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Old 12th April 2019, 12:17 AM   #1521
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Listening to the radio yesterday, it seems that Theresa May's only plan is to keep coming back to parliament over the next 6 months with exactly the same deal until parliament says yes. There appears to be no Plan B.

IMO the talks with Labour about compromise have unfortunately turned out to be the canard I feared it would be. Theresa May expected all the compromise to come from Labour.

Unless the UK gives up some of its red lines - and so far there isn't the slightest inkling that the government are even thinking about it - then the current deal and no deal are the only alternatives which are possible that the government is prepare to countenance. I'm not sure what might change in the next 6 months to change that. Conservative MPs will be being harangued by their association members during the parliamentary recesses and will come back even more sure that the only answer is a no-deal and Jeremy Corbyn is going to fritter away any political capital he may have on people like Julian Assange
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Old 12th April 2019, 12:31 AM   #1522
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Listening to the radio yesterday, it seems that Theresa May's only plan is to keep coming back to parliament over the next 6 months with exactly the same deal until parliament says yes. There appears to be no Plan B.

IMO the talks with Labour about compromise have unfortunately turned out to be the canard I feared it would be. Theresa May expected all the compromise to come from Labour.

Unless the UK gives up some of its red lines - and so far there isn't the slightest inkling that the government are even thinking about it - then the current deal and no deal are the only alternatives which are possible that the government is prepare to countenance. I'm not sure what might change in the next 6 months to change that.
Unless something convinces >150 MPs a no deal Brexit is better than kicking the can further down the road expect another delay at worst. Then another and another until such time as either another referendum is finally called, an early election is called or parliamentary term ends in 2021 and a regular election is called, hopefully reshuffling the cards.

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Conservative MPs will be being harangued by their association members during the parliamentary recesses and will come back even more sure that the only answer is a no-deal and Jeremy Corbyn is going to fritter away any political capital he may have on people scum like Julian Assange
FTFY.

Corbyn faces another leadership challenge before the next regularily scheduled election. If he only kicks the can down the road, keeps embracing Brexit and keeps preventing any meaningful resolution to the situation, he might be replaced then.

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Old 12th April 2019, 03:28 AM   #1523
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We have now reached a stalemate.

Parliament has demonstrated that it is capable of taking control and preventing a no deal exit, so that threat has been nullified mostly.

While we can remain in this limbo I don't think there will be enough of an impetus to pass either a second referendum or revoke A50.

And the question is whether ERG and DUP will blink and support the withdrawal agreement but I think they've probably dug in too deep now to backtrack.

I don't see the Tories calling a GE when they are in disarray and could lose.

So I am pretty flummoxed as to how this ends now.

Unless the Tories can change the leader to a harder Brexiteer who persuades a swathe of their MPs to back no deal. Or the EU sets stipulations on a further extension to either force a GE, a second referendum, revocation or SOMETHING!
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Old 12th April 2019, 03:33 AM   #1524
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
We have now reached a stalemate.

Parliament has demonstrated that it is capable of taking control and preventing a no deal exit, so that threat has been nullified mostly.

While we can remain in this limbo I don't think there will be enough of an impetus to pass either a second referendum or revoke A50.

And the question is whether ERG and DUP will blink and support the withdrawal agreement but I think they've probably dug in too deep now to backtrack.

I don't see the Tories calling a GE when they are in disarray and could lose.

So I am pretty flummoxed as to how this ends now.

Unless the Tories can change the leader to a harder Brexiteer who persuades a swathe of their MPs to back no deal. Or the EU sets stipulations on a further extension to either force a GE, a second referendum, revocation or SOMETHING!
EU can just kick the can down the road until 2022, when a next regularily scheduled general election takes place anyway. The very threat of that might work. If not the new Parliament might be wise enough to do one of the four things it can do: revoke article 50, call a referendum, ratify the WA or leave with no deal.

If not there's always 2026.

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Old 12th April 2019, 04:05 AM   #1525
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
So I am pretty flummoxed as to how this ends now.
If EU elections go ahead in Britain then the sole remaining objection to a never-ending delay is removed. I think, therefore, that the only logically consistent outcomes are a never-ending series of delays or the end of human history. Everything else has been categorically ruled out. And I think it would be a typically British compromise to establish that we are at some point leaving the EU, but never actually to do so. It keeps the leavers happy because they've got their way in theory, and they never really cared about what would happen in reality; it keeps the remainers happy because they've got their way in reality; and it keeps the rest of Europe deeply unhappy, thoroughly pissed off with Britain, but having to grit their teeth and just barely tolerate us, which has the natural order of things since about the 12th Century. Which, of course, will even keep Jacob Rees-Mogg happy, though that's more of a bug than a feature.

