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Tags donald trump , political speculation

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Old 21st September 2019, 07:50 AM   #1
Trebuchet
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Trump wins bigly in 2020. What then?

Just a thought experiment, I hope.
Assume:
Trump has a solid win in both the EC and popular vote.
Republicans get to 60 Senators.
Republicans retake the House.
Republicans increase their control of governorships and state legislatures.

What happens?
Constitutional amendment to remove presidential term limits?
Selling off the National Parks?
Declaring war on Ukraine?
Ok, maybe those are ridiculous. Or not. What do you think might happen?
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Old 21st September 2019, 07:55 AM   #2
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Assuming the threat of impeachment/removal has subsided, I think there's a good chance he sells out the hard-core, true-believers to cut deals.
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Old 21st September 2019, 08:00 AM   #3
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I don't think even that scenario would automatically enable the Republicans to amend the Constitution, would it?

But suppose that the Republicans were able to pass an amendment ending term limits, that in itself would not be a problem. It was an amendment that introduced term limits in the first place.

I think if Trump wins bigly in 2020, it'll be a symptom of a very serious disease - an extremely crappy electorate as well as an extremely crappy electoral system.
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Old 21st September 2019, 08:09 AM   #4
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A solid win would require bigly expensive cheating. I doubt that Thrump and his henchies could refrain from embezzling most of the dirty money.

And the big guys don't like little guys cutting slices. There would be percussions.

I meant to say repercussions, but let it stand.
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Old 21st September 2019, 08:18 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Just a thought experiment, I hope.
Assume:
Trump has a solid win in both the EC and popular vote.
Republicans get to 60 Senators.
Republicans retake the House.
Republicans increase their control of governorships and state legislatures.

What happens?
Constitutional amendment to remove presidential term limits?
Selling off the National Parks?
Declaring war on Ukraine?
Ok, maybe those are ridiculous. Or not. What do you think might happen?
We might have a war of sorts with Iran. Very limited conflict or with North Korea. Again very limited conflict. The Economy would continue to be good to mediocre at worst. No mass job losses. America first attitude would still be in place.

There would be problems caused by America's Socialists and violence and vandalism and assaults and looting from groups like Antifa but they would be the only ones causing trouble.

There might be stricter enforcement of America's gun laws. For instance, gun shows might not be allowed to just sell a gun without a background check.
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Old 21st September 2019, 09:23 AM   #6
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More chipping away at democracy and minority rights, I expect.
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Old 21st September 2019, 10:01 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Just a thought experiment, I hope.
Assume:
Trump has a solid win in both the EC and popular vote.
Republicans get to 60 Senators.
Republicans retake the House.
Republicans increase their control of governorships and state legislatures.

What happens?
Constitutional amendment to remove presidential term limits?
Selling off the National Parks?
Declaring war on Ukraine?
Ok, maybe those are ridiculous. Or not. What do you think might happen?

It's inconceivable that Trump could win the popular vote. Do you think he would actually pick up votes from people who voted for Clinton last time? But it's certainly conceivable that he could win the Electoral College, the Repubs would keep the Senate, and maybe -- maybe -- they could take back the House. The immediate outcome would be that there would be no restraints on whatever Trump wanted to do: No investigations, no threat of impeachment, no challenge of unfit appointees. A Constitutional amendment would require approval of three-quarters of the states. That would be a little iffy. But he could literally do just about anything else and get away with it.

Related articles:
Quote:
Lawyers for President Trump argue that the president is immune from all criminal investigations in a new federal lawsuit seeking to block New York prosecutors from obtaining his tax returns.
https://www.salon.com/2019/09/21/tru...eturn-lawsuit/

And also:
Quote:
Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened not to leave office in 2021. During the 2016 presidential campaign Trump also threatened that he would not respect the outcome of the election if Hillary Clinton won. This is part of a much larger pattern of contempt for American democracy, the rule of law, and the U.S. Constitution by Donald Trump and his allies. He has threatened leading Democrats and other "enemies" with prison, attempted to silence and intimidate journalists, and has declared individuals and groups to be "treasonous" if they do not submit to his will.

Trump and his allies are already moving to delegitimate the 2020 presidential election by claiming that "illegal aliens" and "voter fraud" are part of a larger conspiracy by the Democrats and the news media who want to cause a recession to prevent him from being re-elected.
https://www.salon.com/2019/08/26/tru...him-seriously/

Last edited by Bob001; 21st September 2019 at 10:10 AM.
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Old 21st September 2019, 10:09 AM   #8
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Abortion rights would be gone for a generation, at least. I mean, we're not too far from that point as it is. If RBG is off the court while Trump is still president, it's as good as done.
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Old 21st September 2019, 10:17 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
What happens?
Constitutional amendment to remove presidential term limits?
Conservatives who talk about amending the constitution don't talk about removing term limits. They have very different priorities.

