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Tags donald trump , political speculation , Trump controversies

View Poll Results: Is a Trump impeachment likely?
Yes, expect to see it happen sometime in the near future. 38 31.15%
No, Trump is safe(for now) 46 37.70%
Don't know 18 14.75%
On planet X Trump will dissolve Congress fire everyone and declare himself POTUS for life 20 16.39%
Voters: 122. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 18th May 2017, 12:20 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
So it's a sunk cost issue as much as a partisan issue?
They could abandon the beast anytime and lose nothing. It only takes a 10-second look at the order of succession to see that the alternatives are more re-electable than the beast.

That's the truly demented thing about the defenders. They think that keeping it around will somehow accrue to their advantage when elections roll around again, ignoring the fact that every time someone opens their mouth in its defense they lose credibility and can't get that credibility back as long as the beast continues to occupy the Oval Office.
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Old 18th May 2017, 12:35 PM   #82
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It may be wishful thinking, but while I think impeachment is extremely unlikely, I think resignation is a good possibility. I think Trump might just get sick of the media constantly (from his viewpoint) persecuting him and frustrated by not being able to get much through Congress, and executive orders being overturned by the courts, and decide to take his ball and go home. If he doesn't resign, he might decide not to run for a second term.
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Old 18th May 2017, 12:48 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
They could abandon the beast anytime and lose nothing. It only takes a 10-second look at the order of succession to see that the alternatives are more re-electable than the beast.

That's the truly demented thing about the defenders. They think that keeping it around will somehow accrue to their advantage when elections roll around again, ignoring the fact that every time someone opens their mouth in its defense they lose credibility and can't get that credibility back as long as the beast continues to occupy the Oval Office.
The Republicans are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

If they act too quickly, they risk alienating the Trump believers. There is quite a lot of them and the Republicans need them to win. Republican leadership will not move against Trump until there is overwhelming evidence against him.

If they take too long, they risk losing the the Senate and maybe the House in 2020 or even 2018.
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Old 18th May 2017, 12:58 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
18 USC Section 4

Obstruction being a felony, Comey would have had an obligation to report it to a judge, the Attorney General or some other authority. I guess it remains possible that he did indeed report it but in that case it seems odd that we wouldn't have heard about it already; I mean, there's your impeachable offense right there.
Quote:
The federal definition of misprision requires that, “(1) the principal committed and completed the felony alleged; (2) the defendant had knowledge of the fact; (3) the defendant failed to notify the authorities; and (4) the defendant took affirmative steps to conceal the crime of the principal.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.ed096850afd0

He could probably argue that he didn't do (3) given that he was an authority. Even if not, he shared the memos with other authorities.

And he didn't do (4), Just the opposite, he took affirmative steps to make sure that other authorities knew what happened.
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Old 18th May 2017, 12:59 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
Because it's easier than acknowledging that not only is it likely a criminal that needs to be impeached, but it has done nothing particularly useful for its own supporters, let alone the entire nation. Defending it is, at virtually every level, the most empty of gestures; the only thing truly accomplished is making "liberals/progressives" angry, which for some I guess is a primary goal. It's too bad that it's apparently necessary to flush the quality of our government down the toilet to fully accomplish such a laudable goal.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/o...ight.html?_r=0
Quote:
"But the real heart of anti-anti-Trumpism is the delight in the frustration and anger of his opponents. Mr. Trump’s base is unlikely to hold him either to promises or tangible achievements, because conservative politics is now less about ideas or accomplishments than it is about making the right enemies cry out in anguish."
Trump isn't a really much of a conservative, but I feel your comments and the NYT piece are correct, the best part about Trump is pissing off liberals, and by that benchmark, he is doing an outstanding job. Even some of his supporters here seem to know he is completely rudderless and unhinged but support him just the same. It is extremely toxic tribalism at work here.
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Old 18th May 2017, 06:00 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Don't just single out the republicans. The first thing that any politician will think of before voting either way on an impeachment issue is, "Is my seat safe?"

