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Tags Canada economy , nafta , US-Canada relations

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Old 5th May 2017, 11:37 AM   #201
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A good article from Vox! Yes I know... but it still tells it accurately.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...mber-trade-war
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Old 5th May 2017, 11:42 AM   #202
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
How has Canada reacted to this tariff?
Provincially, see my post above.

Federally, the Prime Minister has said he's exploring all options. What that probably means is to find some fabricated accusation about American subsidies, and put a tariff on that product.

In my industry, that would be call centers. We have about fifty thousand employees in the USA, we could be told to fire them all and return the work to Canada, for example.

80% of US auto manufacture is exported, for example. Americans export more than the import. The USA is very vulnerable to net job losses in the event of a protectionism war.
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Old 5th May 2017, 11:50 AM   #203
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post

Protectionism leads to fewer jobs overall, for everybody. Trade is Win Win. Protectionism is Lose Lose.
Technically it just leads to lower paying jobs for everyone. The central bank can already drive job creation to the point where inflation starts to rise so “lost” jobs can actually be replaced fairly easily, Not only can the jobs be replaced, but since the replacements are in more efficient industries than those lost the new jobs support higher wages in both countries.
Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
Trade is Win Win. Protectionism is Lose Lose.
Mostly true. Trade can unbalance mechanisms like organized labour that help ensure fair wealth distribution and there are issues around worker retraining and worker mobility. To a first approximation though, trade reallocates jobs to more efficient industries and more efficient industries can and usually do pay higher wages.
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Old 5th May 2017, 11:57 AM   #204
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
Provincially, see my post above.

Federally, the Prime Minister has said he's exploring all options. What that probably means is to find some fabricated accusation about American subsidies, and put a tariff on that product.

In my industry, that would be call centers. We have about fifty thousand employees in the USA, we could be told to fire them all and return the work to Canada, for example.

80% of US auto manufacture is exported, for example. Americans export more than the import. The USA is very vulnerable to net job losses in the event of a protectionism war.
Or they might do what they've always done and come to another agreement?
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Old 5th May 2017, 12:05 PM   #205
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
The BC premier is already commencing a process to bar US coal import.

So, at this point the question is: how many US coal jobs are worth losing to save a few US logging jobs (if any)?
Even if he doesn’t it doesn’t really change much. When the US buys less Canadian lumber demand for US$ to CDN$ conversion drops, which causes the CDN$ to drop. When the CDN$ drops it make US products more expensive in Canada and Canadian products more affordable in the US.

From a US perspective this means US business find their prices undercut by Canadian competition at home while others who had been exporting products/services to Canada face reduced demand because their precuts have effectively been made more expensive on Canadian markets. Not only does this mean job losses across the US economy, the jobs lost will be in higher paying industries than the ones that were “saved”
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Old 5th May 2017, 12:07 PM   #206
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Or they might do what they've always done and come to another agreement?
Yep. Anything's possible.

Just saying that if Trump goes to the wall on this (as opposed to just doing this as a token gesture, expecting to abandon it later), it will be an actual trade war.

So, this is a common theme with Trump. If he means what he says, it's a problem.

So people console themselves by saying he's just kidding around, and there's nothing to worry about.
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Old 5th May 2017, 02:29 PM   #207
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However this works out for the US timber trade, I don't expect it'll do the US tourist industry any favours.
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Old 5th May 2017, 03:37 PM   #208
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Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
However this works out for the US timber trade, I don't expect it'll do the US tourist industry any favours.
I think it's more the airport arrest boondoggle back in January that cratered US tourism for the foreseeable future.

In unrelated threads, I was mentioning that my wife's entire department opted out of APA this year. The convention is apparently 50% booked. And this is not surprising: MDs in Canada are disproportionately 'ethnic'. Muslims, Jews, Sikhs, Atheists, mostly dark skinned with 'funny names'. Nobody wants to end up handcuffed in an airport. Not worth the risk.

My childhood babysitter is a travel agent in Sidney Australia and she says even Australians are picking 'safer' destinations this winter (meaning Julyish). US packages are down more than half in her agency.
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Old 5th May 2017, 04:00 PM   #209
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
Even if he doesn’t it doesn’t really change much. When the US buys less Canadian lumber demand for US$ to CDN$ conversion drops, which causes the CDN$ to drop. When the CDN$ drops it make US products more expensive in Canada and Canadian products more affordable in the US.

