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Old 27th November 2018, 10:12 AM   #1561
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Originally Posted by Molinaro View Post
The Democrats have so far picked up +38 seats in the House. There are just two left still being counted. Democrats now have the lead in both.

I seem to recall posts in the first few days after the election by Republican supporters saying words to the effect that they didn't know why Democrats were so happy. They didn't even get the +40 Blue Wave that so many were predicting.
Oh, our liberal tears....
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Old 27th November 2018, 10:38 AM   #1562
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Originally Posted by kookbreaker View Post
Oh, our liberal tears....
See, that's the odd thing. You don't have to make confident predictions. When you do, you just might be wrong, and then you skulk off for a while to avoid any remonstrations.

I totally don't get it. Maybe Slings would've turned out right, but maybe not. Turns out not. But he never had to pretend to know what he didn't, that is, the outcome of the midterms.

(We see similar behavior in the bitcoin thread, on both sides. )
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Old 27th November 2018, 11:24 AM   #1563
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CNN is reporting that the Dems picked up another seat in New Mexico, bringing the total seats gained to 39.

Xochitl Torres Small beat Republican Yvette Herrell after Harrell declared victory on election night.
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Old 27th November 2018, 11:26 AM   #1564
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Originally Posted by bonzombiekitty View Post
CNN is reporting that the Dems picked up another seat in New Mexico, bringing the total seats gained to 39.

Xochitl Torres Small beat Republican Yvette Herrell after Harrell declared victory on election night.
Trump did well for the Dems in 2018, but I doubt he will be able to repeat the performance in 2020.
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Old 27th November 2018, 04:49 PM   #1565
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I'm hearing more about these interesting "centrists":

Quote:
Before saying that its opposition to Nancy Pelosi’s House speaker campaign had nothing to do with her record, the nonpartisan group No Labels was exploring a primary challenge to her back home in San Francisco.

And she wasn’t the only Democrat the centrist nonprofit wanted to go after.

No Labels bills itself as “a movement for the tens of millions of Americans who are fed up with the dysfunction and will no longer put up with a government that does not represent the interests of most Americans.” Among the group’s past co-chairs are the former Republican presidential candidate and current ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman and the former Democratic and independent Senator Joe Lieberman, who oversaw the presentation of No Labels’ “problem solver’s award” to Donald Trump during the 2016 Republican primaries.

The nonprofit’s super pac supports the Problem Solvers Caucus, which has 44 equally divided Democratic and Republican members in the House and purports to be working on real solutions to issues that divide Congress.

But over the past year, No Labels’ leaders considered primary challenges to at least three incumbent House Democrats—starting with Pelosi, in January 2017. They also discussed running a primary challenge to freshman Darren Soto, a Florida Democrat. He had been elected with No Labels’ support but had in early 2017 accepted a mostly honorific position as an assistant whip for the House Democrats.

Now Soto is one of the nine Democrats from the Problem Solvers Caucus who is among the holdouts in Pelosi’s bid to win another term as speaker. Those nine currently have considerable influence as she works to reach the number of votes she needs to be elected speaker. Soto and his fellow Democrats in the caucus announced last week that they would not support Pelosi unless she agreed to rule changes that they argue would “break the gridlock.” Pelosi is scheduled to meet with its members on Tuesday, though she preempted the conversation by having an aide put out a statement arguing that she’s already agreed to many of their proposals and gone further.

The Republican members of the Problem Solvers Caucus made no such demands on Paul Ryan before supporting him in his bid for speaker last year. Members of the Problem Solvers from both parties meet regularly and met with Trump at the White House last September. So far, they have not produced any workable legislative solution on any issue.
Linky.

They are a bipartisan group that only works against Democrats and doesn't actually solve any problems.
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Old 27th November 2018, 06:45 PM   #1566
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Originally Posted by Tsukasa Buddha View Post
I'm hearing more about these interesting "centrists":



Linky.

