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Tags agw , climate change , global warming , global warming denial

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Old 19th July 2022, 10:01 PM   #521
lomiller
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I was on vacation in the UK in the Summer of 2003, when they had a couple of days of 100 degree temperature.
It was Horrible.And Ihave lived most of my life in the American West, where yu can expect 100 F of higher days ever year, so I am used to high temperature, and I found 100 F in London hard to take. It was probably the damn humidity that made it so bad.
I don't envy you in the UK.
The upper limit for human survival is a wet bulb temperature of ~35 deg C. Beyond this evaporation no longer cools your body much. At 38 deg C (100.4 def F) you reach this at ~45% relative humidity. at 40 deg C you hit it at ~30% relative humidity Fortunately increasing temperature decreases relative humidity so even a wet climate like England isn't going to hit 45% humidity at these temperatures any time soon. The higher humidity there still makes it far worse than what's you'd see in a dry climate and wet bulb temperatures on 28deg C are more then enough to be fatal to the elderly and people in poor health.


Fortunately Wet bulb temperature of 35 deg C have only been observed a few times and over relatively short periods, but is expected to become more common over the next 50 years. Keep in mind that's the limit where even healthily individuals (or mammals in general) can survive for prolonged periods even if they are inactive.
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Old 29th July 2022, 12:05 AM   #522
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62323048

Quote:
Weather forecasters faced unprecedented levels of trolling during this month's extreme heat in the UK, according to leading figures in the industry.

The BBC's team received hundreds of abusive tweets or emails questioning their reports and telling them to "get a grip", as temperatures hit 40.C.

BBC meteorologist Matt Taylor said he had never experienced anything like it in nearly 25 years working in weather.

The Royal Meteorological Society condemned the trolling.

Most of the abuse seems to have been prompted as links were made between the heatwave and climate change.
Morons.

Nice to see this being spelt out:

Quote:
Hundreds of people have also shared their experiences of the 1976 heatwave on social media, with many making the false suggestion that this month's heatwave was "no different".

The peak temperature in 1976 was 35.9C, more than four degrees lower than the 40.3C recorded on 19 July. Nine out of 10 of the hottest days ever recorded in the UK have been since 1990, according to the Met Office. The hottest day from 1976 ranks as 13th in the list of the hottest UK days on record.
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Old 29th July 2022, 11:02 AM   #523
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62323048

Morons.

Nice to see this being spelt out:
LOL, well, given the state of infrastructure throughout many, if not most western nations, it shouldn't be surprising that the trolls have left their collapsing bridges and taken to the streets and internet to share their dissatisfaction (and personally preferred delusions) regarding the current state of the world.
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Old 29th July 2022, 11:27 AM   #524
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Why we are all ****** and our little individual actions amount to the square root of sod all - https://www.theguardian.com/environm...te-jet-flights - and - https://www.theguardian.com/environm...climate-crisis

Every single thing any of us have done over the years is just wiped out by the actions of ******** like this.

Why the **** am I bothering? We are all ******. And that may well be a good thing.
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Old 29th July 2022, 09:38 PM   #525
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Originally Posted by Carrot Flower King View Post
We are all ******. And that may well be a good thing.
I think it is. We passed peak humanity some time ago, and there's no future for the species. I have a thread on "Reasons humans deserve to be doomed" with several millions reasons. Kylie Jenner and her ilk just made it #5,728,333 reasons.

This is why I stress to my kids to live it up, don't give a crap about the planet or anyone else, and have no children.
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Old 30th July 2022, 05:17 AM   #526
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I think it is. We passed peak humanity some time ago, and there's no future for the species. I have a thread on "Reasons humans deserve to be doomed" with several millions reasons. Kylie Jenner and her ilk just made it #5,728,333 reasons.

This is why I stress to my kids to live it up, don't give a crap about the planet or anyone else, and have no children.
Well your children are broadly immune from global warming, so I think a population freeze in NZ is an obvious first step, like closing a night club.
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Old 30th July 2022, 05:25 PM   #527
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Well your children are broadly immune from global warming, so I think a population freeze in NZ is an obvious first step, like closing a night club.
Good idea. Let's do forced sterilisation and see how it goes. Save a few dollars of DPB as well.
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Old 30th July 2022, 11:09 PM   #528
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Good idea. Let's do forced sterilisation and see how it goes. Save a few dollars of DPB as well.
It seems a spectacular no brainer, more people means more cows.
Let's index population to cows, and clean Lake Ellesmere.
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Old 8th August 2022, 01:22 PM   #529
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Bye bye sea turtles!