From a US perspective this means US business find their prices undercut by Canadian competition at home while others who had been exporting products/services to Canada face reduced demand because their precuts have effectively been made more expensive on Canadian markets. Not only does this mean job losses across the US economy, the jobs lost will be in higher paying industries than the ones that were “saved”
Yes, I admit I was simplifying, and just describing short term effects. In the long term, both countries experience accumulated effects and will adjust monetary policy. It's still going to be lose-lose.
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Old 5th May 2017, 07:23 PM   #210
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
Yep. Anything's possible.

Just saying that if Trump goes to the wall on this (as opposed to just doing this as a token gesture, expecting to abandon it later), it will be an actual trade war.

So, this is a common theme with Trump. If he means what he says, it's a problem.

So people console themselves by saying he's just kidding around, and there's nothing to worry about.
No I don't think it will be a trade war, for the simple fact that they need our money more than we need theirs.
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Old 6th May 2017, 06:16 AM   #211
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
No I don't think it will be a trade war, for the simple fact that they need our money more than we need theirs.
I'm not sure who the we and they are in this. They being Michigan auto workers and we being loggers?

And what's this about money? Trade is about living standards. More trade makes for higher living standards than without.

So, yes, in this day and age trade wars are less likely, because advanced countries that want to improve their standard of living participate in trade agreements like NAFTA and TPP.
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Old 6th May 2017, 08:55 AM   #212
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It's funny. "Canada is not charging enough to graze on Canadian government land, so it undercuts US farm product!"

Meanwhile in the US, the government is well under-charging grazing rights compared to private land grazing rights, i.e. what farmers can and are willing to pay, with one side saying, "The People need to raise prices to get their money's worth out of Their Land", while the other side says, "Keeping prices low to grow food is the People's primary business!"
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Old 6th May 2017, 10:09 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
I'm not sure who the we and they are in this. They being Michigan auto workers and we being loggers?

And what's this about money? Trade is about living standards. More trade makes for higher living standards than without.
Meaning Canada will back down as they always have.
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So, yes, in this day and age trade wars are less likely, because advanced countries that want to improve their standard of living participate in trade agreements like NAFTA and TPP.
Agreed, which is why Trump is working them over a bit.
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Old 7th May 2017, 01:50 PM   #214
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US Commerce chief says Canadian trade threats 'inappropriate'

Originally Posted by CNBC
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Saturday that threats of retaliatory trade actions from Canadian officials "are inappropriate" and will not influence final U.S. import duty determinations on Canadian softwood lumber.

"We continue to believe that a negotiated settlement is in the best interests of all parties and we are prepared to work toward that end," Ross said in a statement issued by the Commerce Department.

On Friday, Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau said his government would study whether to stop U.S. firms from shipping thermal coal from ports in the Pacific province of British Columbia in response to the lumber duties.

Canada also is considering duties on exports from Oregon such as wine, flooring and plywood, a source close to the matter told Reuters, citing the role played by U.S. Senator Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat, in pressing for the lumber tariffs.
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Old 7th May 2017, 02:05 PM   #215
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You reap what you sew?
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Old 7th May 2017, 02:10 PM   #216
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
You reap what you sew?
A better deal than what you had?
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:12 PM   #217
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
A better deal than what you had?
It's only "better" for the tiny proportion of the US population directly involved in the logging industry - possibly even only those who own logging companies. OTOH everyone else will be paying higher prices for all kinds of goods and/or will have their own employment disrupted in the event that the new trade terms are less favourable for other industries.

That said, I think the Vox article you linked earlier may have the correct analysis. This is a trivial and simmering thing that Trump has blown out of all proportion to look like the big man on the international stage.
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Old 8th May 2017, 01:46 AM   #218
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
A better deal than what you had?
It'll be a "better deal" like AHCA is a better health plan, which is to say, you can fool some of the people all of the time.
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Old 8th May 2017, 04:12 AM   #219
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
You reap what you sew?
OMG! He's putting quotas on garments, next?

(Sow)
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Old 8th May 2017, 08:57 AM   #220
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Meaning Canada will back down as they always have.
Winning their challenge to similar tariffs is “backing down”?

Not that it really matters, tariffs are really just a way for Government to pick winners and losers among US industry and punish consumers as an unintended consequence. It’s a real example of “big government” interference in the economy that causes far more harm than good. (As opposed to the false or badly formed objection to regulations we are normally presented with)
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Old 8th May 2017, 09:06 AM   #221
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Meaning Canada will back down as they always have.
Back down on what? The history is that US tariffs against Canadian softwood lumber imports have always been rescinded. That's the US backing down.

