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Old 6th December 2017, 02:20 PM   #961
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Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
I LOL'd.

DD really seems to have no clue. Nor does May. Her mishandling of the DUP is a fairly spectacular fail, given her government relies upon them.

The various claims are simply incoherent. The Irish border will remain open and the CTA will be maintained? So what is to stop any amount of illegals crossing said border into the UK? Nothing. And once they are in the UK, those illegals are a UK problem.

Ireland should set up and maintain border controls? Why? Those illegals are leaving EU jurisdiction. Off they go and good luck to them.

The UK wants to return those illegals to their port of entry? Sorry, that applies to EU members only of which the UK is not one. Go deal with that yourself, UK. Not our problem.

Basically, NI will become the premiere illegal immigrant hub.
And contraband heaven.
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Old 6th December 2017, 04:33 PM   #962
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
As I've explained over and over again in these threads we do know what goals we're trying to get out of the negotiations.

The problem is that the EU most likely won't let us have them. Their intent is to frustrate the process and drag it out for as long as they can: they'd like us to either give up and stay in the EU so we can continue to fund them, or "leave" in some half-baked manner so we're really still half-members of their club, still contributing funds to their organisation and unable to trade freely with the rest of the world.
Most of all, they want the process to be as difficult and punishing as possible - they want to use it as a warning to discourage any other member countries from leaving their club.

It's impossible to negotiate when the other side isn't prepared to negotiate in good faith - which is why I've consistently advocated walking away from the time-wasting farce that is jokingly referred to as "negotiations".
How come you know these goals but the Government doesn't and the most senior members of the Government haven't even got together yet to discuss what these may be?
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Old 6th December 2017, 05:42 PM   #963
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
How come you know these goals but the Government doesn't and the most senior members of the Government haven't even got together yet to discuss what these may be?
It's not the first time that ceptimus apparently confuses his/her own thoughts on the matter with those of Her Majesty's government. And to be fair to ceptimus, it seems that he/she has put more thought in the matter than the government.
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Old 6th December 2017, 06:29 PM   #964
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
And contraband heaven.
Indeed. The brexit crew seem to think that a few cameras at a half dozen major routes will fit all problems. Why do they think this? Beats seven shades out of me.
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Old 6th December 2017, 07:44 PM   #965
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
So, this is looking more likely at the moment. No trade negotiations means a hard Brexit, and a hard Brexit means a hard border. Perhaps the Irish, by their own actions, will get the thing they least want.
The reunification of Ireland? Oh wait, you said least.
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Old 6th December 2017, 09:35 PM   #966
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Meanwhile, the boys in South Armagh are digging up their rifles and semtex.

Good luck, Theresa May.
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Old 6th December 2017, 10:51 PM   #967
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Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
Indeed. The brexit crew seem to think that a few cameras at a half dozen major routes will fit all problems. Why do they think this? Beats seven shades out of me.
Even if they had a camera on every single road and track and were able to monitor the movement of agricultural and off-road vehicles across fields and whatnot they still have a huge number of issues.

Firstly they have a huge amount of data, but no information, about vehicle movements. They know which number plates have crossed the border but they don't know whether those plates are valid or why the border was being crossed. More importantly they don't have the first clue about what is inside each vehicle. Is it simply someone from the Czech Republic taking in the sights of Belfast during their Irish holiday or are they dropping off four illegal immigrants and a job-lot of contraband knedlíky ?

Secondly there are ways of moving across borders involving modes of transport which do not involve moving in front of a camera with a licence plate. There are trains and busses which operate between Dublin and Belfast. Unless the there are going to be immigration checks on the trains (like in 1970s spy movies) then there's no control over who comes in. Also bicycles, horses and feet have been invented any of those could be used to cross from Ireland to Northern Ireland and of course they could be used to cross far more stealthily should the need arise.

