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Old 22nd October 2017, 09:36 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
<snip>

It's the remain side that can't or won't say what they want. Of course what they really want is to remain, but given that we're leaving they don't seem to be able to suggest any coherent alternative arrangements that they can agree on.

You are upset that the people who tried to talk you out of doing something really stupid aren't fixing your stupidity for you?
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Last edited by quadraginta; 22nd October 2017 at 09:37 AM.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 09:42 AM   #82
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No matter how much you want to negotiate and conclude the negotiations, you can't do it if the other side doesn't want to.

At the moment the EU just want offers of cash - and aren't prepared to say what we may or may not get in return for the cash until the size of the bribe has been agreed. They're not even willing to begin talking about trade till they've maximized the amount of money they can extort. They may just as well say, "We refuse to negotiate" as that is what their current negotiating tactics amount to.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 09:45 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
You are upset that the people who tried to talk you out of doing something really stupid aren't fixing your stupidity for you?
They need to start putting some figures on paper: "You can have trade with these specified tariff levels so long as you continue to pay us twenty billion Euros per year." That sort of thing.

Once we can see the size of the bill for maintaining "Free" trade (or the nearest thing to free they'll allow) we can decide whether or not it's worth it.

Last edited by ceptimus; 22nd October 2017 at 09:46 AM.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 09:46 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No matter how much you want to negotiate and conclude the negotiations, you can't do it if the other side doesn't want to.

At the moment the EU just want offers of cash - and aren't prepared to say what we may or may not get in return for the cash until the size of the bribe has been agreed. They're not even willing to begin talking about trade till they've maximized the amount of money they can extort. They may just as well say, "We refuse to negotiate" as that is what their current negotiating tactics amount to.
The Brexit bill they're trying to negotiate has nothing to do with what you get in return, its about existing commitments and pensions. They're absolutely right not to move on any future relationship until they see whether or not the British are going to act in good faith about the ending of the existing relationship.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 09:47 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
April Fools' Day is going take on an entirely different meaning in 2019 in the U.K.?
To be fair, the Financial year starts on that date, and we are used to new government initiatives starting then, but yes.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 09:59 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
The Brexit bill they're trying to negotiate has nothing to do with what you get in return, its about existing commitments and pensions. They're absolutely right not to move on any future relationship until they see whether or not the British are going to act in good faith about the ending of the existing relationship.
I wonder how many times now I've seen this exact point covered.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 10:00 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
The Brexit bill they're trying to negotiate has nothing to do with what you get in return, its about existing commitments and pensions. They're absolutely right not to move on any future relationship until they see whether or not the British are going to act in good faith about the ending of the existing relationship.
If it was about existing commitments we would be able to calculate the amount. The fact that no one will specify an amount is very telling.

May has already said that we will pay what we legally owe - but that is not good enough for the EU side.

Anyway, from a UK perspective it would be stupid to agree to pay, say, forty billion euros to begin trade talks, only to find that the trade talks result in no deal. Cheaper to just crash out, when people on both sides have already admitted that the continuing payments to the EU will then be little or nothing.

The EU must know this. We're not going to give them tens of billions of Euros that we don't have to unless we get something in return. They're either hoping that we will be stupid enough to do that, or they're hoping that by stalling the process for long enough it will get cancelled and then they'll be able to continue to suck on the UK money teat indefinitely.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 10:01 AM   #88
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No matter how much you want to negotiate and conclude the negotiations, you can't do it if the other side doesn't want to.

...snip....
As the EU is finding out!
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Old 22nd October 2017, 10:03 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If it was about existing commitments we would be able to calculate the amount. The fact that no one will specify an amount is very telling.



...snip...
Wow!

In that case you must be able to tell me when Nigel Farage will die.

I'll not ask you for the actual day or even month - just the year please.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 10:06 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
If it was about existing commitments we would be able to calculate the amount. The fact that no one will specify an amount is very telling.

May has already said that we will pay what we legally owe - but that is not good enough for the EU side.

Anyway, from a UK perspective it would be stupid to agree to pay, say, forty billion euros to begin trade talks, only to find that the trade talks result in no deal. Cheaper to just crash out, when people on both sides have already admitted that the continuing payments to the EU will then be little or nothing.