They are a bipartisan group that only works against Democrats and doesn't actually solve any problems.
The proposed rule changes that they were planning to make speaker support contingent on were announced back in June. https://www.rollcall.com/news/politi...-rules-changes
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Old 28th November 2018, 06:40 AM   #1567
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GOP's Chrissy Hyde=Smith has won over Democratic challenger Mike Epsy in a run-off election in Mississippi, officially ending the last race of the 2018 mid-term.

The final "scores" as it where:

The Democrats gained 40 seats and the majority in the House.
The GOP gained 2 seats and strengthened their majority in the Senate.
Democrats got a net gain of 13 Governorships.
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Old 28th November 2018, 07:55 AM   #1568
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
GOP's Chrissy Hyde=Smith has won over Democratic challenger Mike Epsy in a run-off election in Mississippi, officially ending the last race of the 2018 mid-term.

The final "scores" as it where:

The Democrats gained 40 seats and the majority in the House.
The GOP gained 2 seats and strengthened their majority in the Senate.
Democrats got a net gain of 13 Governorships.
A "win" for Trump
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Old 28th November 2018, 07:55 AM   #1569
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
GOP's Chrissy Hyde=Smith has won over Democratic challenger Mike Epsy in a run-off election in Mississippi, officially ending the last race of the 2018 mid-term.

The final "scores" as it where:

The Democrats gained 40 seats and the majority in the House.
The GOP gained 2 seats and strengthened their majority in the Senate.
Democrats got a net gain of 13 Governorships.
So, massive win for Trump and massive losses for the Democrats.
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Old 28th November 2018, 08:11 AM   #1570
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Blue Dribble...
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Old 28th November 2018, 09:12 AM   #1571
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
GOP's Chrissy Hyde=Smith has won over Democratic challenger Mike Epsy in a run-off election in Mississippi, officially ending the last race of the 2018 mid-term.

The final "scores" as it where:

The Democrats gained 40 seats and the majority in the House.
The GOP gained 2 seats and strengthened their majority in the Senate.
Democrats got a net gain of 13 Governorships.
Before the election many of us were curious as to how close the polling/predicting might turn out to be. I was following 538 due to them being one of the most accurate predictors of the 2016 election (538 was off in 2016, but not as much as most others).

They were pretty close this time around.

Background: 538 uses three different models that tend to put out slightly different results. They show their results as probabilities, their "predictions" are the results they show as being the most probable.

So for the House, they showed the most probable results as being that the Dems would pick up 38, 39, or 36 seats (lite, classic, deluxe probability models), with an 85% probability that the Dems would pick up enough seats to gain control of the house. So the Dems in the house did better than what 538 considered to be most probable, but it was still pretty close.

In the Senate, 538 showed the most probable outlooks as the Republicans picking up 0.7, 0.5, and 0.5 seats - somewhat problematic in that there is no such thing as half a Senate seat. At any rate, the GOP pick up of two seats outperformed 538's most likely probability model by one or one and a half seats. 538 gave the Republican party an 82% chance of retaining control of the Senate. Smaller sample size, for whatever that is worth.

538 Predicted that among governorships, the Dems would most likely end up with 24 to 25 governorships, depending on the model. That would leave about 199 million people living in States with Dem governors, and 130 million in states with Republican governors. The results there were 27 states with Republican governors and 23 with Democratic governors. So the Republicans outperformed and the Dems under-performed relative to 538's most like forecast, with 538 being off by one or two states depending on the model.

So the polling was imperfect as always, but still fairly close. Certainly accurate as far as the overall trend of Dem's flipping Republican held seats.

Last edited by crescent; 28th November 2018 at 09:18 AM.
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Old 28th November 2018, 09:14 AM   #1572
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cutting piece in The New Yorker

Cindy Hyde-Smith Says She Never Lost Faith in Mississippi’s Racists

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/NJJLN
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Old 28th November 2018, 04:16 PM   #1573
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You really expect anything better from Mississippi?
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Old 28th November 2018, 05:56 PM   #1574
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
cutting piece in The New Yorker

Cindy Hyde-Smith Says She Never Lost Faith in Mississippi’s Racists

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/NJJLN
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
You really expect anything better from Mississippi?
Satire warning....
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Old 28th November 2018, 06:26 PM   #1575
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Satire warning....
Borowitz. New Yorker's resident "Onion" writer.
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Old 28th November 2018, 08:11 PM   #1576
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
cutting piece in The New Yorker

Cindy Hyde-Smith Says She Never Lost Faith in Mississippi’s Racists

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/NJJLN
That cannot be true. It reads like an Onion article.

