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Old 16th October 2021, 03:33 AM   #3561
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
All you need to do to sink a boat is let water in. You don't need to overload it. In a dinghy the easiest way is to tip it over.

I remember when I learned to sail many decades ago with the Sea Cadets, it was quite difficult to make a dinghy turn right over to do recovery drill on a capsized boat.
It was easy to get it on it's side but more difficult to force it further over.
Exactly so an overturned boat doesn't sink straight to the bottom by your own account.
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:33 AM   #3562
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Because if the Estonia only capsized because of water ingress into the car deck, the list of 40° would have caused it to capsize belly up, not immediately sink, although it would have sunk eventually as the water filled the air spaces of the superstructure. The windows in a ship are not like house or shop windows they are tough reinforced glass designed not to break even under extreme pressure.



Frogmen had to cut away the glass on the bridge with oxy-acetyline in order to enter.



So much for the JAIC assumption of the windows having broken when in contact with water pressure.
That's a lot of words to say *if* the seawater only flooded the car deck and no further the ship would not have sunk.

I presume indestructible windows cut with oxy-acetylene is bait inviting further derails.
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:34 AM   #3563
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Kurm Sept 2021 found the passenger car deck doors intact and shut.
On which side of the ship?
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:34 AM   #3564
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The maximum capacity of water on the car deck of the Estonia is 18,000 tonnes, thus it is balanced out by the hull.
How does that work?
What is 'balanced out?
We went through this in great detail earlier in the thread.
Remember 'free surface effect'?

half a mater of water on the car deck would be 2000 tons.
When the ship rolled that water flowed to the lower side of the deck. That was enough to push it beyond it's roll recovery point.
Once openings were submerged water would start to flood the lower decks.
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:36 AM   #3565
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
Actually, that photo of a rowing eight sinking is an excellent example to take.

It's a great example for this reason: these sorts of rowing boats don't typically sink because they collide with something, or because they develop leaks. They sink because they have very little free board (in order to facilitate fast and efficient rowing strokes) - which means it's relatively easy for water from the lake/river to splash above that free board and into the boat. The boat is buoyant when its cargo is merely the rowers and the cox. But if/when more water gets over the side and into the boat than can be auto-bilged out, there comes a point when the additional mass of this water pushes the boat past its buoyancy limit. And it starts to sink.

Furthermore, there's ample empirical evidence (not least from the televised annual Boat Race in the UK) that when these sorts of rowing boats start to sink in this way, they simply sink straight downwards, without capsizing. As your photo elegantly shows.....

Oh dear. The Estonia turned on its side at 90° and sank right down within 35 minutes. The MS Jan Heweliusz turned on its side due to water ingress onto the car deck and all of its concrete botched repair jobs notwithstanding, it floated belly up for a further five days.
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:36 AM   #3566
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Because if the Estonia only capsized because of water ingress into the car deck, the list of 40° would have caused it to capsize belly up, not immediately sink, although it would have sunk eventually as the water filled the air spaces of the superstructure. The windows in a ship are not like house or shop windows they are tough reinforced glass designed not to break even under extreme pressure.

Frogmen had to cut away the glass on the bridge with oxy-acetyline in order to enter.

So much for the JAIC assumption of the windows having broken when in contact with water pressure.
WHy would it have floated 'belly up'?
You srtill haven't shown any support for this?

By far the huge majority of ships that sink do not turn 'belly up'

Windows on the ship would certainly break due to the imbalance of pressure What is your evidence that they wouldn't?
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:38 AM   #3567
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
Yes. And when it reaches that 90° inclination, it usually sinks in that inclination. It doesn't continue rolling until it's completely upside down, as Vixen would (for some reason) like to believe.
Good Grief O'Riley. Still on the Herald of Free Enterprise lying on a shallow bank are we?
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:39 AM   #3568
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
On a kind-of-related topic, I remember an episode of Mythbusters (in its original incarnation) where they were testing the effects of inflation pressure on the throwing/placekicking distances of a (American) football. They tried the test using either regular air or helium to inflate the footballs, at varying inflation pressures.

Before each test, they weighed the football. And it temporarily bamboozled even the great Adam and Jamie when the football inflated with helium to (say) 16psi was heavier than the same football inflated with helium to (say) 11psi. Instinctively, one would be tempted to think that "more helium" equals "lighter". But, of course, if that "more helium" is contained/constrained within the same volume (here, the internal volume of the football), it is indeed heavier.