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Old 12th April 2019, 04:51 AM   #1526
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Not sure quite how indicative this is but there was a by-election in Leith Walk (Edinburgh) this week and the SNP and Green (the two indy supporting parties) took 60% of the vote between them. Labour and Tory polled 15% and 10% respectively.

Obviously Scotland very different to (Little) England but looking at second preferences only 8% of Tory voters had UKIP as second preference, and only 20% of UKIP voters had Tory as their second preference.
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Old 12th April 2019, 05:05 AM   #1527
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Not sure quite how indicative this is but there was a by-election in Leith Walk (Edinburgh) this week and the SNP and Green (the two indy supporting parties) took 60% of the vote between them. Labour and Tory polled 15% and 10% respectively.

Obviously Scotland very different to (Little) England but looking at second preferences only 8% of Tory voters had UKIP as second preference, and only 20% of UKIP voters had Tory as their second preference.
It's quite indicative of how the electoral district of Leith Walk thinks at this moment in time.

Beyond that ... I wouldn't hold my breath.

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Old 12th April 2019, 06:15 AM   #1528
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It's quite indicative of how the electoral district of Leith Walk thinks at this moment in time.

Beyond that ... I wouldn't hold my breath.

McHrozni
And in fairness Edinburgh voted 75/25 to remain.
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Old 12th April 2019, 06:22 AM   #1529
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
And in fairness Edinburgh voted 75/25 to remain.
What do the swings look like from the previous election?

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Old 12th April 2019, 06:58 AM   #1530
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I don't see the Tories calling a GE when they are in disarray and could lose.
Actually in the hands of the DUP, or a small number of ERG hardliners resigning the Conservative whip.
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Old 12th April 2019, 07:26 AM   #1531
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The longer it drags on however the greater the chance of something passing - my money is on another referendum. An extension of 6 months is enough to run one (if not another extension of a few weeks would surely be granted), it's the only sensible thing to do and the one, perhaps the only thing that can resolve Brexit one way or the other.
In your opinion, which has a greater likelihood of happening: another referendum or May stepping aside, resulting in a PM election.

Actually, same question for all the Brexit savants here.
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Old 12th April 2019, 07:51 AM   #1532
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I'll just leave this here:

https://thebrexitparty.com/

Thanks to Led by Donkeys
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Old 12th April 2019, 11:32 AM   #1533
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Is there an official Brexit drinking game yet? I'm tempted to reach for the spirits every time Theresa May or one of her fast-dwindling inner circle says "The only way to [insert desired outcome here] is to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement," anybody in the ERG uses the word "betrayal," or Jeremy Corbyn evades a question on whether there should be a second referendum.

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Old 12th April 2019, 11:43 AM   #1534
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Originally Posted by erwinl View Post
Seeing the likes of Farage, I have no illusions that newly elected British EU MP's will work in a constructive wayfor the EU. Seeing as the lot will be out in a few months anyway, so why act for the common good?

Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised and then I will certainly say that. But seeing the willfull inability of British MP's to work together and compromise? No. I'm pessimistic.
I hope you'll be pleasantly surprised, those of us who hope that this mistake can still be corrected plan to be out in force. We will be trying to make a point and maybe make up in some small way for inflicting Farage on you all. I know nothing can ever make up for inflicting Farage on anyone.


We're sorry.
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Old 12th April 2019, 11:47 AM   #1535
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
Or as the Irish call it: Tuesday.
That's racist. I'm English and concur.
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Old 12th April 2019, 03:13 PM   #1536
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
That's racist. I'm English and concur.
I was going to say: Or as my mom calls it: Tuesday. But that only makes sense if you knew she was Irish.
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Old 13th April 2019, 02:01 AM   #1537
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Just like the MPs, I am having a break from brexit. I am just glad worries about possibly needing a visa for our holiday in June have gone.
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Old 13th April 2019, 03:36 AM   #1538
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I'm glad the whole Brexit thing can now go away and nobody needs to think or talk about it for about five months.

Also, I'm relieved that I can now go and work in Dublin at the end of May without all sorts of unnecessary paperwork.
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Old 13th April 2019, 06:38 AM   #1539
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
I'm glad the whole Brexit thing can now go away and nobody needs to think or talk about it for about five months.

Also, I'm relieved that I can now go and work in Dublin at the end of May without all sorts of unnecessary paperwork.
Five months? That's a bit optimistic. May is still going to try and get her deal through Parliament again so that UK can skip the EU elections and, before that, expect Brexit to play a bit part during the EU elections campaigning.
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Old 13th April 2019, 07:07 AM   #1540
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
I'm glad the whole Brexit thing can now go away and nobody needs to think or talk about it for about five months.

