The all-new "US Politics and coronavirus" thread pt. 3

[Resume]

From Worldometer:

Quote:

United States
Coronavirus Cases:
17,626,770
Deaths:
317,928

New Cases:
230,982
New Deaths:
3,277

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by newyorkguy

Meanwhile-

From the Forbes link to the Hill link

Quote:

The Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed has allocated about 2 million doses to states that will be sent out at the beginning of next week. The government has also set aside 500,000 doses in reserve, in case of emergency.

Pfizer's statement comes after Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Alex Azar told reporters Wednesday the company had experienced "manufacturing challenges," and the administration was working to get more visibility into Pfizer's manufacturing processes.

Azar said that because Pfizer did not accept federal funding from Operation Warp Speed to help with the manufacturing and development of its vaccine, the government doesn't have as much information about the company's manufacturing capabilities and supply issues.

Only 33 more days folks, only 33 more days.


I'd also like to know why they need 500,000 doses reserved for emergencies. The whole country is already in an emergency. Makes me wonder if Trump wants to be sure he has control over doses he can reward people with.

[dudalb]

Looks as if it had not already happened, The Battle of Antietam will lose it's title as America's single bloodiest day to the Covid virus.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by newyorkguy

Meanwhile-

I won't dispute that, but the Governor of Florida is giving him some competition.

[Aridas]

To poke at some unpleasant things...

Here's a link to a round up of numerous areas around the US that were recently reported to have either no ICU beds left or very, very few at the time of reporting.

Southern California. Mississippi. Arizona. Southern Colorado. Numerous assorted cities and counties.

And with that as a backdrop... Tucker Carlson just endangered us all by telling Fox viewers not to trust Covid vaccine

[Darat]

Originally Posted by Aridas

To poke at some unpleasant things...

Here's a link to a round up of numerous areas around the US that were recently reported to have either no ICU beds left or very, very few at the time of reporting.

Southern California. Mississippi. Arizona. Southern Colorado. Numerous assorted cities and counties.

And with that as a backdrop... Tucker Carlson just endangered us all by telling Fox viewers not to trust Covid vaccine

But is that anything to worry about? Trump isn’t going to need a bed.

[Parsman]

Originally Posted by Darat

But is that anything to worry about? Trump isn’t going to need a bed.

Since New York and Mar a Lago don't want him, he may be in need of that bed, or a motorway bridge to shelter under.

[Captain_Swoop]

Trump Tweets

Moderna vaccine overwhelmingly approved. Distribution to start immediately.

Europe and other parts of the World being hit hard by the China Virus - Germany, France, Spain and Italy, in particular. The vaccines are on their way!!!

[Craig4]

Wow, I think Pence might be accepting reality. He's on all the networks acting like a real president. Encouraging masks and social distancing, asking all Americans to do their part and getting the vaccine in public.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Aridas

To poke at some unpleasant things...

Here's a link to a round up of numerous areas around the US that were recently reported to have either no ICU beds left or very, very few at the time of reporting.

Southern California. Mississippi. Arizona. Southern Colorado. Numerous assorted cities and counties.

And with that as a backdrop... Tucker Carlson just endangered us all by telling Fox viewers not to trust Covid vaccine

I used to think Tucker had the kind of face that needed to be punched;not I say shoot the SOB. He is a clear and present danger.

[ponderingturtle]

Originally Posted by Aridas

And with that as a backdrop... Tucker Carlson just endangered us all by telling Fox viewers not to trust Covid vaccine

But remember Fox argued successfully that no one who watches Carlson could ever possibly believe anything he says so this isn't a problem.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Trump Tweets

Moderna vaccine overwhelmingly approved. Distribution to start immediately.

Europe and other parts of the World being hit hard by the China Virus - Germany, France, Spain and Italy, in particular. The vaccines are on their way!!!

Does he think our FDA approves of vaccines for other countries?

[Captain_Swoop]

Donald J. Trump Retweeted

Buck Sexton
@BuckSexton
How much worse off would California be if it had ordered *none* of the covid lockdowns and just told people to be cautious for the last 9 months?

Gavin Newsom was doing victory laps because they crushed the virus with all their mask wearing this summer. So what changed?

