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Tags Australia elections , Australia politics , Julie Bishop , Malcolm Turnbull , Tony Abbott

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Old 29th June 2016, 02:44 AM   #321
Damien Evans
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I think those are actually excluded from that register, but I could be wrong.

Anyone else seen the google doodle today? It's a picture of Eddie Mabo for his 80th birthday.
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Old 29th June 2016, 04:11 AM   #322
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I was also under the impression that political calls were exempt.
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Old 29th June 2016, 04:21 AM   #323
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Originally Posted by wombatwal View Post
I am on a do not call as well. But I have been getting many political calls, I am in a swinging seat.
I'm disappointed that I haven't seen any leaders in my locality. I am in the most marginal set in the nation, McEwan. It's always been thus. In the 1980s we saw Bob Hawke in the shopping centre of a nearby hamlet, Diamond Creek, aka **** Creek. Not a sniff of a top poli this time.

I'll happily bet that, regardless of the final result, McEwan will remain Labor. Chris Jermyn is a ****wit. He tried to crash a news conference by Shorten, made a dick of himself and then when questioned about his party's policies, had no clue at all.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politi...02-gpaer8.html

Quote:
Mr Jermyn was in the media spotlight on the weekend after he crashed a campaign event of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten but then stormed away from journalists who asked about his party's policies.
Turns out he lost investors millions in a useless internet start-up. He also claimed to live in the electorate - on a vacant block of land in the bush of Christmas Hills. This is the best the Libs can do for the most marginal seat in the land? Disgraceful.
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Old 29th June 2016, 04:41 AM   #324
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Originally Posted by wombatwal View Post
I am on a do not call as well. But I have been getting many political calls, I am in a swinging seat.
I am in a safe Labor seat. If this seat ever goes to anyone else then the Labor party is in trouble. Either that or someone as popular as Pauline Hanson is standing.
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Old 30th June 2016, 04:20 AM   #325
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I'm disappointed that I haven't seen any leaders in my locality. I am in the most marginal set in the nation, McEwan. It's always been thus. In the 1980s we saw Bob Hawke in the shopping centre of a nearby hamlet, Diamond Creek, aka **** Creek. Not a sniff of a top poli this time.

I'll happily bet that, regardless of the final result, McEwan will remain Labor. Chris Jermyn is a ****wit. He tried to crash a news conference by Shorten, made a dick of himself and then when questioned about his party's policies, had no clue at all.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politi...02-gpaer8.html



Turns out he lost investors millions in a useless internet start-up. He also claimed to live in the electorate - on a vacant block of land in the bush of Christmas Hills. This is the best the Libs can do for the most marginal seat in the land? Disgraceful.
Get stuffed!

Also, not a hamlet. We have over 12,000 residents.

In any case while Lionking is still in McEwen, Diamond Creek is now part of one of the safest seats in the country, Scullin.
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Old 1st July 2016, 02:30 PM   #326
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Anyway, off to vote soon. Could easily be a hung parliament.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 02:26 AM   #327
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Depending on what channel you watch, Libs look like narrow winners, but an hung parliament is still in play.

Yeah, I know this early call will be punished by those wise after the event.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 03:31 AM   #328
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Go Labor. An upset on the cards.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 04:01 AM   #329
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So it looks like one seat is tipped to go to a Xenophon candidate. That's certainly an interesting result.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 04:17 AM   #330
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Hung parliament more likely than a Labor win. Libs will probably limp over the line. Turnbull in trouble with the hard right for sure.
Senate will be interesting. Go Greens and Indis, in the senate. Unfortunately Pauline Hanson doing well in QLD, so maybe she will get a senate seat.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 04:18 AM   #331
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labor wont win it, but hung parliament is still a possibility.

I think theyre calling some seats a bit early though, I would imagine early/postal votes would be LNP biased quite heavily.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 04:18 AM   #332
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At this stage in the night, but still early because of large number of pre votes, Turnbull in trouble, Shorten should be ok. Leadership wise that is.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 04:46 AM   #333
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Who will hold the balance of power? Greens or others? Pro-Labor or Pro-Liberal?
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Old 2nd July 2016, 04:57 AM   #334
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For a hung parliament to happen Labor will have to pick up a few more seats. I don't think the other parties can.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 05:04 AM   #335
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Going on the current state of the house on the ABC election telecast. LNP 73, ALP 67, GRN 1, Other 4. So 5 in doubt. So 3 of those 5 have to go to Labor, or others for a hung parliament.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 05:41 AM   #336
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Interesting comment from Barrie Cassidy. LNP 74, Labor 71, the rest to Ind, Green, Zenerrers, no one can govern. Thats his most probable outcome. Interesting times.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 06:52 AM   #337
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It'll be interesting. But I think it's clear that Turnbull won't be able to pass the legislation he called this double dissolution for. It's quite amazing to see someone who was considered rather popular to lose so much.

