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Tags Russia-Ukraine relations , Ukraine incidents , Ukraine issues , vladimir putin

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Old 23rd March 2015, 08:32 PM   #361
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
He said "IF Denmark joins the missile defence shield THEN Danish (not Dutch) warships become targets for our nuclear missiles". This is completely expected, the missiles are targetted such as to take down the defence shield. It's not essentially different from that a country that builds a new SAM site will have that site targetted in case of war.
ahhhh, the beautiful language of Russian diplomacy:

We will target you with nukes!

Lol!
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Old 23rd March 2015, 08:46 PM   #362
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Originally Posted by 16.5 View Post
ahhhh, the beautiful language of Russian diplomacy:

We will target you with nukes!

Lol!
Maybe you should try reading what the Russian guy actually said then you'll see it's not a threat but urging the Danish government not to join the defence shield by pointing out the consequences. Consequences which are dictated by military strategy, if you put a shield to hide your guns behind then you get the other guy's shield-breaking guns aimed at you.
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Old 24th March 2015, 12:48 AM   #363
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So Russia tries to threaten Denmark with nuclear weapons and we have posters excusing it?
What other country does this?
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Old 24th March 2015, 02:03 AM   #364
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
I will look closely at that information as well, because the actual pct of Crimeans who favored Russian integration is interesting. I had assumed it was a strong majority, but smaller than what the Kremlin claimed.
If it were a strong majority, Russia wouldn't need to resort to repression after the annexation. Yes, it's that simple.

If they had 80%+ support from the onset, and a massive improvement in economy from the annexation - as alledged by Kremlin propaganda machine - there would be nothing that would require thug squads patrolling for dissidents, nor there would be any need to watch over for pro-Ukrainian activities, or arresting someone reciting poetry to 20 people with Ukrainian flag. With those levels of support not even a military victory and occupation could return Crimea to Ukraine, and repression would be entirely counter-productive. Putler isn't particularily intelligent, but he isn't THAT dumb.

With 15-20% support however, repression becomes necessary if he is to keep the peninsula. Massive anti-Putin demosntrations in Simferopol would be incredibly damaging on all levels. Crimeans already saw their standard of living revert to what it was under Ukraine and it is bound to fall further. The same story happened in South Osssetia, it's nothing new or unexpected.

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Old 24th March 2015, 05:19 AM   #365
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
What other country does this?
Every country with nuclear missiles does this, they all have them pre-targetted at the strategic locations of their nuclear adversaries. This is standard, and is done to minimize the time between decision and launch in the event of nuclear war where there may only be minutes to make that decision.

These strategic locations include the elements that make up an ABM installation, this is as true for the NATO shield as it is for the smaller Russian Moscow shield. It is silly to put up an ABM installation and then complain that it will get targetted.
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Old 24th March 2015, 07:22 AM   #366
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
So Russia tries to threaten Denmark with nuclear weapons and we have posters excusing it?
What other country does this?
Oh they're not 'threatening' them, they're just 'pointing out the consequences'. Consequences of violence. With nuclear weapons. As a way to deter the actions.

Wait, that's what 'threaten' means! I just got it!

Now, sometimes threats are valid. When the threat is expressed out loud, to the group threatened, and involves nukes, it is at least a diplomatic failing.
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Old 24th March 2015, 07:43 AM   #367
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Every country with nuclear missiles does this, they all have them pre-targetted at the strategic locations of their nuclear adversaries. This is standard, and is done to minimize the time between decision and launch in the event of nuclear war where there may only be minutes to make that decision.

These strategic locations include the elements that make up an ABM installation, this is as true for the NATO shield as it is for the smaller Russian Moscow shield. It is silly to put up an ABM installation and then complain that it will get targetted.
This announcement was an attempt to intimidate Denmark into not joining the shield project. It's a veiled threat. As a member of NATO, Danish force is already considered eligible for nuclear targeting by Russia.
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Old 24th March 2015, 08:05 AM   #368
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At the moment it looks like K. gets his will:

Originally Posted by offguardian
The Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) of Ukraine registered a draft law offering parliamentarians to cancel the amendments that led to the conflict between the central government in Kiev and the governor of Dnepropetrovsk region Igor Kolomoisky, Vzglyad reports. [...]

