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Old 15th August 2022, 03:00 PM   #41
Gord_in_Toronto
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Did you notice the date on that? That's the event we just discussed. See Shemp's post above.
Obviously I did not. My bad.

Wrong year. It showed up in my newsfeed today from a site I could not access so I just searched for the original paper.

Still waiting then. :sad:
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Old 18th August 2022, 01:18 PM   #42
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Once bitten, twice shy.
I will remain very skeptical about any practical fusion until the first plant opens, given all the dissapointments we have had in the past.
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Old 19th August 2022, 06:21 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto View Post
Wrong year. It showed up in my newsfeed today from a site I could not access so I just searched for the original paper.
Yeah. It came back in the news because other scientists have "confirmed" the result. I put confirmed in scare quotes because the group that confirmed it uses the same misleading terminology as the original claim.
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Old 19th August 2022, 09:24 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Yeah. It came back in the news because other scientists have "confirmed" the result. I put confirmed in scare quotes because the group that confirmed it uses the same misleading terminology as the original claim.
You'll love this one then:

Ignition confirmed in a nuclear fusion experiment for the first time Dated 11 August 2022

Quote:
A 2021 experiment achieved the landmark milestone of nuclear fusion ignition, which data analysis has now confirmed Ė but attempts to recreate it over the last year havenít been able to reach ignition again
(Highlighting mine.)
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Old 19th August 2022, 10:08 AM   #45
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Right. That's the confirmation I just referred to. I mentioned the highlighted part in post 26.

Last edited by RecoveringYuppy; 19th August 2022 at 10:11 AM.
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Old 29th August 2022, 01:06 PM   #46
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I persist. After all I have been waiting since sometime just before before 1960.

Nuclear fusion power inches closer to reality

Quote:
Scientists say, yet again, that nuclear fusion is a few years away. Are they right this time?
No new technical progress but more funding will (may) be available.
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Old 29th August 2022, 01:15 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by Article just cited
Scientists say, yet again, that nuclear fusion is a few years away. Are they right this time?
But they base that on this:

Originally Posted by Article just cited
Scientists are mere years from getting more energy out of fusion reactions than the energy required to create them, they said.
But that is based an entirely misleading definition of what "energy required to create" them means. The definitions are so wrong they might as well just say we've achieved fusion already.
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Old 29th August 2022, 01:49 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
But they base that on this:



But that is based an entirely misleading definition of what "energy required to create" them means. The definitions are so wrong they might as well just say we've achieved fusion already.
I can almost visualize the engineering issues in getting any useful energy out of any of the machines proposed. But not quite.

I'm still getting over my disappointment that Fleischmann and Pons were such terrible scientists.
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Old 30th August 2022, 12:10 AM   #49
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I see very little in that article that makes me think practical fusion power will be a reality by the end of the 2030s.

But I hope I'm wrong about that.
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Old 13th September 2022, 03:27 PM   #50
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Some people have more faith than I do.

Why Private Billions Are Flowing Into Fusion

From Bloomberg
Quote:
Jul 14, 2022 As the world searches for a way to avoid climate catastrophe, dozens of fusion startups are putting billions of dollars into the risky quest for unlimited clean power.

You could invest here (they are really close): https://www.helionenergy.com/

And they have already raised $2.2B!! Helion secures $2.2B to commercialize fusion energy
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Old 14th September 2022, 12:31 AM   #51
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I think there's reason to be cautiously optimistic.

But it turns out that fusion is actually really hard when you're not a miasma of incandescent plasma. We'll get there in many, many tiny steps, each of which will be a "breakthrough".
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Old 14th September 2022, 02:41 AM   #52
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the fundamental question is: do we want another source of energy that is extremely investment intensive, requires long construction time and long amortization?
Something that requires long transmission lines?

A useful Fusion power plant would require at least three reactors, one always up, one on maintenance, one on backup.

And any investor might be wary of committing billions to a prototype, when the expectation is that the technology will mature into something much better and cheaper in the next few decades.
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Old 14th September 2022, 09:09 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
the fundamental question is: do we want another source of energy that is extremely investment intensive, requires long construction time and long amortization?
Something that requires long transmission lines?
Something that doesn't run on leftover dinosaur farts?
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Old 14th September 2022, 09:25 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
the fundamental question is: do we want another source of energy that is extremely investment intensive, requires long construction time and long amortization?
Something that requires long transmission lines?