Also I think Leigh Sales and Annabel Crabb have lost it.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 11:54 AM   #338
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How can that **** Turnbull claim victory?

It's not over yet.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 02:32 PM   #339
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
How can that **** Turnbull claim victory?

It's not over yet.
Evidently, Labor will not be able to form government in its own right. The question is whether Turnbull has to head a minority government or if he can get the 76 seats needed to govern in his own right (he's close).

The Senate (the reason for the DD) looks like being a total disaster for Turnbull. (http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-e...esults/senate/) The coalition is unlikely to get more than 28 seats in the Senate - well short of a majority. Other likely results are:
Labor - 25
Greens - 6
Nick Xenophon - 3
Derryn Hinch - 1
Pauline Hanson - 1
Jackie Lambie - 1

With 11 Senate seats still to be decided you can expect quite a few more independents to get elected. There is no way that Turnbull will be able to call a joint sitting to pass his contentious industrial relations bills.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 02:40 PM   #340
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
It'll be interesting. But I think it's clear that Turnbull won't be able to pass the legislation he called this double dissolution for. It's quite amazing to see someone who was considered rather popular to lose so much.

Also I think Leigh Sales and Annabel Crabb have lost it.
Even if Turnbull gets his majority in the lower house you could be right. The legislation gets passed in the lower house, rejected in the upper, so a joint sitting is held. He may not have a majority in that joint sitting to pass the legislation, so the bills are dead.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 02:49 PM   #341
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Even if Turnbull gets his majority in the lower house you could be right. The legislation gets passed in the lower house, rejected in the upper, so a joint sitting is held. He may not have a majority in that joint sitting to pass the legislation, so the bills are dead.
There won't be a new election for over 12 months, if at all. Turnbull has badly lost his "give me a big majority" appeal, and is no fool. He will lose worse if he calls an election soon.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 03:00 PM   #342
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The Conservative knives are out already.
Also with internal public turmoil.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politi...02-gpx6tl.html

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politi...02-gpx60e.html
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Old 2nd July 2016, 04:13 PM   #343
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
There won't be a new election for over 12 months, if at all. Turnbull has badly lost his "give me a big majority" appeal, and is no fool. He will lose worse if he calls an election soon.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 05:44 PM   #344
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And so much for the new Senate voting rules being set up to prevent minor parties from getting the power. Good work, whoever did that.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 05:57 PM   #345
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
And so much for the new Senate voting rules being set up to prevent minor parties from getting the power. Good work, whoever did that.
It would have been undemocratic to prevent minor parties who got enough votes from being elected. The aim was to prevent "micro" party candidates from being elected with less than 1% of the primary vote.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 07:16 PM   #346
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
And so much for the new Senate voting rules being set up to prevent minor parties from getting the power. Good work, whoever did that.
Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It would have been undemocratic to prevent minor parties who got enough votes from being elected. The aim was to prevent "micro" party candidates from being elected with less than 1% of the primary vote.
You are likely to get fewer parties in, but these parties have more senators. The result would be almost the same number of minor party members. In fact could even be more as the quota is only half what it is normally.

If they really wanted to reduce the number of minor party members they need to have a rule that says a candidate needs a certain % (say close to to a quota) of first preferences otherwise they are eliminated.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 09:56 PM   #347
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
If they really wanted to reduce the number of minor party members they need to have a rule that says a candidate needs a certain % (say close to to a quota) of first preferences otherwise they are eliminated.
I'm sure that the big two would like nothing better than to keep third parties out but it would be too difficult to sell.

Had Turnbull tried to introduce minimum quotas for election to the Senate, Labor would in all probability have sided with the independents to inflict an embarrassing defeat of the bill. It could then campaign in the subsequent election that the LNP was "power hungry and anti-democratic".

Ditto if a future Labor government tried the same thing.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 10:11 PM   #348
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Can we forcibly give Queensland independence just so Pauline Pantsdown doesn't get to sit in parliament?
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Old 2nd July 2016, 10:27 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
There won't be a new election for over 12 months, if at all. Turnbull has badly lost his "give me a big majority" appeal, and is no fool. He will lose worse if he calls an election soon.
Are you sure? On ABC radio this morning it was noted that Malcolm was shouty in his victory speech, and he is not really in a place where he should be shouty.
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Old 2nd July 2016, 10:52 PM   #350
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Originally Posted by Noztradamus View Post
Are you sure? On ABC radio this morning it was noted that Malcolm was shouty in his victory speech, and he is not really in a place where he should be shouty.
Well he shouldn't even be making a victory speech. But he won't be stupid enough to go to another election soon.