The draft document is published on the Rada’s site and was submitted by Vitaly Barvinenko, a deputy from the “Revival” faction. The MP offered to cancel the amendment, which reduces the quorum for a decision on the distribution of profits and dividends in joint-stock companies from 60% + 1 share to 50% + 1 share.

The explanatory memorandum to the bill Barvinenko pointed out that the procedure of the bill on March 19 was illegal and violated the rules of the Ukrainian Parliament [...]

Why? Maybe because Kolomoysky is holding Ukraine by its “Privat” parts. He also threatened that there will be a Maidan in Dnepropetrovsk on Wednesday...
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Old 24th March 2015, 08:18 AM   #369
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Maybe you should try reading what the Russian guy actually said then you'll see it's not a threat but urging the Danish government not to join the defence shield by pointing out the consequences.
Isn't that the definition of a threat ?
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Old 24th March 2015, 09:33 AM   #370
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
If it were a strong majority, Russia wouldn't need to resort to repression after the annexation. Yes, it's that simple.
I disagree. Putin's regime enjoys very strong support in Russia, yet employs repressive measures against opponents, possibly including murder. Also, as you noted, things might be starting to head south in Crimea, and the Kremlin could be desperate to maintain appearances...which wouldn't preclude an 80ish pct support level at the time of the referendum, especially considering the intense Russian "vote against Nazis" campaign, and the rushed nature of the process at that time.

I'm not saying it's impossible the landslide wasn't fraudulent. I laughed when Putin announced the near unanimous results, and I'm still skeptical today. I'm just saying the truth isn't obvious yet. At least not to me.
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Old 24th March 2015, 10:00 AM   #371
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
I disagree. Putin's regime enjoys very strong support in Russia ...
I disagree. The oppression he uses is necessary to ensure those who don't support him don't lift their heads. There are plenty of those to go around, hence the repression.

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Old 24th March 2015, 02:25 PM   #372
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
This announcement was an attempt to intimidate Denmark into not joining the shield project. It's a veiled threat. As a member of NATO, Danish force is already considered eligible for nuclear targeting by Russia.
Not counterforce targeting, countervalue targeting perhaps, but it's unlikely that Denmark at this point is targeted that way.

ETA: thanks for the implicit spelling correction
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Old 24th March 2015, 02:36 PM   #373
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Isn't that the definition of a threat ?
Not necessarily, certainly not "threatening to nuke them if they join the shield" at least. The previous time, a couple of months ago, this sort of stuff made the same headlines "Russia threatens to nuke Ukraine!" when you read what Putin actually said it was something like "If Ukraine joins the NATO defence shield we will be forced to point our missiles at them. Can you imagine that? Ukraine which has been our brothers for so long and now we'll have to be forced to aim nuclear missiles at them". It was more a lament than a threat.

With Denmark what was actually said was something along the lines of "I'm not sure they fully understand the consequences of this, we'll have to target their warships (the ones providing the shield capabilities) with nuclear missiles. This will lead to a deteriorated security situation between us and them". Whether you want to interpret that as a threat depends on your assumptions.
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Old 24th March 2015, 02:43 PM   #374
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Also, as you noted, things might be starting to head south in Crimea, and the Kremlin could be desperate to maintain appearances...which wouldn't preclude an 80ish pct support level at the time of the referendum, especially considering the intense Russian "vote against Nazis" campaign, and the rushed nature of the process at that time.
The polls don't show this, the latest are from just over a month ago and show nothing of the sort.