Edit: Good. it was Satire.
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Last edited by Shalamar; 28th November 2018 at 08:12 PM. Reason: edit. Was Satire.
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Old 28th November 2018, 08:18 PM   #1577
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Before the election many of us were curious as to how close the polling/predicting might turn out to be. I was following 538 due to them being one of the most accurate predictors of the 2016 election (538 was off in 2016, but not as much as most others).

They were pretty close this time around.

Background: 538 uses three different models that tend to put out slightly different results. They show their results as probabilities, their "predictions" are the results they show as being the most probable.

So for the House, they showed the most probable results as being that the Dems would pick up 38, 39, or 36 seats (lite, classic, deluxe probability models), with an 85% probability that the Dems would pick up enough seats to gain control of the house. So the Dems in the house did better than what 538 considered to be most probable, but it was still pretty close.

In the Senate, 538 showed the most probable outlooks as the Republicans picking up 0.7, 0.5, and 0.5 seats - somewhat problematic in that there is no such thing as half a Senate seat. At any rate, the GOP pick up of two seats outperformed 538's most likely probability model by one or one and a half seats. 538 gave the Republican party an 82% chance of retaining control of the Senate. Smaller sample size, for whatever that is worth.

538 Predicted that among governorships, the Dems would most likely end up with 24 to 25 governorships, depending on the model. That would leave about 199 million people living in States with Dem governors, and 130 million in states with Republican governors. The results there were 27 states with Republican governors and 23 with Democratic governors. So the Republicans outperformed and the Dems under-performed relative to 538's most like forecast, with 538 being off by one or two states depending on the model.

So the polling was imperfect as always, but still fairly close. Certainly accurate as far as the overall trend of Dem's flipping Republican held seats.

Even more telling than the victories the Dems managed is how narrow the losses were. Races which should have been walk-aways for the GOP were neck-and-neck. All across the 'red' states.
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Old 28th November 2018, 10:44 PM   #1578
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Before the election many of us were curious as to how close the polling/predicting might turn out to be. I was following 538 due to them being one of the most accurate predictors of the 2016 election (538 was off in 2016, but not as much as most others).

They were pretty close this time around.

Background: 538 uses three different models that tend to put out slightly different results. They show their results as probabilities, their "predictions" are the results they show as being the most probable.

So for the House, they showed the most probable results as being that the Dems would pick up 38, 39, or 36 seats (lite, classic, deluxe probability models), with an 85% probability that the Dems would pick up enough seats to gain control of the house. So the Dems in the house did better than what 538 considered to be most probable, but it was still pretty close.

In the Senate, 538 showed the most probable outlooks as the Republicans picking up 0.7, 0.5, and 0.5 seats - somewhat problematic in that there is no such thing as half a Senate seat. At any rate, the GOP pick up of two seats outperformed 538's most likely probability model by one or one and a half seats. 538 gave the Republican party an 82% chance of retaining control of the Senate. Smaller sample size, for whatever that is worth.

538 Predicted that among governorships, the Dems would most likely end up with 24 to 25 governorships, depending on the model. That would leave about 199 million people living in States with Dem governors, and 130 million in states with Republican governors. The results there were 27 states with Republican governors and 23 with Democratic governors. So the Republicans outperformed and the Dems under-performed relative to 538's most like forecast, with 538 being off by one or two states depending on the model.

So the polling was imperfect as always, but still fairly close. Certainly accurate as far as the overall trend of Dem's flipping Republican held seats.
Reflecting on this from a different angle (and who ISN'T looking for entrails to help figure out 2020) and my own idiosyncratic viewpoint....