Seriously though, this is just another straw to clutch at. Donald Trump is so despised in this forum that he could solve world poverty and implement every progressive agenda in the book and everybody here would still be saying "hang him!"
What do you suggest drives this animus?

It's not mere partisanship. Like many others, I would take almost any Republican president over Trump. And now the question is whether we would take a Pence over a Trump. Pence would be bad and I would oppose almost everything he stands for, but Trump is a complete disaster. He is at odds with his own White House, his own staff and he tweets contradictory things without batting an eyelid. He is astonishingly self-absorbed and apparently unable to see any value in the truth. The Republicans worried about their seats should know that they are trying to gain some short term advantage for a legacy of shame. People may look back on Trump as the most ignominious episode in electoral history and his enablers will be vilified. This might not happen if his presidency blows over quickly but if there is any kind of crisis that the president has to deal with then this could be a real nightmare.
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Old 18th May 2017, 06:47 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
What do you suggest drives this animus?

It's not mere partisanship. Like many others, I would take almost any Republican president over Trump. And now the question is whether we would take a Pence over a Trump. Pence would be bad and I would oppose almost everything he stands for, but Trump is a complete disaster. He is at odds with his own White House, his own staff and he tweets contradictory things without batting an eyelid. He is astonishingly self-absorbed and apparently unable to see any value in the truth. The Republicans worried about their seats should know that they are trying to gain some short term advantage for a legacy of shame. People may look back on Trump as the most ignominious episode in electoral history and his enablers will be vilified. This might not happen if his presidency blows over quickly but if there is any kind of crisis that the president has to deal with then this could be a real nightmare.
That, of course, assumes there is a future post-Trump for all of us, and not just for a few survivors in shelters trying to rebuild society after a nuclear armageddon that was precipitated by one of those tweets.
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Old 18th May 2017, 07:00 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Like many others, I would take almost any Republican president over Trump. And now the question is whether we would take a Pence over a Trump. Pence would be bad and I would oppose almost everything he stands for, but Trump is a complete disaster.
I like to think about them in terms of alignment: Chaotic Evil or Lawful Evil?
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Old 18th May 2017, 07:03 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
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Old 18th May 2017, 07:11 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
I noticed that no one else has posted this particular news item regarding a Trump impeachment, so I will do so now ...

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-impeac...h-comey-611015

TRUMP IMPEACHMENT ODDS: PRESIDENT NOT LIKELY TO SERVE FOUR YEARS, ACCORDING TO BOOKMAKERS

...

British betting company Ladbrokes has cut the price of a Trump impeachment to odds-on at 4-5 from 11-10. Those new odds equate to a 55.6 percent probability that the Senate will remove the president from office.

...
And by a strange coincidence odds on at 4-5 was also the odds Ladbrokes were giving of Hillary being elected


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7404666.html
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Old 18th May 2017, 07:29 PM   #91
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At this point, trying to remove Trump is like getting rid of Saddam Hussein. Why bother? He's already contained. Keep him in office for the mid-terms, and let him try to run for re-election.

Impeachment (and conviction) lets us off too easy. I think someone in another thread compared Trump to national chemotherapy. Elect a clown, expect the circus.
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Old 18th May 2017, 08:04 PM   #92
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
18 USC Section 4

Obstruction being a felony, Comey would have had an obligation to report it to a judge, the Attorney General or some other authority. I guess it remains possible that he did indeed report it but in that case it seems odd that we wouldn't have heard about it already; I mean, there's your impeachable offense right there.
I see others did cover this, but... "other person in civil or military authority under the United States" includes himself and those he sent the memo to, thus you're incorrect.
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Old 18th May 2017, 08:26 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
I see others did cover this, but... "other person in civil or military authority under the United States" includes himself and those he sent the memo to, thus you're incorrect.
Probably right. After reading a bit more about it, I doubt Comey would be in much trouble anyway if anyone actually called him out on this.
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Old 18th May 2017, 11:23 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by Cain View Post
At this point, trying to remove Trump is like getting rid of Saddam Hussein. Why bother? He's already contained. Keep him in office for the mid-terms, and let him try to run for re-election.