Quote:
I laughed when Putin announced the near unanimous results
Because you forgot to take the specific nature and turnout into account (ie 80% voted to join Russia rather than 96% that you'd get if you didn't take those things into account) or because you did but still considered 80% laughable?
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Old 24th March 2015, 02:47 PM   #375
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
He also threatened that there will be a Maidan in Dnepropetrovsk on Wednesday...
But that's impossible, a Maidan is completely spontaneous grassroots stuff, nothing that is pushed by some oligarchs who happen to control the media
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Old 24th March 2015, 02:58 PM   #376
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Not necessarily, certainly not "threatening to nuke them if they join the shield" at least. The previous time, a couple of months ago, this sort of stuff made the same headlines "Russia threatens to nuke Ukraine!" when you read what Putin actually said it was something like "If Ukraine joins the NATO defence shield we will be forced to point our missiles at them. Can you imagine that? Ukraine which has been our brothers for so long and now we'll have to be forced to aim nuclear missiles at them". It was more a lament than a threat.

With Denmark what was actually said was something along the lines of "I'm not sure they fully understand the consequences of this, we'll have to target their warships (the ones providing the shield capabilities) with nuclear missiles. This will lead to a deteriorated security situation between us and them". Whether you want to interpret that as a threat depends on your assumptions.
Why would the presence of a nuclear missile shield force Putin to aim nuclear missiles at them? If he wasn't previously aiming nuclear missiles at them, isn't it irrelevant that they're under the nuclear shield, since (supposedly) he wasn't planning to nuke them in the first place?

If I'm not planning to shoot you, why do I care if you put on a bulletproof vest?
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Old 24th March 2015, 03:07 PM   #377
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Originally Posted by A'isha View Post
Why would the presence of a nuclear missile shield force Putin to aim nuclear missiles at them? If he wasn't previously aiming nuclear missiles at them, isn't it irrelevant that they're under the nuclear shield, since (supposedly) he wasn't planning to nuke them in the first place?
It's an integrated system. Denmark is to provide a radar-enabled frigate linked into the system. Russia didn't say they were going to target Denmark, but that they'd target that warship.
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Old 24th March 2015, 03:46 PM   #378
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Not counterforce targeting, countervalue targeting perhaps, but it's unlikely that Denmark at this point is targeted that way.

ETA: thanks for the implicit spelling correction
The intention of the public statement was to threaten, not to inform. It was an end-around designed to frighten the Danish civilian pop. into pressuring their government out of the shield project by getting the words "nuclear" and "Denmark" into the same paragraph in a Danish newspaper. It's intimidation, not awareness-spreading.
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Old 24th March 2015, 05:14 PM   #379
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
The intention of the public statement was to threaten, not to inform. It was an end-around designed to frighten the Danish civilian pop. into pressuring their government out of the shield project by getting the words "nuclear" and "Denmark" into the same paragraph in a Danish newspaper. It's intimidation, not awareness-spreading.
On what do you base your implicit assumption that fear of Russian nukes would be the only motivation the Danish civilian population could have for not wanting their government to put up a missile shield?
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Old 24th March 2015, 05:25 PM   #380
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
On what do you base your implicit assumption that fear of Russian nukes would be the only motivation the Danish civilian population could have for not wanting their government to put up a missile shield?
I never assumed that, implicitly or otherwise. I expressed my opinion on what the intention was behind Vanin's statement to Jyllands Posten. Just as you drew different conclusions from those same comments.
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Old 24th March 2015, 05:32 PM   #381
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Originally Posted by A'isha View Post
If I'm not planning to shoot you, why do I care if you put on a bulletproof vest?
Wouldn't you care why I'm putting on a bulletproof vest? There's no shooting going on, and you don't intend to shoot, which leaves either a bizarre fashion statement or an intention to start shooting myself.

In this particular case I'd go with the bizarre fashion statement but I'm a pretty relaxed sort of person.
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Old 24th March 2015, 05:49 PM   #382
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Maybe you should try reading what the Russian guy actually said then you'll see it's not a threat but urging the Danish government not to join the defence shield by pointing out the consequences. Consequences which are dictated by military strategy, if you put a shield to hide your guns behind then you get the other guy's shield-breaking guns aimed at you.
And their "diplomats" threatening to nuke them!

