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Old 30th October 2021, 08:33 PM   #41
marting
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This is why I'm not getting a fllu vaccine. Yet. Ve for flu vaccines wanes quickly.

Waning of Influenza Vaccine Protection: Exploring the Trade-offs of Changes in Vaccination Timing Among Older Adults

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/70/8/1550/5525379

I'm tracking the CDC surveilance data to decide when or if I'll get a flu vaccine.
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Old 30th October 2021, 08:37 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
I'm expecting a nasty flu season next year. It won't hit us badly until about April/May, which is going to be long enough after lockdowns and precautions have been lifted that most people will have forgotten what it was like. I'll definitely be getting my shot as soon as it is available.
I completely agree with your timing estimate if, indeed, we have a flu season. It's in competiton with wamer weather. I'm uncertain whether we will even have a flu season.
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Old 1st November 2021, 02:03 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
Most masks don't filter much air, they just catch droplets.Most masks I see aren't filtering out Covid that's for sure.
The Covid is mostly in those droplets though.
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Old 1st November 2021, 11:58 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
Wouldn't we all. I'd rather they were stuck in your mask than floating towards me right now though.
The point is that outside, I am highly unlikely to hit anyone with whatever droplets and particulate I exhale. The best option is to let it all be carried away or at least much diluted in the wind. It's not a good idea to retain much of the virus I exhale in my mask.

Originally Posted by mgidm86 View Post
Try changing your mask. Most masks don't filter much air, they just catch droplets.Most masks I see aren't filtering out Covid that's for sure.
I generally use "FFP2" masks, that's the best among the economically feasible and easily obtainable masks here. And that is part of the problem, because they do filter air, they retain much of the particulate and keep it near my face, and feed microbes. I should change them pretty often, but that gets expensive. I have like half a dozen masks that I use in rotation, letting the ones I don't use catch some sun and several days to degrade at least some of the bugs. And replace those that become visibly dirty, or mechanically unfit.
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Old 16th November 2021, 11:39 AM   #45
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A small increase in flu reports for 5-24 y/o group. No increase in other groups. Looks like school spread. New Mexico shows the most but quite low so far. Well below normal for this time of year.
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Old 16th November 2021, 07:00 PM   #46
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Large flu breakout at Uinversity of Michigan.

https://record.umich.edu/articles/cd...ses-on-campus/

Quote:
Since the first positive case on Oct. 6, there have been 528 cases of influenza diagnosed at the University Health Service, with 77.1 percent of cases in unvaccinated individuals. UHS officials saw increases in cases of influenza the past two weeks, with 313 cases (37 percent test positivity) the week of Nov. 8 and 198 cases (27.2 percent test positivity) the previous week.
And UofM has indoor mask requirements.
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Old 16th November 2021, 07:26 PM   #47
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I assume these are all laboratory-confirmed?

Maybe I'm mis-reading something, but isn't that more than the CDC reported for the entire country?
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Old 16th November 2021, 08:36 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I assume these are all laboratory-confirmed?

Maybe I'm mis-reading something, but isn't that more than the CDC reported for the entire country?
CDC gets data from locales that analyze and report flu. It's a subset. Here's the most recent CDC statement on Week 44.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

Among 102 A(H3N2) viruses reported for week 44, 68 (66.7%) were reported by Michigan. The majority of influenza positives reported from Michigan can be linked to a single outbreak among young adults. Additionally, during week 44, a large backfill of data from previous weeks was received from Region 3
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Old 16th November 2021, 08:44 PM   #49
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Oh, and I got my flu shot on Saturday. The timing may be early, but I'm traveling to the US for the next two weeks and visiting my family for Thanksgiving, so I got mine one week before my flight. I'm planning around my own schedule more than the virus's schedule.
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Old 22nd December 2021, 06:40 PM   #50
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The flu is definitely back this year, at least in the US.

The predominant strain seems to be H3N2.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/flu_by_age_virus.html

If anyone hasn't had their shot yet and plans to get one, it might be a good idea to hurry up and get yours.
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Old 22nd December 2021, 06:51 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
The flu is definitely back this year, at least in the US.

The predominant strain seems to be H3N2.
Appears to be a mismatch to the vaccine this year - This years flu vaccine major mismatch

Seeing some uptick in my area with around 5% of tests coming back positive. Definitely an increase in testing as well, which means doctors are seeing a lot more circulate even with covid ramping up.
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Old 22nd December 2021, 07:30 PM   #52
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It's started to increase but slowed down in the last week. Interaction with Omicron fear. People wearing masks almost everywhere in comparison to 4 weeks ago. Will drive the low flu rates down. At least in this area. Still very low historically, and particularly where I live in Calif.

I was getting close to getting a flu vax but have decided that the most risky time is likely to be delayed until March or April. I'm basing the vax timing on the rapid decrease in efficacy of Flu vaccines. Peaks a few weeks after vax and pretty much gone in 4 months. I want to maximize it with where I anticipate the peak to be.

My current target is Feb. Subject to change based on the weekly rates here.

