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16th November 2012, 08:13 AM | #4121 |
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"You're a sick SOB. You know that, Wollery?" - Roadtoad "Just think how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider!" --George Carlin |
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16th November 2012, 08:31 AM | #4122 |
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Carbon Dating/Protocols
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"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Se due argomenti sembrano altrettanto convincenti, il meno sarcastico č probabilmente corretto." Jabba's Razor |
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16th November 2012, 08:43 AM | #4123 |
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You can't defeat fascism through debate because it's not simply an idea, proposal or theory. It's a fundamentally flawed way of looking at the world. It's a distorting prism, emotionally charged and completely logic-proof. You may as well challenge rabies to a game of Boggle. @ViolettaCrisis |
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16th November 2012, 08:44 AM | #4124 |
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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16th November 2012, 09:03 AM | #4125 |
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Carbon Dating/Smoking Gun?/Probability
Wollery,
- Sorry about that. I thought "the scientific model" was what I had called the particular worldview referred to in my treatise at http://messiahornot.com/ACT2Scene1.php. Instead, I called it the "Non-Religious Hypothesis." See below. According to the typical non-religious hypothesis of personal existence, YOU are a random and one short-lived accident (at most), and would never exist if your parents had never met. The same would be true if your grandparents had never met – on either side of the family. This can be traced back for … a long time. And if just one of these chance meetings had not taken place, you would never exist. It gets worse. Not only did your parents have to meet, the right sperm cell had to meet the right ovum. Otherwise, the results wouldn’t be you – it would be your brother or sister. And, as it turns out, your father probably produced quadrillion sperm cells in his lifetime and your mother was born with several hundred ova. You happen to be the specific combination of just one of those sperm cells and just one of those ova – no other combination would do. And, just think of all those potential offspring from your Dad and Cleopatra -- they never had a chance! And worse. Since you will only live for about 100 years, there is another, infinitesimally small, probability that has to be factored in – the probability that now would coincide with your existence. It is much more likely that now would be some other time altogether, along this infinite continuum of time… --- Jabba |
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"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Se due argomenti sembrano altrettanto convincenti, il meno sarcastico č probabilmente corretto." Jabba's Razor |
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16th November 2012, 09:09 AM | #4126 |
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"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Se due argomenti sembrano altrettanto convincenti, il meno sarcastico č probabilmente corretto." Jabba's Razor |
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16th November 2012, 09:10 AM | #4127 |
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16th November 2012, 09:24 AM | #4128 |
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Carbon Dating/Smoking Gun?/Probability
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"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Se due argomenti sembrano altrettanto convincenti, il meno sarcastico č probabilmente corretto." Jabba's Razor |
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16th November 2012, 09:25 AM | #4129 |
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16th November 2012, 09:31 AM | #4130 |
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"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Se due argomenti sembrano altrettanto convincenti, il meno sarcastico č probabilmente corretto." Jabba's Razor |
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16th November 2012, 09:31 AM | #4131 |
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As I said several posts ago, it's essentially a version the anthropic argument, and as arguments go it's a pretty poor excuse for one.
The probability of you existing is extremely low, if, and only if, you were to assume that you had to exist at this particular place and time in the Universe. It assumes that there's a specific reason for you to exist, or that you are in some way special in the wider context of the Universe. But what if you aren't? It's essentially the same argument as the puddle argument; A puddle of water starts to think. It says to itself, wow, this hole that I'm sitting in is amazingly comfortable. In fact, it's just the right size and shape for me. This hole must have been made especially for me to sit in. I must be very important. There must be a reason that someone made this hole just the right shape for me to sit in. Of course the puddle has it completely backwards. The puddle is that shape because water changes shape to fit the hole that it's in. The hole could have any shape and size that you could imagine, and the puddle would fit into it. It's the same with us and the Universe. The Earth wasn't made so that we would be able to live on it, we adapted to the conditions that were present on Earth. You weren't born for any particular reason, you're just the end result of billions of years of evolution. A long chain of random events which could have gone any one of several billion different ways. Except that they happened to go this way. As you've repeatedly said, you wouldn't be suspicious of an apparently hodgepodge sequence of cards, even though any one sequence is just as unlikely as the sequence that produces a string of aces. And therein lies the fundamental mistake that you make. We're the end result of a hodgepodge sequence of cards, not a string of aces. We could have been a string of aces, that's just as unlikely as the sequence that lead to us, but we could just as easily have been some other hodgepodge sequence. We're the result of a randomly shuffled deck. When you deal the cards they're going to be in some sequence of 52 cards, and each sequence is just as unlikely as any other, but you have to have one, and only one specific sequence for every shuffle and deal. This is the hand you were dealt. It isn't all aces. Deal with it. |
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16th November 2012, 09:34 AM | #4132 |
a carbon based life-form
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The jack of spades and we all have cider in our ears.
