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Tags donald trump , Trump administration , Trump controversies

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Old 3rd July 2017, 02:14 AM   #81
The Don
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
They have at least two other options: vote third party or don't vote at all. There will be some of each among GOP voters, more than usual, I suspect. Will it be enough? We'll see, but I hope so.
I hope so too but I think it would be foolish of the Democratic Party to rely upon it for electoral success. Instead they need to find a candidate who is positively enticing, a Bill Clinton or an Obama. Perhaps someone who has learned from Trump to "own" past indiscretions rather than continually apologise for them and allow the media to bully them.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 02:14 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
The "oh, Trump made everyone crazy, but it's just a dumb tweet" defenses have begun.
Few people make nothing but dumb tweets, however.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 02:31 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I hope so too but I think it would be foolish of the Democratic Party to rely upon it for electoral success. Instead they need to find a candidate who is positively enticing, a Bill Clinton or an Obama. Perhaps someone who has learned from Trump to "own" past indiscretions rather than continually apologise for them and allow the media to bully them.
(bolding mine)

That is a very good point, imo.
Macron did just that. "J'assume", he repeatedly said when confronted about his supposedly unpopular policies. He owned his pro-Europe stand, his labor reform program, etc
Compare that to Hillary Clinton, who, for example, changed her position on trade under pressure from Sanders. That made her look weak and unprincipled.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 02:31 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Few people make nothing but dumb tweets, however.
That's "modern presidential" for you

Last edited by The Don; 3rd July 2017 at 02:33 AM.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 03:45 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Poll numbers right now are pretty meaningless. The next election is still over 3 years away.

But almost always a sitting president will be his party's nominee in the next election. Usually without a serious challenger either (since Carter).

I do suspect that Trump will have a serious challenger, but the incumbent president still has the advantage unless his approval ratings really get bad. I think it will depend on whether the economy gets worse between now and then, or some sort of major scandal (bigger than the current ones).
Kasich certainly appears to be positioning himself to run again in 2020. It also wouldn't surprise me to see the McMullin crowd push Ben Sasse to run.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 03:55 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
That's "modern presidential" for you
Alternative President.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 04:13 AM   #87
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Trump might think that his "sticking it to the media" gains him something, but in fact the news-shows and comedy programs are playing him the same way he played them during the primaries and elections;
after all, Trump isn't running for anything in the next for 3 years, but TV hosts run for ratings constantly. The more he engages with them, the more he assures that they will get viewers.
Luckily for them, Trump doesn't understand that his job as president isn't to get air-time: he truly is Zaphod Beeblebrox with his sense of style and humor amputated.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 04:21 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Trump might think that his "sticking it to the media" gains him something, but in fact the news-shows and comedy programs are playing him the same way he played them during the primaries and elections;
after all, Trump isn't running for anything in the next for 3 years, but TV hosts run for ratings constantly. The more he engages with them, the more he assures that they will get viewers.
Luckily for them, Trump doesn't understand that his job as president isn't to get air-time: he truly is Zaphod Beeblebrox with his sense of style and humor amputated.
All of this is true but his approval rating among Republicans is at 85% according to Gallup, and has been rising the last few weeks. President Trump seems to be doing the right thing - at least as far as GOP supporters are concerned. As I have mentioned elsewhere, I've had a bit of an epiphany and come to the conclusion that the issue isn't President Trump, or the GOP's unwillingness to take him to task but rather the fact that for a significant proportion of Americans, he is exactly the sort of President they want and his policies are exactly what they want.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 04:25 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Remember when Trump voters said that Trump would act more maturely once in office?
At least he brings the dignity of not being black, so many people felt horribly ashamed of having a black man as their leader, he makes them feel proud.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 04:30 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
All of this is true but his approval rating among Republicans is at 85% according to Gallup, and has been rising the last few weeks. President Trump seems to be doing the right thing - at least as far as GOP supporters are concerned. As I have mentioned elsewhere, I've had a bit of an epiphany and come to the conclusion that the issue isn't President Trump, or the GOP's unwillingness to take him to task but rather the fact that for a significant proportion of Americans, he is exactly the sort of President they want and his policies are exactly what they want.
The GOP pretended for 7 years that all the voters want is stopping Obama. Now that they are in charge, they can't get anything done.
Yes, Trump got elected as a giant middle finger to educated, progressive America, but also as someone "who can get things done": being nothing but a troll won't work forever.
Or to put it another way: from 85% approval there is only one way to go: down. This support has a lot of expectations priced in, expectations that can't be met since not even the core GOP can decide what it wants: as long as Trump does nothing, he can't do anything wrong. But as soon as anything serious gets passed, half of the Republicans base will get pissed off.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 04:45 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
But as soon as anything serious gets passed, half of the Republicans base will get pissed off.
I'm not so sure of that.

