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Tags gun control issues , gun control laws

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Old 12th July 2017, 09:49 PM   #121
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Which part? The distinction without a difference?
After thinking about this I changed my mind. You can indeed know with great accuracy what would have happened had the change not occurred. Besides that there is already a huge body of evidence that points to the fact that gun control, including a ban on concealed carry, leads to a reduction in gun related crime. The fact remains that the states with the strictest gun laws have the fewest gun related deaths.
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Old 13th July 2017, 03:45 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Statisticians don't model climate change.
But it is all useless with out a control earth.
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Old 13th July 2017, 04:33 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Statisticians model other realities all the time.
Hey, I model other realities all the time, too!

Quote:
You don't question their methods when they're modelling climate change
Well, first of all, yes I do, because I want to know how they came to that conclusion, as well. And second, that's not the same thing, anyway.
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Old 13th July 2017, 04:34 AM   #124
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Originally Posted by qayak View Post
After thinking about this I changed my mind. You can indeed know with great accuracy what would have happened had the change not occurred. Besides that there is already a huge body of evidence that points to the fact that gun control, including a ban on concealed carry, leads to a reduction in gun related crime. The fact remains that the states with the strictest gun laws have the fewest gun related deaths.
Aw, qayak! We were this close to actually agreeing on something!
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Old 13th July 2017, 07:55 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Yep. This thread is going pretty much exactly how I expected it to.
Biased article is biased. I trust the source of that article about as much as I trust the NRA.

Originally Posted by qayak View Post
The fact remains that the states with the strictest gun laws have the fewest gun related deaths.
Except for that pesky California, which dog gone it, seems to clock in around 2,500 to 3,000 fatalities a year from firearms, no matter what.

You'd think somebody want to might to starting trying to get at the root of underlying issues that drive people toward murder and suicide rather than the method used.

Naw, way easier to draft anti-gun legislation and make it look like our leaders are actually doing something other than sucking up a paycheck.
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Old 13th July 2017, 08:33 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by AJM8125 View Post
You'd think somebody want to might to starting trying to get at the root of underlying issues that drive people toward murder and suicide rather than the method used.

Naw, way easier to draft anti-gun legislation and make it look like our leaders are actually doing something other than sucking up a paycheck.
Remember, the primary purpose of legislation is to re-elect the legislator. So much the better if it is an ill-conceived knee-jerk reaction to some random event that merely gives the perception said legislator is doing something about it.
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Old 13th July 2017, 08:52 AM   #127
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Originally Posted by Mark F View Post
Remember, the primary purpose of legislation is to re-elect the legislator. So much the better if it is an ill-conceived knee-jerk reaction to some random event that merely gives the perception said legislator is doing something about it.
Keep the people scared so they elect you to protect them. Dems want to make us scared of guns, NRA wants to keep us scared of being un-armed. The wheels on the bus go round and round, powered by our election cycle.
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Old 13th July 2017, 08:56 AM   #128
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Keep the people scared so they elect you to protect them. Dems want to make us scared of guns, NRA wants to keep us scared of being un-armed. The wheels on the bus go round and round, powered by our election cycle.
You are supposed to be scared of guns, otherwise the thought that telling a cop that you are armed shouldn't be reasonable for them to panic and shoot. As it has been found to be reasonable to panic just because someone is carrying a legal fire arm clearly at least the police know that people with guns are terrifying and something everyone should feel is a threat.
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Old 13th July 2017, 09:02 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Keep the people scared so they elect you to protect them. Dems want to make us scared of guns, NRA wants to keep us scared of being un-armed. The wheels on the bus go round and round, powered by our election cycle.
How true that is.

I Live in the city with the strictest set of gun control laws in a gun control happy state.