Quote:
Selling off the National Parks?
Trump is a populist. Why would he want to do that?

Quote:
Declaring war on Ukraine?
Oh... kay.

Quote:
Ok, maybe those are ridiculous.
Well, yeah.

I think it would end up much as his first term, as far as what he's trying to do, but maybe more success. So continuing trade tension with China, maybe more action on a wall with Mexico, increased sanctions on Iran, maybe repeal Obamacare, that sort of thing. The idea that he would spring something totally new doesn't really make sense.
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Old 21st September 2019, 11:01 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Trump is a populist. Why would he want to do that?
Trump is a populist on the campaign trail only. You can find no one more elitist than someone who grew up a millionaire and lives in a golden apartment in NYC.

*Psssh* "Trump is a populist."

As for why, it's the oldest reason in the world, and he's already done it once.

(Okay, he leased national park lands for various forms of oil and coal extraction. Still, not great for national park land.)
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Old 21st September 2019, 11:36 AM   #11
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If those hypotheticals became realities, we'd see just the same crap as now. A rightist revolution? Not likely, given Tramp's cowardice and, more importantly, his complete lack of ideas.

But: A Republican win would free much worse criminals than Benito himself. I would predict, if our nightmare comes true, that Trunk, like Musso, would become less and less relevant, and more and more a (very ugly) figurehead.

I doubt that anybody would bother to remove him.
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Old 21st September 2019, 11:45 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Trump is a populist on the campaign trail only. You can find no one more elitist than someone who grew up a millionaire and lives in a golden apartment in NYC.

*Psssh* "Trump is a populist."

As for why, it's the oldest reason in the world, and he's already done it once.

(Okay, he leased national park lands for various forms of oil and coal extraction. Still, not great for national park land.)
It wasn't national park land. It was public land. Do you understand the difference? Because it's important.
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Old 21st September 2019, 12:19 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
It wasn't national park land. It was public land. Do you understand the difference? Because it's important.

I doubt that itís important to Donnie.
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Old 21st September 2019, 12:30 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
I doubt that itís important to Donnie.
Since our aim is not to be ignorant in the same way as Trump, Zig's point is apt. Trump's administration did not allow leases of National Park lands, but something similar.

The issue is still significant, but it's not bad to correct misstatements.
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Old 21st September 2019, 12:46 PM   #15
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I'm sorry. Trump did lease out national lands and tried to sell off national monument land. My mistake.

Still, is it implausible that Trump would if he could, especially if Trump stood to gain personally from it?


Heh. I'm still laughing at the idea of Trump being a populist.
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Old 21st September 2019, 12:57 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Trump is a populist on the campaign trail only. You can find no one more elitist than someone who grew up a millionaire and lives in a golden apartment in NYC.

*Psssh* "Trump is a populist."

As for why, it's the oldest reason in the world, and he's already done it once.

(Okay, he leased national park lands for various forms of oil and coal extraction. Still, not great for national park land.)
Can you be a populist if you are unpopular in the election you won?
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Old 21st September 2019, 01:02 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
What do you think might happen?

The Democrats might finally get a clue?
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Old 21st September 2019, 01:03 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Mojo View Post
I doubt that itís important to Donnie.
But it's important to a lot of other people. Even if Donnie wanted to (which hasn't been established), even if there's a solid Republican majority in both houses, there would be too much public opposition to that happening within a national park. People care about national parks more than they care about other public land. That's kind of the point of national parks.
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Old 21st September 2019, 01:09 PM   #19
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Republicans will write articles about the demise of the Democratic party, and will look foolish when the Donks come back strong in the mid-term election of 2022. Democrats will wail and moan about this meaning the end of the world, and will look foolish when Trump hands over the keys to the White House to his successor, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
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Old 21st September 2019, 01:11 PM   #20
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Trump wins bigly in 2020. What then?

I stay continuously in an alcoholic stupor until 2025.
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Old 21st September 2019, 04:05 PM   #21
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The American electorate loses whatever credibility it has left.
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Old 21st September 2019, 04:51 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Trump wins bigly in 2020. What then?

I stay continuously in an alcoholic stupor until 2025.
You forgot the third term!
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Old 21st September 2019, 05:42 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
You forgot the third term!
DAMN YOU!!
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Old 21st September 2019, 05:46 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Trump wins bigly in 2020. What then?

I stay continuously in an alcoholic stupor until 2025.
Looking on the bright side, I see.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 21st September 2019, 05:46 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
What do you think might happen?
Several million deaths around the world from apoplexy at excessive laughter.

Ivanka for 2024.
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Old 21st September 2019, 05:55 PM   #26
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The optimists believe Trump will only win bigly in 2020.

The pessimists believe he will win bigly in 2024 as well.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 21st September 2019, 07:28 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
The optimists believe Trump will only win bigly in 2020.