And yes, I agree that that's a likely outcome: Trump will probably back down, as he did on the proposed import duty to pay for the Mexico wall. Tariffs reduce the living standards of Americans overall; they're an bad proposal even if they subsidize one particular industry for awhile.



Originally Posted by logger View Post
Agreed, which is why Trump is working them over a bit.
The USA is an advanced country, last I heard. It sounds like you're agreeing with my statement that Trump is 'working over' Americans for some incomprehensible reason?
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Old 8th May 2017, 09:11 AM   #222
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
It's only "better" for the tiny proportion of the US population directly involved in the logging industry - possibly even only those who own logging companies. OTOH everyone else will be paying higher prices for all kinds of goods and/or will have their own employment disrupted in the event that the new trade terms are less favourable for other industries.

That said, I think the Vox article you linked earlier may have the correct analysis. This is a trivial and simmering thing that Trump has blown out of all proportion to look like the big man on the international stage.
Look, it's clear to me they're angling for a deal like they had before. Im willing to let the man who's been tested in this area get it done.
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Old 8th May 2017, 09:13 AM   #223
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
OMG! He's putting quotas on garments, next?

(Sow)
Don't you think it's a bit petty to do things like this? I knew what this poster meant
Edited by jsfisher:  <snip> Edited for compliance with rules 0 and 12 of the Membership Agreement.

Last edited by jsfisher; 13th May 2017 at 09:45 AM.
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Old 8th May 2017, 09:15 AM   #224
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
Back down on what? The history is that US tariffs against Canadian softwood lumber imports have always been rescinded. That's the US backing down.
Meaning, get the kind of deal they had before?
Quote:
And yes, I agree that that's a likely outcome: Trump will probably back down, as he did on the proposed import duty to pay for the Mexico wall. Tariffs reduce the living standards of Americans overall; they're an bad proposal even if they subsidize one particular industry for awhile.
No I think he's angling for a better deal.




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The USA is an advanced country, last I heard. It sounds like you're agreeing with my statement that Trump is 'working over' Americans for some incomprehensible reason?
That would be thinking about it through emotion instead of logic.
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Old 8th May 2017, 09:35 AM   #225
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Look, it's clear to me they're angling for a deal like they had before.
...and that was a deal which expired because the number of people for whom it was "good" was far outnumbered by those for whom it was "bad"

Originally Posted by logger View Post
Im willing to let the man who's been tested in this area get it done.
Who's that ?
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Old 8th May 2017, 10:21 AM   #226
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Meaning, get the kind of deal they had before?
Before what? I'm confused about your timeframe. Do you mean a deal like they had before proposing the tariff? If so, then why bother?




Originally Posted by logger View Post
No I think he's angling for a better deal.
Not sure what that means. When he abandons the tariff, it will revert to to the deal we had last month. The only change is that the US seems less predictable than in the past, which means value to spreading our trade around and demoting the US' priority in trade.

This is what is happening to the UK as it pulls out of the EU - the increased unpredictability has lowered the value of their trade relationship, we are reviewing moving our London operations to continental Europe. Sabre-rattling in a world where there are dozens of competitors costs business.



Originally Posted by logger View Post
That would be thinking about it through emotion instead of logic.
I have no idea why you say that. What part of my reasoning are you disputing? Are you saying the US is no longer an advanced country? I'm getting very confused by your statements.
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Old 8th May 2017, 10:25 AM   #227
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Don't you think it's a bit petty to do things like this? I knew what this poster meant
Edited by jsfisher:  <snip> Moderated content redacted.
He's succeeding at his business, there's no doubt about it.

His gains were at the expense of shareowners (who lose their shirts in the bankruptcies) and labourers (who work hard to deliver services and don't get paid as promised). In this model, the shareowners and labourers are the American voters and workers. If history is our guide, he will screw them over for his personal gain.

Is this the business model you're hoping he will deploy?
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Old 8th May 2017, 12:13 PM   #228
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
...and that was a deal which expired because the number of people for whom it was "good" was far outnumbered by those for whom it was "bad"
You're still stuck on this backward train of thinking Trump is looking out for people building homes. He's concerned about keeping one of our industries strong. Which most home builders would be proud of. Remember the saying"buy local"?