> The population of the country does come into play. With about 60% of the country in states with New Blue governors, it's an indicator. Not conclusive but an indicator.
> The House vote count is just as telling, if not more so. Congressional Districts largely parallel the EC districts. If all the Republicans in Iowa could hold was the Nunes/King dark red northwest quadrant, they've got some problems.
> Combine the two (millions more Dem votes for House and Governorships) and slightly more Dem votes for Senate, and Donald is going to have to invent 15 to 20 million illegal voters to justify his loss in 2020.

The maps of the country showing governorships and House seats have gone patchwork. You can see a pattern, still, but a lot of Flyover States don't listen to Jessie Watters evidently, as they voted for Dems. That endless red swath is getting broken up. You see a blue or bluing trail across from the West Coast to the Texas border. You see a goodly amount of farm/agrarian areas going to Dems.

If we believe, along with our president, that this is off-year and the bad performance is because he wasn't on the ballot, try a slightly different outlook. This many (record numbers) turned out in an off-year when the number one issue in exit polls was Trump. How many more will turn out in 2020?

The drip-drip-drip torture is getting to the American public, I think. One unhinged tweet a week might be hand-waved away.... if the yutz was doing something else for them. But his trade policies are causing them jobs, his tax cut has all been frittered away, and his rampant bigotry gets more unpalatable every day.

Dem governors cannot win out on everything against GOP state legislatures. But they can veto onerous attempts at jerry-rigging election days. When one of those not-bigoted-at-all state legislators proposes to extend voting hours in Muslim/Jewish neighborhood by opening a new polling station at Pistol Pete's Pork Palace on Route Seven by the Safeway, he can at least block it.


Oh, and the +2 in the Senate? It's really a minus one. The Dem Most Likely to Vote With the Prez caucus is now shy three members. The net gain for the GOP is meaningless, other than the fact that it makes legislation House-Proof. They were expected to barely hold the Senate and they did.
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Old 28th November 2018, 10:55 PM   #1579
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Originally Posted by Shalamar View Post
That cannot be true. It reads like an Onion article.

Edit: Good. it was Satire.

Yes, that was why I used the term, "cutting" rather than shocking.



I associate The New Yorker with famous wits like James Thurber and Dorothy Parker.
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Old 29th November 2018, 08:21 AM   #1580
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Even more telling than the victories the Dems managed is how narrow the losses were. Races which should have been walk-aways for the GOP were neck-and-neck. All across the 'red' states.
Indeed. Locally, the Beto/Cruz race should not have required a presidential visit to pull it out in the end.

And an openly gay woman was only 10 points off taking a seat that has always been very conservative. I never considered that she had a real chance and seeing the actual numbers was a bit shocking. Not close, but far closer than I would have expected, and far closer than the GOP can feel good about.
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Old 29th November 2018, 08:30 AM   #1581
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It's simple, the Dems took the suburbs. Cities overwhelmingly vote Democrat, Rural areas overwhelmingly vote Republican. As the American population becomes more urbanized this was inevitable.

That's why, despite everything else about police, the Democrats are going to win on a long enough timeline.
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Old 29th November 2018, 08:37 AM   #1582
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Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
Borowitz. New Yorker's resident "Onion" writer.
He wishes.
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Old 29th November 2018, 12:59 PM   #1583
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A little more bad news for Trump: Not only did the GOP lose a senate seat in Arizona, there is a leaked memo by the republican party that suggests that much of the blame for the loss resides with Trump.

From: https://www.abc15.com/news/state/ari...ys-senate-loss
The memo, obtained by the Washington Post , lists a number of factors as contributing to McSally's loss, including ad spending, a brutal primary, name recognition and President Trump's popularity in Arizona... "A certain segment of AZ Republicans was [sic] outright hostile to President Trump, and was against the Kavanaugh appointment."...

It wasn't the only reason given in the memo (it also suggested things like a crowded primary and financial problems harmed the Republican senate campaign. Still, that some republicans recognize the problem of tying themselves to President Stubby McBonespurs has got to be a good sign.
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Old 29th November 2018, 01:16 PM   #1584
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
A little more bad news for Trump: Not only did the GOP lose a senate seat in Arizona, there is a leaked memo by the republican party that suggests that much of the blame for the loss resides with Trump.