Again, I ask the “experts” this question in earnest: what would this graph of covid cases look like *without* mask mandates?
“Masks work” is the mantra. Not allowed to say anything else on Twitter (seriously, it’s not allowed)-
But how well do mandates work? Downwards arrow
Quote Tweet

IM
@ianmSC
While Denmark already had a mask mandate for public transit, they expanded mask requirements on 10/29 to cover all indoor public spaces, so let’s see how it’s working out for them!
Oof

(Graph in link)

https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1339397217791045632

[dudalb]

The GOP war on science continues.

[Trebuchet]

Originally Posted by Aridas

To poke at some unpleasant things...

Here's a link to a round up of numerous areas around the US that were recently reported to have either no ICU beds left or very, very few at the time of reporting.

Southern California. Mississippi. Arizona. Southern Colorado. Numerous assorted cities and counties.

And with that as a backdrop... Tucker Carlson just endangered us all by telling Fox viewers not to trust Covid vaccine

His boss, meanwhile, got vaccinated.

[Minoosh]

Originally Posted by Craig4

Wow, I think Pence might be accepting reality. He's on all the networks acting like a real president. Encouraging masks and social distancing, asking all Americans to do their part and getting the vaccine in public.

I hope Trump gets jealous of the attention on Pence and makes some dumb move or remark. Every wedge issue needs to be exploited by the people struggling to get the U.S. (mainly conservatives) back on a reality-based track.

[Resume]

From Worldometer:

Quote:

United States
Coronavirus Cases:
17,888,353
Deaths:
320,845

New Cases:
254,680
New Deaths:
2,794

[Aridas]

Tweet of Brain Schatz, Hawaii Senator.

Quote:

We almost have a bipartisan COVID package, but at the last minute Republicans are making a demand that WAS NEVER MENTIONED AS KEY TO THE NEGOTIATIONS. They want to block the FED from helping the economy under Biden. It’s the reason we don’t have a deal.

[newyorkguy]

I've been checking Worldometer. By lunchtime in New York we are up to 17,918,000 cases. We'll almost certainly pass 18 million today. Meanwhile, the silence from our 'president' donald trump is deafening. I know you could care less, donnie, but do you have to make it so obvious?

Meanwhile, on the vaccine front, from USA Today:

Quote:

Several states are voicing concern over the amount of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine they'll receive in its second week of distribution, saying they've been told to expect significantly fewer doses. Other states, including Iowa, are saying they're getting less than they expected in this week's initial wave. Senior Trump administration officials on Thursday downplayed the issue, citing confusion over semantics and changes to the delivery schedule rather than the amount, while Pfizer said its production levels remain the same.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee wrote on Twitter that the CDC said his state's allotment would be cut by 40%, and all other states would experience similar reductions. "This is disruptive and frustrating. We need accurate, predictable numbers to plan and ensure on-the-ground success,'' Inslee wrote. "No explanation was given.'' USA Today link

I'm sure trump has no worries.

Quote:

[In September] President Donald Trump said the United States' staggering death toll from coronavirus "is what it is" in a new interview...

[Captain_Swoop]

Trump Tweets

We don’t want to have lockdowns. The cure cannot be worse than the problem itself!
Quote Tweet

BBC News (UK)
@BBCNews
Areas currently in tier 3 in south-east England, including London, will enter tier 4 from tomorrow morning
PM Boris Johnson says tier 4 "will be broadly equivalent" to November's lockdown

Latest updates: http://bbc.in/38kFtzl

[Resume]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Trump Tweets

We don’t want to have lockdowns. The cure cannot be worse than the problem itself!

He keeps up with this trope, even after 320,000 dead in the U.S. alone, and millions with long-term health issues from the virus.

Trump is the problem.

[newyorkguy]

Quote:

Trump Tweets
We don’t want to have lockdowns.

Sounds like he knows what's coming and is trying to rev up the troops. Despicable. Here in the NY City area a lot of people -- family, friends, co-workers -- suspect we ARE heading for another shutdown. Local hospitals are running out of capacity and have already cancelled all elective surgeries. As Governor Andrew Cuomo has said numerous times, "The shutdowns work." This time around it is hospital capacity driving the decision. Mayor Bill De Blasio of New York City already thinks we should consider a shutdown right after Christmas, maybe just for a few weeks. Governor Cuomo thinks we can avoid it, urging New Yorkers to "take responsibility."

