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Tags Canada economy , nafta , US-Canada relations

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Old 28th April 2017, 01:46 AM   #121
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
So you're okay with some forms of wealth redistribution, such as forcing the home buyers to support the lumberjacks' jobs?
Given that logger is supposed to be in the logging business, I can see how that would make sense and it's entirely consistent with the conservatives' attitude to subsidy and government interference in the market - they're against it unless it benefits them directly.
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Old 28th April 2017, 02:15 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
So you're okay with some forms of wealth redistribution, such as forcing the home buyers to support the lumberjacks' jobs?
Have you heard GOP voter's retoric on entitlements? They're perfectly fine with them as long as they're going to the white right people.
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Old 28th April 2017, 03:27 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
So you're okay with some forms of wealth redistribution, such as forcing the home buyers to support the lumberjacks' jobs?
One of the reasons we do trade agreements. Its also not the same redistribution your so fond of.
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Old 28th April 2017, 03:29 AM   #124
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Given that logger is supposed to be in the logging business, I can see how that would make sense and it's entirely consistent with the conservatives' attitude to subsidy and government interference in the market - they're against it unless it benefits them directly.
Actually trade agreements are supposed to work for both countries creating fairness and a level playing field is the charge of government. Fascinating that I have to explain these things.
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Old 28th April 2017, 04:03 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Actually trade agreements are supposed to work for both countries creating fairness and a level playing field is the charge of government. Fascinating that I have to explain these things.
The field in the case of lumber is already level. The lower stumpage costs in Canada (a result of more supply and less demand) are offset by higher labour costs.

What the tariff will do (and what you're advocating is):
  • Tilting the playing field in the favour of U.S. producers and their inefficient business models
  • Raise the price of lumber in the U.S.
  • Raise the price of houses in the U.S.
  • Reduce demand for houses in the U.S.
  • Reduce employment in the construction sector

The upshot is that U.S. consumers will be subsidising inefficient U.S. lumber operations and any gain in lumber employment will be more than offset by losses in construction employment.

With "winning" like this, who needs to lose ?
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Old 28th April 2017, 04:29 AM   #126
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I love how the hard right totally misses the very real fact that vibrant capitalist economies depend as much on wealth destruction as on its creation - the old or inefficient giving way to the newer or more efficient. The much lambasted income redistribution they so detest is a feature, not a bug, most especially in the case of estate taxes. Merit is not genetic.
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Old 28th April 2017, 12:49 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Actually trade agreements are supposed to work for both countries creating fairness and a level playing field is the charge of government. Fascinating that I have to explain these things.
No, this is the opposite of what trade deals are supposed to accomplish. The point of free trade deals is to exploit differences in relative efficiencies that goods can be created. Not only is a level playing field not needed it defeats the purpose.
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Old 29th April 2017, 03:14 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by tyr_13 View Post
Whatever helps your rationalize why you're not as good a logger as the Canadians so you can sleep at night. Call them being better and having a functional government that provided education and healthcare to it's citizens a 'subsidy' even.
I don't know about education, since it's also free in the U.S. But I've wondered for years why politicians don't recognize that our job-based health insurance system means that American employers must absorb that cost. Canadian jobs can pay less, because there's no need to include health insurance. I know businesses get a break, but still ... divorcing health insurance from the workplace is bound to simplify things and allow for somewhat lower wages.
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Old 1st May 2017, 08:35 AM   #129
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Mod WarningRemoved a whole swath of off-topic and personalized posts. Knock it off, already.
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Old 1st May 2017, 08:40 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
No, this is the opposite of what trade deals are supposed to accomplish. The point of free trade deals is to exploit differences in relative efficiencies that goods can be created. Not only is a level playing field not needed it defeats the purpose.
Is this from a non US perspective?
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Old 1st May 2017, 10:48 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Is this from a non US perspective?
I have no idea what you are trying to ask. The point of free trade is that both sides benefit from the differences between their markets. Trying to create and “even playing field” defeats the purpose for both sides.
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Old 1st May 2017, 12:01 PM   #132
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
I have no idea what you are trying to ask. The point of free trade is that both sides benefit from the differences between their markets. Trying to create and “even playing field” defeats the purpose for both sides.
Really, that seems to be the major arguments? Seems quite simple to buy things you don't have and sell things others don't have. Why all the issues then?
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Old 1st May 2017, 12:12 PM   #133
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Really, that seems to be the major arguments? Seems quite simple to buy things you don't have and sell things others don't have. Why all the issues then?
There isn’t much the US exports that couldn’t be produced elsewhere...
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Old 1st May 2017, 02:29 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
There isn’t much the US exports that couldn’t be produced elsewhere...
Well then wouldn't that tell you that the US needs to fight to keep its job base, since every other country can do it cheaper?
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Old 1st May 2017, 03:27 PM   #135
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
If Canada sets the price low on federally owned land, what does that do to the price on privately owned land? Or is the vast majority owned by Canada?
None is owned by 'canada'. Natural resources are the jurisdiction of individual provinces. Different provinces have different stumpage fees and ancillary costs for logging companies.