A useful Fusion power plant would require at least three reactors, one always up, one on maintenance, one on backup.
How do you know any of that will be the case?

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
And any investor might be wary of committing billions to a prototype, when the expectation is that the technology will mature into something much better and cheaper in the next few decades.
Hasn't this been true of practically every new technology?

BTW the energy market is literally trillions of dollars.
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Old 14th September 2022, 09:36 AM   #55
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10 to 20 years, come back in 5 years and I'll update based on more current info to 10 to 20 years.
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Old 14th September 2022, 06:31 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
10 to 20 years, come back in 5 years and I'll update based on more current info to 10 to 20 years.
But this is what they've been saying. Fusion has moved out of that category now. Apparently the goal is now a finite time away. We don't know how long, but if you come back in 5 years it will actually be 5 years closer.
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Old 14th September 2022, 06:33 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
But this is what they've been saying. Fusion has moved out of that category now. Apparently the goal is now a finite time away. We don't know how long, but if you come back in 5 years it will actually be 5 years closer.
What does this mean? This would seem to only make sense if up until now all the researchers thought they were working on the impossible.
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Old 14th September 2022, 07:09 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
What does this mean? This would seem to only make sense if up until now all the researchers thought they were working on the impossible.
The old joke about practical nuclear fusion is that it is 40 years away, and always will be.

What I'm saying is that it will no longer always be 40 years away. However far away it is now, let's say 40 years just for the sake of argument, in five years it will be 35 years away.

That's what I'm hearing, anyway. I don't have any particular special sources of knowledge in the field.
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Old 14th September 2022, 07:36 PM   #59
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So just Bullwinkle's hat trick.
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Old 14th September 2022, 07:39 PM   #60
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The joke is dumb anyway. If you're going to wisecrack about people saying X all the time, then your X is supposed to be something that somebody somewhere actually says. Otherwise, the only time that anybody will ever encounter your X is in your lame excuse for a fake wisecrack about it supposedly being said by somebody else who isn't saying it.
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Old 14th September 2022, 07:45 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
The joke is dumb anyway. If you're going to wisecrack about people saying X all the time, then your X is supposed to be something that somebody somewhere actually says. Otherwise, the only time that anybody will ever encounter your X is in your lame excuse for a fake wisecrack about it supposedly being said by somebody else who isn't saying it.
I'm not making it up. This is the top result in my google search:

Why Nuclear Fusion Is Always 30 Years Away (pub. 2016)

Quote:
...Still, even with these steps forward, researchers have said for decades that we're still 30 years away from a working fusion reactor. Even as scientists take steps toward their holy grail, it becomes ever more clear that we donít even yet know what we donít know.
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Old 14th September 2022, 10:11 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
How do you know any of that will be the case?


Hasn't this been true of practically every new technology?

BTW the energy market is literally trillions of dollars.

Government investments/guarantees.

But I would argue that tax payer money would be better spend on decentralized energy sources.
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Old 15th September 2022, 05:41 AM   #63
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That doesn't seem to be an answer.
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Old 15th September 2022, 06:17 AM   #64
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Why not?

Geothermal is something that can be done with today's technology, is mostly location independent and can be adapted to current power plants using thermal energy conversion.

https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-...othermal-power
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Old 15th September 2022, 06:32 AM   #65
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Still not an answer and also going off topic so I think I'll just point out that we don't what form fusion power might take in the future since none have panned out yet.
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Old 15th September 2022, 06:48 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
But this is what they've been saying. Fusion has moved out of that category now. Apparently the goal is now a finite time away. We don't know how long, but if you come back in 5 years it will actually be 5 years closer.
I've been ruined by magazines like Pop Science and Pop Mechanics. Along with flying cars, I'll believe it when I see it. I really hope fusion power is closer, it has the potential to bring a post scarcity future.
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Old 15th September 2022, 07:19 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Still not an answer and also going off topic so I think I'll just point out that we don't what form fusion power might take in the future since none have panned out yet.
At this point, it seems certain that it will either require massive magnets or massive lasers or both.
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Old 18th September 2022, 06:29 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
At this point, it seems certain that it will either require massive magnets or massive lasers or both.
Certainly very cleaver and expensive HTS magnets, but probably not so massive. Companies such as Tokamak Energy at Didcot are starting to get quite a bit of funding for smaller Spherical Tokamaks.

https://www.tokamakenergy.co.uk/
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