Personally, I'm with De Blasio. Just too many new cases. One bright spot: New York's fatality rate is w-a-y down. Nothing like last April. This time around it's hitting a hundred a day. In April it was hitting a thousand a day.

[Trebuchet]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Trump Tweets

We don’t want to have lockdowns. The cure cannot be worse than the problem itself!
Quote Tweet

BBC News (UK)
@BBCNews
Areas currently in tier 3 in south-east England, including London, will enter tier 4 from tomorrow morning
PM Boris Johnson says tier 4 "will be broadly equivalent" to November's lockdown

Latest updates: http://bbc.in/38kFtzl

My cousin in Kansas wasn't killed by a lockdown. She was killed by a lack of one.
And now I have another cousin in California to worry about.

[Resume]

From Worldometer:

Quote:

United States
Coronavirus Cases:
18,077,768
Deaths:
323,401

New Cases:
189,415
New Deaths:
2,556

[fromdownunder]

Originally Posted by newyorkguy

Meanwhile, on the vaccine front, from USA Today:



I'm sure trump has no worries.

What I suspect may become more of a worry is how good the distribution methods are when people who have had the initial dose are due to get their second dose.


The timing of the distribution for receiving the second dose would appear to be critical to the efficacy of the vaccine so given the storage and limited retention time for the doses remaining effective, distribution for these will be more important than it is now.


Norm

[Skeptic Ginger]

Quote:

Senior Trump administration officials on Thursday downplayed the issue, citing confusion over semantics and changes to the delivery schedule rather than the amount, while Pfizer said its production levels remain the same.

No one knew it could be so complicated.

[Puppycow]

Wow, look at this. Unlike most run-of-the-mill PC stuff, this could actually cause more people to die:

To Mitigate Racial Inequity, the CDC Wants To Vaccinate Essential Workers Before the Elderly

Quote:

Vaccinating by age would save many more lives.

Deaths from COVID-19 are overwhelmingly concentrated among the elderly, and thus it would seem obvious that vaccinating older Americans should be a top priority. Yet the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have released guidance suggesting that millions of essential workers should receive the vaccine before many people 65 and older.

Part of the reason for this, according to a CDC report, is to mitigate and racial and ethnic "health inequities." Older Americans are disproportionately white, whereas the essential worker category includes a larger percentage of racial minorities and low-income people.

"Older populations are whiter, " Harald Schmidt, a professor of ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania, told The New York Times. "Society is structured in a way that enables them to live longer. Instead of giving additional health benefits to those who already had more of them, we can start to level the playing field a bit."

They are more concerned with "leveling the playing field" than saving lives, including elderly people of color. Even if the goal is to save the most lives of African Americans, not total lives, you should vaccinate the elderly first.

Quote:

It's not as if there's a consensus that this is the right thing to do. The Times notes that this approach "runs counter to frameworks proposed by the World Health Organization, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and many countries, which say that reducing deaths should be the unequivocal priority and that older and sicker people should thus go before the workers, a view shared by many in public health and medicine."

Indeed, this is a prime example of progressive thinking on racial justice leading otherwise intelligent people to take a position that actually hurts racial minorities. While it's true that the 65-and-up demographic is somewhat whiter than the general population, there are still millions of elderly people of color, and they have by far the greatest risk of dying from COVID-19—the age skew of the disease's victims is extreme. A policy of vaccinating police officers, firefighters, and grocery store employees before the elderly is clearly suboptimal, even from the standpoint of just trying to save as many people of color from dying as possible.

[Meadmaker]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Wow, look at this. Unlike most run-of-the-mill PC stuff, this could actually cause more people to die:

To Mitigate Racial Inequity, the CDC Wants To Vaccinate Essential Workers Before the Elderly



They are more concerned with "leveling the playing field" than saving lives, including elderly people of color. Even if the goal is to save the most lives of African Americans, not total lives, you should vaccinate the elderly first.