For example, the current healthcare proposals will immediately deliver tax cuts and lower premiums (albeit for effectively useless insurance) which will be massively appealing.

The penalties, when the deficit once again spirals out of control, when people lose coverage, premiums for some groups start soaring or when people find that their cheap insurance delivers nothing in terms of benefits come much later, after the crucial elections.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 04:50 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm not so sure of that.

For example, the current healthcare proposals will immediately deliver tax cuts and lower premiums (albeit for effectively useless insurance) which will be massively appealing.

The penalties, when the deficit once again spirals out of control, when people lose coverage, premiums for some groups start soaring or when people find that their cheap insurance delivers nothing in terms of benefits come much later, after the crucial elections.
Eventually. They don't start coming down until after 2020 until then they're increasing over what the ACA offered for better coverage. Aside from the under 25 making over $75,000 demographic, they make out like bandits immediately.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 04:55 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
All of this is true but his approval rating among Republicans is at 85% according to Gallup
Wow, that is a lot of stupid people.

Voting for him, I may understand. Aside from spite or ignorance there may be legitimate reasons for doing that. But continuing to support him after the -- I dare say, objectively -- terrible presidency he's had so far can't be called anything else but idiotic.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 04:58 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Wow, that is a lot of stupid people.

Voting for him, I may understand. Aside from spite or ignorance there may be legitimate reasons for doing that. But continuing to support him after the -- I dare say, objectively -- terrible presidency he's had so far can't be called anything else but idiotic.
You just have to find the right set of facts. I mean with out him how are we supposed to get a judiciary that knows that this is a christian nation? He nominated the only christian on the supreme court at this time after all. The rest are all papists and jews.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 05:01 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Wow, that is a lot of stupid people.

Voting for him, I may understand. Aside from spite or ignorance there may be legitimate reasons for doing that. But continuing to support him after the -- I dare say, objectively -- terrible presidency he's had so far can't be called anything else but idiotic.
A significant number of Trump voters, ~40%, get their news exclusively from Fox News. If that was your only source of news, you'd have a warped view of reality too.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 05:03 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Wow, that is a lot of stupid people.

Voting for him, I may understand. Aside from spite or ignorance there may be legitimate reasons for doing that. But continuing to support him after the -- I dare say, objectively -- terrible presidency he's had so far can't be called anything else but idiotic.
That may be your opinion (and one that I share) but that fails to take into account the completely different ways other people judge their political leaders.

Some people will approve of Trump continuing to rail against the fake media, liberals, elitists and the like. Even if he gets nothing done they'll approve of him for at least speaking for them.

Others are so invested in having a right-wing Christian SCOTUS that even if Trump screws up every other single thing, from their perspective he is a huge success because he got Gorsuch onto the Supreme Court.

Some simply think he's a "genuine kind of guy" (IMO similar to those who found Dubya "folksy") and so they'll still approve of him.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 05:18 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Yes there was a swing towards the Democratic Party, but all four seats were retained by the GOP.
The swings were enough to make four safe Republican seats, held with 20-25% margins, competitive with margins of under 5%, in just six months of Trump. This isn't a minor swing, a swing like that in a presidential election makes Texas go to a Democrat with votes to spare and make Democrats competitive in places like Alabama and Kansas.

Granted, these were just special elections where no doubt anyone not a fan of Trump wanted to make their voice heard, more so than Trump voters, so we shouldn't expect a Democrat clean sweep in 2020. Neither should we think Trump is unassailable in that election.

Quote:
My message to the Democratic Party would be that you cannot rely on "not Trump" to get you back in the game, you need a clear, enticing message well communicated.
Sure, this one is a no-starter. Come 2020 Nottrump could be enough to win anything, but Democrats shouldn't be complacent about it and field the best candidate they can. Had they done so in 2016 we wouldn't be living this nightmare right now.

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Old 3rd July 2017, 05:23 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
All of this is true but his approval rating among Republicans is at 85% according to Gallup, and has been rising the last few weeks. President Trump seems to be doing the right thing - at least as far as GOP supporters are concerned. As I have mentioned elsewhere, I've had a bit of an epiphany and come to the conclusion that the issue isn't President Trump, or the GOP's unwillingness to take him to task but rather the fact that for a significant proportion of Americans, he is exactly the sort of President they want and his policies are exactly what they want.
Yup.