(Not to mention the fact that more helium - whatever volume it's contained within - always has a greater mass than less helium. It's just that one would have to assess the helium in a vacuum to make that determination, owing to the fundamental difficulty of "weighing" helium when it's surrounded by air)
That's telling that Archimedes bloke.
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:41 AM   #3569
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
I suppose so. I’m still not convinced of the relevance of bulkheads to water flooding the car deck of a ferry, in any case.
Er, they are in the hull. See the green bits on the diagram.
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:42 AM   #3570
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Originally Posted by junkshop View Post
Well, they're not relevant, are they?

I suspect this may have been intended as a set-up for Vixen to revisit some of her earlier theories about passanger cabins being watertight, and 'therefore there must have been a breach in the starboard side of the hull'. There was something about swimming pools in there, too. Maybe l'm just a cynic.

I hope we get the one with the mini-sub, that was a favourite of mine.
The only unsealed areas of the hull were the engine room, the swimming pool and sauna and public toilets IIRC.
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:43 AM   #3571
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Er, the MS Jan Heweliusz a good comparator to the Estonia and in a terrible unseaworthy state that I believe the owners were charged with manslaughter. Yet this ramshackle ferry stayed afloat turtled for five days, nonetheless.
Jan Heweliusz did not lose it's bow. It was already an unstable ship. It was already known to have ballast problems and the stability was further reduced following repairs to the upper deck which involved pouring around 100 tons of concrete to level it out.
It also sailed in hurricane force winds and far worse conditions than the Estonia.


Have you been reading.

Björkman, Anders,(2007). Estonia revisited +Learning from the often forgotten Jan Heweliusz disaster
http://estonia.kajen.com/Naval_Architect_Jan_07.pdf

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 16th October 2021 at 03:47 AM.
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:44 AM   #3572
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
No. I'd rather not argue about predictions based on "principles" when I have everything I need to try it out for myself.

Awaiting your instructions for how to introduce the water in an appropriately unbalanced way, for your clearly stated prediction of the results based on the principles you describe, and of course your wager.
A boat is designed to float. Why would anyone deliberately try to make it sink. It doesn't disprove anything, does it? You can make it sink by simply drilling a hole in the hull. Why waste time filling it with water?
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:46 AM   #3573
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
That's telling that Archimedes bloke.
Archimedes is not on your team here. His principle is not "all foundering ships roll over and float unless sabotaged".
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:47 AM   #3574
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The only unsealed areas of the hull were the engine room, the swimming pool and sauna and public toilets IIRC.
How did any passengers escape then?
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:47 AM   #3575
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
We're talking about two things. You've conflated them incorrectly because you're letting Anders Björkmann teach you his special brand of physics. Capsizing has to do with the balance of roll moments and righting moments and has nothing to do with a change in buoyancy. Sinking has to do with a change in buoyancy, which has nothing to do with roll. In your haste to appear smart, you've cited factors for one as if they were factors for the other, and are frantically trying to suggest that your critics don't understand "simple" physics. And now you're waffling your way out of a practical experiment to demonstrate that "simple physics" doesn't do what you say it does.



Displaced with respect to what? What are the forces involved? Upon what centers do they act? What physical phenomena define these centers? In what directions must each force act? What are the force vectors involved, and how do they sum? Draw us a diagram that shows that a mere change in the magnitude of the buoyancy vector will also necessarily change the center where it acts and thus create a roll moment that inevitably capsizes the ship.



No. When a vessel lists at 90° it lists at 90°. When a vessel lists at 180° it will have capsized belly-up because that's just a different way of saying that's what its roll angle is. This is a function of the vector sum of forces and the dynamics of it are driven by factors that are only partly related to the magnitudes of these vectors. You present a source that deals only in the magnitude of vectors (in fact eliminating the vector reality altogether) and cite it as proof that the directions of these vectors and where they act upon the structure of the ship makes capsizing inevitable.

In practical shipbuilding, once a vessel has rolled to particularly degree and after the righting moment is no longer strong enough to restore trim, openings in the vessel become vulnerable to shipping water into the hull that a were intended to remain above water. The notion that any ship whose "hull is not breached" will float upside down for hours in any roll attitude is naive.