From: https://www.abc15.com/news/state/ari...ys-senate-loss
The memo, obtained by the Washington Post , lists a number of factors as contributing to McSally's loss, including ad spending, a brutal primary, name recognition and President Trump's popularity in Arizona... "A certain segment of AZ Republicans was [sic] outright hostile to President Trump, and was against the Kavanaugh appointment."...

It wasn't the only reason given in the memo (it also suggested things like a crowded primary and financial problems harmed the Republican senate campaign. Still, that some republicans recognize the problem of tying themselves to President Stubby McBonespurs has got to be a good sign.
You mean women?
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Old 29th November 2018, 01:52 PM   #1585
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
It's simple, the Dems took the suburbs. Cities overwhelmingly vote Democrat, Rural areas overwhelmingly vote Republican. As the American population becomes more urbanized this was inevitable.

That's why, despite everything else about police, the Democrats are going to win on a long enough timeline.
This is why most political analysts say that Trump managed to tear down the red wall the GOP had built around the house. It was based on cutting purple suburbs off from the urban areas in redistricting, and teaming them with solidly red rural districts. When, this year, ths purple subrubs turned blue disaster ensued.
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Old 29th November 2018, 03:33 PM   #1586
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Even though they new House hasn't taken power yet, it looks we're getting an early look at how capitulating Democrats will be with the Trump's latest border wall gambit.

Quote:
Congressional Democrats said Thursday they’re prepared to reject a new GOP plan to get President Trump the money he’s demanding for his border wall — escalating the chances of a partial government shutdown next week.
Linky.

In the Senate Schumer has been acting a bit too cooperative, according to liberals.
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Old 30th November 2018, 11:27 AM   #1587
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
He wishes.
?

Borowitz is consistently hilarious. Plus, he appears in one of the most prestigious literary magazines in history. Put another way, The Onion wishes.
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Old 30th November 2018, 11:29 AM   #1588
jimbob
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
?

Borowitz is consistently hilarious. Plus, he appears in one of the most prestigious literary magazines in history. Put another way, The Onion wishes.
exactly
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Old 30th November 2018, 11:56 AM   #1589
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
Quote:
"A certain segment of AZ Republicans was [sic] outright hostile to President Trump, and was against the Kavanaugh appointment."...
You mean women?
We prefer the more politically correct term: Testicularly-challenged Americans.
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Old 30th November 2018, 12:46 PM   #1590
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Paul Ryan says history will view the departing House of Representatives very kindly.
I think history's judgement will be a lot more like Oliver Cromwell's opinion when dismissing the Rump Parliament:

Quote:
t is high time for me to put an end to your sitting in this place,

which you have dishonored by your contempt of all virtue, and defiled by your

practice of every vice.

Ye are a factious crew, and enemies to all good government.

Ye are a pack of mercenary wretches, and would like Esau sell your country for a mess

of pottage, and like Judas betray your God for a few pieces of money.

Is there a single virtue now remaining amongst you? Is there one vice you do not

possess?

Ye have no more religion than my horse. Gold is your God. Which of you have not

bartered your conscience for bribes? Is there a man amongst you that has the least

care for the good of the Commonwealth?

Ye sordid prostitutes have you not defiled this sacred place, and turned the Lord's

temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices?

Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation. You were deputed here by the

people to get grievances redressed, are yourselves become the greatest grievance.

Your country therefore calls upon me to cleanse this Augean stable, by putting a

final period to your iniquitous proceedings in this House; and which by God's help,

and the strength he has given me, I am now come to do.

I command ye therefore, upon the peril of your lives, to depart immediately out of

this place.

Go, get you out! Make haste! Ye venal slaves be gone! So! Take away that shining

bauble there, and lock up the doors.

In the name of God, go!
No fan of the Lord Protector and I don't share his religious opinions, but so much of what he says applies to the departing congress.
"intolerably odious to the whole nation" is just classic.
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Last edited by dudalb; 30th November 2018 at 12:48 PM.
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Old 30th November 2018, 05:11 PM   #1591
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Just to indulge my inner grammarian.

"A certain segment of Arizona Republicans was [sic] outright hostile..."