Sky Masterson: One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider. |
16th November 2012, 09:34 AM | #4133 |
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16th November 2012, 09:38 AM | #4134 |
a carbon based life-form
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16th November 2012, 09:41 AM | #4135 |
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16th November 2012, 09:43 AM | #4136 |
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Carbon Dating/Smoking Gun?/Probability
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"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Se due argomenti sembrano altrettanto convincenti, il meno sarcastico č probabilmente corretto." Jabba's Razor |
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16th November 2012, 09:47 AM | #4137 |
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See ya later.
- I've gotta go for now. It's been nice talkin to y'all this morning. Talk to ya again real soon.
--- Jabba |
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"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Se due argomenti sembrano altrettanto convincenti, il meno sarcastico č probabilmente corretto." Jabba's Razor |
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16th November 2012, 09:50 AM | #4138 |
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@Jabba
When you wrote the following, you were writing nonsense.
Quote:
The chance of a previously specified person winning a national lottery jackpot is millions to one. But the chances of the jackpot being won by some person or other are very high indeed, because millions of people buy tickets. Is it a miracle every time someone wins, because whoever it is who wins does so against odds of millions to one? How absurd! |
16th November 2012, 09:50 AM | #4139 |
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Then how is this end of a sequence of equally improbable events any more special than any other end of a sequence?
You seem to be missing the point. In your card example we get suspicious because we keep drawing aces, even though a hodgepodge sequence would be just as unlikely. A hodgepodge sequence is just as unlikely. If your argument is that the sequence of events that lead to you existing is incredibly unlikely then you haven't shown that it's a sequence of aces. Every single hodgepodge sequence is just as unlikely. Unless you can show that you are the ace of spades, rather than the 3 of clubs then your entire argument is moot. Remember, every sequence is unlikely, so the fact that you are the end result of an unlikely sequence is trivially true. It's self evident. You are the end of a sequence, therefore your existence is unlikely, so merely being the end of a sequence does not make you in any way special or demonstrate that the sequence was all aces. Your argument is a tautology, and proves precisely nothing. |
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16th November 2012, 10:14 AM | #4140 |
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To put it slightly differently, Jabba, the probability of you existing in this form at this time with so-and-so ancestors is exactly one. Because it's already happened.
I think the problem here with this line of thinking is that it's always after-the-fact reasoning -- some dude looks back at his life and says 'what are the odds of this happening?! It's gotta be 1 in a quatrillion billion jillion!' Nope. The odds are one. I'm open to being corrected, but it seems that the only reason Jabba would be suspect of a deck of cards which drew a string of Aces is the meaning that humans attach to that string, and nothing more. As wollery has pointed out many times, in a card game such as poker, each hand has the same probability of being drawn. Everybody wants the Ace, King, Queen, Jack and ten of spades because of the rules which say it's the best hand in the entire game. We make it special, it isn't inherently so. This is the same with humanity -- we make us special, we aren't inherently so. |
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16th November 2012, 10:20 AM | #4141 |
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16th November 2012, 10:24 AM | #4142 |
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Another way to put Jabba's argument: Something has happened, therefore God.
Is that right? |
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16th November 2012, 10:33 AM | #4143 |
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"You're a sick SOB. You know that, Wollery?" - Roadtoad "Just think how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are even stupider!" --George Carlin |
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16th November 2012, 10:42 AM | #4144 |
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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16th November 2012, 10:44 AM | #4145 |
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Jabba,
Serious question which, I think, may clarify my objections to your argument: Assuming that your Ace analysis is correct, is there anyone to whom it does not apply? ETA: I know this is not the C14 data, but that horse is long dead. It is clear to everyone that there has been nothing put forth to dispute. We can occasionally remind lurkers of that, but I see little reason to avoid discussion of other areas that result in erroneous thinking and conclusions. |
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16th November 2012, 11:16 AM | #4146 |
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16th November 2012, 01:33 PM | #4147 |
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Carbon Dating/Smoking Gun?/Probability
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"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Se due argomenti sembrano altrettanto convincenti, il meno sarcastico č probabilmente corretto." Jabba's Razor |
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16th November 2012, 03:03 PM | #4148 |
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Thanks for the direct answer. Let's assume solipsism doesn't hold here.
So your reasoning applies to you, to me, to everyone on the internet, and everyone everywhere everytime. In your analogy, then, there should be no normal decks. Every deck is a deck of Aces because everyone is an Ace. With me so far? |
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16th November 2012, 03:40 PM | #4149 |
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Jabba, think of the sheer unlikelihood of this:
The universe is created. Trees evolve. One particular forest grows, with each tree being seeded by 2 (or 1, depending on species) tree before it, relying on insects for germination, for generation after generation, ending up with a forest with specific trees, all of which are arranged in a specific pattern like no way trees have been arranged before. Specific humans who are unique and special harvest these trees and pulp them, mixing parts of them up with parts of others of them in ways that these atoms have never been arranged before. This wood pulp is turned into paper, which is then used to make all kinds of books. One of those books is read, loved and eventually recycled. Those recycled paper molecules are pulped again, mixed with yet more paper molecules in an arrangement that has never happened before on this planet and never will again, and fashioned into yet more paper. Does that mean that what I wiped my bum with this morning is a deck full of aces? If not, why not? That particular sheet of bog roll existing is at least as unlikely as you existing. |
16th November 2012, 04:12 PM | #4150 |
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OK.