None of those laws prevented this - go to 1:33 - 1:34. That's automatic weapon (or a semi-auto with an illegal trigger activator) fire:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
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Old 13th July 2017, 09:05 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
You are supposed to be scared of guns, otherwise the thought that telling a cop that you are armed shouldn't be reasonable for them to panic and shoot. As it has been found to be reasonable to panic just because someone is carrying a legal fire arm clearly at least the police know that people with guns are terrifying and something everyone should feel is a threat.
I encountered legally armed folks and never felt the need to shoot them out of hand.
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Old 13th July 2017, 09:37 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
I encountered legally armed folks and never felt the need to shoot them out of hand.
And clearly you are not what people look for in a cop anymore. The courts found it clear, having a gun while black is fundamentally threatening. Even the NRA doesn't try to argue with that.
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Old 13th July 2017, 09:48 AM   #132
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
And clearly you are not what people look for in a cop anymore. The courts found it clear, having a gun while black is fundamentally threatening. Even the NRA doesn't try to argue with that.
As it turns out HGWB (Having Gun While Black) is even scarier than PWB (Presidenting While Black).
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Old 13th July 2017, 09:48 AM   #133
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
And clearly you are not what people look for in a cop anymore. The courts found it clear, having a gun while black is fundamentally threatening. Even the NRA doesn't try to argue with that.
I know you don't want to hear it, but there are now and always have been a hell of a lot more men like me otj than the sorry excuses you believe are the majority.
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Old 13th July 2017, 10:38 AM   #134
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Why should law-abiding citizens have to apply for a permit to carry a concealed weapon? Why should we have background checks on guns if criminals will still get guns? Hell, a background check means someone with bad intentions will obtain his firearm by financially supporting criminal characters; if we had no restrictions, then he'd purchase his gun from a taxpayer. It's almost as if the discussion should have to do with the extent of gun control, not the legitimacy of regulation. It's almost as if the discussion should be informed by statistics than than intuition.
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Old 13th July 2017, 10:46 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
I know you don't want to hear it, but there are now and always have been a hell of a lot more men like me otj than the sorry excuses you believe are the majority.
Yea but you always cover for them and make sure they get their severance packages and jobs at different departments. In exactly how many of these shootings does the partner testify against the killer?

It always seems to be only the crappy cops around whenever there is a shooting, why aren't the supposed majority of cops who are good ever around?

The answer is simple it is about 15% bad cops 15% good cops and 70% neutral cops. BUt the culture is sure to weed out the good ones so that the neutral ones know to protect the bad ones.

I would testify against my coworkers if they freak out and kill someone, but that seems far to high a standard to hold cops to.
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Old 13th July 2017, 10:47 AM   #136
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Originally Posted by Cain View Post
Why should law-abiding citizens have to apply for a permit to carry a concealed weapon? Why should we have background checks on guns if criminals will still get guns? Hell, a background check means someone with bad intentions will obtain his firearm by financially supporting criminal characters; if we had no restrictions, then he'd purchase his gun from a taxpayer. It's almost as if the discussion should have to do with the extent of gun control, not the legitimacy of regulation. It's almost as if the discussion should be informed by statistics than than intuition.
That is why virginia is letting everyone allowed to own a gun carry concealed. A true dream of gun owners there. All that training and safety BS is really not needed.
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Old 13th July 2017, 01:57 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by AJM8125 View Post
Biased article is biased. I trust the source of that article about as much as I trust the NRA.



Except for that pesky California, which dog gone it, seems to clock in around 2,500 to 3,000 fatalities a year from firearms, no matter what.

You'd think somebody want to might to starting trying to get at the root of underlying issues that drive people toward murder and suicide rather than the method used.

Naw, way easier to draft anti-gun legislation and make it look like our leaders are actually doing something other than sucking up a paycheck.
No, California is low at 7.4 per 100,000. Louisiana is at 19. The majority are above California.
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Old 13th July 2017, 02:15 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by BStrong View Post
I know you don't want to hear it, but there are now and always have been a hell of a lot more men like me otj than the sorry excuses you believe are the majority.
I'm strongly inclined to think that most cops are good cops, but I also know that different police departments sometimes have very different cultures and that some tolerate a lot more corruption than others. Have you ever been in a situation where you witnessed misconduct on the part of another officer? If so, how did you handle it?
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Old 13th July 2017, 02:44 PM   #139
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Originally Posted by qayak View Post
No, California is low at 7.4 per 100,000. Louisiana is at 19. The majority are above California.
Perhaps in bizarro anti-gun land where high is low so the numbers look good.