I'm intrigued by the reaction of the Coalition and Labor. Labor's spin "we don't know the winner, but the only sure loser is Turnbull", while obvious, is nevertheless brilliant. The Coalition's approach is to whinge about "Medicare lies". This is at once pathetic and hilarious. Lies in election campaigns? Bugger me, who'd have thought.

But even so there was an element of truth in Labor's focus on Medicare. The Coalition, at heart, hates Medicare and compulsory superannuation, but knows how these iconic Labor initiatives are wildly popular. So they are trying the death by a thousand cuts technique. Freeze Medicare rebates and freeze increases in superannuation employer contributions.
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Old 3rd July 2016, 12:50 AM   #351
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On the Australian Electoral Commission web site http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm They have.
LNP 64 seats with 3 close.
ALP 69 seats with 2 close
With 7 not decided.
Going on those numbers LNP cannot form government on their own, but Labor can. What am I missing?
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Old 3rd July 2016, 12:57 AM   #352
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Originally Posted by wombatwal View Post
On the Australian Electoral Commission web site http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm They have.
LNP 64 seats with 3 close.
ALP 69 seats with 2 close
With 7 not decided.
Going on those numbers LNP cannot form government on their own, but Labor can. What am I missing?
Christ I hope that's right, but it doesn't gel with other forecasts.

Libs have their faith in postal votes. They have always favoured them because "only the rich holiday away from home". This is no longer the case.

Still down to the line.
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Old 3rd July 2016, 01:20 AM   #353
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Christ I hope that's right, but it doesn't gel with other forecasts.

Libs have their faith in postal votes. They have always favoured them because "only the rich holiday away from home". This is no longer the case.

Still down to the line.
It isn't a forecast at all. That is the official count based on current vote tallies. Labor ahead in 71, with 2 of those close, LNP ahead in 67 with 3 of those close, Greens, Katter and Xenophon ahead in one each and 2 independents ahead, and 7 seats too close to call a candidate ahead. I say ahead because even the most safe seats haven't been officially declared yet, and won't be until early votes and postal votes are counted.
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Old 3rd July 2016, 01:27 AM   #354
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Originally Posted by Damien Evans View Post
It isn't a forecast at all. That is the official count based on current vote tallies. Labor ahead in 71, with 2 of those close, LNP ahead in 67 with 3 of those close, Greens, Katter and Xenophon ahead in one each and 2 independents ahead, and 7 seats too close to call a candidate ahead. I say ahead because even the most safe seats haven't been officially declared yet, and won't be until early votes and postal votes are counted.
Christ, pedantry plus.

So who do you think will win most seats? Do you think postal votes will make a difference?

It would be more productive if you stopped attacking me and posted your own opinions. I'm not counting on it.
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Old 3rd July 2016, 02:04 AM   #355
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Just been looking at the all important Senate results. They appear to be
Liberals / National = 28
ALP = 25
Greens = 6
Nick Xenophon Team = 3
Others 3.
Source = http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-e...esults/senate/

This means that if the Liberals win they need 5 independants to pass any legislation.

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Old 3rd July 2016, 02:08 AM   #356
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
It would be more productive if you stopped attacking me and posted your own opinions.
That appeared to be a valid opinion of the AEC web site to me.
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Old 3rd July 2016, 02:10 AM   #357
lionking
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
That appeared to be a valid opinion of the AEC web site to me.
A bit of history.

Sorry Damien. I withdraw.
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Old 3rd July 2016, 04:43 AM   #358
Damien Evans
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Christ, pedantry plus.

So who do you think will win most seats? Do you think postal votes will make a difference?

It would be more productive if you stopped attacking me and posted your own opinions. I'm not counting on it.

Where did that come from
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Old 3rd July 2016, 05:35 PM   #359
psionl0
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Just been looking at the all important Senate results. They appear to be
Liberals / National = 28
ALP = 25
Greens = 6
Nick Xenophon Team = 3
Others 3.
Source = http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-e...esults/senate/

This means that if the Liberals win they need 5 independants to pass any legislation.
If you are going to plagiarize my post then you might as well go all the way and include the information that 11 seats are still to be decided.

ETA Assuming that the coalition doesn't get more than 28 seats, they will need an extra 11 votes in the Senate to get a bill passed. (There are 76 Senators in total).
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Last edited by psionl0; 3rd July 2016 at 05:37 PM.
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Old 3rd July 2016, 07:21 PM   #360
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It looks like Labor has a better than even chance of forming a minority government. The Greens will surely side with them, leaving as few a two independents it needs to convince/bribe to support them. The Coalition would need something like 6.

And don't forget, the Nationals need to formally commit to the Coalition after the poll is decided. The concessions they will try to get out of a desperate Turnbull, should he get over the line, will be a sight to see.

Plus who will be Speaker?. It would be wonderful if there was another Slipper that Labor could convince to don the robes (and pocket the ridiculous $300k+).
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