Also, I'm relieved that I can now go and work in Dublin at the end of May without all sorts of unnecessary paperwork.
So you're not too worried about this, then?

Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Anyway, our nominal PM has apparently said that a deal can still be arranged for the UK to leave in May.

I'm not completely convinced of that
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Old 13th April 2019, 11:24 AM   #1541
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Originally Posted by Matthew Best View Post
I'm glad the whole Brexit thing can now go away and nobody needs to think or talk about it for about five months.

Also, I'm relieved that I can now go and work in Dublin at the end of May without all sorts of unnecessary paperwork.
Let me know and I'll give you the special tour...
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Old 13th April 2019, 11:34 AM   #1542
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I'd be curious to know what punters in the UK think the level of support is now for Brexit. I've seen maps turning blue in the hands of some hopeful surveyers, I've heard Farage loudly proclaim the entire nation, 99,5%, is now ready to storm Parliament and hang the traitors, or some such equivalent nonsense.

TLDR: Any reliable polls out?
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Old 13th April 2019, 11:52 AM   #1543
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
We have now reached a stalemate.

Parliament has demonstrated that it is capable of taking control and preventing a no deal exit, so that threat has been nullified mostly.
Which is the thing that scuppered May's entire scheme for delivering Brexit. Form the day she entered Number 10 she knew she couldn't get a good deal but she was counting on scaring Remainer MPs into backing her with the threat that failing to do so would mean a hard Brexit. Given her utter lack of political skills or judgement she's now stuck and all she can think to do is keep trying to make her original plan work even as its painfully obvious to everyone else its dead.
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Old 13th April 2019, 11:59 AM   #1544
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post

TLDR: Any reliable polls out?
Have fun.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/brexit/all

The nation is divided...
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Old 13th April 2019, 02:17 PM   #1545
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
I'd be curious to know what punters in the UK think the level of support is now for Brexit. I've seen maps turning blue in the hands of some hopeful surveyers, I've heard Farage loudly proclaim the entire nation, 99,5%, is now ready to storm Parliament and hang the traitors, or some such equivalent nonsense.

TLDR: Any reliable polls out?
Farage, as usual, talks bollocks.

Six million people have signed a petition to revoke Article 50; one million marches in London to demand a second referendum/people's vote.

Farage and his cronies can barely muster a single-decker bus full of people for their pro-Brexit cross-country ramble.
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Old 13th April 2019, 02:31 PM   #1546
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Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
I'd be curious to know what punters in the UK think the level of support is now for Brexit. I've seen maps turning blue in the hands of some hopeful surveyers, I've heard Farage loudly proclaim the entire nation, 99,5%, is now ready to storm Parliament and hang the traitors, or some such equivalent nonsense.

TLDR: Any reliable polls out?
By the by:

Quote:
The Telegraph has been forced to correct a column by Boris Johnson after the Brexiter MP and potential Tory leadership candidate falsely claimed a no-deal Brexit was the most popular option among the British public.
[...]
An online correction said: “In fact, no poll clearly showed that a no-deal Brexit was more popular than the other options. This correction is being published following a complaint upheld by the Independent Press Standards Organisation.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-boris-johnson

TL;DR: Boris Johnson lied in a newspaper and a watchdog organization forced the paper to publish a correction.
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Old 13th April 2019, 02:59 PM   #1547
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Have fun.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/brexit/all

The nation is divided...
You are a wicked man. Enjoy the chuckles. Hope you choke on a crumpet.
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Old 13th April 2019, 03:52 PM   #1548
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Seen the video of Farrage meeting his "adoring public" in Birmingham? I've been to Birmingham, that didn't exactly look like a representative sample of the population. Did he take a wrong turn and end up in a mid sized town in Cornwall or somewhere?
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Old 13th April 2019, 05:27 PM   #1549
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Did you see the film of the UKIP brexiteeerstrying to 'storm parliament'?