I think health care workers should be first in line, and it has nothing to do with being PC or saving minority lives.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Wow, look at this. Unlike most run-of-the-mill PC stuff, this could actually cause more people to die:

To Mitigate Racial Inequity, the CDC Wants To Vaccinate Essential Workers Before the Elderly



They are more concerned with "leveling the playing field" than saving lives, including elderly people of color. Even if the goal is to save the most lives of African Americans, not total lives, you should vaccinate the elderly first.

o.O

This attribution strikes me as more than a little odd, to say the least. Not least because... it's still the Trump Administration in charge of the CDC. Blaming "progressives" for the actions of the Trump Administration certainly seems like an odd thing to do. Even moreso when it seems likely that the relevant business interests are the ones who would be much more likely to be influential in the decision making process in general and the Trump Administration/Republican propagandists have long made their lack of concern for the elderly and desire to force workers to go to work at the behest of business owners apparent. I'm calling the stated reasoning troll BS, in light of those factors.

Now, with that said, there's two major concerns in play when considering who to vaccinate, I think, especially when there's limited resources. Danger of personal harm and danger of spreading. The elderly are at much more risk of personal harm than essential workers, sure. Essential workers are likely at much greater risk of spreading the virus, though, and among the essential workers, the health care workers, especially those in hospitals (or dentistries) certainly should have higher priority when they're fairly certainly going to be exposed at a significantly higher rate than others. It's not *completely* without reason behind it, much as essential workers are certainly not all equally at risk.

[newyorkguy]

Originally Posted by Aridas

This attribution strikes me as more than a little odd, to say the least. Not least because... it's still the Trump Administration in charge of the CDC...

True. Of course elderly Americans apparently didn't vote for trump at the same rate they did in 2016. Maybe a little payback, eh donnie?

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Meadmaker

I think health care workers should be first in line, and it has nothing to do with being PC or saving minority lives.

Absolutely. I think everyone agrees with that. Just to clarify what I'm talking about, it's not frontline healthcare workers. Top priority is frontline healthcare workers, nursing home residents, and nursing home staff. This is about who comes after those groups. The elderly or "essential workers" other than healthcare workers. Exactly which workers fall into this category is somewhat up for debate, but police, firemen, teachers, and those who work at grocery stores have been given as examples. Lots of others claim that they too are "essential":
Bank workers could get COVID vaccines before most Americans

Most old people would not be considered essential workers, since they tend to be retired. But they are at much higher risk of dying if they get Covid than working-age people.

[Meadmaker]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Absolutely. I think everyone agrees with that. Just to clarify what I'm talking about, it's not frontline healthcare workers. Top priority is frontline healthcare workers, nursing home residents, and nursing home staff. This is about who comes after those groups. The elderly or "essential workers" other than healthcare workers. Exactly which workers fall into this category is somewhat up for debate, but police, firemen, teachers, and those who work at grocery stores have been given as examples. Lots of others claim that they too are "essential":
Bank workers could get COVID vaccines before most Americans

Most old people would not be considered essential workers, since they tend to be retired. But they are at much higher risk of dying if they get Covid than working-age people.

Oh. In that case, yeah, I can see that as a problem. I thought the plan that I have read was health care workers first, then nursing home patients, and then I don't know what.

Honestly, I don't know which I would go to next. i could see a pretty good argument for grocery store workers or policemen before nursing homes, but it gets complicated trying to work out all the possibilities. If someone comes into contact with a lot of people, not only are they more vulnerable, but they are more likely to spread the disease once they are infected, so by vaccinating a grocery store cashier, you might be preventing multiple cases. In the long run, that could help more than vaccinating an elderly resident of a nursing home.

One would hope that the people making models would have studied this sort of thing, and they have a plan.

[Skeptic Ginger]

AFAIK the CDC isn't recommending all the elderly should be in the top tier. They are talking about people ~70-80+ years old who live in assisted living settings and the reason is that the case and fatality rates have been the highest in these groups.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Aridas

o.O

This attribution strikes me as more than a little odd, to say the least. Not least because... it's still the Trump Administration in charge of the CDC.

Originally Posted by newyorkguy

True. Of course elderly Americans apparently didn't vote for trump at the same rate they did in 2016. Maybe a little payback, eh donnie?

I highly doubt that Trump himself was involved in making these guidelines. It was probably career employees at the CDC.

