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Old 1st February 2020, 02:06 PM   #1
Notrump
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Cool The On-Demand, Autonomous & Electric Disruption of Transportation

Below is a link to a video of a presentation regarding “Disruption of Transportation” for the 2020 North Carolina DOT Summit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y916mxoio0E
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Old 1st February 2020, 02:16 PM   #2
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yt;dw

Less cool shades, more exposition, please.
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Old 1st February 2020, 10:47 PM   #3
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It won't just be transportation. Everything will change.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 03:57 AM   #4
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There were a lot of errors in that video. For example, the best technology today for self-driving cars is level 2 and the companies have no idea how to get to level 3. Yet, according to the video level 4 and 5 are almost here. His most laughable claim was that 95% of all car miles will be by autonomous electric vehicles by 2030.

I also don't know of any application of EVs for grid services nor does it make logical sense to use your car for grid services. However, if you had a separate battery pack then the 100 kwh capacity would indeed power the average home for 3 days. On the other hand, I don't know how you could recharge it using solar. You would need at least 6,000 sq ft of solar voltaic panels which would be about 3x the floor area of a typical house. In other words, that won't fit on the roof.

He played up the expansion of Uber but didn't mention the failings of Uber. I also have no idea how he arrived at 2,000 moving parts in a gasoline power train. The engine is only about 150 and there are fewer in the transmission. He claimed double exponential learning for AI. That's odd considering how dumb the smartest AI still is.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 06:18 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
There were a lot of errors in that video. For example, the best technology today for self-driving cars is level 2 and the companies have no idea how to get to level 3. Yet, according to the video level 4 and 5 are almost here. His most laughable claim was that 95% of all car miles will be by autonomous electric vehicles by 2030.

I also don't know of any application of EVs for grid services nor does it make logical sense to use your car for grid services. However, if you had a separate battery pack then the 100 kwh capacity would indeed power the average home for 3 days. On the other hand, I don't know how you could recharge it using solar. You would need at least 6,000 sq ft of solar voltaic panels which would be about 3x the floor area of a typical house. In other words, that won't fit on the roof.

He played up the expansion of Uber but didn't mention the failings of Uber. I also have no idea how he arrived at 2,000 moving parts in a gasoline power train. The engine is only about 150 and there are fewer in the transmission. He claimed double exponential learning for AI. That's odd considering how dumb the smartest AI still is.
Agreed. This kind of speculation ignores practical reality.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 06:30 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
yt;dw

Less cool shades, more exposition, please.
Baloney happy clappy green idiocy.

Hope that helps.
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Old 3rd February 2020, 08:58 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by abaddon View Post
Baloney happy clappy green idiocy.

Hope that helps.
I am not sure this qualifies as idiocy at all. He certainly could be wrong, but it was thoughtful, and no futurist is always right.
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Old 4th February 2020, 12:37 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Red Baron Farms View Post
I am not sure this qualifies as idiocy at all. He certainly could be wrong, but it was thoughtful, and no futurist is always right.
As I've already mentioned, he is wrong about a number of things. He cherry picks his results to make himself seem more accurate. Did you notice how often he repeated that he was right? When you are actually right, you don't really have to keep telling people that you are.

I've read a number of articles written by actual Uber drivers. Their usual tactic is to have a high pay rate when they first set up in a city. This creates a lot of drivers. But, then over time they lower the pay rate and people drop out.

I've seen articles about those electric scooters you can rent. All of the articles I've seen were positive, but I thought these scooters were ridiculous when I saw them in Indianapolis. Now we see that the great scooter wave is in decline.

There are only two charge stations near me and both are at superstores. At the Walmart, the cost through Electrify America is the same as I would pay for $2.50 a gallon gas and 18 mpg for my Jeep. The Tesla station at Meijer is half the price but of course you can't fast charge a non-Tesla there.

Perhaps the strangest thing that he said though was bragging about the longevity of the EV powertrain. If this is true then the market will saturate and companies like Tesla will have to drastically cut production. This has already happened to Apple.
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Old 4th February 2020, 02:01 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
As I've already mentioned, he is wrong about a number of things. He cherry picks his results to make himself seem more accurate. Did you notice how often he repeated that he was right? When you are actually right, you don't really have to keep telling people that you are.

I've read a number of articles written by actual Uber drivers. Their usual tactic is to have a high pay rate when they first set up in a city. This creates a lot of drivers. But, then over time they lower the pay rate and people drop out.

I've seen articles about those electric scooters you can rent. All of the articles I've seen were positive, but I thought these scooters were ridiculous when I saw them in Indianapolis. Now we see that the great scooter wave is in decline.