A superstructure changes the vector sum, to be sure. But in ways your model of the dynamics doesn't properly consider. Draw us vector diagrams of a ships with and without a superstructure and show how the sums change as buoyancy increases or decreases.



Ah, we're to the, "You may be an expert, but I say you're lying," stage of the conspiracy-theorist's pattern argument.
I don't need to draw you a diagram, as it is all readily available on the internet.

Quote:
The understanding of a surface ship’s stability can be divided into two parts. First, Intact Stability. This field of study deals with the stability of a surface ship when the intactness of its hull is maintained, and no compartment or watertight tank is damaged or freely flooded by seawater.

Secondly, Damaged Stability. The study of damaged stability of a surface ship includes the identification of compartments or tanks that are subjected to damage and flooded by seawater, followed by a prediction of resulting trim and draft conditions.
Marine Insight
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:48 AM   #3576
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Er, they are in the hull. See the green bits on the diagram.

I’m still not convinced of the relevance of bulkheads to water flooding the car deck of a ferry, in any case.
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:50 AM   #3577
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Kurm Sept 2021 found the passenger car deck doors intact and shut.
Two doors out of how many openings to the lower decks?

You do realise that there are a number of passenger doors from the car deck as well as crew access, ventilators and various air intakes and exhausts.
Once the ship had a list other openings would be below the surface.
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:52 AM   #3578
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
I'm sure there are several other routes water could have taken off the car deck and deeper into the ship but if, as seems very likely to me, the only two doors which were accessible for inspection are on the side of the wreck which lies uppermost then they'd be entirely irrelevant to the sinking anyway.
Kurm's September expedition was a preliminary one but now the two intact doors have been discovered it may mean a return visit in Spring to check out the other doors and wndows.

Quote:
In the case of the investigation of the car deck, Kurm once again pointed out the fact that the two passenger doors in its central section were closed. Kurm explained that the discovery is important because previous simulations have assumed that the doors broke.

"The fact that the two doors are in front and intact does not mean that the other doors are also in front and intact," Kurm said, admitting that they could not get more detailed information with the robot.
Press udpate 12.10.2021
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:54 AM   #3579
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
Indeed, I suspect she's pursuing this line of argument because the "principles" she's alluding to are those put forward by Anders Björkmann. She's learned that citing him as an authority will result in derisive laughter from those of us who know him better than she. But she doesn't have the wherewithal to explain and defend those "principles" herself. So all that's left is bluster, which tends to cave in fairly quickly in the face of practical demonstrations.



Four or five tequila shots should do the trick.
So Anders Björkmann is this weird guy who offered people a million dollars if they could prove him wrong...?

Not like anyone else we know of?
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:55 AM   #3580
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Yes, and they could hang on to the keel of the upturned boat and even right it.
Who could Vikings?

How would they do that when the ship would have sunk?

On a dinghy with built in buoyancy it is possible if you have something to use as a lever like the fin keel of a sailing boat otherwise how would you do it?

Even on a sailing boat if it has gone right over you won't get it upright unless you can clear the sheets etc to make sure the sail is free.
Even then it only works for a small dinghy with a small sail otherwise the weight of the wet sail and the drag it causes is too much for just a couple of people to overcome.
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Old 16th October 2021, 03:58 AM   #3581
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Exactly so an overturned boat doesn't sink straight to the bottom by your own account.
A sailing dinghy has sealed buoyancy tanks or inflated 'bladders' strapped in to the hull to stop it sinking otherwise it will sink straigh to the bottom.





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Old 16th October 2021, 03:59 AM   #3582
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
No. They. Don't. Always. Do. That.

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE


I honestly haven't the foggiest clue why you are even making this baseless claim AGAIN, except maybe it's something you thought before and as always you won't admit to making a mistake. What difference does it make if the Estonia went down on her side vs upside down with respect to if she was deliberately sunk or not???
The Andrea Dorea sinking was caused by:
  • a collision with another ship
  • being top heavy
What makes you think it is the same circumstances as the Estonia?

For a good example of what happens to a top heavy ship look up that earlier riverboat example or even the Vasa.