The EU must know this. We're not going to give them tens of billions of Euros that we don't have to unless we get something in return. They're either hoping that we will be stupid enough to do that, or they're hoping that by stalling the process for long enough it will get cancelled and then they'll be able to continue to suck on the UK money teat indefinitely.
The EU has already presented its formula to calculate the figure Britain owes on the way out the door, its the UK who hasn't responded with a formula of their own or an agreement to the EU's one.

May's agreement to pay what they owe is nice and vague but doesn't get anywhere near agreeing what they do legally owe.

Crashing out with no deal is not a viable option for the UK, for reasons that have been amply explained to you in this thread. The EU know this, which is why they're not rolling over for Britain's bullying demand that they negotiate a trade deal before deciding on the divorce agreement. Sooner or later, Britain will have to get real, stop posturing, and deal with the three issues the EU wants dealt with - money, people, and Ireland.

Only then will trade negotiations start.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 10:07 AM   #91
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You're saying no one can calculate the cost of pension plan without a time machine to know when that person will die?

And it's not just one person - it will be averaged over hundreds (thousands?) of them. That's what actuarial tables are for.

Give me a break. This is supposed to be a critical thinking forum. Start thinking critically.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 10:12 AM   #92
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It would be simplest and cheapest to just cancel the pensions of MEPs. They'll have the standard old age pension and means tested benefits to fall back on - just like the people who would otherwise be paying for their bloated pensions. Most of them are probably pretty wealthy anyway. Farage could just write a few books (or have some hack ghost write them for him) if and when he finds he can't afford food and shelter.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 10:26 AM   #93
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Splendid! We need to negotiate hundreds of new trade treaties so let's start by establishing a solid reputation as a country that doesn't honour financial pledges.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 10:30 AM   #94
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How I stopped worrying and learned to love Brexit
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Old 22nd October 2017, 11:30 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Quote:
There’s a great lesson about this in Alice in Wonderland – the classic story of a little girl exploring a post-fact world. I’m sure you remember the bit in which the Queen tells Alice that you can believe pretty much anything if you practise: “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” This is good advice for everyone. Instead of starting your day with mindfulness exercises, start by practising mindlessness. Once you’ve increased your capacity for tolerating nonsense you’ll find Brexit starts to make a lot more sense.
Words to live by.

We can use this here in the States to get us through the Trump Presidency, too.
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Old 22nd October 2017, 10:54 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
You're saying no one can calculate the cost of pension plan without a time machine to know when that person will die?

And it's not just one person - it will be averaged over hundreds (thousands?) of them. That's what actuarial tables are for.

Give me a break. This is supposed to be a critical thinking forum. Start thinking critically.
That means you are now happy with estimated figures?
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Old 22nd October 2017, 11:52 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
That means you are now happy with estimated figures?
.....and estimated figures compiled by experts at that
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Old 23rd October 2017, 12:55 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
The EU has already presented its formula to calculate the figure Britain owes on the way out the door
Evidence?

Quote:
Crashing out with no deal is not a viable option for the UK
There's some confusion on this.

The nightmare scenario is 'no deals on anything', which is extremely unlikely. This is not the same as no future trade deal.
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Old 23rd October 2017, 05:34 AM   #99
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There's a bit of a furore at the moment about leaked accounts in a German newspaper of Theresa May's meeting which was, according to the UK government, so productive.

Quote:
Theresa May will update MPs about Brexit talks amid a row over an alleged leak about a dinner with EU leaders in Brussels last week.

Her ex-adviser Nick Timothy accused EU official Martin Selmayr of being the source of an account in a German paper claiming Mrs May was politically weak and had "begged for help" at a dinner.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41720244

As usual, the idiots who are mishandling the negotiations are not interested in addressing the issue or indeed progressing the talks but are instead intent on spreading the "poor little Britain being picked on by those horrible Europeans" narrative.
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Old 23rd October 2017, 06:55 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
There's a bit of a furore at the moment about leaked accounts in a German newspaper of Theresa May's meeting which was, according to the UK government, so productive.
It's not so much the meeting as Juncker's depiction of May.