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/03/u...nge/index.html
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Old 8th August 2022, 04:25 PM   #530
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Maybe we can have a race with the turtles?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/clima...b03dbb991d9a9e
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Old 11th August 2022, 12:15 PM   #531
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NASA Studies Find Previously Unknown Loss of Antarctic Ice

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-s...-antarctic-ice

Quote:
New research on Antarctica, including the first map of iceberg calving, doubles the previous estimates of loss from ice shelves and details how the continent is changing...

Two studies published Aug. 10 and led by researchers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California reveal unexpected new data about how the Antarctic Ice Sheet has been losing mass in recent decades:
One study, published in the journal Nature, maps how iceberg calving – the breaking off of ice from a glacier front – has changed the Antarctic coastline over the last 25 years. The researchers found that the edge of the ice sheet has been shedding icebergs faster than the ice can be replaced. This surprise finding doubles previous estimates of ice loss from Antarctic’s floating ice shelves since 1997, from 6 trillion to 12 trillion metric tons. Ice loss from calving has weakened the ice shelves and allowed Antarctic glaciers to flow more rapidly to the ocean, accelerating the rate of global sea level rise.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05037-w - Antarctic calving loss rivals ice-shelf thinning
The other study, published in Earth System Science Data, shows in unprecedented detail how the thinning of Antarctic ice as ocean water melts it has spread from the continent’s outward edges into its interior, almost doubling in the western parts of the ice sheet over the past decade. Combined, the complementary reports give the most complete view yet of how the frozen continent is changing.
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/3573/2022/- Elevation change of the Antarctic Ice Sheet: 1985 to 2020
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Old 14th August 2022, 01:33 PM   #532
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PNAS: Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
Quote:
Abstract
Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.
Of particular interest to me, are the following passages:
Quote:
Even without considering worst-case climate responses, the current trajectory puts the world on track for a temperature rise between 2.1 °C and 3.9 °C by 2100 (11). If all 2030 nationally determined contributions are fully implemented, warming of 2.4 °C (1.9 °C to 3.0 °C) is expected by 2100. Meeting all long-term pledges and targets could reduce this to 2.1 °C (1.7 °C to 2.6 °C) (12). Even these optimistic assumptions lead to dangerous Earth system trajectories. Temperatures of more than 2 °C above preindustrial values have not been sustained on Earth’s surface since before the Pleistocene Epoch (or more than 2.6 million years ago) (13).
Quote:
Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5, now SSP5-8.5), the highest emissions pathway used in IPCC scenarios, most closely matches cumulative emissions to date (25). This may not be the case going forward, because of falling prices of renewable energy and policy responses (26). Yet, there remain reasons for caution. For instance, there is significant uncertainty over key variables such as energy demand and economic growth. Plausibly higher economic growth rates could make RCP8.5 35% more likely (27).
The entire paper deserves close examination, but I'll end this post by linking the references in the above excerpts.
  • 11 P. R. Liu, A. E. Raftery, Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 °C target. Commun. Earth Environ. 2, 1–29 (2021).
    12Climate Action Tracker, 2100 warming projections. Climate Action Tracker. Accessed 1 March 2022. https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures.
    13M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, R. Calov, V. Brovkin, Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal. Sci. Adv. 5, eaav7337 (2019).
    25C. R. Schwalm, S. Glendon, P. B. Duffy, RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 117, 19656–19657 (2020).
    26Z. Hausfather, G. P. Peters, Emissions—The ‘business as usual’ story is misleading. Nature 577, 618–620 (2020).
    27P. Christensen, K. Gillingham, W. Nordhaus, Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 115, 5409–5414 (2018).

PS I may have alternative open-source links for some of these reference links if anyone has trouble accessing these references.
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Old 14th August 2022, 01:50 PM   #533
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Regarding Antarctic Ice loss

PLOS (Public Library of Science) has an article out regarding this same topic called "The things we take for granted." (https://allmodels.plos.org/the-things-we-take-for-granted/ )
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Old 19th August 2022, 07:05 AM   #534
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Federal study: New climate law to slice carbon pollution 40%

Hardly a full solution to the issues at hand, even if the projections end up as reality, but it's a heck of a lot better than nothing.
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Old 19th August 2022, 04:25 PM   #535
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Originally Posted by Trakar View Post
I think we might have been over-estimating where the warming line is - it might be that 2o is way too much, because of the concentration of heat in the cities, and the proliferation of severe weather events.