Quote:
On 25 July 1956, while Andrea Doria was approaching the coast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, United States, bound for New York City, the eastbound Stockholm of the Swedish American Line collided with her in one of history's most infamous maritime disasters. Struck in the side, the top-heavy Andrea Doria immediately started to list severely to starboard, which left half of her lifeboats unusable.
wiki

Of course, if Estonia was in a collision, that would indeed explain the rapid sinking.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:01 AM   #3583
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Oh dear. The Estonia turned on its side at 90° and sank right down within 35 minutes. The MS Jan Heweliusz turned on its side due to water ingress onto the car deck and all of its concrete botched repair jobs notwithstanding, it floated belly up for a further five days.
The Jan Heweliusz was already unstable, there were concerns over it's ballasting and the topweight added by repairs.

Water did not enter the car deck, it capsized in a storm because it was an unstable ship. It was in hurricane conditions and turned over quickly without extensive flooding.

As I keep saying, different ships sink for different reasons.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:02 AM   #3584
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Good Grief O'Riley. Still on the Herald of Free Enterprise lying on a shallow bank are we?
It san, it did not turn over.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:03 AM   #3585
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Er, they are in the hull. See the green bits on the diagram.
What about them?
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:04 AM   #3586
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
In which way are any of the aforementioned equivalent to the Estonia?

Re USS Arizona, for example:

Quote:
On 7 December 1941, Arizona was hit by Japanese torpedo bombers that dropped armor-piercing bombs during the attack on Pearl Harbor. After one of their bombs detonated in a magazine, she exploded violently and sank, with the loss of 1,177 officers and crewmen.
wiki

It is telling is it not that not one single person can find one single equivalent of the Estonia sinking.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:05 AM   #3587
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Kurm's September expedition was a preliminary one but now the two intact doors have been discovered it may mean a return visit in Spring to check out the other doors and wndows.







Press udpate 12.10.2021
Did they inspect two doors under all the car deck debris on the relevant side of the ship, or two doors on the accessible but irrelevant side?
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:07 AM   #3588
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
So that's all those ships that were torpedoed and bombed and they all went down without turning over!

By far the vast majority of ships you see sinking after hitting mines or being torpedoed look like this

https://i.imgur.com/pQS8yyrl.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/C8nyAwLl.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/EbeRtuKl.jpg
Er, we were talking about capsizing. Why have you changed the subject to torpedoed ships?

Strangely enough, the Estonia behaved exactly like the torpedoed Wilhelm Gustloff but we all have to pretend it was the bow visor falling off because of a Baltic wave - a wavy sea anyway so ships are ipso facto designed for Baltic conditions in that region.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:08 AM   #3589
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The only unsealed areas of the hull were the engine room, the swimming pool and sauna and public toilets IIRC.
How big do you think the machinery and pool spaces are?

What percentage of the reserve buoyancy do they represent??

How much water was already in the hull when the order to secure openings came?

How do you know the status of all the openings in the ship?

How do you know the condition of all the pipe and cable glands that run through compartments?

Did the last person out of every compartment make sure the openings were all securely dogged?

Were all the compartments watertight from above?

Unlike a warship where every compartment below the waterline only has access from above, on a ferry or merchant ship there are openings between the compartments.

Even on navy ships doors and hatches don't always get correctly closed when evacuating a compartment. I can link you to a document that details how flooding progressed through warships in WW2.
A surprisingly large amount of flooding was due to unsecured openings and badly packed or neglected glands on pipes and cable runs.

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Old 16th October 2021, 04:09 AM   #3590
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
A boat is designed to float. Why would anyone deliberately try to make it sink. It doesn't disprove anything, does it? You can make it sink by simply drilling a hole in the hull. Why waste time filling it with water?
Because ships sink when they fill with water.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:10 AM   #3591
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
I don't need to draw you a diagram, as it is all readily available on the internet.

Marine Insight
Your point?
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:11 AM   #3592
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Originally Posted by LondonJohn View Post
Actually, that photo of a rowing eight sinking is an excellent example to take.

It's a great example for this reason: these sorts of rowing boats don't typically sink because they collide with something, or because they develop leaks. They sink because they have very little free board (in order to facilitate fast and efficient rowing strokes) - which means it's relatively easy for water from the lake/river to splash above that free board and into the boat. The boat is buoyant when its cargo is merely the rowers and the cox. But if/when more water gets over the side and into the boat than can be auto-bilged out, there comes a point when the additional mass of this water pushes the boat past its buoyancy limit. And it starts to sink.