Thirdly, without a huge "intercept" force, how are TPTB actually going to enforce anything. Let's say through the miracle of technology that they manage to determine that a van crossing the border on the R132/Dublin Road is indeed a vehicle of interest. How are they going to stop that vehicle before it gets to Newry and the occupants and cargo are spirited away ?
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Old 6th December 2017, 11:05 PM   #968
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like I said, magic.
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Old 7th December 2017, 01:52 AM   #969
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You, and the other opponents, are the ones insisting that the goals are mutually incompatible while at the same time saying you don't know what the goals are.
That's because the UK government has, for reasons unbeknown to us, still not hashed out which are their primary goals and what are the secondary and even tertiary goals.

It's relatively simple... if the soft border with Ireland and frictionless trade with the EU is of primary importance then you will have to compromise on free movement and the ECJ. Of on the other hand your primary objective is to stop free movement and no ECJ, then you have to compromise on frictionless trade and the border with Ireland.

And that is what I mean when I say that we have no idea what the goals are, because the UK government still hasn't decided what it is that they want. It's still wanting to have its cake and eat it.

Quote:
The goals aren't mutually incompatible in the government's eyes. They want free trade, no tariffs, they want the supremacy of the ECJ to end, an end to free movement, and no hard border with Ireland. It's all perfectly clear no matter how hard you try to paint it otherwise.
It's clear that the UK government hasn't given it a lot of thought... that much is perfectly clear.
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Old 7th December 2017, 02:23 AM   #970
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
To continue with the analogy, you don't reveal your tactics when playing poker. You would be insane if you told everyone, 'I intend to bluff on the fifth and eleventh deals.'
Who's saying anything about revealing tactics?

They have just admitted they don't have any!
That's the whole point I was making!

They have gone into playing a game of poker without the faintest idea of what poker is, some of them thinking it's bridge, some thinking cribbage, and DD thinking it's snap.

And what they have revealed as what they want is simply mutually exclusive, see Irish Border.
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Old 7th December 2017, 02:42 AM   #971
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
How come you know these goals but the Government doesn't and the most senior members of the Government haven't even got together yet to discuss what these may be?
The Tories have published their goals with the 12 point plan;

https://www.conservatives.com/planforbrexit

https://www.conservatives.com/brexit

https://www.planforbritain.gov.uk/

News story on its publication on the 2nd Feb 2017.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38836906

It is a bit lacking in detail and it should have been first presented by the leave campaign years ago, so we would have had a better idea of what to expect. But I think it is wrong to suggest there are no goals.
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Old 7th December 2017, 02:45 AM   #972
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
That's because the UK government has, for reasons unbeknown to us, still not hashed out which are their primary goals and what are the secondary and even tertiary goals.......
I think the 12 point plan that has been out since February, at least counts as a list of primary goals.
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Old 7th December 2017, 02:52 AM   #973
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
The Tories have published their goals with the 12 point plan;

https://www.conservatives.com/planforbrexit

https://www.conservatives.com/brexit

https://www.planforbritain.gov.uk/

News story on its publication on the 2nd Feb 2017.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38836906

It is a bit lacking in detail and it should have been first presented by the leave campaign years ago, so we would have had a better idea of what to expect. But I think it is wrong to suggest there are no goals.
From that article: "Just 11 days after you vote, the EU will start the Brexit negotiations with Britain. ...."

I think that was slightly revised.

But fair enough you can have those as top line goals, being at heart an operations guy they would be useless to me to negotiate a contract without more detail, such as what parts are negotiable, what parts aren't and so on.
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Old 7th December 2017, 03:14 AM   #974
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I agree it is woefully inadequate. But did the leave side really expect to win? Even UKIP's detailed plan is dated 23rd June 2017. What we are getting is planning on the hop.

http://www.ukipdaily.com/wp-content/...rd_s_paper.pdf
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Old 7th December 2017, 03:28 AM   #975
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Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
The EU27 is playing poker. The UK is still standing at the games cupboard trying to figure out what game that might be.
NoCluedo™
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Old 7th December 2017, 09:08 AM   #976
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Schroedinger's Brexit suggests that the Brexit impact studies exist up until the point someone tries to actually look at them.
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Old 7th December 2017, 09:23 AM   #977
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Even if they had a camera on every single road and track and were able to monitor the movement of agricultural and off-road vehicles across fields and whatnot they still have a huge number of issues.

