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Tags Recep Erdogan , Turkey issues , Turkey politics

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Old 15th March 2017, 11:42 PM   #81
Lukraak_Sisser
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
While I am no fan of Wilders, has he actually given any reason for thinking that anyone who doesn't agree with him would end up dead or in jail or given any reason for thinking he would rule like Putin or Erdogan?
His constant rethorics that only he actually represents the whole country, that all those who disagree with him are not really dutch and the completely autocratic style in which he controls his 'party' by filling it with yes (wo)men and immediatly sacking anyone who disagrees, does not fill one with confidence.

Remember, Erdogan and Putin did not start out like that either, they only openly showed that side by the time they had more power by slowly removing all obstacles after they had the government.
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Old 16th March 2017, 06:22 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
I wonder how Turkey's bid to join the EU is progressing. I can't help thinking that Erdogan could handle things a little better.
He could but I doubt he really wants that.

Beside should Turkey restore the death penalty as Erdogan apparently wants this would result in a full and immediate stop of all negotiations relating to the EU accession.
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Old 16th March 2017, 04:31 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by Lukraak_Sisser View Post
Maybe some, but there is also the fact that no matter how many people always shout they will vote for him, his total lack of any form of plans works against Wilders.

And in the dutch system a Trump like scenario is far harder to get due to the different way our votes are counted. The 'winner takes all' scenario in the US and the UK isn't used here, so it is extremely unlikely a single party will ever get a >50% majority in parliament and they will always need to form a coalition.

And since a coalition means making compromises and Wilders would prefer an Erdogan/Putin like way of governing where everyone who does not agree ends up in jail or with an accident, that is something he never does.
Yeah, the Dutch do not like right wing authoritarian rulers. They have already seen that movie .
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Old 16th March 2017, 06:58 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
While I am no fan of Wilders, has he actually given any reason for thinking that anyone who doesn't agree with him would end up dead or in jail or given any reason for thinking he would rule like Putin or Erdogan?
He is fond of using the orange-white-blue "prince's flag", and the party has adopted the seagull as its symbol - guess which other Dutch political party used those two symbols?

He constantly speaks of "fake judges", "fake prosecutors" and even "fake parliament". He constantly has invective against the "left", especially the Labour party and D66 (think LibDem), he's said that there must be a lot fewer Muslims in the Netherlands. Take for instance this clip at his election meeting 3 years ago on the night of the municipal elections, for which he was eventually convicted for hate mongering:

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I AGREE


The same night, German media drew parallels with Goebbels' Sportpalast speech. Note that he doesn't say how he wants to arrange "less Labour party" or "fewer Moroccans", by either (1) throwing them out of the country, (2) putting them in a concentration camp, (3) sending them to a death camp, or (4) something else, viz. ...

All in all, I see no evidence in his behaviour and his sound bites that he would not send political opponents or select ethnical or religious groups to jail or worse. Coupled with the obvious parallels with earlier fascists, that double negative is too close to comfort for me.
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Old 17th March 2017, 01:30 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Looks as though The Netherlands dodged a bullet in the elections.
I wonder if the chaos in the US had an impact with the idea do you really want to vote a Trump clone into office?
I don't know Wilders enough to say, but I know a politician that works just like him. Calling that guy a Trump clone is a grave insult to Trump.

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Old 21st March 2017, 07:42 PM   #86
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I found out from a British colleague that the Turkish officer whom I worked for back in the 90's is still alive.