3,000 dead ain't low, no matter how you skew it.
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Old 13th July 2017, 08:32 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
But then, you'd say "230 people died after these swimming pools were installed, compared to 189 in the same amount of time prior to their installation." not "only 189 people would've died if these pools weren't there!". You just can't know the latter.
No, you can't know the latter but the previous data are a first approximation that may need adjusting. The point is while we can't know alternative futures there are valid methods to make reasonable forecasts. It's done with the weather, stock markets, quarterly earnings forecasts, ticket sales, etc., etc. There's no reason it can't be done for guns.
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Old 13th July 2017, 08:35 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Funny, you never asked for a citation from Mark F. Your request for citation is dishonest. I might still dig it up later, but it's clear that you're trying to apply a hypocritical standard of evidence.
No, the only thing that is clear is that you didn't supply a citation. How I interacted with Mark F. is entirely irrelevant to my request of you. Which is even more pertinent since there was nothing in his last post to ask a citation for.

C'mon. Zig, you slip is showing.

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Old 13th July 2017, 08:46 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
No, it doesn't mean that at all. Rather, it means that observational studies without a control group often can't determine the causation behind a correlation. This isn't new, everybody should already know that. But people keep forgetting it whenever it's convenient to.
Does that group include yourself?
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Old 13th July 2017, 08:54 PM   #143
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Originally Posted by AJM8125 View Post
Hi there -

Ordinary Joe who has received death threats. What makes Bloomberg's life more important than mine?
Nothing. Of course. But I'll bet you'd agree that he gets more credible threats against his life than you do. Sufficient in number, in fact, to justify additional cautionary measures. That's all. I don't think those precautionary measures justify calling Bloomberg a hypocrite,

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Old 13th July 2017, 10:05 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
No, you can't know the latter but the previous data are a first approximation that may need adjusting. The point is while we can't know alternative futures there are valid methods to make reasonable forecasts. It's done with the weather, stock markets, quarterly earnings forecasts, ticket sales, etc., etc. There's no reason it can't be done for guns.
The problem is that this forecast falls down when confronted with data:

They say (quoting Arth's OP):
"because more guns in public is supposed to reduce crimes, then we should expect states to see less crime as "Shall Issue" laws kick in.

The Stanford team found precisely the opposite: "Ten years after the adoption of RTC laws," they write, "violent crime is estimated to be 13-15 percent higher than it would have been without the RTC law."


But here's the inconvenient truth that sinks them:

"People with concealed carry licenses are:
5.7 times less likely to be arrested for violent offenses than the general public
13.5 times less likely to be arrested for non-violent offenses than the general public"

"A different study concludes that the four year violent crime arrest rate for CCW holders is 128 per 100,000. For the general population, it is 710 per 100,000. In other words, CCW holders are 5.5 times less likely to commit a violent crime"


Given that, in states with widespread CC it's typically 5% to 10% of the adult population who have permits (http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/...ted-States.pdf) we can see that CCW holders are responsible for somewhere in the range of 1% or 2% of violent crimes (1/5th the rate x 5% or 10% of population)... so how can they be responsible for a 13-15% raise? It's nonsensical...
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Old 14th July 2017, 01:30 AM   #145
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
That is why virginia is letting everyone allowed to own a gun carry concealed. A true dream of gun owners there. All that training and safety BS is really not needed.
Prediction: Virginia is going to be the safest state in the union.
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Old 14th July 2017, 01:51 AM   #146
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Originally Posted by Cain View Post
Prediction: Virginia is going to be the safest state in the union.

