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Old 21st September 2020, 09:02 PM   #2001
marting
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
How about India, specifically rural India? Nigeria? Bangladesh? Myanmar? Liberia? Ghana?

It's reasonable to consider there is advanced testing in most major cities. But there is so much underdeveloped area on this planet, ubiquitious testing simply doesn't apply worldwide.
You're quite correct. There may be a lot of unreported Covid-19 cases kicking about in underdeveloped regions where testing, even for critically ill, is essentially non-existent and rural India comes to mind. But in most of the developed world PCR is pretty much what's used. There may be some uses of antigen (not antibody) tests while cheaper, they are not as reliable. No idea if they are being used where access to PCR is spotty.
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Old 21st September 2020, 10:43 PM   #2002
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
Presenting statistical findings to prove a trend or an effective mitigation technique is nothing but manipulated observations and anecdotal experiences. In order to observe and evaluate advances and/or deviations from a position... standardization and constants are required. If one country reports their deaths as "anyone who with Covid-19 at the time of their demise will be counted as a Covid-19 death" and another country reports their Covid-19 deaths as "if Covid-19 was the reason why the death occurred"... you will immediately have corrupted statistics for comparison. If days are "skipped" in reporting, your results will not be valid.
Nonsense. Many things can be done to make diverse statistics comparable. The results may not be as mathematically precise, but can still be significant. For example if country A counts "anyone who had Covid-19 at the time" while country B only counts "Covid-19 was the sole factor" but country B has 100 times more deaths per capita than country A, that in no way invalidates country A's mitigation techniques.

Covid deniers are just like Global Warming deniers, who use arguments like "different measurement techniques are not comparable", "there are gaps in the temperature record" and "weather station readings have been manipulated, so the temperature statistics are corrupt and results are invalid".

Sound familiar? Your post is full of stuff like that.

Quote:
We can continue to debate the merits of wearing face masks, taking supplements, wearing glasses, et al but it is for naught. There is no standardization in reporting cases and deaths much less constants. We can't even compare a before, during, or after the recognition of the virus due to it's exponential growth pattern plus the virus "morphs" as quickly as it can so what we have today in the way of Covid-19 is not the same Covid-19 we had in February.
More nonsense. Even if there is huge uncertainty in the effectiveness of different mitigation techniques, that doesn't mean we have no idea of their merits.

That the virus "morphs" 'as quickly as it can' is a tautology. But it hasn't mutated much so far. There is some speculation that some strains may be more virulent than others, but that may just be an artifact. In any case, the mitigation techniques that have proven to be effective should continue to be.

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The overall "winner" will be the one who has the loudest voice.
Who is trying to be a 'winner'? The goal should be to do everything possible to beat the virus, not win a debate on who is doing it best.

I am personally sick of this search to find the 'silver bullet' that kills the virus. We have mitigation techniques that work, but some people are too lazy to knuckle down and get the job done, and want an easy way out. Whether it's 'do nothing and hope for herd immunity', or take some unproven and potentially dangerous drug, or deny that the virus even exists, it all comes down to pure laziness.

We tried pretending it would just go away, then we tried a half-hearted lockdown and too early opening up. It's time to stop messing around and take the bull by the horns. Who cares if some other country seems to have done a better job? We know what we need to do to beat the virus, and it's not playing statistical one-upmanship.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 12:22 AM   #2003
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...166v1.full.pdf



While not exactly environmental surfaces the fact no significant deterioration in viable virus occured over 3 weeks and 4C suggests a pretty hardy bugger at colder temps.
Thank you, I missed that. I guess it makes sense that a 'biological' environment would maintain virus viability more than non-organic / dry surfaces.

The initial viral load is high, but there is no significant drop in viral titre; but this would seem to be a much higher load than has been documented as being shed from infected people. So whilst I agree this is an important observation, I am not sure it is a real world issue. This was all raw meat and people will be washing their hands when handling raw meat and cooking it. (People who eat their fish / meat raw know they are risking infections!)
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Old 22nd September 2020, 12:29 AM   #2004
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Anecdotal but some may be interested, although we have seen an upsurge in admissions including those needing advanced respiratory support short of ICU, the proportion needing ICU has fallen, probably because of routine use of proven therapy, those needing oxygen would routinely receive dexamethasone and remdesivir. Additional therapies are only given as part of randomised controlled trials so we will have evidence of what is effective therapy. I think that although hospital admissions may become significant during this current 'second peak', pressure on ICU and deaths may be less than in the initial phase as our treatments are now evidence based.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 01:04 AM   #2005
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That's some good news.