There are places in the USA where i would get it right now.
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Old 22nd December 2021, 07:32 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by rdwight View Post
Appears to be a mismatch to the vaccine this year - This years flu vaccine major mismatch

Seeing some uptick in my area with around 5% of tests coming back positive. Definitely an increase in testing as well, which means doctors are seeing a lot more circulate even with covid ramping up.
Yeah. That's unfortunate. Might change later on in the season.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/flu_by_age_virus.html
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Old 5th February 2022, 12:05 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
It's started to increase but slowed down in the last week. Interaction with Omicron fear. People wearing masks almost everywhere in comparison to 4 weeks ago. Will drive the low flu rates down. At least in this area. Still very low historically, and particularly where I live in Calif.

I was getting close to getting a flu vax but have decided that the most risky time is likely to be delayed until March or April. I'm basing the vax timing on the rapid decrease in efficacy of Flu vaccines. Peaks a few weeks after vax and pretty much gone in 4 months. I want to maximize it with where I anticipate the peak to be.

My current target is Feb. Subject to change based on the weekly rates here.

There are places in the USA where i would get it right now.

Flu increased somewhat through Dec but the NPIs in response to Omicron have had a strong effect on decreasing flu rates and they are now at minimal levels and dropping throughout most of the USA. Currently under 10% of what is usual this time of year.

Hard to say what sort of pickup might occur after Omicron but I'm putting off my flu shot for the above reasons (rapid waning) once again. Maybe March or April.
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Old 11th March 2022, 09:24 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Flu increased somewhat through Dec but the NPIs in response to Omicron have had a strong effect on decreasing flu rates and they are now at minimal levels and dropping throughout most of the USA. Currently under 10% of what is usual this time of year.

Hard to say what sort of pickup might occur after Omicron but I'm putting off my flu shot for the above reasons (rapid waning) once again. Maybe March or April.
Flu continued to drop and is now plateaued at very low levels. Residual covid NPIs and warming weather likely factors.

However, lower population immunity will increase flu risks going forward as people increase socialization with fewer NPIs. This from somewhat lower flu vax rates this year and lack of material levels of flu infections in the last 2 years. Unkown how that will play out in the next several months.
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Old 11th March 2022, 09:37 PM   #56
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Bad luck mitigated by good luck.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...?ocid=msedgntp

Quote:
This winter’s flu vaccine was a particularly bad match for the most common influenza strain in circulation, a new analysis from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found. Thankfully, the flu season was much milder than usual for the second year in a row, as ongoing covid-19 precautions likely blunted the spread of flu as well.
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Old 28th March 2022, 03:47 PM   #57
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To date Flu continued to decline and is now slightly upticking. Still only about 10% of the peaks during typical seasons.
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Old 28th March 2022, 04:28 PM   #58
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So I guess we can now say with pretty high confidence that the answer to the title of the thread is no.

That’s two years in a row where “experts” suggested that flu season would be worse than usual and the opposite was the case.
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Old 28th March 2022, 06:05 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
So I guess we can now say with pretty high confidence that the answer to the title of the thread is no.

That’s two years in a row where “experts” suggested that flu season would be worse than usual and the opposite was the case.
Well, were it not for Omicron, which reared its ugly head in November and started to influence behavior materially in late Dec., I suspect they would have been right about this year.

What I'm looking for is whether Rt increased because of the truncated 2019-20 season and non-existent 2020-2021 season as seasonal infections produce some small amount of additional immunity that carries over. That said, flu is highly seasonal and we are moving into that period where it tends to decline. So, yeah, my guess at this point is no significant flu until Fall. Might well be larger than normal then unless some new C19 variant intervenes.
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Old 28th March 2022, 06:51 PM   #60
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Well, if they predict a severe flu season every year, eventually they will probably be right. But the Boy Who Cried Wolf was eventually right too. It's just that nobody believed him any more after too many false alarms.
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Old 15th September 2022, 07:37 AM   #61
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US update. Flu, as expected, did decline over summer. Anticipating a fairly significant flu season like AU has had as we go into fall/winter. Will probably compete with BA.5/BA.4.6 if those show seasonal increases like Flu. However, flu levels are still quite low. Now's the time to monitor closely.

Flu vaccines are expected to be quite effective if we get the types that AU got, which is the usual pattern.
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Old 15th September 2022, 08:24 AM   #62
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And I'll be getting my flu jab on Saturday. Ceteris paribus, as we say down the pub.
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Old 15th September 2022, 10:40 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
US update. Flu, as expected, did decline over summer. Anticipating a fairly significant flu season like AU has had as we go into fall/winter. Will probably compete with BA.5/BA.4.6 if those show seasonal increases like Flu. However, flu levels are still quite low. Now's the time to monitor closely.

Flu vaccines are expected to be quite effective if we get the types that AU got, which is the usual pattern.
Oi, there are countries other than the Great Southern Desert in the southern hemisphere pal!

Like you, I watched our data closely and hit the vaccine at exactly the right time - just as it starts to spread, because when it spreads, it went like covid, with massive disruption to workplaces, schools, and the medical system, which got crushed. In the space of a couple of weeks we went from not much 'flu to more people in hospital with 'flu than covid. Coinciding with minimal covid restrictions, influenza took advantage and exploded.

And we have excellent evidence the vaccine is highly protective, with very few breakthroughs. On a personal note, my daughter hadn't bothered with the vaccine and copped a beautiful dose, while her sensible fiance, who had been vaccinated, didn't catch it from her.

The pandemic has been fascinating for the side-effects as other diseases reduced in concert with the covid measures. Every seasonal virus had been kept out of NZ for 2 winters, along with covid, and when they finally hit, immunity was low and serious illness was high.
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