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Who's that ?
Trump
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Old 8th May 2017, 12:17 PM   #229
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
He's succeeding at his business, there's no doubt about it.

His gains were at the expense of shareowners (who lose their shirts in the bankruptcies) and labourers (who work hard to deliver services and don't get paid as promised). In this model, the shareowners and labourers are the American voters and workers. If history is our guide, he will screw them over for his personal gain.

Is this the business model you're hoping he will deploy?
This wasn't directed at Trump.

So let's pretend it was meant as you thought.
Obviously you've never dealt with contractors who do crappy work. Final payment is a commonly used tactic to get them to fox the mistakes they've made. Do you honestly think after hundreds of projects which each have hundreds contractors Trump would not be dealing Ng with issues such as this?

Real simple stuff here folks for people who have lived!
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Old 8th May 2017, 12:56 PM   #230
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Originally Posted by logger View Post
Im willing to let the man who's been tested in this area get it done.


Who's that ?


Trump
Just because he once took a Turing Test doesn't mean he passed.
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Old 8th May 2017, 01:05 PM   #231
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
This wasn't directed at Trump.

So let's pretend it was meant as you thought.
Obviously you've never dealt with contractors who do crappy work. Final payment is a commonly used tactic to get them to fox the mistakes they've made. Do you honestly think after hundreds of projects which each have hundreds contractors Trump would not be dealing Ng with issues such as this?

Real simple stuff here folks for people who have lived!
As mentioned earlier, my job is to solicit contracted vendors, to the tune of multimillion dollar projects every year. We take pains to vet our contractors for quality and have never had that problem.

Since he's experiencing this problem so frequently, and declaring so many bankruptcies, it sounds like either he's a poor manager, or on the other hand, this could be his business model. I was giving him credit for being competent but corrupt. If you are arguing instead that he's honest but incompetent, I can see the merit in that too. But I think the 'corrupt' model better explains how he makes millions while bankrupting investors.

Either way, what makes you think he knows anything about international trade such that he can competently negotiate? So far he's muffed up the trust of Canada, which is a long standing partner providing low cost materials and services to Americans for generations.
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Old 8th May 2017, 01:11 PM   #232
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
You're still stuck on this backward train of thinking Trump is looking out for people building homes.
I think he promised to look out for all Americans, so presumably that would include people who build homes.



Originally Posted by logger View Post
He's concerned about keeping one of our industries strong. Which most home builders would be proud of. Remember the saying"buy local"?
Well, they're not. The main complaints have been from construction companies, that industry is not kept strong with this change.

Another block of complaints is from real estate agents - the increase in the home costs will be passed on to new buyers, most of whom are already struggling with down payments.

If you want to persuade people to buy local, go picket a Dollar Store. That's an entire retail sector that profits from foreign manufacturing.

The reason there's cheap imports is that Americans want it. Your proposal is to interfere in the market and reduce consumer choice and force them to pay more. Which is fine, but appreciate it for what it is.
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Old 8th May 2017, 05:14 PM   #233
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Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
As mentioned earlier, my job is to solicit contracted vendors, to the tune of multimillion dollar projects every year. We take pains to vet our contractors for quality and have never had that problem.

Since he's experiencing this problem so frequently, and declaring so many bankruptcies, it sounds like either he's a poor manager, or on the other hand, this could be his business model. I was giving him credit for being competent but corrupt. If you are arguing instead that he's honest but incompetent, I can see the merit in that too. But I think the 'corrupt' model better explains how he makes millions while bankrupting investors.

I seriously doubt your little sales job even remotely compares to what he's been involved in. That you would think this is simply laughable. When you make your first billion, please let us know.
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Either way, what makes you think he knows anything about international trade such that he can competently negotiate? So far he's muffed up the trust of Canada, which is a long standing partner providing low cost materials and services to Americans for generations.
He doesn't have to, remember we went over this nut a while back. He like Obama surround themselves with people who know. Trumps job is to facilitate the negotiation. Obama was probably the least experienced person to ever hold the office.
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Old 8th May 2017, 05:19 PM   #234
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[quote=blutoski;11830000]I think he promised to look out for all Americans, so presumably that would include people who build homes.[\quote]

Logic would tell you a clue on that. Maybe you just didn't understand him, funny, I knew exactly what he meant.




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Well, they're not. The main complaints have been from construction companies, that industry is not kept strong with this change.

Another block of complaints is from real estate agents - the increase in the home costs will be passed on to new buyers, most of whom are already struggling with down payments.