But no longer living in Turkey, his homeland.
So, both happy and sad.
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Old 25th March 2017, 04:12 AM   #87
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Sec. Of State Tillerson will be in Ankara next week. I' m sure the extradition of Gülen will be discussed at some level. It becomes a little more interesting in light of recent comments by an ex-CIA director that Michael Flynn discussed it with Turkish officials late last summer while he was an advisor to the Trump campaign. Specifically, it is claimed that Flynn discussed circumventing extradition and just whisking Gülen out of the country. Of course, Flynn is out and it's unlikely in the extreme that Gülen would have been or will ever be whisked awaY. Extradition was never going to happen under Obama, but I wonder if Ankara thinks there's a sliver of a chance under Trump. Personally, I think Erdoğan and his cronies like it better with Gülen in the US. They have their "Snowball" that is always out there, plotting against freedom and democracy (cough, cough) in Turkey. They can continue to threaten, accuse, and seize assets.
Also, what kind of stance will Erdoğan take with Tillerson? The vote on the constitutional changes is coming very soon. He'll want to score points with voters, of course.
My feeling is that the changes will pass, unfortunately.
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Old 25th March 2017, 02:17 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by FenerFan View Post
Sec. Of State Tillerson will be in Ankara next week. I' m sure the extradition of Gülen will be discussed at some level. It becomes a little more interesting in light of recent comments by an ex-CIA director that Michael Flynn discussed it with Turkish officials late last summer while he was an advisor to the Trump campaign. Specifically, it is claimed that Flynn discussed circumventing extradition and just whisking Gülen out of the country.
That's also going to be interesting in light of the recent comments of Bruno Kahl, the chief of the German intelligence service BND, who says there's no evidence at all that Gülen was behind the coup.

(source: Reuters; original interview in German in Der Spiegel).
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Old 26th March 2017, 09:42 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by FenerFan View Post
Sec. Of State Tillerson will be in Ankara next week. I' m sure the extradition of Gülen will be discussed at some level. It becomes a little more interesting in light of recent comments by an ex-CIA director that Michael Flynn discussed it with Turkish officials late last summer while he was an advisor to the Trump campaign. Specifically, it is claimed that Flynn discussed circumventing extradition and just whisking Gülen out of the country. Of course, Flynn is out and it's unlikely in the extreme that Gülen would have been or will ever be whisked awaY. Extradition was never going to happen under Obama, but I wonder if Ankara thinks there's a sliver of a chance under Trump. Personally, I think Erdoğan and his cronies like it better with Gülen in the US. They have their "Snowball" that is always out there, plotting against freedom and democracy (cough, cough) in Turkey. They can continue to threaten, accuse, and seize assets.
Also, what kind of stance will Erdoğan take with Tillerson? The vote on the constitutional changes is coming very soon. He'll want to score points with voters, of course.
My feeling is that the changes will pass, unfortunately.
Is an extradiction of a suspect something Trump can legally organize? I was under the impression this falls under the jurdistiction of the US courts, who do not answer to the president. Not yet in the US anyway.

As far as I know Turkey hasn't even sent the extradiction request yet. Since Flynn talked about how to circimvent that I reckon their evidence of his involvement in rather thin or even non-existent.

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Old 26th March 2017, 02:17 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Is an extradiction of a suspect something Trump can legally organize? I was under the impression this falls under the jurdistiction of the US courts, who do not answer to the president. Not yet in the US anyway.
It has always to be approved by a court. And it can take some time. John Demjanjuk's first extradition took 2.5 years, from Israel's request in October 1983 to the actual extradition in February 1986.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
As far as I know Turkey hasn't even sent the extradiction request yet. Since Flynn talked about how to circimvent that I reckon their evidence of his involvement in rather thin or even non-existent.
Can you spell "extraordinary rendition"? With Trump's and his cronies' love of torture, I can only guess they're a fan of that too. However, I doubt Gülen would put himself in a position where he could easily be kidnapped.
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Old 26th March 2017, 11:34 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
It has always to be approved by a court. And it can take some time. John Demjanjuk's first extradition took 2.5 years, from Israel's request in October 1983 to the actual extradition in February 1986.
And that was for a Nazi mass murderer, not a cleric who allegedly organized a failed coup'd etat that the government abused for their own coup in the next year or so.