Someone should have told them the place is empty, they are all on holiday.
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Old 13th April 2019, 09:27 PM   #1550
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Originally Posted by Nessie View Post
Just like the MPs, I am having a break from brexit. I am just glad worries about possibly needing a visa for our holiday in June have gone.
Having spent the last six months worrying whether my holiday in Holland at the beginning of April will be disrupted by Brexit I now get to spend the next six months worrying whether my holiday in Cyprus at the beginning of November will be disrupted by Brexit.
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Old 13th April 2019, 10:18 PM   #1551
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Having spent the last six months worrying whether my holiday in Holland at the beginning of April will be disrupted by Brexit I now get to spend the next six months worrying whether my holiday in Cyprus at the beginning of November will be disrupted by Brexit.
Why do you insist on going to these foreign places? You could have a lovely holiday in Blackpool.
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Old 13th April 2019, 11:24 PM   #1552
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
Why do you insist on going to these foreign places? You could have a lovely holiday in Blackpool.
The good news is that after the economic crash that will follow Brexit, no-one apart from the JRMs and BoJos of this world will be able to afford to go on holiday so the point becomes moot
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Old 14th April 2019, 02:45 AM   #1553
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Originally Posted by GnaGnaMan View Post
By the by:


https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-boris-johnson

TL;DR: Boris Johnson lied in a newspaper and a watchdog organization forced the paper to publish a correction.

Quote:
In its defence the Telegraph said Johnson was “entitled to make sweeping generalisations based on his opinions”.

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Old 14th April 2019, 05:12 AM   #1554
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To be fair, Boris Johnson didn't have to suffer those corrections when he was busy making up nonsense as a "reporter" in Brussels.
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Old 14th April 2019, 05:39 AM   #1555
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James Felton
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@JimMFelton

“I have an idea to solve Brexit”
“Do you though?”
“Gonna fix everything, the Irish border, everything”
“It’s a bus isn’t it”
“Bear with me”
“If I go outside am I going to see a bus again Nigel?”
...
“This one’s blue”
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Old 14th April 2019, 07:18 AM   #1556
Information Analyst
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
Why do you insist on going to these foreign places? You could have a lovely holiday in Blackpool.
How gauche! We're going to Bridlington...

Last edited by Information Analyst; 14th April 2019 at 07:22 AM.
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Old 14th April 2019, 07:24 AM   #1557
Captain_Swoop
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
How gauche! We're going to Bridlington...
That's where Hitler wanted to end up on his Yorkshire holiday.
He could only get a trip to Blackpool.
He didn't take it well.

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Old 14th April 2019, 12:14 PM   #1558
Information Analyst
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
That's where Hitler wanted to end up on his Yorkshire holiday.
He could only get a trip to Blackpool.
He didn't take it well.

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Seems about right.
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Old 15th April 2019, 01:51 AM   #1559
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Brexit makes otherwise intelligent people dumb.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bwfVbB4Sk0&t=1s

(yt tags don't work for some reason)

For a guy who regularily debunks silly issues we all love to hate around here, plus runs a Youtube channel dedicated to reason, he sure makes an emotional, irrational and fallacity-filled argument. A guy who debunks god for a living invokes respect for the dead who voted for something he wants. Literarily:

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(they inexplicably work on this video, the URL is formulated differently)

There is a whole plethora of videos debunking homeopathy, irreducible complexity, miracles, Flat Earth, 9/11, crystal healing ... and now this, 'debunking' second referendum on the basis of "both sides lied", "have respect for the dead", "second referendum would end British democracy" and "1.4 million majority", among others.

He's also a Brexiteer, which might explain his 'debunking' of a second referendum. His reasoning seems to be off the shelf ERG rethoric for the most part:

https://www.patreon.com/posts/my-reasons-for-20257304

Including dousies like these:

"Over the last decade UK exports to European countries has reduced by nearly 10%."

2017 trade with EU was 274 billion pounds of exports and 341 billion pounds of imports. Back in 2007, those numbers were 194 billion pounds and 227 billion pounds, respectively - an increase of 30% in exports and 34% in imports. An increase of 30% is not a decrease of 10%. The relative importance of trade with EU fell, because trade with the rest of the world rose even faster but he sells that as a drop in exports to the EU.

https://researchbriefings.files.parl...1/CBP-7851.pdf

When Brexit comes up, a guy who runs a youtube channel "Rationality Rules" is unable to distinguish a drop in exports from a relative drop compared to other exports. Unbelievable.

I think Brexit would make a fascinating study subject in collective stupidity.

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Last edited by McHrozni; 15th April 2019 at 01:54 AM.
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Old 15th April 2019, 02:50 AM   #1560
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Another impact of Brexit. British Steel can no longer get free carbon permits from the EU and so its approaching the UK government for a loan.

Quote:
British Steel is seeking a £100m loan from the government in order to meet EU emission rules.

Previously, the company could have used EU-issued carbon credits to settle its 2018 pollution bill.

However, the steel maker has been affected by a European Union decision to suspend UK firms' access to free carbon permits until a Brexit withdrawal deal is ratified.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47921375
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