But was wondering could that be because of more people catching it in the lower risk groups, so younger people?
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Old 22nd September 2020, 04:07 AM   #2006
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One possible reason for more people getting the virus in winter is because, due to the colder temperatures it can live longer on a surface. Bad news if you live in a cold climate. Great news if you live where it never gets cold.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 05:59 AM   #2007
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
That's some good news.

But was wondering could that be because of more people catching it in the lower risk groups, so younger people?

That is one hypothesis. Another one is that face masks lower the viral load when people get infected, which tends to make the infection less severe.
But it's probably also because more asymptomatic cases are now registered. They used to go undetected when very few people were tested. Asymptomatic = less likely to die.

Why aren't death rates rising with case numbers? (Conversation, Sep. 9, 2020)

ETA: The difference between the real number of cases = registered + unregistered (undetected) cases (the 'dark number'). The number of unregistered cases was much higher at the beginning of the pandemic when only people with severe symptoms were tested and there wasn't any contact tracing. To some extent the rising number of cases does reflect more testing being done - despite Trump's insane recommendation of less testing as a means to bring down the number of cases.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 06:37 AM   #2008
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
That is one hypothesis. Another one is that face masks lower the viral load when people get infected, which tends to make the infection less severe.
But it's probably also because more asymptomatic cases are now registered. They used to go undetected when very few people were tested. Asymptomatic = less likely to die.

Why aren't death rates rising with case numbers? (Conversation, Sep. 9, 2020)

ETA: The difference between the real number of cases = registered + unregistered (undetected) cases (the 'dark number'). The number of unregistered cases was much higher at the beginning of the pandemic when only people with severe symptoms were tested and there wasn't any contact tracing. To some extent the rising number of cases does reflect more testing being done - despite Trump's insane recommendation of less testing as a means to bring down the number of cases.
Another factor, as I think I said earlier, is the weather; more specifically, the humidity. As winter draws on (fnar!), if that hypothesis is correct, we'll see a greater proportion of severe cases as mucous membranes dry out due to drier air, and the virus is absorbed through the nasal passages and the lungs.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 08:08 AM   #2009
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
That's some good news.

But was wondering could that be because of more people catching it in the lower risk groups, so younger people?
Younger people catching it is the dominant factor here in SoCal where our county is showing the trends over time of the age groups of those with positive PCRs.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 05:01 PM   #2010
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Interesting fact regarding pre-symptomatic transmission.

Our health department sees it as very low likelihood of transmission, and they appear to be correct, with every case in the new outbreak infected by someone who was showing symptoms at the time.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 06:45 PM   #2011
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Interesting fact regarding pre-symptomatic transmission.

Our health department sees it as very low likelihood of transmission, and they appear to be correct, with every case in the new outbreak infected by someone who was showing symptoms at the time.
Interesting! That is counter to everything the virologists seem to be saying, but hey, its still early times
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Old 22nd September 2020, 07:08 PM   #2012
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
One possible reason for more people getting the virus in winter is because, due to the colder temperatures it can live longer on a surface. Bad news if you live in a cold climate. Great news if you live where it never gets cold.
Another possible reason is that when it is colder, the body produces more mucous, which then has a higher potential to get out of the body and into contact with someone else. I believe this is also the reason why winter is flu season.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 07:20 PM   #2013
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Another possible reason is that when it is colder, the body produces more mucous, which then has a higher potential to get out of the body and into contact with someone else. I believe this is also the reason why winter is flu season.
IIRC, the main driver of increased respiratory illness in colder weather has to do with membranes cracking or otherwise being damaged more easily so that problem viruses/bacteria can breach one's defenses more easily. That, then, means both that people get sick more easily and that, because more people are getting sick, there's more virus being circulated around.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 07:47 PM   #2014
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
IIRC, the main driver of increased respiratory illness in colder weather has to do with membranes cracking or otherwise being damaged more easily so that problem viruses/bacteria can breach one's defenses more easily. That, then, means both that people get sick more easily and that, because more people are getting sick, there's more virus being circulated around.
I suspect that both issues play a role. But I'm hardly an expert and will defer to someone with better knowledge.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 10:24 PM   #2015
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Another factor, as I think I said earlier, is the weather; more specifically, the humidity. As winter draws on (fnar!), if that hypothesis is correct, we'll see a greater proportion of severe cases as mucous membranes dry out due to drier air, and the virus is absorbed through the nasal passages and the lungs.