Impeachment (and conviction) lets us off too easy. I think someone in another thread compared Trump to national chemotherapy. Elect a clown, expect the circus.
I agree with this to some extent. If Trump is contained and ensures the retard vote is dead for a generation or two then his election and serving one term could be a painful treatment the country needed to get back on track.

It also depends on the extent of beating Republicans get in 2018 and 2020. If it's severe enough for the party to conduct a purge of retards, if it splits into a conservative and retard wings, then it could be good for the country, overall.

The only problem then is that it could take many, many years for a non-democrat to be elected president. This too is problematic for democracy.

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Old 18th May 2017, 11:39 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I agree with this to some extent. If Trump is contained and ensures the retard vote is dead for a generation or two then his election and serving one term could be a painful treatment the country needed to get back on track.

It also depends on the extent of beating Republicans get in 2018 and 2020. If it's severe enough for the party to conduct a purge of retards, if it splits into a conservative and retard wings, then it could be good for the country, overall.

The only problem then is that it could take many, many years for a non-democrat to be elected president. This too is problematic for democracy.

McHrozni
The trouble is that it's all a rather big IF

An alternative is that it doesn't play out that way. The GOP is happy with Trump as President because he draws all the flak while they get on with the business of transferring wealth from the poor to the rich AND he delivers the 20-25% of the US electorate who are his base, many of whom would otherwise not vote.

A combination of Gerrymandering in the House and electoral statistics in the Senate means that the GOP hang onto control of both in 2018, get another SCOTUS appointee or two in and get their tax cuts implemented.

By 2020, the effects of the tax cuts are being felt in terms of a short term bubble fuelled by government debt and enough people have got used to having a man-child as President to re-elect him.

Rather than lancing the boil of the "retard wing", as you call them, this further empowers them and the GOP remember that, like Reagan and Dubya, it's good to have a useless figurehead to act as a focus while you get on with pushing forward your legislation.

They continue to nominate "colourful" candidates because they get elected (in stark contrast to white-bread, sane bland, candidates like Huckabee and McCain).

Trumplike candidates and Trumplike Presidents become the new norm
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Old 19th May 2017, 12:06 AM   #96
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I think the big IF is whether Mueller finds clear criminal wrongdoings by Trump and his campaign. That should make him toxic, regardless of his base, since it would taint the GOP at least until 2020 if they stick with a known crook - again.
As usual, the question for the Republicans is: can Trump survive this?
No one really thought he could beat the Hollywood Access tapes.
Can he beat the Comey memos?
Let's face it: if anyone can, it's him.
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Old 19th May 2017, 12:50 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss View Post
The combination of intentional gerrymandering and coincidental "gerrymandering" due to the modern tendency of demographic groups to self-segregate makes it unlikely that the Republicans will lose their majority in the House in 2018.
That's not how gerrymandering works at all. If you want to abuse it to increase your vote share you need to have constituencies you want to win rather diverse, with a large block of your core supporters plus as many other groups as you can afford. Your candidates will win with small margins.

You need to stick other constituencies in as monolithic blocs as possible, where they'll elect your opponents with overwhelming margins, your candidates there should be defeated with hefty margins, exceeding 40 points easily. The tendency of demographic groups to self-segregate (there is nothing modern about it by the way) will do more damage to gerrymandering than anything else.

The upshot of this is the Democrats have a very real shot at taking the House, perhaps even score an overwhelming majority. Most of their seats are as safe as they can get, but a substantial portion of Republican seats are competitive. If they make the election a referendum on a lame duck president more than 2/3 of the country wants impeached (a realistic prospect) the only seats Republicans can be calm about are the ones Democrats gerrymandered to disfranchise them.

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Old 19th May 2017, 12:51 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I agree with this to some extent. If Trump is contained and ensures the retard vote is dead for a generation or two then his election and serving one term could be a painful treatment the country needed to get back on track.