Firstly they have a huge amount of data, but no information, about vehicle movements. They know which number plates have crossed the border but they don't know whether those plates are valid or why the border was being crossed. More importantly they don't have the first clue about what is inside each vehicle. Is it simply someone from the Czech Republic taking in the sights of Belfast during their Irish holiday or are they dropping off four illegal immigrants and a job-lot of contraband knedlíky ?

Secondly there are ways of moving across borders involving modes of transport which do not involve moving in front of a camera with a licence plate. There are trains and busses which operate between Dublin and Belfast. Unless the there are going to be immigration checks on the trains (like in 1970s spy movies) then there's no control over who comes in. Also bicycles, horses and feet have been invented any of those could be used to cross from Ireland to Northern Ireland and of course they could be used to cross far more stealthily should the need arise.

Thirdly, without a huge "intercept" force, how are TPTB actually going to enforce anything. Let's say through the miracle of technology that they manage to determine that a van crossing the border on the R132/Dublin Road is indeed a vehicle of interest. How are they going to stop that vehicle before it gets to Newry and the occupants and cargo are spirited away ?
The reality is that there will be a system in theory, and enforcement will be variable.

Immigrants - if they're already in the Republic they will have passed Irish controls, UK controls will focus on employment and benefits, and there may well be enhanced "security checks" on the way to the rest of the UK.

Given IIRC the biggest problem with illegal immigrants is overstaying visas, not smuggling in the back of a lorry, then its not likely to be a huge problem.

Goods - currently there are no controls with goods available in different currencies and different VAT rates on either side of the border. If there are no tariffs, then the position is essentially unchanged, and what will be missing is official paperwork on imports and exports. If regulations are not identical then you have the issue of potentially illegal goods being sold across the border, but even then there is unlikely to be significant harm.

The main theoretical control will probably be via HMRC VAT inspections - checking whether legitimate businesses have correctly reported everything; biggest issue is likely to be abuse of not charging VAT on exports. Of course illegitimate businesses are probably already breaking the law already.

Given the NI economy is c2% of the UK, any revenue losses are probably bearable.
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Old 7th December 2017, 09:31 AM   #978
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
The reality is that there will be a system in theory, and enforcement will be variable.

Immigrants - if they're already in the Republic they will have passed Irish controls, UK controls will focus on employment and benefits, and there may well be enhanced "security checks" on the way to the rest of the UK.

Given IIRC the biggest problem with illegal immigrants is overstaying visas, not smuggling in the back of a lorry, then its not likely to be a huge problem.

Goods - currently there are no controls with goods available in different currencies and different VAT rates on either side of the border. If there are no tariffs, then the position is essentially unchanged, and what will be missing is official paperwork on imports and exports. If regulations are not identical then you have the issue of potentially illegal goods being sold across the border, but even then there is unlikely to be significant harm.

The main theoretical control will probably be via HMRC VAT inspections - checking whether legitimate businesses have correctly reported everything; biggest issue is likely to be abuse of not charging VAT on exports. Of course illegitimate businesses are probably already breaking the law already.

Given the NI economy is c2% of the UK, any revenue losses are probably bearable.
For there to be tariff free trade then surely we need to be inside the customs union.

If that's the case then the border is really easy but that's been completely torpedoed by the DUP and the Conservative Party.

If we're outside the customs union then AFIAK we will have to have some tariffs in place unless the EU folds completely and unconditionally and effectively allows the UK all the benefits of EU membership without any of the obligations - not something that seems likely.

It seems for the border to "work" we're back to magical thinking again.


edited to add.....

Also enhanced security between NI and the rest of the UK isn't going to go down well will unionists.

And if NI is a convenient way of getting goods illegally into the UK from the EU then that 2% is likely to grow (and the 2% probably ignores casual cross border trade like Mrs O'Miggins doing her shopping abroad).

Last edited by The Don; 7th December 2017 at 09:34 AM.
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Old 7th December 2017, 09:37 AM   #979
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
For there to be tariff free trade then surely we need to be inside the customs union.
Or have a deep and special relationship with a free trade agreement.