Here are the threee posts Jabba says contains thereasons why the C14 dating is dodgy: All this has been gone over. I'm actually surprised Jabba would even bring up the contamination argument yet again. As for the protocols, who dropped them? Is Jabba suggesting the Vatican sabotaged the testing? Back to the invisible patch idea, Jabba? Really? This third post is a rehash of the other two. |
16th November 2012, 04:59 PM | #4151 |
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Except that it is, please excuse my verbage, BLOOD STUPID. The claim is entirely disproven by merely proving that BLOOD existed in the 14th century. Since humans existed, and humans have blood, your claim is wrong.
See what I mean?
Quote:
Oh, and speaking of expertise: You claimed to be a statistician, yet I see no equations. Please provide them. I was kind enough to give you proof of my profesional competance; please do the same. Considering how horribly you've botched all the topics you've engaged in thus far (quite literally demonstrating you do not have a high school level of understanding of history, science, and a few other subjects), you've got a LOT of work to do repairing your credibility, and refusing to provide evidence that you are actually knowledgeable about statistics (not to mention botching them tremendously, as your discussion of the probability of your existence demonstrates) only further erodes it. And considering how often you've given mere opinions, your credibility IS a valid topic. |
16th November 2012, 05:09 PM | #4152 |
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OK, let's try this.
Consider a software simulation of the card deck scenario that contains the following sequence of operations:
Every time it is executed, one of three things will occur:
We count:
= The number of times an ace is drawn from the Ace deck / The number of times the procedure is executed P(Ace drawn) = (The number of times an Ace is drawn from the Ace deck / The number of times the procedure is executed) + (The number of times an Ace is drawn from the regular deck) / The number of times the procedure is executed) What I am saying is that we should see: P(All-Ace deck|Ace drawn) = (approximately!) 0.2097 P(Ace drawn) = (approximately!) 0.02 + 0.075385 = 0.095385 as I computed earlier in post #4040. Does this clarify things? |
Last edited by Humots; 16th November 2012 at 05:16 PM. Reason: Edited to add a "+" to the P(Ace drawn) expression |
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16th November 2012, 05:15 PM | #4153 |
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Edited to add a "+" to the P(Ace drawn) expression
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16th November 2012, 07:05 PM | #4154 |
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Sorry for the extraneous post. I've never used the Edit function before.
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17th November 2012, 12:51 AM | #4155 |
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It's amazing the amount of time Jabba can find to spend here when allowed to waffle on about distractions and to solicit traffic to his website. When pressed to explain the carbon dating he disappears for days.
At least he has stopped pretending he has any thing more than "goddidit." |
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You can't defeat fascism through debate because it's not simply an idea, proposal or theory. It's a fundamentally flawed way of looking at the world. It's a distorting prism, emotionally charged and completely logic-proof. You may as well challenge rabies to a game of Boggle. @ViolettaCrisis |
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17th November 2012, 01:05 AM | #4156 |
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Never mind.
The cards are irrelevant to the issue. If Jabba cannot find any serious objection to the carbon dating, little else matters (though, as it happens, none of the other evidence contradicts it). |
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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17th November 2012, 01:17 AM | #4157 |
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In this analogy there is no prior reason to think a pack composed entirely of Aces even exists, let alone that there is a 1 in 50 chance that the pack being drawn from is such a pack rather than a normal one.
ETA: that was a reply to the post zooterkin just deleted. |
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"If you trust in yourself ... and believe in your dreams ... and follow your star ... you'll still get beaten by people who spent their time working hard and learning things" - Terry Pratchett |
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17th November 2012, 02:56 AM | #4158 |
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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17th November 2012, 06:41 AM | #4159 |
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Carbon Dating/Relevance of Blood
Originally Posted by Jabba
- The following is why, in broadest terms, the issue of blood and “serum clot retraction rings” is relevant to our debate re the validity of a carbon dating of the 14th century for the Shroud. - I claim that the probability of a 14th century artist being able to create an image that includes numerous “serum clot retraction rings” on it approaches zero. Since I constitute one of the sides in this debate, my claim is relevant by definition. - See what I mean? Dinwar, - I think so. You're accepting that it's relevant -- just that, it's also stupid. --- Jabba |
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"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence." Charles Bukowski "Most good ideas don't work." Jabba "Se due argomenti sembrano altrettanto convincenti, il meno sarcastico č probabilmente corretto." Jabba's Razor |
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17th November 2012, 06:54 AM | #4160 |
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The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20 |
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