He acts in a way 40% of the electorate or so wants the president to behave. Short of a major disaster he makes even worse with his ineptitude, they won't abandon him. Trump is a symptom of the problem, not the problem itself.

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Old 3rd July 2017, 05:26 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
As I have mentioned elsewhere, I've had a bit of an epiphany and come to the conclusion that the issue isn't President Trump, or the GOP's unwillingness to take him to task but rather the fact that for a significant proportion of Americans, he is exactly the sort of President they want and his policies are exactly what they want.
Or at least his policies are exactly what they THINK they want.

IMHO, as long as Trump maintains a high approval rating from GOP members, no GOP senators or congresspeople will do more than make an occasional weak comment about his needing to act more presidential.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 05:28 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The GOP pretended for 7 years that all the voters want is stopping Obama. Now that they are in charge, they can't get anything done.
Yes, Trump got elected as a giant middle finger to educated, progressive America, but also as someone "who can get things done": being nothing but a troll won't work forever.
Or to put it another way: from 85% approval there is only one way to go: down. This support has a lot of expectations priced in, expectations that can't be met since not even the core GOP can decide what it wants: as long as Trump does nothing, he can't do anything wrong. But as soon as anything serious gets passed, half of the Republicans base will get pissed off.
Hopefully you're correct and we'll start seeing the Lame Duck Trump this time next year at latest.

That said, I have some experience with people who support him and people like him and it doesn't work that way. Supporting politicians like Trump was not a rational decision in the first place and cognitive dissonance makes them unwilling to drop support regardless of what he does or fails at. When he fails they'll double down on Democrat obstructionism or whatever other excuse Trump will throw their way and support him even more. It's as fascinating as it is dangerous.

I hope most of GOP base isn't like that and his hard floor is substantially lower than 40% he's been at for the past two months, but I wouldn't hold my breath. He's already done about six major missteps that should disqualify him for presidency and they still support him. Every time they double down on him like that makes it harder for them to abandon Trump at the polls or wherever. The upside is he won't rise from the floor either I guess, but 40% is enough to avoid impeachment, so he'll be around until 2021 at least.

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Old 3rd July 2017, 05:29 AM   #101
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And remember at this point in Bush 2's presidency he was viewed as a bland moderate.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 05:30 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
Can we please have a serious national discussion about the 25th Amendment now?
Because the president retweeted an internet meme?

This signature is intended to irradiate people.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 05:33 AM   #103
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
And remember at this point in Bush 2's presidency he was viewed as a bland moderate.
The rabid opposition to George W. Bush is biting Democrats in their backsides now. They went all out against him for eight years straight and now they got Trump to deal with.

Remember what happens to the boy who cried "Wolf!" in the end? Well, this happens.

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Old 3rd July 2017, 05:36 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The rabid opposition to George W. Bush is biting Democrats in their backsides now. They went all out against him for eight years straight and now they got Trump to deal with.
BS, the Daily Show was joking that he was a moderate at this point in his presidency. It took a lot more war crimes to get people against him in serious numbers.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 05:43 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
BS, the Daily Show was joking that he was a moderate at this point in his presidency. It took a lot more war crimes to get people against him in serious numbers.
It's like conservatives expect us to only have short-term memories and think they can rewrite history without us noticing.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 06:11 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
It's like conservatives expect us to only have short-term memories and think they can rewrite history without us noticing.
It works for their base so well though.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 06:12 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
A significant number of Trump voters, ~40%, get their news exclusively from Fox News. If that was your only source of news, you'd have a warped view of reality too.
On the other hand they watch Fox news because they already have that warped view of reality.

Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Some people will approve of Trump continuing to rail against the fake media, liberals, elitists and the like. Even if he gets nothing done they'll approve of him for at least speaking for them.

Others are so invested in having a right-wing Christian SCOTUS that even if Trump screws up every other single thing, from their perspective he is a huge success because he got Gorsuch onto the Supreme Court.
Yeah, those are the illegitimate reasons I hinted at.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 06:35 AM   #108
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Perhaps someone who has learned from Trump to "own" past indiscretions rather than continually apologise for them and allow the media to bully them.
I think the lesson from Trump is that changing your position when it's convenient is fine as long as your timing is good and you're sufficiently brazen about it. I recall Trump angrily insisting that he'd always been against the war in Iraq despite that being a lie. He also abandoned birtherism after he'd gotten everything he could out of it. Neither of those things seemed to hurt him much among Republicans.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 06:39 AM   #109
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Yeah, those are the illegitimate reasons I hinted at.
You may consider them illegitimate, and I may consider them to be weak, but AFAIK there's no ISO standard for legitimate political reasons

I know that a lot of my friends and acquaintances would consider both my political views to be utterly wrong and my reasons for holding them to be illegitimate - doesn't make them right.