This year, we've seen all kinds of heat and drought records broken across the NH, while concurrently having the worst flooding in history in the south. I'd love to see a reliable study of the growth of severe weather events this century, because the way the climate is already - and the sea turtles are a guide - makes me think we're already in an extremely dangerous phase.
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Old 28th August 2022, 10:03 AM   #536
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I think we might have been over-estimating where the warming line is - it might be that 2o is way too much, because of the concentration of heat in the cities, and the proliferation of severe weather events.

This year, we've seen all kinds of heat and drought records broken across the NH, while concurrently having the worst flooding in history in the south. I'd love to see a reliable study of the growth of severe weather events this century, because the way the climate is already - and the sea turtles are a guide - makes me think we're already in an extremely dangerous phase.
The analysis is always conservative, that is the nature of science publication and journalism in general. The reality that unfolds is almost always much more jarring in expression of the full implications of what the science indicates.
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Old 28th August 2022, 02:13 PM   #537
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I think we might have been over-estimating where the warming line is - it might be that 2o is way too much, because of the concentration of heat in the cities, and the proliferation of severe weather events.

This year, we've seen all kinds of heat and drought records broken across the NH, while concurrently having the worst flooding in history in the south. I'd love to see a reliable study of the growth of severe weather events this century, because the way the climate is already - and the sea turtles are a guide - makes me think we're already in an extremely dangerous phase.
These types of thing are accounted for in bot the models and in the temperature datasets. The biggest problem with the estimate of 2 deg warming is that it's based on emissions reductions that are not happening yet. The business as usual scenarios are much worse than 2 deg C.
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Old 31st August 2022, 08:43 AM   #538
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
These types of thing are accounted for in bot the models and in the temperature datasets. The biggest problem with the estimate of 2 deg warming is that it's based on emissions reductions that are not happening yet. The business as usual scenarios are much worse than 2 deg C.
...well, that, and the fact that even the hoped for reductions are based upon very conservative estimates of the warming effects that they are designed to adjust/adapt to.
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Old 31st August 2022, 04:06 PM   #539
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7 Tipping Points of Near-Term Concern

("Points of No Return" - https://grist.org/climate-tipping-po...boreal-forest/)

This article discussed and explored a commentary in Nature (27 November 2019) titled "Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against". The Tipping points discussed were divided into 3 categories (Sea, Ice, and Land). The Sea tipping points looked at were focused upon the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the fate of the oceans' Coral Reef systems. The Ice tipping points looked at were the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Antarctica Ice Sheets (particular focus on West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea system and the Thwaites Glacier). There were 3 Land tipping points looked at, and these are the thawing of the Northern Hemisphere's permafrost, the fate of the Boreal forests, and the transition of the Amazon Rainforest.

After discussing the issues with each of these tipping points, to include the primary problem being that we are approaching (if not having already tipped some of these (now or in the near future) into) irreversibility of all of these systems simultaneously, the discussion shifts to how we might still achieve some progress in in slowing or stopping these systems from their current race toward collapse. This might be achieved through finally taking ownership of ownership for our societal emissions.

Good informative read, that helps understand many of the problems we face if we don't address our climate forcing activities while ending on a high point by discussing how we have achieved some extremely difficult societal goals in the past, and how we might yet be able achieve a truly remarkable planetary-scale reformation of behavior if we individually and jointly commit to these as necessary efforts for the survival of our nations, economies and quite possibly our species.
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Old 5th September 2022, 05:20 AM   #540
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Originally Posted by Trakar View Post
while ending on a high point by discussing how we have achieved some extremely difficult societal goals in the past, and how we might yet be able achieve a truly remarkable planetary-scale reformation of behavior
We will, but only after our noses have been well and truly rubbed in it. And 'conservatives' will be wailing "If only we had known what the effects of global warming would be - why didn't you tell us?".
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Old 6th September 2022, 10:10 PM   #541
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Originally Posted by Trakar View Post
More on Antarctica this week - Thwaites Glacier is "holding on by its fingernails".