Furthermore, there's ample empirical evidence (not least from the televised annual Boat Race in the UK) that when these sorts of rowing boats start to sink in this way, they simply sink straight downwards, without capsizing. As your photo elegantly shows.....
The Estonia didn't do that, did it?
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:13 AM   #3593
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post

It is telling is it not that not one single person can find one single equivalent of the Estonia sinking.
The HOFE is the closest equivalent I know. And it's *very* telling that your only objection to the official report declaring that if it had not sunk in shallow water it would have sunk entirely is that you don't want it to be true. And your sole counter example is a sinking *less* like the Estonia than the HOFE.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:16 AM   #3594
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Er, we were talking about capsizing. Why have you changed the subject to torpedoed ships?

Strangely enough, the Estonia behaved exactly like the torpedoed Wilhelm Gustloff but we all have to pretend it was the bow visor falling off because of a Baltic wave - a wavy sea anyway so ships are ipso facto designed for Baltic conditions in that region.
Because you were claiming the ship was torpedoed so I showed you pictures of torpedoed ships.
Find me one of a torpedoed ship floating upside down if you can.


Wilhelm Gustloff took 40 minutes to turn on her side after being torpedoed, then it sank bow-first ten minutes later.
It did not turn turtle and float for any length of time.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:18 AM   #3595
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Balanced out? Which two things do you have in mind that are balanced here, and what is the significance of their being balanced?

If you mean the weight of seawater which might fill the volume of the car deck is roughly equivalent to the displacement of the ship, then what if anything should that tell us?
The total weight of the Estonia with full capacity passengers and cargo (cars and lorries) - on 28 Sept 1994 it was a half capacity - is circa 18,000 tonnes. at this weight it will float. The car deck is designed to be able to take on 2,000 tonnes of water and it would still float, as the hull can withstand 18,000. If this 2,000 tonnes causes a list making it capsize, then the balance of displaced air and tonnage mean it simply floats upside down instead.

Once water - being heavy - replaces the air in the superstructure's 700 or so individual cabins - then it will finally sink completely. But it doesn't happen in half an hour.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:18 AM   #3596
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The Andrea Dorea sinking was caused by:
  • a collision with another ship
  • being top heavy
What makes you think it is the same circumstances as the Estonia?

For a good example of what happens to a top heavy ship look up that earlier riverboat example or even the Vasa.

wiki

Of course, if Estonia was in a collision, that would indeed explain the rapid sinking.
Bows falling off explain the rapid sinking.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:19 AM   #3597
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
The total weight of the Estonia with full capacity passengers and cargo (cars and lorries) - on 28 Sept 1994 it was a half capacity - is circa 18,000 tonnes. at this weight it will float. The car deck is designed to be able to take on 2,000 tonnes of water and it would still float, as the hull can withstand 18,000. If this 2,000 tonnes causes a list making it capsize, then the balance of displaced air and tonnage mean it simply floats upside down instead.

Once water - being heavy - replaces the air in the superstructure's 700 or so individual cabins - then it will finally sink completely. But it doesn't happen in half an hour.
You are making it up as you go along.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:20 AM   #3598
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
...

Of course, if Estonia was in a collision, that would indeed explain the rapid sinking.
How? Lots of ships suffer collisions and don't sink. It's the damage, not the fact of a collision which would matter.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:24 AM   #3599
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
WHy would it have floated 'belly up'?
You srtill haven't shown any support for this?

By far the huge majority of ships that sink do not turn 'belly up'

Windows on the ship would certainly break due to the imbalance of pressure What is your evidence that they wouldn't?
That is because they sink because
  • the vessel collides with another ship, submarine or heavy object
  • the vessel has been topredoed
  • the vessel is hit by the one-in-ten super wave swell causing it to break in half
  • the vessel hits a natural disaster such as a hurricane which causes a deadly whirlpool
  • water gets into the ventilation pipes
  • a terrorist act such as the USS Cole.

The JAIC assumed the windows on Deck 4 (the upper car deck) had broken allowing ingress of sea water to accommodation areas. Yet Kurm has found the windowed doors of the car deck completely intact, unbroken and shut. Further investigation is needed but it suggests the JAIC assumption is wrong. Based on a false premise.
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Old 16th October 2021, 04:26 AM   #3600
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
... The car deck is designed to be able to take on 2,000 tonnes of water ...
No. It might have enough reserve buoyancy for another 2000 tons but the car deck was absolutely not designed to take on 2000 tons of water.

Show us your reference for this ******** claim.
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