There are only two charge stations near me and both are at superstores. At the Walmart, the cost through Electrify America is the same as I would pay for $2.50 a gallon gas and 18 mpg for my Jeep. The Tesla station at Meijer is half the price but of course you can't fast charge a non-Tesla there.

Perhaps the strangest thing that he said though was bragging about the longevity of the EV powertrain. If this is true then the market will saturate and companies like Tesla will have to drastically cut production. This has already happened to Apple.
I spotted the infrastructure problem myself, and in fact it is and was part of my Red Baron Project master plan years before.😊

So absolutely I agree with what you are saying. However, if I can spot this years ago, I am quite sure there are others that can also spot it, and at least some of those people with actual capital to turn a plan into reality. :P

Saturating the electric powertrain market seems to me to be one of those problems I would love to have. Much like owning a company struggling to meet demand. Sure it can be a problem, the world should be so lucky to be full of such problems :P
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Old 4th February 2020, 02:09 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
There are only two charge stations near me and both are at superstores. At the Walmart, the cost through Electrify America is the same as I would pay for $2.50 a gallon gas and 18 mpg for my Jeep. The Tesla station at Meijer is half the price but of course you can't fast charge a non-Tesla there.

Perhaps the strangest thing that he said though was bragging about the longevity of the EV powertrain. If this is true then the market will saturate and companies like Tesla will have to drastically cut production. This has already happened to Apple.
I gather most people charge at home. Charging stations are expanding - the office park I work in had one (double) installed three years ago, now they've got three more doubles. Not fast chargers, but employees can charge their cars while at work. (This is a pretty big office park with about 25 buildings and a hotel, each building somewhere around 300 employees if full). Not sure of the cost, though.

I imagine the number of charging stations will expand as the market expands - at hotels/motels, office parks, parking garages, shopping malls and such.

As for market saturation, Tesla is still a bit player in the overall market, even with powertrain longevity they would could grow significantly before they would ever saturate the market. Not to mention that many cars, perhaps the majority, get scrapped before the powertrain is totally worn out - they get in wrecks, get sold again and again. People who can afford will always be willing to sell the old car to get a new one, even if the powertrain still works perfectly.
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Old 5th February 2020, 04:07 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Red Baron Farms View Post
However, if I can spot this years ago, I am quite sure there are others that can also spot it, and at least some of those people with actual capital to turn a plan into reality.
So, you believe that Elon Musk could reduce his ego enough to stop using an incompatible plug? I don't see that ever happening.

Quote:
Saturating the electric powertrain market seems to me to be one of those problems I would love to have. Much like owning a company struggling to meet demand. Sure it can be a problem, the world should be so lucky to be full of such problems
The world has had that problem. In 1940, ERCO certified the Ercoupe, but few were built during WWII. In 1945, they began manufacturing units using high volume techniques they had learned during the war. By the end of 1946 the market was saturated. They sold the design in 1947 and stopped building aircraft. Apple has reached saturation. They are offsetting this with some subscription services. However, they also have official policies of non-repair for their products at Apple stores and are lobbying hard to stop others from repairing Apple hardware. John Deere is doing the same thing. How long can this strategy work?
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Old 5th February 2020, 04:10 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
I gather most people charge at home.
Try doing that at an apartment.
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Old 5th February 2020, 04:39 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
if you had a separate battery pack then the 100 kwh capacity would indeed power the average home for 3 days. On the other hand, I don't know how you could recharge it using solar. You would need at least 6,000 sq ft of solar voltaic panels
You lost me with this statement. Why would one need 6000 sq ft of solar panels to recharge a battery pack? It seems like there is an element missing. Within a certain time window? With a certain load?
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Old 5th February 2020, 08:21 PM   #14
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Assume for the moment that the video is even half-correct.

How do you* or I individually take advantage of the prediction? What do we invest in, what do we sell, what do we do? And when?




* ETA, that's a generic "you."
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Old 5th February 2020, 08:50 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
There were a lot of errors in that video. For example, the best technology today for self-driving cars is level 2 and the companies have no idea how to get to level 3. Yet, according to the video level 4 and 5 are almost here. His most laughable claim was that 95% of all car miles will be by autonomous electric vehicles by 2030.

I also don't know of any application of EVs for grid services nor does it make logical sense to use your car for grid services. However, if you had a separate battery pack then the 100 kwh capacity would indeed power the average home for 3 days. On the other hand, I don't know how you could recharge it using solar. You would need at least 6,000 sq ft of solar voltaic panels which would be about 3x the floor area of a typical house. In other words, that won't fit on the roof.