Don't forget that part!
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Old 24th March 2015, 06:11 PM   #383
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
The polls don't show this, the latest are from just over a month ago and show nothing of the sort.
Well, I said things might be starting to head south in Crimea, and there seems to be some evidence of that:

Quote:
One year after the annexation of Crimea by Russia, the report Violations of the rights to freedom of expression, assembly and association in Crimea highlights human rights abuses by the de facto authorities, including the failure to investigate a series of abductions and torture of their critics, and their unrelenting campaign of intimidation against pro-Ukrainian media, campaigning organizations, Crimean Tatars and other individuals critical of the regime.
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Old 24th March 2015, 06:25 PM   #384
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
I never assumed that, implicitly or otherwise.
In a sense you did. We both agree that the intention behind making that public statement is to get the Danish civilian population to put pressure on their government not to join the shield. You've assumed that the method used is to frighten them (ie motivates them to do so based on fear of Russian nukes). The reason I think that assumption is wrong is because of my experience with the groups in Belgium opposing the US nukes stationed at one of our airbases (Kleine Brogel). Every man and his dog knows that this means Kleine Brogel is a target for Russian nukes, but fear of those nukes is not the main motivation behind the groups opposing it. Their motivation is based on principled opposition to the entire nuclear dimension of warfare.

That Russia isn't making that information public out of an altruistic desire to spread awareness is obvious, but that doesn't mean it's a threat either or designed to frighten the Danish population. To me it seems more likely that they're informing the public on this, and that ABM installations are also prime nuclear targets isn't as obvious, hoping to capitalize on existing opposition to nuclear warfare in Denmark.
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Old 24th March 2015, 06:28 PM   #385
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
Well, I said things might be starting to head south in Crimea, and there seems to be some evidence of that:
I assumed from the context of the full statement you've made that you meant "head south in Crimea" as "decreasing popular support for their status in Russia".
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Old 24th March 2015, 06:34 PM   #386
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Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
Wouldn't you care why I'm putting on a bulletproof vest? There's no shooting going on, and you don't intend to shoot, which leaves either a bizarre fashion statement or an intention to start shooting myself.

In this particular case I'd go with the bizarre fashion statement but I'm a pretty relaxed sort of person.
That's the big problem with ABM installations of the sort that's getting installed by NATO. It's designed to stop only a limited number of missiles. While it is true that this is what is needed to stop some "rogue state" with a couple of missiles from blackmailing you, it's also what is needed to stop a main nuclear state such as Russia from having a succesful second strike capability.
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Old 24th March 2015, 06:49 PM   #387
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
That's the big problem with ABM installations of the sort that's getting installed by NATO. It's designed to stop only a limited number of missiles. While it is true that this is what is needed to stop some "rogue state" with a couple of missiles from blackmailing you, it's also what is needed to stop a main nuclear state such as Russia from having a succesful second strike capability.
Why is that a problem?
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Old 24th March 2015, 07:15 PM   #388
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Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
Why is that a problem?
Because it unbalances the mutually assured destruction that kept both sides in check before. Neither side would initiate a first strike since the other side's second strike by its remaining missiles would still cripple the one initiating the exchange. If one side has an ABM system in place then the other side doesn't have an effective deterrent other than launching all its missiles before the first side's missiles hit, meaning less time between detection and launch and thus a greater likelihood of an accidental launch.
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Old 24th March 2015, 07:26 PM   #389
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Because it unbalances the mutually assured destruction that kept both sides in check before. Neither side would initiate a first strike since the other side's second strike by its remaining missiles would still cripple the one initiating the exchange. If one side has an ABM system in place then the other side doesn't have an effective deterrent other than launching all its missiles before the first side's missiles hit, meaning less time between detection and launch and thus a greater likelihood of an accidental launch.
So threaten to Nuke countries who participate?

Damn, thanks for bringing back the Cold War Putin.

No wonder Russia is the laughing stock of two continents, notwithstanding their active internet propaganda program.
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Old 24th March 2015, 08:14 PM   #390
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Russia didn't say they were going to target Denmark, but that they'd target that warship.
a nuke to sink a boat.
They chose to say nuke specifically even though it would be absurd overkill.
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Old 25th March 2015, 04:09 AM   #391
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Kolomoiski "resigned":

Originally Posted by RT
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed a decree relieving Dnepropetrovsk Governor Igor Kolomoysky from his post, the president’s website said. The resignation came after a meeting between the two, amid the ongoing standoff around oil giant Ukrnafta.

