free movement legislation, thinking about Ireland, Malta, Cyprus etc. I think it may be very difficult for continental countries with extensive and porous land borders. I can see that this is a good plan for NZ / Australia and many other islands.
Yeah, it wouldn't work with porous borders. Good point on Papua!

I just hope it works for the Pacific Islands, who are all on pretty much the same path, but don't have hospitals to anything like the standard of NZ/Oz.
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