It also depends on the extent of beating Republicans get in 2018 and 2020. If it's severe enough for the party to conduct a purge of retards, if it splits into a conservative and retard wings, then it could be good for the country, overall.

The only problem then is that it could take many, many years for a non-democrat to be elected president. This too is problematic for democracy.

McHrozni
The biggest problem with this plan is that it doesn't account for the occupant of the Oval Office being Commander-in-Chief of the military. If there's a crisis and the nation passed on a chance to flush the hellbeast out of the capitol, it could turn into a monstrous mistake. It can't even competently manage its own staff!
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Old 19th May 2017, 02:06 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
The biggest problem with this plan is that it doesn't account for the occupant of the Oval Office being Commander-in-Chief of the military. If there's a crisis and the nation passed on a chance to flush the hellbeast out of the capitol, it could turn into a monstrous mistake. It can't even competently manage its own staff!
I don't see this as being a very significant factor. No military force in the world can challenge the might of the US military and the ones who come the closest are mostly close US allies. It's true enough that incompetent management from above could make any such resolution more costly to the US forces, but that's about it.

There are only two likely significant flashpoints at this time: North Korea and the Baltics. North Korean military is a joke and wouldn't stand a chance defeating the South in a scenario where North Korea launches an invasion, their only threat is the danger their emplaced guns pose to Seoul. Baltics would require a major Russian mobilization and Russia would be faced with the rest of NATO as well. European NATO allies are able to match Russian forces man for man, tank for tank, plane for plane, if Russia sends the entire military there - including the forces in the Far East, Ukraine, Georgia and the Caucasus, where they're needed to defend against insurgents.

Even if both things happen at the same time the greatest threat would come from Trump winning popular support from rally around the flag effect.

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Old 19th May 2017, 02:48 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
I noticed that no one else has posted this particular news item regarding a Trump impeachment, so I will do so now ...

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-impeac...h-comey-611015

TRUMP IMPEACHMENT ODDS: PRESIDENT NOT LIKELY TO SERVE FOUR YEARS, ACCORDING TO BOOKMAKERS

...

British betting company Ladbrokes has cut the price of a Trump impeachment to odds-on at 4-5 from 11-10. Those new odds equate to a 55.6 percent probability that the Senate will remove the president from office.

...
What odds did Ladbrokes give for a Trump presidency?

I don't believe Putin tried to tilt the election in Trump's favor. I think Putin had the same analysis from the same pundits, and like everybody else he predicted Hillary Clinton to win. Whatever he did, it should be interpreted with the expectation that Hillary would win.

Anyway, unless Ladbrokes predicted a Trump presidency, I don't think they have the demonstrated competency to accurately predict a Trump impeachment.
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Old 19th May 2017, 02:49 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
I think it's clear. In Comey's case, since he reports to the Director of National Intelligence, that would be the person to report to. I'm sure he could also report to the AG.
Or Congress.
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Old 19th May 2017, 03:03 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
What odds did Ladbrokes give for a Trump presidency?

I don't believe Putin tried to tilt the election in Trump's favor. I think Putin had the same analysis from the same pundits, and like everybody else he predicted Hillary Clinton to win. Whatever he did, it should be interpreted with the expectation that Hillary would win.

Anyway, unless Ladbrokes predicted a Trump presidency, I don't think they have the demonstrated competency to accurately predict a Trump impeachment.
In any case, apart from initially "making the market", Ladbrokes (and other bookmakers) don't require insight or predictive power, they are just trying to balance the risk so that no matter how the situation turns out, they'll make money on it.

That the odds have shortened significantly doesn't mean that they think that the outcome is more likely but that their punters do, have bet accordingly and then Ladbrokes adjust the odds as necessary.