To my knowledge, there is practically no private massmarket logging acreage. The amortization for realizing investment is too long. (centuries)



Originally Posted by logger View Post
The framing costs of a house are a small part of the cost. A small increase in lumber will not raise the price significantly.
According to [National Association of Home Builders], framing is 18% of the cost of a structure's construction. A 25% tariff on lumber would presumably increase the lumber cost by 25%, for an overall increase of just under 5%.

And this is what it comes down to in general. Any individual cost is minor. Labour costs are a trivial portion of the retail price of a Big Mac (last estimate I saw was something like an eighth of a percent). Yet, Republicans seem to say that it's a moral imperative to keep the minimum wage down because even that small cost is allegedly an immoral burden to consumers.
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Old 1st May 2017, 03:29 PM   #136
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Well then wouldn't that tell you that the US needs to fight to keep its job base, since every other country can do it cheaper?
Not sure what you mean by 'it'. There are lots of things that the USA can do cheaper than other countries.

The premise with trade agreements is to let the USA export their most efficient products and services, and import the ones that other countries can create cheaper.

It has been the most important Republican trade model for two or three generations.
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Old 1st May 2017, 03:37 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
I love how the hard right totally misses the very real fact that vibrant capitalist economies depend as much on wealth destruction as on its creation - the old or inefficient giving way to the newer or more efficient. The much lambasted income redistribution they so detest is a feature, not a bug, most especially in the case of estate taxes. Merit is not genetic.
The other thing is that the jobs in any sector can be restored tomorrow by reversing the technological developments that have expanded automation.

I wasn't a career logger or anything like that, but I did work in a sawmill for a few summers.

Visiting the old mill, it's producing something like four times the output now, with about 25% of the staff it saw in the 1980s.

The workers of course blame the USA for their 'unfair trade practices' as a source of job decline, just as the American workers blame Canada, but the reality is that the employers have been shaving down their labour footprint through capital investments.

With the implosion of 'respect' for unions, the attention is directed to 'blame foreigners' instead of the actual root cause.
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Old 2nd May 2017, 09:23 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
It makes sense. Canada would have to own the vast majority if they can so easily set the price
This part is the simple part - if the land is not owned by a real person, a corporation, set aside for a First Nation, or a part of an incorporated municipality or Federal reserve, it's Crown Land and administered by the Province. It can be sold, or rented, or for a fee the resources can be extracted from it.
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Old 2nd May 2017, 09:31 AM   #139
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Well then wouldn't that tell you that the US needs to fight to keep its job base
What it tells us is that if everyone else does what you are suggesting the US do, everyone would forbid imposing US products and expel US companies. You’d need to be a little slow on the uptake to think having US companies and products forbidden from participating in international markets is “protecting US job base”.
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Old 2nd May 2017, 09:55 AM   #140
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Originally Posted by Border Reiver View Post
This part is the simple part - if the land is not owned by a real person, a corporation, set aside for a First Nation, or a part of an incorporated municipality or Federal reserve, it's Crown Land and administered by the Province. It can be sold, or rented, or for a fee the resources can be extracted from it.
Or just auction off the logging rights to the highest bidder so other uses of the land are not restricted.
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Old 2nd May 2017, 10:38 AM   #141
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Or just auction off the logging rights to the highest bidder so other uses of the land are not restricted.
This is the process, yes. Leases are often very long. My brother has recreational property on Ainsworth leased Crown land in the Cariboo. The area was clear cut in the 1980s and has been reforested twice (the first generation inventory was mostly destroyed by pine beetle). The new generation is coming along nicely. It's a 50 year lease, after which it will revert to the Crown for re-negotiation, I think in 2030.