It can go from 'I thought he had a gun' to 'This is Virginia, he totally could have had a gun concealed somewhere'
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Old 14th July 2017, 03:00 AM   #147
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
The problem is that this forecast falls down when confronted with data:

They say (quoting Arth's OP):
"because more guns in public is supposed to reduce crimes, then we should expect states to see less crime as "Shall Issue" laws kick in.

The Stanford team found precisely the opposite: "Ten years after the adoption of RTC laws," they write, "violent crime is estimated to be 13-15 percent higher than it would have been without the RTC law."


But here's the inconvenient truth that sinks them:

"People with concealed carry licenses are:
5.7 times less likely to be arrested for violent offenses than the general public
13.5 times less likely to be arrested for non-violent offenses than the general public"

"A different study concludes that the four year violent crime arrest rate for CCW holders is 128 per 100,000. For the general population, it is 710 per 100,000. In other words, CCW holders are 5.5 times less likely to commit a violent crime"


Given that, in states with widespread CC it's typically 5% to 10% of the adult population who have permits (http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/...ted-States.pdf) we can see that CCW holders are responsible for somewhere in the range of 1% or 2% of violent crimes (1/5th the rate x 5% or 10% of population)... so how can they be responsible for a 13-15% raise? It's nonsensical...
But why aren't all these guns and CCW permits reducing crime, like the gun rights lobby say they should? The study in the OP made a fair prediction based on the claim, and found it did not stand up.

Unfortunately, whenever a study makes a finding the gun lobby doesn't like, the data is chopped and crunched in so many ways no none can see what it says any more. And the massacres continue, and Americans keep dying.
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Old 14th July 2017, 06:49 AM   #148
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
No, the only thing that is clear is that you didn't supply a citation. How I interacted with Mark F. is entirely irrelevant to my request of you. Which is even more pertinent since there was nothing in his last post to ask a citation for.

C'mon. Zig, you slip is showing.
To be fair I never cited anything.
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Old 14th July 2017, 06:51 AM   #149
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Originally Posted by AJM8125 View Post
3,000 dead ain't low, no matter how you skew it.
Depends on the population you're talking about. 3000 in a population of 20,000 is a lot. 3000 in a population of 2 billion is tiny.
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Old 14th July 2017, 06:53 AM   #150
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
No, you can't know the latter but the previous data are a first approximation that may need adjusting. The point is while we can't know alternative futures there are valid methods to make reasonable forecasts. It's done with the weather, stock markets, quarterly earnings forecasts, ticket sales, etc., etc. There's no reason it can't be done for guns.
I don't think we're actually disagreeing, here.
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Old 14th July 2017, 09:26 AM   #151
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
I already know how this is going to end, but...

The Good Guy with a Gun Theory, Debunked
Did Donohue's statistical modeling factor in historical abortion rates by state in his calculations?
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Old 14th July 2017, 11:19 AM   #152
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Nothing. Of course. But I'll bet you'd agree that he gets more credible threats against his life than you do. Sufficient in number, in fact, to justify additional cautionary measures. That's all. I don't think those precautionary measures justify calling Bloomberg a hypocrite,
Except statistically, the crime victimization rate of former mayors of major metros is far lass than the criminal victimization rate of just about anyone else and it for sure isn't because the disparity in numbers between the mayors and the genpop.

The best security in the world is status and power. Bloomberg has all of it.
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Old 14th July 2017, 06:05 PM   #153
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Nothing. Of course. But I'll bet you'd agree that he gets more credible threats against his life than you do. Sufficient in number, in fact, to justify additional cautionary measures.
I'm sure he does too. But that doesn't lessen the severity of the threats to my family and I. They are sufficient in number, in fact, to justify additional cautionary measures.

Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
That's all. I don't think those precautionary measures justify calling Bloomberg a hypocrite,
It is, when he's actively working to deny those precautionary measures he justifies for himself to us Ordinary Joes.
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Old 14th July 2017, 08:00 PM   #154
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Why exclude law enforcement?
The police deliberately doesn't keep track of shootings, which strongly suggests that we wouldn't like the data if it was available.

Also, what about someone accidentally killing a bad guy?