Here's the full article translated:

https://medium.com/@ninaschick/brexi...n-cb3705974bd6

Quote:
Earlier this week, May and Juncker met again for dinner, this time in Brussels. But now everything was quite different. May did not talk herself up, she begged for help. She talked about the risk she had recently put herself at when she gave up the hard Brexit course, asking the EU for a transitional period of two years, in which everything is going to remain the same. She reminded him that she had moved on the delicate issue of finances. And she told him that, at home, friends and enemies are breathing down her neck, waiting for her to fall. She had no room for manoeuvre, said May — so the Europeans would have to make it for her.
Theresa May seemed anxious to the President of the Commission, despondent and discouraged. A woman who hardly dares trust anybody, but is not ready for an act of liberation either. May’s facial expressions and appearance spoke volumes — that’s how Juncker later described it to his colleagues. Everyone can see it: the Prime Minister is drawn from the struggle within her own party. She has deep circles under her eyes. She looks like someone who does not sleep for nights on end. She rarely laughs, though clearly, she has to for the photographers. But it looks forced. Previously, May could literally pour out laughter — her whole body shaking. Now she has to use her utmost strength to avoid losing her composure.

Last edited by Aber; 23rd October 2017 at 06:57 AM.
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Old 23rd October 2017, 07:11 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
There's a bit of a furore at the moment about leaked accounts in a German newspaper of Theresa May's meeting which was, according to the UK government, so productive.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41720244

As usual, the idiots who are mishandling the negotiations are not interested in addressing the issue or indeed progressing the talks but are instead intent on spreading the "poor little Britain being picked on by those horrible Europeans" narrative.
Worth noting that Martin Selmayr has issued a statement denying that he leaked this and repudiating the contents of the story as fictional.
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Old 23rd October 2017, 07:46 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by Hubert Cumberdale View Post
Worth noting that Martin Selmayr has issued a statement denying that he leaked this and repudiating the contents of the story as fictional.
Well, was he likely to say anything else?
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Old 23rd October 2017, 11:20 AM   #103
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From Badscience

Originally Posted by jdc
Looking at what foods we tend to import, it seems to be mainly meat, vegetables, and fruit. So nothing we'll miss then.

We've still got cereals and milk so maybe that MP who wanted to make a success of breakfast had it right after all.
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Old 23rd October 2017, 11:33 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Well, was he likely to say anything else?
Seems like Juncker has also juncked the story
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Old 23rd October 2017, 01:28 PM   #105
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
One would hope that the EU negotiators would start to actually, you know, negotiate. So far they're just stalling to try to extort more money from us.
It is almost schadenfreude inducing to watch you realise that the EU isn't going to roll over and let you tickle their belly as you leavers promised us just a few months ago. Then I remember I'm in the same boat with you and the others at the helm.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
It wasn't the politicians who fixed the Y2K bugs either. It was people like me.

It will be the same with Brexit - once the politicians have moved along with their time-wasting dance, it will be down to people who actually work for a living to make the necessary changes.

Some things certainly won't be complete by the target date - the politicians have already wasted over a year. There will have to be an interim period where many things carry on as at present.

Even if the politicians had got their act together (and in my opinion it's mainly the EU side that are delaying things) then it still doesn't make sense to try to change everything over on the same day - much better to plan a phased process where, say, regulations about medicine come into force on one day, and regulations about flights some other day.

Plan the most important and/or easily achievable changes to take place straight away and the less important or more difficult ones later. As with any large complex project you'll expect some time overruns on some issues and the sensible adult approach on those is to say, "We're not ready to make that change yet - so until we are we'll carry on doing things the way we have for the last several decades."
Yeah. The politicians might actually have to define and achievable goal though. The Y2K was a very neatly confined problem. Brexit not so much. Not one of you leavers can actually articulate what the reality of it means yet.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The EU plan is to extort as much money as possible from the UK before even allowing the negotiations on the real issues to begin.

The UK plan was to keep trade free but take control of our borders and laws. In the face of EU obstructionism the current UK plan seems to be to wait till the EU realize that they have a lot to lose too - and so begin to negotiate in good faith.