Quote:
Can you spell "extraordinary rendition"? With Trump's and his cronies' love of torture, I can only guess they're a fan of that too. However, I doubt Gülen would put himself in a position where he could easily be kidnapped.
With the help of a spell checker, yes I can

There is a major difference between kidnapping (suspected) terrorists abroad and letting dissidents from abroad be kidnapped in your own territory on many counts. For one, you don't do that to allies, only to enemies. US wouldn't be able to secure all that many pro-US dissidents for many decades afterward. It also requires your security services to be complicit in an act and act against their oaths of service, whereas kidnapping terrorists abroad requires your special services to follow their oaths of service. Kidnapping people abroad violates the law of a third country, allowing people to be kidnapped at home violates your own laws and so on.

I really don't see Trump having the capacity to pull it off, not without the lid being blown off very early.

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Old 27th March 2017, 08:32 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Is an extradiction of a suspect something Trump can legally organize? I was under the impression this falls under the jurdistiction of the US courts, who do not answer to the president. Not yet in the US anyway.

As far as I know Turkey hasn't even sent the extradiction request yet. Since Flynn talked about how to circimvent that I reckon their evidence of his involvement in rather thin or even non-existent.

McHrozni
Turkey sent a request at the end of last August and added some new files back in October.
I don't think it's going to go anywhere under Trump since Flynn is long gone. He was their point man in Washington. I would have liked to seen Erdoğan's face when he found out Flynn was toast. All that money down the drain. Still, he and his cronies have shoeboxes full of cash, no big deal.
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Old 27th March 2017, 09:49 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
And that was for a Nazi mass murderer,
Tsk, tsk, Demjanjuk has never been convicted. He died while on appeal in German court.

(I don't believe for a second he was not a camp guard somewhere. He admitted himself he had been trained in Trawniki. He also had listed his place of residence during the war as Sobibor; his explanation why stinks to high heaven).

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
not a cleric who allegedly organized a failed coup'd etat that the government abused for their own coup in the next year or so.
What matters here is that a court case about an extradition request for Gülen will center around the same issue as in Demjanjuk's case: the validity and authenticity of the evidence. In Demjanjuk's case, the papers that "proved" he had worked in Treblinka had been forged by the KGB. A Gülen extradition request may even also go to the Supremes.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
With the help of a spell checker, yes I can
Did I misspell it?

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
There is a major difference between kidnapping (suspected) terrorists abroad and letting dissidents from abroad be kidnapped in your own territory on many counts. For one, you don't do that to allies, only to enemies. US wouldn't be able to secure all that many pro-US dissidents for many decades afterward. It also requires your security services to be complicit in an act and act against their oaths of service, whereas kidnapping terrorists abroad requires your special services to follow their oaths of service. Kidnapping people abroad violates the law of a third country, allowing people to be kidnapped at home violates your own laws and so on.
Kidnapping citizens of a an allied country has not been a problem for the US in the past; see the various UK citizens interned in Gitmo; nor kidnapping them on the soil of an allied country, see, e.g., the case of Khalid El-Masri, a German citizen kidnapped in Macedonia. But yeah, kidnapping them on US soil would be a step up.

Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I really don't see Trump having the capacity to pull it off, not without the lid being blown off very early.
I can only assume that Gülen goes nowhere without a couple of armed guards. He also has thousands if not millions of supporters. Kidnapping him would not go unnoticed.
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Old 27th March 2017, 11:24 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by FenerFan View Post
Turkey sent a request at the end of last August and added some new files back in October.
I don't think it's going to go anywhere under Trump since Flynn is long gone. He was their point man in Washington. I would have liked to seen Erdoğan's face when he found out Flynn was toast. All that money down the drain. Still, he and his cronies have shoeboxes full of cash, no big deal.
Oh it did, I didn't realize it.

I can see Trump working with Putin, he could have something to offer. A lot of hot air to distract the voters from the real problems, maybe praise, maybe cooperation with extremists, maybe hacking the democrats one more time.

Erdogan though? The only thing he has to offer to Trump is another drag on his poll ratings.

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Old 27th March 2017, 11:30 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Tsk, tsk, Demjanjuk has never been convicted. He died while on appeal in German court.