He played up the expansion of Uber but didn't mention the failings of Uber. I also have no idea how he arrived at 2,000 moving parts in a gasoline power train. The engine is only about 150 and there are fewer in the transmission. He claimed double exponential learning for AI. That's odd considering how dumb the smartest AI still is.
Check your math. 6,000 sq ft of PV panels will produce over 500KWH of power per day on average with current tech. I have a PV system in the back yard that's about 700 sq ft and it has produced an average of around 45KWH/day over the last 10 years. Things have improved a bit since then.
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Old 5th February 2020, 09:10 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by barehl View Post
As I've already mentioned, he is wrong about a number of things. He cherry picks his results to make himself seem more accurate. Did you notice how often he repeated that he was right? When you are actually right, you don't really have to keep telling people that you are.
It seems to me that someone who makes accurate predictions would want to point that out. And having been right about past predictions really is a good reason to trust someone's current prediction, or at least to to adjust your credence in those predictions upwards.

The idea that you seem to espouse here, that his pointing out that he was right in the past is a reason to treat his current predictions as less reliable makes no sense to me.
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Old 6th February 2020, 02:40 AM   #17
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England and Wales have brought back by 5 years the phasing out of internal. combustion engine cars.

Plus Nissan Leaf makes longest autonomous trip in the UK. https://www.theguardian.com/business...ongest-journey
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Old 7th February 2020, 06:52 PM   #18
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I would take predictions about the future by experts very cautiously. They are often wrong. I know this for a fact because he said so. At odd times they can be right. They then advertise this fact, ignoring all the other times when they were wrong.
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Old 7th February 2020, 11:46 PM   #19
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Just found an old (2016) version of the slide show. I hope you are enjoying your self driving car. Because that is what we have now.See page 49 of my link.

http://www.eppo.go.th/images/Infroma...Disruption.pdf (pdf)
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Old 8th February 2020, 12:15 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Just found an old (2016) version of the slide show. I hope you are enjoying your self driving car. Because that is what we have now.See page 49 of my link.

http://www.eppo.go.th/images/Infroma...Disruption.pdf (pdf)
Are you treating the quote from Elon Musk as though it were a prediction of Tony Seba?
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Old 8th February 2020, 01:37 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
Are you treating the quote from Elon Musk as though it were a prediction of Tony Seba?
I think it is reasonable to do so. Tony is quoting it so I assume he believed it a reasonable prediction. One that is way off.
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Old 8th February 2020, 02:13 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I think it is reasonable to do so. Tony is quoting it so I assume he believed it a reasonable prediction. One that is way off.
He clearly used the quote to suggest that experts on the matter agree that it's coming soon. Whether he endorses a similar timeline isn't obvious at all. I think if we want to judge his predictions we should judge his actual predictions.

I do agree with you that it's dangerous to count the hits and not the misses. My objection with what barehl said was not to suggest that his claimed hits were reason to put high credence in his views. Rather that they shouldn't lower the credence we put in his views.
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Old 8th February 2020, 02:53 AM   #23
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I am less interested in when exactly the AI is up to the job for full autonomous vehicles, than I am the disruptive fallout he claims will happen WHEN full autonomous vehicles hit the market. I am fairly sure at some point very soon it will happen, and electric vehicles are here too. So it seems to me at some point all the factors he claims will be sparking disruptive rapid change will occur relatively soon. But will they create the perfect storm of change he claims? .... I am not convinced actually. But I think he makes a good case it could be plausible.

It's not a given that the effect will be what he predicts. Maybe, but there are so many intangibles.
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Old 9th February 2020, 10:27 AM   #24
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Maker of electric vehicle chargers teams up with truck stops to bring more than 4,000 charging stations nationwide

Quote:
ChargePoint and the National Association of Truck Stop Operators announced Friday at a conference in Aurora that they are working together to build high-speed charging stations at more than 4,000 truck stops and travel plazas across the country by 2030.
These are not Tesla-specific, but they are not as fast as the Tesla Super Chargers either.

Another fast option is to attach charging stations to streetlamps - the power supply is already there, with surplus power available because most streetlamps now use bulbs that are more energy efficient than what was available when the lamps were first installed. London and Los Angeles are both doing that, it seems to be coming along faster in Europe than America. LA is clearly doing it to address concerns about charging points for renters.

I don't know how much more disruption on-demand services will offer beyond what they already have. I don't know when fully autonomous vehicles will hit the mass market.

But electric vehicles are clearly in the pipeline and re ramping up fast - and it will be disruptive to many of the big American companies as their internal culture seems befuddled by the concept. I think GM dropping the Plug-in Hybrid Volt while rolling out the all electric Hummer will not sell well - the sorts of people who like Hummers also like the aesthetics of big rumbling engines - this despite the fact that the current GM all electric, the Bolt, is better designed than the Nissan Leaf, which is the current best selling electric vehicle worldwide (Bolt has battery cooling [as does Tesla], Leaf does not, and older Leafs have lost the majority of battery capacity after ten years or so, an issue not seen with GM or Tesla electric vehicles).