According to the presidential website, Kolomoysky decided to hand in his resignation, which the president accepted. [...]
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Old 25th March 2015, 05:37 AM   #392
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
Because it unbalances the mutually assured destruction that kept both sides in check before. Neither side would initiate a first strike since the other side's second strike by its remaining missiles would still cripple the one initiating the exchange. If one side has an ABM system in place then the other side doesn't have an effective deterrent other than launching all its missiles before the first side's missiles hit, meaning less time between detection and launch and thus a greater likelihood of an accidental launch.
There you go with "sides" again...
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Old 25th March 2015, 06:30 AM   #393
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Originally Posted by gabeygoat View Post
a nuke to sink a boat.
They chose to say nuke specifically even though it would be absurd overkill.
The scenario in which they'd take down the ship is in the context of full-blown nuclear war, where they'd try to take down the entire ABM shield - the ship just being one part of it. At that point the nukes are already flying and you want to make absolutely sure you take down the shield.
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Old 25th March 2015, 06:31 AM   #394
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Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
There you go with "sides" again...
It's the usual term for denoting the parties in a nuclear exchange.
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Old 25th March 2015, 06:45 AM   #395
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
It's the usual term for denoting the parties in a nuclear exchange.
So would the U.S and Pakistan be two sides? How about the U. S. and India? Should every possible two nuclear power combination be arranged for MAD?
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Old 25th March 2015, 06:53 AM   #396
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Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
So would the U.S and Pakistan be two sides? How about the U. S. and India? Should every possible two nuclear power combination be arranged for MAD?
No, but NATO and Russia/USSR are and have been. It's introducing an ABM shield in the context of a combination that already was arranged for MAD that's unbalancing the situation.

ETA: but if you want to analyze a hypothetical exchange between say the US and Pakistan then you'd call those two "sides" in that context.
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Old 25th March 2015, 07:50 AM   #397
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
No, but NATO and Russia/USSR are and have been. It's introducing an ABM shield in the context of a combination that already was arranged for MAD that's unbalancing the situation.

ETA: but if you want to analyze a hypothetical exchange between say the US and Pakistan then you'd call those two "sides" in that context.
This actually needs a new thread, however I'd last like to add that I don't see why Russia and NATO have to be equal on two opposite sides. We already had a cold war, why do we need another?
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Old 25th March 2015, 09:23 AM   #398
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Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
Wouldn't you care why I'm putting on a bulletproof vest? There's no shooting going on, and you don't intend to shoot, which leaves either a bizarre fashion statement or an intention to start shooting myself.

In this particular case I'd go with the bizarre fashion statement but I'm a pretty relaxed sort of person.
When you've been careless with your use of force and have 'guns' ready, it really shouldn't be surprising.
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Old 25th March 2015, 10:01 AM   #399
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Originally Posted by caveman1917 View Post
No, but NATO and Russia/USSR are and have been. It's introducing an ABM shield in the context of a combination that already was arranged for MAD that's unbalancing the situation.
And Moscow has no ABM shield?
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Old 25th March 2015, 10:11 AM   #400
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Originally Posted by LSSBB View Post
This actually needs a new thread, however I'd last like to add that I don't see why Russia and NATO have to be equal on two opposite sides. We already had a cold war, why do we need another?
Western concerns about Russia long predate the Cold War, although that's when the US got on board. Concerns about Germany eclipsed that from about 1880 to 1945 but normality quickly resumed.

Russia looms large over Western and Southern Europe and has done since at least the days of Peter the Great (when the Russian Empire reached the Baltic and established a new capital right on it. Way to make an entry, guys. Has way more impact than "We come in peace"). Semi-civilised, huge and expansionist. What's not to worry about?

Most of European history since that time has been about keeping the big bear caged. It's so deeply imprinted on European diplomacy that it's not even recognised most of the time. It's instinctive. The Russian instinct is to imagine the West is conniving against its interests; the Western instinct is to connive against Russia's interests.
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