Of course an analysis of what happened to Trump's odds just before the election may give an insight into how well Ladbrokes' punters predicted the situation but even then they could be a completely different set of people.
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Old 19th May 2017, 03:32 AM   #103
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I don't believe Putin tried to tilt the election in Trump's favor. I think Putin had the same analysis from the same pundits, and like everybody else he predicted Hillary Clinton to win. Whatever he did, it should be interpreted with the expectation that Hillary would win.
I agree that he was not trying to tilt the election in Trump's favor. He was likely trying to tilt the election against Clinton or, at least, to make her election look as shady as she accused Putin's election of being. However, after a certain point, those goals become identical. Naturally, he was doing it because he thought she'd win. Otherwise, why do anything at all?
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Old 19th May 2017, 05:25 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post

I don't believe Putin tried to tilt the election in Trump's favor. I think Putin had the same analysis from the same pundits, and like everybody else he predicted Hillary Clinton to win. Whatever he did, it should be interpreted with the expectation that Hillary would win.
Putin predicted Hilary would win? When did that happen?? The conclusion based on the evidence is that the Russians intereferred with the USA election in the attempt to make Trump win and he did.


Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Anyway, unless Ladbrokes predicted a Trump presidency, I don't think they have the demonstrated competency to accurately predict a Trump impeachment.
Ladbrokes' odds are irrelevant. Betting odds do not determine the actual outcome of any event.

The impeachment of Trump will be based on the findings of the Special Counsel.

I would bet that Trump is going to be impeached based on the fact that he has been shown to be a pathological liar and have appeared to have made claims about the former FBI director that are far from the truth.

The day is coming when Trump will hear the words "You are fired".
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Old 19th May 2017, 05:38 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by dejudge View Post
The impeachment of Trump will be based on the findings of the Special Counsel.
The impeachment of Trump will be based on a Republican congress willing to impeach a Republican president.
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Old 19th May 2017, 06:20 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
I like to think about them in terms of alignment: Chaotic Evil or Lawful Evil?
Trump's more Chaotic Neutral then anything else.
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Old 19th May 2017, 06:30 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by Border Reiver View Post
Trump's more Chaotic Neutral then anything else.
I actually had that thought after I posted.
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Old 19th May 2017, 07:43 AM   #108
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
I agree with this, with the exception that Trump has no balls.

(Metaphorically, of course.)

[...].
Oh please stop. He's a bad POTUS, but must one turn this thread into a discussion of "(Metaphorically, of course.)" sexual slurs?

I can't stand the pos POTUS, but these kind of slurs are what we can easily imagine coming from Donald Trump himself during the 2016 campaign.
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Old 19th May 2017, 08:09 AM   #109
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I don't see this as being a very significant factor. No military force in the world can challenge the might of the US military and the ones who come the closest are mostly close US allies. It's true enough that incompetent management from above could make any such resolution more costly to the US forces, but that's about it.
Welcome to not the point. The beast occupying the Oval Office is abysmally stupid in addition to its myriad of other faults. Not only could we end up in a war for little good reason (again) but it could easily choose the wrong target.

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There are only two likely significant flashpoints at this time: North Korea and the Baltics.
That's just naive because there is no way to be certain where we might next be engaged militarily. There are over 7 billion people in the world and America has proven we'll go to war over the tiniest fraction of that.
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Old 19th May 2017, 08:30 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
The impeachment of Trump will be based on a Republican congress willing to impeach a Republican president.
It cannot be assumed that Republicans will be the majority in Congress when impeachment is implemented.

Nixon's resignation came after a vote to impeach lasting more than a year of investigation.

If Democrats were to take control of the House then it is very likely that Trump's term in office will not last a full term.

Last edited by dejudge; 19th May 2017 at 08:37 AM.
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Old 19th May 2017, 08:38 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by dejudge View Post
It cannot be assumed that Republicans will be the majority in Congress when impeachment is implemented.

Nixon's resignation came after a vote to impeach more than a year of investigation.