If you want to persuade people to buy local, go picket a Dollar Store. That's an entire retail sector that profits from foreign manufacturing.

The reason there's cheap imports is that Americans want it. Your proposal is to interfere in the market and reduce consumer choice and force them to pay more. Which is fine, but appreciate it for what it is.
Seriously? The tariff couldn't possibly affect anyone yet.
Real Estate agents? ******* hilarious! Do you realize they make more money the higher the home cost?
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Old 8th May 2017, 07:55 PM   #235
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Seriously? The tariff couldn't possibly affect anyone yet.
Real Estate agents? ******* hilarious! Do you realize they make more money the higher the home cost?

Sure, like gas prices don't rise the instant that there's some sort of serious problem reported in the Middle East, or in some part of the oil supply chain either.

And if they sell fewer homes, they make less.
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Old 8th May 2017, 08:53 PM   #236
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Originally Posted by blutoski View Post
I think he promised to look out for all Americans, so presumably that would include people who build homes.
Logic would tell you a clue on that. Maybe you just didn't understand him, funny, I knew exactly what he meant.





Seriously? The tariff couldn't possibly affect anyone yet.
Real Estate agents? ******* hilarious! Do you realize they make more money the higher the home cost?
The tariff was merely announced and softwood went to its highest price in three decades.

And real estate agents do make more if the price is higher. OTOH, what's 6% of $000,000.00? If they can't sell houses they make zip. The concern is at the low end of the housing market, as you know.
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Old 8th May 2017, 09:03 PM   #237
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
The tariff was merely announced and softwood went to its highest price in three decades.
See why those 4 mills shouldn't be controlling the market?
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And real estate agents do make more if the price is higher. OTOH, what's 6% of $000,000.00? If they can't sell houses they make zip. The concern is at the low end of the housing market, as you know.
Can't sell houses? A bit dramatic even for you?

Guess what happens if the houses don't sell from this tiny increase in lumber? Magically the price goes down. Guess why it goes down?

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Old 8th May 2017, 09:09 PM   #238
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Originally Posted by Border Reiver View Post
Sure, like gas prices don't rise the instant that there's some sort of serious problem reported in the Middle East, or in some part of the oil supply chain either.

And if they sell fewer homes, they make less.
No actually that doesn't happen in lumber, sorry!

See, people don't need to buy 2x4's like they need gas. So when prices do finally climb, guess what will happen a short time later? these cycles are quite common.
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Old 8th May 2017, 09:18 PM   #239
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Originally Posted by logger View Post


Can't sell houses? A bit dramatic even for you?

Guess what happens if the houses don't sell from this tiny increase in lumber? Magically the price goes down. Guess why it goes down?
Trickle Down Magic? Libertarian catechism? Voodoo Economics? 'Cuz Milton Friedman says so?
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Old 8th May 2017, 11:27 PM   #240
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
You're still stuck on this backward train of thinking Trump is looking out for people building homes. He's concerned about keeping one of our industries strong.
I'm not clear on which industry he's concerned about keeping strong. If it's the logging industry and he's really interested in keeping it strong as opposed to engaging in this whole charade to appear "strong" then he's going about it an interesting way.

If he were to impose tariffs then he is baking in the inefficiencies which meant that the US lumber industry apparently couldn't compete domestically, much less internationally. Over time those inefficiencies will become even further ingrained so, like the US motor industry in the 1970s, it'll become "institutionalised" in its own domestic market, leaving it exposed to better and more efficient entrants from overseas.

This "support" for the logging industry is of course coming at a significant cost to other industries like construction, realty and finance which contribute far more to U.S. GDP than the logging industry - not to mention the US consumer who will have bear the passed on costs.

Trump isn't just robbing Peter in a misguided attempt to pay Paul, he's robbing Peter, Mandy, Eric, Diane and Bill to try to pay Paul.

Originally Posted by logger View Post
Which most home builders would be proud of. Remember the saying"buy local"?
Evidence for the first part ?

I do remember the saying "buy local". There's no evidence that's good advice for the economy as a whole because it restricts the opportunities for specialisation.

Originally Posted by logger View Post
Trump
A man with absolutely no experience whatsoever of conducting trade negotiations between sovereign nation and pretty dubious business credentials all around.

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been tested in this area
I query whether he has indeed been tested, but more pertinently, whether he comprehensively and repeatedly flunked those tests.
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