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Tags Coronavirus , vaccination , vaccines

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Old 15th September 2022, 07:54 AM   #2401
marting
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The Lancet Covid-19 Commission

The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic provides a comprehensive investigation, analysis, and response to COVID-19.

The full report is a downloadable, 57 pg, 12MB pdf. It includes a history of the pandemic that is well worth reading.
https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/covid19

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...585-9/fulltext
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Old 15th September 2022, 08:40 AM   #2402
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic provides a comprehensive investigation, analysis, and response to COVID-19.

The full report is a downloadable, 57 pg, 12MB pdf. It includes a history of the pandemic that is well worth reading.
https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/covid19

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...585-9/fulltext
Thanks for that. It will be a great reference resource, and its point early on about prosociality is excellent.
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Old 15th September 2022, 10:18 AM   #2403
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic provides a comprehensive investigation, analysis, and response to COVID-19.

The full report is a downloadable, 57 pg, 12MB pdf. It includes a history of the pandemic that is well worth reading.
https://www.thelancet.com/commissions/covid19

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...585-9/fulltext
Good spot!

That is an outstanding piece of clear and telling English, with the pandemic nailed from every angle.

I love their opening paragraph:

Quote:
This staggering death toll is both a profound tragedy and a massive global failure at multiple levels. Too many governments have failed to adhere to basic norms of institutional rationality and transparency, too many people—often influenced by misinformation—have disrespected and protested against basic public health precautions, and the world's major powers have failed to collaborate to control the pandemic.
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Old 21st September 2022, 11:40 AM   #2404
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Letter to NEJM on waning effectiveness of the vaccine in kids

I brought up this Letter to the Editor of NEJM on another thread. "Here, we report on the protection conferred by the BNT162b2 vaccine and by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection against infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19)–related hospitalization and death in children 5 to 11 years of age." My question is why some of the graphs dip below zero within Figures 1A and 1B.
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Old 21st September 2022, 12:20 PM   #2405
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Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides View Post
I brought up this Letter to the Editor of NEJM on another thread. "Here, we report on the protection conferred by the BNT162b2 vaccine and by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection against infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19)–related hospitalization and death in children 5 to 11 years of age." My question is why some of the graphs dip below zero within Figures 1A and 1B.
Qatar studied a large portion of their population through Sept. 2021. Similar results to the children's sample from North Carolina but somewhat slower efficacy drop. In the Qatar study efficacy against assymptomatic infection became negative at and above 6 months after vax.

The newer variants may account for the difference.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114114

I commented on this after observing their preprint had clamped negative efficacy at 0. That was fixed.
http://www.internationalskeptics.com...3&postcount=70

As for how efficacy against infection could become negative, one theory is that some degree of imprinting (original antigenic sin) is occuring where the immune system initially responds as if the infection was caused by the original disease/vaccine while the more delayed response continues to protect against severe disease. This would be more apparent with the more recent variants as they have diverged from the virus the vaccines were based on.
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Old 21st September 2022, 08:57 PM   #2406
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Buckle Up. Here comes BA.2.75.2, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1

Fiinally we have some info on new wave threats. These are at very small numbers right now but exhibit significant growth rates. Numbers are too low to estimate severity. Impact should be more predictable in a few weeks. likely waves in a month or two.

See UK charts here:
http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19...ant_comparison


Interesting discussion of how imprinting (original antigenic sin) is driving rapid SARS-CoV-2 evolution in this new preprint. Unusual paper in that it covers very recent Omicron variants.

Imprinted SARS-CoV-2 humoral immunity induces convergent Omicron RBD evolution
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...09.15.507787v1

Abstract portion:
Quote:
Continuous evolution of Omicron has led to numerous subvariants that exhibits growth advantage over BA.5. Such rapid and simultaneous emergence of variants with enormous advantages is unprecedented. Despite their rapidly divergent evolutionary courses, mutations on their receptor-binding domain (RBD) converge on several hotspots, including R346, R356, K444, L452, N460K and F486. The driving force and destination of such convergent evolution and its impact on humoral immunity established by vaccination and infection remain unclear. Here we demonstrate that these convergent mutations can cause striking evasion of convalescent plasma, including those from BA.5 breakthrough infection, and existing antibody drugs, including Evusheld and Bebtelovimab. BA.2.75.2 is the most evasive strain tested, and only BQ.1.1 could compare.
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Old 21st September 2022, 10:57 PM   #2407
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Fiinally we have some info on new wave threats.
Doesn't look much of an issue immediately. The growth of 1.1 is very high, but only against a fast-falling BA5, so it may look a lot worse in a graph than it actually is. Infections are now down 99.7% from their peak, so a rate double the current number doesn't really matter.

We had the 2.75 arrive here and it made no headway against the massive BA5 sweeping the country.

Worth keeping an eye on, but not looking too bad.

I think the big danger is yet another major shift through recombination. Without that happening, I think the omicrons are a fizzer.
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Old 25th September 2022, 02:58 PM   #2408
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Doesn't look much of an issue immediately. The growth of 1.1 is very high, but only against a fast-falling BA5, so it may look a lot worse in a graph than it actually is. Infections are now down 99.7% from their peak, so a rate double the current number doesn't really matter.