To quote a famous policemen:
I a
I think that the general population of law enforcement should not have guns.
It should be like the UK where special forces only have them.
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Old 14th July 2017, 08:08 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by AJM8125 View Post
It is, when he's actively working to deny those precautionary measures he justifies for himself to us Ordinary Joes.
The simple fact is that if you Ordinary Joes didn't have guns he wouldn't need all those precautionary measures and neither would you.
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Old 15th July 2017, 09:33 AM   #156
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Originally Posted by qayak View Post
MY BIASED OPINION The simple fact [Notation added by AJM8125: Ooooh ooooh! See what I did? I'll explain; you see, qayak is highly critical of firearm policies in the USA and I added the part in RED to indicate that particular bias, then I highlighted the part I struck which he originally wrote but I wished to change for effect.] is that if you Ordinary Joes didn't have guns he wouldn't need all those precautionary measures and neither would you[Notation added AJM8125: This part left unaltered, meaning it is as originally written by qayak.] ,SO THE HYPOCRISY IS JUSTIFIED.[Notation added by AJM8125: I added another part in RED which qayak did not say but I wished to add to indicate the hypocrisy of a politician and anti-gun activist who I personally dislike.


Fixed That For You.
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Old 15th July 2017, 09:43 AM   #157
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Originally Posted by qayak View Post
The simple fact is that if you Ordinary Joes didn't have guns he wouldn't need all those precautionary measures and neither would you.
You make it sound like nobody would have gun if it's forbidden.
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Old 15th July 2017, 12:23 PM   #158
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
You make it sound like nobody would have gun if it's forbidden.
No, no. Criminals would have guns which makes them easy to identify. Anybody walking the street with a gun is a bad guy. They are arrested, their guns are confiscated , and they go through a legal process that is expensive for them and almost always ends in a prison sentence. It's work in many countries where citizens had an equal love affair with guns.

In Canada it is easy to tell a law abiding citizen from a criminal when it comes to gun ownership. A law abiding citizen is on their way to, or returning from, a destination where it is legal to use firearms. A criminal has a gun anywhere else.

Or it could be that Americans are really as dumb as the stereotype suggests and just can't be taught gun safety.
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Old 16th July 2017, 01:48 AM   #159
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Originally Posted by Giz View Post
But here's the inconvenient truth that sinks them:

"People with concealed carry licenses are:
5.7 times less likely to be arrested for violent offenses than the general public
13.5 times less likely to be arrested for non-violent offenses than the general public"
That highlighted word makes mince meat of your point. How many perps of violent crime actually get arrested? All you data shows is that CCW holders are careful not to be arrested.

Ok, ok, that's not fair. But it is fair to point out that arrest records do not reflect actual crime rates.

Originally Posted by Giz View Post
"A different study concludes that the four year violent crime arrest rate for CCW holders is 128 per 100,000. For the general population, it is 710 per 100,000. In other words, CCW holders are 5.5 times less likely to commit a violent crime"
My bold. You see the problem. One cannot equate arrest rates with crime rates. Period.


Originally Posted by Giz View Post
Given that, in states with widespread CC it's typically 5% to 10% of the adult population who have permits (http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content/...ted-States.pdf) we can see that CCW holders are responsible for somewhere in the range of 1% or 2% of violent crimes (1/5th the rate x 5% or 10% of population)... so how can they be responsible for a 13-15% raise? It's nonsensical...
For the reason cited above. Your equating crime rate with arrest rate is fallacious.
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Old 16th July 2017, 01:55 AM   #160
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Originally Posted by AJM8125 View Post
I'm sure he does too. But that doesn't lessen the severity of the threats to my family and I.
Agreed.

Originally Posted by AJM8125 View Post
They are sufficient in number, in fact, to justify additional cautionary measures.
What is "sufficient"? One threat? 18 threats? And how are we to measure "credible"?

As an aside, are you stating that you are sufficiently well known that you receive a "sufficient" number of "credible" threats to you and your family that justifies armed protection? Cecile, is that you?
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