I've said many times here that I thought the negotiations would be a complete waste of time - and so far I've been proved right. It's a tragedy that the politicians have stalled the process for so long already - but that's what politicians do.
And you were repeatedly told that your plan to keep free trade without the other freedoms would be rejected by the EU. And now they are doing that you are realising we were right.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
What specifics do you want? UK leave the EU and no longer have MEPs or other political representation. No tariffs on any goods or trade. End to free movement of people. EU Law no longer trumps UK law. This is what the leave side have been advocating for many years before the referendum even.

It's the remain side that can't or won't say what they want. Of course what they really want is to remain, but given that we're leaving they don't seem to be able to suggest any coherent alternative arrangements that they can agree on.
You do realise both sides have to agree to the plan? Your dream scenario was always wishful thinking. You were told that at that time and denied it. Now you are upset that what you are told is true.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
Yes, but you only expect the politicians to sign the documents, agree how much money to hand over, and set some target dates. You don't expect them to actually build port facilities, hire workers, write the documents they sign and so on - that is proper work to be done by non-politicians once the politicians provide the targets and route taxpayers' money in the appropriate directions.
No I expect them to actually negotiate an agreement that doesn't tank the economy because they are pandering to racists. Too much apparently?

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
He can't do that until the EU either actually negotiate a trade agreement or they delay and obfuscate for so long that it becomes clear that there won't be such an agreement.
Are you finally realising that the UK isn't as much of a big deal to the EU as you dreamt it was?

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
No matter how much you want to negotiate and conclude the negotiations, you can't do it if the other side doesn't want to.

At the moment the EU just want offers of cash - and aren't prepared to say what we may or may not get in return for the cash until the size of the bribe has been agreed. They're not even willing to begin talking about trade till they've maximized the amount of money they can extort. They may just as well say, "We refuse to negotiate" as that is what their current negotiating tactics amount to.
Yep. They refuse to sacrifice their principles to satisfy the UK. We told you that would be the case. Now what? Is it a surprise? You surely had a plan for this obvious outcome?

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
They need to start putting some figures on paper: "You can have trade with these specified tariff levels so long as you continue to pay us twenty billion Euros per year." That sort of thing.

Once we can see the size of the bill for maintaining "Free" trade (or the nearest thing to free they'll allow) we can decide whether or not it's worth it.
Or they could just ignore the UK completely and go on with their lives? They don't NEED to ddo anything.

Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
It would be simplest and cheapest to just cancel the pensions of MEPs. They'll have the standard old age pension and means tested benefits to fall back on - just like the people who would otherwise be paying for their bloated pensions. Most of them are probably pretty wealthy anyway. Farage could just write a few books (or have some hack ghost write them for him) if and when he finds he can't afford food and shelter.
Great. It would be simplest and cheapest to just cancel everyone's pensions. And benefits. Is this your ACTUAL suggestion?

Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Evidence?

There's some confusion on this.

The nightmare scenario is 'no deals on anything', which is extremely unlikely. This is not the same as no future trade deal.
The whole Brexit is just different shades of nightmare scenario. The only possible benefit is that racists get a few less foreign faces on the bus. And everyone else gets to feel the pain of it.
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Old 23rd October 2017, 11:55 PM   #106
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Yep. They refuse to sacrifice their principles to satisfy the UK.
The historic view is that the EU had a Groucho approach to principles.
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Old 24th October 2017, 10:17 AM   #107
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A Tory whip has taken it upon himself to check that no thought crimes happen on UK campuses:

Quote:
Chris Heaton-Harris, Conservative MP for Daventry and a staunch Eurosceptic, wrote to vice-chancellors at the start of this month asking for the names of any professors involved in teaching European affairs “with particular reference to Brexit”
https://www.theguardian.com/educatio...-heaton-harris

Nice though that it's only asks about those teaching European affairs so counter revolutionary thought can still be discussed in economics classes.
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Old 24th October 2017, 10:23 AM   #108
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Why do so many Eurosceptic seem to end up in European parliament?