We had the 2.75 arrive here and it made no headway against the massive BA5 sweeping the country.

Worth keeping an eye on, but not looking too bad.

I think the big danger is yet another major shift through recombination. Without that happening, I think the omicrons are a fizzer.

Tom W. is probably the most on top of making estimates for each country with reasonable levels of genomic measurements. Great stats knowledge and coder to boot.

This is the best twitter site I've run across with a focus on variant extrapolation.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/stat...70401512128515
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Old 25th September 2022, 04:10 PM   #2409
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Tom W. is probably the most on top of making estimates for each country with reasonable levels of genomic measurements. Great stats knowledge and coder to boot.

This is the best twitter site I've run across with a focus on variant extrapolation.
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/stat...70401512128515
Cheers - good info.

This is interesting:

Quote:
These mutations have been studied by @jbloom_lab and @yunlong_cao and were shown to allow the variants carrying them to evade BA.5 induced immunity. This makes it likely that these variants may take off really on a global scale.
I see a few countries showing an uptick in cases. Just how far and how fast things change is unknown, but it's not showing explosive growth yet.

The question we need the answer to is how the bivalent vaccines perform against the newest variants. They should work, but time will tell.
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Old 25th September 2022, 04:23 PM   #2410
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Nextstrain shows it's really just india at the moment .. so global data are irrelevant at the moment.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/g...min=2022-09-01

I was not able to find reliable India numbers though ..
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Old 25th September 2022, 05:17 PM   #2411
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I was not able to find reliable India numbers though ..


Good luck with that. India has been lying through Modi's teeth all the way.
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Old 25th September 2022, 07:30 PM   #2412
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post


Good luck with that. India has been lying through Modi's teeth all the way.
Another country with high BA.2.75 ratio is Australia. And it's more or less stable at the moment.
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Old 26th September 2022, 03:07 PM   #2413
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Another country with high BA.2.75 ratio is Australia. And it's more or less stable at the moment.
The number of new cases in Australia has been going down for several weeks. Ditto to the number of people in hospital.
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Old 28th September 2022, 06:06 AM   #2414
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Here in Japan, the 7th wave is petering out, but shows signs of leveling off at a higher plateau than before.

I'll take the first 6 months of the year as the 6th wave, and from July 1st onward as the 7th wave.

From Jan. 1st through June 30th, there were 7,323,722 infections and 12,888 deaths. This gives a rough case fatality rate of 0.18%.
Since July 1st, there have been 11,880,444 infections (more than half of all infections since the beginning of the pandemic have occurred here in the last 3 months). 20.9 million cases, 11.8 million since July 1st, and 19.2 million since Jan. 1st.
Since July 1st, there have been 13,278 additional deaths. This gives a rough case fatality rate of 0.11%. So cases are up, but CFR is about 39% lower. But the bottom line is still more deaths in a 3-month period than in the 6-month period that preceded it.

As far as active cases, they are down from almost 2 million at the peak to near half a million now, and daily average deaths are down by about two thirds from the peak. The number of critically ill is also down by around two thirds.
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Old 28th September 2022, 08:03 AM   #2415
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
......
Since July 1st, there have been 13,278 additional deaths. This gives a rough case fatality rate of 0.11%. So cases are up, but CFR is about 39% lower. But the bottom line is still more deaths in a 3-month period than in the 6-month period that preceded it.

As far as active cases, they are down from almost 2 million at the peak to near half a million now, and daily average deaths are down by about two thirds from the peak. The number of critically ill is also down by around two thirds.
How is the vaccination rate? Are most people vaccinated? Is there any resistance? Have the people who are dying generally been vaccinated?
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Old 28th September 2022, 11:06 AM   #2416
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Cases are rising again in the UK; from ZOE Covid symptom study data:

https://imgur.com/bXVio0k
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Old 28th September 2022, 11:55 AM   #2417
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
Cases are rising again in the UK; from ZOE Covid symptom study data:

https://imgur.com/bXVio0k
Kids gone back to school? people going back to work?
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Old 28th September 2022, 01:48 PM   #2418
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
How is the vaccination rate? Are most people vaccinated? Is there any resistance? Have the people who are dying generally been vaccinated?
According to Google, 81.7% of the population is fully vaccinated. I don't know what percentage are up to date on their booster though. I'm not aware of any data source that shows whether the people dying have been vaccinated or not.
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Old Today, 02:12 PM   #2419
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A new research study claims, based on data from Florida and Ohio, that the excess death rate from the beginning of the pandemic in the USA up until vaccines became generally available was statistically equal between Democrats and Republicans but after vaccines became generally available Republicans had a higher excess death rate than did Democrats. The lower the vaccination rate in a county was, the greater the difference between Democrats and Republicans.

Quote:
We estimate substantially higher excess death rates for registered Republicans when compared to registered Democrats, with almost all of the difference concentrated in the period after vaccines were widely available in our study states. Overall, the excess death rate for Republicans was 5.4 percentage points (pp), or 76%, higher than the excess death rate for Democrats. Post- vaccines, the excess death rate gap between Republicans and Democrats widened from 1.6 pp (22% of the Democrat excess death rate) to 10.4 pp (153% of the Democrat excess death rate).
https://www.nber.org/system/files/wo...512/w30512.pdf
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