Quote:
It seems for the border to "work" we're back to magical thinking again.
Depends on your definition of 'work' - the UK, I suspect, will approach the border with a Nelsonian touch, but I'm not sure what the EU will accept.

Last edited by Aber; 7th December 2017 at 09:40 AM.
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Old 7th December 2017, 09:39 AM   #980
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
For there to be tariff free trade then surely we need to be inside the customs union.
Why? This is just EU dogma.
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Old 7th December 2017, 09:55 AM   #981
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Also enhanced security between NI and the rest of the UK isn't going to go down well will unionists.
Given that Aber was talkign about "employment and benefits," I would expect that what we could see are beefing up the requirements for employers/landlords (private and social) not to employ/rent to evil furriners. I wouldn't put it past the Tories to significantly increase the associated fine, thus forcing employers/landlords to invest in more sophisticated document-checking, etc. than they can currently carry out. This would, after all, put the expense on the employers/landlords, not the "taxpayer."

Of course, all that would happen is that the black economy - including the illicit rental market - would receive a huge boost.
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Old 7th December 2017, 09:55 AM   #982
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The CETA free trade agreement between the EU and Canada took quite a few years to hammer out. Negotiations started May 2009 and a provisional implementation started recently.
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Old 7th December 2017, 09:56 AM   #983
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Why? This is just EU dogma.
Or WTO rules.
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Old 7th December 2017, 10:00 AM   #984
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Why? This is just EU dogma.
Well, what do you propose then? What kind arrangement do you envisage that works like a customs union but isn't?
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Old 7th December 2017, 10:10 AM   #985
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It has been made very clear the UK is going to get a worse deal than being a member, which will include access to the Customs Union. There is no organisation that lets non members have better access/deals than the members.
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Old 7th December 2017, 10:18 AM   #986
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
The CETA free trade agreement between the EU and Canada took quite a few years to hammer out. Negotiations started May 2009 and a provisional implementation started recently.
The terribly slug-like negotiating procedures of the EU are one reason we're leaving. Of course those same slow procedures have so far prevented the EU from even starting the Brexit trade negotiations...
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Old 7th December 2017, 10:19 AM   #987
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Why? This is just EU dogma.
WTO says no.
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Old 7th December 2017, 10:24 AM   #988
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
There is no organisation that lets non members have better access/deals than the members.
This ought to be true of course, but nearly every bank, energy provider, media provider, internet server provider, etc., have better deals available for newcomers than they do for their loyal customers.

I'm not saying this has any relevance to the Brexit debate, but it's an interesting truth that your post prompted me to mention.
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Old 7th December 2017, 10:31 AM   #989
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Originally Posted by Amazer View Post
Well, what do you propose then? What kind arrangement do you envisage that works like a customs union but isn't?
The two parties just agree to have tariff free trade in both directions for their mutual benefit. No sort of 'union' need enter into it.

Now I know that EU dogma will prevent this from occurring between the EU and the UK after Brexit, but as a critical thinker you should ask why it's prevented, and dogma isn't a good enough answer.

I already gave the answer a few posts back. The EU wants to punish the UK and therefore deter any other member countries from thinking of leaving.
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Old 7th December 2017, 10:31 AM   #990
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
This ought to be true of course, but nearly every bank, energy provider, media provider, internet server provider, etc., have better deals available for newcomers than they do for their loyal customers.
Do they have even better deals for people who have stopped being customers altogether? The UK is not a "newcomer" to the EU. It is a leaver from the EU, looking to minimise the cost of departure.
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Old 7th December 2017, 10:36 AM   #991
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
Do they have even better deals for people who have stopped being customers altogether? The UK is not a "newcomer" to the EU. It is a leaver from the EU, looking to minimise the cost of departure.
Why are you quote mining my post when I made it quite clear that I didn't think this had any relevance to the Brexit issue?
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Old 7th December 2017, 11:00 AM   #992
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The two parties just agree to have tariff free trade in both directions for their mutual benefit. No sort of 'union' need enter into it.