It's a valid hypothesis, but I don't think so. Winter is coming, in the northern hemisphere, but the point seems to be that it drives us inside where we are closer to each other and the concentration of the virus particles in the air increases. The same thing seems to happen when the heat drives you inside to enjoy air-conditioning:

Quote:
Airborne transmission would make people even more vulnerable to the virus in a closed room. Nardell said that in an office occupied by five people, as windows are closed and air conditioners turned on, CO2 levels rise steeply, a sign that occupants are rebreathing air in the room and from each other.
“As people go indoors in hot weather and the rebreathed air fraction goes up, the risk of infection is quite dramatic,” Nardell said, adding that the data, while gathered related to tuberculosis, would apply to any infection with airborne potential.
Is air conditioning helping spread COVID in the South? (HarvardGazette, June 29, 2020)

It didn't happen in Scandinavia, the number of new cases dropped everywhere this summer, but air-conditioning in Scandinavia is pretty rare - as are temperatures so high that they become uncomfortable.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 10:51 PM   #2016
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
IIRC, the main driver of increased respiratory illness in colder weather has to do with membranes cracking or otherwise being damaged more easily so that problem viruses/bacteria can breach one's defenses more easily. That, then, means both that people get sick more easily and that, because more people are getting sick, there's more virus being circulated around.

It probably has more to do with indoors versus outdoors. Flu virus is also more stable at low temperatures:
Quote:
Influenza viruses are also known to be more stable in the cold; thus, robust transmission at 5°C and highly inefficient transmission at 30°C may be due to an increased virus half-life at lower temperatures.
Roles of Humidity and Temperature in Shaping Influenza Seasonality (American Society for Microbiology/Journal of Virology, 2014)

Hence the many outbreaks at meat-packing plants. So the low temperatures to prevent bacterial growth probably contribute to virus spreading easier.

But "despite recent progress, important questions remain as to the mechanism(s) by which humidity and/or temperature affects transmission."
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old Yesterday, 03:11 AM   #2017
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Flu virus is also more stable at low temperatures:
Just to poke at this, I am under the impression that all or nearly all viruses tend to last longer at low temperatures - to the point where viable virus from years (or even millenia) long past has been shown to be recoverable from thawing permafrost.
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Old Yesterday, 03:38 AM   #2018
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
It's a valid hypothesis, but I don't think so. Winter is coming, in the northern hemisphere, but the point seems to be that it drives us inside where we are closer to each other and the concentration of the virus particles in the air increases. The same thing seems to happen when the heat drives you inside to enjoy air-conditioning:

No, it sounds like you’re talking about the likelihood of infection, not the severity of cases. The podcast I was linking to was talking about the results of a scientific study, looking at the cases around the world since the pandemic started, and this was the conclusion. I’d have to listen to it again to get the actual reference, but this is more than just guessing (and it’s certainly not something I’ve come up with myself).

Undoubtedly there are many interacting factors at work.
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Old Yesterday, 03:43 AM   #2019
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Another possible reason is that when it is colder, the body produces more mucous, which then has a higher potential to get out of the body and into contact with someone else. I believe this is also the reason why winter is flu season.
That seems to be the opposite of what the podcast I heard said. In the winter (in temperate zones, at least), the air is drier, so the mucous membranes may dry out, and let the virus through. Once you’re infected, you produce more mucus, but it’s too late by then (and you have more to spread around (I speak from recent experience of very snotty grandsons)).


(Mucus - noun; mucous - adjective.)
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Old Yesterday, 04:25 AM   #2020
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
That seems to be the opposite of what the podcast I heard said. In the winter (in temperate zones, at least), the air is drier, so the mucous membranes may dry out, and let the virus through. Once you’re infected, you produce more mucus, but it’s too late by then (and you have more to spread around (I speak from recent experience of very snotty grandsons)).


(Mucus - noun; mucous - adjective.)