"Heaton-Harris was elected to the European Parliament in 1999 as MEP for the East Midlands, and was re-elected in 2004."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Heaton-Harris
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Old 24th October 2017, 10:36 AM   #109
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Well on the plus side if there isn't any deal with the EU I'm sure he'll be principled enough to turn down any MEP pension funded by the remaining 27 countries.
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Old 24th October 2017, 11:12 AM   #110
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BBC report on it

A Eurosceptic Tory MP has been accused of compiling a "hit list" of university professors who teach Brexit courses.
Downing Street has distanced itself from government whip Chris Heaton-Harris, who wrote to universities asking for the names of professors.
Lecturers reacted with fury to the letter, calling it a "sinister" attempt to censor them and accusing him of conducting a "McCarthyite" witch hunt.

They have a copy of the letter

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41735839
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Old 24th October 2017, 11:18 AM   #111
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We have had national newspaper headlines calling for judges and ministers to be sacked and for 'traitors' to be deported. Now this. Welcome to the new pub lynch mob 'sovereignty'.
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Old 24th October 2017, 11:54 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
BBC report on it

A Eurosceptic Tory MP has been accused of compiling a "hit list" of university professors who teach Brexit courses.
Downing Street has distanced itself from government whip Chris Heaton-Harris, who wrote to universities asking for the names of professors.
Lecturers reacted with fury to the letter, calling it a "sinister" attempt to censor them and accusing him of conducting a "McCarthyite" witch hunt.

They have a copy of the letter

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41735839

Quote:
Downing Street said Mr Heaton-Harris had written to universities in his capacity as an MP and not as a representative of government.
Seems like a rather desperate distinction.

I understand what they are trying to say, but it seems like weak sauce.
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Old 24th October 2017, 11:58 AM   #113
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The letter itself seems pretty benign. Is there some other material that's caused this big reaction?

Is it just that the MP is a known Eurosceptic? Is it conceivable that a pro-EU MP could have written a similar letter, and if one had would it have caused such a reaction?
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Old 24th October 2017, 12:53 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The letter itself seems pretty benign. Is there some other material that's caused this big reaction?

Is it just that the MP is a known Eurosceptic? Is it conceivable that a pro-EU MP could have written a similar letter, and if one had would it have caused such a reaction?
I can't think of a plausible benign purpose for it, but if you can, I will be pleased to know.
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Old 24th October 2017, 01:57 PM   #115
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Originally Posted by ceptimus View Post
The letter itself seems pretty benign. Is there some other material that's caused this big reaction?

Is it just that the MP is a known Eurosceptic? Is it conceivable that a pro-EU MP could have written a similar letter, and if one had would it have caused such a reaction?
Its not benign at all. The info requested in that letter could just have easily have been gleaned by looking it up on the internet. The point of the letter is to let universities know the government has their eye on them.
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Old 24th October 2017, 02:11 PM   #116
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Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
Its not benign at all. The info requested in that letter could just have easily have been gleaned by looking it up on the internet. The point of the letter is to let universities know the government has their eye on them.

But ... but ... but ... he's not with the government. He's just a Member of Parliament.

No connection to the government at all.
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Old 24th October 2017, 02:16 PM   #117
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
But ... but ... but ... he's not with the government. He's just a Member of Parliament.

No connection to the government at all.
Aye right. Apart from being a Tory whip and writing to them on HoC notepaper. There was a subtle - although plausibly deniable - threat in that letter.
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Old 24th October 2017, 02:40 PM   #118
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Originally Posted by Rat View Post
I can't think of a plausible benign purpose for it, but if you can, I will be pleased to know.
Seconded, because I am damned if I can think of any, especially given the way May has fought so hard to avoid any oversight of her decision making by parliament and the courts.
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Old 24th October 2017, 02:45 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Seconded, because I am damned if I can think of any, especially given the way May has fought so hard to avoid any oversight of her decision making by parliament and the courts.

Why would they have anything to do with it.

It's not like they're connected to the government or anything.
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Old 24th October 2017, 02:49 PM   #120
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
Why would they have anything to do with it.

It's not like they're connected to the government or anything.
Traitors to the people.
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