In addition to leasing the land, which is charged annually, there is a 'stumpage' fee, which is collected if and when the wood is harvested. It's this 'per cubic meter harvested' fee that is allegedly too low, and allegedly therefore 'dumping'. This has been brought up several times in the trade dispute process, and has been rejected as unjustified by the review panels every time.
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Old 2nd May 2017, 01:47 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
What it tells us is that if everyone else does what you are suggesting the US do, everyone would forbid imposing US products and expel US companies. You’d need to be a little slow on the uptake to think having US companies and products forbidden from participating in international markets is “protecting US job base”.
Just what do you think I'm suggesting? This is SOP when a country thinks there's an unfair trade practice. It can be specific like this one.
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Old 3rd May 2017, 12:34 PM   #143
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Just what do you think I'm suggesting? This is SOP when a country thinks there's an unfair trade practice. It can be specific like this one.
SOP is actually to pursue the trade agreement's dispute process.

This was performed, and the dispute board rejected the US' complaint as not valid.

You are free to read the rulings over the years. The American judges also agreed that there was no evidence of dumping.
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Old 3rd May 2017, 01:54 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
Edited by Agatha:  Edited to remove breach in quote
Edited by Agatha:  Edited breach of rule 0 and rule 12

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Old 3rd May 2017, 02:19 PM   #145
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Old 3rd May 2017, 03:49 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
SOP is actually to pursue the trade agreement's dispute process.

This was performed, and the dispute board rejected the US' complaint as not valid.

You are free to read the rulings over the years. The American judges also agreed that there was no evidence of dumping.
So what we're left with is saving an inidustry and jobs. We've had enough history with this trade agreement to watch our jobs leave, so it needs to be reworked. I suppose you're of the opinion we should let those jobs go in favor of more high tech high paying jobs, which is reasonable, except for the ones losing their jobs.
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Old 3rd May 2017, 03:51 PM   #147
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
So what we're left with is saving an inidustry and jobs. We've had enough history with this trade agreement to watch our jobs leave, so it needs to be reworked. I suppose you're of the opinion we should let those jobs go in favor of more high tech high paying jobs, which is reasonable, except for the ones losing their jobs.
Here you are, talking about the left again.
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Old 3rd May 2017, 03:54 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Here you are, talking about the left again.
Lol
You certainly do know me well!
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Old 3rd May 2017, 04:58 PM   #149
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
So what we're left with is saving an inidustry and jobs. We've had enough history with this trade agreement to watch our jobs leave, so it needs to be reworked.
The question is: what does 'reworked' look like? Would any reworking just exchange logging jobs for other jobs elsewhere in the USA? What do you tell those people?


Originally Posted by logger View Post
I suppose you're of the opinion we should let those jobs go in favor of more high tech high paying jobs, which is reasonable, except for the ones losing their jobs.
Yes, that's the model the Republicans have been advocating for almost my entire 50 years on this planet: free trade means some jobs disappear, but more are created, so it's better for the nation.

Where the Republicans fall down is that their proposal for those who lose their jobs is "you're on your own, shoulda picked a better career," which I've always felt was a bit heartless.

In contrast, the Democrats consistently propose investment in education for the displaced, which I always thought was aligned with the American spirit of moving ahead, moving forward, producing better, safer, careers for the next generation.
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Old 3rd May 2017, 05:50 PM   #150
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Score one point for the USA in the Peanut Butter Battle.

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Old 3rd May 2017, 05:57 PM   #151
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
The question is: what does 'reworked' look like? Would any reworking just exchange logging jobs for other jobs elsewhere in the USA? What do you tell those people?
Looks like a 24% tariff


Quote:
Yes, that's the model the Republicans have been advocating for almost my entire 50 years on this planet: free trade means some jobs disappear, but more are created, so it's better for the nation.

Where the Republicans fall down is that their proposal for those who lose their jobs is "you're on your own, shoulda picked a better career," which I've always felt was a bit heartless.
Its more about the industry than individual jobs. its too broad to worry about individual jobs.
Quote:
In contrast, the Democrats consistently propose investment in education for the displaced, which I always thought was aligned with the American spirit of moving ahead, moving forward, producing better, safer, careers for the next generation.
The democrats consistently propose craddle to the grave.
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Old 3rd May 2017, 09:49 PM   #152
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Looks like a 24% tariff



Its more about the industry than individual jobs. its too broad to worry about individual jobs.