Now I know that EU dogma will prevent this from occurring between the EU and the UK after Brexit, but as a critical thinker you should ask why it's prevented, and dogma isn't a good enough answer.

I already gave the answer a few posts back. The EU wants to punish the UK and therefore deter any other member countries from thinking of leaving.
A tariff free trade agreement does not solve the border issue with Ireland... especially not once the UK starts to diverge regulatory-wise from the EU. It also doesn't adress the free movement of people across the Irish border.
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Old 7th December 2017, 11:09 AM   #993
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There's no need to address the movement of people across the border because of the common travel area.

As regards the movement of goods across the border, the UK government says, in effect, "We don't care - we're prepared to turn a blind eye to it."

If the EU insist on having hard borders on their side, that's up to them - they will take the blame for erecting the hard border, and of course they'll have to pay for it.
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Old 7th December 2017, 11:10 AM   #994
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The terribly slug-like negotiating procedures of the EU are one reason we're leaving. Of course those same slow procedures have so far prevented the EU from even starting the Brexit trade negotiations...
Because the EU examines the details - unlike idiots like DD - and this is why the USA took a kicking when negotiating TTIP. Instead of it being a superpower that just tells anyone else what it wants, it had to negotiate because the EU is big enough to stand up to it and has seasoned negotiators whose goal is always a good deal.
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Old 7th December 2017, 11:19 AM   #995
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
There's no need to address the movement of people across the border because of the common travel area.

As regards the movement of goods across the border, the UK government says, in effect, "We don't care - we're prepared to turn a blind eye to it."

If the EU insist on having hard borders on their side, that's up to them - they will take the blame for erecting the hard border, and of course they'll have to pay for it.
The problem with the Common Travel Area is that Ireland is part of the wider EU, so there is a Venn diagram.

UK and Ireland: Common Travel Area
Ireland and EU : EU

With such a combination, there is effectively free movement of people between the EU and the UK via Ireland.
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Old 7th December 2017, 11:25 AM   #996
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
There's no need to address the movement of people across the border because of the common travel area.

As regards the movement of goods across the border, the UK government says, in effect, "We don't care - we're prepared to turn a blind eye to it."

If the EU insist on having hard borders on their side, that's up to them - they will take the blame for erecting the hard border, and of course they'll have to pay for it.
And you're surprised that the above answer would be rejected by the EU, a rule-based organisation if there ever was one?
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Old 7th December 2017, 11:34 AM   #997
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Or have a deep and special relationship with a free trade agreement.
NAFTA?

Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Depends on your definition of 'work' - the UK, I suspect, will approach the border with a Nelsonian touch, but I'm not sure what the EU will accept.
What do you mean with the highlighted, and does it involve Lady Hamilton?
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Old 7th December 2017, 12:14 PM   #998
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Quote:
As regards the movement of goods across the border, the UK government says, in effect, "We don't care - we're prepared to turn a blind eye to it."
'turns a blind eye'?

That would mean they let anything in unchallenged?
Why would any importer or exporter use any of the other ports or airports in the UK to ship goods to Europe when they can go unchallenged through Ireland?
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Old 7th December 2017, 12:20 PM   #999
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
'turns a blind eye'?

That would mean they let anything in unchallenged?
Why would any importer or exporter use any of the other ports or airports in the UK to ship goods to Europe when they can go unchallenged through Ireland?
Major importers wouldn't get away with it as there would be a paper trail showing where items originated.

Individuals and lone traders would get away with it unless they get caught - exactly what happens (and is legal) at the moment with different duty rates and tax rates (VAT) on either side of the border.
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Old 7th December 2017, 12:21 PM   #1000
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
This ought to be true of course, but nearly every bank, energy provider, media provider, internet server provider, etc., have better deals available for newcomers than they do for their loyal customers.

I'm not saying this has any relevance to the Brexit debate, but it's an interesting truth that your post prompted me to mention.
That is maybe the case for businesses attracting customers, but the EU is not a business and it is made up of members, not customers.
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