The air is drier outside in the winter, but infections seem to take place mainly indoors where the air humidity is higher because we tend to close doors and windows in the winter to save money on heating. But you may be thinking of this study: Flu virus' best friend: Low humidity (ScienceNews, May 13, 2019)

Which means that it would be a good idea to let the air indoors be replaced by outside air to lower the concentration of viruses, while at the same time keeping the air humidity high and also attempting to keep the costs of heating down. It doesn't sound like an easy task to accomplish.
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Old Yesterday, 05:54 AM   #2021
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
The air is drier outside in the winter, but infections seem to take place mainly indoors where the air humidity is higher because we tend to close doors and windows in the winter to save money on heating.
Central heating tends to dry the air, not make it more humid.
Quote:
Which means that it would be a good idea to let the air indoors be replaced by outside air to lower the concentration of viruses, while at the same time keeping the air humidity high and also attempting to keep the costs of heating down. It doesn't sound like an easy task to accomplish.
Here's the summary from the podcast I linked to:

Quote:
As it starts to get colder and we crank up the central heating in our homes, what will the effect be on the SARs-CoV-2 virus? As a respiratory virus like the common cold and influenza, will the coronavirus have a distinct season and will the incidence of COVID get worse in the winter?

A pre-print study of over 7000 hospitalised patients across Europe and China during the early days of the pandemic plotted severity of the disease with outside temperature. In European countries as we came out of winter, into spring and then summer, Professor Gordan Lauc, lead researcher on the study, found that the severity decreased as it got warmer outside.

He took outside temperature as a proxy for indoor humidity (as it gets colder, we turn on our heating, stay indoors more and the humidity in our homes, and especially our bedrooms drops). He explains to Marnie Chesterton that the subsequent drying out of our mucosal membranes in our noses and throats could be the reason we might expect things to get worse over the winter.
More about the research here - https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/co...tudy-suggests/

If you prefer youtube:
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Old Yesterday, 02:31 PM   #2022
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Interesting piece on the evolution of Covid: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...apid-us-spread

Potentially more contagious versions have taken over.

Quote:
Morens noted that this is a single paper, and that "you don't want to over-interpret what this means." But the virus, he said, could potentially be responding - through random mutations - to such interventions as mask-wearing and social distancing, Morens said.
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Old Yesterday, 06:19 PM   #2023
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Interesting piece on the evolution of Covid: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...apid-us-spread

Potentially more contagious versions have taken over.
This has been kicking around for a while. Initially it was chalked up to "founders effect." Here's a piece from May 7 that the virus had mutated and the new strain was more infectious but was from founders effect. Lot of good pushback in the comments.

https://www.virology.ws/2020/05/07/t...of-sars-cov-2/

There's a lot more recently and the strain now is producing over 99% of new infections.

https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-eve...-mutation.html

It wouldn't have to be that much more infectious to take over like it has. My SWAG is that increasing infectiousness by just 15 to 20% would do it. So an R of 2.5 to close to 3.0 for instance. Because of NPIs being done pretty much everywhere this would be the same as increasing R from .95 to 1.15. where things were somewhat under control. AT that level, environmental effects start to dominate as well. Sweden has benefited from the warmer months where the relative lack of AC in preference to natural ventilation will shift to recirculating warmed air as things get cooler. With much cooler to come.
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Old Yesterday, 08:15 PM   #2024
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The latest final definitive answer on how many infected people remain asymptomatic is: 20 percent.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/most...212247301.html

What's the over-under for how long until another study contradicts this study?

The other final definitive conclusion is that truly asymptomatic people are 65 percent less likely to transmit the disease to others.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/possible-...193025474.html
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Old Yesterday, 09:23 PM   #2025
marting
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
The latest final definitive answer on how many infected people remain asymptomatic is: 20 percent.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/most...212247301.html

What's the over-under for how long until another study contradicts this study?

The other final definitive conclusion is that truly asymptomatic people are 65 percent less likely to transmit the disease to others.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/possible-...193025474.html
This matches the Saggit choir outbreak where 80% of 61 peeps developed symptoms and 2 died.

But is certainly in conflict with the Henderson Farms outbreak in Tenn. where 200 workers tested positive. At the time no-one except the farm bosses had reported having any symptoms. It was the bosses that had symptoms, got tested, then they subsequently tested all the farm workers. Given the turnaround time on testing and the fact the workers were only tested after the bosses got sick enough to get tested, it seems likely that at least some of the workers would have had symptoms. As far as I can tell there has been no followup.

I had just searched a few days ago and found no published, peer reviewed or not, study of that outbreak.