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Old 10th February 2020, 05:25 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
I don't know how much more disruption on-demand services will offer beyond what they already have. I don't know when fully autonomous vehicles will hit the mass market.
Fully autonomous might never hit mass market, they could just be ride share and transport services. Look at the direction of Cruise Automation, as that might suggest what the long term plans are.

Quote:
But electric vehicles are clearly in the pipeline and re ramping up fast - and it will be disruptive to many of the big American companies as their internal culture seems befuddled by the concept. I think GM dropping the Plug-in Hybrid Volt while rolling out the all electric Hummer will not sell well - the sorts of people who like Hummers also like the aesthetics of big rumbling engines - this despite the fact that the current GM all electric, the Bolt, is better designed than the Nissan Leaf, which is the current best selling electric vehicle worldwide (Bolt has battery cooling [as does Tesla], Leaf does not, and older Leafs have lost the majority of battery capacity after ten years or so, an issue not seen with GM or Tesla electric vehicles).
The Hummer is just one of many electric vehicles GM plans, but it is one with name recognition.
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Old 10th February 2020, 10:33 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Disbelief View Post
The Hummer is just one of many electric vehicles GM plans, but it is one with name recognition.
Who has the ordinary pick up truck in all electric?
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Old 10th February 2020, 11:23 AM   #27
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I still want to know what to DO about this prediction, even if it's only half-correct!


Do I buy Tesla now, do I buy and short-sell GM or Ford?

Do I invest in X and not in Y, or if I have stock in X, do I divest myself of it now?


Or do I just keep an eye on the situation and do nothing?
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Old 10th February 2020, 11:32 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by Red Baron Farms View Post
Who has the ordinary pick up truck in all electric?
Ford is supposed to be making an electric F-150 and Rivian is soon to be producing. What do you classify as normal?
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Old 10th February 2020, 11:41 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by Disbelief View Post
Ford is supposed to be making an electric F-150 and Rivian is soon to be producing. What do you classify as normal?
just a cab and a bed, no bullet proof stealth or hummer over engineering. Something a farmer can go grab a load of fertilizer or compost and not worry about mucking up an over priced "designer" vehicle.

You know, a pick up truck!
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Old 10th February 2020, 11:44 AM   #30
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Deleted, misread the thread.
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Old 10th February 2020, 11:54 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
As always this kind of Ludditism pretends that it isn't already piss easy to cause massive disruptions in transportation with people behind the wheels.
I think you are discussing a completely different sort of disruption than everyone else in the thread. This about market disruption, disruption of the style of use, not traffic disruption.
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Old 10th February 2020, 11:56 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
I think you are discussing a completely different sort of disruption than everyone else in the thread. This about market disruption, disruption of the style of use, not traffic disruption.
Huh... you are correct. I thought the continuation of a different thread.
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Old 10th February 2020, 12:03 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Red Baron Farms View Post
just a cab and a bed, no bullet proof stealth or hummer over engineering. Something a farmer can go grab a load of fertilizer or compost and not worry about mucking up an over priced "designer" vehicle.

You know, a pick up truck!
This is a point I can agree with. Many people just use pickups as-is. Tesla might compete for those users.

But a huge segment of the pickup market relies on the modular design of pickups. Very easy to remove the bed and replace it with a utility bed, cargo box, flat bed, tank/pump setups, welding rigs, cranes, even. Easy to attach tool mounts, ladder racks, lift gates, and all manner of dohickies and whatzits. Easy to beat the hell out of the bed and then just go swap it out for a new used one from a scrap yard. Easy to mount a very wide variety of camper shells and cargo boxes.

Telsa needs to compete with that simple modularity that makes pickups so functional.

That said, I think there is a good chance they'll figure that out and find a way to make it happen.
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Old 10th February 2020, 12:09 PM   #34
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"Sport's Trucks" are a viable market niche; the Ford F-150 Lightning and Raptor, the Dodge Ram SRT-10 series, the Chevy Silverado LTZ, etc.

A Ford Raptor starts at about 55 grand and quickly go up to nearly 6 digits and nobody is throwing bales of hay in the back of those things.

The Cybertruck could cut into that market a bit.
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Old 10th February 2020, 12:29 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Red Baron Farms View Post
just a cab and a bed, no bullet proof stealth or hummer over engineering. Something a farmer can go grab a load of fertilizer or compost and not worry about mucking up an over priced "designer" vehicle.

You know, a pick up truck!
There's nothing about the Hummer that says it can't be used as a pick up, at least from the pictures that have been released. Like I said, might be an F-150 coming and also the pick up from Rivian. The first trucks probably would not be targeted at farmers anyway, but might be for construction/professional use besides early adopters.
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