(I don't believe for a second he was not a camp guard somewhere. He admitted himself he had been trained in Trawniki. He also had listed his place of residence during the war as Sobibor; his explanation why stinks to high heaven).
What I'm saying is that the gravity of the crimes in question was far in excess of anything Güllen could be guilty of.

Quote:
Did I misspell it?
I don't think so, but I might

Quote:
Kidnapping citizens of a an allied country has not been a problem for the US in the past; see the various UK citizens interned in Gitmo; nor kidnapping them on the soil of an allied country, see, e.g., the case of Khalid El-Masri, a German citizen kidnapped in Macedonia. But yeah, kidnapping them on US soil would be a step up.
It would be several steps up. It would be a major violation of US constitution to do so. US constitution doesn't apply overseas, which is why the base for such detainees is in Cuba. Ordering your men to violate a law you aren't a subject of is one thing, ordering them to violate a law you are is a tall order.

These are not trivial issues.

Quote:
I can only assume that Gülen goes nowhere without a couple of armed guards. He also has thousands if not millions of supporters. Kidnapping him would not go unnoticed.
To live like that ... horrible. I would also have some sort of insurance somewhere, damning evidence I was kidnapped as to seriously embarrass both US administration and Erdogan, if possible. It would be made public if I disappeared without a trace, but I would promise to keep it secret if nothing happened to me.

It wouldn't have to be anything really big, evidence on a as yet unknown corruption scandal or something like that. Erdogan had his share of those, but finding one just before the crucial referendum or elections that will follow wouldn't be appreciated, I'm sure.

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Old 28th March 2017, 02:09 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Tsk, tsk, Demjanjuk has never been convicted. He died while on appeal in German court.

(I don't believe for a second he was not a camp guard somewhere. He admitted himself he had been trained in Trawniki. He also had listed his place of residence during the war as Sobibor; his explanation why stinks to high heaven).
I think the bigger issue is that they decided to press charges on him for "being a camp guard somewhere" for no other reason that the fact that they had spent 30-odd years thinking he was some other Ivan and didn't want to come up short.

Which is how we get Oskar Gröning somehow being an "accessory" to 300,000 murders for not making enough of an effort to be moved from his accounting job quickly enough I'm hardly sympathetic to the guy and his rather tepid excuses or objection that "the Jews should at least be exterminated within a certain framework", but the charge is absurd, especially considering they waited something like 45 years to charge him. Next up is charging the guys who maintained the trains, I guess. I mean, there was a reason they chose to go after only those who were involved in actually killing someone or in a commanding position - they'd have to charge large portions of German society at one point or another.
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Old 31st March 2017, 10:11 AM   #97
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Tillers came and went. It seems that everything is going to be,the same between the U.S. and Turkey for the near future. Gülen isn't going anywhere and the U.S. will continue to support and fight with the YPG forces in Syria. Those seem to be the big issues discussed. Of course, Erdoğan wanted some movement on those issues, at least on the YPG. I still think Gülen serves Erdoğan's purposes better staying where he is. What do you think?
I give Tillerson credit for staying the course. (Maybe the U.S. can conduct foreign policy, as long as Trump isn't in the room.)
Regardless of the YPG's relationship with the PKK, they are brave and effective fighters and, IMO, the US is doing the right thing by supporting them.
As far as I know, Tillerson didn't push on the human rights problems in Turkey regarding jailed journalists and others swept up in the post-coup attempt arrest frenzy.
All in all, no better and no worse seems to be the outcome.
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Old 15th April 2017, 10:20 PM   #98
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Well, today is the big day. Polls open shortly and there should be a huge turnout. The "yes" vote appears to have a slim lead in the polls, but there are a lot of undecided voters and maybe the polls are a bit skewed because people are afraid to admit to being "no" voters. Anecdotally, I haven't personally talked to anyone that says they will vote "yes." That includes my colleagues down to the chef at my favourite doner shop. The city is literally plastered with banners and huge posters of Erdoğan. The "no" posters are few and far between. Most of them get torn down quickly or those putting them up are harassed. Also, city buses are used free of charge to transport Erdoğan supporters to the numerous rallies that have taken place recently.
Let see what happens. My fingers are crossed.
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Old 15th April 2017, 10:50 PM   #99
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Hayırlı olsun
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Old 16th April 2017, 12:15 AM   #100
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My personal guess is that >90% of the voters will vote yes, Erdogan will immediately implement the new changes and then arrest anyone suggesting that maybe there have been irregularities in the counting of votes.
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Old 16th April 2017, 05:02 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by FenerFan View Post
Well, today is the big day. Polls open shortly and there should be a huge turnout. The "yes" vote appears to have a slim lead in the polls, but there are a lot of undecided voters and maybe the polls are a bit skewed because people are afraid to admit to being "no" voters. Anecdotally, I haven't personally talked to anyone that says they will vote "yes." That includes my colleagues down to the chef at my favourite doner shop. The city is literally plastered with banners and huge posters of Erdoğan. The "no" posters are few and far between. Most of them get torn down quickly or those putting them up are harassed. Also, city buses are used free of charge to transport Erdoğan supporters to the numerous rallies that have taken place recently.
Let see what happens. My fingers are crossed.
The last polls close about two hours from this post of mine, some an hour earlier still. Early, but we won't have to wait until tommorow for results.