That "was" is correct; the "segment" is singular.
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Old 30th November 2018, 07:39 PM   #1592
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Originally Posted by Lurch View Post
Just to indulge my inner grammarian.

"A certain segment of Arizona Republicans was [sic] outright hostile..."

That "was" is correct; the "segment" is singular.
Thank you! I was thinking the same thing
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Old 30th November 2018, 07:50 PM   #1593
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
This is why most political analysts say that Trump managed to tear down the red wall the GOP had built around the house. It was based on cutting purple suburbs off from the urban areas in redistricting, and teaming them with solidly red rural districts. When, this year, ths purple subrubs turned blue disaster ensued.
With more people moving to cities and leaving the rural areas, the population shift caused this odd situation. The rural districs go red with only 55% votes whereas the city or suburban districts go blue but with ”too many” votes. The areas will need to be redesigned as the rural areas go empty.
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Old 6th December 2018, 08:02 AM   #1594
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In this vivid nightmare that I'm apparently experiencing, an illegal voting scandal has finally been revealed. A scandal that doesn't involve illegal aliens. A scandal that doesn't involve IDs, fake or otherwise.

If this was a novel, the author would be laughed out of the publisher's lobby for plying such implausible nonsense.
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Old 6th December 2018, 11:42 AM   #1595
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
In this vivid nightmare that I'm apparently experiencing, an illegal voting scandal has finally been revealed. A scandal that doesn't involve illegal aliens. A scandal that doesn't involve IDs, fake or otherwise.

If this was a novel, the author would be laughed out of the publisher's lobby for plying such implausible nonsense.
THis is actually by far the more likely way to illegally mess with an election - hack the machines, toss out ballots, etc. So far most people who get caught trying to vote twice are Republican idiots who try to show how easy it is to vote multiple times.
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Old 6th December 2018, 12:10 PM   #1596
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
THis is actually by far the more likely way to illegally mess with an election - hack the machines, toss out ballots, etc. So far most people who get caught trying to vote twice are Republican idiots who try to show how easy it is to vote multiple times.
Which has always been one of my arguments against strict voter ID requirements. It's a solution looking for a problem. If people want to fraudulently effect the election results, they'll do it at some other level where there will be more bang for the buck. And those ways can't be prevented by voter ID.
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Old 6th December 2018, 12:12 PM   #1597
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
THis is actually by far the more likely way to illegally mess with an election - hack the machines, toss out ballots, etc. So far most people who get caught trying to vote twice are Republican idiots who try to show how easy it is to vote multiple times.
Indeed. That's not the part I think is implausible. It's the plot twists.
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Old 6th December 2018, 12:58 PM   #1598
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What is going on in Wisconsin is pretty omininous. When you throw democracy out the window to keep a hold on power, which is what the GOP Legilature is doing in it's attempt at a massive transfer of power from the Governon'r office to the legislature, it endangers democracy itself.
And that is a sign of a democracy in trouble;Political factions are willing to destroy the basics of democracy to hold onto power.
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Old 6th December 2018, 02:00 PM   #1599
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
What is going on in Wisconsin is pretty omininous. When you throw democracy out the window to keep a hold on power, which is what the GOP Legilature is doing in it's attempt at a massive transfer of power from the Governon'r office to the legislature, it endangers democracy itself.
And that is a sign of a democracy in trouble;Political factions are willing to destroy the basics of democracy to hold onto power.
Especially as the Democrats won 53% of the Wisconsin House vote, and only 36% of the seats. One can truly call the Wisconsin GOP the anti-democratic party.

I just hope that there is sufficient revlusion at such tactics to make them lose massively.

Nationwide, if Trump pushes the suburbs and small town America away from the Republicans, it could happen.

The current Republican party needs to suffer electoral oblivion and there needs to be a reasonable conservative party in its place.
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Old 6th December 2018, 02:02 PM   #1600
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Especially as the Democrats won 53% of the Wisconsin House vote, and only 36% of the seats. One can truly call the Wisconsin GOP the anti-democratic party.
I get the impression that they have conflated being legal with being democratic. The think that if they are not breaking any laws, they must still be working in the spirit of Democracy.

That's going to bite them in the butt.
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