Quite possible outbreaks that are studied are the ones that generate more serious illness and cases like the farm workers attract less attention.
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Old Yesterday, 10:07 PM   #2026
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
What's the over-under for how long until another study contradicts this study?
Not sure on a time frame, but I'd have a contradictory study turning up at odds-on.
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Old Yesterday, 11:11 PM   #2027
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Central heating tends to dry the air, not make it more humid.

Central heating heats the air.
Around here, getting rid of the humidity indoors seems to be the major problem, but it may be a Danish thing. Due to insulation of buildings, humidity indoors tends to build up from cooking, washing, sweating, breathing etc., which gives rise to house dust mites, which cause allergies, which make people think that their mucous membranes are hurting because the air is too dry.
Ventilation og indeklima

I've been told that British buildings aren't insulated as much as buildings in Denmark, which would make a difference in this respect, but I don't know if it's true. And I don't know how it would affect coronavirus transmission.
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Old Yesterday, 11:19 PM   #2028
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I have two heating methods in my house. A wall-mounted gas heater, and an electric heat pump. I'm pretty sensitive to humidity, so I can feel that the heat pump dehumidifies a whole lot more than the gas does.
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Old Today, 12:32 AM   #2029
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Nice little story about one of UK's Covid researchers.

Who also happens to be Miss England!

Better picture of her here: https://i1.wp.com/thegreatpageantcom...rld1.jpg?ssl=1

She should probably not take pulse or blood pressure readings from straight blokes...
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Old Today, 04:23 AM   #2030
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
I have two heating methods in my house. A wall-mounted gas heater, and an electric heat pump. I'm pretty sensitive to humidity, so I can feel that the heat pump dehumidifies a whole lot more than the gas does.
Yup. Heat pumps reduce humidity in both cooling and heating modes.
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Old Today, 09:08 AM   #2031
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
I have two heating methods in my house. A wall-mounted gas heater, and an electric heat pump. I'm pretty sensitive to humidity, so I can feel that the heat pump dehumidifies a whole lot more than the gas does.
Nah. It's the heating of the air that makes it able to absorb more moisture. "Relative Humidity" is a measure of how much mire moisture the air can hold. It doesn't matter how the air gets heated. And since neither of your methods include adding or subtracting anything but heat( compared to a wood fire), any difference you feel must have another cause. Like dirty ducts. Or selection bias.
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Old Today, 09:19 AM   #2032
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In perusing the serology studies, I don't think the age related co-mobidities have much to do with getting it, only with severity / deaths.

So what are the real risk factors of catching covid?

Basically, high air borne loads:

1) indoor crowds
2) poor ventilation
3) ???

I think all other risk factors are so low they pale into insignificance. NONE from surfaces, very few from casual meetings with or without masks. Not much of the population caught it from working in meat packing plants or packages of frozen foods. Even super-spreader events are in 1&2 above. Sturgis, 400,000 people mostly outdoors, 200 direct cases, probably from 1&2 above.

So think, and/or flame away.
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Old Today, 10:39 AM   #2033
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Nah. It's the heating of the air that makes it able to absorb more moisture. "Relative Humidity" is a measure of how much mire moisture the air can hold. It doesn't matter how the air gets heated. And since neither of your methods include adding or subtracting anything but heat( compared to a wood fire), any difference you feel must have another cause. Like dirty ducts. Or selection bias.
Doesn’t burning gas release water? Of course, it would depend how the gas boiler was vented whether it affected the humidity indoors.
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Old Today, 10:42 AM   #2034
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Doesn’t burning gas release water? Of course, it would depend how the gas boiler was vented whether it affected the humidity indoors.
A"wall mounted" gas heater suggests venting the water vapour outside. A moveable heater with gas bottle would perforce be fully internal.
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Old Today, 11:31 AM   #2035
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Doesn’t burning gas release water? Of course, it would depend how the gas boiler was vented whether it affected the humidity indoors.
They better be vented to outside, or you run the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning.
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Old Today, 12:37 PM   #2036
TellyKNeasuss
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A recent CDC report states that from June through August the age group in the US with the highest percentage of positive tests was 20-29. It also states that an increase in the percentage of tests that had positive results among people 20-39 was typically followed after 4-15 days by an increase in the percentage of tests that were positive among people 60+.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...mm6939e1-H.pdf
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