Three questions hang:
1. To what extent is NO underperforming in the polls?
2. How will expats vote?
3. What level of vote fraud is taking place to favor YES vote?

We'll have good guesses for each of the three by evening. Yay.

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Old 16th April 2017, 09:14 AM   #102
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Right now the situation doesn't look good for the "no" vote. Partial results show a clear majority of "yes" votes.
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Old 16th April 2017, 09:36 AM   #103
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95% of ballots counted, yes at 51.7%.

http://aa.com.tr/en

No could still squeeze a razor-tight victory, but it's looking like yes will win with about 51% of the vote.

It's a clear moral defeat for Erdogan, who abused the state machinery and the state of emergency to the fullest to favor yes and he will win with almost no margin. Still, a rather bad omen for Turkey.

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Old 16th April 2017, 10:06 AM   #104
Belgian thought
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Binary world, binary results perhaps?
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... er, that's it
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Old 16th April 2017, 03:29 PM   #105
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What is the over/under on how much time it takes for Erdogan to issue a presidential decree that he's president-for-life?
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Last edited by ddt; 16th April 2017 at 03:49 PM.
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Old 16th April 2017, 11:34 PM   #106
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Well, that's that I suppose. The "yes" has won by a very thin margin as you know. There is some controversy regarding some of the ballots. Usually ballots for any election had to have an official stamp from the election commission. However, yesterday after voting had started, the commission announced that unstamped ballots would be accepted. Seems fishy, but there is little chance that a recount will be done. Also, I don't think we'll know how many unstamped ballots were cast. It's a done deal.
It's a bad day for secularism and democracy in Turkey. About half the population is really happy and the other half is pissed off and not a little frightened.
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Old 16th April 2017, 11:44 PM   #107
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And so falls Islam's great democratic hope. No sweat from Trumpsters; good news, in fact. Long live strongmen and their shining smiles.
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Old 16th April 2017, 11:47 PM   #108
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
What is the over/under on how much time it takes for Erdogan to issue a presidential decree that he's president-for-life?
He doesn't need that for a while. He can reign for a decade without shenanigans, and if his second term is ended by an early election one day earlier than it should be, he can run again and rule for another five years.

Near as I can tell, this trick can be repeated multiple times.

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Old 16th April 2017, 11:49 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
What is the over/under on how much time it takes for Erdogan to issue a presidential decree that he's president-for-life?
Originally Posted by FenerFan View Post
Well, that's that I suppose. The "yes" has won by a very thin margin as you know. There is some controversy regarding some of the ballots. Usually ballots for any election had to have an official stamp from the election commission. However, yesterday after voting had started, the commission announced that unstamped ballots would be accepted. Seems fishy, but there is little chance that a recount will be done. Also, I don't think we'll know how many unstamped ballots were cast. It's a done deal.
It's a bad day for secularism and democracy in Turkey. About half the population is really happy and the other half is pissed off and not a little frightened.
Is there amy insight you can offer as to why AKP is so popular? It seems to me they have already reached the point where their popularity would have to wane.