Personally I'm very uncomfortable that there seems to be a large majority of people in the US for whom having a Christian-leaning SCOTUS and/or protection against the government coming for their guns or indeed a President showing the middle finger to convention and reasoned politics but that has more to do with my misjudgement that "people should be better than that" when both Trump's success and IMO the success of Brexit given the campaign that underpinned it seems to show that they really aren't
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Old 3rd July 2017, 06:58 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The rabid opposition to George W. Bush is biting Democrats in their backsides now. They went all out against him for eight years straight and now they got Trump to deal with.

Remember what happens to the boy who cried "Wolf!" in the end? Well, this happens.

McHrozni
Yeah, that's not how it went down. W got a lot of benefit of the doubt up to and including the aftermath of 9/11, including from me personally. I was tentatively supportive of going into Afghanistan under the assumption that the President surely knows more than I do about what is going on. He completely lost me going into Iraq, which made absolutely zero sense. Then came the war crimes, etc.

No, W earned his opposition just like Trump has earned, and continues to earn, his opposition now.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 06:59 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Because the president retweeted an internet meme?

This signature is intended to irradiate people.
yea, that's the only thing.

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Old 3rd July 2017, 07:05 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
You may consider them illegitimate, and I may consider them to be weak, but AFAIK there's no ISO standard for legitimate political reasons
Ooh, there's an idea! We'd need a SI unit for that, too.

Quote:
Personally I'm very uncomfortable that there seems to be a large majority of people in the US for whom having a Christian-leaning SCOTUS and/or protection against the government coming for their guns or indeed a President showing the middle finger to convention and reasoned politics but that has more to do with my misjudgement that "people should be better than that" when both Trump's success and IMO the success of Brexit given the campaign that underpinned it seems to show that they really aren't
Well, that's the failing of democracy: the government is as good as the people, instead of "better".
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Old 3rd July 2017, 07:22 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Ooh, there's an idea! We'd need a SI unit for that, too.



Well, that's the failing of democracy: the government is as good as the people, instead of "better".
That also supposes there exists an objective good. However, if good is subjective or difficult for an individual to know, democracy could be good for implementing the subjective good.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 07:26 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
That also supposes there exists an objective good.
Really? Where does it suppose that?
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Old 3rd July 2017, 07:50 AM   #115
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Really? Where does it suppose that?
"Government is as good as the people"

If people have various levels of good, you are making a statement that there is some objective good.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 07:55 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
"Government is as good as the people"

If people have various levels of good, you are making a statement that there is some objective good.
I'm actually not. I'm stating my personal opinion. You do understand the distinction, right? Someone who says "this is a good movie" isn't making a statement that there is an objective measure of how good movies are.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 08:09 AM   #117
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
I'm actually not. I'm stating my personal opinion. You do understand the distinction, right? Someone who says "this is a good movie" isn't making a statement that there is an objective measure of how good movies are.
I suppose a simple declarative statement that "this is good movie" could be interpreted by others that the individual making it has decided that there is a set of criteria that decides whether a movie is good or not and/or that their own personal judgement is such that it serves as a universal objective measure. This could be a faulty interpretation but then again I've encountered some on this board who certainly stray towards the latter interpretation in some, if not all, areas.

OTOH IMO if you say "I think this is a good movie" then any risk of such misinterpretation is removed and it's clear that you're merely providing a personal opinion
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Old 3rd July 2017, 08:10 AM   #118
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
I'm actually not. I'm stating my personal opinion. You do understand the distinction, right? Someone who says "this is a good movie" isn't making a statement that there is an objective measure of how good movies are.


A) statement was unqualified.

B) It isn't a significant difference. "I think this movie is good" and "this movie is good" are the same. "I like this movie" and "this movie is good" are different.

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Old 3rd July 2017, 08:15 AM   #119
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post

OTOH IMO if you say "I think this is a good movie" then any risk of such misinterpretation is removed and it's clear that you're merely providing a personal opinion
Any value based statement, even ones stating there is an objective value, is an opinion that someone thinks.
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Old 3rd July 2017, 08:17 AM   #120
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