The pessimists believe he will win bigly in 2024 as well.
You've got me nailed on that one!
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Old 21st September 2019, 07:38 PM   #28
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I'd have to turn off the news for the next four years. Right now I'm often just short of apoplexy.
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Old 21st September 2019, 08:34 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Just a thought experiment, I hope.
Assume:
Trump has a solid win in both the EC and popular vote.
Republicans get to 60 Senators.
Republicans retake the House.
Republicans increase their control of governorships and state legislatures.

What happens?
Constitutional amendment to remove presidential term limits?
Selling off the National Parks?
Declaring war on Ukraine?
Ok, maybe those are ridiculous. Or not. What do you think might happen?
A constitutional convention. And once done, be prepared to not recognize the USA.
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Old 21st September 2019, 08:59 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
A constitutional convention. And once done, be prepared to not recognize the USA.
Followed by the Second American CIvil War.
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Old 21st September 2019, 09:01 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Republicans will write articles about the demise of the Democratic party, and will look foolish when the Donks come back strong in the mid-term election of 2022. Democrats will wail and moan about this meaning the end of the world, and will look foolish when Trump hands over the keys to the White House to his successor, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Your inability to see why Trump is a clear and presetne danget to US Democracy is incredible.
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Old 21st September 2019, 09:57 PM   #32
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The implication of this is in the Senate election they win all the seats they currently hold plus win 7 of the following

Alabama
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New mexico
Oregon
Rhode island
Virginia

...seven.

If the party was that dang popular, they probably wouldn't bother with Constitutional amendments. They would be too busy just passing the easy stuff they want done.
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Old 21st September 2019, 10:08 PM   #33
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The Census data would be so twisted as to significantly disenfranchise California and other Blue States in favor of smaller Red States, effectively gerrymandering the entire country.
BTW, this might happen anyway.
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Old 21st September 2019, 10:55 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The Census data would be so twisted as to significantly disenfranchise California and other Blue States in favor of smaller Red States, effectively gerrymandering the entire country.
BTW, this might happen anyway.
That would be pretty hard to do.
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Old 21st September 2019, 11:03 PM   #35
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A well timed conflict lite with Iran or Venezuela or some such in the fall and come November he could easily win convincingly. And what then? Well, the same but even worse. Half the electorate is beyond reason and their party is beyond ethics. AprŤs lui, le dťluge.
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Old 21st September 2019, 11:07 PM   #36
The Great Zaganza
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
That would be pretty hard to do.
unfortunately, no, it's very easy for the President to do.

It is established law that the President does more than just pass on the Census Data to the States - he has some leeway to interpret it.
That was the case in the past when counting where Soldiers Abroad had their Home State.
Trump could use data on Illegal Immigration (from the Census or other sources) to claim that California is getting too many seats - and it would be up to a very Red Supreme Court to disagree with him.
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Old 21st September 2019, 11:09 PM   #37
dudalb
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If Democracy goes under in the US, the undertow will take democracy down in quite a few countries....including some in Europe. Those taking a sort of snide joy at the thought of the downfall of the US should remember that.
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Old 21st September 2019, 11:10 PM   #38
dudalb
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
unfortunately, no, it's very easy for the President to do.

It is established law that the President does more than just pass on the Census Data to the States - he has some leeway to interpret it.
That was the case in the past when counting where Soldiers Abroad had their Home State.
Trump could use data on Illegal Immigration (from the Census or other sources) to claim that California is getting too many seats - and it would be up to a very Red Supreme Court to disagree with him.
So it's going to be armed resistence, then?
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Old 21st September 2019, 11:26 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Your inability to see why Trump is a clear and presetne danget to US Democracy is incredible.
You've heard the fable about the boy who cried wolf. Well, I have now been politically aware during the re-election battles for four Republican presidents: Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr, and Bush Jr. And during each of those re-election efforts, I was assured by liberals of my acquaintance that this was an existential vote. Hell, I worked on the McGovern campaign (extremely minor role), so it's not like I needed any encouragement. And Nixon was re-elected and Reagan was re-elected and Bush Jr. was re-elected, but somehow the republic survived.
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Old 22nd September 2019, 12:02 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
And Nixon was re-elected
An resigned shortly after to avoid Impeachment.

Quote:
and Reagan was re-elected
And avoided indictment by the onset of Alzheimer's. He also left behind a ruined economy that still had not recovered from the damage that was done.

Quote:
and Bush Jr. was re-elected
And left the country in two major wars, massive debt, the second largest rescission in history, and an economy that took most of the next eight years to repair.

Quote:
but somehow the republic survived.
Given the damage that these guys did, and it's on going effects that are still being felt nearly 40 years, and given that Trump is considerably worse than either Bush or Reagan, you really want to take that risk?
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