The democrats consistently propose craddle to the grave.
Thank you. It might have been unintentional but at least you're honest. Forestry and Timber in the US encompass so few jobs that it is most definitely NOT about the workers. It's about protecting the profits of some already profitable companies, and using your industry as a bargaining chip to get concessions in other areas.

I think this was a carefully picked fight. (Not by Trump - he's too stupid to understand the nuances.) It has nothing to do with NAFTA but gives the appearance of doing so because it involves two of the signatories.
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Old 3rd May 2017, 10:04 PM   #153
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
So what we're left with is saving an inidustry and jobs. We've had enough history with this trade agreement to watch our jobs leave, so it needs to be reworked. I suppose you're of the opinion we should let those jobs go in favor of more high tech high paying jobs, which is reasonable, except for the ones losing their jobs.


Why save an inefficient industry? You've had nearly twenty-five years between the original Canada-US Free Trade deal and NAFTA to sort out the kinks in your industries and make them competitive - any failing industries are the fault of those business owners failing to adapt to the market conditions.

As for adapting to the new job market, that is an unfortunate side effect of a free market system . Yes, it does suck to have guessed wrong as to what career to have chosen, pigeon-holed into a dead end career by a limited education and the prohibitive costs of relocation, but those are the breaks.

You sound like a leftist - the state protecting people from the harshness of market forces, when really, if those out of workers had the American spirit they would just start over, either start their own business or go work elsewhere.
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Old 4th May 2017, 05:46 AM   #154
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
So what we're left with is saving an inidustry and jobs.
Free trade – lose lower paying jobs in less efficient industries and gain higher paying jobs in more efficient industries
Protectionism – lose high paying jobs in efficient industries but preserver lower paying jobs in less efficient industries.

You get to pick one and only one.
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Old 4th May 2017, 05:49 AM   #155
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Thank you. It might have been unintentional but at least you're honest. Forestry and Timber in the US encompass so few jobs that it is most definitely NOT about the workers. It's about protecting the profits of some already profitable companies, and using your industry as a bargaining chip to get concessions in other areas.

I think this was a carefully picked fight. (Not by Trump - he's too stupid to understand the nuances.) It has nothing to do with NAFTA but gives the appearance of doing so because it involves two of the signatories.
No, its about protecting our remaining industries. We've lost much of our manufacturing base, hopefully the rework (if he does it) will bring them back.
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Old 4th May 2017, 05:51 AM   #156
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Originally Posted by Border Reiver View Post
Why save an inefficient industry? You've had nearly twenty-five years between the original Canada-US Free Trade deal and NAFTA to sort out the kinks in your industries and make them competitive - any failing industries are the fault of those business owners failing to adapt to the market conditions.

As for adapting to the new job market, that is an unfortunate side effect of a free market system . Yes, it does suck to have guessed wrong as to what career to have chosen, pigeon-holed into a dead end career by a limited education and the prohibitive costs of relocation, but those are the breaks.

You sound like a leftist - the state protecting people from the harshness of market forces, when really, if those out of workers had the American spirit they would just start over, either start their own business or go work elsewhere.
If you start off with cheaper raw products, there's no way one can compete. We get that in labor with other countries like China.
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Old 4th May 2017, 05:53 AM   #157
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Free trade – lose lower paying jobs in less efficient industries and gain higher paying jobs in more efficient industries
Protectionism – lose high paying jobs in efficient industries but preserver lower paying jobs in less efficient industries.

You get to pick one and only one.
Actually you can have both, Trump just showed how. It's not about efficiency, the timber in Canada starts off cheaper, that is what has to be overcome.
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Old 4th May 2017, 05:54 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
No, its about protecting our remaining industries. We've lost much of our manufacturing base, hopefully the rework (if he does it) will bring them back.
Why would they, given that it's cheaper elsewhere?
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Old 4th May 2017, 05:55 AM   #159
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Interesting that it is all about saving the foresting industry, yet the administration just approved the import of lemons from Argentina, which has been prohibited for many years. OK to save the foresting industry, but don't care about the lemon industry?

Oh right, that's in California, and we don't care about those liberals....
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Old 4th May 2017, 05:56 AM   #160
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Why would they, given that it's cheaper elsewhere?
Not for long?
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