If Democrats were to take control of the House then it is very likely that Trump's term in office will not last a full term.
Impeachment in the House requires only a simple majority, but the Senate needs to convict with a 2/3 supermajority. Even in the very unlikely event that the Democrats would take every Senate seat in the 2018 midterms, they wouldn't have a 2/3 majority. So ultimately, it comes down to Republican support.
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Old 19th May 2017, 08:51 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by dejudge View Post
It cannot be assumed that Republicans will be the majority in Congress when impeachment is implemented.

Nixon's resignation came after a vote to impeach lasting more than a year of investigation.

If Democrats were to take control of the House then it is very likely that Trump's term in office will not last a full term.
There was no impeachment vote on Nixon. He was informed that if there was one, he would lose.

The Democrats need control of the Senate for the Impeachment to pass.

Times change. Loyalty to party is of paramount importance, above loyalty to country. There would have to be overwhelming evidence against Trump and even then a lot of Republicans will not vote to impeach.
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Old 19th May 2017, 08:53 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Impeachment in the House requires only a simple majority, but the Senate needs to convict with a 2/3 supermajority. Even in the very unlikely event that the Democrats would take every Senate seat in the 2018 midterms, they wouldn't have a 2/3 majority. So ultimately, it comes down to Republican support.
Again, if impeachment in the House requires a simple majority then once the Democrats take control of the House and the impeachment vote occurs after November 6 2018 then Trump is likely to be impeached or forced to resign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...lections,_2018

Quote:
The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 6, 2018. Elections will be held to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states...
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Old 19th May 2017, 08:56 AM   #114
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Originally Posted by dejudge View Post
Again, if impeachment in the House requires a simple majority then once the Democrats take control of the House and the impeachment vote occurs after November 6 2018 then Trump is likely to be impeached or forced to resign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...lections,_2018
Impeaching him wouldn't remove him from office, he would also have to be convicted in the Senate (by 2/3 vote) for that to happen.

Bill Clinton was impeached but not convicted in the Senate so he remained president until the end of the term.
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Old 19th May 2017, 09:00 AM   #115
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Originally Posted by dejudge View Post
Again, if impeachment in the House requires a simple majority then once the Democrats take control of the House and the impeachment vote occurs after November 6 2018 then Trump is likely to be impeached or forced to resign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...lections,_2018
Impeachment is not removal from office. Both Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached. However the Senate did not convict them and they remained in office.

ETA: Ninja'd by Stark Enterprises.
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Old 19th May 2017, 09:05 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
Impeachment is not removal from office. Both Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached. However the Senate did not convict them and they remained in office.

ETA: Ninja'd by Stark Enterprises.
The question " Is a a Trump impeachment likely?"

Trump's impeachment is likely.

Last edited by dejudge; 19th May 2017 at 09:07 AM.
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Old 19th May 2017, 09:07 AM   #117
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Anyway, unless Ladbrokes predicted a Trump presidency, I don't think they have the demonstrated competency to accurately predict a Trump impeachment.
Ladbrokes don't make predictions, they take bets. They set the odds depending on how the bets are made. More gamblers are betting on a Trump impeachment and that lowers the odds accordingly.
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Old 19th May 2017, 09:10 AM   #118
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Originally Posted by dejudge View Post
It cannot be assumed that Republicans will be the majority in Congress when impeachment is implemented.

Nixon's resignation came after a vote to impeach lasting more than a year of investigation.

If Democrats were to take control of the House then it is very likely that Trump's term in office will not last a full term.
Originally Posted by dejudge View Post
The question " Is a a Trump impeachment likely?"

Trump's impeachment is likely.
Technically, you're right there, but not with the highlighted conclusion - as Tony Stark, Spindrift and me have been trying to tell you. Impeachment does not mean removal of office, you need a subsequent Senate vote with 2/3 majority on that.
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Old 19th May 2017, 09:16 AM   #119
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Donald Trump will resign because he wants to spend less time with his family.
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Old 19th May 2017, 10:00 AM   #120
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Republicans will resist as long as possible, and they might find one or two new dodges in this list from Art Buchwald, c.1973:

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