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Old Today, 12:46 PM   #2081
marting
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Originally Posted by JesseCuster View Post
The only part of the article I took issue with was the exact part of the article you quoted. The death toll in the UK is currently over 7,000 and in 1 or 2 days will overtake the 8,000 figure he says he feels it won't pass. He's simply way, way off here. This article is just one of many opinions I've come across online determined to equate the COVID-19 pandemic to something like seasonal flu. Even if it's nowhere near as bad as the worst case scenarios being thrown around, he (and others) are grossly downplaying the seriousness of it.

I never had a go at you for agreeing with anything else in the article, never mind "every last detail". I simply corrected the part of the article you went to the trouble of quoting.
Current projections are that UK deaths will exceed those in the USA. IHME is projecting 66k deaths, about 10% more and peaking 3 days later than the USA. This is consistent with the UK distancing being done several days later. It's also much higher a percentage of the population than the USA which probably also benefits from lower population density.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
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Old Today, 12:48 PM   #2082
Dr.Sid
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
938 confirmed deaths in UK today
That's first league.
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Old Today, 01:43 PM   #2083
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Yep. They're definitely over the hump - mind you, that was obvious when they started taking other patients and lending equipment.
(About Germany.) Last Friday the head of the Robert Koch Institute said in his press briefing that the reproduction number was around 1. But now (yesterday morning) he apparantly said that it's gone up a bit (to between 1.2 and 1.5). Not sure what that's based on: the figures on Worldometer don't seem to show this.

Ah: found their daily report, which gives 1.2 most recently (range 0.9-1.6).
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Old Today, 02:01 PM   #2084
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Today's numbers for Michigan are in. Slightly less than 1400 new cases today. That's the smallest since March 31. Flattening the curve? I think it's a good sign.

We had 1900 five days ago, and 1700 yesterday, with all other days in April close to 1500.

Definitely getting away from the exponential growth, if it holds up.

ETA: Looks like US overall numbers might also be down, and New York definitely down. Deaths are up, but they lag behind new cases.

ETA2: Spoke too soon. I checked again, and Nevada reported 22,000 new cases, which pushes the US overall numbers way higher. Presumably a change in the way reporting is done. Definitely needs investigation.

ETA3: I have to wonder if there's a data entry error on the site I'm looking at for Nevada. I would think that would be major headline news. Seems suspicious.

ETA4: And...the data entry error is fixed, Nevada is back to where it ought to be, and that means fewer new cases for the US today than yesterday, although it seems different states report differently. New York goes up throughout the day, but Michigan reports in one big block sometime in the mid afternoon, so there could be more cases coming in today.

Last edited by Meadmaker; Today at 02:55 PM.
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Old Today, 02:01 PM   #2085
JesseCuster
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Current projections are that UK deaths will exceed those in the USA. IHME is projecting 66k deaths, about 10% more and peaking 3 days later than the USA. This is consistent with the UK distancing being done several days later. It's also much higher a percentage of the population than the USA which probably also benefits from lower population density.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
Wow. That's a bleak outlook.

I really hope things don't get anywhere near that bad.
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Old Today, 02:16 PM   #2086
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
And just to keep everyone on their toes, a predictable side effect of the shutdowns: rats!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52177587
I suggest that many of these rats will starve to death. Areas that used to have rats will soon be rat free. Even areas where the rats went to will soon have the same numbers as before. Exceptions
1. If humans provide food for the rats when they did not before, they will breed.
2. Pest control may kill off many rats.

The only good news for the rats is that when humans go back to normal the rats will start to breed again and will return to normal numbers.
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Old Today, 02:33 PM   #2087
marting
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Originally Posted by JesseCuster View Post
Wow. That's a bleak outlook.

I really hope things don't get anywhere near that bad.
Me too. Shows just how important shutdowns/social distancing timing is.

For instance if the USA had delayed shutdown for a week, we would be looking at a projected 200K-300K deaths instead of 60k. On the opposite side, if the USA had shutdown 3/12 instead of 3/19 the totals would be closer to 10k.

Such is exponential growth/decay.
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Old Today, 02:35 PM   #2088
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Current projections are that UK deaths will exceed those in the USA. IHME is projecting 66k deaths, about 10% more and peaking 3 days later than the USA. This is consistent with the UK distancing being done several days later. It's also much higher a percentage of the population than the USA which probably also benefits from lower population density.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
As I posted on another thread the model is wrong. It predicts current UK need is for 12,000 ITU beds and 10,000 ventilators as against 800 available ITU beds, Yet currently the country is sitting with empty ITU beds (even in London). It predicts 1200 deaths against 800 actual deaths. So empirically this model is wrong and you should not rely on its predictions.
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Old Today, 02:37 PM   #2089
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I suggest that many of these rats will starve to death. Areas that used to have rats will soon be rat free. Even areas where the rats went to will soon have the same numbers as before. Exceptions
1. If humans provide food for the rats when they did not before, they will breed.
2. Pest control may kill off many rats.

The only good news for the rats is that when humans go back to normal the rats will start to breed again and will return to normal numbers.
Also the urban foxes will be having litters, the rats will provide a nice food source for the foxes.
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Old Today, 03:07 PM   #2090
JesseCuster
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Current projections are that UK deaths will exceed those in the USA. IHME is projecting 66k deaths, about 10% more and peaking 3 days later than the USA. This is consistent with the UK distancing being done several days later. It's also much higher a percentage of the population than the USA which probably also benefits from lower population density.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
They're forecasting 401 deaths totals for here in Ireland (with uncertainty ranging from 329 to 501)

Given that the currently death tool here is up to 235, that sounds like a good outcome for the future if we can keep total deaths down to twice or less than twice what they currently are.
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Old Today, 03:38 PM   #2091
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Finally some antibody tests .. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...365v1.full.pdf

And it's not good. Out of 175 ex-positive 10 had none detected and 42 levels too low to likely allow reinfection. Together almost 1/3.
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Old Today, 03:56 PM   #2092
rjh01
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
Also the urban foxes will be having litters, the rats will provide a nice food source for the foxes.
Good thought. You can extend that idea too. A hungry rat goes up to a cat (or dog) and asks to be fed. Cat thinks the rat is offering itself for dinner and so has an easy meal. Though cats do need training on how to kill a rat as they can fight back. So cats and dogs will have some more food. But this would only be temporary. Once the rats have died so will the foxes, who will also have issues with lack of food.
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