News: https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/300681...scientists-say

Report at Nature Geoscience: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-022-01019-9
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Old 8th September 2022, 10:03 PM   #542
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
We will, but only after our noses have been well and truly rubbed in it. And 'conservatives' will be wailing "If only we had known what the effects of global warming would be - why didn't you tell us?".
unfortunately this is a major contributor to my dismal outlook regarding the fate of our nation, global civilization, ...and quite possibly, our species.
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Old 12th September 2022, 12:41 AM   #543
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Then there is this:

https://citizenfreepress.com/breakin...go-as-planned/
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Old 12th September 2022, 04:00 AM   #544
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Originally Posted by Bubba View Post
An interview with a conspiracy nutjob and climate change denier who denied climate change? I'd say it went exactly as planned.
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Old 12th September 2022, 04:11 AM   #545
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Originally Posted by Trakar View Post
unfortunately this is a major contributor to my dismal outlook regarding the fate of our nation, global civilization, ...and quite possibly, our species.
Yes
Obviously China and India are entitled to raise expectations of their citizens to become deliberate tourists.
Norway will be carbon neutral by 2030 locally but have a trillion dollar sovereign trust now and exported 200 billion oil and gas calendar year.

Trakar, your view seems cast in stone.
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Old 12th September 2022, 11:10 AM   #546
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Originally Posted by ohms View Post
An interview with a conspiracy nutjob and climate change denier who denied climate change? I'd say it went exactly as planned.


Really? I did not hear him deny climate change. Climate changes. Often. He described a cycle of change the newsreader did not want to acknowledge.

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Old 12th September 2022, 11:33 AM   #547
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Originally Posted by Bubba View Post
Really? I did not hear him deny climate change. Climate changes. Often. He described a cycle of change the newsreader did not want to acknowledge.
Rather than spamming yet another link, why don't you give a summary of the contents, and explain why you felt the need to post it?
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Old 12th September 2022, 01:01 PM   #548
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Originally Posted by Bubba View Post
Really? I did not hear him deny climate change. Climate changes. Often. He described a cycle of change the newsreader did not want to acknowledge.
Let me guess: he pointed out that climate changes naturally, and insisted that means that the current climate change is also natural.

Which is like pointing out that forest fires happen naturally, and insisting that means that the fire currently raging in a forest where there hasn't been any lightning for months, and where a bunch of kids were seen fooling around with matches at the exact time and place it started, is also natural.

ETA: clicked on the link out of curiosity to see if I was right and it's an interview with Piers Corbyn!
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Old 12th September 2022, 07:19 PM   #549
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Originally Posted by Bubba View Post
Really? I did not hear him deny climate change. Climate changes. Often. He described a cycle of change the newsreader did not want to acknowledge.
How "often" do you think climate changes?
Do you think climate changes due to magic or due to physical reasons scientists can study and understand?
When climate does change, how much do you think it changes?
When climate does change, how quickly do you think it changes?
When climate does change, how much do you think it changes the world?
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Old 12th September 2022, 08:52 PM   #550
Pixel42
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I was mildly amused to hear Corbyn claim at the beginning of that intervew to have predicted this summer would be hot. Some years ago, on a predecessor of this thread, I tested his claim of 80% accuracy by following ten of his predictions, kindly shared by a cheerleader of his, over the course of a year; just two proved right, and that was me being generous. One of his predictions was that Britain's spring would be cooler than average that year, and it was actually the warmest ever recorded (and I'm talking about the 350 year Central England record here). There's a famous prediction of his from towards the end of the so-called pause in the warming, around 2009, that the world would cool from then on.
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Old Yesterday, 09:51 AM   #551
The Atheist
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If you ever wondered why people don't take climate science seriously...

https://www.greenpeace.org/internati...eace-reaction/
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Old Yesterday, 12:12 PM   #552
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I never wondered at all..

Those who could do something, like stop buying plastic, don't really care...
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Old Yesterday, 07:21 PM   #553
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Renewable Energy Company Cuts Down Primary Forest

Quote:
A company that has received billions of pounds in green energy subsidies from UK taxpayers is cutting down environmentally-important forests, a BBC Panorama investigation has found.

Drax runs Britain's biggest power station, which burns millions of tonnes of imported wood pellets - which is classed as renewable energy.

The BBC has discovered some of the wood comes from primary forests in Canada.

The company says it only uses sawdust and waste wood.

Panorama analysed satellite images, traced logging licences and used drone filming to prove its findings. Reporter Joe Crowley also followed a truck from a Drax mill to verify it was picking up whole logs from an area of precious forest.

Ecologist Michelle Connolly told Panorama the company was destroying forests that had taken thousands of years to develop.

"It's really a shame that British taxpayers are funding this destruction with their money. Logging natural forests and converting them into pellets to be burned for electricity, that is absolutely insane," she said.
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