[rdwight]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

AFAIK the CDC isn't recommending all the elderly should be in the top tier. They are talking about people ~70-80+ years old who live in assisted living settings and the reason is that the case and fatality rates have been the highest in these groups.

The overall volume of deaths from these subgroups should probably make them a priority first. Didn't feel like finding accurate current data beyond a quick google search but the population would be in the 2.5 million range, while attributing to 43%+ of deaths. If matching percentages of deaths to available vaccines were shipped we could cover the remaining group with that very supply.

Seems like a good idea, with the problems arising on the where the additional stock continues to go from there. Those most at risk of death vs those most at risk for spreading/contracting. It is not an easy answer and sometimes math a statistics shouldn't be the end of be all of the discussion.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

I highly doubt that Trump himself was involved in making these guidelines. It was probably career employees at the CDC.

Why would Trump himself have to be involved for what I pointed out? Trump's priorities have been crystal clear for a while now and the people he's put into positions of power are there far more for loyalty than expertise. I would also add that it's been pretty much the Republican Party propagandists as a whole pushing what are effectively "Peons should just be making us wealthy, if they die they can just be replaced" and "Sacrifice your lives for our wealth, old people" attitudes, both directly and indirectly via COVID denialism, focusing the conversation on the negatives of public health measures, and conspiracy theories. Now, the complaint presented is that a plan was rolled out that seems to adhere about as perfectly to the Republican priorities as possible and that progressives, who the Trump Administration has been attacking and trolling for the entire Trump Administration, should be bashed because the already very publicly compromised CDC claims "progressive" justification in a way that really obviously invites intense criticism? Not buying it at all.

[Puppycow]

I suppose that makes sense too, although it differs from the justification given in the Reason article:

Quote:

"Older populations are whiter, " Harald Schmidt, a professor of ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania, told The New York Times. "Society is structured in a way that enables them to live longer. Instead of giving additional health benefits to those who already had more of them, we can start to level the playing field a bit."

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

I suppose that makes sense too, although it differs from the justification given in the Reason article:

As you had poked at before. With that said, of course it differs. To be clear, it's probably not hard to find progressives that order their priorities in different ways. Progressives are people, too, after all. I think that that particular argument is not likely to actually be persuasive at all among a large majority of progressives, either way. Arguing along the lines of the plan being what they think will be the best way to arrest the spread and reduce the total damage done (preferably with the calculations available for checking) would be *far* more persuasive to progressives in general. The justification given in the Reason article looks far more like it was simply seized upon to divert attention for the sake of progressive bashing, like the right wing/libertarian Koch publication that they are. To go a bit further, though, what is this Harald Schmidt's relation to the CDC? Why is he being cited to explain their decision-making process? Just going by the quoted, I would suggest that he's likely unrelated, but, given that his field of work/interest seems to pretty directly be trying to figure out ways to reduce inequality of marginalized groups, was asked to guess and expand upon what the CDC could be talking about when they refer to said 'racial and ethnic "health inequalities."'

[Captain_Swoop]

The army general in charge of distributing Covid vaccines in the US has admitted he failed over the initial number of doses promised to states.

Gen Gustave Perna, the head of Operation Warp Speed, said he took "personal responsibility for the miscommunication" to state governors.

More than a dozen states have expressed alarm at a cut in the expected number.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55380288

[newyorkguy]

Who gets priority for receiving the vaccine is up to the states. New York State expects to get about 700,000 doses by early January, enough to vaccinate close to 350,000 people (people require two doses). Who gets it first? This is what New York has announced:

Quote:

Health care workers. Essential workers. Nursing home residents. New Yorkers who live in the hardest-hit neighborhoods. These are among the different groups that the public health authorities in New York want to prioritize for coronavirus vaccination...There are about 85,000 residents of nursing homes, according to the governor’s office, and the state has told the C.D.C. that there are more than “800,000 critical health care workers.” That includes home health care aides and staff members in hospitals, nursing homes and ambulance companies...New York State has told the C.D.C. that the next groups to be “targeted” for the vaccine will be “other frontline essential workers, medically high risk individuals and individuals over 65.” New York Times article

New York expects to get 700,000 doses by "early January," 800,000 health care workers will get priority so realistically it will be 6-8 weeks before they all get vaccinated. Fortunately, by then trump will be gone.