McHrozni
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Old 17th April 2017, 12:54 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Is there amy insight you can offer as to why AKP is so popular? It seems to me they have already reached the point where their popularity would have to wane.

McHrozni
Religious belief has clearly played a role in this result. Turkish nationalism and nostalgia of former Ottoman greatness played a role too.
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Old 17th April 2017, 01:07 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
He doesn't need that for a while. He can reign for a decade without shenanigans, and if his second term is ended by an early election one day earlier than it should be, he can run again and rule for another five years.

Near as I can tell, this trick can be repeated multiple times.

McHrozni
Do you know of any good write-up on more precisely what the constitutional changes entail?
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Old 17th April 2017, 02:37 PM   #112
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A Belgian newspaper reports that Trump has called Erdogan and has congratulated him for his Victory in the referendum.

Apparently this information has been released by the Turkish president office and needs to be confirmed, but if true this is amazing to say the least...
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Old 17th April 2017, 02:40 PM   #113
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
A Belgian newspaper reports that Trump has called Erdogan and has congratulated him for his Victory in the referendum.

Apparently this information has been released by the Turkish president office and needs to be confirmed, but if true this is amazing to say the least...
Flynn would have done that but he got fired.
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Old 17th April 2017, 05:04 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by FenerFan View Post
It's a bad day for secularism and democracy in Turkey. About half the population is really happy and the other half is pissed off and not a little frightened.
First they'll come for the Kurds ...

I have to say I'm finding the future a bloody disappointment.
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Old 17th April 2017, 05:26 PM   #115
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Is there amy insight you can offer as to why AKP is so popular? It seems to me they have already reached the point where their popularity would have to wane.
The way I see it, Erdogan has been using a strategy of tension to increasingly identify the nation with the party - one people, one nation, one state, one party, and what was it? Oh yes, one Leader. There's a fearsome propaganda effort in that direction, painting opponents of the Party as enemies of the people. And of course the rather farcical coup was Erdogan's Reichstag Fire moment.
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Old 18th April 2017, 12:11 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by TubbaBlubba View Post
Do you know of any good write-up on more precisely what the constitutional changes entail?
I can't find the actual text, I'll ask some of the Turks I know if they could provide it. Maybe FenderFan could provide it too, please?

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Old 18th April 2017, 12:59 AM   #117
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Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
First they'll come for the Kurds ...

I have to say I'm finding the future a bloody disappointment.
Messed up any hopes I had of going back any time soon.
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Old 18th April 2017, 04:29 PM   #118
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This article in the Dutch newspaper NRC has the referendum results abroad. In the five countries with the biggest Turkish communities - Belgium, Austria, Netherlands, France, and Germany - "yes" won with comfortable majorities.

Polls among Dutch Turks show that support for "yes" and for Erdogan in general is the strongest among youngsters, the second or third generation who were born here. I'm really flabbergasted why people who were born and raised in a democracy cheer on a dictator and vote in favour of dictatorship.
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Old 18th April 2017, 08:14 PM   #119
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
[url="https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/04/18/belgie-schrikt-van-massaal-ja-door-belgische-turken-8274972-a1554962"] I'm really flabbergasted why people who were born and raised in a democracy cheer on a dictator and vote in favour of dictatorship.
1. Because they are stupid.
2. Their parents taught them such.
3. They see it as "sticking it to the man" where they live, which attitude they learned from the young people where they live.

How are you surprised? I am not surprised at all.
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Old 18th April 2017, 08:29 PM   #120
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CNN confirms Trump congratulated Erdogan, then walked it back with some doublespeak. Reminded people he had a fantastic building in Istanbul.

Merkel, OTOH, cautioned Erdogan to remember he doesn't really have a mandate.
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